Human Behavior

What We Do (And Dont) Know About When Chicago Will Reach Its COVID-19 Peak – WBEZ

When it comes to COVID-19, no one has a crystal ball.

State leaders expressed some cautious optimism this week as data show the number of new COVID-19 cases leveling off in Illinois as the state continues to flatten the curve.

But despite extensive modeling, its been difficult to pinpoint whether the worst of the pandemic is over in Chicago, when that might be or what lies ahead.

While models can guide leaders and doctors, they arent perfect. For one, theyre only as good as the data fed to researchers, and local researchers say its been difficult to get that data quickly.

This lack of structured surveillance and sluggish data flow from [the Illinois Department of Public Health] to researchers constrain our ability to understand the current situation and evaluate the effects of potential interventions, said Sarah Cobey in an email. She is principal investigator at the Cobey Lab at the University of Chicago where she and her team study the ecology and evolution of pathogens.

Here are a few other reasons experts say its so difficult to know when the worst of this pandemic is behind us.

Testing for coronavirus hasnt been available enough across the United States to truly understand the extent that the virus has spread in our local communities.

Until we really know those metrics its hard to get a handle on planning on how this may evolve over time, said Dr. Ronald Hershow, director of the division of epidemiology and biostatistics at the University of Illinois at Chicago.

As testing expands, those models change, which experts say is positive.

That's why the numbers have all changed in the last 36 hours, said Dr. Robert Murphy, executive director of the Institute of Global Health at Northwestern University, on Monday. Theres not going to be 100,000 deaths based on the model now. So, they've adjusted that model.

Scientists are also excited for a new antibody test that could determine how many people may have had the virus and recovered, and provide additional information about how much the virus has spread. That kind of information could be another piece of data to help improve the predictive models.

Experts said no matter how much data we have, models can't predict one vital factor: human behavior. As weeks of social distancing turn into months, will people continue to follow those directives as stringently?

You can fatigue on prevention strategies, you can burn out in them, said Hershow. To what extent will that happen and how will that influence future events regarding this part virus? There's no way of predicting that exactly.

Its unclear how the coronavirus will continue to spread during the summer months and how warmer temperatures might affect the virus. Some experts have expressed concern of a fall resurgence. A spike in cases could also happen if governments reopen society too quickly, which doctors cautioned could have swift consequences.

You may have some states that have a double hump where they go down, they lift restrictions too soon and then they go up, said Murphy.

Doctor Bala Hota at Rush University likened that possibility to dealing with a mountain range rather than a single peak.

As some states or regions bend the curve before others, its also unclear how the United States would prevent infected people from states with weaker restrictions from traveling to areas where the virus presence is reduced or eradicated.

Shelter in place and social distance are working, Murphy said. But what about these states that came on late and have more holes than rules?

He said thats where strong leadership is required.

Theres one thing all these scientists agree on: the easiest way to avoid a mountain range of surges in the coming months is to accept that things will not go back to normal quickly.

As Illinois sees cases level right now, doctors and scientists said people should not take that to mean they can ease up on social distancing.

It makes me uncomfortable even saying, Oh things are looking up a little bit, because it depends on all of us doing the right thing, Hota said.

He and others said social distancing should continue, even as governments ease up restrictions.

I would envision lets say when people go to restaurants in the fall they'll still be wearing masks and tables will be further apart and those kind of adjustments, said Hershow. Then theres doctors waiting rooms and all kinds of settings to think about.

Its likely well continue to see increased hospitalizations and even deaths over the next few weeks as the virus continues to run its course. But bending the curve and keeping it down means stopping the virus from spreading in the first place. For now, experts say that means staying at home

Its not time to relax, said Hershow. Its not Miller time as far as this virus is concerned.

Kate McGee covers education for WBEZ. Follow her on Twitter @WBEZeducation and @McGeeReports.

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What We Do (And Dont) Know About When Chicago Will Reach Its COVID-19 Peak - WBEZ

Human Behavior

Opinion: Dont Reopen San Diego Until Hospitals Are Fully Supplied with Resources – Times of San Diego

Share This Article:A Scripps Health medical team. Photo courtesy of ScrippsBy Chris Van Gorder

I have been in healthcare now for more than 40 years and have always been proud of my profession and community service but I have to admit, I have never been prouder to be both in health care and law enforcement than I am today.

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For healthcare providers the physicians, nurses, technicians and support teams the COVID-19 pandemic is their 9-11. Its their Pearl Harbor. For the first responders, this is a new kind of 9/11. But whatever the cause, the first responders are still running in while others run out. This time, though, they are joined by our committed health care providers.

Im also proud of how our hospitals and health care systems have come together as they always do in times of disaster to work together for the good of community. Today in San Diego County, patients are being cared for by a healthcare community not a group of independent hospitals and health systems. And that healthcare community is working hand-in-glove with our elected officials and county public health.

