The average number of COVID-19 cases identified daily in Colorado has fallen by nearly a third since late April, a sign that the state is heading "in a positive direction," one expert said. But another warned that continued high levels of hospital admissions means that the fourth pandemic wave is not yet over.

On April 25, Colorado was averaging 1,731 new COVID-19 cases each day, the most since Jan. 19. But the numbers have fallen nearly every day since then, and the state has averaged 1,182 new cases over the past week. What's more, the average positivity rate, which had topped 6% for the first time since Jan. 14, has also dropped consistently and is now back below 5%.

"Colorado is heading in a positive direction again, and vaccination coverage is almost certainly playing a key role in this decline," said Glen Mays, chair of the Colorado School of Public Health's department of health systems.

"The weather and human behavior are also trending toward safer situations in terms of well-ventilated settings and interactions."

While the numbers are a heartening sign, there are other, more worrying metrics. Elizabeth Carlton, also of the school of public health, said she most closely tracked hospitalizations and noted that Colorado was averaging roughly 100 new COVID-19 hospital admissions each day since April 28.

As of Monday afternoon, there were 653 Coloradans hospitalized with COVID, plus another 50 suspected to have the disease. Though that's lower than two days previously, it remains higher than nearly any other point since late January.

"What does that mean?" Carlton said in an email. "That the number of people developing severe COVID-19 in Colorado doesnt appear to be declining right now."

Dr. Jon Samet, the dean of the public health school, echoed her concern about hospitalizations.

"Case numbers are dropping, but hospitalizations are stable at a plateau in the mid-600s," he wrote in an email to The Gazette on Monday. "Hopefully, since case numbers are a leading indicator, we will see a drop in hospitalizations over the next few weeks."

Carlton and Mays said that vaccinations do appear to be helping prevent infections, as well as hospitalizations and deaths among the state's oldest and most vulnerable residents. Carlton said that without the vaccine, the current situation "would be far worse."

Carlton and other public health experts released a modeling report last week, which looked at data in late April. In it, researchers echoed the clear benefits the vaccine has had on Coloradans most at risk for severe disease and death.

"The benefits of vaccination are clear for older Coloradans," they wrote. "We estimate that approximately 41% of Coloradans overall and >80% of those over age 65 are currently immune due to vaccination and/or prior infection."

But the report also estimated that roughly 1 in 86 Coloradans were infectious then, "much higher than mid-March." The virus was more prevalent in Colorado than it had been since December, as of the report's data analysis in late April.

Researchers wrote that infection control meaning measures taken to blunt the spread, like masking and social distancing had fallen to 56%, which is also lower than it had been in weeks. Mobility, meaning the amount of time people spent away from home, "is reaching its highest levels since the start of the pandemic."

Given the low infection control, the researchers warned that, should that trend continue, "the epidemic curve will not decline to previous lower levels until after August."

Carlton said that though she hoped for a decline in severe COVID cases, "there are ways we could see further increase in severe COVID-19 and infections." She said the state is at a "critical point in terms of vaccinations," particularly with the news Monday that federal regulators cleared the way for Americans between the ages of 12 and 15 to be vaccinated. Carlton called that "a game changer."

"The bad news is that vaccine demand in adults has slowed," she added. "If Colorado can achieve high levels of vaccination across all eligible age groups, then we should see hospitalizations and infections decline in the weeks ahead. If those that are currently unvaccinated remain unvaccinated, a return to pre-pandemic policies and behaviors presents the risk of further increase in infections, hospitalizations and deaths."

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Some COVID metrics improve in Colorado, but experts concerned about high rate of hospital admissions - coloradopolitics.com