Human Behavior

Does Game Theory Work in Blackjack Games? – Casino Game Theory – BestUSCasinos.org

Youve probably at least run across the term game theory at some point. Its shown up in a lot of different places, from articles of optimal hands in Texas Holdem to the 2018 movie Crazy Rich Asians.

You may have wondered what game theory is and if its really as powerful as you would be led to believe. Could it have lead Constance Wus character to essentially dominate everyone she played poker or mahjong against? Simply put, game theory is very powerful, maybe not as powerful as it has been shown in the movies, but still pretty cool.

Normally, game theory is shown in head-to-head card games, but I started wondering Could it apply to other games like playing blackjack? The results were somewhat mixed, but ultimately, game theory can help with blackjack if used properly.

Lets look at how blackjack can help, understand the obstacles blackjack presents when using game theory and, of course, learn what exactly game theory is.

These decisions including whether you fold or raise in Texas Holdem or, potentially, whether you hit or stay in blackjack.

Game theory applies to more than just poker. It finds its way into nearly every human endeavor from stock trading to police work to poker and, over time, it can produce mathematical models that are really good at predicting human behavior.

However, all of the places that get game theory applied to them have a few things in common. First, they all have at least two players in competition. The rules of the game are mostly clear and players gain a better result for some actions than others.

Even though Hollywood would have you believe otherwise, game theory isnt an all-powerful tool for making perfect decisions. In fact, it requires two things to make it work.

First, you need a lot of data. No one just has a eureka moment and invents a mathematical model describing the perfect way to play US poker games or rule the stock market.

Instead, researchers working on the problem build a model and test it. They learn from their tests, then they refine the model, rebuild it, and test again. After a bunch of iterations, they will then produce either a massive failure or model that might work after it has been vetted in the real world.

Wait, dont go anywhere. This only sounds like math class. Its really poker.

The other thing that game theory needs is a small number of variables (in other words, not a lot going on). In fact, the University of Alberta folks who pioneered a lot of this research are pretty quick to point out their models work best when its one-on-one because thats when the fewest number of things might change.

To bring this point home, people are messy, and if you get a lot of them in one game, they can make game theorys head spin and leave you looking for other ways to dominate the table.

Now that youre ready to don your cap and gown and earn a degree in higher order mathematics (or not), its time to look at why game theory is not optimal for blackjack.

At first, it would seem that blackjack and say, Texas Holdem, are similar enough that if game theory applied to one (Holdem) it would apply to the other. However, theres something fundamentally different between the two activities and thats the level of interaction.

In Texas Holdem, there is no house and youre not playing the dealer. Each player is out to beat every other player in the game to win the pot. Player interaction is assured, thus, the essential definition of game theory is mettwo more players trying to get a better result.

This is not true in blackjack. You can play your entire hand of blackjack and have no interaction with another soul except hit me or stay. What your opponent doesin this case, the dealeris all mandated by a predetermined set of rules, so there really is no other player to play against.

In some ways, the closest you come to any kind of interaction in blackjack is that the players can affect the outcome of your hand by choosing to take cards or not. However, thats not the kind of decision that game theory can help with since you have no control over what other players do and you will never have enough information before the round is over on how previous plays affect your hand.

Frankly, if you could model that, youd have to take into account all previous hands because they all take cards from the same set of decks. Thats not mathematical modeling. Thats card counting.

Because of everything above, the general theory is that game theory (pun intended) isnt for blackjack. Theres not enough decision making for game theory to accurately model it.

At the end of the day, Im just not sure thats the whole story. Were not going to arrive at a true mathematical model of blackjack by the time this article is over, but there are at least good arguments that such a model should be able to exist.

How do we know a mathematical model can exist?

Its safe to say that your basic strategy blackjack players arent going to get much of a boost out of game theory.

Theres already a mathematical model to follow (basic strategy) that has been shown to produce favorable results in a lot of real world scenarios.

By the way, it should be pointed out that the above statement is not an indictment against basic strategy or blackjack players who follow it. I would advise literally everyone to follow basic strategy, especially in the beginning. However, basic strategy can be spruced up.

Dont let anyone fool you (including what I said above). Yes, the house in blackjack isnt as wily an opponent as those you might meet at a poker table, but blackjack has winners and losers. Theres strategy, and there are things you can do to win or at least increase your chances of getting a better result.

In my opinion, that makes them close enough to a game theory opponent that game theory could apply. What its missing, though, are additional sources of information, which is sometimes called counting cards (though neither you nor I will ever call it that).

Were just going to track aces, twos, threes, and kings. This is a variation on the strategy that the MIT blackjack team used to win a lot of money from the casinos.

Unfortunately, they were MIT kids and we are not. So, were just going to add one for each ace and king and subtract one for each two and three. The higher the number, the less likely the deck is going to produce a higher value card.

Of course, now we run into our problem.

Were still a mathematical model short of true game theory. This means that we have to build a model of when to stay, hit, etc. based on the value of our hand and the number in our head. We then have to convert that model into something that live humans can employ during the heat and emotion of a blackjack game.

Like I said above, were not going to solve blackjack and game theory today. Im merely saying that we can, at the end of the day, inject additional sources of information into what most think of as a system that wouldnt otherwise support it.

In other words, theres hope that with a little bit of mind tracking, we can develop a true model (not a fly-by-night system) that will let everyone dominate the poker table.