I want to extend thanks to these officials for listening to healthcare leaders several weeks ago when we asked to shut down much of San Diego County to flatten the curve. We asked for that so as not to overwhelm the healthcare system as we have seen elsewhere in Asia, Europe and even parts of the United States. And cautiously speaking it appears we have been successful so far. Those difficult decisions and the support of our community businesses and citizens alike have saved lives and countless heartbreak.

But now I hear talk of easing those restrictions and Im concerned once again for several reasons.

There are troubling stories coming out of Baja, Mexico, that indicate that our neighbors to the south have not been as successful as we have been in flattening the COVID curve, and we know that many people still cross the border every day for economic and personal reasons. Scripps has many employees who live in Mexico and we are concerned for them. This could be an issue for a border community like San Diego.

We know human behavior. Once we start to ease restrictions, people will start to interface more in public and we could very likely see another spike in patients thus making the success to date a moot point and a wasted effort.

And we still do not have the medical supplies necessary to treat patients in a surge, nor do we have a reliable source of resupply for hospital protective equipment for our staff and physicians.

So, I propose a trigger to start easing restrictions and reopening businesses. These will be tough decisions, I realize, and ones I dont have to make.

I learned a long time ago that to win a battle and this is indeed a healthcare battle your frontline soldiers must have the supplies and equipment needed to protect themselves and win. Battles are often won by logistics not just by the soldiers.

So, I propose that the trigger to relax regulations and reopen society be when we are sure that our healthcare providers have all of the personal protective gear they need, along with the ventilators, pharmaceuticals and other supplies required to care for our COVID-19 patients and the other emergency patients we see on a daily basis. This means we should make sure that hospitals, skilled nursing facilities, long-term care facilities and home health agencies, as well as all of our first responders, have what they need to do the job.

COVID-19 is now community spread. Its not going away anytime soon. If the powers that be reopen society before we are ready, we will see a rebounding of cases and the healthcare providers will be on the front-line of that battle as they are today. So lets make sure if we see that spike, that we are ready this time.

Shame on us as a society if we reopen before we can give these heroes that assurance. We can do this and we should do this.

Chris Van Gorder is president and CEO of Scripps Health, which operates five acute-care hospitals and 28 outpatient centers and clinics in San Diego County.

Opinion: Dont Reopen San Diego Until Hospitals Are Fully Supplied with Resources was last modified: April 15th, 2020 by Editor

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Opinion: Dont Reopen San Diego Until Hospitals Are Fully Supplied with Resources - Times of San Diego

Human Behavior

Commentary: Renewable energy must be the future, if we are to have one at all – Kenosha News

So the faster the world can minimize reliance on burning fossil fuels, the better chance we have at limiting the rise in global temperatures to 1.5 degrees Celsius over preindustrial levels, the limit scientists (yes there are such people walking among us) say we need to observe if we are to avoid the worst effects of our profligate carbon emissions.

According to Carbon Brief, observing that 1.5-degree Celsius limit will require us to reduce global coal use by 80% this decade.

The current coronavirus pandemic has, at least temporarily, made a significant impact on greenhouse gas emissions. But that reflects a stalled economy rather than smart energy consumption choices. The pandemic is a naturally occurring threat to humans, as were SARS and MERS before it. Global warming, by contrast, is being driven by human behavior; it is a self-inflicted crisis.

We can best address the climate crisis by changing practices, by converting our global economy from fossil fuels to renewable sources, by using the force of our collective will to change our collective behavior and reduce the damage our actions inflict on the environment, which we rely on for our very survival.

The stats that show we are moving in the right direction, albeit it too slowly, are a positive sign during these trying days.

But they are also a further spur to action. We can see where decisions, policies and actions lead to positive effects, but also where continued self-destructive actions beginning with burning coal imperil us all.

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Commentary: Renewable energy must be the future, if we are to have one at all - Kenosha News

Human Behavior

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo: ‘God Did Not Stop Spread Of Virus’ – Patheos

Refreshing Honesty: New York Governor Andrew Cuomo tells CNN that Our behavior has stopped the spread of the virus. God did not stop the spread of the virus.

Cuomo, speaking with CNNs Alisyn Camerota about the current coronavirus pandemic, and how he plans to move forward, said:

Look, anyone who tells you, Alisyn, I know what comes next, doesnt even understand the question, let alone have the answer. Nobody has been here before, this is totally unchartered territory. And youre right, you have different peaks of that curve in different areas, so were not talking about the next two weeks or three weeks, were talking about months, were talking about a phase to reopening, and the safe reopening. Were talking about a reopening that has a public health plan and an economic plan totally coordinated. Our behavior has stopped the spread of the virus. God did not stop the spread of the virus. And what we do, how we act, will dictate how that virus spreads.

Cuomo added:

We changed the trajectory of the virus by our actions. And thats the real important lesson to me.

