Tag Archives: environment

Robots use game theory to understand how we think – Marketplace

May 1, 2020 medical

This is part of our Econ Extra Credit project, where we read anintroductory economics textbookprovided by the nonprofitCore Econtogether with our listeners.

Robots are doing their part during the COVID-19 pandemic. They whiz around our hospitals and grocery stores, taking patient temperatures, sanitizing high-touch surfaces and restocking shelves and they help minimize the amount of human contact required to accomplish it all.

Part of a robots job is navigating around the people it encounters.

The thing about these environments our roads, our hospital floors is that theyre not empty. Theyre full of people. And so these robots need to choose their actions carefully, said Anca Dragan, a computer science professor at the University of California, Berkeley. Because you dont want these robots bumping into people.

Which means that robots need to get smart enough about our actions to anticipate what were going to do next. They need to understand us, to a certain extent a tall order if we dont always understand ourselves.

To model human behavior for these robots, engineers might start with the basic goals that motivate us as we move about public spaces: We walk down the produce aisle looking for asparagus, or were trying to get through an intersection before the light turns red.

This is very much borrowed from economics, where we model human behavior there as responding to these incentives or utilities, Dragan told Marketplace Morning Report host David Brancaccio.

But our environment can influence our behavior. If a car turns into our lane up ahead, we might slow down, even if it means missing that light.

The easiest thing to do is what traditional economics does, which is to assume that people are these perfect little game players; theyre perfect optimizers; theyre perfect utility maximizers and were not.

Enter game theory, a bedrock principle of behavioral economics.

Game theory comes from the fact that neither the human nor the robot make decisions about what to do in pursuit of their goals in a vacuum. Theyre aware of each other, Dragan said. There comes this tension: What people do influences what the robot does; what the robot does influences what people do. Its this back and forth. Its kind of a negotiation.

The tools of game theory allow robots to account for the ways people might change course because of the presence or actions of others. And anticipating human action efficiently enables robots to make progress toward their own goals, too.

But game theory relies on rational actors and sometimes, human behavior can seem irrational to the onlooker.

One thing that makes all of this very challenging is that once you think about it in this game theoretic terms, the easiest thing to do is what traditional economics does, which is to assume that people are these perfect little game players; theyre perfect optimizers; theyre perfect utility maximizers and were not. And behavioral economics has told us that for a long time, Dragan said.

Take, for example, somebody who sells their stocks when the stock market crashes. Instead of assuming that they are fundamentally irrational, or they dont care about losing money, we might instead consider the beliefs that could have motivated the action. We might need to tweak our model. Selling your stocks when the market is down appears far more rational if you think the market will fall even further in the future.

Dragan says it is important to teach robots how to follow this sort of reasoning.

They should look at an action and not impart their own understanding of the world on the person, [or] expect the person to be rational under the robots view of the world, she said.

Itll help robots understand us better, so they can help us better.

Unpacking Covid-19 and the Connections Between Ecosystems, Human Health, and Security – New Security Beat

May 1, 2020 medical

What are the underlying drivers of risk that created the conditions for Covid-19 to emerge, and how do we better address them? said Lauren Herzer Risi, Project Director for the Environmental Change and Security Program, in this weeks Friday Podcast, recorded during a recent Wilson Center Ground Truth Briefing on the Covid-19 pandemic. This question framed the discussion, which explored the intersection of the environment, public health, and national security. Although the global pandemic came as a shock to many, the novel coronavirus was not a surprise to epidemiologists and experts who had been sounding the alarm for decades. There have been clear signals of the risks we face from animal-to-human virus transmission, including Ebola, SARS, and other regional epidemics, said Risi. These zoonotic diseases, especially now, are creating concerns about food safety, wildlife conservation, and public health. But the risks dont just come from wet markets and our increasingly connected world.

Rapid urbanization and population growth created a ticking time bomb, as we have increasingly intruded into natural habitats. The loss and fragmentation of wildlife ecosystems has brought humans into closer contact with animals than ever before. While the exact origins of coronavirus have yet to be confirmed, we know that this amplified opportunity for virus transmission is a major factor. An estimated 70 percent of new human infectious disease outbreaks come from pathogens that originated in animals, said Sharon Guynup, Global Fellow at the Wilson Center and a National Geographic Explorer.

We are constantly expanding our interaction with animals and nature. We need to be very, very clear that this is a human-made problem, a humanity-made problem, said Dr. Ellen Carlin, Assistant Research Professor at the Center for Global Health Science and Security and Director of the Graduate Program in Global Infectious Disease at Georgetown University. Its really all of us collectively making decisions about the way that we live. Human behavior puts pressure on natural ecosystems through land use and development, mass urbanization, agricultural intensification, extractive industries, and the growing global demand for commodities. Climate change further exacerbates the environmental degradation. Overall this trend is accelerating the emergence of zoonotic diseases in human populations.

Another aspect of this close contact between humans and animals is the prevalence of illegal wildlife trade and consumption. Some have called for bans in China, but wildlife trade and wet markets arent unique to China, and a solution will require global efforts, said Guynup. It will also be crucial to uphold and enforce the bans put into place, as Chinas actions will have a ripple effect on the policies of neighboring consumer and hub countries. For progress to be made, she said, countries must develop multi-pronged approaches, including strengthening policies and enforcement at national levels, raising public awareness, promoting community involvement, and changing consumer behavior. While Covid-19 is much bigger than just a wildlife trade issue, it is a critical piece of the puzzle.

The cascading impacts of the pandemic on human health, national economies, and society has elevated the coronavirus tonot just a public health crisis, but a national security threat as well. There is currently a disconnect between environmental threats and security paradigms, said Rod Schoonover, founder and CEO of Ecological Futures Group. Unfortunately, U.S. national security is outdated and needs to be recalibrated, I think, to reflect the threats that the country faces, he said. Topics like climate change, land use, and biodiversity need to be core national security concerns instead of add-ons to geopolitical goals, said Schoonover, who was Director of Environment and Natural Resources for the National Intelligence Council. Security dialogues need to involve experts such as epidemiologists, ecologists, and climate scientists in order to establish a climate-smart, ecologically informed pandemic preparedness policy. If you understand the deep connectedness of the planet, he said, you understand that the very support system of humanity is in jeopardy.

