San Joaquin County likely weeks away from seeing COVID-19 restrictions eased further – Stockton Record

Cassie Dickman|The Record

Coronavirus infections and hospitalizations are continuingon a downward trend in San Joaquin County following a post-holiday surge that lasted through the beginning of January. But that doesn't meanthe county is out of the woods just yet.

San Joaquin Countycould remain in the purple tier,the most restrictive ofthe COVID-19 pandemic classifications, for at least several more weeks, county Public Health Officer Maggie Park said.

"There's really no way to really predict because so much of it depends on human behavior," Park said told the county's Board of Supervisors at its meeting Tuesday.

There is also some concern about what might be coming in the next few weeks due to Super Bowl get-togethers, Park said.Variants in the virus that were recently discovered to have entered the country could also affect spring infection rates, she said.

California returned to its four-tiered system of county-by-county restrictions last month after a majority of the state was placed under strict lockdown orders in December to keep hospitals from being overrun.The color-coded tiers are part of the statewide Blueprint for a Safer Economy and indicate which activities and businesses are open based on local case rates and test positivity.

Park said the county's COVID-19 positivity case rate of 31.7 per 100,000 population was well above the state's threshold rate of 7 per 100,000 to move into the less-restrictive red tier.

"So we still have a ways to go," Park said.

California's purple tierallowsfor businesses such as restaurants to resume outdoor operations, while hair and nail salons are also allowed to reopen. Other local businesses, such as bars that only serve beverage, still cannot be open.The county has not qualified to be in the red tier since the middle of November.

But Park said the county has seen a drastic reduction in COVID-19 case rates in the last month.

The county saw an adjusted case rate in the 70s as recent as the week of Jan. 19. It has since dropped more than 40 points.

"We came down very rapidly actually," Park said. "So if we keep to progress, it could be in a month or two."

San Joaquin County saw an average weekly rate of more than 4,500 new COVID-19 cases from the end of November into the New Year, according to county public health data. The week ending Jan. 9 saw the highest number of COVID-19 cases since the pandemic began, soaring past 5,000 for the first time since the pandemic began.

In the weeks that followed, newly confirmed coronavirus cases have steadily continued to drop. Public health data reportsthe week ending Feb. 6 sawjust under 1,300 new cases.

"The surge that we had during the November to December timeframe is coming down nicely," Park said Tuesday.

Park also noted that hospitalization rates in the county have followed suit.

"We are finally below the number that we had in the hospital at the summertime peak," Park said.

The county's seven area hospitals are currently treating 130patients that have contracted the virus, the county's Emergency Medical Services Agency reported Wednesday afternoon. That's more than 130 less than the summertime high of 262 patients.

However, Park noted intensive care units are still at 0% bed capacity. County hospitals have a total of 99 licensed ICU beds, which have largely remained full for months.

As of Wednesday, county hospitalsreported treating 130 adult ICU patients, 56 of which have been diagnosed with COVID-19. Park said Tuesday that 41 patients being treated at county hospitals were on ventilators.

"We still have some quite sick people in our hospitals and the numbers are still higher than, of course, we would like them to be," Park said.

County EMS also reported four people had died from COVID-19 from Tuesday to Wednesday.

San Joaquin County has seen 64,396total cases of COVID-19 since the pandemic began and 929deaths from the disease, according to the county's COVID-19 information dashboard. About 3,646 of reported cases have still not yet recovered.

Record reporter Cassie Dickman covers Stockton and San Joaquin County government. She can be reached at cdickman@recordnet.com or on Twitter @byCassieDickman. Support local news, subscribe to The Stockton Record athttps://www.recordnet.com/subscribenow.

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San Joaquin County likely weeks away from seeing COVID-19 restrictions eased further - Stockton Record

[Full text] Disease Prevention Behavior During the COVID-19 Pandemic and the Role | PRBM – Dove Medical Press

Introduction

In 2020, the WHO reported1 that the number of COVID-19 cases had exceeded 65 million and that the number of COVID-19 deaths had exceeded 1.5 million. The COVID-19 outbreak has become a global pandemic and is the largest public health crisis in recent human history. In January 2020, Taiwan enhanced the efficacy of its disease surveillance and reporting system by including laboratory tests of respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. The outbreak was temporarily controlled by sentinel surveillance of respiratory infection and severe or novel influenza infection.2 However, since no treatment or vaccine for COVID-19 is currently available, how to encourage the practice of effective prevention behaviors is a crucial issue.3

The extended parallel process model (EPPM)4 is a useful theoretical framework not only for understanding how and why a perceived threat and the perceived efficacy of a response to the threat potentially affect fear arousal, but also for understanding the mechanisms of change in the prevention and protection behaviors of an individual in response to the experience of fear.5 A perceived threat is cognition of a threat or a thought about a threat; perceived efficacy refers to the perceived feasibility and effectiveness of a recommended response to a threat.4 The high explanatory power of EPPM has been verified in many health and illness-related studies that have used this model to evaluate how individual perceptions of a threat and the efficacy of a response to the threat affect various human motivations, cognitions, and behaviors.68 Another important construct in EPPM is fear appeal because it can induce the internal physiological and emotional arousal needed to motivate behavioral change.4 Since the fear appeal is known to mediate the effects of the perceived threat and perceived efficacy on COVID-19 prevention behavior, this study investigated the mediating role of fear appeal rather than performing a more general investigation of fear arousal.

According to the EPPM, whether fear contributes to the success or failure of a response to a threat depends on two factors: perceived threat and perceived efficacy.4 The first factor, perceived threat, has two underlying dimensions: perceived severity of the threat and perceived susceptibility to the threat. Witte4 defined perceived severity as the beliefs of the subject regarding the significance or magnitude of the threat and defined perceived susceptibility as the beliefs and expectations of the subject regarding the risk of experiencing the threat or the risk that the threat will occur.4 The second factor, perceived efficacy, also has two underlying dimensions: perceived self-efficacy and perceived response efficacy.7 Perceived self-efficacy refers to the self-perceived ability of an individual to implement a recommended response,4 and perceived response efficacy refers to the extent to which the individual perceives that a recommended response is effective for averting a threat.4 Moreover, the EPPM proposes that the perception of a threat determines how an individual reacts in the physical environment, ie, the physical response to the threat whereas perceived efficacy determines how the individual reacts internally, ie, the emotional response to the threat.4 Based on the above discussion, we propose that EPPM is a useful theoretical perspective for understanding how the psychological mechanisms and the decision-making processes of individuals affect their disease prevention behavior in the context of the COVID-19 outbreak. In this study, fear arousal is defined as the physiological or psychological response aroused and/or experienced by an individual in response to fear;8 prevention behavior is defined as individual behaviors that are mainly motivated by the goal of decreasing or alleviating the risk of COVID-19 infection.9

Self-esteem is defined as the correspondence between the ideal and actual self-concept of an individual.10 Self-esteem is related to various psychological outcomes, including psychological adjustment and prosocial behavior11 and is classified as high self-esteem and low self-esteem.12 High self-esteem is characterized by strong confidence and belief in oneself and high satisfaction with oneself.13 Low self-esteem is characterized by lack of confidence and the tendency to feel badly about oneself.11 Studies have verified that low self-esteem is associated with unhealthy behaviors and practices. For example, Ramiro et al14 and Bermudez et al15 reported that people with low self-esteem tend to engage in high-risk sexual behavior. Kima et al16 also found that people with low self-esteem are more likely to experience mental health problems compared to people with high self-esteem.

Interestingly, some scholars have reported that self-esteem has little or no effect on disease prevention and treatment behaviors. For example, Yuan et al17 excluded self-esteem from their regression equation used for empirical analysis of self-perceived quality of life in Chinese patients with stoma. Arsandaux et al18 further noted the high heterogeneity of variables used to measure self-esteem in the literature and the high heterogeneity of approaches used to validate and implement measures of self-esteem. Although studies of the role of self-esteem in health status and health prevention behaviors are inconclusive, they do suggest a positive link. Thus, this study investigated the relationships among the perceived threat of COVID-19, the perceived efficacy of the response to the threat, and the fear aroused by the disease. The moderating effects of self-esteem characteristics (ie, high versus low self-esteem) on these relationships were also investigated.

Previous studies have investigated and compared health behaviors in populations with specific demographic characteristics, eg, age and gender. This study defined age as the period of time a person has been alive.19 Studies have reported salient differences between the health behaviors of adolescents and young adults. For example, Ames et al20 that different age groups exhibit different effects of age stereotypes on the sense-making process, which then results in differences in self-perceived health behaviors.21 In terms of gender, which refers to the physical condition of being male or female,22 sociodemographic data collected in Olson et al23 revealed gender differences in unhealthy behavior. In young adults in the US, for example, the authors reported unhealthy behavior (eg, poor diet) in 40% of males versus only 22% of females. Conversely, some scholars have reported no evidence of a link between gender and the practice of unhealthy behaviors.24 Given the link between gender and health behavior reported in these studies, both age and gender were used as independent control variables in the analysis of COVID-19 prevention behaviors of the participants in this study.

In sum, the aim of the present study was to improve understanding of underlying factors in the performance, improvement, and management of COVID-19 prevention behaviors by using EPPM as an explanatory framework. Context-specific factors considered in the analysis of COVID-19 prevention behaviors included self-esteem and demographic characteristics (ie, age and gender).

Escalation of the COVID-19 pandemic in the past year has motivated studies of disease prevention behaviors related to COVID-19. Three streams of research related to the COVID-19 pandemic have emerged in the behavioral science literature: recommended preventive behavior, comparative analysis, and cognitive behavior.

Studies of recommended preventive behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic include an empirical survey performed in China by Ye et al25 that compared the adoption of basic, advanced, and excessive preventive behaviors in different groups of demographic characteristics. They found that predictors of proper preventive behavior include perceived sensitivity, perceived severity, perceived benefits, cues to action, and knowledge levels whereas predictors of excessive prevention behavior included perceived sensitivity and knowledge levels. Goh et al26 investigated the problem of controlling COVID-19 transmission in Taiwan prisons. Their prison-specific guidelines for responding to COVID-1927 included supplying each inmate with two surgical masks per week, requiring the use of surgical masks during any social interaction, checking body temperature twice daily, and enforcing the practice of social distancing during all activities. Additionally, all prison staff were required to wear surgical masks and were required and perform health self-monitoring, including body temperature check. Equipment, fixtures, and areas of the prison accessible by the prison population were disinfected daily with a 75% alcohol solution. To minimize the effects of psychosocial risk factors (ie, stress and negative emotions), Ricci and colleagues28 recommend behavior strategy for prevention of global health and psychosocial stress during the current lockdown, including encouraging older persons to be physically active, and eating and sleeping on a regular schedule.

Comparative analysis, which is the second stream of research in COVID-19 prevention behavior, includes Lin et al29 who investigated factors associated with adoption of social distancing behaviors in China and Israel. The authors found that constraints are negatively related to the adoption of social distancing behaviors whereas confidence is positively related to these behaviors. Constraints and behaviors were directly related in Israel but were indirectly related in China. A possible explanation for the inconsistency is cultural differences.30 In another study by Chen and Chen,31 a comparison of COVID-19 prevention behaviors between urban and rural residents in China found that prevention behaviors were more likely in rural residents. However, urban and rural residents did not significantly differ in behavioral intention, subjective norms, or knowledge of preventive behaviors. The probable explanation is that rural residents have relatively less media exposure and less experience and skill in appraising the veracity of health-related information. Thus, health information regarding COVID-19 prevention behavior should consider the urbanization level of the target audience and should be tailored accordingly.

