Kids stuck at home. Parents out of work. The guy at the register ringing up panicked shoppers' groceries. Even though ithasjust begun, the question, from everyone, is the same:When will this coronavirus crisisbe over?

The answer depends on whomyou ask.

With the number of cases growing exponentially every day,some experts believe we will bebattling the coronavirus, with some type of social distancing in place, for the next 12to 18 months, the length of time it will take to develop and test a vaccine.

Another expert told the New York Times we should begin to feel some relief from all this by May.

Anda Wayne State University infectious disease specialistsaid that unless we go on a strictlyenforced lockdown, it could be another four or five months before the number of infections peaks.

Uncomfortable notions all, but the truth is perhaps even more uncomfortable. The truth is we don't know for surewhen this coronavirussituation will be over. "We're really flying by the seat of our pants,"said Dr. Howard Markel, director for the Center for the History of Medicine at the University of Michigan and a consultant on pandemic preparedness for the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

There are reasons for the uncertainty lack of research andunderstanding about the novel coronavirus that causes the COVID-19 illness, lack of testing for the illness and the incredible unpredictability of human behavior.

After all, thiscoronavirus which has killed thousands of people around the globe and infected hundreds of thousands of others is a newcomer to the roster of human viruses. "We've never had a coronavirus pandemic," said Tara Smith,an infectious disease specialist atKent State University in Kent, Ohio."We're kind of in uncharted territory. So we dont really know where this is going to go or what's going to happen."

Said Markel: "Its novelty is also its scariness."

With the coronavirus has come a tornado of information,some of it accurate, some of it flat-out wrong (gargling with vinegar won't prevent you from getting sick), all of it new and disorienting at a time when we just want to stop spinning, stand firmly on the groundand go back to the lives we were living just a fewweeks ago.

So far, thosewho study infectious diseasesknowthe coronavirus spreads through respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs or sneezes. Everyone is susceptible.It's highly contagious and can be spread even by those who are asymptomatic. For a while, there was some hope that the virus might become less virulent or even burn itself out in warmer weather, similar to the way the influenza virus calms in the summer. But"I'm not pinning my hopes on that," Smith said. Australia is in the middle of its warm-weather months and hashundreds of confirmed COVID-19 cases.

More: Michigan nurses say they don't have masks, gear to keep them safe from coronavirus at work

More: Oakland County orders malls, playgrounds closed as confirmed coronavirus case count rises

Researchers know the coronavirus makes some people extremely ill. People older than 65 are considered high-risk, andthey account for 80% of the COVID-19 deaths, according to the CDC. Those with pre-existing health conditionssuch as diabetes,hypertension or a depressed immune systemalso face an elevated level of risk which doesn't bode well for metro Detroiters.

"Our population is very vulnerable, including people who socially, fiscally underserved (and there's) a lot of diabetes,hypertension," said Dr. Teena Chopra, an infectious disease specialist at Wayne State University.

Younger adults wereinitially thought to be at lower risk for becoming profoundly ill. But then the CDCreleased a new report last weekshowing that, so far, people between the ages of 20 and 54account for 40% of the coronavirus patients sick enough hospitalized. And50%of the patients admitted to intensive-care unitshave been under age 65.

"I'm reasonably young," saidAubree Gordon, an associate professor atthe University of Michigan's School of Public Health who is 42, and studies the transmission of viruses. "I don't have any risk factors. ... I have a healthy fear of getting coronavirus. ... This virus is definitely, in my experience, in my opinion, the worst one that weve seen in the United States during my lifetime at least."

Added Smith:Right now, I thinkwe are looking at something potentially, maybe not on the scale of (the influenza pandemic of) 1918" which killed 50 million people worldwide, including 675,000 in the United States, "but maybe one level removed from that or something.Weve seen in Italy how bad it can get, and they're still also not at the end of(their crisis) by far."