Cuomo cautioned that easing COVID-19 restrictions too soon could have potentially disastrous results:

I want to get out of the house, trust me. Everybody does. But if you move too quickly and not smartly, you will see the numbers go right back up again and youll have to do another lock-down. The federal government has to be realistic about this. You cant just wish it and then it is so.

Watch the video below relevant remarks begin at the 1:11 mark:

Cuomo is right. Prayers do not effect the virus. Some imaginary God does not effect the virus. But people, human behavior, can and do effect the virus.

Yesterday, speaking during a press briefing about the number of people infected with the virus, the governor said something similar, declaring:

The number is down because we brought the number down. God did not do that. Fate did not do that. Destiny did not do that. A lot of pain and suffering did that.

While many had no problem with Cuomos refreshing honesty concerning the impotence of an imaginary God, some were disturbed by Cuomos honesty. For example:

Bottom line: In a refreshing bit of honesty, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo tells CNN that Our behavior has stopped the spread of the virus. God did not stop the spread of the virus.

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New York Governor Andrew Cuomo: 'God Did Not Stop Spread Of Virus' - Patheos

Human Behavior

Living on the edge No. 104 | Guest Column – Rawlinstimes

As the various systems of self-quarantine have been instituted across the U.S. and around the world, many people have found themselves with inordinate amounts of time on their hands. And while initially, the idea of endless free time may have sounded rather attractive, the truth is that what makes weekends and vacations so much fun is that they are a break from the challenges and drudgeries of work. Take away work and suddenly, theres not all that much to enjoy about days melting into nights with little happening in between.

Now to be fair, these arent normal circumstances, and this present situation isnt exactly a vacation. Its like winning a free trip to Disneyland, only to find when you arrive that all the rides have been shut down and the concessions are closed. Its all well and good to be told to stay home from work, but when you get there only to find that theres nowhere to go from there, no fun places you can go out to visit, no friends or family you can hang with well, heck, why not be back at work? And worse, for many this is hardly a vacation when, after a short while, you find out that theres no paycheck coming in, or worse, no job to go back to.

For me and so many others, this has been a time to resort to various vices including, of course, the use of social media. True, there are some folks who to this day, avoid these media, and I get that. In fact, if ever there was a time to see some of the worst aspects of human behavior writ large, it is now, spread throughout our various feeds. Every crank, bully and conspiracy theorist is taking to his (or her) keyboard with a fury these days, spouting off in ways that are in no way helpful when people are anxious and fearful. At a time when the most basic of concerns are in question our health and the health of our loved ones there are those who seek to pursue their own agendas for their own questionable purposes.

And yet, above the din of anger and angst, there has arisen a chorus of voices who simply wont have it, and it is these folks who deserve our attention, our appreciation, and our respect. While we are feeling frightened and insecure, there are some who seek instead to bring us what we most crave: firstly, information, because some of us can never get enough news about the statistics, seeming to believe that by knowing the math of it all, we can figure this madness out, as if it were some complex but solvable calculus equation (yes, I would put myself into this category).

And for others, the social media masters provide something of equal value in the form of distractions. Some post random, campy jokes. Others post humorous photos of their pets. And still others come up with goofy, mindless games and challenges that, in truth, are nothing more than time-wasters. Examples include the suggestion of posting photos of a landscape in which you do not appear, or of posting a photo of yourself aside a photo of your eldest child.

Most recently, a number of challenges have been posted in which one is asked to answer a series of personal (yet irrelevant) questions such as Have you ever acted in a play? Hitchhiked? Won a trophy? And lest we believe that such challenges are American-specific, I recently saw an Italian version of this silliness, including a questionnaire completed by one of my Sicilian cousins. The list varied a bit, however, and included questions such as Have you ever climbed a volcano? (To which, curiously, he answered yes).

Lastly, there is a small genre of spiritual and religious material now manifest across the media. Obviously, this is a time of anxiety and uncertainty. And yet by the very nature of the situation all peoples of faith, regardless of conviction, are forced to face these worries while separated from one another, outside of the traditional frameworks of prayer and mutual support. But again, social media (and various video conference interfaces) allow some to experience a shared spiritual connection. It is not ideal, nor does it supplant a face-to-face experience. But under the present circumstances, it is certainly better than nothing.

As those familiar with 20th century history are aware, the heyday of American cinema coincided with the WWII era. In the pre-television age, the movie house served as both a space of information as well as a center of entertainment, release and distraction from the worries of the day. News of the War was disseminated in twice-weekly newsreels, which were played before each feature film. In this way, the big screen served as a vehicle of common cultural experience and the reification of American identity building.

