Models can predict how COVID-19 will spread. What goes into them, and how can we use what they tell us? – News@Northeastern

May 14, 2020 medical

Countries around the world are grappling with how to handle the COVID-19 pandemic. Some of the best tools global leaders have at their disposal are epidemiological models, which predict how the disease will spread. But what goes into these models, and how do leaders and public health authorities use this information?

On Thursday, Joseph E. Aoun, president of Northeastern, will sit down for a conversation with Alessandro Vespignani, the director of Northeasterns Network Science Institute, who is leading one of the major efforts to model this disease.

This is not Vespignanis first epidemic. His teams forecasting models for various diseases, including the 2014 outbreak of Ebola in West Africa and the potential spread of the Zika virus in the U.S. in 2016, have informed the decisions of health agencies across the globe. In the case of COVID-19, his model is one of several guiding the policies of the White House.

The key to Vespignanis work, and what makes it different from traditional modeling methods, is including the human element. His model accounts for the incubation period of the disease, how contagious it is, and the method of transmission. But it also incorporates factors that influence human behavior, such as transportation, social interactions, and the availability of medical resources in different areas.

Recently, his team has been using anonymous location data from mobile devices to gauge how the behavior of people in the U.S.how much they are traveling, commuting patterns, number of contacts with new peoplehas changed in response to physical distancing measures.

His research also revealed that SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that causes COVID-19, was already circulating in major U.S. cities in Januarylong before most of us were paying attention.

All this information feeds back into the model to predict the likely spread of the disease and, most importantly, how specific policies could help bring it under control.

Listen in on Thursday at 2:30p.m. on Facebook Live.

For media inquiries, please contact media@northeastern.edu.

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Models can predict how COVID-19 will spread. What goes into them, and how can we use what they tell us? - News@Northeastern

Human Behavior

From the front line: Garbage habits have changed during COVID-19, say trash and compost haulers – Boston.com

May 14, 2020 medical

As the coronavirus pandemic has changed social behavior and how humans live their lives, its also changed what theyve decided to do away with.

Unsurprisingly, trash collectors and curbside composting businesses have seen a dramatic shift resulting from a dropoff of commercial pickup due to closed businesses, and an increase in residential pickup.

But the threat of COVID-19, and it forcing people to stay at home, has also changed what theyre throwing out.

Joseph Fusco, vice president of Casella, a hauler based in Rutland, Vermont, noted that people seem to be taking on home projects, and the company has seen some of them renting out dumpsters or larger trash containers.

Being in the waste and recycling business, its very interesting if you have any kind of interest in anthropology and the study of human behavior, he told Boston.com in a recent phone interview. We reflect whats going on in larger society.

For Casella, which employs roughly 3,000 people in facilities spread throughout New England and into upstate New York and Pennsylvania, the company has seen that change over the last eight weeks.

Were also finding, for example, as a company, what are folks doing with all that free time if theyre quarantined at home? Well, a lot of them are cleaning out their garages and basements, he said.

For the City of Boston, the biggest challenge has been the increase in the amount of trash and recycling coming out of homes. Last week, trash tonnage was up by 31 percent, according to a spokesperson for the citys Department of Public Works. The city only handles residential collection businesses have to hire their own hauler privately.

In the curbside compost business, Black Earth Compost founder Conor Miller said the residential compost bins are getting heavier, and compost sales have been through the roof. Black Earth serves about 13,000 households, according to Miller. The companys service area extends throughout eastern Massachusetts, according to its website.

Theres about 30 percent more compost coming in from residential pickup, according to Miller. This was welcome since half of the businesss commercial subscribers disappeared overnight. Black Earth has also seen people continuing to sign up for residential service.

On the compost delivery side, Black Earth has seen a substantial increase in demand. Before, there was one truck out handling compost delivery, then the business added four more. Now, additional truck rentals have been added to the mix.

Our biggest problem has just been getting out quick enough, Miller said, noting that people seem to be interested in growing their own food during the pandemic. Weve had two- to three-week back orders. We keep adding another truck and another driver. Now were renting trucks to get more.

Black Earth could actually run out of compost, according to Miller. He estimates this could happen by the middle of June. However, he said he knows composters a bit further north that still have some. The idea would be to haul it in from there to Black Earths facility.

In terms of COVID-19 infection, Casella, the City of Boston, and Black Earth all reported little to no virus activity among staff. Neither the city nor Black Earth have had cases of COVID-19 among its haulers. For Casella, of its 3,000 employees, there have been 22 positive tests, according to Fusco.

Weve been very fortunate, he said. For the most part, our folks have not been exposed to the virus.

All said their workers are supplied with the proper personal protective equipment while on the job.

Miller noted that the solitary nature of driving a truck and collecting curbside compost, or of dropping off compost thats garden- or flower bed-ready, certainly helps. Black Earth workers have been urged to not touch the handles on the sides of the compost bins; all wear gloves.