Game theory is a fascinating topic and a practice that is changing how were doing everything, including betting our chips at the poker table. It is somewhat unfortunate that there are not already prevalent applications of game theory to the game of blackjack, but part of that could just be basic strategys fault. Its a good system on its own.

Still, theres likely a time down the road when brilliant game theorists will look at blackjack and realize there is an untapped source of information that can be fed into a model, whether thats keeping track of a few cards.

I just cant wait for that day because then I can say, I told you so. Until then, Ill track the high cards and the low cards and build my own way to succeed at blackjack.

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Human Behavior

Jonathan T. Fluharty-Jaidee – The Conversation US

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Jonathan Fluharty's research interests lie in incentives and behavior within the field traditionally known as corporate finance. His work focuses closely in CEO compensation and the examination of the incentives contracts provide to CEOs with respect to risk-taking and investment policies. Dr. Fluharty also conducts research in mergers and acquisitions (M&A), dividend theory, and market microstructure, where he investigates trader behavior. Lastly, he finds studies engaging gender, sexuality, and culture at the cross section of human behavior and firm characteristics to be an intriguing sub-field.

Fluharty has taught courses in introductory corporate finance, personal finance, real estate, financial markets and institutions, international finance and advanced corporate finance, as well as introductory and intermediate accounting. Jonathan currently serves as a Teaching Assistant Professor (TAP) in finance and is the the finance department's Assistant Chair.

EducationPh.D. Finance, West Virginia University, 2018M.S. Finance, West Virginia University, 2013B.S. Accounting, West Virginia University, 2012B.A. English--Professional Writing and Editing, West Virginia University, 2012

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Jonathan T. Fluharty-Jaidee - The Conversation US

Human Behavior

The APA breaks its silence on video game violence – SVG

The American Psychological Association has continued to look into the effects of violent video games on players' behavior over the last several years. The APA have maintained in the past that there is a lack of evidence suggesting that video games can cause people to become outwardly violent. However, back in 2015, the APA looked into revising its previous statements in light of a rash of school shootings and other violent incidents.

This week, the APA published its latest findings in a new resolution, and it's fairly similar to the findings from previous studies. "There is insufficient scientific evidence to support a causal link between violent video games and violent behavior," says the APA official website.

According to APA PresidentPresident Sandra L. Shullman, PhD, "Violence is a complex social problem that likely stems from many factors that warrant attention from researchers, policymakers and the public.Attributing violence to video gaming is not scientifically sound and draws attention away from other factors, such as a history of violence, which we know from the research is a major predictor of future violence."

In other words, it is the opinion of the APA that people who fear the effects of video games on human behavior are focusing on the entirely wrong things. It should be noted, however, that the APA understands why it's such a concern. After all, in the last few decades, video games have increasingly become a part of daily life for multiple age groups.

The APA's findings are further elaborated upon in a document posted to the official site, which lays out the organization's latest resolution and where it intends to go from here in researching the issue. As the document states, "Considering the vast number of children and youth who use video games and that more than 85% of video games on the market contain some form of violence, the public has understandably been concerned about the effects that using violent video games may have on individuals, especially children and adolescents."

The APA has furthermore resolved to make a concerted effort to distribute these findings to educators and others working with children. It's important to the APA to communicate the idea that "all violence, including lethal violence, is aggression, but not all aggression is violence." Video games have been found to be an outlet for that aggression, a nonviolent escape for people.

However, the APA does feel that the ratings of games need to be updated to properly reflect the level of violence in games. In other words, despite there not being any measurable correlation between violence in video games, there are still things that young and impressionable gamers probably shouldn't be seeing. Let's face it: sometimes video games take things a bit too far.

Despite these findings, the resolution makes a point of mentioning that there are still gaps within the APA's research, gaps that the organization hopes to be able to fill in with additional time and funding. These included whether or not males or females were more susceptible to negative outcomes from violent video games and whether or not the genre of the games played had any effect on how the game was perceived by players.

Still, with this being such a hot button issue to this day, it's reassuring to know that the science behind it is being looked into. Last year, President Donald Trump pointed to violence in video games as a cause for a series of mass shootings. This drew the ire of several high profile gamers, including superstar streamer Tyler "Ninja" Blevins, who told TMZ at the time, "Come on, man.Have you seen Minecraft? What's violent about Minecraft, bro? Nothing, man."He further added, "Violence is not video games. Just how it is, man."

Likewise, Villanova University psychology professor Patrick Markey has likened the consumption of violent video games to the effects that any other type of entertainment would have on a person. According to Markey, "The general story is people who play video games right after might be a little hopped up and jerky but it doesn't fundamentally alter who they are. It is like going to see a sad movie. It might make you cry but it doesn't make you clinically depressed."

Despite this sentiment being shared by other gamers, researchers, and the APA, the stigma against video games persists. In fact, several games have been banned in the USA over the years due to their levels of violence. Hopefully the APA can continue this research and settle the issues in a definitive way.

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The APA breaks its silence on video game violence - SVG

Human Behavior

BWW Review: IN MY MIND’S EYE: An Exploration Of Relying On Inner Intuitions & Overcoming Obstacles at Group Repertory Theatre – Broadway World

We are first introduced to a young girl, a very assertive, opinionated young girl, definitely with a strong sense of identity, and self worth. She is heard speaking, which we come to find out is us hearing her inner thoughts and feelings, through her "Mind's Eye," her vocally taped diary, into a recorder.