Today Facebook, Instagram and other social media platforms provide the virtual space where, on any given day, information, values and attitudes are developed and then disseminated. Ironically, these media are ideally suited to the present situation, in which we may only connect from afar, may only speak so long as there is a barrier between us and where, (contrary to what I have written elsewhere), sharing a #virtualcoffee or #virtualbeer with a friend is now not only possible, but in fact, preferable to the real thing.

As we continue to shelter in place, it is in our best interests to think about something, anything, but the elephant in the livingroom. And so, for now at least, we turn to the small screen. For like the big screen back in the day, it provides us with a particularly ideal portal through which to access what we most need right now the ability to overcome time and space, and in so doing, to imagine a better tomorrow.

Steven C. Dinero, PhD is the Executive Director of the Carbon County Museum.

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Living on the edge No. 104 | Guest Column - Rawlinstimes

Human Behavior

Rush Limbaugh: I hope that there’s some governor that grows so fed up with it, that he just reopens – Media Matters for America

Citation From the April 14, 2020, edition of Premiere NetworksThe Rush Limbaugh Show

RUSH LIMBAUGH (HOST): Folks, Im going to tell you something, right here and right now. I am suspicious of anybody who doesnt want this economy reopened. It ought to be the overriding objective of everybody including the health people. Even if its just a desire, even if it is something they dont think that can happen, it ought to be a desire.

When I see people, when I detect people who are not interested in this Im sorry, I cant help it, I get suspicious. It ought to be the overriding desire of everybody. This is not sustainable. We are destroying the economy. Every day that its shut down, were destroying it every day. We did it to ourselves.

And I the idea that there are people who think this could go on, like this, with no end in sight? Thats absurd. Its absurd on its face. Everything happening today is in violation of basic human nature everything. We dont shut down for illness, ever. We never have shut down for illness before. Weve never shut down for mass death. Weve never done it before. Weve never shut down on the projection of mass death. Weve never done it before.

And, Im sorry, when I encounter but Im not talking just about Dr. Fauci anybody. I know that the Democrat Party wants to keep this shutdown for as long as they can, as a political objective. They know how damaging this is, to the president. They know how damaging it potentially is, when the election comes up.

But throw the election out, just forget politics for a moment. Anybody not interested in doing whatever has to be done to get the economy going, to get people living their dreams again anybody who is not focused on that, is automatically suspicious to me. Because I cant relate to it, I cant fathom it.

To me, we are way beyond this making sense. I understand why we had to do it. But even then, weve never done it before never. And I just Im having daily, increasing trouble with this.

And now more and more people are talking about it, which is giving the impression that it is finally imminent, and somehow this May 1st date has popped up. And now that it has, here comes the crowd that doesnt want it to happen.

Do you realize how against our nature this whole thing is? Forget Americans human beings. Human beings are not designed were not created, designed, to sit around.

But, Rush, but Rush. Theres a killer, thats invisible out there, it could kill anybody.

Death is present every day. Death surrounds us. Death, sadly, is part of the human existence.

No, Im not imagining questions here Im not suggesting we shouldnt have done that. I'm not even going to go there, because thats pointless. We did it. That debates going to happen. Mark my words, that debates going to happen.

You know, the debate is going to center around the computer models. Because the computer models combined with the great thinking of American politicians is what shut us down. Computer models, which havent been right yet. They havent even been close to being right yet.

Im hoping that theres a state somewhere out there that grows so fed up with this some governor that grows so fed up with it, that he just reopens. Something is going to have to happen, something has got to give. This just is not sustainable, in any which way you wish to categorize it.

And I do not believe that it represents greed or selfishness, at all, to be desirous of people earning a living again, and of people producing things, and the American economy.

What is the American economy? Its not a complicated thing. Its people getting up and living their lives creating commerce amongst themselves. The American economy is virtually everything human behavior takes human behavior engages in. You are engaging in the economy when you go to the gym, when you go to yoga class, youre engaging in the economy. When you walk down the street, youre engaging in the economy, because you had to go buy the clothes youre wearing in order to walk down the street, and not get arrested for nudity.

Virtually everything you do is economic and the more of it, the better the more of it, the more prosperous everybody is.

And it boggles my mind that there are people in responsible positions of power, who do not seem to have it reopening as an objective. I can understand medical people being worried. I can understand that there may not be time. I can understand medical people saying, Its going to be really, really risky.

But the idea that we shouldnt do it? Sorry, doesnt compute. Thats not workable. Thats not doable. Not reopening is not doable.

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Rush Limbaugh: I hope that there's some governor that grows so fed up with it, that he just reopens - Media Matters for America

Human Behavior

Risk management in a time of crisis – Investment Magazine

Markets in disarray are where long-term investors make their money. Investing countercyclically when many others without long-term liquidity are selling is a clear advantage for long-term investors. Investors that perform the best over the long term will have taken calculated and deliberate risks and put money to work during crises like this one.

But how? While we didnt predict a pandemic, FCLTGlobal had market events like this one in mind when we published Balancing Act: Managing Risk for Multiple Time Horizons, and that research provides tools that long-term investors can use right now.