Our guys, this is probably just the best single job, he said, recalling anecdotally that when he used to drive a truck daily, he was rarely sick. Youre fit, youre outside.

Originally posted here:
From the front line: Garbage habits have changed during COVID-19, say trash and compost haulers - Boston.com

Human Behavior

[OPINION] Fighting a pandemic and the climate emergency – Rappler

May 14, 2020 medical

Today, we are faced with a global pandemic COVID-19. In an effort to curb the alarming number of cases related to it and the increase in deaths resulting from the same, governments all over the world have made policy decisions from social distancing to community quarantines to international border controls. Very quickly we have witnessed both governmental and private organizations come together and pool resources to prevent its spread, and individuals and corporations have been made to change their behaviors in order to be protected from the harshest effects of the pandemic.

However, another global concern looms over society: the consequences of living in a world with a rapidly changing climate. Unless individuals, industries, and government work together and change their behavior, whether social, environmental, or ecological, then we might see similar devastating effects in the next few years as extreme temperature changes take place, sea levels rise, and we witness the loss of forests and biodiversity.

Similar impacts of the climate emergency

As of writing, there have been over 4 million reported cases of the COVID-19 pandemic worldwide, with nearly 300,000 deaths attributed to it. A bulk of the confirmed cases are comprised of older adults, especially those with preexisting conditions, but many children are also getting sick with both developed and developing countries, and its most vulnerable citizens, the hardest hit.

Unless we act swiftly and come together to create policies and legislation to protect the most vulnerable, we will see similar things happening with the onset of climate change. Loss of lives, homes, and livelihoods because of climate-induced disasters (longer droughts, more frequent and more intense typhoons, death of livestock, global harvest failure, among others) will certainly take place. (READ: Fight climate change like coronavirus U.N.)

Thus, while we are all staying at home and keeping safe, it is important to remember that the world continues to heat up, and if we dont act quickly to meet our climate commitments in the Paris Agreement, then we might be facing yet another devastating global concern sooner rather than later.

One has to remember that like pathogens, climate change is not hampered by borders. The COVID-19 spread to the far corners of the globe less than 4 months after it was first reported. The effects of climate change will be similar in scope. Indeed, we cannot deal with one existential crisis by ignoring another, and the sooner we realize that, the sooner we can address this looming issue.

Climate change and biodiversity

Climate change and biodiversity are highly intertwined. Rising temperatures, more extreme typhoons, and other similar natural phenomena are predicted to be the top threat to species loss around the world, including coral reefs and plants. This, again, is connected to human behavior. Land degradation and deforestation, human behaviors, can damage natural landscapes and wildlife habitat.

From the perspective of man, this rapid onset of biodiversity loss due to climate change will result to food concerns (unsustainable food systems, shortages of food and potable drinking water, major changes in the food chain, for instance), and, a less overt yet highly important effect: the potential rise in diseases and pests. Disruption of natural ecosystems makes transmission of disease easier both between and interspecies. Destruction of habitats force wildlife to come closer to human populations in order to find shelter and food sources, which can lead to disease spread. The fact is, health, the environment, and climate are so closely interconnected, such that if we change one, we have to expect that it will create effects on the other.

Climate change can also destroy habitats and contribute to the extinction of species. In this regard, it can cause pandemics.

About three quarters of all emerging infectious diseases stem from wildlife, according to UNs environment chief, Inger Andersen. Never before, according to her, have so many opportunities existed for pathogens to pass from wild and domestic animals to people. (READ: [OPINION] We are going beyond a climate crisis)

The change we need

When the pandemic deescalates, therefore, things cannot go back to business as usual, lest history repeats itself. It is paramount that behaviors change. While climate change presents a more long-term threat on our health, an equally drastic shift in behavior is needed in order to curb its effects. After all, changes in behavior will lend to changes in the model.

Current climate models predict a warming surge for the next few years, such that in at least 8 of those models, produced by leading centers in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and France, our equilibrium climate sensitivity (or that degree of warming once the planet comes into balance) has come in at 5 degrees Celsius or warmer, which is a cause not just for concern, but requires the need for urgent responses, according to Science magazine. Else, experts say, the results could be devastating. After all, as it stands, the world is heating up much faster than humans can cope.

We are having a respite now because of the economic inactivity caused by COVID-19 but there could be a resurgence of emissions when this particular virus is defeated.

Therefore, as in staying at home and flattening the curve, it is crucial that behaviors start to change now in order that projections will change. This is proof that while much of the greenhouse gases emissions are linked either directly or indirectly to human behavior, and therefore the cause of climate change, human behavior can also potentially be its solution. But again, this can happen only if governments, corporations, and individuals, commit to such a drastic change in behavior, production, and consumption.

We must reduce, even stop, using fossil fuels like coal and oil, phase out plastics and other harmful waste, do climate-smart agriculture, transform industry to be climate friendly, prevent deforestation and land deforestation and conversion, and protect the integrity of ecosystems while also respecting rights of peoples and ensuring a just transition of vulnerable sectors.