The time is 1968.

We first view her as she runs, into, outside ~ an elderly man who has fallen in their garden, helping him up and, concerned, guides him inside her home, where she spends much of her sheltered life. Patty, played quite brilliantly by Peyton Kirkner, is both honest and earnest in her connection with her new and only friend, Calhoon (played wonderfully and with much heart by Lloyd Pedersen). They were instant friends; and even though Patty is legally blind they easily shared conversation. The actors totally conveyed that feeling, so it was all the more heart-wrenching when her mom, Lola Henderson, played determinedly by Maria Kress, who, understandably, is ultra protective, comes home and just couldn't fathom this new connection ~ having been the caretaker-mom all of Patty's life, this was a concern she had not yet encountered. Flash forward, and back and forth, throughout the rest of the play, this played out and developed one of the underlying themes while at the same time we were fast-forwarded to Patty (aka now renamed by herself, Trish) as a school teacher in 1981.

Patty/Trish has followed her early longings and has become what no one expected, a schoolteacher, a World Geography teacher at a Junior High! It is her first day, and Trish, played captivatingly and effervescently by Kait Haire, ends up meeting a charming teacher from the classroom next door who captures her spirit and helps her through her first day jitters. Hugo, played disarmingly and nobly by Bobby Slaski, secretly impresses Trish. He seems the perfect type for her, and we see their relationship blossom, albeit some issues to do with her mom accepting her diminished role in her daughter's life. They have connected on a whole different level, that transcends superfluous considerations.

Clara Rodriguez plays an appropriately matter-of-fact Dean of the junior high, yet with a tender touch.

When you get used to the time switches during the play, happening sometimes seemingly randomly, everything makes more sense in the end. Once I understood all the connections between the characters, it was a very engrossing and thought-provoking study in human behavior, needs and expectations.

Inspired by true events in his life with a childhood teacher, Doug Haverty, the diverse and accomplished playwright, originally workshopped and developed this play through Lonny Chapman's (The Founder and Artistic Director of Group Repertory Theatre) Playwright's Unit, in the early '80s and it was the first full-length play to be produced in their current theatre location. Doug, as the new Artistic Director as of this year, is carrying on the tradition of reinstating Lonny Chapman's Playwriting Unit, to help develop new and important works. That has always been Lonny's goal. Mr. Haverty has brought back his award-winning play to jump-start this new and exciting season.

There are many moving moments during the play, and it has a lot to say about overcoming and dealing with challenges that can be complicated, yet, with determination, can be conquered.

Direction by Bruce Kimmel is well-constructed, especially when blending the time differences in Patty's/Trish's age. The differences and the likenesses of the younger vs. older Patty are clearly defined, enriching the character and what she signifies. All of the characters portrayed are kind and caring individuals, who only want the best outcome.

The incidental music throughout was composed by Director Bruce Kimmel, which added greatly to the mood and feel of the play. The set design, by Pawena Sriha was extremely workable to allow time changes to transition seamlessly. Lighting and Costuming, by Douglas Gabtielle and Michael Mullens was enhancing and well-suited.

"In My Mind's Eye," Running at the Group Repertory Theater, through March 15th, it is an excellent play to launch GRT's 46th season, and paves the way to more special and moving presentations.

Produced by Bita Arefnia.

Check out: http://www.theGROUPrep.com Reservations & Info: 818.763.5990.

Photos Courtesy of Doug Engalla

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BWW Review: IN MY MIND'S EYE: An Exploration Of Relying On Inner Intuitions & Overcoming Obstacles at Group Repertory Theatre - Broadway World

Human Behavior

Sorry, Elon, fighter pilots will fly and fight for a long time – DefenseNews.com

In a room packed full of U.S. Air Force personnel this past week, SpaceX founder Elon Musk issued a bold pronouncement: The fighter jet era has passed. ... Locally autonomous drone warfare is where its at, where the future will be. The reaction in the room was immediate a collective pause.

News headlines around the world highlighted this pronouncement, and online debates erupted. While Musk certainly succeeded in being provocative, his forecast is less than accurate. Despite impressive gains in autonomous technology, manned fighter aircraft will continue to provide the underpinnings of the air superiority mission for decades into the future.

To put it simply, fighter aviation is one of the most demanding professions in the world. Only a small percentage of individuals can successfully master years worth of training and graduate to an operational fighter squadron. Even then it takes years of additional experience in a fighter cockpit to be competent. Nor does the quest stop there, with experienced fighter pilots having to train on a near-daily basis to maintain their skills.

The reason for this is simple: Qualified fighter pilots must be able to master highly aggressive, three-dimensional maneuvering at rates exceeding twice the speed of sound in a highly dynamic battlespace, operate highly sophisticated mission equipment, and face adversaries doing everything in their power to kill them. Success means doing it all over the next day. Failure generally equals death or capture.

Contrast that with the present state of artificial intelligence in a far simpler scenario. Musks self-driving cars operate in two dimensions, with predictable traffic laws, and understood human behavior. At the end of 2019, three Tesla cars using their autopilot feature crashed. One ran a red light, and the collision resulted in the death of two people. Another hit a parked firetruck with fatal results, and the third hit a police car on a highway. This is not to minimize the accomplishments of self-driving technology. However, it is prudent to point out that the potential of near-term and midterm autonomy should not be conflated with science fiction-like objectives.

