Human Behavior

Weekly Column: The greatest threat from the coronavirus are policy mistakes – FXStreet

Review and short-term geocosmics

Employers are already having a hard time rehiring some employees who are now making much more in jobless benefits. Beyond the damage to life and livelihood, the greatest threat from the coronavirus are policy mistakes that prolong the economic pain. Democrats want to use the pandemic as an excuse to put government in charge of much more of the private economy. Now Mr. Trump wants to limit Americas supply of human talent. If they succeed, we will wake up in 2021 having defeated Covid-19 but at the high cost of a diminished economic future. Trumps Immigration Distraction, Wall Street Journal editors, April 22, 2020.

Somebody sees the same outlook for the American (and world) economy in 2021 as we have been warning about, based on the three-passage series of waning squares between Saturn (in Aquarius) and Uranus (in Taurus). This one will be especially critical because it follows the Saturn/Pluto conjunction of January 2020. As detailed in our most recent webinars, the seven most serious U.S. stock market declines of the last 120 years have occurred from highs that took place when hard aspects between Saturn/Pluto and Saturn/Uranus unfolded within one calendar year of each other. That happened in 2000-2001, 2008-2009, and is occurring again in 2020-2021.If correct and we may have seen the culmination of the all-time stock market high for a while in February 2020.

An interviewer asked me last week if this possibility of a further economic and/or stock market decline ahead frightens me. To which I replied, No. First, we have already experienced the greatest shock part of this decline, created by the governments induced recession in order to combat the greatest health threat of our lifetime, the Covid-19 coronavirus. The lethality of this virus has peaked, according to John Berry, author of The Great Influenza on the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic, in an interview with Gerry Baker on Fox Business News, April 17. It also fits with my previously forecasted view that a peak in panic would likely be during the three conjunctions of Mars to Jupiter, Pluto, and Saturn, plus the Jupiter/Pluto conjunction, March 20-April 4. Stock markets around the world collapsed and made an important bottom then. Second, I see this idea of a second wave down in the economy and stock market in 2021-2023 as one of those exceptional lifetime buying opportunities. So, rather than fear, I am approaching this period as an opportunity. It feels much better seeing the future as a rare lifetime buying opportunity than a dire, dreaded time of further losses with no escape and recovery, as if the world will end. Its a cycle, not a termination.

Still, the current market behavior is most interesting, especially if you appreciate symmetry (and what astrologer doesnt?). Many of the worlds stock indices made multi-year and all-time highs around February 20. They then crashed into their lows one month later, around March 20. Then, they started an impressive rally that topped out one month later, around April 20 (actually April 17-20). Our next three-star critical reversal date (CRD) is scheduled for one month later, the weekend of May 15-18. Are we in store for another severe decline into then? Its possible, especially when you consider that the rally into the high of April 17-20 (an MMA two-star CRD zone) was approximately a 50% correction of the moved down from the highs of around to the crisis lows of around the March 20 period. But of course, there are other factors to consider, like market cycles. Many market cycles were due to bottom around March 20 (March 20-31 especially), as outlined in the Forecast 2020 Book and our monthly, weekly, and daily subscription reports prior to that low.

As expected from last weeks column, the U.S. Congress passed another large stimulus program after the Sun/Saturn square of Tuesday, April 21 was completed. That day was also monumental in the field of financial markets because the price of Crude Oil declined to -$40/barrel! Its never been below zero, which means the value of Crude Oil was essentially worthless that day. It wasnt just a long-term cycle low. It was below a price that no one ever imagined. That was the day before the new moon, which was in square aspect to Saturn, and approaching a conjunction to Uranus. It may be a preview of the type of chaos (and opportunity) coming up in 2021 when Saturn makes its exact square to Uranus.

Aside from Crude Oil, most financial markets were relatively quiet last week, following the pattern outlined in last weeks column based on geocosmic conditions. That is, stock markets and precious metals made their weekly lows on Tuesday, then rallied the next two days as the new moon unfolded, then pulled back a bit into early Friday, before rallying again by the close on Friday, as we head into the Sun/Uranus conjunction this weekend, April 26. It is possible we could see a similar up and down pattern next week as Mercury will square Saturn on Tuesday, April 28, followed by its conjunction to Uranus on April 30. And then the unemployment reports will come out Friday, May 1. After that, the retrogrades of Venus, Jupiter and Saturn, May 11-14, are apt to exert their correlation to market reversals in many financial markets.

Short-term geocosmics and longer-term thoughts

No one enjoys perfect safety anytime, anywhere The country will be required to go through a process group by group, community by community, sector by sector as it gradually moves to a safe-enough normal Because the gradual re-opening will start before mass testing is fully available, mistakes are inevitable. The people will accept imperfection, but only if leaders are willing to acknowledge error and change course.William A. Galston, America Again Faces Fear Itself, Wall Street Journal, April 22, 2020.

Social distancing will give way to millions of years of learned human behavior. People wont stay cooped up indefinitely The most persuasive argument for the lockdowns from day one was flattening the curve to avoid collapsing the hospital system. Americans by the millions acceded to that suppression strategy and accomplished its goal. Post-peak coronavirus will be a battle, but it wont be D-Day. The whole country just did coronavirus D-Day and we survived. With or without official permission, people are going to self-release from their coronavirus isolation and get back to business. These are not Trumpian mobs. It is not the rise of anti-science. It is humanity re-establishing social equilibrium. Daniel Henninger, How Well Live with Coronavirus, Wall Street Journal, April 23, 2020.

The purpose of this column is educational. It is to provide understanding of the correlation of cycles in the cosmos to cycles in human activity, and specifically as it pertains to financial matters and other areas of human activity that directly or indirectly affect the cycles in financial markets (i.e. economy, central banking activity, politics). The purpose is not to forecast the outlook for financial markets (that is the purpose of MMA daily, weekly, and monthly subscription reports), although sometimes these correlations will be applied in this column to get across an educational point. With that in mind, lets use this weekends Sun/Uranus conjunction in Taurus as an educational opportunity to understand the correlation between a cosmic cycles and collective behavior and sentiment.

On Sunday, April 26, the Sun and Uranus conjoin in the sign (not constellation) of Taurus, a cosmic event that occurs approximately once a year, plus 3-5 days. The Sun/Uranus conjunction is one of the most powerful geocosmic correlations to the culmination of primary cycles in stock markets as reported from the studies published in The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing, Volume 3: Geocosmic Correlations to Trading Cycles. These studies showed it had an 83% correlation to a primary cycle crest or trough within an orb of 14 trading days. It also showed that it had an 83% correlation to 4% or greater reversals from an isolated low or high that formed within 4 trading days. These are unusually high rates of frequency, which is why the Sun/Uranus conjunction is considered a Level 1 (most consistent and most powerful) geocosmic signature used in our methods of financial market timing.

Our market studies of periods in which Uranus is highlighted (by aspect or station retrograde/direct) illustrates the erratic, unpredictable, and often chaotic behavior that astrologers have long ascribed to this planet. Without any warning, events or announcements are often made that few expect, leading to abrupt turns in the direction of market prices. Sudden rallies or declines oftentimes happen, and they can be very sharp as well as very brief. These are not easy times for position trading, for one day the market can be very bullish, and the next day it can suddenly become very bearish, especially during this 4-day orb surrounding the Sun conjuncts Uranus. We are in that orb now, and we are witnessing markets opening sharply up or down from the prior days close. There seems to be no flow to the markets in the past week, but instead abrupt changes, often overnight before the opening.

Now lets look at the underlying dynamics of this particular conjunction in the sign of Taurus, and how it is corresponding with todays collective reality. The Sun rules the sign of Leo, and Uranus rules its opposite sign of Aquarius. Thus, the Sun and Uranus are by nature like an opposition, which is a principle of conflict but also awareness. Both Leo and Aquarius are fixed signs, which relates to fixed patterns of behavior, which itself is predicated upon fixed or firm beliefs. Their conjunction occurs in Taurus, which is also a fixed sign, making this particular conjunction act like a fixed T-square pattern known to astrologers. Therefore, we see tension arising between expectations and realities that are in a natural conflict. In this case, the conflict can involve security (Taurus), freedom to engage in group gatherings (Uranus), and the drive to do something creative and fun (Sun).

Many in society want businesses and venues for social gatherings to re-open. As Daniel Henninger correctly writes in the quote above, people want to seehumanity re-establishing social equilibrium. People want to make plans to travel, to go out and get together in groups. But they also want to feel safe and secure (Taurus).They are in conflict about what to do because they do not know when they can feel free again (Uranus) and what the costs will be (Taurus) to make a plan, and not have to change it (Uranus). Taurus hates changing plans. The Sun in a hard aspect to Uranus may protest boldly, loudly, and with defiance, even willing to cause disruptions risk of safety to others who wish to go about their normal routines.

