Each year since 2003, thousands of Fantasy Surfer players attempt to predict the success of World Tour competitors at each WCT event. Those with the best strategies (or perhaps a really lucky Magic 8 ball) accumulate enough points by seasons end to be crowned Fantasy Surfer Champion. Past FS victors have been software gurus (Kevin Priester), ex racecar drivers (Luca Fioravanti), former top-tier professional surfers (Shea Lopez), and several industry insiders.

Dan Waltersthis years winner who outsmarted 13,600 other Fantasy Surfer playersused analytics, statistics and a keen eye for whos surfing well and whos not to climb his way to the top of the 2019 rankings. Walters, who works as a professor in behavioral sciences, used predictive data to choose winning teams and accumulate the most points by year-end. We recently caught up with Walters for a quick back-and-forth regarding his Fantasy Surfer success.

How long have you been playing Fantasy Surfer?Ive been playing Fantasy Surfer for 7 years. My strategy centers around weighing the factors that are most predictive of surfer success at each venue.

What do you do for a living?Something that might tend towards analytics?Im a professor of behavioral sciences so I spend a lot of my time trying to predict human behavior using modeling and statistical analysis. I attempted to bring the same level of rigor to my Fantasy Surfer predictions. In 2014, I downloaded all of the data on competitors performances from the World Surf League and archived ASPs websites. From this data, I constructed a predictive model that incorporated a long list of variables, including surf conditions, current ranking, fixed effects for individual competitors, current cost on Fantasy Surfer and a number of other elements. Modeling these variables with all of the past data helped to determine which were the most important at which locations and for which surfers. I wont give away all of my secrets, but you might be surprised that some variables where very predictive while others were not.

So what would be a good example of what youve used this data to predict?For instance, results in the past two contests are very good predictors of future performance, even after controlling for current rank and performance in past years. This model served me well and I consistently performed at the top of my league. However, in the last year, I made a change in how I utilized the model that may have allowed me to clinch the big win.=

What did you do differently?Rather than following the model religiously, I also incorporated my own competitive strategy. For instance, I would take the top recommendations of the model and then think about how other Fantasy Surfer players might choose. If the model recommended two surfers, one that I felt would be chosen by most FS players, and one that would be a low-percentage choice, then I would be more likely to choose the low-percentage surfer. Thus, my team choice was data-driven, but also incorporated a strategy of contrarian decision making.

Thats some heavy planning for Fantasy Surfer!These strategies helped me be successful, but of course, I was also very lucky. Losing one more heat would have cost me the championship. Also, truth be told, I forgot to set my team for Pipe (I spent about 5 minutes setting a preliminary team) but still did very well in the contest.

You incorporate a lot of history and data regarding results, do you also follow all the surfers on Twitter and Instagram to stay on top of their injuries, travels, etc.?

I dont tend to follow surfers on social media. I find that its mostly noise and hard to gather any useful information.If a surfer is injured I might check social media to gauge their recovery progress. I might also look through clips of rookies to assess how they could perform at a given location or in specific conditions.

Thanks for your time, Dan!

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Could Statistical Analysis Predict Who Will Win the Next 'CT Event? - Surfer Magazine