In the early stage of the pandemic, Meier and colleagues32 compared public belief in the effectiveness of protective measures and identified the communication channels commonly used to acquire COVID-19 information in three European countries (Netherlands, Germany, and Italy). The authors reported that the perceived effectiveness of a complete social lockdown was lower in the Netherlands compared to Germany, and Italy. Additionally, compared to residents of Germany and the Netherlands, residents of Italy practiced social distancing more frequently and were more likely to practice self-imposed hygiene measures and social distancing to avoid infection. Moreover, healthcare officials and professionals were the COVID-19 information sources most preferred by European residents. The least preferred information sources were social media, friends, and family.33 In contrast, for Hong Kong residents, most preferred sources of COVID-19 pandemic information are social media and the Internet.34 Although the populations of Norway and Sweden have similar ethic and sociodemographic profiles, similar age distributions, and similar healthcare systems, the public reaction to the COVID-19 pandemic differed between the two countries.35 According to Helsingen et al35, Swedes have relatively more trust in their healthcare authorities. In contrast, Norwegians tended to have a higher risk tolerance during the pandemic. The level of trust in the healthcare system and self-reported compliance with preventive measures were high in both countries despite the differences in infection control measures. Interestingly, they also found that compared to Swedes, Norwegians were more likely to adopt a sedentary lifestyle during the pandemic and were more likely to overeat.

The third stream of research in COVID-19 prevention behavior is cognitive behavior. Human behavior is shaped and controlled by personal cognition in a social environment.36 Cognitive behavior is a major focus of the previous literature on the adoption of preventive health behaviors. For example, Storopoli et al37 applied recreancy theory in a Brazil study of factors associated with the adoption of preventive behavior to cope with the pandemic crisis. They reported that the effect of perceived vulnerability depends on confidence in oneself and confidence in social institutions (ie, government, hospitals, the media, etc.);38 moreover, they found that risk perceptions are associated with the adoption of preventive behaviors. In contrast, another study by Bashirian et al39 applied Protection Motivation Theory to predict COVID-19 prevention behaviors practiced by healthcare workers. The authors concluded that threat perception and coping appraisal were predictors of protection motivation to practice COVID-19 prevention behaviors. Moreover, they suggested that hospital managers should support and encourage the development of self-efficacy in their staff and that training programs for hospital staff should provide knowledge in the effectiveness of protective behaviors.40 Furthermore, Li and Zheng41 applied a Risk Information Seeking and Processing model to identify the key determinants of online information-seeking behavior and disease prevention intent during the COVID-19 outbreak in China. Compared to younger respondents in their sample, older respondents were less likely to seek COVID-19 information on the Internet and had lower intention to adopt preventive behaviors. Therefore, they recommended that health authorities should specifically target older populations by using online communication platforms preferred by this age group (eg, WeChat for social media).

Generally, the recent literature has not only substantially enhanced understanding of how intrinsic and extrinsic factors impact individual behaviors and attitudes associated with the adoption of disease prevention behaviors during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Figure 1 is the research model (plus or minus signs in parentheses indicate positive or negative relationships, respectively, between two constructs in research hypotheses). To understand the relationships among several constructs, all hypotheses were posited and examined.

Figure 1 Research model.

Empirical studies by Chen & Yang8 found that a fear appeal can motivate individuals to engage in disease prevention behavior by increasing the perceived threat of the disease and by arousing fear of the threat. A subsequent study by Ellis et al42 reported similar results in a population of HPV patients, ie, a public health campaign effectively motivated HPV patients to undergo regular testing by arousing their fear of death from HPV. These studies indicate that threat orientation impacts how an individual responds to a fear appeal.43 Thus, we hypothesize the following:

H1. Perceived threat is positively related to the fear aroused by the threat of a disease.

Previous research supports the notion that perceived efficacy is an important determinant of preventive health behaviors. Perceived efficacy is also an important determinant of the fear aroused by the threat of a disease, ie, ability to control fear increases as perceived efficacy increases.43,44 An empirical study by Shi & Smith4 found that people engage in danger control processes (ie, fear control processes) when they perceive that their self-efficacy is higher than the threat. Thus, we propose the following hypothesis:

H2: Perceived efficacy is negatively related to fear arousal by the threat of a disease.

Achar et al44 reported that the purpose of a fear appeal during a disease outbreak is to encourage the practice of disease prevention behavior by individuals. Moreover, Smith et al45 and Kotowski et al46 used the EPPM to evaluate the effectiveness of a fear appeal for encouraging the use of hearing protection, eg, hearing protection in construction workers. They found that, when a fear appeal was used to encourage the use of hearing protection, use of hearing protection was more likely in individuals who perceived that the threat of noise-induced hearing loss was high and had high self-efficacy compared to those who perceived that the threat was low and had low self-efficacy. Thus, we propose the following hypothesis:

H3. Fear aroused by a fear appeal is positively related to COVID-19 prevention behavior.

Holahan and Suzuki47 and Levy and Myers48 found that, compared to younger people, elderly people (especially those classified as young-old, ie, age 6574 years) were more likely to take action to prevent health problems because they were more focused on achieving health maintenance goals. Ek49 supported the general view that older people are generally viewed as being more health conscious compared to younger people, and who tend to less concerned about the health consequences they will experience later in life. These age differences in health behavior patterns tend to increase as age increases.

In terms of gender, Ek49 reported that women have more interest in and pay more attention to potential global pandemics compared to men. Compared to men, women usually have better health-promoting practices and behaviors compared to men. Moreover, women tend to engage in prosocial behavior more frequently than men do.50 Therefore, women may be more likely to practice COVID-19 prevention behavior compared to men. Thus, we propose the following hypotheses:

H4a: The practice of COVID-19 prevention behavior is better in the elderly than in the young.

H4b: The practice of COVID-19 prevention behavior is better in women than in men.

Self-esteem is a personal trait. Blank et al51 reported that people with high self-esteem have a high tolerance for risks associated with unhealthy behavior (eg, frequent and/or heavy drinking) because they tend to perceive that the risk of such behaviors is low. Kavussanu and Harnisch52 reported that high self-esteem is significantly associated with high task-orientation as well as high perceived efficacy. Furthermore, people with high self-esteem tend to engage in risky behavior to cope with fear, anxiety, and failure or to satisfy their need for excitement. People with high self-esteem are also characterized by excessive optimism, a sense of invulnerability, and a tendency to set unrealistic goals.53 Based on the above literature, we hypothesized that high self-esteem was a moderating variable in the associations among perceived threat, perceived efficacy, and fear arousal.

Regarding low self-esteem characteristics, van der Heijden et al54 investigated the interaction between self-esteem and outcome cognition and concluded that people with low self-esteem tend to have either a negative or neutral self-concept. Thus, compared to people with high self-esteem, those with low self-esteem are relatively less likely to exhibit positive cognition (eg, high perceived efficacy) about themselves but are more sensitive to negative cognition and more likely to exhibit negative cognition (eg, high perceived threat) than positive cognition.55 In brief, self-esteem is a moderating variable regardless of self-esteem.56,57 Thus, we propose the following hypotheses:

H5a: High self-esteem decreases the positive impact of perceived threat on fear arousal.

H5b: High self-esteem increases the negative impact of perceived efficacy on fear arousal.

H5c: Low self-esteem increases the positive impact of perceived threat on fear arousal.

H5d: Low self-esteem decreases the negative impact of perceived efficacy on fear arousal.

This study adopted an approach of convenience and cross-sectional sampling for data collection. Empirical data were collected by an online questionnaire survey performed from May 24 to June 10, 2020. Google Doc was used to construct an online questionnaire. All participants were adults on the friend community lists in the LINE app used by the authors. Those who received the survey message were asked to send it to others in their friend community. Out of 1013 questionnaires retrieved, 1012 were valid and complete. Of the 1012 participants with valid and complete questionnaires, 623 (61.6%) were men, and 389 (38.4%) were women. The largest age cohort was 5059 years (344, 34.0%) followed by 4049 years (208, 20.5%). The age and gender of the participants were consistent with the demographic data for LINE mobile app users reported by LINE Corporation Taiwan in the year 2019 (58% male and 42% female).58 In terms of age and gender, therefore, the sample was considered representative of the overall population of LINE users in Taiwan. Monthly income was 8341666 USD in 29.0% (293) of the participants and 16672666USD in 28.0% (283) of the participants. Additionally, 50.1% (507) of the participants had a bachelor's degree, and 42.3% (428) had a graduate degree. Table 1 shows the demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of the respondents in this study.

Table 1 Demographic and Socioeconomic Characteristics of Respondents (n=1012)

To ensure scale validity, measurement items were adapted from the literature. Three experts in public health, medical informatics, and nursing were invited to review the measurement items before the survey was performed. Specifically, the experts evaluated the logical consistency, ease of understanding, and sequence of the questionnaire items and evaluated their relevance in the context of the COVID-19 outbreak. Based on their suggestions, minor modifications of the questionnaire were made. Next, a pilot test of the questionnaire was performed in 55 participants. Based on their comments and suggestions, the measurement items were further modified. All survey items were measured using a 7-point Likert scale ranging from 1 (strongly disagree) to 7 (strongly agree).

The questionnaire was divided into two parts. The first part collected basic demographic and socioeconomic data such as gender, age, income, and education. The second part collected data used for measurements of the study variables. This instrument contained 23 items in five main constructs: the trait self-esteem was measured with four items adapted from Altmann and Roth.59 Two aspects of perceived threat were surveyed: perceived severity and perceived susceptibility. Perceived severity was measured with three items and perceived susceptibility was measured with two items adapted from Gerend et al60. Perceived efficacy included perceived self-efficacy and perceived response efficacy. Perceived self-efficacy was measured with four items adapted from Gerend et al60 whereas perceived response efficacy was measured with three items adapted from Cooper et al61. Fear of death was measured with three items adapted from Ingrid and Michael62. Prevention behavior was measured with four items adapted from Cooper et al61.

The SmartPLS 3 and SPSS version 22 software were used for statistical analyses. The SmartPLS software was used because it supported partial least square (PLS) structural equation modeling (SEM) techniques and their objectives, such as predicting key target constructs and exploring or extending an existing structural theory.63 Hair et al63 suggested that a minimum sample size of 100150 is needed to perform SEM techniques. The total sample size in this study met the requirement for SEM with maximum likelihood assessment.

Data analysis was performed using the two-step approach suggested by Anderson and Gerbing:64 estimating a measurement model and then examining structural relationships among latent constructs. The main purpose of the two-step approach was to assess the reliability and validity of the measures before applying them in the full model.

The measurement model was evaluated by reliability and validity analyses. Table 2 shows Cronbach , combined reliability (CR), and average variance extracted (AVE) values for the measurement model. In reliability tests, Cronbach values for all indicators exceeded 0.7, which indicated acceptable construct reliability.65 Convergent validity was tested according to factor loadings, AVE and CR. All factor loadings exceeded 0.5. Factor loadings for two items (SE1: 0.551, FA2: 0.578) were lower than the standardized threshold of 0.7,65 and both items were excluded from the analysis. All AVE values exceeded 0.5, and all CR values exceeded 0.7. Thus, the scale had high convergent validity and validity.

Table 2 Measurement Model Statistics

Discriminant validity was tested by comparing the square root of AVE with the correlation coefficient between the indicators. Table 3 shows the discriminant validity results. For all indicators, correlation coefficients were less than the square root of AVE, which indicated good discriminant validity as defined in Fornell and Larcker.66 Generally, the questionnaire in this study had high reliability and validity.

Table 3 Construct Correlations and Square Roots of Average Variance Extracted (AVE)

Since smartPLS does not provide a measure of the overall goodness of fit to the data, R-square value was used to measure the goodness of fit.67 The R-square values were 31.5% for fear arousal and 19.0% for prevention behavior. An R-square value below 10% implies a poor model fit to the data.68 All R-square values for the research model in the current study exceeded 10%.