How to solve the current pandemic is a priority, but developing long-term plans for how we can better prepare for next pandemic is also important. Given the deep interconnectedness of our world, this coronavirus will not be the last outbreak, said Guynup. Among the many scientific and global health initiatives looking to develop solutions, the Global Virome Project is working to discover unknown zoonotic viral threats and stop future pandemics before outbreaks occur. The Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness is coordinating the development of vaccines against coronavirus and emerging infectious diseases. Although there is no binding global legal agreement on wildlife crime, the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES), is scaling up enforcement efforts and incorporating the consideration of health risks.

We need to tackle the drivers of the pandemic to ultimately achieve prevention, said Dr. Carlin. A shift of epic proportions will be needed to reduce environmental and ecosystem harm. We have a choice to ignore recommendations and continue on with business as usual, or we can recognize our vulnerability to these emerging viral threats, Guynup said. Our well-being is inextricably linked with that of the planets web of life, she said. In fact, one could argue that the state of the world can be measured by the state of the wild.

Sources: Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness, Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora, Global Virome Project.

Photo credit:River of Development,March 18, 2005. Courtesy of Flickr userPeter Morgan.

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Human Behavior

How a Warming Climate Could Affect the Spread of Diseases Similar to COVID-19 – Scientific American

May 1, 2020 medical

Scientists have long known that the rise in average global temperatures is expanding the geographical presence of vector-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue fever, because the animals that transmit them are adapting to more widespread areas. The link between respiratory illnesses, including influenza and COVID-19, and a warming planet is less clear. But some scientists are concerned that climate change could alter the relationship between our bodys defenses and such pathogens. These modifications could include the adaptation of microbes to a warming world, changes in how viruses and bacteria interact with their animal hosts, and a weakened human immune response.

The immune system is our natural defense against harmful substances. When a respiratory pathogensuch as the new SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19enters the body through the airways, it damages cells by taking over their machinery and making more copies of itself. The injured cells release signaling proteins called cytokines that communicate with other parts of the body to activate an immune response against the foreign invaders.

Mammals have evolved another, more basic defense against pathogens: an elevated body temperature relative to that of their environment. As a result of this change, many microbes that are adapted to cooler temperatures are unable to endure a warm mammalian body.

A lot of organisms in the environment cannot survive [at] 37 degrees Celsius, the standard for normal human body temperature, says Arturo Casadevall, chair of molecular microbiology and immunology at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. So our temperature is almost like a thermal barrier that protects us against many organisms.

The higher ambient temperatures expected with a changing climate could, however, favor pathogens that will be more difficult for peoples body to fight. In a paper published in mBIO in 2019, Casadevall and his colleagues described a drug-resistant fungusCandida auristhat was first isolated from a person in 2009 and emerged on three different continents in the past decade. The common denominator for these emergence events was temperature, the researchers say. The finding, they note, may be the first example of a fungus adapting to a higher temperature and breaching humans thermal barrier.

But a funguswhich does not require a host to replicateis very different than a virus, such as SARS-CoV-2. That virus is thought to have jumped from bats to humansboth warm-blooded hostspotentially via an intermediate animal. If cold-blooded creatures start to adapt to warmer conditions, they could unleash a slew of new pathogens to which humans may not have immunity.

Imagine that the world is hotter and that lizards adapt to live in temperatures very close to yours. Then their viruses adapt to higher temperatures, Casadevall says. We have two pillars of defense: temperature and advanced immunity. In a warming world, we may lose the pillar of temperature if the [pathogens] adapt to be close to our temperature.

This issue could be exacerbated as species move to historically cooler climates and higher elevations while the world warms. In a 2017 study published in Science, researchers estimated that, on average, land species are shifting toward the poles at a rate of 17 kilometers per decade, while marine species are doing so at 72 kilometers per decade. Such a reshuffling of species around the planet could mean that animals that host unique disease-causing microorganisms will live side by side with those that would not normally host them, creating new transmission pathways.

A warming world could also have an effect on humans other defense mechanism: the immune system. Researchers have been aware for years that factors such as a lack of sleep and stress could weaken it. Last year, in a study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, scientists in Tokyo also discovered that heat reduced mices immune response to a flu virus. The researchers infected otherwise healthy, young adult female mice with the influenza A virus, one of two types that cause seasonal flu epidemics in humans. The mice were housed for seven days in one of three temperature-controlled spaces: at four, 22 and 36 degrees C, respectively. The study authors found the immune systems of the mice exposed to the highest ambient temperature did not fight the virus as effectively as the other two groups.

Specifically, the researchers noted that the mice in the hottest room ate less than those in the cooler rooms and lost 10 percent of their body weight in the first 24 hours of being exposed to higher temperatures. People often lose their appetite when they feel sick, said study author Takeshi Ichinohe, an associate professor at the University of Tokyo, in a press release. If someone stops eating long enough to develop a nutritional deficit, that may weaken the immune system and increase the likelihood of getting sick again. When Ichinohe and his colleague Miyu Moriyama, then at the University of Tokyo, supplemented the mices diet with sugar or short-chain fatty acids (which are commonly produced by intestinal bacteria), those animals were able to mount a normal immune response.

EllenF. Foxman,an assistant professor of laboratory medicine and immunobiology at the Yale School of Medicine, who was not involved in the study, expresses caution about making a direct link between heat and the mices immune response. The temperature had an effect on the animals behavior, which had an effect on immunity, and the mice didn't form as good of an antiviral immune response in this particular type of flu infection, she says. In contrast, Foxmans own 2015 PNAS study showed that the very first steps of the immune response to fight a cold virus were, in fact, boosted by higher temperatures and depressed by lower ones.

The University of Tokyo researchers question if the weakened immune response seen in their study is the result of a nutritional deficit or the fact that the immune system is hampered by heat altering the activity of certain genes. And they say further experiments are needed. Nevertheless, climate change could potentially disrupt the human immune responseeither directly via higher temperature or indirectly via its effects on global food securitya scenario suggested by a 2019 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report.