It is far more productive to explore the real impact autonomy is having on military aviation. It excels where mission parameters are well-understood, unknowns are minimized and rules are followed. That is why the Air Force has been using autonomous reconnaissance aircraft like the RQ-4 Global Hawk to facilitate intelligence missions around the world. They follow a programmed mission track and return home safe with near certainty.

Forms of autonomy are already resident in fighters like the F-22 and F-35 to assist the pilot with a host of onboard functions. Autonomous aircraft will eventually join manned combat aircraft as mission partners a concept referred to as manned-unmanned teaming. Tests over the last few years have advanced key aspects of this promising technology. However, this is a far cry from autonomously executing a twisting, turning knife-edge dogfight. Trusting in an autonomous system to determine friend from foe and deploy lethal force without human approval is far from prudent. It is important to recognize that drones, like the MQ-1 Predator and MQ-9 Reaper, are remotely piloted, with humans handling the flying and weapons employment they are not terminator-like killing robots.

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In considering this issue, it is crucial to understand that air superiority the mission that fighter aircraft execute is literally one of the most important combat capabilities a nation can possess. Britains Royal Air Force fighter pilots literally saved their nation during the 1940 Battle of Britain. Conversely, a nation that cannot defend its skies against enemy attack cannot survive consider Germany in 1945 or Iraq in 1991. Nor are ships at sea, soldiers on the ground, space and cyber facilities, or support aircraft able to last without fighter protection. That is why Musks statement elicited a reaction of disbelief from the Air Force audience. These are men and women who put everything on the line to secure the sky. They know the technological art of the possible.

While autonomy is smart to pursue, it has far to go before it can fly and fight against a skilled adversary. Parking a car autonomously is not something to extrapolate into things that are critical to the defense of a nation.

The reality is that Americas current fighter fleet is obsolete. The average age of the Air Forces fighter inventory is over a quarter of a century. Less than 20 percent are ready to meet advanced threats with stealth technology. That is why programs like the F-35 must rapidly scale as the backbone of Americas air superiority force. The distant promise of autonomy must not be confused with meeting the clear and present threats of today and tomorrow.

Douglas Birkey is the executive director of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, where he researches issues relating to the future of aerospace and national security. He previously served as the Air Force Associations director of government relations.

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Sorry, Elon, fighter pilots will fly and fight for a long time - DefenseNews.com

Human Behavior

Worried About Coronavirus on the MTA Subway? Heres What We Know – The New York Times

There is perhaps no place in America harder to escape crowds than the New York City subway, which, as the nations largest transit system, carries more than five million people every weekday.

During rush hour, commuters squeeze in to find any available space, with hands sharing poles and faces separated by inches.

As cases of coronavirus increase in the United States and public health officials urge healthy Americans to avoid contact with those who are sick, many people who live and work in New York wonder how they can do that given the heavy reliance on public transit.

The Metropolitan Transportation Authority, which oversees the subway, buses and two commuter railroads, said late Monday that it had started a major cleaning of all equipment that called for an industrial-grade disinfectant to be applied to everything from train cars to MetroCard machines every 72 hours.

The authoritys announcement came a day before Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo said that the state had its second confirmed case of coronavirus, heightening public health concerns.

The patient, a man in his 50s, commuted regularly by Metro-North from Westchester County to a law firm in Midtown Manhattan, officials said. He had not traveled recently to any place with large concentrations of the virus and had not come into contact with an infected person, suggesting that the pathogen was spreading locally.

Health officials have warned that the virus seems to spread easily, traveling through the air in tiny droplets produced when a sick person breathes, talks, coughs or sneezes. The public is being urged to follow basic precautions like frequent hand-washing and staying home when sick.

As you get ready to jostle with strangers aboard a jam-packed subway car, heres what you need to know.

On the list of places where New Yorkers could contract the virus, the subway might seem to pose a high risk: millions of people filling stations and train cars where coughs and sneezes are familiar sounds and countless strangers put their hands on seats and poles.

But epidemiologists said that the risk of transmission connected to using public transit is hard to accurately assess.

Dr. Stephen S. Morse, an epidemiology professor at the Mailman School of Public Health at Columbia University, said that, generally speaking, two main factors determined the likelihood of contracting a virus in any given place: how crowded it is and how much time one spends there.

Yes, subway riders often stand shoulder to shoulder, which increases the chances of being on the receiving end of a sick persons cough or sneeze. The federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says that standing within six feet of a sick person could carry a risk of exposure.

But New Yorkers tend to spend less time on subways and buses than they do in other crowded spaces, like classrooms or offices, reducing the risk of being exposed to a virus during their daily commute.

The risk is probably as high as any other high-density setting, but the time of exposure is shorter, Dr. Morse said.

Although research on the coronavirus is still in the early stages, a 2011 study on a possible influenza outbreak in New York City found that only 4 percent of infections would occur on the subway.

More aggressive disinfecting of subways and buses is important, but the steps that people take to protect themselves and others are even more critical to safeguarding public health, epidemiologists say.

Human behavior is one of the most important factors in the transmission of these viruses, Dr. Morse said.