Figure 2 shows the normalized path coefficients and path significance values (ns: non-significant, *p<0.05, **p<0.01, ***p<0.001). Perceived threat had a significant positive effect on fear arousal (=0.268, t=9.007, p<0.001), which supported H1. Perceived efficacy did not significantly affect fear arousal (=0.019, t=0.619, p>0.05), which did not support H2. Fear arousal had a significant positive effect on prevention behavior (=0.119, t=4.603, p<0.001), which supported H3. Regarding relationships between demographic characteristics and prevention behavior, age had a significant positive association with prevention behavior (=0.136, t=4.990, p<0.001), which supported H4a. Gender did not have a significant association with prevention behavior (=0.045, t=1.418, p>0.05), which did not support H4b.

Figure 2 Structural equation modeling analysis results for research model.Notes:***p<0.001; ns, non-significant.

This study used hierarchical regression analysis to verify the moderating effect of self-esteem characteristics on the relationship between individual perceptions of the COVID-19 epidemic (ie, perceived threat of the disease, perceived efficacy of the response, and fear arousal). Figure 3 shows that high self-esteem had a significant negative moderating effect on the relationship between perceived threat and fear arousal (=0.472, t=17.694, p<0.001). However, high self-esteem did not have a significant moderating effect on the relationship between perceived efficacy and fear arousal; hence, H5a was supported, but H5b was not.

Figure 3 Moderating effects of self-esteem characteristics on the relationship between perceived threat and fear arousal.

On the other hand, low self-esteem had a significant moderating effect on the relationship between perceived threat and fear arousal (=0.606, t=26.303, p<0.001) while a low self-esteem had no moderating effect on the relationship between perceived efficacy and fear arousal; thus, H5c was supported, but H5d was not.

In this study, a theoretical model based on EPPM was used to explore psychological response mechanisms and prevention behavior in individuals in the context of the COVID-19 outbreak. This study had several meaningful findings.

First, the applicability of the EPPM perspective of disease prevention behavior during the COVID-19 epidemic was verified. Two critical psychological dimensions of perceptions were examined in the participants: perceived threat and perceived self-efficacy. According to the results of this study, perceived threat increases fear arousal while perceived efficacy decreases fear arousal. In the context of the COVID-19 outbreak, perceived threat is a key factor in fear arousal. This finding is partially supported by Ellis et al42 in a study of HPV patients, who reported that a high perceived threat of HPV triggers a high fear of death whereas high perceived efficacy decreases fear of death.

Steinhart and Jiang69 used Terror Management Theory to explore how perceived environment threat and perceived efficacy affect mortality salience. They found that, in a high-threat situation, fear and anxiety about the threat may intrude on the decision-making process; additionally, egotism may decrease self-knowledge. According to Social Cognitive Theory developed by Bandura,36 individuals are unlikely to perform a specific behavior (eg, a COVID-19 prevention behavior) if they lack confidence in their ability to perform the behavior (ie, if they have low self-efficacy), particularly in the case of a voluntary behavior. Therefore, we speculate that these results may be explained by the unique circumstances of the emergence of COVID-19, a novel infectious disease that has high mortality and transmission rates and has no known medication treatment or vaccines. Thus, the typical psychological response to the high perceived threat of COVID-19 disease was low self-confidence in the ability to cope with the disease.

Secondly, the results demonstrate that fear arousal has a significant positive association with COVID-19 prevention behavior. This finding is consistent with Cooper et al61 who reported that fear arousal is a strong predictor of individual health-related behavior. The current study provides additional empirical evidence that fear arousal in response to a health threat is positively associated with an action to protect against the threat.

Regarding the role of demographic characteristics, our results revealed that age had significant positive associations with COVID-19 prevention behaviors. That is, the practice of COVID-19 prevention behavior tended to be better in older participants compared to younger participants.

The survey results are consistent with the finding by Yu70 that the COVID-19 prevention behavior of elderly people in South Korea reduced infection risk not only in their own age group, but in all age groups. The finding that prevention behavior is better in older participants has important healthcare implications because people in older age groups are generally more health conscious than those in younger age groups.49 Notably, however, our survey results revealed no significant gender difference in COVID-19 prevention behaviors. In contrast, prior studies, eg, Hayashi et al51, Ek50, Yu et al71 have reported that women tend to practice health-promoting behaviors more frequently than men do. Since the perceived health threat of COVID-19 was generally much higher than that of other chronic or infectious diseases, we speculate that, regardless of gender, all participants who perceived a high COVID-19 threat were motivated to practice disease prevention behavior.

Finally, regarding the role of personal characteristics, this study found that self-esteem is a moderating variable in the relationship between perceived threat and fear arousal. Participants with high self-esteem had a lower perceived risk of COVID-19 infection and lower fear arousal compared to those with low self-esteem. Additionally, improvements in perceived risk and fear arousal were larger in participants who had high self-esteem. These findings were expected since high self-esteem is associated with good self-management.69

A theoretical contribution of this study is the use of the EPPM framework to investigate the psychological response and the disease prevention behavior of individuals during a COVID-19 outbreak. Expanding the scope of the EPPM framework for application in the context COVID-19 confirmed that, in terms of fear arousal, perceived threat is more important than perceived efficacy. This study also revealed the roles of demographic characteristics (ie, age and gender) in disease prevention behavior, which has not been discussed in the previous literature on COVID-19. Finally, this study revealed that self-esteem has a moderating effect on the relationship between perceived threat and fear arousal. Clarification of the moderating role of this personality trait enriches the theoretical framework and improves understanding of the roles of psychological and behavioral attributes in the ability of individuals to cope with the COVID-19 epidemic.

Regarding practical implications, this study found that perceived threat, fear arousal, and prevention behavior were lower in people with high self-esteem compared to those with low self-esteem. Thus, people with high self-esteem are at higher risk of COVID-19 infection and transmission, and the designs of healthcare interventions for a COVID-19 outbreak should specifically target this group. Self-esteem was also positively associated with socioeconomic characteristics such as education and income.72 Moreover, people with high self-esteem tend to overestimate their knowledge and competence, which limits their ability to recognize the need for behavioral change and limits their commitment to behavioral change.13 Hence, we suggest that public health policymakers consider these personal and socioeconomic characteristics when establishing regulations for monitoring and controlling the transmission of COVID-19 during this epidemic. Additionally, self-esteem should be considered in the design of public health campaigns to encourage disease prevention behavior such as mask-wearing.

On the other hand, low self-esteem has a positive moderating effect on the relationship between perceived threat and fear arousal. From a terror management perspective,73 we suggest that public health communications should be designed to increase the perceived threat of COVID-19 and fear arousal in people with low self-esteem in order to promote disease prevention behavior in this group.

Finally, since our results demonstrated that COVID-19 prevention behavior was better in the elderly than in the young, we suggest that education, training programs, and public communications related to disease prevention should specifically target young people. For example, public health information campaigns during a COVID-19 outbreak can target young people by recruiting television and internet celebrities to act as government spokespersons for epidemic prevention policies.74

This study has some limitations. First, the investigated participants were mainly recruited from friends communities of LINE app users in Taiwan. The findings might not be applicable in other countries/regions. For example, the perceptions and psychological responses of the participants may have been affected by cultural characteristics unique to Taiwan. Another limitation is the potential for sample selection bias. That is, the analytical results for the constructs in this research would likely differ between a sample of LINE users and a sample of the general public. Finally, in accordance with Pfattheicher et al75 and Lunn et al76 fear arousal was measured primarily in relation to fear of death. However, the likelihood of death from COVID-19 is not constant across the population. For example, older people who contract COVID-19 are likely to exhibit a fear of death since COVID-19 mortality is highest in older age groups whereas younger people who contract COVID-19 are most likely to have a fear of spreading the virus to others. Thus, this limitation should be considered when interpreting and applying the results of this study.

In summary, the EPPM model in this study obtained clear evidence that self-esteem and demographic characteristics are predictors of COVID-19 prevention behaviors. We expect the analytical results of this study to be useful for helping healthcare professionals and administrators understand the need for a systematic, multi-faceted, and integrated approach to promoting COVID-19 prevention behavior.

This study complied with the Declaration of Helsinki guidelines for research involving human subjects. The study protocol was certified by the ethics committee of Taizhou University Hospital (No. 2020 079). All participants in the online-based questionnaire survey gave written informed consent to the study. All participants in the online survey gave informed consent by completing an online form designed by the authors. The study brief informed them that they were free to withdraw at any time, should they wish to do so. Survey data were stored on a password-protected computer, which housed all data.

The research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or non-profit sectors. Dr. Hsien Cheng Lin has recently become affiliated with College of Cultural Tourism & Comprehensive Health, Taizhou University, Taizhou City, Zhejiang Province, China.

The authors declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.

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[Full text] Disease Prevention Behavior During the COVID-19 Pandemic and the Role | PRBM - Dove Medical Press

Study: Yes, More Parking Does Put More Cars on the Road – Streetsblog New York

This article originally appeared on the Sightline Institute, a sustainability think tank for the Pacific Northwest. It is republished with permission.

Do cities create greener lifestyles? Or do they just enable them?

Its very, very, very clear that people who live closer to other people drive less. But how much of this is due to the fact that people who were already predisposed to driving lessthose of us who dont particularly enjoy driving, for exampleare deliberately living where parking is scarce and buses are frequent?

A forthcoming academic paper finally begins to answer this crucial question. Its breakthrough conclusion: Bigger parking lots make us drive more.

Even if we ignore the breathtaking economic costs of dedicating scarce urban space to car storage, mandatory parking isnt an all of the above strategy that simply lets people choose their favorite mode of transportation. Instead, as UCLA professor Donald Shoup put it in 1997, parking spaces are a fertility drug for cars.

Our buildings shape our behavior

Speaking scientifically, the key to proving a cause-and-effect relationship is finding a randomized sample of human behavior.

And in their new paper, What Do Residential Lotteries Show Us About Transportation Choices?, four Californian academics found such a sample: the free, site-specific lotteries that San Francisco uses to select who gets to live in the price-regulated homes of new apartment and condo buildings. (Because this is San Francisco, a two-person household generally can qualify while earning up to $118,200, equivalent to 120 percent of city median income. So these findings dont apply only to people who would struggle to afford a car.)

Its so hard to do this kind of research, wrote Jessica Roberts, a principal at Portland-based Alta Planning + Design and one of the countrys leading experts on the science of transportation behavior. Their elegant experimental design is a huge breakthrough.

After surveying the auto ownership and basic transportation habits of the residents of 2,654 homes in 197 projects built since 2002, the authors (Adam Millard-Ball, Jeremy West, Nazanin Rezaei, and Garima Desai) found that projects with more on-site parking induce more auto ownership:

Buildings with at least one parking space per unit (as required by zoning codes in most U.S. cities, and in San Francisco until circa 2010) have more than twice the car ownership rate of buildings that have no parking, the authors write.

Do buildings with less parking and car ownership limit the job prospects of their occupants? Apparently not. The team found no correlation between parking supply and employment status at the time of their 2019 survey.

They also found that more parking led to more driving, less transit use, and less walking. And they checked the locations of the 197 projects and found that non-automotive transportation choices seem to be induced by higher AllTransit scores (a measure of nearby mass transit quality by street address), higher WalkScores (a measure of the diversity of destinations within walking distance, inspired in part by an old Sightline blog post), and higher BikeScores (a measure of the quality of nearby bike networks).

Its not just that people who enjoy walking to the store will choose to live near stores. Its that living near stores makes us more inclined to walk, and less inclined to drive.

We shape our buildings, Winston Churchill said. And afterward, our buildings shape us.

This addresses one of the most important questions in urban environmentalism

This paper doesnt close the book on the questions of how much our buildings shape us, and in which ways, and which of us they shape more or differently. Its one study in one city from one year.