However, in terms of how this conflict will impact our future plans and activities, one will need to be flexible and nimble. That is always the anecdote for what ails a fixed sign affliction, which this conjunction of the Sun and Uranus in Taurus surely is. The more fixed one is with their expectations, and the more one is demanding or unwilling/unable to adapt to or initiate changes due to circumstances outside of their control, the more stressful this becomes. It can lead to disruptive behavior that in turns leads to chaos.

Fortunately, this aspect is in effect for one week. We see the protests last week against mandates for social distancing and other restrictions to re-opening businesses and social activities. But it is important to observe this now because it may be a prelude to the year 2021, where a much more prolonged geocosmic signature will play out with similar themes: the Saturn/Uranus square, also in fixed signs (Aquarius and Taurus).

I also bring this up now because in a couple of weeks, Venus (the ruler of Taurus) will go retrograde (May 13-June 25). This period is not likely to be a quick shot back to normal for the economy or for society in general. It is more like two steps forward, one step back, until sometime following late June through the second half of July. With Uranus prominent at the new moon in Taurus, square Saturn (plans) last week, and with Venus about to go retrograde, planning any social activity (like travel, vacations, entertainment) will be challenging because we just wont know. The rollout of the re-opening of the economy is likely to be uneven, with some countries, some states, and some communities opening before or later than others, with unintended and unexpected consequences to follow.

Venus (social activity, relationships, and money) is turning retrograde in Gemini, square Neptune on May 13, which indicates greater than usual confusion, disillusionment, and even disappointment at having to cancel or change plans, much to the chagrin of those who have a majority of natal planets in fixed signs (Taurus, Leo, Scorpio, Aquarius). But it is also Jupiter (travel and another indicator of the need for social activity) and Saturn (boundaries, rules, and limitations) going retrograde. Half the world wants to break loose (Jupiter) and the other half wants to scold them for doing so, even make them pay a consequence a penalty (probably monetary) for violating rules.

As to how this affects financial markets, Venus and Saturn retrograde (May 10-13) are right up there with the Sun/Uranus conjunction as Level One geocosmic signatures correlating with the culmination of primary or half-primary cycles. Venus retrograde is also a period when central banks often make unexpected announcements or policy reversals that create great activity in financial markets. You may remember that Venus last turned retrograde on October 5, 2018, a time when the Fed started raising interest rates and the world stock markets began a mini-panic into late December 2018. This 19-month geocosmic cycle also occurred on March 6, 2009, which was the bottom of the Great Recession stock market decline, the 72-year cycle trough in stocks. Venus was also retrograde when the bottom of the stock market occurred during the Great Depression on July 8, 1932. It is not a 100% correspondence, but its rate of frequency to primary or greater cycles is close to 80% within an orb of 12 trading days.

How should one approach these periods? Looking for opportunities that are sensible, affordable, and of good value, especially in 2021-2022. It is probably not a good idea to invest in a large scale, multi-marketing, worm farm, if you know what I mean. Those who are overly obsessed with fear and rigidity may miss opportunities when they are present. And these are the times when such opportunities arise, and you will likely know it when you see it. But will you have cash and the courage to act?

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Weekly Column: The greatest threat from the coronavirus are policy mistakes - FXStreet

Human Behavior

Why its not so crazy that stocks are rising even though 26 million people are out of work – MarketWatch

Unemployment continues to rise in the U.S. amid a government-mandated shutdown of the economy.

Initial jobless claims for the week came in at 4.4 million Thursday, pushing the total above 26 million and producing an estimated 15% unemployment rate.

The question Im being asked most is: Who is buying this stock market?

Many investors believe the stock market has gone bonkers, saying it has become totally divorced from the reality on Main Street. I agree that the stock market isnt reflecting the economy. There are many reasons for it, and the details will be the subject of a future column.

Lets discuss who is buying this stock market with the help of a chart.

Please click here for annotated chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF DIA, +1.17%, which tracks the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +1.10%.

Note the following:

1. The whole system is set up for investors to buy stocks and keep them in stocks. For details, please see Wall Street wants you to believe everything is peachy.

2. The chart shows that, until last week, about 65% of the rise in the stock market was short-squeeze-related. There are several elements to this increase that all investors should become familiar with. These elements are described in detail in The force thats propelled the stock market rally will exhaust itself this week.

3. Start out with the premise that even if unemployment reaches 20%, then 80% of the people are still employed.

4. A majority of the people who are losing their jobs earn less than average and work in service sectors. They typically do not invest in the stock market, as they generally do not have the resources to invest.

5. People who generally invest in the stock market still have their jobs. They are still contributing to their 401(k)s, which is creating buying.

6. The chart shows a sharp drop that touched the upper band of the mother of support zones and a quick rebound to the bottom band of the resistance zone. History tells us that quick market moves do not change the behavior of investors, money managers and institutions alike.

7. History tells us that it takes prolonged pain to change human behavior. In the coronavirus crisis, the pain has not been prolonged for stock market investors.

8. There is considerable anecdotal evidence that prudent investors have become very cautious, but they represent only a small part of the total.

9. Some prudent investors including money managers often have no choice but to hold their nose and buy stocks in a rising market. Many money managers are expected to beat their benchmark indexes. For them, falling too far behind is career suicide.

10. Many investors feel they have legitimate reasons to buy monetary stimulus, fiscal stimulus, pent-up demand and a potential cure and vaccine for the coronavirus.

11. In general, when a bad jobs report comes out, investors buy because they believe the overhang has been lifted.

12. The benchmark stock market index S&P 500 SPX, +1.39% is concentrated in Microsoft MSFT, +1.82%, Apple AAPL, +2.88%, Amazon AMZN, +0.44% and Facebook FB, +2.66%. Investors believe these stocks are safe, along with semiconductor stocks such as AMD AMD, +0.50%, Intel INTC, +0.37% and Micron Technology MU, +0.89%. Investors have blinders on and refuse to see the risks in these stocks.

13. There is a strike of sellers.

Answers to some of your questions are in my previous writings. You can access them here.

Disclosure: Subscribers to The Arora Report may have positions in the securities mentioned in this article or may take positions at any time. Nigam Arora is an investor, engineer and nuclear physicist by background who has founded two Inc. 500 fastest-growing companies. He is the founder of The Arora Report, which publishes four newsletters. Nigam can be reached at Nigam@TheAroraReport.com.

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Why its not so crazy that stocks are rising even though 26 million people are out of work - MarketWatch

Human Behavior

Aspen trail users urged to exercise caution, respect seasonal closures with wildlife springs to life on local trails – Aspen Daily News

Last fall a mother bear and her two cubs one a distinct light brown with an impish smile turned in for the winter by building a den along the Rio Grande Trail, downvalley of the Cemetery Lane trailhead. Warmer temperatures and longer days have woken the family back up, and theyve started to make trips out of the den to forage the hillside for food.

A sign placed on the Rio Grande Trail earlier this month warned trail users that bears are active in the area, after a bear den was discovered nearby.

Ive been lucky enough to see bears wake up and come out of dens before, and they definitely look like youd expect if you had just mostly been lethargic or sleeping for months, said Pryce Hadley, the ranger supervisor for Pitkin County Open Space and Trails.

Ive seen them crawl out and lay in the mouth of the den for a while. But they are also out and about and ready to eat.

For a time, Hadley placed signs along the trail letting recreationalists know they were in the company of the bears home. While it is a typical time of year for the bears to be emerging, the events of the COVID-19 pandemic have brought an atypical amount of humans to the local trails

Our trails traffic significantly increased as soon as the ski resorts closed; it roughly doubled, Hadley said. Weve not had a shortage of work, and honestly its been more like June, July levels.

Locals, many of whom are now out of work or working from home, have taken to the areas extensive trail system. Typically, the week after the mountains close the local population drops dramatically as the seasonal workforce takes the offseason to travel. But, with travel restrictions in place to tamp down on the spread of the coronavirus worldwide, locals are forced to vacation in Aspen.

Its a good reminder of how many of us locals there are, and obviously we all love being outdoors, Hadley said. I couldnt think of a better place to be under house arrest than the Roaring Fork Valley.

The timing of the pandemic has meant humans are flocking to wilderness areas during a critical period for wildlife.

Its a reminder of how important it is to protect these open spaces. Obviously we are doing that under pretty adverse circumstances right now, but I appreciate and am thankful that so many people in this community hold space and value for the natural environment even when dealing with an unprecedented crisis, Hadley said.

