Human Behavior

Graphics: COVID-19 is bad now. According to many projections, it’s going to get worse – The Boston Globe

Modelers who are trying to look into the future have sketched out a wide variety of scenarios, from the optimistic to the horrific. But the general gist, said Alessandro Vespignani, professor of physics, computer science, and health science at Northeastern University, is that things are getting worse.

So what can we expect over the next few weeks? See the graphics below to better understand where we could be headed.

A key forecast says cases and deaths will stay high over the next several weeks.

An ensemble forecast from a lab at the University of Massachusetts Amherst collects and combines a number of models in order to draw on their collective wisdom. It foresees US weekly cases generally continuing at high levels, and weekly deaths gradually growing.

The onslaught of cases and deaths will take their toll. The cumulative number of US confirmed and probable coronavirus deaths will climb to about 317,000 by Dec. 26, the forecast says.

The UMass labs forecast, which it compiles weekly and shares with the CDC, only covers a four-week window to make it more accurate. This forecast covers the period from Nov. 28 to Dec. 26.

Any individual model might have a misfire from time to time so making an ensemble model is a way to catch those fluctuations and always have some solid, coherent forecast that is emerging from the consensus of the various different models, said Vespignani, whose own model is one of those factored into the ensemble forecast.

At the moment, the model is calling for action. Its telling us we need to do something, said Vespignani.

Massachusetts cases are expected to remain high, and deaths are expected to gradually rise

Massachusetts has been hit less hard than some other states. But it is in the midst of a second surge, and on Wednesday and Thursday reported its two highest one-day case totals so far, raising questions about where the state is headed.

The UMass model for Massachusetts calls for weekly cases to tick up slightly and plateau, and for weekly death counts to slowly grow.

The model predicts the state will tally around 11,656 confirmed and probable deaths by Dec. 26. As of Wednesday, the state had tallied 10,824 confirmed and probable deaths.

The ensemble model, it should be noted, was slow to catch on to the current wave of cases and deaths, and researchers emphasize that the actual numbers could range higher or lower than their predictions.

Vespignani said there is always an important footnote to models, particularly ones that attempt to look farther into the future: Human behavior can be key to what the future will hold.

With a weather forecast, he said, The winter storm will not care about the forecast. It will do its job.

For an epidemic, its different, he said. When people are forewarned, they can take precautions to keep themselves from becoming infected, and the future that the forecast predicted can be avoided.

The moment you project the next few weeks a drastic increase in cases, people will act, he said. Forecasts are a call to arms to change the trajectory of the epidemic.

Martin Finucane can be reached at martin.finucane@globe.com.

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Graphics: COVID-19 is bad now. According to many projections, it's going to get worse - The Boston Globe

Human Behavior

Interest Rates And Yield Curve Control, Part 4 – Seeking Alpha

In Part 4 of our series on interest rates and yield curve control, we will examine two charts and two related tables to help explain yield curve control and implications for the Treasurys market. The first three parts are available here:

The first chart and table will depict certain yield curves as of September 30, 2019. We start here because this date falls prior to the pandemic's impact on global monetary policies. Chart 2 and Table 2 are as of November 30, 2020, and are assembled from the same data sources and depict the same yield curves but after the US election and after the announcement of forthcoming vaccines. We're assuming that markets have made most of the adjustments for the COVID shock and its aftermath and the US election cycle. We acknowledge that a January 5 political event could alter these charts. We plan on a part 5 and will attempt to capture any significant changes in it.

The visible difference between the charts is dramatic but needs a basis of comparison or a reference. That is why we also include the tables to help clarify the story. For the tables we're building on the seminal work of Robert D. Laurent, published in a paper entitled "An interest rate-based indicator of monetary policy" (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, 1988). We're showing the difference (spread) between short-term and long-term policy interest rates in order to make clear the differences in yield curve slopes, so that we may compare various currencies and their central bank-managed yield curves. Notice how the US had the flattest yield curve in Table 1 and now has the steepest, as depicted in Table 2. Also notice how the euro and yen curves are essentially unchanged. Please remember that Laurent's work argues that the slope of the yield curve indicates the degree of monetary stimulus. If Laurent is correct, the US has become the most simulative from earlier being the least simulative while Japan and the eurozone have accomplished no additional stimulus with their added QE. Also notice that on September 30, 2019, China's was the most stimulative yield curve slope.

We could add other currencies, as we did in the early part of this series, but doing so here wouldn't add benefit for the reader. Including other currencies would only confirm what you can already see in these charts and tables. We plan to develop the other currencies in part 5. And we plan to show alternate ways to evaluate the slopes of these yield curves.

Here is the first chart and table series. Remember, the date selected is September 30, 2019 (using closing price data). At that time, the COVID pandemic was unknown. Monetary policy worldwide was on what folks thought to be a predictable path, and the economies of the world were on forecast tracks that shared a broad consensus. The impacts of tariffs and protectionism (including a tentative phase 1 trade deal) were assumed to be embedded in the market-based prices revealed in the September 30, 2019, chart and table. Markets were pricing in an expected continuation of the Trump administration policies into a Trump second term.