But it is a big new confirmation of one of the central hypotheses of the modern pro-housing movement.

Weve known that Amsterdam, built mostly before the automobile was invented, has much lower energy use per person than Seattle, despite their comparable population and wealth. Weve known that this pattern holds within countries, too. When youre measuring greenhouse emissions per person within a country, density is all but destiny. Weve known that if everyone on the world could consume energy like Netherlanders rather than like Cascadians, it would be far easier to find our way to a planet that can remain both prosperous and habitable for human life.

But at least in the United States, there hasnt actually been much solid evidence that building cities differently will actually change our behavior enough.

This new study strongly suggests that its possible, all these centuries later, to build new Amsterdams.

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Study: Yes, More Parking Does Put More Cars on the Road - Streetsblog New York

Clinical Hypnotherapist Janene Verabian Featured as Contributing Writer for Addicted2Success.com – PRNewswire

NEWPORT BEACH, Calif., Feb. 9, 2021 /PRNewswire/ --Respected for her tender but direct guidance, Clinical Hypnotherapist and Relationship Expert Janene Verabian calls out common ways we hold ourselves back in her just released article on Addicted2Success.com. Self-Sabotage: How to Stop Holding Yourself Hostage outlines 8 ways in which many people hold themselves back from their goals both personally and professionally. The article also highlights 3 distinct ways that you can get out of your own way and on to living your best life. With over a decade of experience, Janene believes that when your motivating factor is strong enough, you will take intentional steps to create real change. Her professional goal is to help her clients stop the cycle of endless therapy and instead, create sustainable real change that is empowering.

"I don't speak from the cheap seats and value being able to provide straight talk that empowers people to move through past trauma once and for all." Janene Verabian CHt, CLC, CWK

About Janene Verabian CHt, CLC, CWK:Janene Verabian is recognized as Southern California's Premier Certified Clinical Hypnotherapist and Relationship Expert. She has dedicated her career to helping others move through past trauma in order to live happy, fulfilled, and meaningful lives. She is a graduate of the prestigious Hypnotherapy Academy of America - an approved school of the American Council of Hypnotist Examiners which sets the highest standards for hypnotherapists. It is also considered the most advanced hypnotherapy institute in the world, as the curriculum features an extensive program on the study of human behavior and the mind. Specializing in past trauma healing through Clinical Hypnotherapy and Relationship coaching, Janene has earned a reputation for results through over a decade of personalized guidance for men and women. Consistently strengthening her professional "toolbox" she regularly pursues advanced education and holds additional certifications as a Wholistic Kinesiology Practitioner, Certified Life Coach, Gottman Institute Certified Level Two Couples Therapist and is currently working on advanced studies through Harvard University.

Learn More:JaneneVerabian.com | Facebook | Instagram | LinkedIn

Contact: Paula SteurerSterling Public RelationsDirect: 949. 200. 6566[emailprotected]

SOURCE Janene Verabian

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Clinical Hypnotherapist Janene Verabian Featured as Contributing Writer for Addicted2Success.com - PRNewswire

Panthers DE Stephen Weatherly Reveals His Artistic Side on Netflixs Blown Away – Sportscasting

Linebacker Stephen Weatherly is a promising defender, but to stereotype him as just an NFL player sells him short. Hes among the most fascinating characters in the NFL. In his first four years with the Vikings and hislast year with the Carolina Panthers, hes a fascinating example of how athletes pursue other interests. Art, music, TV Weatherly does it all. Perhaps, this is best shown by his recent appearance on NetflixsBlown Away.

Coming out of Vanderbilt, details Pro Football Reference, Weatherly alwayssaw the NFLas an opportunity not only to play the game he loves for a living but to do so while pursuing other interests away from the sport. He was a sociology major at Vanderbilt and used his education to learn the intricacies of human behavior. Perhaps, this can explain hissuccess as an NFL player. After all, defenders have to read the offense on a whim and predict where the ball is headed.

He made it to the Vikings roster as a rookie, although he played in only two games. The following year, he came off the bench for all but one game en-route to seven tackles. However, it was the 2018 season that changed everything. That year, splitting his time between the bench and the starting lineup, Weatherly tackled 35 opponents and got the first three sacks of his career.

It was a welcome party for the longshot football player. He continued that promising penchant for defense the following year, although he spent more time coming off the bench. Weatherly started all nine games he played this year with his new team, the Panthers, but he still embraces other interests during his off time.

Weatherly recently spoketo the Panthersabout all of his interests away from football. To him, it started from a young age.He explained:

From a young age, y mom would tell you that she always knew that I was destined for greatness like any parent says about their kids, right? But she wanted me to be multifaceted because its really easy as a young kid to be gifted in the sports realm, to be known as just an athlete.

Once he got to college, however, Weatherly made the most of his education and helped show off his unique brand of entertaining others. One of his more ambitious projects was a self-made game show hed host out in public as a way to study human behavior.

I studied sociology at Vanderbilt, so experimenting with humans is highly frowned upon. So I offered money just to see [what people would do], Weatherly said. I just talked to random people at the mall and gave them my own money. We were there for like an hour and it was crazy. We got some hilarious reactions, but just to see people being nice to each other felt good.

From the nine instruments hes played to his interest in the arts, Weatherly is unlike anything the NFL has seen. This is how he wants it.Football is a major part of my identity, but its not all of it, Weatherly told the website. Its true. Now, hes spreading his name beyond football to a far more niche market the glass-blowing one.

RELATED: Aaron Maybin Turned $25 Million Rookie Contract Into Art Teaching Job

Weatherly took up an interest inglass-blowing as a young man, according to SB Nation. When Netflix looked for judges on their glass-blowing competition,Blown Away, this made him the perfect celebrity judge. Sitting alongside experts of the field, Weatherly did not feel like an ignorant athlete giving halfhearted feedback. He was a man with an evident passion for the craft.

Weatherlys episode featured people paying homage to their college past. For the Vanderbilt alumni, this was the perfect storm of interest. He didnt just judge people on their basic craft. Instead, the NFL star gave thoughtful feedback and fit right in. This is what makes him so fascinating. While Weatherly is a serviceable defender in the NFL, his side hobbies paint a man who cannot be defined by one skill or craft.

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Panthers DE Stephen Weatherly Reveals His Artistic Side on Netflixs Blown Away - Sportscasting

Think forecasting COVID in Colorado was tough in 2020? It will be tougher in 2021, experts say – Colorado Springs Gazette

A mix of policy and behavior helped Colorado dodge a bullet late last year, contributing to a cumulative 2020 COVID-19 death count far below some of the worst-case scenarios predicted by the state's modeling team in the fall, one of its members says.

But were other factors at play? Was the modeling off? Did Colorado buckle down on preventative measures in the nick of time? Was it sheer luck or perhaps a mix of factors?

It's impossible to say precisely, experts contend. But one thing is certain: The job of those who attempt to forecast the pandemic hasn't gotten any easier in the new year, given nascent variables such as the vaccine rollout and the development and spread of mutations.

Infectious disease epidemiologists are "trying to change their shoes while riding a bicycle in the middle of a hurricane," saidDr. Elizabeth Carlton, assistant professor at the Colorado School of Public Health and member of the state's COVID-19 modeling team,a multidisciplinary team comprised of experts at colleges and universities throughout the state.

Says Dr. Phoebe Lostroh, a Colorado College microbiology professor with a history of highly accurate El Paso County virus projections: "It's just as complicated as forecasting the weather, if not more so."

COVID directly caused 4,215 deaths in Colorado last year less than a quarter of one of the worst-case scenarios proffered by the state's coronavirus modeling team last fall, according to preliminary data released Friday by the state that is expected to be finalized later this spring.

A Dec. 4 report from the state's COVID-19 modeling group warned that deaths could reach as high as 7,650 by the end of the year if the state saw an 11% reduction in transmission control a measure that monitors how well Coloradans are adhering to pandemic-related behavior and policy changes and a 30% drop in social distancing due to the holidays. At the time, it was on track for 5,600 deaths.

An Oct. 28 report, just 15 days ahead of the state's all-time high in new daily diagnoses, warned that Colorado's death toll could reach as high as 17,500 by the end of 2020 with a decrease in transmission control due to the holidays. At the time it was on track for 7,600 deaths.

Explanations for the lower-than-expected death toll are complex, involving a mix of factors like policy, behavior, politics and perhaps even factors like climate and the health of Coloradans prior to the pandemic.

"We don't generate forecasts, we generate projections," Carlton said "what if" scenarios for a multitude of factors including how quickly the virus is spreading and how well Coloradans are complying with transmission-control measures.

As to why the state's COVID death toll came in lower than anticipated, "the week before Thanksgiving we saw this dramatic reduction in the amount of population mixing and the contacts people where having," she said.

Consequently, hospitalizations began to fall by early December, and deaths followed suit, with the usual lag of a couple of weeks.

"It was some combination of policy and behavior that started sometime in late November, and we're in a much better place because of it," she said.

Lostroh's take: "The worst-case scenarios took into account the worst possible choices, and I don't think we made all of those," she said, speaking of Coloradans on a whole.

The models being produced on a state level are "so much more sophisticated than what I'm doing," Lostroh said, adding that longer-term forecasting, versus the week-by-week forecasting she does, is "inevitably more inaccurate."

The Harvard grad's modeling is based off of two "very simple assumptions": One, that the "virus is spreading exponentially," and two, that "every infected person infects, on average, more than one other person."

Assuming human behavior isn't changing, "when these two things are true, my forecast has been accurate, for weeks and weeks," Lostroh said. "When either is not true, it's no longer as accurate."

The biggest wild card in modeling, Carlton contends, is humans behavior.

"I think the hardest thing to predict in any model is how people are going to behave," Carlton said. "It's much easier to predict how the virus is going to behave."

A race between vaccine, variants

To make matters more complicated, there are new variables that weren't present a couple of months ago. For one, there's the vaccine rollout, contributing to a rising herd immunity. And then there are variants like the highly transmissible and potentially more lethal B.1.1.7, which triggered alarm when announced by U.K. officials in December and caused strict lockdown measures in southern England. There is also L452R, first seen in Denmark last spring and recently linked to several large-scale outbreaks in California.

Both have been found in Colorado, though only 33 variant cases had been identified in the state, with 13 cases under investigation. Only 30% of the state's positive cases are being screened for the B.1.1.7 variant, and genome sequencing to confirm it is only performed on approximately 3% of positive tests statewide, state health officials cautioned in a Friday news release.

"One of the challenges for any modeling team is responding in real time" to changing factors, Carlton said. Are COVID patients spending less time in the hospital? Are deaths dropping due to advancements in treatment? What mutations are present in Colorado, and how rapidly are they spreading?

The state's COVID modeling team is now building vaccination scenarios into its models, she said, as well as variant scenarios. But both are a "moving target."

For instance, it's unknown how rapidly the B.1.1.7 variant is spreading in the state.

"Right now it looks like in Colorado it's not spreading very rapidly," she said, adding that in the U.K., the variant "held at low levels for several months and then increased very rapidly."

Why would it spread so rapidly there and not here?

"I've been banging my head against the wall, trying to figure it out," she said.

The further ahead one tries to forecast, "the more uncertainty you have and the more you have to make educated guesses," Lostroh said.

But one thing is fairly certain.

"I think it's a race between the spread of that variant and vaccinating people," she said.

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Think forecasting COVID in Colorado was tough in 2020? It will be tougher in 2021, experts say - Colorado Springs Gazette

Why trophy hunting is on the wrong side of history and evolution | TheHill – The Hill

What if a greater race of beings were to make flageolets (flutes) or buttons out of our bones?

Henry David Thoreau

The so called civilized people? They had no excuse. They hunted for what they called trophies, for the excitement of it, for pleasure, in fact.