Foxman, who acknowledges the validity of the Tokyo mouse study, believes it is a leap to conclude from its results that warming makes humans more directly susceptible to viral infections. But she acknowledges that changes in climate could alter the number of host animals, their activity and human exposure to them.

I think that climate change disrupts a lot of patternsof human behavior, of insect vectors and even [of] batsfrom which the COVID-19 virus and other deadly coronaviruses likely originated, Foxman says. The disruptions could indirectly alter the interactions between diseases and human defenses in ways scientists have yet to fully understand.

Read more about the coronavirus outbreakhere.

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How a Warming Climate Could Affect the Spread of Diseases Similar to COVID-19 - Scientific American

Human Behavior

Global economy could be reshaped for the better post Covid-19 – Verdict

May 1, 2020 medical

As the world continues to suffer the implications of the severe Covid-19 pandemic, it is worth examining how the global economy can be reshaped for the better

As the lockdown has expanded throughout the world a number of critical industries have been damaged, possibly beyond repair. Oil and gas, travel and tourism and most services and retail industries are unlikely to be reformed in the same way in which they existed in the past.

Partially, this is because of the length of time it will take to overcome the virus. However, the worst aspects of human behavior are also clearly demonstrated in these types of industries. Kick-starting those with huge government stimulus packages would be a squandered opportunity to reshape for the better.

Despite constant reminders over the past few decades of the impact that our use of fossil fuels has on the environment, consumption levels have done nothing but climb. Now as the world economy pauses, millions of barrels of oil are left unburned and cities all over the world have been breathing easier for weeks.

Using this opportunity to change consumption patterns and nurture alternative energy with serious investment could result in current climate goals becoming achievable, which at present they are not.

Cheap holiday flights and weekly business trips have helped to bring the world together but they have also resulted in excessive business practices that have encouraged millions of unnecessary trips every day, burning jet fuel.

The coronavirus pandemic has shown that the majority of office based jobs can function at the same level of operating efficiency working from home, with none of the travel. Businesses are beginning to see that endless travel around the world and even commutes in and out of the office are largely obsolete.

Most societies have been organized around encouraging massive consumption of items such as clothing, food and all manner of disposable goods. The success of a countrys economy can largely be measured, by modern standards, as purely the cash amount of goods bought and sold.

As shopping and consumption levels have been reduced to a minimum, consumers have had a glimpse into what products are necessary for their wellbeing and what are not. There are vast swathes of retail companys that it might not be beneficial to support with government aid after COVID-19 ends.

Already central banks have prepared and given out huge amounts of cash to these failing industries. However, it should be noted that even during crisis, many troubled businesses have been giving out dividend payments and maintaining executive bonus.

A good portion of these industries wont actually be able recover or even operate at their previous capacity. Taking on nation debt to protect industries highly likely to fail is not operating in the general interest.

MarketLine is a sister company of this website.

Immunology

Outlook on the Worldwide Research Antibodies Industry to 2024 – Mergers, Acquisitions, Agreements and Collaborations – GlobeNewswire

May 1, 2020 medical

Dublin, May 01, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The "Research Antibodies Market - Forecasts from 2019 to 2024" report has been added to ResearchAndMarkets.com's offering.

The research antibodies market is estimated to be valued at US$1.032 billion in 2018 and is projected to grow further in the coming years. Research antibodies react to the presence of specific antibody make them indispensable tool for the clinical as well as basic researches. Due to the high specificity and selectivity of the antibodies, they are being used in wide variety of applications such as biochemical tools for a range of applications including selection, identification, purification and as therapeutics.

Routine procedures such as western blot, flow cytometry, immunohistochemistry (IHC), enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and many others also rely on these antibodies. Rising investments for the research and development of the research antibodies coupled with the growing industry-Academia collaboration will drive the market during the given forecast period. Rising demand for the personalized medicine and protein therapeutics will also boost the market growth. However, rising quality concerns regarding these antibodies and large amount of time and cost might restrain the market of research antibodies during the given time frame.

This report is an exhaustive study that aims to present the key market trends through various chapters focusing on different aspects of the market. The study provides a detailed market overview through the market dynamics sections which detail key market, drivers, restraints, and opportunities in the current market. The report analyzes key opportunity regional markets, and the current technology penetration through lifecycle analysis. The report also analyzes the market through comprehensive market segmentation by type, research area, technology, and geography.

The research antibodies market has been segmented based on type, research area, technology, and geography. By type, the market has been segmented on the basis of monoclonal antibodies (mAbs), and polyclonal antibodies (pAbs). By research area, the market has been segmented into oncology, infectious diseases, immunology, neurology, and others. By technology, the market has been divided into western blotting, flow cytometry, enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), and others.

Regional analysis has been provided with detailed analysis and forecast for the period 2018 to 2024. The global market has been broken down into North America, South America, Europe, Middle East and Africa (MEA), and the Asia Pacific regions. The report also analyzes 15 countries across these regions with thorough analysis and forecast along with prevailing market trends and opportunities which each of these countries present for the manufacturers.

Major players in the research antibodies market have been covered along with their relative competitive position and strategies. The report also mentions recent deals and investments of different market players over the last year. The company profiles section details the business overview, financial performance for the past three years, key products and services being offered along with the recent developments of these important players in the research antibodies market.

Key Topics Covered:

1. Introduction1.1. Market Definition1.2. Market Segmentation

2. Research Methodology2.1. Research Data2.2. Assumptions

3. Executive Summary3.1. Research Highlights

4. Market Dynamics4.1. Market Drivers4.2. Market Restraints4.3. Porters Five Forces Analysis4.3.1. Bargaining Power of Suppliers4.3.2. Bargaining Power of Buyers4.3.3. Threat of New Entrants4.3.4. Threat of Substitutes4.3.5. Competitive Rivalry in the Industry4.4. Industry Value Chain Analysis

5. Research Antibodies Market Analysis, By Type5.1. Introduction5.2. Monoclonal Antibodies (mAbs)5.3. Polyclonal Antibodies (pAbs)

6. Research Antibodies Market Analysis, By Research Area6.1. Introduction6.2. Oncology6.3. Infectious Diseases6.4. Immunology6.5. Neurology6.6. Others