Nature-based solutions

What we need to avoid both climate change and pandemics are nature-based solutions. These are defined by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) as actions to protect, sustainably manage, and restore natural or modified ecosystems, that address societal challenges, including food and water security and climate change, effectively and adaptively.

Among the evidence-based guidelines for these solutions emerge four principles, which was identified in a statement by a group of experts and advocates. In And/also, not Either/or The need to restore nature AND cut emissions they emphasized: the cutting of emissions, conserving and protecting existing ecosystems, and calling on communities to not only be socially responsible, but ecologically responsible as well. For its proponents, the goal is not to choose between restoring nature or cutting emissions; the responsibility is to do both.

Rejecting the old normal, working for a better future

In the 4 months since it was first reported, the COVID-19 pandemic has already become a worldwide phenomenon. Its effects are jarring, swift, and lasting. It has halted economies and put industries in a standstill and individuals at a loss.

Climate change will do the same thing to us if we dont act now. If we maintain status quo in regards our responses to climate change, what we see now is a dress rehearsal for what will potentially happen in the future.

Let us apply nature-based solutions and build a better, more just, sustainable, and happier world. Rappler.com

Joy Reyes is a collaborator of Professor Tony La Via. She graduated from the University of the Philippines College of Law.

Human Behavior

Look To The Private Sector for Positive Change – Thrive Global

May 14, 2020 medical

It appears that the private sector will lead us to more evolved human behavior, and this will have a positive impact on the entire world.

One ofMarco Montemagnos first questions forYuval Noah Harariwas aboutglobal solidarity. Whether it will really happen after this moment or if well forget everything once we get out of lockdown? Yuval replied that we could have reacted with more global solidarity bysharing more informationabout the virus, and even more information about lockdown policies, instead of each country experimenting on their own. Same goes for the distribution of medical supplies and the economy.

In my opinion we have a lot to learn from the private sector when it comes to the management of our affairs. Here are some examples from two of Israels most successful startups who manage everything from a global perspective.

I participated in a webinar calledTurning a Challenge Into an Opportunityhosted byMonday.comandAppsFlyer, because I wanted to see how marketing teams dealt with the crisis. The first thing they mentioned was that both these companies are hiring for many new positions.

The hosts demonstrated the changes that had been implemented from the moment the crisis hit and the steps they recommended for navigating the near future. It all seemed quite obvious to me as a marketing professional, but then I realized that all this change had been done under very unusual conditions.

Maybe these talented pros had little kids crawling all over them and needing attention while they were making these strategic shifts, not to mention also cleaning, cooking and doing laundry with everyone in the house. Apparently, all that actually brought out some very unique things that you dont normally hear. Because the common vibe I heard throughout the webinar beyond the marketing tips were things like:staying human, doing good at the same time, asking customers how they were feeling, be compassionate, providing value (rather than simply put out content), and come from a place of empathy. I dont think those are standard marketing tactics that you used to hear in the old normal.

So I did a little research, and discovered that these core values and behaviors come from the founders of these companies. InHow to lead in this time of crisismonday.comco-founderEran Zinmantalks about how they immediately decided to pivot to remote work when the crisis hit, and how much effort it took to shift the entire team from their old routine to a new one. And I love the way they talk about this whole process so transparently so that everyone can learn from it.

AppsFlyer CEOOren Kanielalso pivoted their global team of 1000 to immediately begin working on what the major brands they serve would need for the new reality:Surprisingly, the COVID-19 crisis managed to buy us some time. We used it to survey our customers and figure out how we can better support them during this new era. We foundenormous opportunities to add value, and quickly pulled an amazing project together that I am excited to announce today. The first phase includes a set of new features and enhancements that makes the AppsFlyer platform more remote-work-friendly, productive, and effective.

During lockdown they produced6 New Features to Power Through the New Normal,a feat that could have taken years to pull off in the old normal.

Since global companies are used to solving challenges together they are far ahead of governments in the globalization department. They pool all the talents of their global teams to power through to the next stage.

Globalization has been catching on ever since we became aware of it 2030 years ago. But today we have a much clearer idea of where all this is headed.

For example, two things that used to be completely opposite were the economy and society. Throughout history this clash caused crises and revolutions that created pressure throughout the entire human network.

This is all about our inability to find the right balance between the main issue humans and the means, which is money. This has always created a conflict of interest, and still does.

The development processes the world is going through highlights this in the form of one crisis on top of another. And along with every crisis there is another point, a point of birth.

After every crisis that was due to our previous behaviors and value systems, new values are born that are more suited to our desirable development. There is always the gap between the current state and desired situation that helps us improve and acquire more advanced forms of life.

It appears that the private sector will lead us to more evolved human behavior, and this will have a positive impact on the entire world. When a crisis hits, companies dont have the luxury of waiting around for things to get better. A healthy business must react swiftly by doing away with the old, and adjusting to the future reality.