Romain Gary,The Roots of Heaven,1958

Compassionfor animals is intimately associated with goodness ofcharacter,and it may be confidently asserted that he who is cruel to animals cannot be a goodman.

Arthur Schopenhauer

"As for trophy hunting, I think it is probably the kind of animal killing that most resembles murder - murder in the first degree. It is done with planning (premeditation) and without provocation or biological justification. The animals are entirely innocent creatures killed only for ego-gratification and fun. It's time we began to see this practice as akin to murder."

Kirk Robinson, executive director of theWestern Wildlife Conservancy

Photo credit: Lysander Christo

Mankind's true moral test, its fundamental test (which lies deeply buried from view), consists of its attitude towards those who are at its mercy: animals. And in this respect mankind has suffered a fundamental debacle, a debacle so fundamental that all others stem from it.

Milan Kundera,The Unbearable Lightness of Being

Henry David Thoreau never made it to Africa but must have known what Europeans did to the great, great elephant herds centuries ago. Hundreds of thousands killed for fun. The big game hunters dont like to admit their betrayal of life because its big business. Men like Hemingway who created a lifestyle out of brutality and unabashed vanity. Thoreau surely knew what had happened to the great whale pods of his time. But unlike the Inuit of the Arctic, whalers rarely ate whale. The Inuit would have been aghast at the way the white man treated whales and the way they massacred them without mercy in the hundreds of thousands. And later on in the 20th century with harpoon guns. They would have said we had lost our minds. And when one hears Paul Watson describing his defense of whales and what the Russians were doing, taking the purest oil on earth in order to lubricate Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles, he knew we had gone totally mad. We have lost our bearings as a species. The whalers of old, they happily took their oil and their teeth and their baleen. Whales became a resource and their great populations were wasted. Elephants became a resource and they were exterminated to a vestige of what they once were.

This argument very much like the feud between the Hatfields and McCoys will no longer hold weight in 20 or 30 years. If nature is still kicking, for many species, it will be a miracle. There is a catastrophe brewing for much of the natural world thanks to climate change. Seals are dying, whales are being beached and land mammals are starting to suffer as the 300 or so elephants can prove this summer in Botswana. We can no longer afford to assassinate the innocent.

My grandfather didnt like fascists and the subjugating mindset that came with it. He and LeClerc defeated a Panzer brigade of the Nazi army, dead set on taking Paris in August 1944. It was neutralized and France was saved. He was fighting for freedom and as such was captivated by the great writer Romain Gary whose book TheRoots of Heavenis one of the supreme masterpieces of the 20th century. Morel, the central character, is fighting for the rights of elephants who at mid-century may have numbered perhaps several million. Elephants for Gary were the worlds great sentinel for freedom. So to think that there are those who have enjoyed and actually looked forward to putting a bullet in an elephants brain is an atrocity of the highest order, totally counter to the tribes who used to hunt elephants just to survive. Hunting in tandem with poaching devastated their numbers over the last half century. Today maybe 400,000 forest and savanna elephants remain. The entire ecology of half of Africa depends on them.

Who are the would be warriors, that would love to open up the entirety of Yellowstone? Trophy hunters of course. Not to feed oneself but to say one has conquered a grizzly, to say one has vanquished a mountain lion. To adorn ones mantelpiece. The ultimate act of betraying the wild, which is the greatest legacy of this very young country. Something for which the Native nations would be aghast. Killing for fun? Instead of having a sanctuary to go to, unique in all of America and the most remarkable we have outside of Alaska, some would have it open season to bagging grizzlies or wolves or bears and cougar. Quite simply astounding that this scenario could even be contemplated. Rob Wielgus, one of the preeminent predator experts in the country from Washington State University demonstrates how the trophy hunting of adult male lions increases the number of lions and the number of attacks on livestock. Very similar results with leopards in Africa with their highly acute territorial imperative. Robs work helped stop mountain lion hunting in the state. But of course, certain statesmen like Joel Kretz, a trophy hunter from rural Washington, was elected on a platform to hunt lions.And not coincidentally the greater percentage of lions reside in his district. The previous administrationattempted to push this extreme group of people run wildlife management on our national wildlife refuges. It was only a recent ruling that just managed to stop scheduled hunts in Wyoming and Idaho in the greater Yellowstone area that would have allowed 23 bears to be killed.

Opening up Yellowstone to hunting probably wont happen because a measure of sanity will strike down this nightmare scenario, but the fact that it was wished, is the height of folly that our species owns. Most recently it was Edward Abbey who would have howled with suffocating embarrassment for what we had done to America when he exclaimed, God bless America. Lets save some of it. And if a certain breed of huntsmen had had their way a great portion of the 48 states in terms of wilderness would have been utterly sacrificed.

North America has long had its breed of conquerors who took over the Native nations and subjugated the wildlife, for profits and also for fun. There is fun, there is sport and then there is subjugation. If we are used to conquering and mutilating humans, we unleash strange death wishes upon the other. It is about the conquest of the other, 20 million buffalo exterminated, and the bounty hunting of rare, charismatic, dangerous animals of the world, an activity that begs the question, why?

Why kill for fun? Some have mentioned, it is an addiction. Like mainlining heroin. Others say that psychologically, it is an ego driven need to pretend that we are in control of nature, although with climate change that will soon change, and for all time. In the midst of the sixth extinction, many species are facing elimination, forever, all thanks to us. To find the targets of our misspent hunting cravings will be harder than ever. James William Gibson, professor of sociology at California State University, has tackled some of the underpinnings of our societal malaise and paramilitary culture in which men attempt to restore a sense of power and masculinity. Inhis bookWarrior Dreams- Paramilitary Culture in Post Vietnam America,1994, he surgically and precisely underscores the structure of a Rambo Culture in America. Warriors fighting and one may say even hunting outside the established order.

The killing of an animal for fun or leisure or so-called sport or for any reason but survival is murder as many have suggested but few are willing to admit. Max Weber, one of the supreme figureheads of sociology of the 20th century, emphasized how modern mans disenchantment with nature and refusal to accept nature as alive, led to the dismantling of Creation. To be made into a commodity. Nature has to be dominated and subdued. But Nature is alive. Each animal is assuredly alive and an irreplaceable gift, the greatest this Earth harbors. To sacrifice one in the name of fun is fundamentally evil, but it demonstrates the warrior class to an extreme.

Photo credit: Lysander Christo

In America the continued baiting and snaring of black bears in Montana and Idaho, which can impact grizzlies, continues to this day. Wolves decimated over the last few hundred years, continue to be shot in the West and the last administration even made it easier for wolves and bears to be lured by doughnuts and then shot, although almost 70 percent of Alaskans oppose the killing of bears in their dens, and the killings of wolf pups by hunters which by any standard should be considered a monstrosity. Future generations, when predators are almost gone, will ask, what on Earth were we thinking or feeling for beings trying desperately to hold on for dear life.

What we need as a species is to recreate the self, the character and soul of what it means to be human. The hunting rational for conservation does not serve the others and it does not support short term or long range conservation efforts. We no longer need to kill to survive except under extreme or unique situations as Indigenous people have done for millennia. Reserves in Africa, the motherland of the hunting experience, have been denuded of its game across entire wilderness areas, most notably in the Selous of Tanzania, where 60 percent of the countrys elephants roamed until a few years ago. Where trophy hunters have been allowed, on most occasions, poachers have pursued their prey. Picture a 12-year-old girl with the carcass of a dead zebra or giraffe. Where did she learn this behavior? The wild giraffe population has dropped by 40 percent in the last generation. If one wants science and numbers, there it is.

From over 140,000 giraffes to 80,000 in less than a generation. The great sentinel of the plains are in free fall. Giraffes are among some of the first beings children marvel at when their parents buy them toys or teach them to speak. In the future, childrens first words after dada and mama, after the wild has become a memory, might very well be com-pu-ta.

The animals that introduced children to life will roam only as effigies in the imagination. It will not just be a sad world. It will be an irremediably, irreducibly, tragic world bleeding from every eco-system on Earth.

Lets not forget that the mindset is not just America. It is British and French and Italian and German and now more than ever Chinese who are lusting after species, literally, on their last legs. Too many species are being lost, including half of all mammal species whose numbers are declining and a fifth of all mammal species are at risk of disappearing from earth. Forever.

Will it be worth having children where nothing breathes except the human face? Many childrensimply do not know if they will have a future due to climate change and the 6th extinction. The Extinction Rebellion that started in the UK just a few years ago is a direct response to humanitys subjugation of the natural world for millennia. It is no coincidence that the movement started in the former British Empire.The great hunter ethos exemplified in Teddy Roosevelt, was assimilated into American culturefollowing the British model. Hunting a single unique, often keystone predator species for the purposes of hunting does not improve an areas biodiversity, which is plummeting all over the planet. Animals were not the ones thrown out of paradise. Only Adam and Eve were.

There is an entity called the Congressional Sportsmen Foundation that enables you to hunt eland for a few thousand dollars in Africa or black bear here in the United States. Recreation is one thing but the deliberate obliteration of a being for entertainment is not something we as a species can afford any longer.Everywhere ecosystems are in jeopardy and predator species are plummeting. Many of the most charismatic, most sought after species for the most elite hunters are endangered worldwide. The black bear population is not an issue for now, but their great cousins up north in the melting Arctic most definitely are.

The price tag on a polar bear, which used to nourish Indigenous communities and which are now hunted solely for their fur or body is obscene and a sacrilege. The polar bear will disappear from an overheating Earth within several generations. The foundation of their being is melting and no self-respecting Inuit would have hunted for fun in the old days if you listened to the Inuit elders or Rasmussen, back a hundred years ago. It would have been abhorrent. In equal measure, no self-respecting Maasai warrior would ever, ever have killed a lion for fun. The greatest warriors on Earth have now become lion guardians.

For a senator or outdoorsman from the U.S. or a businessman from China to pay $100,000 to simply put a bullet through the brain of the largest predator on Earth demonstrates how far we have lost ballast and why the world is convulsing. In January 2014, The Guardianran an articleRapid Loss of Predators a major environmental threat. On land and in the sea. Sharks, one of the key components of the immune system of the oceans are in free fall. Many thousands have been caught in shark fishing tournaments for fun off Montauk and many others coastal cities. Many have had to reform. Tournaments saw the light, but many shark populations have been reduced by 70 percent as well. Some scientists fear sharks might not even survive. They go back almost 500 million years ago. How dare us.

Between major global climate upheaval we are all experiencing and the very fragile state of democracy worldwide with people clamoring for food, water and resources, species are being decimated. They literally have nowhere to run. The aerial shooting of wolves, the baiting and killing of grizzlies or black bears or mountain lion in North America is insanity and hubris writ large. Maybe humans, so divorced from the survival days of yore are bored out of their minds. Its possible.

Photo credit: Lysander Christo

There are many arguments for why trophy hunters kill.Hunters can absorb the high costs of hunting, which enhances their status as men, mostly men, although some of those hunters stop as they get older and feel more vulnerable to lifes last days and start to feel compassion for other living beings.

We have been social predators for eons only out of sheer necessity. A long time ago, our species was an innocent killer, as Jane Goodall and Hugo van Lawick can testify in their first book on jackals, spotted hyena andwild dogs calledInnocent Killers, 1970. All that changed with civilization and the domestication of animals. We know the story. Our destructive potential imposed on nature especially in the last 200 years with the industrial revolution, has developed in tandem with the ability to inflict pain on ourselves on a mass scale. Innumerable species decimated and vanquished at the hand of man. It is part and parcel of a larger mindset of conquest and subjugation. What we do to ourselves we have inflicted on the others. So, to ask why trophy hunters crave to kill begs the question, where does this strange, aberrant behavior come from.