Chart 1. Yield Curve Control, September 30, 2019

Table 1. Yields, September 30, 2019

9/30/2019

Curve Name

US Treasury

US AAA MUNI

CNY

JPY

EUR

Short-Term T-Bill Rate (3M)

1.93

1.254

2.426

-0.301

-0.721

Long-Term Bond Rate (30YR)

2.114

2.11

3.77

0.331

-0.06

Difference

0.184

0.856

1.344

0.632

0.661

Please note that we have inserted the yield curve from World War 2 into these charts as a reference. It is not in the tables. We include that WW2 yield curve in this series because WW2 was the only time the Federal Reserve used its absolute monetary power to control the slope of the entire yield curve. The Fed did so by maintaining a "cap" on the interest rates at all maturities. The Fed might have permitted those rates to go lower than the cap. We do not know if they would have done so; that is a counterfactual. Interest rates during the WW2 era never exhibited downward pressures, so the cap was maintained for four years, and the rates never changed.

In Chart 1 note the WW2 yield curve (purple). Also notice the zero yield line (black). Those two lines are references for you. Let's discuss each.

In World War 2, the Federal Reserve instituted total yield curve control shortly after the Pearl Harbor attack. From 1942 through 1946, interest rates in the United States were essentially unchanged. For further background see our April 7 commentary, "WW2 versus WWC: The Doolittle Moment". Our references for this data include the famous Friedman-Schwartz treatise, A Monetary History of the United States: 1867-1960, and the extraordinary History of Interest Rates, by Sidney Homer. My personal view is that both of those treatises are required reading for anyone engaged in professional bond management and advising about the securities markets.

During the World War 2 era, the Fed maintained an unlimited bid at the very short end of the yield curve. The 90-day Treasury bill yield was 3/8ths of 1% and never changed. The rest of the yield curve was "managed" by the Fed to maintain control. Throughout that period, the Fed never had to face the prospect of rates falling below the cap. Global forces worked to avoid the "problem" of rates going lower than that. Remember that the world was on a gold standard in those days and that international flows were disrupted by war.

Now we have a different set of circumstances. All currencies are unanchored to gold. They float against each other. This is true whether the float is unrestricted or "dirty" due to intervention by a government or its central bank.

Here are Chart 2 and Table 2. Compare with the corresponding chart above and the dramatic shift is easily seen. Remember the World War 2 curve is the only constant and there for your reference.

Chart 2. Yield Curve Control, November 30, 2020

Table 2. Yields, November 30, 2020

Think about the yield curves that you see. There is the US dollar block, anchored by the US Treasury curve. And there is the euro block, which has its shorter-term anchor in negative rates, and the yen block, which also uses a negative-rate anchor. And there is China, the world's second-largest economy, which is in the early stages of opening up its finances and expanding a foreign footprint in monetary issues. Remember, China is just getting started. It has the world's second-largest domestic bond market, the onshore market. It is just beginning the process of developing an offshore or international bond market. We have also included the American AAA municipal bond curve, since it represents the highest-grade bond issuance in a $4 trillion market.

Those regions and countries (and their currencies) that are practicing full yield curve control include Japan (yen), Europe (euro), China (yuan), and others that we have mentioned earlier in this series but are not showing on the charts in Part 4. Note that in the modern day, it is not necessary to cap all maturities on the yield curve to achieve control. Today's unanchored fiat-currency financial world is quite different from the one that existed during and after World War 2.

In order to achieve yield curve control, it is not necessary for a central bank to anchor every maturity. The bank actually needs to anchor only two points on the yield curve. Then market agents will use forward-rate trading adjustments to stabilize the rest of the curve. The eurozone has now anchored two points on the yield curve with its policies of tiering and TLTRO. Japan has similarly anchored two maturities at two different rates. China is evolving in the same direction by internal control of interest rates in the onshore bond market. And the political shift in Hong Kong will now propel China into a more global role, as Hong Kong is its conduit to global financial channels. Beijing has adopted yield curve control for the yuan. For example, China recently issued a three-year-maturity bond with a rate above 3%. China has successfully sold a euro-denominated bond at negative interest rates. (See "China Borrows at Negative Rates for the First Time").

We believe that China will establish increasing credibility in global finance by implementing yield curve control. And it will demonstrate no default risk by never missing a payment. The yuan will have to adjust against other currencies in two ways. One adjustment mechanism will be the decisions of the Chinese government in its currency exchange-rate policy. The other will be the adjustment made by global market agents as they evolve expectations of China's behavior. Chinese policy makers are very well trained in monetary policy and fully understand what they have to do to gain credibility and to establish China in the global financial system.

That leaves only the United States practicing no formal yield-curve-control policy. However, we expect the Federal Reserve to use the weighted average maturity (WAM) method of establishing yield curve control. See our recent commentary on the Fed's path. The comparison of slopes or spreads demonstrates that the US dollar already has a term structure that is somewhat parallel to those of Japan and the eurozone. This happens because the global use of USD derivatives pressures those yield curves into a parallel structure.

US monetary policy anchors only from the short-term policy interest rate. The rest of US rates are adjusted by buyers and sellers in the global marketplace of US Treasury debt, and all other US debt tiers are derived from the Treasury curve. We have inserted the AAA municipal curve in our charts to demonstrate that alignment. Please note that this is the American curve of tax-free sovereign-state debt and is limited to those states with a AAA credit rating. Also note that global investors ignore the tax policy of the United States because it doesn't apply to them. Thus US Treasury interest is fully taxable to Americans while municipal bond interest is not taxed. Meanwhile, the interest rates are nearly the same. The tax on US Treasurys makes selected municipal bonds a bargain for an American taxpayer who is willing to exploit that opportunity.