Rebalancing consistently with your funds policy is one such tool.

Take for example a message that one of us sent last week in the capacity of an endowment trustee advising the full board: Panic is contributing to the market crash and, when we see opportunities to buy fundamentally-strong assets at a discount, we will. This may create the short-term appearance of compounding our losses, but the long-term effect of buying low will be an opportunity to sell high in the future, add real value to our fund, and increase grant-making.

Research associated with Balancing Act discusses why each part of this message is important. It explains the investment tactics in terms of the organizations purpose: whether that is grant-making, building retirement savings, or funding liabilities. It sets expectations honestly: our tactics are going to make things seem worse before they seem better, but its worth it for fulfilling our purpose. And it defines the tactic rebalancing consistently with policy in terms that will be familiar to a range of stakeholders, not just the finance people: buying fundamentally strong assets at a discount.

Behavioral scientists note the importance of the framing effect, particularly as we react more strongly to losses that we do to gains. Rather than framing the conversation around peak to trough losses, investors that track how they are progressing towards their long-term goals even if they may have taken steps back from their goals through this time are more likely to be confident in their decision to proceed with rebalancing in down equity markets.

Drawing on set-aside funds is another tool that long-term investors can use right now. The way to permanently impair capital in a down market is to sell positions, realize losses and remove the ability to bounce back. Crises like this are why set-asides exist. Using the set-aside money for liquidity spares organizations from having to realize losses in the core portfolio.

We all recognize this mental-accounting behavior. This same endowment uses exactly this sort of set-aside account to shelter eighteen months worth of grantmaking and operational costs from market risk. Having that resource adds to the organizations liquidity and the boards confidence in a way that makes rebalancing possible.

True impairment means becoming unable to do the organizations work or fulfill its purpose. This set-aside, or rainy-day fund, provides the staying power to continue the work long enough for markets to rebound. Furthermore, because the organization has the set-aside as a source of funding during down markets, there is more patience with performance in the core investment account even to the level of being willing to rebalance into highly-volatile markets.

All of these mechanisms reflect plans put in place long before the crisis. Ideally, investors have planned strategically and calmly as portfolio and investment allocations are made, rather than allocating capital based on the emotions of a particular days or weeks disturbances.

Every investor will be in different positions of planning, using set-asides, and rebalancing. The key long-term behavior is not arriving at a single right answer, but having these tools come together in a strategic and internally coherent way with respect to each investors purpose.

Risk models or historical statistics will not provide a definitive answer about how to invest in markets like these. We typically think in terms of probabilities over an investment time period. However, the most common projections of risk probability of loss and value-at-risk pertain only to the end point of the investment, not to the pathway. What is important is to account for multiple time horizons within risk models with such statistics such as first-passage or within-horizon probability of loss and value-at-risk.

Lets take for example a $100m allocation with a value-at-risk of $10m according to a 95% confidence interval. In more common language, this means that the investment will have an ending value of $90m or more in all but five cases out of a hundred. What the statistic does not mean, though, is that the valuation of this investment will remain above $90m throughout the investment horizon in all but five cases out of a hundred. Quite the contrary: it is a statistical truism that the likelihood of a temporary dip in valuation below $90m is much higher. Statistical inference allows us to compute the maximum drawdown that the same investment may experience within its horizon with equal probability. Just for the sake of illustration, the within-horizon value-at-risk of this same investment could be $30m. And, of course, these value-at-risk models do not tell us at what happens in those five cases out of a hundred when the outcome is beyond the band.

Additionally, the benefit of estimating risk across multiple time horizons is not just mathematical. Having interim and final figures provides a frame to everyone involved, both for risk professionals and others, like board directors, so that they expect the pathway to be bumpy even if they are headed to the right destination. Managing expectations to be realistic is an essential long-term behavior: it reduces surprises, which in turn reduces short-term reactions.

The COVID-19 pandemic presents an extremely difficult short-term crisis, but nearly all long-term investors will have an investment horizon beyond this pandemic. Focusing on that horizon will help us use our risk models better; and will ultimately help us perform better too.

Yet, even with these improvements in how we use risk statistics, human behavior underlies financial markets, and no unified set of statistical assumptions encompasses these behaviors, much less the ways that they interact, particularly in times of crisis.

In these times, a long-term investor will understand that the world has moved outside of statistical probability and that human behavior will affect both our response to the pandemic and the risk and return that financial markets produce. Long-term investors recognize that this crisis presents a leadership opportunity to contribute to outcomes that fulfill our organizations purposes.

Sarah K. Williamson and Matthew Leatherman are CEO and Research Director at FCLTGlobal, respectively. FCLTGlobal isa non-profit organization that develops research and tools that encourage long-term investing. Its membership is comprised ofglobalasset owners, asset managers,andcompanies that play a leading role inrebalancingcapital marketsfor sustainable growth.Further research and practical toolkits are available atwww.fcltglobal.org.