It stems from psychology but philosophers such as Arthur Schopenhauer had partial explanations for the need to kill. It is a stain on our karmic DNA. In the old days we needed to hunt for food, and except for the last remaining tribal groups on Earth, humanity no longer needs to do so to survive.Trophy hunting is of an entirely different breed than hunting out of sheer necessity. Schopenhauer exclaims, The assumption that animals are without rights, and the illusion that our treatment of them has no moral significance, is a positively outrageous example of Western crudity and barbarity. Universal compassion is the only guarantee of morality.

Strangely, as our civilization approaches its peak years and possibly senility it may behoove us all to ask why some of us insist on killing for fun. The entire foundation of our morality is breaking down. The gap between rich and poor, between peoples of different colored skins, between men and women and between human and non-human is increasing. The inequality is numbing to the point of mini revolutions across the globe. The need to subjugate has been engraved into civilizations fingerprint for millennia now. Today it has taken on unique proportions because it is an industry bringing in tens of millions of dollars, money which mostly stays in the industry. The Native people of Africa, already moved out of prime hunting grounds, are not allowed to hunt. But foreigners, of course, are.

Why we may never understand the reasons people hunt animals astrophies,Xanthe Mallett, a criminologist,reports, research shows increased levels of hostilityand a need for power and control are associated with poor attitudes towards animals, among men in particular. Mallett also writes, "another paperhas linkedpersonalitytraits of some people who hunt for sport to a different triadof behaviors, known ominously as the dark triad. This includesnarcissism(egotistical admiration of ones own attributes, and a lack of compassion),Machiavellianism(being deceitful, cunning and manipulative) andpsychopathy(lack of remorse orempathy, and prone to impulsive behavior).

In a study published in 2016 during the heyday of the elephant slaughter authored by Scott Creel, Jessie Msoka, Eli Rosenblatt, Twakundine Simpamba and others, the authors underscore that:

Trophy hunting has had negative effects on lion populations throughout Africa, and the species serves as an important case study to consider the balance of costs and benefits, and to consider the effectiveness of alternative strategies to conserve exploited species. Age-restricted harvesting is widely recommended to mitigate negative effects of lion hunting, but this recommendation was based on a population model parameterized with data from a well-protected and growing lion population.

The research by Brent Staplekamp who actually collared Cecil the lion before he was killed by a trophy hunting dentist from the U.S., suggests that lion hunting is not sustainable. His experience in Hwange, the largest park in Zimbabwe shouldsilence all skeptics once and for all.

Today the lion population is decreasing across Africa. Some say there are 30-25 thousand left, some say as few as 10,000. When will they be as rare as cheetah, who may number no more than 7,000, maybe 1,000 less. When I was first in Kenya as a teenager of 15, there may have been as many as 40,000 cheetah. The elephant herds of Africa have taken a direct hit losing 30 percent of the their numbers in the last 15 years. The black rhino hovered close to 70,000 individuals in 1970. Today maybe 5,000. To auction off a black rhino in Namibia for $350,000 as happened in 2015, flies in the face of reason. Was that animal really worth more dead than alive? The outrage against that particular killing was widespread and begs the question: Is this the best humanity can do to preserve its most fragile species?

Not that long ago, there were more than 40,000 tigers in India and maybe 80,000 in all of Asia. Between 1875 and 1925 the rich and aristocrats of Europe killed off the vast, vast majority of Asias most formidable predator. India now has maybe 1,600 tigers. Is there going to be a price tag to shoot a tiger five years from now for $1 million, $5 million, how about $50 million?

I, for one, would rather see the Sistine Chapel fall to pieces, the unique vision of one man, just one man, however talented he may have been, than to lose for all time a single species whether it be the mountain gorilla, elephant, lion, tiger, polar bear or any whale species on this planet. We are riding on the razors edge of insanity when the body parts of species on the near edge of extinction continue to motivate adult men, mostly men, for killing purposes.

With all the money at hand in the world, conservation and the business elite need to mobilize economic resources in tandem, because we now know that natures financial score card, what she yearly gives back in terms of ecosystem resources of the planet is more than double what humanity makes each and every year in terms of GDP. Economy and ecology have to come together.

Photo credit: Cyril Christo and Marie Wilkinson

I asked a priest at a temple in India what would happen to humanity if we lost the tiger. He said, it will not matter because there will not be humanity any more. In a park, almost serene beyond comprehension, the great 65 feet statue of Vishnu the protector, preserver and sustainer of the world lies in the forest where about 8 tigers per square kilometer roam the sanctuary. Buddhist monks used to meditate in caves where tigers patrolled the jungle. The grown men of the world steeply infused with the last remnants of Rambo style mentality, still suffering the stress and horrors of post Vietnam, post 1960s social dislocation, continue to execute the greatest exemplars of the life force on Earth.

If big game hunters were to enter even one of the caves at Bandhavgarh, sit very quietly for an hour in a way Buddhist monks used to 2,000 years ago, and maybe indulge in a moment of utter tranquility such as most of them have never done before, exit that cave,and stare profoundly into the eyes of a tiger at 20 feet, they would be utterly silenced and irreducibly haunted and transfigured by a vastly more coherent being. But I suspect there are a few hunters today who would follow in Yuri Yankosvkys footsteps when he left Russia after the Russian Revolution and became a tiger hunter living on tiger steaks and vodka. The tigers bred in China for tiger wine are shameful beyond measure. The deer bred in Texas by the thousands for the biggest horns is craven.

To track down an endangered argali sheep in Mongolia, the one inscribed on hunters life list of trophies is mindless. While no-one is allowed to kill a tiger in India the black market still exists. One day many species will become as rare as the Bengal, Sumatran tiger or Siberian tiger. But there are those who dream of hunting them. They continue to be poached. With changing monsoon patterns with heat indexes expected to rise across Asia, how will the tiger survive? How will humanity survive?

Unbelievably enough, an elephant can still be targeted for the asking price of $40K. How on Earth anyone would want to shoot one of the pillars of the world is beyond comprehension.But the estimated value of an elephant over its lifetime may be over 1.5 million dollars, many, many times what it is worth as a lifeless, mute, inert, devastated lump of obscenity hanging on someones wall, or as a tusk encased in glass. When will this come to an end? When will there be only 1,000 elephants left in the wild protected by electric fences and armed guards? By then there will be nothing left of the wild.

What exactly will it take to come to our senses? You know, when a child looks at a live being and then is told that adults, or their parents enjoy, actually enjoy the slaughter of that being, that child is severed from the world forever asElephant Song, the remarkably insightful film from Canada makes abundantly clear. We have reached the tail end of morality on this Earth as a species. A few more millimeters and we will have reached the point of no return. The Convention on Biological Diversity seeks to stave off the bleeding of nature while nature still exists in some measure. But we are running out of time. The Arctic and Antarctic melting are starting to make short work of our vanity. We need to wake up.

There may come a time, when teachers will have to explain to their students what Nature was. That Nature came to an end abruptly in the 21st century out of greed and utter arrogance. The end, not just of the proverbial elephants tail, but the lifeline to existence, which are its species. We have the next four years and maybe this decade, and then it will be over. I promise. Unless we make an about face.

The clinical dimension of loss where 70 percent of the worlds animal populations have been eliminated in the last two generations is incalculable, ecologically, and in terms of the human psyche, psychologically and spiritually. It is why more people are addicted to drugs than ever. Why more people are taking their lives than ever. Why more people are deciding not to have children than ever. Because not only are they being left behind, the species that gave them a reason to marvel and wonder, are diminishing.We have precisely this decade to turn things around before the possibility of living viably on this Earth disappears.

Recently, Sir Ranulph Fiennes, the explorer, was able to convince the WWF to change its endorsement of trophy hunting. Which speaks volumes about this inimitable explorer and about one of the very largest conservation groups on the planet. Change is possible. Fiennes wrote about Boris Johnson, as the leader of the country that incited trophy hunting more than any other in modern times when he said that he hoped that the prime minister would understand that hunting was about cruelty. "Bullying bastards are involved and people who are vain sticking lovely dead animals on their walls. This preeminent British adventurer was the oldest to climb Mt. Everest and has crossed both polar ice caps summoned by a spirit virtually unmatched in modern times. So whenKilling Game: The Extinction Industry2020 by Eduardo Goncalvescame out, he had to call out the WWF for its diabolic practice of supporting trophy hunting and called out the practice for what it was, the perfidy of killing for its own sake.

Released five years after the killing of Cecil the lion, the book made an impact and especially on the WWF. They were shamed as should every killer, every hunter who wantonly destroys life for fun, not for venison, not for food, but for plain old entertainment. In this extraordinary time of extreme vulnerability, life can no longer be taken for granted. To hold onto antiquated models of human behavior does humanity and Earth a grave injustice. As Eduardo exclaims, All forms of animal cruelty, persecution, and murder are unjustifiable. But this is perhaps the most senseless and vile form of animal exploitation of all. It is people killing animals literally just to amuse themselves.Nine out of ten people want trophy hunting banned and the vast majority want to see all forms of trophies banned not just endangered species who could well disappear in the next few years, let alone the next generation. If the WWF can change its stand on one of humanitys most heinous practices, so too can the executioners of the wild, called trophy hunters.

But the greatest argument of all comes of course from science. Incontrovertibly so. The maximum sustainable yield concept that hunters might use, lets say in taking out a few dozen, or even a hundred deer out of population of lets say a thousand over a year leaves the remaining population with more unfit individuals. Those with the biggest horns, the largest tusks, if taken out, leave the less fit in the overall population. The conspecific competition between the strongest males in a species is reduced by targeting the ones with the largest horns, which erodes and undermines natural selection. Trophy hunting is artificial selection.Trophy hunting impairs genetic selection for the hardiest individuals. Trophy hunting stops evolution or rather causes reverse evolution.

We can no longer afford to turn a deaf ear to the future. For if we do not act now, the future will be silent except for the guile laden, war ravaging, profit mongering voice of a young species, called Homo sapiens, that took the life force for granted and conducted itself in a manner that led to the 6th extinction now upon us. For far too long men thought they were superior to women. For far too long whites thought they were superior to people of color. For far too long humans have thought they were superior to animals. For far too long humans thought of themselves as the crowning achievement of life on Earth. If life persists with even the semblance of the species Earth once had by centurys end, it will be a miracle. If we dont, the hunters of the world will have plenty to answer for because their ethos, their conduct is part of the warrior behavior that puts a bullet in an elephants brain because it can. We are very close to the point where nature simply has no use for us anymore. We are unraveling the life force.

Sometimes with the barrel of a gun.

Anyone who has doubts about the psychosis involved with the deer breeding farms in Texas should go down to that state and look around. To shoot deer with the biggest horns, Hornography, as Gibson calls it. Africas situation with the near shut down of tourism should not be an excuse for ramping up the hunting industrys quota for the greatest mammals on Earth. The death industry imposed on the innocent is very much part and parcel of our militarized civilization. And we will have to invent incredible excuses for the incredulous children who will have lost wonder and childhood forever. We are very close to the razors edge. We need to be very careful this decade. We are about to lose the meaning of life. Which is life itself.

As Werner Herzog, the visionary filmmaker once exclaimed after makingCave of Forgotten Dreams

I do not want to live on a planet where there are no lions anymore.

Our species used to kill to survive, because we did not have a choice. Today we have to choose life before it withers before the great cosmos of what this Earth once encompassed. The animals of the world, the backbone of existence, have been treated like expendable resources and garbage for far too long. The cavemen of 50,000 ago had far more respect for life. Animal populations are collapsing and our civilization will too. Native people always took the weakest individuals, as I was just told by a Gwichin elder in Alaska. They respected the leader, the strongest of the bunch. Our civilization simply does not. Unlessunless we change the heart of our humanity. In this extraordinarily fragile pandemic time, we should all know what that means.