As we have described in parts 1, 2, and 3 of this series, the influences on yield curves are global and employ currency hedges with the short-term rate and derivatives at longer maturities. Thus we can use our previous work to estimate that the US Treasury yield curve will eventually stabilize at or near an alignment with the other yield curves of the world. In time they will all approach a parallel term structure. If they don't, market agents will seize the arbitrage available to drive those rates into close alignment.

By this method we can project that the interest rates in the US Treasury curve are nearing that stable alignment. With a 10-year Treasury yield of about 1% (100 basis points), we can see that the alignment is close to completion. The same is true for other maturities. Could the 10-year note yield a full 1.5%? Yes, of course. Could it rise to 2%? Maybe, but it would take a lot of adjustment in the global derivative structures and significant economic outlook changes to get it there.

In other words, the Fed doesn't have to worry too much about an interest rate cap, as it did in the World War 2 era. And the Fed will see market agents create changes in the yield curve slope as the US yield curve aligns with those across the rest of the world, where full yield curve control is already in place.

The differentials among the yield curves of the world will be driven, in part, by the currency futures market's collective opinion about the foreign exchange ratios to come. We expect that situation to become the new normal in global interest rates as long as the major central banks of the world remain in their highly expansive mode, with stimulus-oriented policies. The most important player now is China. It has the skills and size and determination to achieve global stature in monetary affairs. And Chinese interest rates are now the highest among the major players in the world. As the Chinese offshore bond market opens up, the impact of China will become more and more visible.

Many politicians would bash China, and we see the blame-game politics of China bashing playing out every day. But the Chinese leadership is very patient, in our opinion. It will make every decision in a methodical manner and in China's best interest. It is not likely to engage in bullying or shrill politics. It doesn't have to.

Therefore, we conclude that China's default risk is near zero. The Chinese currency, the yuan, will gradually become more and more desired as an additional reserve holding. Those trading partners who are expanding their terms of trade with China will be the ones who enlarge their yuan reserves.

So, if yuan reserve usage expands in the post-Hong Kong-takeover era, which currencies are likely to be most at risk? That is the most difficult of questions. The obvious answers are the largest currency (the US dollar) and the second largest (the euro), but other currencies are also vulnerable, and exchange-rate changes are notoriously hard to forecast in both magnitude and timing. Here's a short news clip about China and Indonesia: Those two countries are moving from settling most of their trade in US dollars to settling the trade in the Chinese and Indonesian currencies. Hat tip to Paul Schulte for the YouTube link. Let's just examine this one item for a second. Both countries end up needing more of the other country's currency as a reserve. Neither country needs as many US dollar reserves as it did before this change in settlement payments. Please remember that this is just one example. Also remember that the original reason for maintaining reserves of other countries' currencies is to facilitate settlements of terms of trade.

In summary, we've delivered a four-part series to show the sequence of elements that leads to yield curve control and the influence of the derivative mechanism now at work in the world as pandemic-driven global central bank activity unfolds. It is impossible to know how long these trends will last, as the pandemic's effects are going to be determined by science and medicine and human behavior and the resulting rate of disease spread and deaths. But we do expect that the massive global monetary expansion will be with us for many years. Right now, every major central bank in the world is on the "easy" side when you measure easy by the size of the balance sheet of the central bank. We do not expect that policy stance to change for at least several years, if not longer.

We at Cumberland hope this series has been helpful to readers. It helps explain to our actively managed bond portfolio clients why we are engaged in barbell strategies now and why we think that the 40-year bull market in US Treasury notes and bonds is coming to an end. We're working on part 5.

We will close with a list of suggested additional readings that may add to the discussion.

Original post

Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.

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Interest Rates And Yield Curve Control, Part 4 - Seeking Alpha

Human Behavior

Mental Health Related Movies Receive Good Reviews – Theravive

In a recent study, researchers surveyed 200 movies released between 1977 and 2019 with content about mental illness and found box office returns were higher than average. Those same movies received 15% of Oscar nominations during the time period. While the article still needs peer-review, the findings show that we, as a society, are doing a better job of talking about mental health.

Jolene Caufield, MS with Healthy Howard,agrees with the implications of the findings, that mental health-related media is a byproduct of the public's awareness of the sensitive subject of psychological illnesses. The cinematic media has a reputation for illustrating human behavior and the circumstances surrounding it, said Caulfield. It's only fitting that since the world is entering a destigmatizing era, the media will offer their own version to capture audience interest. This era and the landscape of our current cinema allows for more non-subjective portrayals with improved insights about the issue.

Dr. Michael G. Wetter, PsyD, adds that movies that pertain to mental health issues are more popular and successful because it is a subject that most people can relate to in some way. He explains, It taps into our own experience in dealing with emotions, conflict, and interpersonal relationships. Watching themes associated with mental health play out in a narrative may help us feel that resolution is possible; it provides the opportunity to have an emotional connection without anything required in return.