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Risk management in a time of crisis - Investment Magazine

Human Behavior

Top 5 Reasons Gamification is Effective in Web Design – SymbianOne

Web design is an area becoming more and more competitive by the day. The things that worked several months ago can easily become history, with a blink of an eye. It is an ever-evolving industry that always seeks effective and confident ways to get the attention of Internet users. New and innovative methods help website owners lead users down their sales funnels in evolving and effective ways.

And while trends change over time, the professionals working in these areas seem to do well at taking notice and taking action before the new developments transform from novelties into necessities. Some of these new trends come from other areas of design and niches, which seem entirely distinct from web design. For example, some specialists explore and even utilize cognitive psychology and neurobiology in website design. And yet there is only one industry today that truly caters to some of the most innate human needs and wants while entertaining them. This industry hit a stunning $120 billion of revenue in 2019. Yes, you guessed it were talking about the video game industry. Though the industry has been through its highs and lows, today it is one of the most prominent and rapidly growing industries in the world.

It should come as no surprise that at some point, web designers decided to incorporate some gaming elements into websites. At first, it was a gamble. But time proved these chances correct the results were quite encouraging. Gamification works, but only if gaming elements are used properly, consider users behavior, goals, and the niche a particular site belongs to. If you have a company website that isnt successfully driving new leads and converting them to customers, then gamifying your sites design might be a helpful solution. But, if you still dont have a website, you might want to consider adding game elements at the very beginning.

If your company isnt a web design company, finding a team of reliable specialists that can take care of your companys site development and launch is critical to the success of your business. Incredible web design agencies exist in every niche imaginable, so finding the one that can create a site that reflects your brand and matches your budget shouldnt be a problem. The better your website addresses the needs and wants of your audience, the higher the chances it will generate new leads, customers, and income. Sit down with your web design agency in San Francisco to discuss the ways to proactively and effectively gamify your future or existing website.

But, before this all happens, you should get at least some idea of how and why gamification works in web design and how it can help you get more leads and, therefore, customers.

When a visitor gets to your website, more often than not, they just want to get from point A to point B. Leading potential clients towards your desired goal is a part of the user journey. According to simple psychology, people dont like to be made or forced to go anywhere. Everyone wants to be the masters of their destiny. This means its important to make users feel like theyre in the driving seat. Always. This is the heart and soul of gamification. Think about it like the website version of a choose your adventure book.

Online courses like Codecademy and Udemy, do this very well they have a wide range of courses on all kinds of topics. Their gamified systems let users have control at any moment on their platforms. They can choose lectures like game levels; they can even click next lecture whenever they want. It might sound simple, but humans get a kick out of making their own choices.

Once again, this is simple psychology. People like to know where they are going. They like to know where they are in the process. Otherwise, users remain in the dark and become increasingly wary.

When players play Mario, World of Warcraft, and Zelda, theres a clear and simple reason why they have a map! Taking this type of mapping system and incorporating it into various aspects of your website can have drastically positive consequences. Even something as simple as a progress bar can work as a map for your site visitors. Whatever it is that allows them to know where they are in the process of what they are doing is a useful tool. Your potential customers always will want to know how far theyve gone and how far theyve got to go. If you can include achievement milestones along the way. This way, youll break up the journey and make it feel more manageable. Once again, this improves user experience.

When you are training a dog, you reward it with treats. The same happens when it behaves well. It keeps behaving well because it gets its rewards. Although humans are far more complex than this, essentially, the same thing happens when you play a game. When you finish a level, you receive a reward a power-up or a new character, for instance. So you keep doing it again and again. This pattern reinforces a habit of behavior.

Gamified sites do the same thing. Facebook is particularly good at doing this. It is fantastic at incorporating subtle gamification. For instance, when you post an image or status, you get rewarded with reactions (likes, wows, etc.). You get a psychological reward from Facebook. So, you repeat your actions. Facebook is the real winner that keeps user engagement and user numbers high. Rewarding users at every stage of their journey reinforces what you need them to do and hopefully keeps your websites traffic high.

Achievement is one of the strongest psychological driving factors in human behavior. Everything humans do; they do to achieve something. Your website visitors are going to try to achieve something. That could be buying a book, getting fit, learning code, or managing money.

If you can make your prospects feel like they have achieved something, they are going to return. Something like simple praise for a completed task helps create a milestone this is an achievement. We all understand real achievements, like getting fit, or learning a skill, take considerable time and effort. Thus, its important that you break the process down and create turn achievement itself into manageable steps and intervals. This keeps people coming back for more.

By nature, humans are competitive. Most people want to push themselves further and harder. By including previous records and personal bests to your site, you might persuade your audience to come back and try to improve. Show people their statistics, and they will try to beat it on almost any occasion.