Perhaps when all is gone and there is quite nothing to expect to find in the forests of the world we can look back with utter shame at what was and remember the great short story,The Most Dangerous Game,by Richard Connell in 1924 wherein the protagonist, a man, is hunted because he has cunning, courage and reason which supposedly the other animals do not. From the story:

"It will be light enough in Rio," promised Whitney. "We should make it in a few days. I hope the jaguar guns have come from Purdey's. We should have some good hunting up the Amazon. Great sport, hunting."

"The best sport in the world," agreed Rainsford.

"For the hunter," amended Whitney. "Not for the jaguar."

"Don't talk rot, Whitney," said Rainsford. "You're a big-game hunter, not a philosopher. Who cares how a jaguar feels?

"Perhaps the jaguar does," observed Whitney.

"Bah! They've no understanding."

"Even so, I rather think they understand one thing--fear. The fear of pain and the fear of death."

"Nonsense," laughed Rainsford. "This hot weather is making you soft, Whitney. Be a realist. The world is made up of two classes--the hunters and the huntees. Luckily, you and I are hunters.

As Elizabeth Marshall Thomas, who has spent years with the Bushmen back in the 1950s and knew the old Africa like very few on Earth magisterially explains, Yes, poaching and trophy hunting are different, but only from the human point of view. The two disgusting practices are identical from the wildlife point of view, especially for endangered species which seem to attract unusually large numbers of trophy hunters.

We have to change as a species before its too late.

Learn more aboutCyril Christo and Marie Wilkinson's work at their website.

WT Trailer cut 4 from Lightningwood on Vimeo.

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Why trophy hunting is on the wrong side of history and evolution | TheHill - The Hill

Hundreds of fish species, including many that humans eat, are consuming plastic – The Conversation US

Trillions of barely visible pieces of plastic are floating in the worlds oceans, from surface waters to the deep seas. These particles, known as microplastics, typically form when larger plastic objects such as shopping bags and food containers break down.

Researchers are concerned about microplastics because they are minuscule, widely distributed and easy for wildlife to consume, accidentally or intentionally. We study marine science and animal behavior, and wanted to understand the scale of this problem. In a newly published study that we conducted with ecologist Elliott Hazen, we examined how marine fish including species consumed by humans are ingesting synthetic particles of all sizes.

In the broadest review on this topic that has been carried out to date, we found that, so far, 386 marine fish species are known to have ingested plastic debris, including 210 species that are commercially important. But findings of fish consuming plastic are on the rise. We speculate that this could be happening both because detection methods for microplastics are improving and because ocean plastic pollution continues to increase.

Its not news that wild creatures ingest plastic. The first scientific observation of this problem came from the stomach of a seabird in 1969. Three years later, scientists reported that fish off the coast of southern New England were consuming tiny plastic particles.

Since then, well over 100 scientific papers have described plastic ingestion in numerous species of fish. But each study has only contributed a small piece of a very important puzzle. To see the problem more clearly, we had to put those pieces together.

This story is part of Oceans 21Our series on the global ocean opened with five in depth profiles. Look out for new articles on the state of our oceans in the lead up to the UNs next climate conference, COP26. The series is brought to you by The Conversations international network.

We did this by creating the largest existing database on plastic ingestion by marine fish, drawing on every scientific study of the problem published from 1972 to 2019. We collected a range of information from each study, including what fish species it examined, the number of fish that had eaten plastic and when those fish were caught. Because some regions of the ocean have more plastic pollution than others, we also examined where the fish were found.

For each species in our database, we identified its diet, habitat and feeding behaviors for example, whether it preyed on other fish or grazed on algae. By analyzing this data as a whole, we wanted to understand not only how many fish were eating plastic, but also what factors might cause them to do so. The trends that we found were surprising and concerning.

Our research revealed that marine fish are ingesting plastic around the globe. According to the 129 scientific papers in our database, researchers have studied this problem in 555 fish species worldwide. We were alarmed to find that more than two-thirds of those species had ingested plastic.

One important caveat is that not all of these studies looked for microplastics. This is likely because finding microplastics requires specialized equipment, like microscopes, or use of more complex techniques. But when researchers did look for microplastics, they found five times more plastic per individual fish than when they only looked for larger pieces. Studies that were able to detect this previously invisible threat revealed that plastic ingestion was higher than we had originally anticipated.

Our review of four decades of research indicates that fish consumption of plastic is increasing. Just since an international assessment conducted for the United Nations in 2016, the number of marine fish species found with plastic has quadrupled.

Similarly, in the last decade alone, the proportion of fish consuming plastic has doubled across all species. Studies published from 2010-2013 found that an average of 15% of the fish sampled contained plastic; in studies published from 2017-2019, that share rose to 33%.

We think there are two reasons for this trend. First, scientific techniques for detecting microplastics have improved substantially in the past five years. Many of the earlier studies we examined may not have found microplastics because researchers couldnt see them.

Second, it is also likely that fish are actually consuming more plastic over time as ocean plastic pollution increases globally. If this is true, we expect the situation to worsen. Multiple studies that have sought to quantify plastic waste project that the amount of plastic pollution in the ocean will continue to increase over the next several decades.

While our findings may make it seem as though fish in the ocean are stuffed to the gills with plastic, the situation is more complex. In our review, almost one-third of the species studied were not found to have consumed plastic. And even in studies that did report plastic ingestion, researchers did not find plastic in every individual fish. Across studies and species, about one in four fish contained plastics a fraction that seems to be growing with time. Fish that did consume plastic typically had only one or two pieces in their stomachs.

In our view, this indicates that plastic ingestion by fish may be widespread, but it does not seem to be universal. Nor does it appear random. On the contrary, we were able to predict which species were more likely to eat plastic based on their environment, habitat and feeding behavior.

For example, fishes such as sharks, grouper and tuna that hunt other fishes or marine organisms as food were more likely to ingest plastic. Consequently, species higher on the food chain were at greater risk.

We were not surprised that the amount of plastic that fish consumed also seemed to depend on how much plastic was in their environment. Species that live in ocean regions known to have a lot of plastic pollution, such as the Mediterranean Sea and the coasts of East Asia, were found with more plastic in their stomachs.

This is not just a wildlife conservation issue. Researchers dont know very much about the effects of ingesting plastic on fish or humans. However, there is evidence that that microplastics and even smaller particles called nanoplastics can move from a fishs stomach to its muscle tissue, which is the part that humans typically eat. Our findings highlight the need for studies analyzing how frequently plastics transfer from fish to humans, and their potential effects on the human body.

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Our review is a step toward understanding the global problem of ocean plastic pollution. Of more than 20,000 marine fish species, only roughly 2% have been tested for plastic consumption. And many reaches of the ocean remain to be examined. Nonetheless, whats now clear to us is that out of sight, out of mind is not an effective response to ocean pollution especially when it may end up on our plates.

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Hundreds of fish species, including many that humans eat, are consuming plastic - The Conversation US

Written Submission to the UN Human Rights Council Intersessional Meeting on the Prevention of Genocide – World – ReliefWeb

This submission was prepared by the Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect an independent organization that focuses on conducting research, analysis and advocacy in relation to mass atrocity crimes. The Global Centre is the leading international authority on the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) and since its inception in 2008 it has expanded and deepened global support for the norm. The Global Centre plays a unique role at the United Nations (UN) as the only organization carrying out monitoring, research and advocacy on all current and potential mass atrocity situations around the globe, as well as working with governments, the UN Human Rights Council and Security Council to translate this research into actionable policy responses.

STRENGTHENING NATIONAL CAPACITIES FOR THE PREVENTION OF GENOCIDE

Modern history demonstrates that genocide, ethnic cleansing, war crimes and/or crimes against humanity can occur almost everywhere. Genocide and other mass atrocity crimes are often the result of long-standing discriminatory practices, the targeting of vulnerable groups, patterns of violations and abuses of human rights and a lack of strong domestic institutions.

Genocide as a crime is distinct from the commission of other atrocity crimes as it includes the intent to destroy, in part or whole, an entire group. As history has taught us, genocide does not happen overnight, but requires planning and organization on the part of the perpetrator. As such, genocide is preventable if warning signs are taken seriously and followed by early action.

On a national level, risk factors for genocide and other mass atrocity crimes must be addressed through holistic policies and processes aimed at countering discrimination and marginalization. This includes strengthening legislative and institutional frameworks to guarantee principles of non-discrimination, ensuring the presence of various communities in political and public offices, and investigating all cases of discriminatory behavior or dangerous public discourse, even when practiced by popular politicians and leaders.

Governments should undertake the following measures to strengthen national capacities for the prevention of genocide and other atrocity crimes:

1. Create a national strategy or plan for genocide and atrocity prevention

Genocide and atrocity prevention are domestic policy imperatives. It is a cross-cutting issue that is relevant to the work of various departments and ministries, including national security, justice, human rights, minority affairs, women and child welfare, education, culture, health and beyond. A holistic, government-wide atrocity prevention strategy can aid in assessing national vulnerabilities to atrocities, strengthening societal resilience and building structural mechanisms to prevent or respond to atrocity risks. A national strategy on atrocity prevention can also equip political actors with the necessary contextual knowledge on risks factors for genocide and other atrocity crimes to comprehensively assess policy options and timely and consistent responses aimed at protecting populations and holding perpetrators accountable. Such a strategy should be rooted in the principle of R2P.

2. Enact legislation that facilitates structural atrocity prevention

The Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide (Genocide Convention) obliges states to take measures to prevent and punish the crime of genocide. Governments should expeditiously sign and ratify the Genocide Convention and enact domestic legislation criminalizing genocide in accordance with the Convention. States should also adopt domestic legal protection for vulnerable groups and communities to help strengthen their capacity to prevent or halt genocide and other atrocities. National legal frameworks should include the protection of minority rights and legislation against hate speech and incitement.

Minority rights protection. Minority groups are often the most marginalized and vulnerable groups within society and are most likely to be exposed to structural discrimination, racism and exclusion from participation in economic, political and social life. In addition to adopting domestic legislation that aims to protect minority rights, states should ratify international treaties that protect and enhance human rights to prevent discrimination, exclusion and hostility against members of minority groups.

Legislation against hate speech and incitement. One of the most important early warning signs of genocide is the proliferation of hate speech and incitement. Hate speech is rhetoric that marginalizes and targets people on the basis of their religion, ethnicity, gender, sexual orientation or race. In other words, it is language that demonizes people not for anything that they have done, but for who they are. Such dangerous speech erodes social cohesion and lays the foundation for violence against vulnerable groups. Discriminatory public discourse against communities based on their identity normalizes violence against individuals or groups who are perceived as threats, which may incite its audience to engage in greater violence and acts of genocide. Governments should enact domestic legislation aimed at preventing hate speech and incitement, while guaranteeing the right to freedom of speech. Furthermore, states should utilize the recommendations outlined in the UN Plan of Action and Strategy on Hate Speech to identify gaps and challenges on a national level.

3. Appoint an R2P Focal Point

Governments can strengthen capacities for genocide and atrocity prevention by appointing a senior-level government official responsible for the promotion of mass atrocity prevention at national and international level. Currently, 61 countries from all regions of the world as well as the European Union (EU) and the Organization of American States (OAS) have an R2P Focal Point and are part of the Global Network of R2P Focal Points, which meets annually to exchange best practices and strategies for strengthening atrocity prevention, including on a national level. Members of the Global Network include states that have never experienced mass atrocities domestically as well as states with populations currently experiencing, or at imminent risk of, mass atrocity crimes. The placement of an R2P Focal Point within a particular ministry or office is decided by each individual government, taking into account its structure and priorities, including whether the R2P Focal Points responsibilities are focused on national or international atrocity prevention. More information can be found here.