7. Research Antibodies Market Analysis, By Technology7.1. Introduction7.2. Western Blotting7.3. Flow Cytometry7.4. Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA)7.5. Others

8. Research Antibodies Market Analysis, By Geography8.1. Introduction8.2. North America8.2.1. North America Research Antibodies Market, By Type, 2018 to 20248.2.2. North America Research Antibodies Market, By Research Area, 2018 to 20248.2.3. North America Research Antibodies Market, By Technology, 2018 to 20248.2.4. By Country8.2.4.1. United States8.2.4.2. Canada8.2.4.3. Mexico8.3. South America8.3.1. South America Research Antibodies Market, By Type, 2018 to 20248.3.2. South America Research Antibodies Market, By Research Area, 2018 to 20248.3.3. South America Research Antibodies Market, By Technology, 2018 to 20248.3.4. By Country8.3.4.1. Brazil8.3.4.2. Argentina8.3.4.3. Others8.4. Europe8.4.1. Europe Research Antibodies Market, By Type, 2018 to 20248.4.2. Europe Research Antibodies Market, By Research Area, 2018 to 20248.4.3. Europe Research Antibodies Market, By Technology, 2018 to 20248.4.4. By Country8.4.4.1. Germany8.4.4.2. France8.4.4.3. United Kingdom8.4.4.4. Italy8.4.4.5. Others8.5. Middle East and Africa8.5.1. Middle East and Africa Research Antibodies Market, By Type, 2018 to 20248.5.2. Middle East and Africa Research Antibodies Market, By Research Area, 2018 to 20248.5.3. Middle East and Africa Research Antibodies Market, By Technology, 2018 to 20248.5.4. By Country8.5.4.1. Saudi Arabia8.5.4.2. Israel8.5.4.3. Others8.6. Asia Pacific8.6.1. Asia Pacific Research Antibodies Market, By Type, 2018 to 20248.6.2. Asia Pacific Research Antibodies Market, By Research Area, 2018 to 20248.6.3. Asia Pacific Research Antibodies Market, By Technology, 2018 to 20248.6.4. By Country8.6.4.1. China8.6.4.2. Japan8.6.4.3. South Korea8.6.4.4. India8.6.4.5. Others

9. Competitive Environment and Analysis9.1. Major Players and Strategy Analysis9.2. Emerging Players and Market Lucrativeness9.3. Mergers, Acquisitions, Agreements, and Collaborations9.4. Vendor Competitiveness Matrix

10. Company Profiles10.1. ProSci Incorporated10.2. Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc10.3. General Electric10.4. Merck KGaA10.5. Roche Diagnostics10.6. Janssen Global Services, LLC10.7. Rockland Immunochemicals Inc.10.8. ACROBiosystems10.9. Bio-Rad Laboratories, Inc10.10. Agilent Technologies, Inc.

11. Appendix

For more information about this report visit https://www.researchandmarkets.com/r/4pzxlp

Research and Markets also offers Custom Research services providing focused, comprehensive and tailored research.

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Outlook on the Worldwide Research Antibodies Industry to 2024 - Mergers, Acquisitions, Agreements and Collaborations - GlobeNewswire

Immunology

Megatrends: 5 Ways To Think Long Term In The Downturn – Seeking Alpha

May 1, 2020 medical

Transcript

Oscar Pulido: The world is already starting to shift because of the coronavirus and there's no doubt this will continue in the months and years to come. Healthcare companies and researchers around the world are mobilizing to create a vaccine, technology has shifted to emphasize solutions for working at home, and clean energy has become even more in focus as companies and individuals think about their impact on the environment.

Today on The Bid, we're talking about megatrends. The long-term societal shifts that we believe will persist through the pandemic. We'll talk to Jeff Spiegel, U.S. Head of Megatrends and International ETFs about the long-term investment themes that emerged from the 2008 financial crisis, which megatrends are resonating most in today's pandemic and how to think about investing for the long term. I'm your host, Oscar Pulido. We hope you enjoy.

Jeff, thank you so much for joining us today on The Bid.

Jeff Spiegel: Oscar, thanks so much for having me. It wasn't a long commute as we're coming in live from my apartment in New York City.

Oscar Pulido: Oh, for sure. I'm in my home studio as well and been getting used to it over the last couple of weeks. So, I can definitely relate to that. Let's talk about the megatrends. It's actually been a topic that has come up a couple of times on The Bid, certainly a topic of interest for our listeners. Now, these are, as I understand, long-term structural forces that are shaping the way we live and work. But perhaps you can give us a quick refresh on what are the exact megatrends that we're watching.

Jeff Spiegel: So, as you said, megatrends are long-term transformational forces that are really changing the way we live and work. And these are structural opportunities with long-term catalysts that really make them feel almost inevitable, and that's in contrast to more purely cyclical opportunities as captured through traditional sector strategies and the like. Today, a number of them are actually having really once-in-a-lifetime moments where those long-term forces are aligning with short-term cyclical drivers.

Simply put, the world will be different after COVID-19. One example of that is going to be the acceleration of key megatrend themes that were already coming and are now going to arrive even faster. So, really to your question, as part of a firm-wide effort across active investors, index investors, the BlackRock Investment Institute, key external innovators and thought leaders, we've identified five. The first is technology: areas like AI, cybersecurity, networking, data. They're not mutually exclusive though, so tech does play a role in all five. The second is demographics. Here, we're talking about aging populations. For the first time in less than 10 years, there will be more grandparents than grandchildren in the U.S., more over 65s than under 18s, and that will be true worldwide shortly thereafter.

Third is urbanization, which is about the move to cities. Over 75% of people live in the cities and developed markets in Latin America. In the EM markets in Asia and Africa, that number is less than half. We're seeing that drive a massive catch-up effect as these places urbanize, and at the same time, the U.S., Japan, Europe, other developed areas seek to revitalize their own infrastructure. Fourth is climate change. Here, we're talking about firms on the cutting edge of driving a clean green tomorrow through clean energy, electric vehicles and the like. And lastly emerging global wealth. One to two billion people will enter the middle class in the coming decade or so and 90% of those people live in emerging market countries in Southeast Asia.