Because they imply resolution and healing is possible, these movies also give a way to explore and gain a deeper understanding of other people and why they do what they do. Jason Drake LCSW-Ssays movies can provide a safe space to try to understand the struggles that we may experience ourselves and why we do what we do. For a person who is insecure, leaving a movie theater after watching someone portray and conquer insecurity gives hope. For someone battling depression, to see the inner experience shared so precisely byanother, helps that person feel not so alone. We connect with the characters on the screen and project our struggles onto them. In times of difficulty, we get to feel what it feelslike to overcome, if only for that moment. Movies may inspire hope which hope can lead to action.

But writer and director Ryan Lambert has doubts about whether the mental health content is what makes these movies do so well. He wonders if they receive critical acclaim more so than other topics simply because of the subject itself, not any higher level of filmmaking ability. These social issue movies are perceived as better because they are about important ideas, said Lambert, rather than being judged as better on their own terms. Media and award institutions like the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences eat up these prestige pictures, showering them with praise based on their ideological stance instead of their aesthetic value.

Joy Cheriel Brown, a filmmaker with Third Person Omniscient Productions, shares experience with psychosis when she was 18 years old. She doubted whether she would herself again or accomplish her screenwriting dreams. Brown said, I vowed that if I ever figured it out, I would make a film about it to help other young people, which I did with my short film, N.O.S., which sold to ShortsTV this year. For many people, mental illness is stigmatized and they dont understand it. People either relate because they also have a mental illness, or people are curious about it and it fascinates them because it scares them that it could happen to anyone. The success of films about mental illness is not a fluke. Much of my work focuses on it because Im in a unique position of actually living with schizoaffective disorder and I can advocate for those who live with mental illness, and educate those others who dont understand it.

Whether movies are truly top-notch or rated well because of their subject is up for debate, but as more people, like Brown, share their personal experiences, it keeps mental health at the forefront of peoples minds.Jay Shifman, host of the Choose Your Strugglepodcast notes that we all want to feel accepted.Shifman says, stigma still exists around things that are not only perfectly normal but relatively common so people seek other ways to have their questions answered and feel that theyre not different or strange. Simply knowing something is okay enough to cover in a movie can decrease feelings of isolation.

Categories: Mass Media , Mental Health Awareness | Tags: entertainment

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Mental Health Related Movies Receive Good Reviews - Theravive

Human Behavior

The Real Reason Why Drivers Are Convinced They Can’t Do Without Cars – Streetsblog New York

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The pandemic has made car addiction three times worse.

Drivers are valuing their access to a private vehicle during the pandemic more than three times as much as they did before COVID-19 but they can be persuaded to get around without a car with simple changes to incentivize other modes, a new study finds.

To understand why some Americans still choose to pay to maintain a private vehicle even when robust public transportation networks are right outside their door, researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology surveyed around 1,000 people each in the transit-rich cities of Washington, Chicago, and Seattle. (They also spoke with 1,000 people in mostly-car-dominated Dallas, though for the record, its light rail system boasts surprisingly high ridership.) Then the researchers offered the subjects a series of hypothetical cash bribes in randomized amounts to give up their cars for up to a year and also asked them whether theyd take the same deal if theyd been offered thoseincentives prior to the pandemic.

And the offers werent limited to cold, hard cash alone. Later in the survey, the researchers tempted respondents with access to a free, ubiquitously available ride-hailing service in exchange for giving up their private vehicles essentially, a gratis private car service that might sometimes require a very brief wait.

What the researchers found was astonishing: Even prior to the pandemic, drivers said theyd need a whopping $11,200 on average to entice them to give up immediate, 24/7 access to their personal cars. Even if they had a free, high-quality e-taxi at their beck and call, the respondents said theyd need around $6,500 in compensation to give up their car ownership. And during COVID-19, they said theyd need $3,300 every single month thats $39,600 over the course of 12 months just to say goodbye to an object that already costs the average U.S. drivers $9,300 a year just to finance, fuel, insure, store, and maintain.

Put another way: weve created a society thats so paralyzingly car-dependent (and so convinced of the myth of COVID-19 risks on public transit, not to mention taxis and other modes) that the average American earning the median income of $68,703 would need a cash payout of the equivalent of 71 percent of her total annual pay in order to even considergiving up a private vehicle during a year-long pandemic.

And even without a virus, that same would-be car-free commuter would still ask for a cash payout equivalent to the cost of an average years worth ofgroceries,health insurance, andelectric bills, plus a round trip flight to Paris.

How option value helps decode the psychology of American car dependenceThe finding is a fascinating example of how human behavior is shaped by the power of option value a wonky economics term that refers to the dollar value that people place on having the option to use a good or service if they chose to do so, as distinct from the money someone will pay toactuallyuse that thing.

The term is usually applied to stuff like a residents willingness to pay a tax to maintain a local park he or she might only visit once in a blue moon, but option value is a powerful and under-examined feature of consumer psychology, too. And it definitely helps explain drivers willingness to spend an average of 9.2 percent of their household income on a hunk of metal that sits parked 95 percent of the time and why, during the age of mass quarantines, work from home, and historically low vehicle miles travelled, they value their wheels even more.