It can be quite difficult keeping your target audience engaged with your company website. This reality alone should make you seriously consider gamification. Of course, you dont have to turn your website that has all the relevant information about your company, products, services, and other things into a game. But, adding just a tiny pinch of gaming can drastically improve the user experience.

You should connect your marketing team with that of the web design agency youve hired to make sure that all gaming elements reflect the way your brand takes care of your customers. You want to make certain that the site visitors will value your content and will enjoy surfing it when looking for information, deals, and more. Gamification in web design is a quite effective strategy you just always have to make sure youre doing it the right way.

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Top 5 Reasons Gamification is Effective in Web Design - SymbianOne

Human Behavior

Tomorrow is good: A psychologist in every corona crisis management team – Innovation Origins

Over the past decade, technology has often been labeled as disruptive. This is a characterization with a highly technophobic undertone. Personally, I prefer to focus on the opportunities and capabilities that technology has to offer. Especially now since were confronted with a disruption of unprecedented magnitude on a global scale COVID-19 it has become clear that technology is the link that connects it all. At present, technology is virtually the only option where human interconnectivity is concerned. Whereas most people had never heard of Microsoft Teams or Zoom the week before, a week later you saw that Teams and Zoom, in addition to toilet paper, soap and paracetamol, had become the basic necessities of life. So, people need technology in times of actual disruption. People exhibit different behaviors in a crisis and therefore have different needs.

This shift in human behavior in times of crisis is more than just fascinating. Apart from all the horrors that corona entails, it also represents one huge and natural experiment. How will people behave when they suddenly have to socially distance themselves from each other? The conduct that people will engage in during such a huge natural experiment depends largely on how an experiment is framed.

A good example of the correlation between framing and behavior is the experiment which is now well-known as Das Experiment. An experiment that was even filmed because of its startling outcomes. The Stanford Prison Experiment, as the experiment is actually originally called, shows that when you give individuals another framework, in this case the framework of a prisoner or of a guard, they start to show completely different behavior as a result of this framing.

Yet an even better example, and one which merits less ethical controversy, is the experiment conducted by Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman back in the 1970s. In this experiment, Kahneman, together with his good scientist friend Amos Tversky, explores the impact of framing on peoples behavior where making choices is concerned. For the experiment, the following context is presented:

Imagine the US is preparing for the outbreak of an unusual Asian disease, which is likely to kill 600 people. Two separate programs are proposed for combating the disease.

Aside from Bill Gates with his prophetic Ted Talk from 2015, Tversky and Kahneman also belong in the ranks of visionaries. They were already talking around forty years ago about the outbreak of an Asian disease where people would die on other continents. The crux of their experiment lies in the way they described the two programs that were designed to combat the disease. They made two variants of them. In the first variant they described the two programs as follows:

The expected economic outcome is the same for both programs. After all, the expected outcome for program B is that 200 lives will also be saved (1/3 x 600 + 2/3 x 0). The difference is that this expected outcome is achieved without any risk in program A. Whereas a risk factor is built into program B. Given that most people are averse to risk, they tend to choose program A (72 %). The programs were framed differently in the second variant:

These two programs are identical to the previous two. After all, if you save 200 out of 600 people, 400 will automatically die. The results are exactly the same, except that the framing is different. Instead of saving lives, we are now talking about losing lives. When there is something to lose, people suddenly show completely different behavior. They immediately no longer shy away from the risks. In fact, they seek out risks because they hate the idea of losing so much that they do everything in their power to prevent it.

This is pretty much the standard behavior you see in casinos. But you also see that behavior with the outbreak of an Asian disease. In the second variant, the majority (78 %) opt for the more risky program B. So, despite the fact that the choices are actually identical, people tend to behave differently when you frame the options in terms of fatalities rather than lives saved. You can probably imagine how remarkable I think it is that in all the daily statistics about COVID-19, you can find the number of deaths per day and the number of hospitalizations per day, but you cant find the number of recoveries per day anywhere.

This column is a plea for including psychologists and behavioral scientists in every Corona crisis management team. On an ( inter)national level, on a regional level, but also on an organizational level. In his Ted Talk back in 2015, Bill Gates makes a case for a global health system. This entails setting up a specialist team of virologists and biologists which is thoroughly prepared to deal with epidemics. My wish would be that this team also includes psychologists and behavioral scientists. After all, the spread of viruses does not happen all by itself but is the result of human behavior. Therefore, in order to prevent the spread of viruses, we need people with an understanding of human behavior on the frontline.

This column is also an appeal for the spreading of knowledge instead of viruses. The research described here, and a wonderful series of other experiments that together form the Prospect Theory, earned Kahneman the Nobel Prize in Economics. It is my personal conviction that it is precisely at the time of this Corona disruption that everyone should have a look at this research. Only with proper exposure to knowledge can we prevent virus infections.