Oscar Pulido: So, Jeff, as you mention these five megatrends, it sounds like investing in any one of these is really about investing in multiple sectors of the economy. In other words, it doesn't sound like just technology companies capture one of these trends or just healthcare. It feels like you would have sort of cross-sector type investments if you were trying to pursue these megatrends. Is that the right way to think about it?

Jeff Spiegel: Exactly. So, we think that megatrend strategies should be designed in a way that they're unconstrained, and what I mean by that is you've got to go global, you've got to get across sectors. So much technological innovation is getting adopted in non-technology areas. Think about the use of robotics in industrials, the use of artificial intelligence in communication services, the use of big data techniques in medicine. Traditional sector strategies tend not to really capture megatrends, which again, gets back to that point that they tend to be cyclical.

Oscar Pulido: So, if megatrends are long-term and structural and meant to persist over many decades, you mentioned your commute is quite short these days. We're all living in a very new and different reality these last few weeks and it's difficult to think about the long term when it feels like we're just thinking about day-to-day and what the news flow is going to look like. So, do we have examples from the past where we've had these crises or these downturns where we've actually seen a long-term structural trend emerge?

Jeff Spiegel: Yeah, so it's absolutely hard to think long term right now and investors around the world are looking at their portfolios and seeing declines at the same time as they have real fears from job security to health and safety, and that make this moment especially tough. But we know that market downturns are also opportunities, rebalancing the equities during these declines allows investors to recoup their losses and often then some when the market does eventually come back and it always has.

So, cyclical downturns are often pivotal moments for megatrends. They may suffer with the broad market in a sell-off when selling can appear kind of indiscriminate across asset classes and market segments. Sometimes they can sell-off even harder than the overall market, but they tend to outperform in the aftermath. So, e-commerce is a really neat example of that. Before the financial crisis of 2008, 2009, we all knew e-commerce was coming, more shopping was happening online, firms were starting to dominate retail sales. Nonetheless, at the lows of that downturn, e-commerce was down nearly 70%, even more than the S&P 500 at its lows during that same period, but not only did e-commerce recover harder and faster than the S&P, it out-performed over the next 10 years through to today by well over 20 times the returns of U.S. equities broadly1. That means the financial crisis was a huge opportunity to buy the e-commerce megatrend at significantly reduced valuations. We think it's not unlikely that a new set of megatrends, today's equivalent to e-commerce, have the same potential coming out of this downturn.

Oscar Pulido: Well, you're certainly right, e-commerce was a trend that persisted throughout 2008 and judging by the lobby of my building, it seems to be doing pretty well during the corona crisis as well.

Jeff Spiegel: Yeah, so I would say that the farthest I am traveling on most days is to go down and get those packages and that is one of the highlights of my day at the moment to be sure.

Oscar Pulido: You mentioned that we'll likely see some new megatrends that will persist through today's market volatility. So, give us a sense of what are some of the things that you're seeing that you think we'll be talking about in the months and years ahead.

Jeff Spiegel: The megatrends we're focusing on right now are actually being accelerated by the crisis itself, and therefore the long-term structural shifts we've been anticipating seem likely to come to pass even faster. And this is true in a few areas in particular, and I'll break it down by megatrend. Within our technological breakthrough megatrend, we're seeing a huge move to virtual work, that's driving networks and computing systems, big data, cybersecurity, and at the same time, AI is being deployed to understand the pandemic's course, track infections and accelerate the testing of treatments. In demographics and social change, we're seeing the two most game-changing areas of medical breakthrough, genomics and immunology, stand unsurprisingly on the forefront of understanding and treating the disease. And then as far as urbanization and climate change, these are places where we expect that subsequent rounds of government stimulus have the potential to drive outperformance as people are put back to work in these areas. So, we know the long-term structural theses behind these megatrends. In addition, we've got these catalysts coming out of this crisis where some of these key areas of innovation are really playing a role and offering some hope and helping.

Oscar Pulido: You mentioned a number of interesting themes. So, let's deep dive. Let's start with the genomics and immunology. There's obviously a race around the world to produce a vaccine in pretty short order. So, how are we seeing this play out and what implications does this have for after a vaccine is ultimately developed?

Jeff Spiegel: So, the vaccine is a key question for society and our safety. In a lot of ways, I think there's actually a lot more to unpack there for investors. We saw genomics and immunology as key areas of medical innovation before all this started. Now genomics is helping researchers understand the coronavirus' RNA. Breakthroughs in mRNA sequencing are allowing scientists to decode the disease at an incredibly rapid pace. That's not actually the vaccine development itself, but it's enabling quick drug development and experimental trials for vaccines. So, the major drug companies at the forefront of vaccine development are relying on a range of firms in the field of genomics to enable them. For investors, that's a reason to think about the theme versus betting on the individual company that makes it to the vaccine, it's also a lot less risky than trying to pick that single stock winner.

Likewise, immunology is helping to incubate treatments that work directly with our immune systems. One of the most promising potential areas here is stimulating the body's immune system by replicating and transferring antibodies from those who have already successfully beaten the virus. Not to mention, repurposing drugs in immunology that are used in places like rheumatoid arthritis, an autoimmune disease; not to create vaccines, but to treat those who are already infected. Again, a range of firms across the theme are set to benefit rather than the one firm with the end product that's ultimately adopted. The latter, that one firm is really hard to identify. It's no coincidence that these exciting areas of medicine are providing the solution to this challenge. The crisis is really only hastening the realization that will see more innovation and investment in these spaces that were the most promising in delivering personalized medicine via genomics and areas like cancer treatments through immunology and immunotherapy long before today's crisis and that will continue to play a role long after.

Oscar Pulido: Let me also ask you about the technology side of this. When you were mentioning some of the megatrends that we think will persist throughout this volatility, we're working from home, we're doing more video conference, audio conference these days just to stay connected at our respective jobs or with our families. Do you think that even after people begin returning to working in offices, will there be more remote work than there was prior to the crisis?

Jeff Spiegel: So, I think the short answer is yes, right? If we think about this, in a matter of weeks, virtually all corporate employees around the globe started working from home, non-essential medical visits became virtual, so did learning for hundreds of millions of students, maybe more than that. So, companies leading in remote software have therefore seen their products leveraged at record rates. 5G and networking connectivity are also therefore in focus. So are data center wreaths which have seen surging demand for their services which power the transition. Is it the short term, is it long term? The answer is both.