To protect yourself from any viral droplets you may have picked up on your commute, wash your hands with soap and water for at least 20 seconds, or use hand sanitizer, once you get off a train or a bus.

You should also avoid touching your face with your hands because the viral droplets must enter through the eyes, nose or mouth to cause infection.

Be sure to cover any cough or sneeze with a tissue. And if you feel sick, you should certainly stay away from public transit.

People have to start being really considerate and not going out and about when they are infected with anything, whether its the flu or coronavirus, said Dr. Robyn R. M. Gershon, a professor of epidemiology at New York Universitys School of Global Public Health.

Preliminary research suggests that particles from the virus may be able survive on hard surfaces, like a metal pole in a subway car, for a few hours, according to the World Health Organization. (Scientists are uncertain whether a surface like a metal pole could carry enough of the virus to cause a person to become sick.)

If there are more confirmed cases in New York, those riding the subway should avoid directly touching a pole, turnstile or a seat with their hands, Dr. Gershon said. If you need to hold onto something, put a tissue between your hand and the pole or clean it with an anti-viral wipe before touching it, she suggested.

On Monday, the transportation authority announced that it was increasing its efforts to sanitize the subway, buses and commuter rail lines, Metro North and the Long Island Rail Road.

The authority said it would begin disinfecting all train cars and buses every three days with bleach and disinfectants typically used in hospitals and nursing homes. Cleaning crews will also scrub subway stations, including turnstiles, benches and ticket-vending machines, once a day with disinfectants.

The safety of our customers and employees is our first priority as we continue to monitor the coronavirus, said Patrick Warren, the authoritys chief safety officer. The M.T.A. is enhancing its cleaning regimen across all our operating agencies to ensure the system is safe for everyone.

Authority officials have also contacted their counterparts at public transit systems in Japan and Europe and in other parts of the United States to explore other ways of disinfecting train cars and buses, officials said at a news conference on Tuesday.

From Monday evening to midday Tuesday, transit workers disinfected nearly all of the systems 472 subway stations, over 1,900 subway cars and nearly 2,000 buses, officials said. The authoritys entire fleet of subway cars and buses would be disinfected within 72 hours. After that, officials said, the cleaning process would begin again.

New Jersey Transit, which operates its own vast commuter rail and bus network, is also strengthening its cleaning regimen, using bleach or other anti-viral cleaning supplies to disinfect equipment and public facilities.

The agency recently formed an internal task force, which includes workers from its medical staff, to monitor news about the virus, officials said.

In other major cities experiencing outbreaks, transit officials have taken similar precautions. In Tehran, public health officials have said they are disinfecting buses at least four times a day and cleaning trains in the citys subway system at the beginning and end of each line. In Italy, buses, trains and ferries are also being disinfected regularly.

If the outbreak becomes more serious, health officials may recommend that public transit officials adopt more drastic measures.

They could suggest steps to reduce crowds like limiting peoples use of subways and buses to travel that is absolutely essential, like going to and from work, or changing train schedules to discourage travel during peak hours.

Even in a severe pandemic, the C.D.C. recommends that essential services like public transit continue to operate so that health care workers and other emergency responders can get to work.

It is more likely that city officials would try to reduce the use of public transportation by asking businesses to stagger working hours, as happened during the 1918 influenza pandemic, or letting their employees work from home.

In other cities around the world, some officials have taken more stringent steps to contain the viruss spread by effectively quarantining entire cities.

In China, government officials suspended public transit to and from Wuhan, the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak. In Italy, officials have set up roadblocks in at least 11 towns in the northern part of the country, which is among the most infected regions, to prevent people from leaving or entering the area.

What we saw in Wuhan and elsewhere is really a last resort, Dr. Morse said. At that point theres little else they can do to contain it.

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Worried About Coronavirus on the MTA Subway? Heres What We Know - The New York Times

Human Behavior

Health Catalyst points HIMSS20 attendees toward three AI trends – Healthcare IT News

Update: HIMSS20 has been canceled due to the coronavirus. Read more here.

The rise of artificial intelligence into the mainstream of healthcare information technology is one of the biggest trends at HIMSS20, according to analytics vendor Health Catalyst, which will be in booth 2428.

Healthcare IT News asked Jason Jones, chief data scientist officer at Health Catalystand a speaker at HIMSS20, about a few overarching trends surrounding AI that are important to HIMSS20 attendees. He says that a lack of results from healthcare AI implementations, algorithmic bias and difficulty attracting and retaining data science professionals are some key areas to watch.

Jones said the industry is not seeing healthcare AI results in the timeframe and to the magnitude hoped for. On a related note, there is the question of how healthcare-provider organizations deal with the crush from AI-powered health IT vendors in the space.

"It is very easy for individuals or organizations to get excited about their first AI project,"Jones said. "It is new, exciting and a bit magical. Out of dreams of doing good or pressure to perform, people would like to believe there is a solution. What is the problem? Building predictive models is very quick and easy."

Jones said the problems here are in four areas.

"First, ironically, the biggest obstacle toward solving a problem via leveraging AI can be that the problem to be solved is defined poorly or differently by different people,"he explained. "Start with a great problem statement and common understanding of what 'awesome'looks like across stakeholders. Second, technically, the difficult part is getting high-quality data to train the model commonly 50-100x more time and effort than building a predictive model."