About this column

In a weekly column, alternately written by Bert Overlack, Mary Fiers,Peter de Kock, Eveline van Zeeland, Hans Helsloot, Lucien Engelen, Tessie Hartjes, Jan Wouters, Katleen Gabriels, and Auke Hoekstra, Innovation Origins tries to find out what the future will look like. These columnists, occasionally supplemented with guest bloggers, are all working in their own way on solutions for the problems of our time. So tomorrow will be good. Read all previous articles in the series here.

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Tomorrow is good: A psychologist in every corona crisis management team - Innovation Origins

Human Behavior

Scripps CEO: Health-Care-Based Trigger Needed Before Reopening Society from COVID-19 Restrictions – GlobeNewswire

SAN DIEGO, April 14, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Scripps Health today released the following open letter from its President and CEO Chris Van Gorder, advocating the need for a health-care-based trigger for reopening society.

I have been in health care now for more than 40 years and have always been proud of my profession and community service but I have to admit, I have never been prouder to be both in health care and law enforcement than I am today.

For health care providers the physicians, nurses, technicians and support teams, the COVID-19 pandemic is their 9-11. Its their Pearl Harbor. For the first responders, this is a new kind of 9-11. But whatever the cause, the first responders are still running in while others run out. This time, though, they are joined by our committed health care providers.

Im also proud of how our hospitals and health care systems have come together as they always do in times of disaster to work together for the good of community. Today in San Diego County, patients are being cared for by a health care community not a group of independent hospitals and health systems. And that health care community is working hand-in-glove with our elected officials and County Public Health.

I want to extend thanks to these officials for listening to health care leaders several weeks ago when we asked to shut down much of San Diego County to flatten the curve. We asked for that so as not to overwhelm the health care system as we have seen elsewhere in Asia, Europe and even parts of the United States. And cautiously speaking it appears we have been successful so far. Those difficult decisions and the support of our community businesses and citizens alike have saved lives and countless heartbreak.

But now, I hear talk of easing those restrictions and Im concerned once again for several reasons.

There are troubling stories coming out of Baja, Mexico that indicate that our neighbors to the south have not been as successful as we have been in flattening the COVID curve, and we know that many people still cross the border every day for economic and personal reasons. Scripps has many employees who live in Mexico and we are concerned for them. This could be an issue for a border community like San Diego.

We know human behavior. Once we start to ease restrictions, people will start to interface more in public and we could very likely see another spike in patients thus making the success to date a moot point and a wasted effort.

And we still do not have the medical supplies necessary to treat patients in a surge, nor do we have a reliable source of resupply for hospital protective equipment for our staff and physicians.

So, I propose a trigger to start easing restrictions and reopening businesses. These will be tough decisions, I realize, and ones I dont have to make.

I learned a long time ago that to win a battle and this is indeed a health care battle your frontline soldiers must have the supplies and equipment needed to protect themselves and win. Battles are often won by logistics not just by the soldiers.

So, I propose that the trigger to relax regulations and reopen society be when we are sure that our health care providers have all of the personal protective gear they need, along with the ventilators, pharmaceuticals and other supplies required to care for our COVID-19 patients and the other emergency patients we see on a daily basis. This means we should make sure that hospitals, skilled nursing facilities, long-term care facilities and home health agencies, as well as all of our first responders, have what they need to do the job.

COVID-19 is now community spread. Its not going away anytime soon. If the powers that be reopen society before we are ready, we will see a rebounding of cases and the health care providers will be on the front-line of that battle as they are today. So lets make sure if we see that spike, that we are ready this time.

Shame on us as a society if we reopen before we can give these heroes that assurance. We can do this and we should do this.

ABOUT SCRIPPS HEALTH

Founded in 1924 by philanthropist Ellen Browning Scripps, Scripps Healthis a nonprofit integrated health care delivery system based in San Diego, Calif. Scripps treats more than 600,000 patients annually through the dedication of 3,000 affiliated physicians and more than 15,000 employees among its five acute-care hospital campuses, home health care services, 28 outpatient centers and clinics, and hundreds of affiliated physician offices throughout the region.

Recognized as a leader in disease and injury prevention, diagnosis and treatment, Scripps is also at the forefront of clinical research. With three highly respected graduate medical education programs, Scripps is a longstanding member of the Association of American Medical Colleges. Scripps has been ranked five times as one of the nations best health care systems by Truven Health Analytics. Its hospitals are ranked No. 1 in San Diego County and among the best in the nation by U.S. News & World Report. Scripps also is recognized by Advisory Board, Fortune and Working Mother magazine as one of the best places in the nation to work. More information can be found at http://www.scripps.org.

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Scripps CEO: Health-Care-Based Trigger Needed Before Reopening Society from COVID-19 Restrictions - GlobeNewswire