The fact that the internet of things is expected to double from 30 billion devices now to over 75 billion in coming years, that was true before this pandemic, but it's not any less true today. In fact, we see the cyclical tailwind pushing connectivity forward, meaning that the future is actually coming faster. So, companies have invested in work from home tech. They are learning what many tech companies have known and been adopting for years that virtual work is actually effective and therefore likely to proliferate after this massive unplanned beta test that was effectively sprung on the world.

Oscar Pulido: And I imagine this has implications for cybersecurity, right? If companies have more of their employees working from home, they have to be thinking about the security risk. So, obviously more people on the networks and more people on the internet. How are companies thinking about the risks to this?

Jeff Spiegel: So, before we moved into a work from home world or WFH as the kids are calling it. Though I'm not entirely sure why since that's actually more syllables rather than fewer. Before that, only 15% of U.S. risk executives felt their firms were well-prepared for cyber threats. So even as the number of cyber criminals on the FBI's most wanted list went from a handful to over 40 in just the last few years, there is still that feeling of unpreparedness. That's pretty scary at a time when we're that much more exposed through virtual work. It means firms are massively investing in the space. And so, if we're right that virtual working actually grows and is accelerated once we're able to return to our offices then that investment in cybersecurity only continues.

Oscar Pulido: Jeff, you've also alluded to AI a couple of times or what we call artificial intelligence. It was a topic of interest even before we got into this corona crisis, but it seems to also be playing a role in a variety of ways in which we're responding to this crisis.

Jeff Spiegel: Yeah. This is a great example of where the structural and cyclical are colliding and really pushing megatrends forward. Year after year, we've been applying artificial intelligence to solving new problems from chess to logistics, to voice-activated assistance, that's a long-term trend. And today, AI is being applied to a range of crisis areas: understanding and mapping the pandemic, keeping track of those under quarantine. Not to mention, many leading AI firms are actually lending their AI super computing power to drug companies enabling testing of treatments in days versus the months it would take using natural or more traditional computing power.

Oscar Pulido: And lastly, you mentioned clean energy, and you also touched on climate change being one of the five megatrends. We've definitely seen a growing interest in sustainability and BlackRock has certainly been very vocal about the belief that climate change represents investment risk in portfolios. But can you talk a little bit about the growing interest in sustainability and maybe more specifically renewable power. How do you see this continuing through the pandemic?

Jeff Spiegel: So, over the last few years, we've seen a surge around clean energy adoption and usage. In fact, governments have pledged two trillion dollars of renewable investments in the near term. In a push driven by governments themselves, businesses, consumers, all around the world looking to go more green. Another stat I really like, 80% of U.S. consumers aged 18 to 34 are actually willing to pay more for a low or zero emission vehicle. That's the long-term trend. Short term, the stimulus the government is focused on so far is getting cash into the pockets of those who need it and ensuring the financial system keeps functioning.

In the midterm, in subsequent rounds of stimulus, governments around the world are likely to put people back to work through infrastructure projects and a lot of those, we think, will be focused on clean energy. So, despite the precipitous decline of oil, clean energy has been doing well and we expect that to continue or even accelerate even further when we see those later rounds of stimulus putting people back to work in helping us build out a green economy.

Oscar Pulido: So, a recurring point that you've made is that these investment themes, these megatrends, are much more structural than they are cyclical. Meaning, that they're meant to last over many years as opposed to just a short time period. So, I guess with that, what's the most important thing for investors to know?

Jeff Spiegel: The most important thing for investors to know unquestionably is that staying invested and rebalancing the equities is critical in a downturn. As we discussed, it's also hardest in a downturn. Long-term structural shifts do present an opportunity to do that. So, I would encourage investors to look at areas with a wide range of names poised for that long-term outperformance and names that were poised for it even before this crisis. Just take as a bonus, if they're being accelerated forward, by helping us manage the pandemic at the same time. Think long term, that's always the key.

Oscar Pulido: Well, and it's sound advice, Jeff. Particularly these days when we're sort of thinking about the day-to-day and the pandemic. But when it comes to investing, thinking long-term has proven to be a recipe for success. So, thank you so much for joining us today. It was a pleasure having you on The Bid.

Jeff Spiegel: Pleasure to be here. Thanks, Oscar.

1 Source: Bloomberg, indices used: MSCI ACWI Internet and Catalog Retail Index and S&P 500 as of March 30, 2020. Index performance is for illustrative purposes only.

This post originally appeared on BlackRock.

Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.

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Megatrends: 5 Ways To Think Long Term In The Downturn - Seeking Alpha

Anatomy

Justice League Anatomy: The 5 Weirdest Things About The Flash’s Body – CBR – Comic Book Resources

April 28, 2020 medical

Just because they break so many laws of physics doesn't mean the Flash writers don't care about science. Quite the contrary, the "Flash Facts" section of the classic Silver Age Flash comics always went out of their way to try to explain just how the Scarlet Speedster's powers worked and just what happens to a body under the super-speed conditions he so often finds himself in.

The result is a whole lot of pseudo-science and it actually makes a lot more sense than one might think. The human body just wasn't built to go at the near-light speeds, but theFlash is no ordinary human. On top of the Fastest Man Alive, he could be the Strangest Man Alive. Here are the five weirdest things about the superhero's anatomy.

RELATED:Wally West's Brief Tenure As An Internal Revenue Service Agent

There's a whole lot more to the Flash than just being able to run fast. The same way super-strength might come with making super jumps or super throws, moving extremely fast comes with a whole host of other powers that don't immediately come to mind. The Flash can create whirlwinds by spinning his arms, run across the surface of water and even phase through solid objects.

By vibrating the molecules of his body extremely fast, the Flash is able to "slide" his molecules through thoseof other solid objects. It's an extremely difficult move for a speedster to master and often comes later in the Flash's career, whenever a new hero takes up the mantle. Flash's vibrational abilities show just how thorough he is -- it's not just his legs that are fast, it's his everymolecule.

RELATED:DCAU Flash Vs DCEU Flash: Who Is Better?