A herd of elk gather near McLain Flats Road. Locals are taking to outdoor trails in record numbers for April during Pitkin Countys stay-at-home order, at a time when wildlife are coming out of winter hibernation, migrating and beginning calving season.

Officials are reminding the public that both on the trails and at home, residents need to reset their habits to be bear aware.

Rachel Beck has been a community response officer for the Aspen Police Department since the fall. She came into the position at the height of a particularly bad year for bruin encounters within the city. APD launched a targeted bear aware campaign, and cited numerous downtown restaurants for improperly securing their trash. Now that the animals have emerged from slumber, the effects of the human behavior still remain.

My first [bear] call of the new season, it went right back to that same dumpster. These bears have a really good memory, and thats really unfortunate for them because they are not learning to use their natural habitat. They are learning that its easier to come in and get trash that is unlocked, Beck said.

The easiest resource for sustenance is human trash, especially in the early spring before bears natural diet of berries, fruits and nuts have bloomed.

Its really sad because they become habitualized. Theyre very smart. When they learn to come in and get trash from residences, they go back and it is a positive reinforcement unfortunately, she said.

And while there is more foot traffic in the wild this spring, the stay-at-home orders that led to the closing of the majority of Aspens restaurants have resulted in a different meal plan for downtown bears.

COVID is adding to it in beneficial ways and not so beneficial ways. Theres less trash in the core because the restaurants are shut down, Beck said. I am optimistic that might help the problem, but it is sad for the local restaurants.

She said the police force wants to issue as few citations as possible on a local population that is already taking a hit, but with several reports already this year of bears getting into trash receptacles, tickets and fines will continue to be issued.

Colorado Parks and Wildlife is going one step further with bear encounters this year. Last week, Kurtis Tesch, the district wildlife manager for the Aspen district told the Pitkin Board of County Commissioners that his team will be more aggressive this season in order to try and limit bear conflicts locally.

Essentially weve come to the consultation that the way weve been managing bear conflict in the past hasnt worked the way we wanted it to, Tesch said.

A bear summit that was set to bring together CPW with local government jurisdictions and law enforcement has been canceled this spring due to COVID-19 concerns. Nevertheless, CPW is moving forward with the new response tactic, which includes faster response times and a required relocation or euthanization of a bear based on its offensives.

We are going to be more proactive rather than reactive, Tesch said.

He said the departments past system of a more passive public information campaign was not resulting in enough compliance to keep the community safe.

We tried to put a lot of onus on the homeowner to manage their trash, lock their windows, lock their doors, stuff like that, Tesch said. There are lot of people being affected that are doing it right. If you are locking up everything correctly but your neighbor is not, there is still potential for your home to be broken in to.

CPW has already put down a bear that broke into homes in Snowmass Village upon emerging from hibernation earlier this month.

A new master plan for regulating mountain lions is also being developed this spring. The public can view the West Slope Mountain Lion Management Plan and add feedback through April 30.

Other area wildlife are also creeping to life and are being spotted in designated seasonal closure areas. Humans and off-leash dogs are not allowed in Sky Mountain Park until May 16 and sections of the Brush Creek and Rio Grande trails are also under seasonal closures as ungulates use the areas for migration and calving.

Pitkin County Open Space and Trails visitor outreach director Paul Holsinger delivers a fresh supply of leashes at the Wilton Jaffee trailhead near Woody Creek on a recent afternoon, where policy was recently changed to require all dogs to be leashed.

Its a really critical time, Hadley said. I know its really tempting to try and get out on the mountain bikes and get out on some to the trails that are subject to seasonal closures, but those closures are in effect for good reason.

Many seasonal closures end May 15, which will allow for more social distancing opportunities for the areas recreationalists, as well as a break for wildlife.

Trails in Sky Mountain Park remain closed until May 15, as the area is critical elk calving habitat the needs to be free from human disturbance at this time.

When we are out there we need to always have situational awareness and be aware of our surrounding whether we are watching out for cyclists or bears or moose. Thats even more important now with COVID-19, Hadley said. We want to have that safe and positive and healthy refuge out there for ourselves, the respite from being trapped indoors, but we want to make sure we are being respectful of peoples space.

And while the pandemic has upended the lives of local residents and thrown off the local economy, the natural world still has its standard spring awakening to go through.

COVID, pandemic, everything is fairly irrelevant [to wildlife]. They are just continuing to exist as they have for tens of thousands of years, and we want to make sure that they are continuing to be able to do that and be healthy in their families as well, Hadley said. Its pretty cool that despite all the chaos, the grinding to halt a lot of industrialized civilization, that the natural world continues apace, and we can see that right in our own backyard.

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Aspen trail users urged to exercise caution, respect seasonal closures with wildlife springs to life on local trails - Aspen Daily News

Human Behavior

Herd immunity won’t come anytime soon for COVID-19 – News@Northeastern

As the strain of closed businesses and physical distancing measures continues to mount, everyone is looking for the silver bullet that will put an end to our COVID-19 worries.

Some have suggested letting the disease spread unchecked, until we reach herd immunity: the point at which a disease cant spread through a population because a large enough percentage is immune, either because theyve recovered from an infection or received a vaccine. A vaccine for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, is still more than a year away, but some individuals, and governments, are hoping that life can return to normal once enough of us have had the disease.

But herd immunity isnt the answer, said Samuel Scarpino, an assistant professor who runs the Emergent Epidemics lab at Northeastern. Not only would such as strategy cost many lives; it also wouldnt work anytime soon.

Samuel Scarpino is an assistant professor in Northeasterns Network Science Institute. Photo by Adam Glanzman/Northeastern University

They believe that if you just let the wave pass through the population that youll have 70 or 80 percent of the population infected and you wont have a subsequent wave, Scarpino told an audience of over 200 researchers, students, and others on Thursday in an online seminar as part of a series presented by the University of Marylands network biology program, in partnership with the University of Vermonts Complex Systems Center.

But those estimates are way too high, Scarpino said. Its going to be somewhere like 5 to 20 percent, and youre going to have multiple waves of infections because youre still going to have a large fraction of the population susceptible.

The difference between these numbers, Scarpino said, originates with some of the simplifications that epidemiological modelers make to estimate how a disease will spread.

Many models depend heavily on the average number of additional people that an infected person will spread the disease to, a value known as the basic reproductive number or R0. SARS-CoV-2 is estimated to have an R0 of between two and three, meaning each infected person will infect between two and three others, on average.

This number doesnt account for human behavior. We dont mix randomly with one anotherI dont draw a number from a hat to determine my dining companions. We have networks of family members, friends, co-workers we see more frequently, and places where were more likely to interact with large numbers of people, such as school or church. And these places and patterns are different depending on where we live.

The social contact networks, the household structures, the demographic patterns, matter immensely when it comes to translating the same reproductive number, the same average number of secondary infections, into an estimate of the total infected population size or percent of the population thats at risk for infection, Scarpino said.

Research has shown that accounting for human behavior lowers the estimated number of infections, Scarpino said. And those predictions seem to do a better job of reflecting reality in areas where large surveys of the infected population have been conducted.

The other problem with the basic reproductive number is that it is an average, Scarpino said. And that average can hide a lot of individual variation, depending on the disease. Both the 1918 flu pandemic and the outbreak of Ebola in West Africa that began in 2013 had an R0 of around two.

However, 1918 influenza caused one of the most devastating pandemics in history, infecting somewhere around 500 million people, which maybe was around a third of the global population, Scarpino said. Ebola was devastating for West Africa, but did not spread around the world and infected close to 30,000 people.

They have essentially the same reproductive number, but wildly different outcomes in terms of the public health consequences of these outbreaks, Scarpino said.

The reproductive number is an average. An R0 of two could mean that each person spreads the disease to exactly two people. Or, it could mean that nine out of 10 people dont spread the disease at all, and a tenth person spreads it to 20 people. Researchers call this tenth person a super-spreader.

The 1918 flu pandemic looked like the former situationeach sick person did, in fact, infect about two other people. The Ebola outbreak looked more like the lattermost people didnt spread the disease very far, and a small percentage of the population were super-spreaders. The SARS outbreak in 2003 also relied on super-spreaders.

Diseases that have more variability in the number of infections each sick person causes are more likely to die out on their own by random chance, and are easier to control with public health interventions, Scarpino said.

One of the biggest pieces of uncertainty, still, for COVID-19 is where it falls in between SARS and Ebola and influenza, Scarpino said. We know its not SARS and Ebola, because we were able to stop those diseases with public health measures. We know its probably not 1918 influenza, because COVID-19 does appear to be more reliant on super-spreading.

