Jordyn Brown|Register-Guard

When state shutdowns for COVID-19 first started seven months ago,Oregonians hoped we would be past the worst of the virus' spreadcome fall.

But the reality is quite the contrary.As time as gone on and counties such as Lane have seen shutdown restrictions lift under state guidelines, cases of COVID-19 continue to spread and now public health officials are soundingthe alarm.

The county is seeing an "exponential increase" in cases, Lane County Public Health Spokesperson Jason Davis said. This comes as University of Oregon studentsstarted returning to campusthis weekendandmoving intodorms,and as some schools in Springfield are slated to bring younger students back for in-person instruction starting Monday.

"Weve really stopped short of wagging our finger, because thats not public healths rolewe dont like to scold people or tell our community what to do," said Davis during a live online address Thursday."However now is the time where we need to plead with the community to please, please comply with the health measures that will help prevent the spread of COVID.

"Were in a worse situation than weve been," he said.

As of the latest information posted on the county's website Saturday afternoon, Lane was at 947 total known cases of COVID-19 with 85 known infectious people. Four people arehospitalized and Lane County has had15 total deaths tied to COVID-19. The test positivity rate has gone up to 4.2%, nearly double what it was Sept. 10.

During the address, Davisgave a few examples of how quickly COVID-19 can spread based on their epidemiological discoveries.

In one situation, an asymptomatic person went to a large gathering believed to be over the recommended sizeand had 27 contacts, which led to an outbreak. Another string of spread was related to a backyard birthday party, where being outside was the only precaution taken. This resulted in 15 new cases and numerous contacts.

Even beyond the fact that it is a major public health concern, this exponential growth inLane County's COVID numbers is a worry when it comes to access to any in-person education.

The landscape of Lane County is still about to change as thousands of UO students pour back into the area for fall term.

Lane County Public Health has been closely involved with UO's testing development and its methods for data tracking. Since June 1, UO has reported 57 cases associated with students, faculty or staff of the Eugene campus. Right now, the county and UO are both in a "moderate" COVID-19 alert level, meaning most of the cases have a known source and the capacity in health care facilities is stable.

UO announced a few weeks ago the majority of its classes and instruction will be remote for fall term, with the exception of some small labs and discussions.

However, many of the areas on campus, such as libraries,will be open to students, though not the general public,and students began moving into residence halls this weekend, according to the UO spokesperson Kay Jarvis.

All students are assigned a move-in day and time to reduce the number of people arriving at onceand must take a COVID-19 test before moving into their dorms. UO has told students they should plan to quarantine at their home, a hotel or other location with their family until after their test results come back.

If the test comes back negative, students can move into their dorm rooms as planned. If the test comes back positive, they will instead be contacted by UO's case management team to discuss options. The UO has reserved all of Barnhart Hall as an isolation space for students living on campus, so they would instead have to move into that dorm while they recover.

"Our team will bring you meals, check on your healthand provide as much support as we can while you get healthy," the website states. "You will not be alone."

Students in dorms will be tested again within about a week after their initial move-in. There are only single and double rooms available on campus this year to comply with state guidelines on physical distancing no triples.

This level of testing goes beyond what is required. Oregon is not requiring colleges to test all students in residence halls prior to move-in.

Masks or face coverings also will be required on campusand strict cleaning protocols areamong the many other measures in place due to state requirements.

But even with students returning to campus, Davis said the protocols in place could actually help reduce some spread, or at least contain it.

Right now, small gatherings are driving a spiderweb effect of spread, he said. Some of these events have led to third-generation COVID-19 casesstemmed from one person.

But as long as people are being careful and monitoring the gatherings in a more rigid way, "we're actually probably going to see less transmission than we're currently seeing with small gatherings," Davis said in an interview with The Register-Guard on Saturday. "That's where we're seeing a lack of deliberate actions, where people are letting their guard down."

Public health relieson tracking and understanding human behavior, Davis said. So they are often looking at ways tomake changes that promote public health that still don't infringe on peoples' civil liberties.