Connecting the human and economic aspects with words such as visionary entrepreneurship, agility, belonging, and loyalty, is really a dream come true. So instead of waiting for the next crisis to come along and adjust our perspective again, lets start making some significant changes. Lets let the right kind of leaders take us into the new era.

Entrepreneurs heading global companies have a much healthier perspective of our ideal future. We should be paying more attention to how business leaders get things done in a more conscious way. And especially how important it is to them, and their employees, to be contributing in a meaningful way to the whole.

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Look To The Private Sector for Positive Change - Thrive Global

Human Behavior

The toll of the lockdown could be devastating – Enterprise-Tocsin

May 14, 2020 medical

COVID-19 has killed tens of thousands, but the economic hardship caused by a prolonged panic will kill hundreds of thousands.

That premise is based on a 2009 scholarly paper published in the Quarterly Journal of Economics and endorsed by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Its authors are Daniel G. Sullivan, a former Princeton economics professor who is now executive vice president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, and Till Von Wachter, professor of economics at UCLA.

The paper concludes: We find that job displacement leads to a 15-20% increase in death rates during the following 20 years. If such increases were sustained beyond this period, they would imply a loss in life expectancy of about 1.5 years for a worker displaced at age 40.

If you accept the papers conclusions and run the numbers, a severe economic downtown will kill 30 times more people than COVID-19 has killed so far.

The shutdown has caused 24.6 million Americans to lose their jobs. Each unemployed person loses, on average, 1.5 years of life expectancy. Thats 36.9 million life years. Given the average age of a person in the U. S. is 38, thats 971,052 million lives lost to the economic collapse caused by the government-mandated shutdown.

In contrast, COVID-19, according to unofficial counts, has caused 81,190 deaths. The average age of death is 80 years old. Thats 1,217,850 life years lost to COVID-19. That is 30 times fewer life years lost to COVID-19 than will be lost to economic hardship.

I think we can all agree that losing your job or business causes stress. Medical research is full of studies illustrating how stress causes a host of deadly illnesses.

Take for instance, our biggest killer, heart disease. According to the University of Rochester Medical Center, Studies suggest that the high levels of cortisol from long-term stress can increase blood cholesterol, triglycerides, blood sugar, and blood pressure. These are common risk factors for heart disease. Stress can also cause changes that promote buildup of plaque deposits in arteries.

Even minor stress can trigger heart problems like poor blood flow to the heart muscle. This is a condition in which the heart doesn't get enough blood or oxygen. And, long-term stress can affect how the blood clots. This makes the blood stickier and increases the risk of stroke.

Stress also increases the incidence of our second biggest killer, cancer. According to the National Cancer Institute, Evidence from experimental studies suggests that psychological stress can affect a tumors ability to grow and spread. For example, some studies have shown that when mice bearing human tumors were kept confined or isolated from other miceconditions that increase stresstheir tumors were more likely to grow and spread (metastasize).

In addition, Apparent links between psychological stress and cancer could arise in several ways. For example, people under stress may develop certain behaviors, such as smoking, overeating, or drinking alcohol, which increase a persons risk for cancer.

There are numerous reports and studies showing a huge detrimental effect on the mentally ill caused by COVID-19. I could go on and on.

This is a classic example of the Law of Unintended Consequences. Our government, trying to do the right thing, mandated a shutdown of our economy in the hopes of slowing down the virus. But nobody took into account the health consequences of 24.6 million Americans losing their jobs and tens of millions more being scared to death.

In an effort to get Americans to practice good hygiene, our media and our officials scared our country to death, literally, and have created a crisis far worse than the virus itself. As they say, the cure is worse than the disease.

The whole point of the shutdown was to prevent hospital overload. Instead, just the opposite happened. Hospitals became empty. Basic hospital operations were halted. People were too afraid to seek medical help. Future studies will show just how many deaths this unintended consequence caused.

Almost all the epidemiologists agree that you cannot stop a contagious virus through changes in human behavior, including shutting down the economy. The point was to temporarily slow the spread to prevent hospital overloading, They called this flattening the curve. Here in Mississippi, we thought we were going to need 4,000 ICU beds. Instead, the number was 400, well within our capacity.

Its the same story throughout the nation. The is no shortage of ventilators. There is no shortage of ICU beds. None of the multi-million-dollar hastily erected emergency facilties were ever used. We overreacted.

So this begs the question: Now that we know what we know now, why are we still pursuing a shutdown strategy? This is even more misguided as a policy when we factor in the lives lost to economic stress 30 times more lives.

We are obsessing over one thing and this obsession is killing us in many other ways without us even knowing. Its time to stop.

There is good news. Sundays U. S. death stats were the lowest in six weeks. So were the new cases stats.

This virus is petering out, like all viruses do. Its call Farrs law.

Perhaps social distancing helped. But in Sweden, where there was limited social distancing, its petering out just the same. Viruses mutate and become less deadly.