If COVID-19 relies on these super-spreading events, then it wont spread evenly through a population, again meaning that there wont be a large enough section of the population infected for herd immunity to work.

It also wont work, Scarpino said, because many people dont want to risk their health or the health of their loved ones. Research has shown that people started staying home before physical distancing restrictions went into place. And where those measures are being lifted, people have been slow to resume old habits.

Wuhan is opening up again, but people are still not dining out, Scarpino said. People arent just going to go out and get infected. At least, not enough of them to generate herd immunity.

For media inquiries, please contact Marirose Sartoretto at m.sartoretto@northeastern.edu or 617-373-5718.

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Herd immunity won't come anytime soon for COVID-19 - News@Northeastern

Human Behavior

[OPINION] Just a little nudge: Debunking the ‘lack of discipline’ narrative – Rappler

Despite the lockdown, many public markets remain jampacked on any given day. Some residents and local barangay officials have been caught gambling. Cockfighting, even. There has even been a boxing match.

These spectacles again bring forward the discussion on discipline or the Filipinos lack of it. Many argue that Pinoys are by nature undisciplined or, according to street lingo, mga pasaway. This narrative was further amplified by Malacaang Spokesperson Harry Roque, who pointed out the lack of discipline as the main reason the Philippines has among the highest number of COVID-19 cases in Asia something that we Filipinos must be ashamed of.

However, because we have acted late in preventing this health crisis, many factors were not considered to ensure the successful implementation of the "enhanced community quarantine" (ECQ). Foremost of these factors is human behavior. The government seems to rely on the traditional view that humans are rational beings and can be managed effectively through fear and use of force thus, the checkpoints manned by men in uniform and the threat of martial law. (READ: [OPINION] 'Pasaway' commuters amid lockdown? These people don't have a choice)

What the government has failed to consider is that human beings act and make decisions differently in a particular situation. In the 1970s, two psychologists proved, once and for all, that humans are not rational creatures. Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky identified cognitive biases that compel humans to systematically make choices that defy clear logic. The ECQ plan was not effective in managing this variable.

Here are the 5 cognitive biases according to Kahneman and Tversky:

Anchoring

This refers to the idea that human beings are easily swayed by irrelevant information presented to them prior to making a decision.

The availability heuristic

The availability heuristic refers to the tendency of the human beings to make judgments based on information that can be easily recalled from their memory.

Representative heuristic

The representative heuristic is a cognitive bias that leads human beings to make judgments based on comparisons to something else in mind.

Regression to the mean

This refers to the tendency of human beings to make biased predictions about the future.

Hindsight bias

Hindsight bias refers to the tendency of human beings to look back at past events, adjust their worldview to accommodate the surprise, and hold the position that I knew it all along.

This irrational tendency of human beings, ascribed to cognitive biases, explains why we act the way we do in any given situation. Placing the perceived lack of discipline of Pinoys in the context of cognitive biases will allow us to think of ways to promote positive behavior and correct decision-making. This leads us to nudging the process of altering peoples behavior in a predictable way without forbidding any option or significantly changing their economic incentives.

Nudge Theory, popularized by Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein in their book Nudge: Improving Decisions about Health, Wealth, and Happiness (2008), is about implementing intervention that is easy and economical, thereby influencing individual decision-making with minimal effort in order to support or achieve behavioral changes.

This theory has attracted the attention of governments in numerous countries and at all levels interested in influencing behaviors at the population level by focusing directly on the physical and social environment, especially with the constraint of limited public resources.

In Singapore, stickers were placed in various forms of public transportation, such as buses and trains, as a design intervention to encourage physical distancing. A friend who is currently in Singapore sent me these photos:

I hope similar measures are already being prepped in our MRTs and LRTs while public transportation is still suspended. Even if the ECQ is lifted, the need for physical distancing is still highly advised by medical experts to avoid a resurgence of COVID-19 pending the development of vaccines. (READ: On-off social distancing may be needed until 2022 Harvard study)

The good news is that the application of nudging is slowly being observed in our setting, by looking at the efforts of some of our local government units in implementing physical distancing. In Manila, for instance, the LGU has painted lines or demarcations on the pavement outside various establishments to encourage residents to observe physical distancing. In Bacoor and Alfonso, Cavite, the LGUs have also painted the pavement with white boxes and circles in public markets to direct the behavior of residents toward practicing physical distancing (see photos grabbed from Proud Caviteno and City Government of Bacoor Facebook pages). These practices are also observable in various establishments, such as in banks, grocery stores, and drug stores.

Quarantine passes and the scheduling of daily activities in various localities around the metropolis are also good examples of nudging. While these efforts seem to fall short of the desired outcome overall, there are other important nudging tips that the government could explore in promoting the desired behaviors among Pinoys, such as the following: (1) setting up of default rules or procedures; (2) simplifying processes and transactions; (3) promoting ease and convenience; 4) emphasizing what most people do; and (5) using graphics or physical setups and showing concrete steps.

Nudging is an exciting idea. It offers opportunities for our policy makers, even concerned citizens, to come up with more innovative yet easy-to-implement ideas to push for behavioral changes among Pinoys in this time of COVID-19, when cooperation is most needed.

The community quarantine poses restrictions that are new to all of us. Our daily routines and physical infrastructures are not compatible with these restrictions. As such, not all of us can be expected to automatically conform with the governments expectations. We are not undisciplined by nature. We simply need a little nudging.

Using the Pinoys lack of discipline narrative is the easiest way to cover up for the shortcomings of the government in its overall response to this COVID-19 crisis from the national down to the local levels, particularly in the context of the ECQ.

It is a paralyzing oversimplification that discourages an engaging discussion on the many possible and creative solutions that could be explored. It is a sorry excuse used by those whose only solution or threat to every grand problem is to implement draconian measures, such as, for example, martial law. Rappler.com

Jose E. Dagala, Jr. is a law student at San Sebastian College Recoletos-College of Law. He is interested in Culture Theory and Behavioral Economics.

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[OPINION] Just a little nudge: Debunking the 'lack of discipline' narrative - Rappler

Human Behavior

What Bob the Drag Queen Is Listening to Right Now – Pitchfork

Bob the Drag Queen is best known as the season-eight winner of RuPauls Drag Race, but soon shell become an HBO fixture. In the networks new docuseries Were Here, Bob and fellow Drag Race stars Eureka OHara and Shangela hit conservative American towns in the hopes of building bridges to acceptance. The queens put on drag shows with natives who seek out the artform as a way to work through aspects of themselves. In the premiere, one of the newly minted drag daughters is a mother who, upon her own daughters coming out, asked her church to pray but has since shed her antiquated worldview. The show is funny and heartwarming, but it also doesnt flinch from looking at the bigotry that pervades the American consciousness.

Bobs music taste similarly hinges on an inquisitiveness about human behavior. In her live shows, she likes to perform to her own music as well as songs by Aretha Franklin, Whitney Houston, Ella Fitzgerald, and Kesha (one of her all-time favorites). I dont wanna say my taste is eclectic because everyone always says, I listen to everything and the truth is I dont listen to everything. I listen to hip-hop and R&B a lot, and every once in a while random artists and genres will creep their way into my earbuds, she says. But I also love really gay music.

Below, Bob shares what shes been jamming to while hunkered down at home in Washington Heights, Manhattan. She may not want to call her taste eclectic but her choices say otherwise.

Bob the Drag Queen: Six years ago, I decided to listen to this album from beginning to end just because I wanted to hear the song The Longest Time. Now I find myself referencing the album to make a lot of different points. On the song Keeping the Faith, he says the good old days werent always good, and tomorrow isnt as bad as it seems, which is a really great way of saying you can look forward. Tell Her About It is about not letting your ego get in the way of having a chance at a great connection with someone, and a reminder that when youre with someone, tell them you love them, tell them theyre great. The best line in that song is, Even though you may not have done anything wrong/Will that be a consolation when shes gone. Are you really gonna stick your own neck out on the line? Is it really worth losing the person you love just because you dont want to let go of your ego? I could do this with almost every song on the album.

This is a great look at what it means to be othered in America from Shea Diamonds perspective as a trans woman. Her voice is just to die for. She does the theme song for Were Here and Im so excited to even have a connection with her. I first heard her song American Pie, which is about deciding youre allowed to take up space and deserve a piece of the pie like everyone else despite being othered, despite being black, despite being trans. I Am Her is a bop that stays forever playing for me.