If Flash's super speed goes down to the level of his molecules, it must affect every aspect of his body -- even his brain. Flash's neurons fire at incalculable speeds, allowing him to enter a mental state in which time appears frozen and he can work through complex problems in mere moments. Just imagine having a million thoughts a moment piled on top of sensory data from the environment. This ability served Barry Allen extremely well as a forensic scientist, allowing him to analyze the minutiae of a crime scene with a glance and then process all the data with his verifiable super computer of a brain.

Flash most often needs to activate the ability, but there is a subconscious level on which his instincts can kick in to protect him. Since he is unconsciously processing all that information at every moment, even the slightest shift in air pressure can tune him in to a potential threat. Call it a "Speedster Sense" or a "Barry Tingle," but it's proved to be one of the hero's most valuable abilities. Since he's too fast for most villains to touch, they will often try surprising him before he knows he's in a fight -- but that's a lot easier said than done.

RELATED:X-Men Anatomy: The 5 Weirdest Things About Juggernaut's Body, Explained

Onecan only go so far into the science of discussing the Flash before it's an absolute necessity to discuss the Speed Force. Conceived as a way to explain many of the more physics-breaking aspects to the Flash's powers, the Speed Force is an extradimensional power source which both fuels and protects all the speedsters of the DC Universe. The Speed Force it the answer to almost any question that asks how something a speedster can do is even possible. One of the most potent examples is friction.

Any object moving as fast as the Flash would necessarily generate a lot of heat as the molecules of the moving object bounce against the surrounding air or the ground beneath. That heat should incinerate the clothing and even the skin of someone moving so fast, but the Speed Force generates a protective envelope around the Flash and anyone he is touching that keeps them safe from harm. The same holds true for the air that presumably blasts into the Flash's eyes, which explains why he's one of the few speedsters who doesn't need goggles.

It's clear at this point that every aspect of the Flash moves far faster than a normal human and that holds true even for his metabolism. The most common example of his super metabolism is his appetite, as the Flash constantly scarfs down feasts of food in fractions of a second to feed his ferocious appetite. The super metabolism isn't entirely an inconvenience -- he was once poisoned by Poison Ivy and managed to run the toxins out of his system before they ever hit his heart. His grocery bill might be sky high, but it's better than a hospital bill.

RELATED:Justice League Anatomy: The 5 Weirdest Things About Deathstrokes Body

Ordinarily the Flash does not visit the hospital much in the first place, as his body actually heals far faster than a normal human as well. Generally his white blood cells and regeneration go to work immediately following any injury, allowing him to recover from near-fatal wounds in almost no time at all. Bart Allen even had his kneecap blown off and was in well enough shapeto run himself out of the emergency room shortly after.

There can be a downside to this, however, as the healing process can happen so fast that bones will grow back improperly. He's even had to break a bone all over again just to reset it, which is a major inconvenience in the midst of battle. Still, it's certainly better than the alternative and the Flash certainly isn't going to give up a handy healing factor just because it causes some unpleasantness every so often.

Keep Reading:Justice League Anatomy: The 5 Weirdest Things About Superman's Body

Avengers: Endgame Theory Changes EVERYTHING About Cap's Happy Ending

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Justice League Anatomy: The 5 Weirdest Things About The Flash's Body - CBR - Comic Book Resources

Human Behavior

‘Planet of the Humans’ Review | Movies – Santa Fe Reporter

April 26, 2020 medical

Theres a fine line between delusion and illusion.And both are part of the myth of a clean energy that magically lifts humanity from its crash course with the planet. Rather than drastically reduce our consumption of resources such as water, fossil fuels and hard-rock minerals, humans are more content to seek technological fixes that wont work anyway.

Thatis the thesis of Planet of the Humans. Move over, Al Gore. Henceforth, Earth Day belongs to Jeff Gibbs.

Gibbs directs and reports the documentary produced by Michael Moore and released on April 21. Its free on YouTube for 30 days and is a must-watch.

Just as billions in federal aid have been dumped into the economy in recent weeks from COVID-19 stimulus and relief packages, the US has poured fountains of money over the elusive concept of better energy, and were not saving the planet as much as were flailing to save our standard of living.

Gibbs highlights how the global environmental cost of mining, production and disposal of solar and wind technology dont get primetime play. Were still using fossil fuel-based infrastructure to build them. Plus, the same evil corporate overlords who run technological/industrial society (read: The Koch Brothers) run the strategy and profit bases that prop up the green energy movement.

The movie is an enjoyable if also gut-rotting indictment of Big Environment and some of its figureheads, including Vermonter Bill McKibben, and yes, Gore, in particular.

Catch candid interviews with other people youve never heard of who run solar farms, make policy and study science and human behavior. Just about everything with the word green in front of it takes a punch through this lens: biomass, biofuels, divestment/investments, natural gas and even giant mirrors in the California desert; the takeover of the environmental movement by capitalism, Gibbs says, is complete.

The planned release date couldnt have anticipated how so many people would be feeling this day, and that while were under stay-at-home orders from a public health threat, we see how the deep scar of humans on the environment can heal in perceptible ways.

There is much to mourn. And we can change. But how?

9+Must-watch cold water on a hot topic-It might burst your bubble

Planet of the HumansDirected byGibbsYouTube,NR, 100 min.