Jason Jones, Health Catalyst

Evaluate whether the organization has the high-quality data it needs before starting an AI project, he advised; if not, acquire or improve available data or choose a different project, he cautioned.

"Third, most improvements in healthcare require behavior change on the part of physicians, nurses, administrators, members, patients, etc.," he said. "We do not need AI to tell us to eat and exercise well, it's just that it can be hard to do. When human behavior change is needed for success, we need tools and resources for change management."

And fourth, few AI efforts are set up for optimization or formal evaluation, Jones explained.

"If you fear you are being left behind in the AI race, consider the last time you felt left behind by an infomercial," he offered. "The claims of success for AI may not be much better founded. Focus on fundamentals, ask challenging questions, realize that AI typically fits into a workflow that requires multiple changes, and plan to monitor and improve over time."

Then there is the artificial intelligence problem known as algorithmic bias. How do healthcare-provider organizations deploy AI in such a way that they do not exacerbate health disparities?

"There has been an increase in concern that the 'move fast and break things'approach may have done more harm than good in particular and in aggregate," Jones stated. "People are intolerant of breaking things in healthcare in ways they feel could have been anticipated. We are justifiably and particularly angry when the nature of the failure involves disparity based upon personal characteristics such as gender, ethnicity, geographic location and socioeconomic status."

But healthcare does want algorithms to discriminate between people at greater or lesser risk for readmission or ready or not ready to quit smoking, for example.

"Remembering this helps us to think differently about AI," Jones said. "For algorithms to succeed, we should retain the right and accountability to define what we want the algorithm to do and not do and then measure against these desires. With that in mind, it is possible to go beyond fear of algorithmic bias to algorithms helping assure equity."

On whiteboards, healthcare-organization staff can convert equity from a balancing measure (possible harm) to an outcome (desired benefit) and then design and measure for that, he explained.

And Jones third healthcare AI trend surrounding HIMSS20 is how healthcare provider organizations attract and retain data science talent.

"It can feel as though it is very difficult and expensive to attract a data scientist," he said. "In healthcare, it can feel impossible to compete with the tech sector. If you feel this way, pause and consider your needs and assets. First, in healthcare, most of the technical time and effort is in gathering and preparing data data engineering. You may not need as many data scientists as you think, or you may be able to 'rent'one when you have the need."

Second, think about what the organization needs a data scientist to do for example, ask and answer questions better with data, and in a way staff can understand, he added.

"Test and evaluate for people who can do that," he advised. "Usually this means not using the 'Kaggle'(data competition) approaches. These are the aspects of data science that are both most technical and most easily automated."

And third, if a healthcare organization has a noble purpose, point this out and explain how the data scientist contributes, Jones advised.

"Give him or her opportunities to see that contribution firsthand from call centers, to boardrooms, to nurses' stations,"he concluded. "Taking these steps not only helps you attract and retain talent, but also helps you get better output through the data scientist better understanding the real problems and what solutions might look like."

Jones will be at HIMSS20 on a panel entitled "Analytics to Algorithms: How to Maximize Impacts" on Monday March 9. He also will be presenting alongside Dr. Terri Steinberg during a presentation entitled "Machine Learning and Data Selection for Population Health"on Thursday, March 12.

Twitter:@SiwickiHealthITEmail the writer:bill.siwicki@himssmedia.comHealthcare IT News is a HIMSS Media publication.

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Health Catalyst points HIMSS20 attendees toward three AI trends - Healthcare IT News

Biochemistry

UVM Appoints New Dean of Agriculture and Life Sciences – UVM News

University of Vermont Provost and Senior Vice President Patricia Prelock today announced the appointment of Leslie V. Parise, Ph.D., as dean of the College of Agriculture and Life Sciences (CALS).

Parise has built a long and successful career at the University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill (UNC-CH), where she rose through the ranks from assistant to full professor. For the past decade, Parise has served as the chair of the Department of Biochemistry and Biophysics, which currently ranks fifth in the United States for National Institutes of Health-funded biochemistry departments.

Dr. Parise is a strong proponent of translating research to benefit society, said Prelock. She impressed the search committee with her understanding of the importance of UVMs land-grant mission, and the critical role CALSand UVM Extensionhave played in advancing this mission. She has a track record of working with faculty to promote inventions, patenting, and licensing agreements. And her entrepreneurial mindset resonates with the innovative spirit so central to our UVM community. I have no doubt that Dr. Parise will be an exceptional leader and member of our community.

President Garimella said of her appointment, We are delighted that Dr. Leslie Parise is joining the University of Vermont as dean of the College of Agriculture and Life Sciences. She brings an impressive skillset to the university: great prowess in basic and translational research, longtime success promoting entrepreneurship and technology transfer, a commitment to student success, and a proven track record as a leader. We very much look forward to welcoming her to the UVM community.

Parise said she is honored to join the UVM community. CALS and UVM Extension play an incredibly important role in demonstrating the power of UVMs land-grant mission, she said. I look forward to meeting and working closely with the world-class faculty, staff and students of UVM, along with residents of Vermont. Finding ways to further engage our constituents to strategically maximize the educational, research and service missions of CALS, and to increase its visibility across the state and beyond will be among my priorities. I look forward to further positioning CALS as a microcosm for positive global impact.