I just love music that celebrates queerness unabashedly, and Id love Todrick even if I didnt know him. A lot of mainstream queer artists will still change pronouns in their songs so people feel more comfortable. Todrick is like, Im gonna use the pronouns I wanna use, Im gonna get dressed in full drag, and Im gonnapardon the expressionbe faggoty, and let people see how celebrated you can be being an out, queer artist. Having an artist like this really embracing queer culture and being hired to choreograph for Beyonc, or Taylor Swift giving him a producer credit for the You Need to Calm Down video? Thats a big deal.

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What Bob the Drag Queen Is Listening to Right Now - Pitchfork

Human Behavior

The Psychology of the COVID-19 Coup: The Elite, their Victims and those who Resist – Modern Ghana

As the elite coup against humanity continues to gather pace see The Elites COVID-19 Coup Against a Terrified Humanity: Resisting Powerfully it is invaluable to observe the way in which the dysfunctional and violent psychology of the global elite, including those of its members who have a significant public profile such as Bill Gates, is revealed more starkly.

At the same time, it is interesting to observe the vast number of fearfully submissive people who are willing to accept, or even ask for, greater constraints on our rights, freedom and economic security, ostensibly to protect them from a virus. Sadly, too, the fear of these people plays a critical collaborative role in both advancing the elite coup and condemning millions of others to death as the economic consequences of the destruction of the global economy inflicts its devastating impacts on those least able to cope with it.

Clearly complicated by a number of factors, including the locust plagues that have been devastating several countries in Africa, the Middle East and South Asia during early 2020 see 360 Billion Locusts And Growing A Plague Of Biblical Proportions Is Destroying Crops Across The Middle East And Africa but now particularly because of official responses to COVID-19, as World Food Programme (WFP) Executive Director, David Beasley, has recently warned:

If we dont prepare and act now to secure access, to avoid funding shortfalls and disruptions to trade, we could be facing multiple famines of biblical proportions within a short few months... our analysis shows that 300,000 people could starve to death every single day over a three-month period. See WFP chief warns of hunger pandemic as Global Food Crises Report launched.

That is 27,000,000 people, if arithmetic is not your strong point, that will die of starvation, not COVID-19. And this figure, of course, is quite separate from the phenomenal hardship that millions are already experiencing as a result of the economic dislocation which has created s staggering number of newly unemployed people around the world.

In this article I will do three things. I will briefly explain the dysfunctional psychology of the global elite, using Bill Gates as an example, which explains why they seek vastly greater control over our lives at staggering expense to our rights, freedom and economic security. I will briefly explain why so many people are fearfully submissive victims of this coup, unable to perceive the deeper strands of what is taking place. And I will briefly reiterate what those people in a third category, ranging from those skeptical of the fear-mongering in relation to COVID-19 to those already resisting the lockdowns, curfews, martial law and other serious impositions on our lives, can do to ensure that their resistance has strategic impact.

The Violently Dysfunctional Psychology of the Global Elite

While the world is in turmoil, partly in response to the fear-mongering by WHO, governments, the medical industry and the corporate media that has profoundly inflated peoples fear of COVID-19 but also because of the adverse cascading impacts of the long list of ill-advised decisions, particularly those that impact national economies made to supposedly deal with COVID-19, the primary concern of Bill Gates is that we all submit to vaccination and acquire a digital certificate to prove that we have done so. For explanations of Gates unsavory motives in promoting and conducting extensive vaccination, see Gates Globalist Vaccine Agenda: A Win-Win for Pharma and Mandatory Vaccination and Bill Gates and the Depopulation Agenda. Robert F. Kennedy Junior Calls for an Investigation.

While this has led to substantial resistance on social media, including that Gates be arrested for crimes against humanity see Arrest Bill Gates Says every Instagrammer on Gates Account it is, in fact, only the most public initiative by a member of the global elite even though it constitutes a key element of how the global elite intends to capture complete control of our lives to create what Whitney Webb describes as a techno tyranny.

Citing a range of evidence obtained from official but largely ignored organizations, decisions and documents in recent years, Webb thoughtfully describes a frightening view of the techno tyranny that is almost upon us and for which the latest moves are being rapidly implemented under the guise of combating COVID-19. Involving an unsavory alliance of the intelligence community, the Pentagon and Silicon Valley, COVID-19 is being used as cover to remove economic and social obstacles (including so-called legacy systems with which we are all familiar) to implementing the so-called fourth industrial revolution a revolution characterized by discontinuous technological development in areas like artificial intelligence (AI), big data, fifth-generation telecommunications networking (5G), nanotechnology and biotechnology, robotics, the Internet of Things (IoT), and quantum computing to achieve everything from a cashless society and AI-driven technologies (particularly for mass surveillance and law enforcement) to driverless cars and telemedicine.

For a sample of the documentation, see Competing With China on Technology and Innovation, the US National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence, the Chinese Tech Landscape Overview, US Attorney General William Barrs Implementation of National Disruption and Early Engagement Programs to Counter the Threat of Mass Shootings, the American Artificial Intelligence Initiative: Year One Annual Report of the US Office of Science and Technology Policy, and the recent advice by the White House that President Donald J. Trump Announces Great American Economic Revival Industry Groups. Whitney Webb has written two recent articles Meet The Companies Poised To Build The Kushner-Backed Coronavirus Surveillance System and Techno-Tyranny: How The US National Security State Is Using Coronavirus To Fulfill An Orwellian Vision and been interviewed see Security State using coronavirus to implement Orwellian nightmare that thoughtfully describe what is taking place.

In short, it will leave those of us who are still alive and who havent been replaced by robots as little more than digital entities, devoid of rights and freedoms, who are monitored and controlled to serve elite ends. You might still be able to choose what you buy, provided you do it online.

But while you can consider this evidence at your leisure, my own concern in this article is to explain why members of the global elite are so willing to inflict their violence on us, and to exploit us so mercilessly, without even caring. Why does their vision for the world and their effort to create it resemble the works of Aldous Huxley and George Orwell, rather than something that many more of us would consider desirable? Is profit really all that matters? What about people?

In short, the explanation for their behavior is that they are completely insane. But like some other versions of insanity that are also defined as normal essentially because they are so widespread (like over-consumption in industrialized countries) that few think to question whether or not the behavior is actually functional it is fairly straightforward to explain both the origin and outcomes of their insanity.

At birth, every human child has enormous unique potential. However, to fully realize that potential, the child must be nurtured physically, emotionally, intellectually and in other ways so that their unique potential unfolds. This includes caring for them in their unique physical environment while allowing their natural inclination to learn, an evolutionary gift, to guide the manner and nature of their inquiry.

Unfortunately, however, adult humans do not appreciate and value the innate learning capacities of their children so we teach them, in the ways of our choosing (particularly by funneling them all through the one-size-fits-all institution we call school), what we want them to know instead. Because the child naturally resists this, the child is subjected to an extraordinary range of visible and invisible violence to force them to conform to societal norms.

Then, using what I have labeled utterly invisible violence, we ensure that the feelings of fear, sadness, anger and pain (among many others) that this causes are suppressed so that we do not have to deal with the emotional and behavioral consequences of the violence we inflict on the child. This leaves the child with an unconscious legacy of fear, self-hatred and powerlessness that will manifest, depending on the context, throughout the childs life. For a thorough explanation of this, see Why Violence? and Fearless Psychology and Fearful Psychology: Principles and Practice.

One outcome of being terrorized into submissive obedience throughout childhood is that the human individual enters adulthood with no sense of their unique identity but fully comfortable with the social constructed delusional identity they gradually took on during childhood. Having been terrorized into obedient submission to parents, teachers and religious figures, virtually all people readily take on the role of submissive worker/soldier and citizen fulfilling some fairly meaningless role in a society largely devoid of meaning. Understanding no other way and in a last resort to feel some sense of control over their life, they also then terrorize their own children into being submissively obedient.

And people like Bill Gates are not all that different except that the opportunities provided by their wealth and the privilege that goes with it, enable them to inflict their dysfunctional and violent behaviors on a vastly greater number of people in a fruitless endeavor to feel in control. And they can do so without attracting the sanctions, legal and otherwise, that might constrain the behaviors of the rest of us.

So, as documented in the articles about Bill Gates cited above, his vaccination programs have wreaked havoc on adults and children throughout the global south, killing or incapacitating substantial numbers of people. This is unsurprising given the historical role of vaccination in precipitating a great many disorders and deaths, by introducing into the body contaminants such as aluminium and glyphosate. See Sayer Jis 326 page bibliography with a vast number of references to the literature explaining the exceptional range of shocking dangers from vaccination see Vaccination or, if you wish to just read straightforward accounts of the history of vaccine damage and the ongoing dangers, see these articles by Gary G. Kohls MD: A Comprehensive List of Vaccine-Associated Toxic Reactions and Identifying the Vaccinology-Illiterate among Us.