"It'sa balance for public health and one of the placesthat we don't have to ride that balance quite so hard is ineducation," he said, because it's easier to set rules for people to comply with. "Because there is a certain amount of authority even within higher ed, you still have that ability to affect change that you won't be able to affect in just general society."

Some K-3 students return Monday

On Monday, the majority of Springfield's elementary schools will start the process of bringing kindergarten through third grade students back into its buildings. The district is taking a tiered approach, starting with kindergarten and first gradethis week, then second and third grades in subsequent weeks.

Bethel and Eugene 4J school districts opted tostart fully with distance learning, even though they also could bring back K-3.

The state metrics require any district looking to bring back grades K-3meet the following requirements:A county case ratefewer than 30cases per 100,000 people of the population in the preceding sevendays, and a test positivity rate in the countyless than 5% in the preceding sevendays. Both of these metrics have to hold for three straight weeks. A school also must have no new COVID-19 cases among school staff or students in the last 14 days.

Lane County meets these case count requirements, though ifnumbers continue to increasethat may change.

One Springfield school Mt. Vernon Elementary already had to make a last-minute shift to distance learningbecause of a COVID-19 case identified in a student Friday night.

This wasthe concern among many teachers in Springfield schools, who haveexpressedfrustrations and fears to union leaders and on social media about returning to classrooms orhaving to make a last-minute change to distance learningshould cases go up.

"There isa mix, of course, ofmembers who areready and excited to go back and have considered the safety precautions that are in place for for returning in-person," said Jonathan Gault, Springfield Education Association president in an interview on Labor Day."There are otherswho are still frightful, having not not yet visited the school and really not even ventured far out of their house much since March."

Davis with Lane Public Health saidcontaining spread comes down to whether people choose to comply with rules and if they can be monitored.

"Ifyou compare (a school)to just like a general social structure or dealing with adults,it's going tobe far more effective," he said. "We're going to be able to prevent a lot more disease than we are just as general society because telling someone, you know,'I don't want you to hug your mom forsix months,' versus, 'Sit down in your seat Johnny, and you need to be at least 6 feet away from Billy,'that's a completely different and much more manageable scenario."

On top of an already unprecedented start to the school year, Springfield also is dealing with the effects of the Holiday Farm Fire inLane County, which pushed the school year back a week and displaced some students and employees.

The district said it's making accommodations for those impacted and the first few weeks of school will just be focused on reconnecting with students and ensuring they have what they need, including a device for class if they left theirsbehind while evacuating, or WiFi connectivity if they've lost their home.

"We're not going to be focusing heavily on any kind of attendance or penalizing them," said district spokesperson Jen McCulley,"because this is a time that we know that families are juggling lots of different components, and so we are going to be here when they're ready."

The main driver ofCOVID-19 cases increasing in Lane County are gatherings with few safety precautions to prevent spread.

Even something so simple as a recent birthday party at a restaurant with more than the suggested amount of people led to nine new cases and 15 contacts.

So, especially with school starting and UO students returning to campus, Davis said it's time for adults in Lane County to "buckle down" on public health protocols and see this for what it is: an essential and coordinated community effort.

Then people regardless of age or condition won't die. Your neighbors and friends won't suffer long-term health impacts. Schools can reopen.

"It's really a small sacrifice in the scheme of things, with a huge amount of a reward if you're talking about an investment perspective, this is a no-brainer," he said. "Wear your mask. Do without the birthday party this year.Have a little distance between yourself and others, and guess what?We get to save businesses, and lives. There's really no disadvantage."

Based on what epidemiologists have discovered about how quickly and easily COVID-19 spreads,even just a few peoplewho work against these safety measures could up the case count and impact others who could experiencemore severe symptoms or death.

"This is coming from a place of genuine concern for our community based on the best science we havenot on any political motive or power grab," Davissaid. "This has purely to do with acting with what we honestly believe in our heart of hearts (is)the best interest of our community."

Contact reporter Jordyn Brown at jbrown@registerguard.com or 541-338-2203, and follow her on Twitter @thejordynbrown and Instagram @registerguard.

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Lane Public Health officials sound the alarm on rising COVID-19 counts as school starts - The Register-Guard