No doubt, COVID-19 is real. Studies now indicate an infection fatality rate of 1 in 350 versus 1 in 1,000 for the flu.

Thats bad, but its manageable. And certainly not worth destroying the economy over.

Freedom and individual liberty is the cornerstone of our country. We have sacrificed millions of young soldiers lives to defend that freedom. No virus should undo that.

Social distancing, shutdowns and the like should be a personal choice, not a government mandate.

Neither President Trump, nor Governor Reeves, nor Mayor Lumumba should be dictating what we do with our lives, churches, clubs or businessess. Those who are afraid, are free to cloister in their homes. Those who are not, should be free to roam. Thats freedom. Thats liberty.

Its one thing for a virus to destroy our bodies. Its far worse for a virus to destroy our ideals.

We had nothing to fear but fear itself. But our city, our state, our nation and the world succumbed to fear. We will pay a high price for that. In God we must trust, always.

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The toll of the lockdown could be devastating - Enterprise-Tocsin

Human Behavior

What is ABA (Applied Behavior Analysis)? – PsychCentral.com

May 14, 2020 medical

If youve asked yourself, What is applied behavior analysis? or What is ABA? or if someone has asked you one of these questions, this article can help give you an answer.

Applied behavior analysis is also known as ABA. ABA is a science. It can also be viewed as a professional service or a therapeutic intervention.

If you are familiar with other services, such as speech therapy, occupational therapy, counseling, or social work, you can think about ABA as being another type of human service like those fields just with different characteristics and a different approach, in some ways, to helping people.

Although, on a side note, ABA can also be used for animals as well as humans such as in animal training programs.

One commonly cited definition of ABA is that applied behavior analysis is the science in which tactics derived from the principles of behavior are applied to improve socially significant behavior and experimentation is used to identify the variables responsible for the improvement in behavior (Cooper, Heron, & Heward, 2014).

To get a free handout that gives more detail and explanation to the definition of ABA, you can go here.

The most basic way of defining ABA is to see it as being a service that is based upon the science of behavior and learning. This means that ABA is based upon what is found to be effective for helping living beings change behaviors and learn new things.

ABA helps us to learn about how people can improve behaviors in themselves and in other people. It can help people, children and adults, to learn and develop many different skills.

The foundation of ABA started in the early to mid 1900s. Applied behavior analysis has been evolving as a field since then and has grown rather quickly and extensively over the late 20th century and early part of the 21st century.

Research has been done on a variety of aspects of ABA. Research supports the effectiveness of using ABA to change behaviors and improve quality of life for various populations.

One of the main areas of focus in applied behavior analysis is the idea that the environment impacts behavior. From an ABA perspective, behavior is changed by what happens outside the individual.

Although, in ABA, it is important to consider internal factors such as biology or medical issues, but primarily, ABA focuses on how the environment, a persons physical and social surroundings, impacts their behavior.

Another main focus of ABA is that intervention addresses socially significant behaviors. This means that ABA addresses behaviors, or issues, that are important to the person receiving the ABA or using applied behavior analysis.

Socially significant behaviors are those behaviors that are going to have a meaningful impact on quality of life.

ABA can be used for almost any behavior or learning related issue for humans and many animals.

Some examples of what ABA can be used for include:

These are just some examples of what applied behavior analysis can be used for. There are a lot of other behaviors and skills that can be supported with the use of ABA.

ABA can be used for people with a diagnosis, such as autism spectrum disorder, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, or oppositional defiant disorder, as well as people without a diagnosis.

ABA can be provided in many different ways. It is individualized to the person receiving the services.

ABA may be provided as an intensive service as it is often seen with children who have autism spectrum disorder. As an intensive service, ABA may be provided for 20-40 hours a week to a young child with ASD. This service may be provided by a trained behavior technician with oversight by a Board Certified Behavior Analyst.

Another example of how ABA could be done is in a parent training model where an ABA provider meets one to two times a week for 1-2 hour sessions with a parent to help a parent learn ways to improve their childs behaviors and skills.

For more information on using ABA in a parent training service, you can visit the site: http://www.ABAparenttraining.com or check out the One-Year ABA Parent Training Curriculum or the ABA Parent Training Membership Program.

ABA might also be done in a consultation model where a trained ABA professional consults with an individual or an organization to provide recommendations on how to help the client create and achieve goals. This could be seen with health and wellness supports or in organizational behavior management.

ABA can also be provided as a one on one service as well as in group settings.

There are many different strategies that are used in ABA to help people improve behaviors and skills.

Some examples of ABA based strategies include:

These are only a few examples of how ABA is used. There are many, many more examples of how ABA can be done and the strategies that could be used within ABA to help people achieve their goals.

We have gone over some of the characteristics of ABA.

To learn more about ABA, check out the online course: What is ABA? Introduction to the Field of Applied Behavior Analysis.