Still, experts believe that 80% of the people who contract the virus experience mild to moderate symptoms. That's good news, of course, but it also prevents us from getting a clear picture ofthe scope of the virus. Because there aren't enough tests available in the United States, doctors have to prioritize who gets tested. And inmost cases, people with mild symptoms aren't being tested. As a result,there's no way of knowing how many people are actually infected. And that makes it difficult to figure out how much of the state, or the country, the virus has engulfed.

It also makes it difficult to figure out the true fatality rate of the virus, which the World Health Organizations puts at 3.4%. Comparing the number of people who die as a result of the coronavirus tothe number of people who test positive is different from comparing the number of people who die to the true number of peoplewho have the virus.

What we're seeing is that different countries have different fatality rates,'' said Smith of Kent State. "South Korea is testing everybody. So they're not only picking up the most serious cases ... theyre also picking up those mild cases that we really arent testing for here. So their case fatality rate looks a lot lower because theyre doing much more broad testing. As you test more of those mild cases, it looks like the fatality rate is going down.

"I know people are working extremely hard to try to get the tests set up so we'll have more information on the size of the outbreak soon,'' Gordon said."With that information,the government will have kind of what they need in hand to determine if the current control measures (such as social distancing) will continue or if they should get stricter. "

Even then, figuring out just how restrictive control measures should be and when they might be lifted is tricky. People don't like being limitedand cabin fever can become an issue. But viruses often strike in waves. The influenza pandemic of 1918stretched over two years, attacking and hiding, attacking and hiding. So it's possible we will loosen restrictions on movement, only to have the virus in its original form or as a mutation return with a vengeance.

Dr. Teena Chopra, medical director of infection prevention and hospital epidemiology at DMC Harper University Hospital.(Photo: Detroit Medical Center)

"For the next 12 months, we'll probably have some sort of restriction in place; that would be my guess," said Gordon, the U-M researcher."But the strictness of those restrictions will vary depending on the level of infection in the community."

If you ask me, honestly, I think there should be a total lockdown," said Chopra, who noted that the number of infections keeps rising and people in Michigan are dying. "We are not heading in the right direction. Several cities have done it, and we are not far behind. It is very important to be very proactive."

Said Smith:I know some of my extrovert friends are all ready to end this, so I don't knowwhat's going to be the best to find balance between protecting people from the virus but also keeping the economy going and keeping people's mental health stable."

So what's going to happen to us?

It's possible the virus could infect so many of us that we develop an immunity to it, a phenomenon scientists call herd immunity.But for that to happen, millions of people 60-70% of the population would need to become infected, which means millions of people would die.

It's possible a treatment may be on the way. French researchers report theyare having some success killing the virus with an anti-malarial drug calledhydroxychloroquineand some U.S. hospitals are already using it.Still, Dr. Anthony Fauci, head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, cautioned against thinking the drug was a sure fire solution to the coronavirus crisis; the evidence that it's helpful is only anecdotal.There's "no magic drug" for COVID-19, he told CNN. But he added: That doesnt mean that were not going to do everything we can to make things that have even a hint of efficacy more readily available.

A vaccine would be "the holy grail," Smith said. But developing one is a lengthy process.

In the meantime, the best thing to do to mitigate the spread of coronavirus is to stay apart, stay home, avoid going out unless absolutely necessary something some younger Americans who have been gathering on beaches for spring break and, before they were shut, at campus bars have been loathe to do.Without those precautions, a terrifying report by theImperial College London, estimated2.2 million Americans could die.

As frustrating as this whole thing is, if we all work as a community well get through this," said Markel."There will be some tragic deaths, and there will be many more cases before were done. And there will be a lot of inconvenience.

But, he added, "Human beings have wrestled with microbes since the dawn of time. And I say 'wrestled' because they never really win. At best, they fight them to a draw. But they have survived and had far less tools than we have with modern medicine today. We have wonderful public health experts, infectious disease experts.

"We will get through this."

Contact Georgea Kovanis: gkovanis@freepress.com

Read or Share this story: https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2020/03/22/when-will-the-coronavirus-crisis-end/2869481001/

See the original post:
Panic, disruptions and lives on hold: When is the crisis going to end? - Detroit Free Press