4. Systematically engage with civil society organizations

Although the prevention of genocide and other atrocity crimes is the primary responsibility of the state, civil society organizations can be instrumental in identifying early warning indicators of genocide, providing recommendations for necessary action at a national and local level, and alerting the international community if governments are unable or unwilling to act. Therefore, governments should regularly call on the expertise of civil society, including through regular consultations with national and local human rights defenders and NGOs. Through the Universal Periodic Review (UPR) process, governments should consult national civil society to identify existing risk factors for mass atrocity crimes and ensure that recommendations towards addressing risk factors are implemented across the domestic system.

5. Strengthen atrocity prevention with education

Educating government officials and the wider population is a crucial tool for domestic atrocity prevention. Organizing trainings for public servants and politicians on R2P and mass atrocity prevention raises awareness within institutions and improves their ability to analyze potential risk factors for atrocities, develop comprehensive policies, and identify and strengthen existing local resources to address risk factors. To build resilient societies, states must develop curricula that promote diversity and inclusion, foster social solidarity, prevent prejudice and acknowledge past atrocities. Governments can also strengthen genocide and atrocity prevention by translating the UN Framework of Analysis for Atrocity Crimes into local languages and organize public events to promote it domestically.

PROMOTING PARTICIPATION IN REGIONAL INITIATIVES FOR GENOCIDE AND ATROCITY PREVENTION

Regional organizations play a unique role in preventing and responding to genocide and other mass atrocities, as well as in taking effective collective action to protect civilians. These organizations are often best placed to guide multilateral action on situations emerging in their region. Such organizations may have a better understanding of political dynamics and are composed of neighboring states who may be disproportionately affected in the aftermath of atrocities.

6. Regional organizations should appoint an R2P Focal Point to work collaboratively on atrocity prevention with their member states

The appointment of R2P Focal Points by the EU and OAS were significant achievements that may enable more efficient and collaborative work on atrocity prevention among states in these regions. By appointing a senior diplomat as an R2P Focal Point, regional organizations can further strengthen multilateral action on emerging atrocity situations through its mechanisms and procedures. A regional R2P Focal Point can be crucial to enabling the integration of genocide and mass atrocity prevention within different sectors of the organization, helping to facilitate information sharing and creating linkages between different member states to regularly exchange on best practices and lessons learned. States that have appointed an R2P Focal Point should be encouraged to apply collective pressure on relevant regional bodies to encourage the appointment of a regional R2P Focal Point. Such an appointment would signal that the regional organizations can and will play a key role in responding to emerging crises by systematically applying an atrocity prevention lens to their mandate.

7. Utilize regional mechanisms to share best practices and develop preventive tools

While genocide and atrocity prevention, or a direct reference to R2P, may not be in the founding documents of all regional organizations, many of them operate within the spirit of mass atrocity prevention. For example, institutional mechanisms for providing technical assistance to member states and various regional field operations support the implementation of Pillar II of R2P. Collaboration among member states should be strengthened to regularly share best practices and develop relevant preventive tools. Preventing genocide and other mass atrocities by upholding R2P may also aid in defending the organizations interests in ensuring the stability and security of the region. One example is the EUs Integrated Approach to conflicts and crises, which ensures that all EU foreign policy instruments identify early warning signs and apply appropriate tools to confront emerging risks. Organizations should aim to further develop partnerships with different regional organizations to aid in the development of mutually supportive strategies for the prevention of atrocities, such as the African Union-EU-UN trilateral partnership.

STRENGTHENING EARLY WARNING, EARLY RESPONSE AND PREVENTION MECHANISMS WITHIN THE UNITED NATIONS SYSTEM FOR THE PREVENTION OF GENOCIDE

Systematic violations and abuses of human rights often serve as early warning for situations at risk of escalation to atrocities. Human rights mechanisms and procedures, including Special Procedures, the UPR and investigative mechanisms, are uniquely suited to address these risk factors at an early stage. They are therefore essential for early warning of situations at risk of genocide and other atrocity crimes and can be vital to mobilize early response within the UN system.

8. Systematically utilize UN Special Procedures and the Universal Periodic Review to identify warning signs and risk factors

The HRCs special procedures mandate holders constitute key mechanisms for early warning and the identification of atrocity risks. Several of the 44 active thematic special procedures are directly relevant for identifying atrocity risks stemming from ongoing human rights violations, including, but not limited to, the Special Rapporteur on extrajudicial, summary or arbitrary executions, the Special Rapporteur on the promotion of truth, justice, reparation and guarantees of non-recurrence, and the Special Rapporteur on minority issues. Six of the current country-specific special procedures are mandated for situations where populations are experiencing, or are at risk of, atrocity crimes, including Eritrea, Myanmar and the Central African Republic. The regular updates and recommendations by these Special Procedures can be vital to identifying genocide and atrocity risk factors and providing guidance on preventing non-recurrence. UN member states should systematically utilize this information to identify situations at risk and develop prevention strategies. The UPR also provides a unique opportunity for mainstreaming and institutionalizing prevention of genocide and mass atrocity crimes by encouraging states to assess atrocity risks and identify means to build resilience, including through concrete and context-specific prevention and mitigation strategies. The UPR further allows for the mobilization of international support through technical assistance and capacity building. UN member states participating in the UPR process should provide targeted atrocity prevention-related recommendations to other governments and, where applicable, provide assistance for domestic implementation.

9. Establish independent investigative mechanisms to ensure accountability and non-recurrence

Although investigative mechanisms are normally established in the aftermath of grave violations and abuses of human rights, they are not only vital to contribute to justice and accountability, but also contribute to non-recurrence by outlining risk factors that facilitated the commission of atrocity crimes. Investigative mechanisms, including Commissions of Inquiry, Fact-Finding Missions and Groups of Eminent Experts, have proven to be instrumental in providing analysis as to whether international crimes have occurred, supplying actionable recommendations for all relevant actors, and advancing accountability efforts. Some mechanisms have also been successful in the identification of the root causes of human rights violations and abuses. By directly applying an atrocity prevention lens, investigative mechanisms can broaden our understanding of patterns of behavior that enable the commission of genocide and other atrocities and outline necessary institutional reforms to prevent their recurrence.

10. Mandate HRC-mechanisms and procedures to apply the UN Framework of Analysis for Atrocity Crimes

The UNs Framework of Analysis is one tool available to expand comprehension of the early warning indicators of mass atrocities and can help enhance risk assessments, including through the work of Geneva-based mechanisms and procedures. When UN member states establish and renew HRC investigative mechanisms and Special Procedures, they should systematically include the Framework of Analysis in the mandates, asking the relevant experts to conduct a risk assessment of genocide and other atrocity crimes as part of their monitoring, reporting and investigations. The CoI on Burundi and the FFM on Myanmar used such an assessment, which helped alert the international community on existing structural and hybrid risk factors, warning of recurrence of atrocity crimes if they remain unaddressed. This can be vital to mobilize a response that specifically aims to prevent genocide and atrocity crimes. Where relevant, all HRC investigative mechanisms should also actively collaborate with the UN Office on Genocide Prevention and the Responsibility to Protect.

11. Support Special Sessions and Urgent Debates of the HRC to respond to deteriorating human rights crises

For country situations where violations and abuses of human rights rapidly deteriorate, the HRC may hold Special Sessions or Urgent Debates to address the escalating crisis and discuss options on how to respond. Yet, far too often, political dynamics in Geneva and beyond impede the holding of such meetings when the risk of atrocities is high. UN member states should respond in a more timely and decisive manner by holding a Special Session or Urgent Debate to increase international scrutiny on a situation at risk, receive relevant briefings by the High Commissioner for Human Rights and other stakeholders and formally discuss necessary action to prevent further deterioration.

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Written Submission to the UN Human Rights Council Intersessional Meeting on the Prevention of Genocide - World - ReliefWeb

Hope in its rawest form: why pandemic literature provides comfort in times of crisis – Observer Online

When COVID-19 began, I was in the final semester of my senior year of high school. After my exams were canceled, I found myself, like many others, with more time on my hands. I turned to literature and the arts, as they gave me a refuge from the outside world. However, I noticed something interesting about the kinds of media being consumed.

For one, the sources of entertainment that seemed to be gaining popularity were those that contained infectious diseases themselves. Outbreak became one of the most streamed films on Netflix at the end of March 2020, andpublishers reported booming sales in novels that featured epidemics. In Italy, Camus The Plague tripled in sales, and Penguin had to rush a reprint in different translations in order to meet the rising demand across the globe.

At first, I didnt quite understand this peculiar phenomenon. For me, literature is a form of escapism, in which I can explore other cultures, backgrounds and lives that are distinct from my own. I am a traveler without a passport, unrestrained by limitations, but rather, boundless in the worlds I may enter.

To read literature that features pandemics themselves seemed counter-productive. We already are surrounded by doomsday themes in our everyday lives. Why would I want to add to the chaos, to the turmoil that is already ensuing? The influx of readership in dystopian and pandemic literature led me to question why we, as humans, gravitate towards books that depict such harrowing experiences, especially when these stories begin to resemble our own.

To answer this question, I began to read literature that featured plagues, including Boccaccios The Decameron.Although the work takes place in medieval Italy, I began to realize that despite the time gap between the setting and the current 21st century, the tendencies of the human behavior are eerily analogous to those of today.

In The Decameron, some of rich enjoy the arts in the comfort of their homes, experimenting with music and other forms of fine arts. The wealthiest of the lot flee to their countryside estates, leaving the middle and lower class to stay in the urban city and work, many of which succumb to the plague.

These class disparities existed long before the presence of the Black Death, but these inequities become amplified as resources become scarcer and more unattainable for many groups of people. Sound familiar?

Pandemics demonstrate the vulnerabilities in human nature, our fears of not being able to provide for our families, achieve our goals, or even survive. Humanity can become amplified by the heroic efforts of frontline essential workers and altruistic neighbors who shop for their immunocompromised friends. At the same time, goodwill can seem bleak, with fights breaking out in stores when inventory runs low.

Although news outlets throw the word unprecedented in every other sentence, I am reminded through reading such literature that we are not alone these same issues have occurred throughout history, both in real life and in the world of fiction. In a strange way, I am comforted by these characters, in that they face similar fears and worries as my own.

Literature and the arts as a form of comfort during times of uncertainty is not an unfamiliar concept. Station Eleven by Emily St. John Mandel features a flu pandemic which devastates the world. In the aftermath of the disease, the main character joins a group that performs Shakespeare plays across the remaining settlements. Instead of surrendering to despair and futility in the obstruction of society as they knew it, groups of survivors form solidarity in performing plays for those who still live.

While the fine arts are not seen as something being essential to physical existence, after experiencing a year full of quarantine and isolation, it is becoming increasingly prevalent that implementing creativity and intellectual curiosity is necessary for ones mental health and well-being.

Art is an expression of what it means to be human. Consuming or producing art, whether it be literary, visual or any other kind, can help people process difficult events and form conclusions about both the world and themselves. It has the ability to heal and provide hope, a form of rehabilitation during a year replete with much trauma and suffering.

While dystopian and pandemic novels do evoke dark themes such as anguish, I believe that this kind of literature also has the ability to portray hope in its rawest form. Hope is not produced in contentment but, rather, when desolation is near. It is during these times of trouble that we hope for a world that is full of literature, books and the arts. In an age where many are silenced, confused and scared, when we find ourselves rooting for the protagonist who is attempting to overcome obstacles, we are truly rooting for ourselves.

Elizabeth Prater is a first-year student with double majors in marketing and Program of Liberal Studies. In her free time, she manages her goldendoodles Instagram account (@genevieve_the_cute_dog) which has over 23K followers. She can be reached at [emailprotected] or @elizabethlianap on Twitter.

The views expressed in this column are those of the author and not necessarily those of The Observer.

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Hope in its rawest form: why pandemic literature provides comfort in times of crisis - Observer Online