When we isolated how much drivers valued car ownership on its own, [independent of the value they placed on actually being able to drive that car], we found that it was about $6,500 in a typical year before the pandemic, said Joanna Moody, research program manager for MITs Mobility Systems Center and one of the authors on the study. That means only 58 percent of the perceived value of car ownership actually comes from ownership itself not use.

So if drivers dont value their cars simply because theyre useful and often, outright necessary to navigate our auto-dependent cities, why do they insist on pouring money down the gas tank, even if they live in a transit-rich city like D.C.? Moody says that option value as well as intangible factors like social status, privacy, and emotional and symbolic connections to car ownership all play a role and right now, the terrifying uncertainty of the pandemic is a major factor, too.

Car ownership is a security blanket, Moody says. The more risk-averse we are, and the more unpredictable our travel needs are, the more attractive the flexibility, reliability, and control that comes with car ownership becomes. Especially right now, people are asking themselves: what if I need to get to the hospital at a moments notice? What if transit service is cut because of the pandemic and I cant make it to work? Its really about having the option of being able to take the car when they might need it thats so important to people even if they dont actually do it much at all.

How to lower the value of easy driving

Of course, even without a major public health disaster, our car-dominated places essentially force Americans to maintain a constant state of disaster-preparedness hemorrhaging money to maintain massive overkill vehicles that can meet our every conceivable mobility need, despite what they cost our families and our society.

But if our cities had networks of strong mass and shared transportation options that could collectively make us feel confident we could get anywhere we need to go with comfort and ease, experts think could help level the playing field.

Image: PinterestUltimately, how we make our transportation lifestyle choices isnt just about our day-to-day travel, Moody said. Its about those extremes, those What if scenarios: What if I need to travel somewhere further away for a weekend? What if I get sick suddenly and need to visit a clinic?

Of course, the lesson of option value isnt that we simply need to write drivers checks to choose more sustainable ways to get around. Moody saysIts more about making all other modes more convenient and attractive in every way and that includes land-use reforms that put both basic anddesirable destinations within easy reach by foot, bike or transit, rather than simply making that bus ride to your far-flung workplace a tiny bit faster or cheaper.

In the longer term, its really about land-use planning shaping our transportation systems to be less car-dependent in a comprehensive way, Moody said. For the majority of Americans, buying a car is a rational choice, and thats because weve built the system to be that wayOur study focused on the value we place on car ownership and car use, but we also looked at how people valued other urban mobility options in their cities, and each of the alternative modes were valued at under a $100 each or less. Thats transit access, ride-hailing, bike share, scootershare everything. Were a long way from providing a package of transportation alternatives in cities that, together, give consumers the same value as the private car.

Fortunately, wecan raise the option value on sustainable travel by improving service quality and coverage and even truly revolutionary public investments in other modes would be hell of a lot cheaper than continuing to subsidize driving like we do now. Andwith countless human lives and the fate of the planet at stake, we must do everything we can.

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The Real Reason Why Drivers Are Convinced They Can't Do Without Cars - Streetsblog New York

Genetics

Experiences with offering pro bono medical genetics services in the West Indies: Benefits to patients, physicians, and the community – DocWire News

This article was originally published here

Am J Med Genet C Semin Med Genet. 2020 Dec 4. doi: 10.1002/ajmg.c.31871. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

We describe our experiences with organizing pro bono medical genetics and neurology outreach programs on several different resource-limited islands in the West Indies. Due to geographic isolation, small population sizes, and socioeconomic disparities, most Caribbean islands lack medical services for managing, diagnosing, and counseling individuals with genetic disorders. From 2015 to 2019, we organized 2-3 clinics per year on various islands in the Caribbean. We also organized a week-long clinic to provide evaluations for children suspected of having autism spectrum disorder. Consultations for over 100 different individuals with suspected genetic disorders were performed in clinics or during home visits following referral by locally registered physicians. When possible, follow-up visits were attempted. When available and appropriate, clinical samples were shipped to collaborating laboratories for molecular analysis. Laboratory tests included karyotyping, cytogenomic microarray analysis, exome sequencing, triplet repeat expansion testing, blood amino acid level determination, biochemical assaying, and metabolomic profiling. We believe that significant contributions to healthcare by genetics professionals can be made even if availability is limited. Visiting geneticists may help by providing continuing medical education seminars. Clinical teaching rounds help to inform local physicians regarding the management of genetic disorders with the aim of generating awareness of genetic conditions. Even when only periodically available, a visiting geneticist may benefit affected individuals, their families, their local physicians, and the community at large.

PMID:33274544 | DOI:10.1002/ajmg.c.31871

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Experiences with offering pro bono medical genetics services in the West Indies: Benefits to patients, physicians, and the community - DocWire News

Genetics

Viewpoint: Genetics and AI have launched an agricultural revolution. But ‘blind techno-optimism’ could have harmful consequences – Genetic Literacy…

Depending on who you listen to, artificial intelligence may either free us from monotonous labour and unleash huge productivity gains, or create a dystopia of mass unemployment and automated oppression. In the case of farming, some researchers, business people and politiciansthink the effects of AI and other advanced technologies are so great they are spurring a fourth agricultural revolution.