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What is ABA (Applied Behavior Analysis)? - PsychCentral.com

Human Behavior

COMMUNITY VOICES: Another aspect of life with coronavirus has changed: How we enjoy movies – The Bakersfield Californian

May 14, 2020 medical

Growing up in Bakersfield, the movie theater was always a place of comfort for me: seeing the latest Disney animated picture with the family, watching the big, new action blockbuster with friends, seeing a scary movie with a high school date. The cinema has always been a staple in my life, as it has been for generations of Americans.

As the years have gone by, movie theaters have evolved and grown into a far more comfortable and accommodating experience, with Bakersfield theaters like Maya Cinemas adding reclining seats and Studio Movie Grill offering enticing dinner-and-a-movie combos for a decent price. Some theaters have added other amenities, such as bars and screenings of old classics.

But in mid-March, movie theaters nationwide were forced to shut down due to the coronavirus pandemic. As a regular movie-goer, its been an odd adjustment for me. I no longer have the choice to go out with friends but am instead forced to stay at home by myself to watch movies in my pjs.

The film industry seems to have found a workaround for this issue, however: Premium Video on Demand. With the big screen no longer an option, many studios, including Universal, Warner Bros. and Disney, have moved from the silver screen to the family room with new theatrical releases.

Universals Trolls: World Tour was the first major film that shifted to Premium Video on Demand, releasing on April 10. It was a surprising financial success for the company, with NBCUniversal CEO Jeff Shell saying in an interview with the Wall Street Journal, The results of Trolls: World Tour exceeded our expectations and demonstrated the viability of PVOD [Premium Video on Demand]. As soon as theaters reopen, we expect to release movies on both formats.

What we all must ask ourselves now is whether this switch to Premium Video on Demand has simply been a necessity in this strange era or a sign that perhaps the way we consume entertainment is changing. For several years now, streaming services like Netflix and Hulu have been releasing their own films straight to their subscribers, viewable from day one for no additional cost. Will other studios follow Universal in the practice of releasing both in the theaters and PVOD from day one? Are these attempts by Studio Movie Grill, Maya and other companies to replicate the at-home experience enough to bring people back? When this pandemic inevitably ends, will we see the same number of moviegoers return to theaters, or is PVOD the future?

I believe there is room for both. Not as many people may return to the cinemas as before, with more stay-at-home options available. But with that said, there will always be a place for movie theaters in our society. Cinemas are much more than simply a venue for viewing movies; they are an experience in and of themselves. They are a social event, a celebration of coming together, whether it is with family, friends and just fellow fans of film. Sharing the experience of entertainment with others will always be a part of human behavior.

Ben Price is a screenwriter, actor and director. He is a graduate of Bakersfield High School and CSU Sacramento.

Human Behavior

Jerry Seinfeld: ‘I’m not in the mood to be funny’ – Minneapolis Star Tribune

May 14, 2020 medical

Many of us have been wondering what Jerry Seinfeld, the sitcom character, would be doing in this current era of home quarantines and social distancing: how his extreme fastidiousness, self-centeredness and constant scrutiny of quotidian details would be stretched to hilarious extremes in an environment of isolation and anxiety.

However, the real Jerry Seinfeld is not the same person. While he has been sheltering in place with his wife, Jessica, and their three children, he is still inescapably prone to atomic-level observations of human behavior. But he also is self-conscious in a way that hes never been before: He cracks jokes and then wonders whether its appropriate to do so or if people even want to laugh right now.

From that perspective, he contemplated his new Netflix stand-up special, 23 Hours to Kill. He is aware that its jokes about the minor indignities of public gatherings, internet communication and the Postal Service play very differently now than when the set was recorded in October.

These are edited excerpts from that conversation.

Q: Are youre finding you can still make jokes right now?

A: Not really, to tell you the truth. I dont really feel that funny. Its hurting so many people, so brutally. Im not in the mood to be funny. Its like youre a bird and then suddenly they change your cage. Youre just not sure who you are now.

Q: Is there a part of your routine that other people might find helpful right now?

A: The first thing I do is put water on my face. I got it from the movie The Hustler, with Jackie Gleason and Paul Newman. Thats how I change modes. Its like on Broadway: You need a curtain to come down between the first act and the second act. To me, thats water on your face.

Q: Do you find yourself yearning to get back onstage when you havent been able to do it for several weeks?

A: Its kind of like missing your friends. I would love to hang out with them, but I cant. You just accept it. I still have a writing session every day. Its another thing that organizes your mind.

Q: Do you worry that stand-up comedy wont ever be what it was before and the audiences wont come back like they once did?

A: No chance of that. People are going to go back, first of all, because laughter is the greatest feeling of release that there is. And No. 2, the comedians are going to adapt so much quicker than everyone else. The TV shows wont quite know what to make. The movie people might not know what to make. The comedians, within three nights, will know what to be doing. Because youll get that feedback instantly of what works and what doesnt.

Q: Do you think this might be the last stand-up special you do?