But does Bill Gates care about the staggering harm these vaccinations are causing? Does he care that future vaccinations are intended to be used to grotesquely infringe our rights and freedoms with the insertion of biometric data? See COVID-19: Perfect Cover for Mandatory Biometric ID. What of his love? Compassion? Empathy? Sympathy? Does he have a conscience to call him to account, even if no legal system does? Does he respect people? Does he believe everyone should be given an individual and informed choice about whether or not they are vaccinated?

Tragically, Bill Gates is so psychologically damaged that he is simply devoid of qualities such as these. They were never given the chance to develop by parents who showed him the same lack of love, sympathy, care, respect and consideration. Moreover, because of his fear of being out of control, as he was when endlessly suffering the incredible violence of his parents throughout childhood, he now endlessly seeks control in the highly dysfunctional ways that his unconscious fear projects. That is, by seeking to control us all.

If you want to read more about the psychological dysfunctionality of Bill Gates and other members of the global elite, as well as their agents, and how this always manifests to our detriment, you can do so in articles such as The Global Elite is Insane Revisited, Love Denied: The Psychology of Materialism, Violence and War and Understanding Self-Hatred in World Affairs.

Sadly, however, it is not just members of the global elite who are psychologically dysfunctional. There is a substantial portion of the human population who have suffered a similar fate, even if it manifests very differently. However, while this dysfunctionality might manifest in an extraordinarily wide variety of ways, it almost invariably includes fearful submission to those considered to be in authority.

The Dysfunctional Psychology of Victims

Because each human being is unique, the individual is born with a powerful evolutionary gift: Self-will. This means that the individual has an incredible range of tools, including the capacity to apply sensory perception (sight, sound, touch) to observe what is happening, the emotional capacity to feel what this means (is it satisfying, enjoyable, frightening, infuriating), to think for themself about the significance of it, to compare and contrast it with relevant memories, to gauge it against ones conscience and so on until an integrated sense of how to behave in response is formulated and then acted on.

If a person is doing this then we might describe them as Self-aware. And they are, truly, an individual.

However, because of the experience of childhood terrorization, briefly touched on above, most children are compelled to surrender the essence of these various capacities, and hence their Self-will, by a very young age. In these circumstances, the child becomes a fairly malleable instrument, easily transformed into a victim who is now devoid of the capacity to look deep within themselves to make sound judgments about what is taking place and to behave powerfully in response.

Instead, they simply obey the will of another: parent, teacher, religious figure, employer, political leader. and act more out of habit than consideration. Given the endless violence (usually labeled punishment) that is inflicted to ensure that children are obedient to others, rather than allowed to follow their own self-will, it takes an extraordinary child to survive with even a semblance of the potential with which they were born. As a result, most human behavior lacks consideration, conviction, courage and strategy, and is simply driven compulsively by the predominant fear in each context.

For elaboration of this explanation, see The Disintegrated Mind: The Greatest Threat to Human Survival on Earth and The Psychology of Victimhood: Obama, Cameron, Netanyahu, Clinton, Kissinger.

A primary outcome of this childhood terrorization experience in materialist cultures is that the child learns to suppress their awareness of how they feel by using food and material items to distract themself. By doing this, the child rapidly loses their emerging self-awareness and learns to consume as the substitute for this awareness. Clearly, this has catastrophic consequences for the child, their society and for nature (although it is immensely profitable for elites and their agents whose Self-awareness is non-existent). For a fuller explanation, see Love Denied: The Psychology of Materialism, Violence and War.

In essence, a victim is utterly terrified and powerless. These feelings are unconscious to the victim, which is why they are incapable of intelligently seeking out and personally assessing evidence (such as that in relation to COVID-19 and how it is being used) and they simply submit without protest once told to obey.

An equally important outcome for the victim, is that they have little, if any, capacity to see beyond themselves or their immediate concerns (which might include an activist preoccupation). They are incapable of perceiving and considering the wider ramifications of what is taking place the big picture such as for those millions of starving people referred to by WFP Executive Director David Beasley above. Any sense of a wider self, of human solidarity beyond the most superficial kind, is incomprehensible to them.

Making sure our Resistance to this Coup has Strategic Impact

So this is why a third group in relation to this elite coup is so important: Those individuals who are already resisting the coup or those who will soon choose to do so. Clearly, these people have sufficient sense of Self, the intelligence and emotional capacity (including courage) to consider the evidence in relation to COVID-19 and what lies beneath it, and to draw conclusions at variance with those presented by the elite through its international organizations (such as the World Health Organization), governments and corporate media.

And it is to these people that this final section is particularly addressed.

I have previously explained a nonviolent strategy to resist this elite coup against humanity. See The Elites COVID-19 Coup Against a Terrified Humanity: Resisting Powerfully.

This included identifying its political purpose obviously To defend humanity against a political/military coup conducted by the global elite and setting out a basic list of 26 strategic goals for achieving this purpose. You can read the Strategic goals for defeating a political/military coup conducted by the global elite against humanity by scrolling down the page at Strategic Aims.

Remaining pages on the website fully explain the twelve components of the strategy, as illustrated by the Nonviolent Strategy Wheel, as well as articles and videos explaining all of the vital points of strategy and tactics, such as those to help you understand Nonviolent Action: Why and How it Works and how to prepare, frame and conduct any nonviolent action to minimize the risk of violent repression. See Nonviolent Action: Minimizing the Risk of Violent Repression.

While many of the tactics identified are designed to make it very easy for individuals to be involved, an increasing number of people are already participating in nonviolent actions based on public gatherings to End the Lockdown using social media messaging with that or similar labels. See, for example, Protesting the Lockdowns is Getting Going #endthelockdown.

Therefore, as more people become aware of the coup and the energy to resist it continues to gather pace, it will be worthwhile to choose a locally significant date on which as many people who are willing to do so act to End the Lockdown in your country. Using a locally relevant focus, or perhaps several, for which many people would traditionally be together a cultural or sporting event, a community activity such as working to establish a community garden to increase local self-reliance, a birthday celebration and/or a return to work we can mobilize people to collectively resist the coup that is taking place.

Because the actions taken can be dispersed with large numbers of people responding in a vast number of locations, it will be impossible for police and military forces to inflict violent repression against everyone, particularly if local organizers have implemented the points in Nonviolent Action: Minimizing the Risk of Violent Repression.

Equally importantly to any of the points above, particularly given the pressing threat of human extinction see Human Extinction Now Imminent and Inevitable? A Report on the State of Planet Earth but also because becoming more self-reliant is vital to our ongoing capacity to resist elite encroachments on our rights, freedom and economic security, consider joining those participating in The Flame Tree Project to Save Life on Earth. This project also explains how to take full advantage of non-monetary forms of community where goods and services are exchanged directly, without money as a medium of exchange. Money only has value in certain types of economy and these types of economy must be superseded if humans are to survive.

Moreover, given the enormous pressure on children at the moment, as their lives are upended, it would be useful to spend time listening to them. Of course, if you know an adult who is having trouble coping, it will help them enormously as well if you listen while giving them the opportunity to talk about, and focus on feeling, their own emotional reactions to what is taking place. See Nisteling: The Art of Deep Listening. If you do not have anyone who can listen to you, try Putting Feelings First.

In addition, because the foundation of this entire elite-controlled world, and the coup it is now implementing, is the submissively obedient individual, the world can only be rebuilt as we might like it if we stop terrorizing children into being submissive. So I would start by parenting and educating children so that they become powerful. See My Promise to Children and Do We Want School or Education?

Finally, as touched on above, apart from the ongoing elite coup the Earth is under siege from our assaults on a vast range of fronts. See Human Extinction Now Imminent and Inevitable? A Report on the State of Planet Earth. So if we are serious about tackling this crisis too, we must be willing to consider committing to:

The Earth Pledge

Out of love for the Earth and all of its creatures, and my respect for their needs, from this day onwards I pledge that:

Conclusion

Given that any serious investigation of the circumstances underlying the so-called COVID-19 pandemic reveals that the entire global episode has been contrived to further an unsavory elite end, at staggering cost to humans everywhere, it is imperative that those who are capable of perceiving this reality also take action to bring this ongoing coup to an early end.

The longer it takes to muster a full response to defeat this coup, the more damage to our rights, freedoms, economic security, opportunities, democratic governance, the global economy and the environment will have been inflicted, making the struggle to restore them vastly more difficult.

More importantly, if human solidarity means anything to you, the lives of millions of people (in the global south) are at stake and the economic security (through lost employment) of millions more.