Given the potentially transformative effects of upcoming technology on farming positive and negative its vital that wepause andreflect before the revolution takes hold. Itmust work for everyone, whether it be farmers (regardless of their size or enterprise), landowners, farm workers, rural communities or the wider public. Yet, in arecently published studyled by the researcher Hannah Barrett, we found that policymakers and the media and policymakers are framing the fourth agricultural revolution as overwhelmingly positive, without giving much focus to the potential negative consequences.

The first agricultural revolution occurred when humans started farming around 12,000 years ago. The second was the reorganization of farmland from the 17th century onwards that followed the end of feudalism in Europe. And the third (also known as the green revolution) was the introduction of chemical fertilizers, pesticides and new high-yield crop breeds alongside heavy machinery in the 1950s and 1960s.

The fourth agricultural revolution, much like thefourth industrial revolution, refers to the anticipated changes from new technologies, particularly theuse of AIto make smarter planning decisions and power autonomous robots. Such intelligent machines could be used for growing and picking crops, weeding, milking livestock and distributing agrochemicalsvia drone. Other farming-specific technologies include new types ofgene editingto develop higher yielding, disease-resistant crops;vertical farms; andsynthetic lab-grown meat.

These technologies are attractinghuge amountsof funding and investmentin the quest to boost food production while minimizing further environmental degradation. This might, in part, be related to positive media coverage.Our researchfound that UK coverage of new farming technologies tends to be optimistic, portraying them as key to solving farming challenges.

However, many previous agricultural technologies were also greeted with similar enthusiasm before leading to controversy later on, such as with the firstgenetically modified cropsand chemicals such as the now-bannedpesticide DDT. Given wider controversies surrounding emergent technologies likenanotechnologyanddriverless cars, unchecked or blind techno-optimism is unwise.

We mustnt assume that all of these new farming technologies will be adopted without overcoming certain barriers. Precedent tells us that benefits are unlikely to be spread evenly across society and that some people will lose out. We need to understand who might lose andwhat we can doabout it, and ask wider questions such as whether new technologies will actually deliver as promised.

Robotic milking of cows provides a good example. In our research, a farmer told us that using robots had improved his work-life balance and allowed a disabled farm worker to avoid dextrous tasks on the farm. But they had also created a different kind of stress due to the resulting information overload and the perception that the farmer needed to be monitoring data 24/7.

TheNational Farmers Union(NFU) argues that new technologiescould attractyounger, more technically skilled entrants to an ageing workforce. Such breakthroughs could enable a wider range of people to engage in farming by eliminating the back-breaking stereotypes through greater use of machinery.

But existing farm workers at risk of being replaced by a machine or whose skills are unsuited to a new style of farming will inevitably be less excited by the prospect of change. And theymay not enjoybeing forced to spend less time working outside, becoming increasingly reliant on machines instead of their own knowledge.

There are also potentialpower inequalitiesin this new revolution. Our research found that some farmers were optimistic about a high-tech future. But others wondered whether those with less capital, poor broadband availability and IT skills, and access to advice on how to use the technology would be able to benefit.

History suggests technology companies and larger farm businesses are often the winners of this kind of change, and benefits dont always trickle down to smaller family farms. In the context of the fourth agricultural revolution, this could mean farmers not owning or being able to fully accessthe datagathered on their farms by new technologies. Or reliance on companies to maintain increasingly important and complex equipment.

The controversy surrounding GM crops (which are created by inserting DNA from other organisms) provides a frank reminder that there is no guarantee that new technologies will be embraced by the public. A similar backlash could occur if the public perceive gene editing (which instead involves making small, controlled changes to a living organisms DNA) as tantamount to GM. Proponents ofwearable technology for livestockclaim they improve welfare, but the public might see the use of such devices as treatinganimals like machines.

Instead of blind optimism, we need to identify where benefits and disadvantages of new agricultural technology will occur and for whom. This process must include a wide range of people to help create society-wideresponsible visionsfor the future of farming.

The NFUhas said the fourth agricultural revolution is exciting as well as a bit scary but then the two often go together. It is time to discuss the scary aspects with the same vigor as the exciting part.

David Rose is the Elizabeth Creak Associate Professor of Agricultural Innovation and Extension at the University of Reading. Find David on Twitter @d_christianrose

Charlotte-Anne Chivers is a research assistant at the Countryside and Community Research Institute at the University of Gloucestershire, working primarily on the EU-funded SPRINT and SoilCare projects. Find Charlotte-Anne on Twitter @cachivers

A version of this article was originally posted at the Conversation and has been reposted here with permission. The Conversation can be found on Twitter @ConversationUS

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Viewpoint: Genetics and AI have launched an agricultural revolution. But 'blind techno-optimism' could have harmful consequences - Genetic Literacy...

Genetics

New Generation Genetics Bulls Lead the Way Following the Genetic Evaluations in December – Hoard’s Dairyman

The information below has been supplied by dairy marketers and other industry organizations. It has not been edited, verified or endorsed by Hoards Dairyman.

Following the release of the December 2020 genetic evaluations, bulls from New Generation Genetics proven and genomic bulls ranked at or near the top for Milk, Components, Type, Udder Composite, Mobility, Fertility, DPR, Productive Life, NM$, PPR, & Profitability.

BMG Lust GET LUCKY held his spot as the breeds #1 proven bull for milk and protein pounds at a remarkable +2578M, +57P, and +56F to go along with it. He remains in the top 10 Proven bulls ranking #3 at +146PPR.