Widely recognized for cardiovascular and cancer research, Parises work has been continuously funded, including more than $14.5M from the NIH. She is also a strong advocate for faculty and student advancement. As department chair at UNC, she worked with faculty, students and postdoctoral fellows to reinvigorate programs through a range of approaches including enhanced internal communication and planning, and increased mentoring.

Parise helped faculty maintain and grow funding through partnerships across campus and with neighboring institutions to facilitate greater investment from foundations and government agencies such the Keck Foundation, American Heart Association, National Institutes of Health and the National Science Foundation. She also facilitated partnerships with neighboring institutions to stimulate investment in a highly transformative technology for solving molecular structures called cryo-electron microscopy.

In 2017, Parise was elected Chair of the Faculty at UNC-CH, a role she held until May 2019. In this capacity, she represented all 3,800 faculty of the UNC-CH campus, interacting closely with the chancellor, provost, deans and faculty from within the university, as well as UNCs Board of Trustees, system president, and a faculty assembly from across the states 17-campus system. She has worked closely on issues ranging from curriculum changes, to budget models, to advancing diversity.

Parise will join UVM on May 15.

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UVM Appoints New Dean of Agriculture and Life Sciences - UVM News

Biochemistry

Coronavirus Ireland: What exactly is Covid-19 and what will happen next? Biochemistry expert Prof Luke O’Neill explains – Independent.ie

How can something so tiny be wreaking such havoc? SARS-CoV2 is the name of the virus that causes the new disease Covid-19, named on February 11.

t is so small that 500 million of them would fit on the full stop at the end of this sentence. David and Goliath, except David isn't even as big as an ant when compared to Goliath. And yet look what's happening. Economic turmoil. Cities and towns in quarantine. People not travelling for holidays or weddings. Sporting events cancelled. People who feel sick and who have met someone with the virus keeping themselves in isolation for 14 days. And the fear that the worst is yet to come outside China where it all started. That something so tiny can pack such a punch is a testament to how powerful viruses can be.

Viruses were first observed in 1948 with an especially powerful microscope called the electron microscope. The first members of the viral rogues gallery to be seen were the viruses that cause polio and smallpox. Both are highly contagious (around three-fold more than SARS-CoV2) and wreaked havoc in humans for centuries, paralysing us, disfiguring us and killing us. Then vaccines were developed and that put an end to that, with smallpox being eradicated completely and polio almost beaten.

Apart from being able to see them, scientists also figured out what viruses were made of. They have a coat made of fat, so they don't dissolve in water, although alcohol can dissolve them, which is why alcohol hand rubs are good at killing them.The alcohol dissolves the fat. Inside the fatty bag lies their genetic material - the recipe that can be read to make more virus. They also have proteins sticking out of the bag and they use these proteins to latch on to the cells they want to infect. A bit like a key, the protein fits into a lock on the surface of the cell the virus wants to infect and opens the door.

In the case of SARS-CoV2, the proteins occur on the end of the spikes that make the crown that surrounds them. This is why it's called a corona virus. They stick the spike key into a lock called ACE2 on your lung cells and the virus then gets inside. This is why it infects your lungs: that's where the ACE2 lock is.

It needs to get inside the cell to use it as a factory to make more viruses.

The ultimate parasite

Viruses are the ultimate parasite. As far as we know they bring no benefits. A bit like unwelcome guests who come to stay, procreate in your guest room having eaten all your food and drunk your wine, and then leave without saying thanks.

The recipe that SARS-CoV2 has to make more of itself is called RNA. This is why SARS-CoV2 is a bit like flu - the influenza virus also has RNA as its recipe, as do viruses that cause the common cold and Aids. There are plenty of types of RNA viruses.

Once it's made copies of itself, it leaves and moves on to another cell. The trouble is, it sometimes kills the cell it infected - the guests leave a bomb as they depart - and that's when the trouble can begin. You start to hurt. Influenza will kill billions of cells in your lungs in a typical infection, which causes fluids to build up making it hard to breathe. That can really irritate your lungs. And then you cough it out. The virus makes you cough because it wants to spread. The drops of spit fly through the air and land on surfaces where someone else picks them up and then touches their nose or mouth and the virus enters a new body. The unwanted guests have moved next door.

This is why it's important to wear a mask if you're infected since that traps the virus. And why the number one recommendation of the World Health Organisation is to wash your hands. And why it's good to clean surfaces if you've someone in your house who's infected. Wearing a mask doesn't seem to protect people much as they fidget with it or take it off a lot. And the virus can probably get in through your eyes anyway.

Natural defence

But now some good news. Luckily evolution has helped you. Your immune system is on hand to recognise the intruder and bring out the big guns to kill it. It's like you've got on your iPhone and called for the gardai to get rid of your unwelcome guests (if possible, before they have done the deed in your guest room).

The immune system has evolved all kinds of ways to recognise and eliminate the intruder. It has special sensors for the virus's RNA which set off the alarm. It can also detect the spike protein. Your immune system can make antibodies and these latch on and stop the virus getting into cells. A bit like putting blu-tack over the key. The antibodies also help immune cells eat the virus.

Your immune system even has a way of killing the virally-infected cell. This is almost like the gardai deciding to blow up your house. It is worth it because it stops the virus (or your guests) moving into other houses in your neighbourhood. Remember, they've multiplied. So blowing up one house saves many.