A: I dont know. It feels like that to me. I like guys like Cary Grant that didnt want to go past a certain point on film. Live is different Ill perform forever. But on film, theres a point where I dont know. Ill see when I get there.

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Jerry Seinfeld: 'I'm not in the mood to be funny' - Minneapolis Star Tribune

Human Behavior

Grocers react to sharp spike in grocery food prices, consumer concerns of price-gouging – East Idaho News

May 14, 2020 medical

(CNN) Prices for supermarket staples, including eggs, meat and cereal soared last month in the largest one-month spike in close to fifty years, according to the latest report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Overall, food prices climbed an average of 2.6%, the highest increase since February 1974.

The price index for eggs climbed more than 16% the biggest increase for any food item.

As consumers are buying more groceries and eating at home more often, David Ortega a food economist and associate professor at Michigan State University says he thinks its less of an issue of grocers taking advantage of the current market environment, and more a symptom of current market conditions.

For the most part, its supply and demand issues here, at play, Ortega told CNN. What were seeing here is economic forces at play, but also the resiliency of our food system to be able to provide food at a reasonable price.

CNN reached out to several grocery store chains to ask about consumer concerns around rising prices at the supermarket.

Publix, one of the largest grocery store chains in the southeast, said in a statement to CNN, In some instances, there have been price increases from manufacturers. We work extremely hard to negotiate pricing with our suppliers, so that we can offer the best price to our customers. To mitigate price increases during difficult times such as these, we also try to absorb as much of the increase as we can before having to pass along an increase to our customers.

The National Grocers Association, a trade association that represents independent areas of the food industry, said in a statement that as costs rise from producers and the supply chain, our members are following the same pricing structures and policies as they always have.

Grocers are working with their suppliers to mitigate price increases to the best of their ability and keep prices as steady as possible, but processing plant disruptions along with the surge in demand will have an impact on costs of goods and in turn consumers may experience higher prices on some products, it said.

Ortega said while the Covid-19 pandemic has been a shock to the food supply system, the economic forces at play are working as they should be. We are seeing the supply chains and markets adjust and it can be concerning for some, of course, but it is a short term reaction to a very significant shock.

While economists attribute the swell in grocery prices to supply and demand issues, coupled with changing human behavior, some have publicly questioned whether price gouging could be a factor in some cases.

Attorneys general from 11 midwestern states have asked the US Department of Justice to investigate potential price fixing among meatpacking companies during the pandemic. This is not a new accusation but President Donald Trump said last week he had asked the DOJ to look into the claims.

In April, the Attorney General of Texas sued the countrys largest egg producer, Cal-Maine Foods, for allegedly raising the price of one dozen eggs by 300% in one years time. Cal-Maine Foods issued a statement in response saying it strongly denies these allegations and that it has not exploited this tragic national pandemic for gain.

Excerpt from:
Grocers react to sharp spike in grocery food prices, consumer concerns of price-gouging - East Idaho News

Human Behavior

Evaluating Growth And Value Stocks In The Era Of COVID-19 – Seeking Alpha

May 14, 2020 medical

How are growth and value managers considering risks and opportunities amid todays highly uncertain environment? We recently sat down with two of our hire rank managers, one from each side of the coin, to discuss.

Barry Dargan is the CEO and portfolio manager at Intermede Investment Partners, a global equity investment management firm based in London. In his day-to-day role, he looks for high-quality, long-term compounding growth stocks.

Patrick Kaser is a managing director and portfolio manager at Brandywine Global Investment Management. He concentrates on traditional value investingsearching for good companies with good cash flows that are undervalued, relative to his teams assessment of fair value.

Both Dargan and Kaser are preferred managers in Russell Investments U.S. and global equity portfolios, and were guests at our recent institutional client webinar. Here are their thoughts on growth versus value.

As a growth manager, Dargans primary mandate is to find long-term, compounding quality growth companies with strong franchises and excellent management that can deliver on earnings growth, time and time again. Essentially, he looks for growth names that he believes will outperform over the long term.

Being a growth manager is very much about being a long-term investor, Dargan said. With this in mind, he shared the results from the past 30 years to see how capital-intensive companiesthose that require large amounts of investmentshave performed in markets when compared to companies with low capital intensity. The verdict?

Low capital-intensity companiessuch as many of those within the technology, healthcare and consumer staples sectorshave significantly outperformed capital-intensive companies in the industrials, materials, telecommunications and utilities sectors. Despite some periods of weakness following the technology, media and telecom bubble of the late 1990s and the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2008, cumulative performance of low capital-intensity companies has been strongand even acceleratedover the past ten years.

These are the type of companies that Dargan, as a growth manager, is looking to find in the era of coronavirus. The inefficiency that were trying to exploit here is the fact that the stock market doesn't give full credit for the power of compounding to companies over the long haul, he remarked.

As a value investor, I often joke that I'm one of those people standing alone in the corner at a partythe person no one wants to talk to, Brandywines Patrick Kaser said. Today, amid the severe economic downturn brought about by COVID-19, this probably holds true more than ever, he added.