Hilltop Acres B DAREDEVIL added nearly 100 daughters to his proof and continues his reign as the #1 proven type bull in the Brown Swiss breed at +0.80 and an exceptional udder composite of +1.22.

Jo-Lane Dario HAMPTON, the #2 proven PPR bull at 149, continues to create profitable cows through his outstanding health traits and daughter fertility with +5.8PL, +2.66SCS and +1.7DPR. He also ranks #2 for Net Merit and #2 for productive life.

Switzer Tals Pyssli DARIO, the sire of HAMPTON, claimed his title as the top proven PPR, Net Merit and productive life bull in the breed at +161PPR, +480NM$ and +6.1PL. He also provides great production at +968M and +40P.

La Rainbow Sweet SALSA ETV *TM ranks #2 for G-type at +1.0. He offers type without sacrificing production at +1330M +44F, +41P.

La Rainbow Sweet SPARK *NP ETV *TM, the polled bull hailing from the same maternal line as SALSA, is the top polled genomic bull for type and udder composite at +0.8T, +1.14UDC, +0.6DPR, and +732M.

Triangle Acres Carter JUKE is ranked #4 for G-type at +0.80. He also provides +1.22UDC, +292M, +1.0DPR +4.2PL. JUKE is now available in preferred sexed.

We also offer the CHAMPIONS COLLECTION elite sire lineup including 54BS600 WINRITE, 54BS602 FIRST CHOICE, 54BS539 RICHARD, 54BS581 RASTA, 54BS568 FAST & FURIOUS, and 54BS548 WINNING FORMULA.

New Generation Genetics offers the most comprehensive Brown Swiss Sires portfolio in the U.S. For further information call 920-568-0554, visit our Facebook page http://www.facebook.com/newgenerationgenetics, email info@brownswiss.com or visit http://www.brownswiss.com.

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New Generation Genetics Bulls Lead the Way Following the Genetic Evaluations in December - Hoard's Dairyman

Physiology

Nobel Prize history from the year you were born – Kenosha News

Since 1901, Nobel Prizes have honored the worlds best and brightest and showcased the work of brilliant and creative minds, thanks to Swedish businessman Alfred Nobel, who made his fortune with the invention of dynamite.

The Prize in Physiology or Medicine often honors those whose discoveries led to medical breakthroughs, new drug treatments, or a better understanding of the human body that benefit us all.

The Prize in Literature celebrates those skilled in telling stories, creating poetry, and translating the human experience into words. The Prizes in Chemistry and Physics remind most of us how little we understand of genetics, atomic structures, or the universe around us, celebrating the scientists who further knowledge. A later addition to the award roster, the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences is not an original Prize, but was established by the Central Bank of Sweden in 1968 as a memorial to Alfred Nobel. It applauds those who can unravel the mysteries of markets, trade, and money.

The Peace Prize celebrates, in Nobels words, the person who shall have done the most or the best work for fraternity between nations, the abolition or reduction of standing armies and for the holding and promotion of peace congresses, sometimes risking their lives to do so.

So precious are the awards that the medals of German physicists Max von Laue and James Franck, stored away for safekeeping in Copenhagen during World War II, were dissolved in acid to keep them away from approaching Nazi troops. After the war, the gold was reconstituted from the acid and recast into new medals.

But Nobel history has not been entirely noble. In 1939, British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain, known for his policy of appeasement toward Nazi Germany, was nominated for the Peace Prize. In an act of irony and protest, members of the Swedish Parliament nominated Adolf Hitler. That nomination was withdrawn. Some recipients have ordered oppressive crackdowns on their own people or ignored genocides, either before or after receiving the Prize. The 1918 Nobel Prize in Chemistry was given to Germanys Fritz Haber, who invented a method of producing ammonia on a large scale, which was helpful in making fertilizer. But the same chemist helped develop the chlorine gas that was used as a chemical weapon in World War I.

Stacker looked at facts and events related to the Nobel Prizes each year from 1931 to 2020, drawing from the Nobel Committees recollections and announcements, news stories, and historical accounts.

Take a look, and see what was happening with the Nobel Prizes the year you were born.

You may also like: 100 years of military history

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Nobel Prize history from the year you were born - Kenosha News

Physiology

Is The Secret to Saving Migratory Birds in the Meal Prep? – Smithsonian’s National Zoo and Conservation Biology Institute

The Bird House team at the Smithsonians National Zoo has many beaks to feed, including 23 species of migratory songbirds and shorebirds. But what happens when they are hungry to migrate and theres nowhere to go? Curator Sara Hallager and nutritionist Erin Kendrick share some of the valuable lessons they have learned from taking these marvelous migrators under their wing.

Come fall and spring, migratory songbirds and shorebirds are programmed to do two things: fly and eat. In preparing for the long journey ahead, these birds exhibit a normal behavior called migratory restlessness. During this period, they dont sleep much at night. They eat more. They put on a lot of weight. They expend all that energy (and those extra calories) as they embark on their marvelous migrations.

But what happens when those birds cannot travel, say, because they are housed in a Zoo? Do they gorge themselves, even though they have nowhere to go? How do keepers and Zoo nutritionists help individual animals stay physically fit and healthy, even as their physiology changes naturally with the seasons?