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'Planet of the Humans' Review | Movies - Santa Fe Reporter

Anatomy

‘Extraction’ | Anatomy of a Scene – The New York Times

April 24, 2020 medical

Hi. My name is Sam Hargrave, director of Extraction. So at this point, were in the middle of what we would term a oner. Its a long continuous shot that we came up with, a way to do that kind of a unique chase scene. And were escaping with Chris Hemsworth, who plays Tyler Rake, and Rudhraksh Jaiswal who plays that Ovi. Alright, kid, you trust me? No. Good. This jump and at that moment, we had a stitch. So we could infuse our actors into the action and then use the doubles for the dangerous part. And for that jump, I was actually on a wire leaping behind our stunt doubles. And coming down those stairs, thats me running backwards with a camera, trying to keep our actors in frame, keep up with their speed, not fall on my butt. We work our way through this whole series of hallways. And when we enter this room, we actually, on that door kick, we moved to another location. So thats a different day of shooting, different time. Stay on my shoulder, all right? And this fight here, weve got Randeep Hooda and Chris Hemsworth going at it. They spent weeks rehearsing together. Because the beauty of this is it looks sloppy. It looks like theyre struggling for their lives. And it looks messy. But that comes from hours of rehearsal so they could put the acting into this. So again, here, we build in a hidden cut where we can put the doubles in. And as you see, the camera goes down with them. Again, thats me on a wire, jumping over a balcony, and gliding down with them. And for that, we kind of set that all up. We built the balcony. It didnt exist. We parked the truck in the right place. And the stunt team rehearsed and rehearsed and rehearsed to get the timing of that right and the distancing. And it was really challenging to kind of keep both actors in frame for that fall just because the nature of the jump. I mean, Im on a wire, trying to jump with a camera, keep them in frame. And then when we land in the streets, what we thought would be really fun was to have the actors interacting with the environment, the vehicles passing by. This is just a day in the life of for these people. But these guys are locked in a life and death struggle with knives. And yet, life goes on. You know, this is busy street. People are watching like theyve gone to the cinema. And you know, again, this hours of rehearsal with these two actors so that we could have the intensity that we needed. And then a little shock value here. [GRUNTING] [CAR SCREECHES] The thing that was interesting about this moment is, and what we tried to do to make kind of a unique perspective, was do what people arent expecting, which you take out your hero. Just take him out of the fight. And then focus on the bad guy. And we just thought it was fun, a different way to kind of follow action was to leave your hero out of it. So youre thinking, wait, what happened to Rake? Is he going to come back? And you know, leave people wanting more.

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'Extraction' | Anatomy of a Scene - The New York Times

Human Behavior

Here’s what COVID-19 teaches us about ‘social learning’ and the environment – World Economic Forum

April 23, 2020 medical

- The dire social and economic impact of COVID-19 could worsen environmental destruction in the long run.

- But the pandemic is also teaching us how to use individual choices to tackle a global disaster.

- Social learning is a powerful tool for lasting change. It involves people learning from each other and adapting their behaviour as a result.

The horrors of the global human death toll of COVID-19 confront me daily in the news and through my concern for my own vulnerable parents. The economic and other hardships so many are facing due to physical distancing measures also deeply disturb me. Moreover, as a global change ecologist whose lens has been the whole wide world and everything in it the millions of other species, the air we all share, and the water we all depend onthe environmental dimensions of COVID-19 are impossible for me to ignore.

Let me be clear: COVID-19 itself is not good for any of the seventeen UN Sustainable Development Goals. Human wellbeing, the economy and the environment are all interrelated, and the pandemic is certainly not helping us achieve our goals for protecting them. However, the pandemic is teaching us lessons in human behaviour that could bring us closer to these goals in the future.

A mere year and a half ago, in October 2018, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published an alarming Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 degrees C. It started with a quote from The Wisdom of the Sands, by Antoine de Saint-Exupry: Your task is not to foresee the future, but to enable it.

The report called for rapid, far-reaching, and unprecedented changes in all aspects of society to avert the worst disasters of climate change. It predicted dire consequences for human well-being, the economy and the environment if those warnings were not heeded. Despite the shift in language from climate change to climate emergency over the past year by many institutions, we have not seen these recommendations being implemented.

And yet, COVID-19 has forced us to make dramatic changes in every area of life in the space of only a few weeks. Cities and entire countries were shut down overnight, leaders declared national and international emergencies, people and institutions adapted to unprecedented societal change.

The pandemic is a challenge for all the SDGS

Image: UN

COVID-19 is also transforming our relationship to the environment. The origins of emerging infectious diseases, including COVID-19 but also HIV, Ebola, Nipah, SARS, pandemic influenza and others, are at least partly linked to the growing human impact on the environment. Acknowledging this is crucial as we try to address the root causes of pandemics. These days, many cities are reporting cleaner air and lower pollution. In some places, this is literally changing how we perceive nature. Some communities in India are able to see the snow-capped Himalayas for the first time in their lives. However, these changes are also revealing the magnitude of these chronic problems, and the importance of tackling them. As the pandemic limits access to green spaces such as parks and conservation areas, many are becoming painfully aware of how fundamental these natural oases are to their wellbeing.

It appears that in times of crisis, we connect even more strongly with our natural surroundings. In the short term, this may well have a beneficial impact on some aspects on the environment. However, in the long term, the picture is more complex. Economic recession could exacerbate environmental degradation, as resources are diverted from efforts to protect and restore habitats. It could also worsen existing poverty traps. As the UN Climate Change Executive Secretary said: COVID-19 is the most urgent threat facing humanity today, but we cannot forget that climate change is the biggest threat facing humanity over the long term." The acting executive secretary of the UN Convention on Biological Diversity put it bluntly: The message we are getting is if we dont take care of nature, it will take care of us.

Consider the quote from Antoine de Saint Exupry, however: we need not foresee the future, we just need to enable it. This is where the lessons on human behaviour come in.

The power of "social learning": when people learn from each other and change their behaviour accordingly.

Some of my own research on the power of human behavior to shape environmental trajectories, such as biodiversity loss and climate change, suggests social learning is a significant factor in changing systems. That is to say, people learn from each other, and change their behaviour accordingly.

Right now, we are learning valuable lessons in resilience and human adaptability. We are learning how quickly humans can respond when faced with a common enemy, be it a novel virus or the well-established physics of climate change. Let us examine these lessons, reflect on our new respect for the natural world, and consider what enabled us to adjust to such profoundly challenging and unfamiliar new norms. Let us take note of how some of the ideas put forward by different countries now are very much in line with UN sustainable development goals, such as the elimination of poverty, good health and wellbeing, reduced inequality, and responsible production and consumption. And lets imagine how we might be able to harness these lessons to reduce the risk of catastrophes - disease, climate change or other threats - in the future.

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World Economic Forum articles may be republished in accordance with our Terms of Use.

Written by

Madhur Anand, Associate Professor, University of Guelph

The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone and not the World Economic Forum.

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Here's what COVID-19 teaches us about 'social learning' and the environment - World Economic Forum