And these lives, if lost or marginalized, while suiting some elite depopulation agenda, will be a stark but ugly reminder that COVID-19 was never about a virus but about our fear.

Biodata: Robert J. Burrowes has a lifetime commitment to understanding and ending human violence. He has done extensive research since 1966 in an effort to understand why human beings are violent and has been a nonviolent activist since 1981. He is the author of Why Violence? His email address is [emailprotected] and his website is here.

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The Psychology of the COVID-19 Coup: The Elite, their Victims and those who Resist - Modern Ghana

Human Behavior

New COVID-19 modeling: Social distancing is working in MN but only if we keep it up – Minnesota Public Radio News

A new data analysis of the coronavirus outbreak nationwide suggests that Minnesotas social distancing efforts might be paying off in its response to COVID-19 but it also implies that even bigger outbreaks might lie ahead if those social distancing practices were to end.

The new model of the outbreak was developed by researchers at the University of Texas. Its one of many attempts by academics and government officials to use computer models to predict the course of COVID-19. Minnesota has its own model that state officials have consulted in their response to the pandemic. Because scientists still have a limited understanding of the new disease, each model uses different assumptions and different approaches in its predictions.

The work of the University of Texas COVID-19 Modeling Consortium is based on the correlation researchers observed between data that points to social distancing and a states number of COVID-19 deaths a few weeks later.

In other words, states where cellphone data showed people leaving their homes more often tended to have more COVID-19 deaths a few weeks later than states where that cellphone data shows people went out less. The time lag took into account their understanding that a person is most at risk of death a little more than three weeks after being infected with the virus.

As of April 18, Minnesotans were about 20 percentage points more likely to stay home than they were before the outbreak, according to the aggregated cellphone location data published by SafeGraph the University of Texas researchers used to estimate social distancing. Thats the 15th highest increase in stay-at-home behavior in the country and higher than all of Minnesotas neighbors.

Based on the connection they made between Minnesotans cellphone movement and social distancing, as well as trends they observed in other states, the researchers estimate a 93 percent chance that Minnesotas COVID-19 deaths will begin to decline in the next two weeks and a 70 percent chance that will happen within the next week.

The University of Texas' COVID-19 data model predictions, as of April 18.

David H. Montgomery | MPR News

Those predictions depend on the publics continued adherence to social distancing guidelines.

Theyre based on an assumption that Minnesota continues to practice the same degree of social distancing over the next few weeks even if deaths decline that it has to this point.

If social distancing restrictions are eased or even if they're not eased, if people en masse decide that they're not going to abide by these guidelines then certainly the projections of our model are out the window, said James Scott, a professor of statistics and data science at the University of Texas at Austin, and a member of the team who built the model.

Minnesotas stay-at-home order is scheduled to expire in just under two weeks on May 4. Gov. Tim Walz has not yet announced what will happen when the order expires.

The Texas model makes its predictions three weeks out through May 12, as of Thursday so if Minnesotas stay-at-home order is relaxed in May, the model would detect that decreased social distancing and likely predict more deaths two to three weeks down the road than it currently does.

Still, so far Scott said Minnesota has been ahead of the curve by employing social distancing guidelines and then rules relatively early in its COVID-19 outbreak.

Texas and Minnesota are both examples of states that seemed to distance early relative when their outbreaks began, Scott said. All the pain that they've endured in terms of staying apart, not seeing their friends ... has undeniably saved lives, because they clearly got out ahead of things, compared to how New York and New Jersey were.

The University of Texas COVID-19 model is completely different from the model built by the University of Minnesota and Minnesota Department of Health so different that theyre not really comparable.

They operate under two different assumptions about social distancing: The Texas model projects deaths two to three weeks out, on the assumption that social distancing will stay the same in that time period. The Minnesota model projects the outbreak into 2021 and assumes social distancing will relax at some point this spring or summer.

Given that, the Minnesota model forecasts the real peak of the outbreak to come this summer, once people begin interacting more and, presumably, spreading the disease more quickly. Thats not a time frame or scenario that the Texas model even attempts to simulate.

Simulations from two different scenarios in Minnesota's COVID-19 model, run on April 8.

David H. Montgomery | MPR News

Beyond those different assumptions, the models use completely different methods of assessment. Minnesotas model is an epidemiological model based on estimates about the nature of COVID-19. The Texas model uses a curve-fitting approach that tries to detect a trend based on observed data.

The two approaches each have their strengths and weaknesses and its not yet clear which approach will do a better job at predicting the course of COVID-19 in the state.

Minnesotas epidemiological model, called an SEIR model because it uses details about the time periods in which people with a disease are Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious and Recovered, is based on decades of research into infectious diseases. But because COVID-19 is so new, many of the inputs assumptions about the behavior of a disease to an SEIR model are still unknown, leaving Minnesotas model to rely on simulating hundreds of different estimates.

We feel good about the model and the structure. It aligns well with the disease as we understand it right now, Minnesotas state health economist Stefan Gildemeister said earlier this month.

Curve-fitting models like the Texas model dont take into account how diseases like COVID-19 function. Instead, it relies on data that reflects human behavior which is easier to observe.

Scott, the Texas researcher, said curve-fitting is a good fit in this situation, given the uncertainty about inputs for SEIR models. But he acknowledged that no one knows which approach will prove most useful.

If you have two models, both of which seem to be describing the data equally well and make very different forecasts about the future, that's a very difficult place to be in, Scott said.

There are more than two COVID-19 models out there. Many states have developed their own models, with varying degrees of transparency, as have a number of academics.

Prominently cited modeling includes that of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, the White House coronavirus task force, and Imperial College in London. These models use different methods, different inputs, different time frames, and predict deaths from the pandemic an order of magnitude apart.

All of them, including Minnesotas model, only predict harm caused by the disease itself, and not social or economic strain that arises as it spreads.

Walz and other policymakers have been relying primarily on Minnesotas model to guide their understanding of the diseases risk here, though they have acknowledged paying some attention to other models like the University of Washingtons.

Both the Texas and Minnesota models are being continually updated. Neither one yet accounts well for clusters of cases in a single place, such as a nursing home or a meatpacking plant like the JBS plant in Worthington thats connected to dozens of cases in just the past few days.

Scott said his team in Texas is trying to better take into account the impacts of such outbreaks, and also to look at data on a more precise geographic level than entire states. A new version of Minnesotas model is also being developed and may be released later this month.

Health officials for weeks have been increasingly raising the alarm over the spread of the novel coronavirus in the United States. The disease is transmitted through respiratory droplets, coughs and sneezes, similar to the way the flu can spread.

Government and medical leaders are urging people to wash their hands frequently and well, refrain from touching their faces, cover their coughs, disinfect surfaces and avoid large crowds, all in an effort to curb the virus rapid spread.

The state of Minnesota has temporarily closed schools, while administrators work to determine next steps, and is requiring a temporary closure of all in-person dining at restaurants, bars and coffee shops, as well as theaters, gyms, yoga studios and other spaces in which people congregate in close proximity.

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New COVID-19 modeling: Social distancing is working in MN but only if we keep it up - Minnesota Public Radio News

Human Behavior

Q&A: Has COVID-19 Shifted the Momentum of Climate Change? – University of Denver Newsroom

Airplane runways have quieted, rush hour traffic flows smoothly, and the smog has departed, revealing sunny, blue skies. COVID-19 has drastically altered life on a global scale, putting a halt or near halt to many of our most harmful practices. Could this temporary period of reckoning be enough to seriously combat climate change? Have humans changed their behavior for the long haul?

The DU Newsroom asked Brian ONeill, professor in the Josef Korbel School of International Studies and director of research for the Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, to answer our burning climate change questions by email.

A number of reports from around the world indicate that shelter-in-place orders could have a positive effect on climate change. What evidence have you found most compelling?

We are already beginning to measure reductions in emissions of carbon dioxide, the most important greenhouse gas, due to the economic disruption caused by the pandemic. But that hasnt impacted the climate itself, and we shouldnt expect it to, unless the reduction in emissions is sustained for many years into the future. Sustained reductions in emissions eventually slow the growth of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, and in turn that eventually slows the increase in temperatures. The climate system responds very slowly to changes in emissions.

Also, any positive effects on emissions are really occurring for the wrong reasons. We dont want emissions to fall because the economy is shrinking and people lose jobs and have to stay home. We want them to fall because the world is moving off of fossil fuels as its primary source of energy. Without that happening, the current emissions effects are not helpful to the climate issue.

Which human behavioral changes undertaken in response to COVID-19 have had the most significant impact on the state of climate change?