The answer lies in the meal prep.

Before we get into the ins-and-outs of our birds diets, lets look at how they eat in the wild.

ABOVE: Mealworms are on the menu for the Zoos American avocets. To help them acclimate to sharing a space with their caretakers, keeper Lori Smith crouches a short distance away. She tosses the tasty snacks onto a placemat, and the avocets gobble them up.

Songbirds know its time to migrate in the fall, when their food staples (like bugs and berries) decrease. In the spring, they get the urge to migrate back to their breeding grounds for one reasoninsectswhich provide essential protein to newly hatched chicks. There arent enough insects in the tropics to feed both year-round residents and visitors, so migratory species return home in the spring. There, they find an abundance of food resources for themselves and their chicksuntil the cycle begins again.

Like songbirds, shorebirds follow their prey: aquatic and terrestrial insects, crustaceans, mollusks and very small fish. Most insects are only on the menu during the Northern Hemisphere summers. To find food the rest of the year, shorebirds need to fly south.

Stopover points, including the Delaware Bay on the Eastern Shore, are critical to shorebirds journeys. They fill up on fattening foods, such as nutrient-rich horseshoe crab eggs. Food is fuel. Without enough of it, a bird may leave the stopover point late and miss the opportunity to mate. They may find a mate, but lack the energy to breed. Or, they may die during the grueling journey.

Migratory birds in human care do not have to worry about finding food like their wild counterparts do. However, our experience has shown us that these birds can gain (or lose) weight very quickly with the seasons, even if their diets remain the same. They appear to be hard-wired to do this.

ABOVE: Over the summer,we celebrated the arrival of three wood thrush chickstwo females and one maleJune 9, 10 and 12. This was incredibly exciting for several reasons, not the least of which is that mom hatched at the Zoo last year.

Knowing that their weight fluctuates depending on the season, we use what we know about each species food preferences, weight and physiology to make daily tweaks and seasonal adjustments to their diets. A species-appropriate, nutritionally balanced diet will support a migratory bird over its lifetime, through breeding, raising chicks, growth and eventually geriatric care. As such, we aim to keep them within the weight ranges that their wild counterparts exhibit.

During breeding season, songbirds drive for insect consumption increases greatly. So, we increase the amount of insects we feed them, and decrease our plant-based offerings. Heading into winter, we do the opposite. Because there are naturally fewer insects, we feedand the birds consumemore plant parts.

Shorebirds seem to have hearty appetites year-round. They receive pellets formulated for insectivorous animals as well as chopped shrimp, krill, mealworms crickets, clam meat, mussels and the occasional crab. It has been remarkable how well they have taken to their Zoo diets. Some birds even consumed pellets immediately upon arrival!

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Is The Secret to Saving Migratory Birds in the Meal Prep? - Smithsonian's National Zoo and Conservation Biology Institute

Physiology

Kinesiology Doctoral Students Win NEACSM Awards at 2020 Annual Meeting – UMass News and Media Relations

Kinesiology doctoral students Robert Marcotte and Joseph Gordon III received scholarship awards during the annual New England Chapter of the American College of Sports Medicine (NEACSM) Fall Conference held virtually Oct. 15 and 16.

Marcotte received the Linda S. Pescatello 2020 Doctoral Scholarship, and Gordon received the Lawrence E. Armstrong Minority Scholarship. Both scholarships are awarded based on academic excellence, professional experience, professional activities such as attending conferences and workshops, publication of peer-reviewed research, and skill in obtaining grants.

I continue to be impressed by and very proud of our graduate students, both individually and collectively, says professor and chair of kinesiology Jane Kent. Both Jay and Rob are emerging scholars in their areas of research. They are also providing important leadership outside the lab, as well. I wish them the best of luck as they pursue their dissertation studies.

Marcotte is a member of associate professor John Sirards Physical Activity and Health Lab. For his dissertation, Marcotte is developing a scalable and convenient method to estimate the relative intensity of physical activities using wearable activity trackers (i.e., accelerometers) and evaluate its validity under naturalistic, free-living settings.

It's an honor to be recognized for the efforts I have been putting into my academics and research thus far, says Marcotte. My achievements are a result of the support and encouragement of my advisor, Dr. John Sirard, and my lab mates. We strive to produce quality work and motivate one another to continue moving forward on our projects, and for that I am grateful!

Gordon specializes in muscle physiology under the supervision of Kent. His work in Kents Muscle Physiology Lab investigates the effects of aging, sex-differences, fat deposition and training on muscle function. His dissertation research will examine the effects of fat deposition on the biochemical environment, muscle architecture, and functional performance of a variety of populations using magnetic resonance (MR) techniques.

Under normal circumstances I would feel happy to be selected for any merit-based award, says Gordon. That being said, this year I also feel particularly proud to earn this award with the social climate of our country being as polarized as it has been in its history. My goal is to perennially shed light on the disproportionate underrepresentation of all people of color within research, academia, and STEM. I hope this acknowledgement is one way to increase awareness about inherently disadvantaged populations, and others can feel encouraged to provide resources for these groups.

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Kinesiology Doctoral Students Win NEACSM Awards at 2020 Annual Meeting - UMass News and Media Relations