And yet, there may be no better time than now to start thinking about value stocks, Kaser said. Why? At its core, value investing anchors around exploiting short-term human behavior. Essentially, investors place too much of a focus on short-term outlooks, he said.

People often anchor themselves far too much to negative or positive news in the short-term, Kaser explained, and its this very bias that creates opportunity for value managers. Over the past month, for instance, negative short-term sentiment has led to very cheap valuations for some stocks, he said.

Like growth investors, though, value investors also need to take a multi-year approach, as they dont necessarily know which sectors, industries or parts of the market might fall out of favor. Generally speaking, you need to be willing to cast a pretty wide net, often over a number of years. Patience is required to exploit time-horizon biases, Kaser said.

Kaser sees two main opportunities for value investors to exploit amid todays turbulent environment. The first is the spread between value stocks and low-volatility stocks (such as utilities and consumer staples). Why? This spread is now twice what it was during the tech bubble of the early 2000s, which Kaiser said is largely unprecedented.

The second opportunity centers around the relative valuation of growth stocks versus value stocks. The price-to-earnings spread between the two has now widened to levels in line with those seen during the tech bubble. This is because many investors are paying a premium for growth stocks right now, as they fear that value names wont experience much growth, Kaser explained.

Intermedes Barry Dargan believes that changes brought about in the past two decades will continue to help higher quality, long-term growth companies deliverdespite the coronavirus pandemic.

There's been an enormous amount of consolidation in the stock market among companies within industries over the last 30 years or so, particularly over the last 20 years. Essentially, companies have been buying each other. The net effect of this is that the top four companies in most global industries now have, on average, 30% of the total industry revenuecompared to roughly 20% in the past, he explained. Ultimately, said Dargan, this concentration has led to rising returns and an increase in profitability for companies.

A lot of these companieswhich Dargan refers to as super companiesbenefit massively from incremental users, which can be acquired at no cost. Companies like Facebook (NASDAQ:FB), Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL), Mastercard (NYSE:MA) and Visa (NYSE:V) have this network effect about them, which leads to extremely high returnsand makes it extremely difficult to compete against them, he explained. Dargan believes that while the pandemic may cause these companies to be eclipsed a little bit in the short term by others, taking a long-term view argues for their continued strong performance.

Several large tech companies and certain industries will benefit immensely from the increasing reliance on technology that this pandemic has brought aboutespecially in the long term, he said.

When it comes to timing, Brandywines Patrick Kaser says that, historically, value stocks tend to be explosive coming out of a recession, while typically faring much weaker heading into a recession.

The recent market environment has been particularly unique, he said, because value hasby some measuresunderperformed for the last 14 years. By and large, its been more than a decade of pain for value stocks, which is an extensive length of time, relative to any other period in U.S. history, Kaser said. Not surprisingly, the pandemic has only made things worse, he added.

The valuation dispersion between the cheapest stocks and the average stock is now at a level of disparity seen only twice since 1926. This brings about the question: Can growth really continue to outperform from here on out? Can the spread between the two styles continue to widen?

History argues that value can make up a lot of ground very quickly once the spread gets too wide, Kaser said. He refers to these periods in which value stocks explode in price as violent snapbacks.

These snapbacks are triggered by investor behavior, he said. Theres a behavioral element in people that makes us want to wait until the future looks more secureuntil the economic recovery is actually visible, Kaser explained. Value investing can exploit this, he said, by assessing the fundamentals of companies that have been beaten up by the downturn. Once we do the background work, as value investors we might say, No, its not too early to start buying. Now is the time to get on board.

A constant pattern Kaser sees is that the best opportunities exist when theyre quite uncomfortable to most people. It's at these market bottomswhen many are thinking about sellingthat value investors step in, he said. This is particularly true in todays times, Kaser noted.

The opportunity in value comes with a lot of discomfort in the short-term, but we know thisand we stick to it, he concluded. As value investors, we believe you need to grab the opportunities as theyre created.

Both Dargan and Kaser agree that the pandemic is likely to have a significant impact on both value and growth stocks in the short- and long-term. This is why we at Russell Investments believe its crucial in todays environment to maintain diversified exposures, and to embed opportunities that are expected to pay off over different time horizons.

As both Dargan and Kaser have shared, we think theres room to add value by identifying high-quality, long-term compounders, as well as by selecting contrarian opportunities where we believe discounted valuations outweigh perceived risks. While none of us could have forecasted 2020 to turn out the way it has, we think that the case for leaning into value has become even more compelling.

Ultimately, regardless of style, we believe that partnering with experienced investors during this time of difficulty is more important than ever. Time-tested investment processes that seek to minimalize the behavioral biases we are all prone to, while steadfastly maintaining focus and discipline, may be paramount to weathering todays rough seas. We stand ready to assist.

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Evaluating Growth And Value Stocks In The Era Of COVID-19 - Seeking Alpha