Changes in transportation have had the largest effect on emissions and again the effect is on emissions that cause climate change, but not on the climate itself, which responds much more slowly. As you can imagine, use of electricity or natural gas to heat and light homes and run appliances has not been much affected. Some of that activity has switched from occurring in a workplace to occurring in homes, but the overall change has not been large. But with many people and businesses driving less, the reduction in carbon dioxide emissions from transportation has been significant.

Are any of these changes significant enough to change the trajectory of the threat of climate change?

No. The changes could be substantial for emissions this year, compared to historical trends. Rather than global emissions growing by about 1% per year, which has been the recent trend, they might fall by several percent. But climate change is caused by the accumulated impact of emissions over decades, so to really slow warming trends, emissions have to fall for a long time. For example, to meet the international goal of limiting warming to 2 degrees Celsius, global emissions have to fall by several percent per year, every year, for two or three decades.

International responses to COVID-19 have been varied. Are there places around the world that have experienced a more dramatic/less dramatic environmental impact as a result?

Its hard to tell yet how different the effects on carbon emissions have been from place to place. Well need to wait for more data to come in to know that. But we do see a different impact on the environment that is striking already: reductions in local air pollution. Unlike climate change effects, effects on air quality occur very quickly. Local air pollutants often come from the same sources as carbon emissions, like driving cars and trucks or producing electricity. So the decrease in the [number of] vehicles on the road has improved air quality fairly dramatically in many cities around the world, including places in the U.S. like Los Angeles, but also in large urban areas like Delhi and Beijing, and many other places.

But here again, improved air quality is happening for the wrong reasons. We havent suddenly produced cleaner burning car engines or less polluting power plants. We have crashed the economy, which is not a solution to any environmental problem.

Could these positive impacts have a lasting effect on the health of our climate, or are they likely to be reversed as soon as some of these orders are lifted?

This is an important question, and it is too soon to tell what the long-term effects will be. In the short term, if, as we all hope, economies recover quickly from this disruption, carbon emissions will bounce back, too. Thats because this crisis is not leading to a change in the way energy is produced; it is just shrinking the economy. So within a year or two we will most likely be largely back on the trend of increasing emissions that existed before the pandemic occurred. Its possible that emissions may grow even faster, if countries prioritize economic growth over environmental protection.

In the longer term, its possible that the event will change attitudes about the importance of making society more resilient to disruptions of all kinds, including from climate change. That could lead to support for stronger efforts to shift energy production away from fossil fuels and begin reducing emissions for the right reasons, not the wrong ones, as is happening now during the pandemic.

As someone whose research looks to the future of climate change, do you think COVID-19 is likely to change the projections and assumptions researchers have been working with?

I would say yes, no and maybe, depending on how far into the future you want to look. The pandemic will almost certainly change the outlook for carbon emissions for the next few years, as economies suffer, and hopefully recover, from the immediate effects of the disruption. It may change the outlook for the next decade or so, as the effects of that recovery become clearer, and it could lead to either more or less growth in emissions than originally projected. Researchers studying, for example, how likely countries are to meet their emissions reductions goals in 2030 will have to update their analyses to take the effects of the pandemic into account. Changes in the climate system itself will not be noticeably affected over that time period, since climate responds to the accumulation of emissions over many years, not year-to-year changes in emissions.

Many researchers in this field look much farther out, decades into the future over the course of this century. My initial sense is that projections over that time scale are not likely to be substantially affected by this event. That could change, however, as we learn more over time about how big the effects of the pandemic and responses to it actually are, how long they last, and most important, whether they lead to behavioral or political changes that could have long-lasting effects.

What does the international response to COVID-19 teach us about combating climate change, surely another pressing threat to humanity?

The two issues are very different, not least because of the timescale. There are no projected impacts of climate change that are anticipated to be so sudden and at the same time so widespread. But from a broader perspective, it does demonstrate that the global community can make very large changes very quickly, given a strong enough motivation. Some of the discussions around the climate change issue have been about the feasibility of acting fast enough to meet the international goal of limiting warming to 2 degrees. So we do see now that fast action is possible. But even in this case the analogy is not all that strong, since the climate action has to be sustained over several decades.

Do you suspect some of the positive behavioral changes discussed earlier may be maintained after this pandemic?

I really dont know how this event is going to affect behavior, either of individuals or of political institutions. We are already beginning to see very different responses across different groups of people, and we are likely to see even more as the pandemic goes on. How that will play out over time is anyones guess.

Has this pandemic had any noticeable effect on how people see the relationship between climate and human health?

Some people have argued that the event could, or should, make us more aware of the connection between the environment and health, and therefore of climate and health. That might happen, but I am not sure that connection will be made in many peoples minds. Climate does not appear to be a key factor in causing the pandemic, and while climate change is projected to have important effects on health, substantially increasing the risks of pandemics is not one of them.

Read more here:
Q&A: Has COVID-19 Shifted the Momentum of Climate Change? - University of Denver Newsroom

Immunology

Infection Rate May Indicate a Future Diagnosis of Cancer – Cancer Network

In an article published inCancer Immunology Research, researchers suggested that immune suppression and increased infection could occur during the precancerous period.1

However, cancer can occur through a lifespan, therefore the authors indicated that further research is necessary to clarify these precancer trends.

"Cancer can develop in an inflammatory environment caused by infections, immunity disruption, exposure to chemical carcinogens, or chronic or genetic conditions,"co-author of the study Shinako Inaida, PhD, a visiting researcher at the Graduate School of Medicine at Kyoto University in Japan, said in a press release.2"An individual's immunity is thought to be a factor in the development of cancer, but additional research is needed to understand the relationship among precancerous immunity, infections, and cancer development.

In this 7-year case-control study of people 30 years of age, researchers looked to determine the prevalence of influenza, gastroenteritis, hepatitis, and pneumonia infections to indirectly assess whether infections correlated to the formation of malignant cancer. Using data extracted from a large medical claims database of a Japanese social health insurance system, researchers identified 2,354 people with their first cancer diagnosis occurring in the seventh year of the study for the case group and 48,395 people with no cancer diagnosis by the seventh year of the study for the control group.

The most common cancers diagnosed in the case group were digestive and gastrointestinal, head and neck, and stomach cancers. Other cancer types diagnosed in the case group included cancers within the following categories:

The yearly prevalence rates of influenza, gastroenteritis, hepatitis, and pneumonia infections were found to increase throughout the study period, with the case group experiencing higher rates of infection compared to the control group. Moreover, age-adjusted odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) in cases 1 year before cancer detection were significantly higher. During this year, the infection prevalence rates for the case group were higher than the control group by 18% for influenza (OR, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.14-1.46), 46.1% for gastroenteritis (OR. 1.60; 95% CI, 1.41-1.82), 232.1% for hepatitis (OR, 3.38; 95% CI, 2.12-5.37), and 135.9% for pneumonia (OR, 2.36; 95% CI, 1.79-3.13).

In patients with influenza infections, significant ORs were found only in the second and sixth years before cancer diagnosis. Further, for each cancer site, an increased rate of infection prior to cancer diagnosis was observed.

The researchers also found that certain infections appeared to have a greater correlation with specific cancer types. For example, the odds of influenza infection just before cancer detection were highest for those who developed male germ cell cancers. Additionally, the odds of pneumonia were found to be highest in those who later developed stomach cancer and the odds of hepatitis infection were highest in those who developed hematologic, blood, bone, or bone marrow cancers.

"Interestingly, we found that infection afflicting a specific organ did not necessarily correlate with increased risk of cancer in the same organ," Inaida explained.

Notably, the researchers only extracted the first cancer diagnosis for each patient and given that the observation period was limited to 8 years, further cancer diagnoses may have been missed. The data also did not include information such as the grade or stage of tumors, which may have been important to estimating each precancerous period.

Another limitation highlighted by the researchers was that patients with infection who did not visit the hospital may have been overlooked. Moreover, influenza vaccination status may prevent infection, although a patient's influenza vaccination record was not available in for this dataset.

Patients who feel unwell, potentially because of cancerous status, tend to see doctors more often, the authors wrote. Although our study considered four major infections, analysis of other infections and the timing of infection before malignant cancer detection, which can potentially be a factor for later cancer development, remains to be studied.

References:

1. Inaida S, Matsuno S. Previous Infection Positively Correlates to the Tumor Incidence Rate of Patients with Cancer.Cancer Immunology Research.doi:10.1158/2326-6066.CIR-19.0510.

2. Increased rate of infections may indicate a future cancer diagnosis [news release]. American Association for Cancer Research. Published April 17, 2020. eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-04/aafc-iro041520.php. Accessed April 17, 2020.

The rest is here:
Infection Rate May Indicate a Future Diagnosis of Cancer - Cancer Network