If you're healthy, your immune system works a treat. The gardai are well fed, have had a good night's sleep and have the weapons to do their job. And, once the job is done, they are highly experienced. Should the unwanted virus turn up again, they can recognise and kill it on sight. This is how vaccines work. They are weakened forms of a virus, or parts of it, which train the immune system so that when the real culprit comes along, the immune system is ready to attack and you are protected.

So what can go wrong?

In the case of Covid-19 (and influenza), people who are sick with other ailments (for example cancer or heart disease) can't mount a proper defense and so the virus runs riot. Their immune systems aren't up to the job because of the other illnesses they have. Sadly, this can mean fatalities which at this stage are around 2pc and mainly involve people with other illnesses. As we age, our immune system does, too, so this puts older people at risk. We therefore need a vaccine and huge efforts are going into that with the real hope that one will be available in nine-12 months.

Doctors are also testing medicines to stop the virus from harming us. Drugs used to treat HIV are showing promise; HIV is somewhat similar because it has RNA too.

A drug used to treat malaria called chloroquine is also showing promise, as are high doses of steroids. What these drugs do is interesting. Although the immune system is failing in people who get really sick, it turns out that one part is over-active. Because the virus is running rampant, it hugely provokes this part (called innate immunity) which causes a process called inflammation to kick off - this makes your temperature go really high and causes your lungs and other organs to fail.

What people actually die of is the friendly fire caused by this over-active inflammatory response which is sometimes called a 'Cytokine Storm'. Steroids and chloroquine put that fire out and so protect you.

It's a bit like where there were two unwanted visitors in your house, there are now thousands and the gardai get their batons out and go to work on them. A melee ensues and sadly in the violence and chaos you die. Not a good result. Steroids and chloroquine are like cold water being sprayed over the gardai.

What next?

SARS-CoV2 is a new virus so we have to be vigilant. The death rate is unlikely to go up and if anything might go down as more people are found to have fought it. It also mutates at a rate slower then say HIV or influenza so it can't change itself too readily.

This means that once your immune system recognises it and eliminates it, it will recognise it again. A change might also mean it becomes more toxic, killing more, but again this is unlikely.

It may well enter the community and become just another virus that causes flu-like symptoms that we learn to live with. It might weaken as it adapts to us. Killing us is in general a bad idea for a virus - it's like those guests... why would they kill you when they want to sponge off you again? Many will develop resistance and refuse the unwanted guests entry. And when we have a vaccine, the vulnerable can be protected.

Right now though, follow the guidelines. Isolate yourself if you have symptoms and have come into contact with someone with the virus and call your GP. No need if you don't meet these criteria. Wash your hands a lot.

Soap and water is fine -work up a good lather as viruses hate soap because it dissolves them. If you're vulnerable, don't travel to places where the virus is. We all just need to keep calm, remain vigilant and wait it out. This too will pass.

Luke O'Neill is professor of biochemistry in the School of Biochemistry and Immunology at Trinity College Dublin

Originally posted here:
Coronavirus Ireland: What exactly is Covid-19 and what will happen next? Biochemistry expert Prof Luke O'Neill explains - Independent.ie

Biochemistry

Hormones, the road to Damascus – Telangana Today

Many talk freely about hormones, but only a handful really know about them, their source, origin and still very few, if at all, have any clue on their function.All my fellow iron warriors, I need to address you that all of us are captives of our hormones. Our very existence and training progress and many bodily functions are totally controlled by our hormones. Hormones are secreted by various glands comprising the endocrine system.

The two types of hormones concerning our interests are steroids and polypeptides. They course through our bodies and eventually act on a target organ. The problem lies with the fact that, we, through our various researches, have only a minute clue about their individual potential and how they collaborate.

Steroidal hormones are a product of cholesterol, produced in the gonads (testis and ovaries) and the cerebral cortex (brain), and the second type the polypeptide hormones are manufactured by various other glands through different combinations of amino acids. The hormones regulate almost all of our bodily functions.

The endocrine system synergises with the nervous system to give the human body a comprehensive benefit. The direct effect of the hormones is a tad bit difficult to understand but the resultant effect is of the greatest concern to all physical culturists.

An analogy in this regard will reveal it all. In a game of carroms, the striker coin coincides the second coin to strike the third coin in the hole. A biochemical example in this regard would be insulin, a hormone released by the beta cells in the islets of Langerhans in our pancreas, elevates cellular uptake of glucose, which, in turn, causes increased muscle glycogen synthesis and hence reduces blood-borne glucose which, again, causes a dip in insulin response.

During steady state activities like marathon running, this reduction in blood glucose and the resultant decrease in insulin production causes an increase in the mobilisation of stored fat. Phew! A lot of complex biochemistry one may say, but, instead, following our logic and reasoning ability we can easily comprehend and conclude that it is the demand that creates supply.

Taking few above-mentioned biochemical facts into consideration, one can easily conclude that workouts must necessarily exert the practitioner, stretching their physical thresholds, and, when the body undergoes this intensity of exercise, the systemic fatigue that accrues demands one to rest amply without which productivity becomes indirectly proportional.

Intensity, as the hard core proponents of this word would define, would be One has not any clue of high intensity exercise if one has not puked after performing one set of one single rep of a barbell bicep curl.

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Hormones, the road to Damascus - Telangana Today