A new variant: What we know

This weekend, Britain imposed a wholesale lockdown on London and most of the countrys southeast, citing fears about a new strain of the coronavirus, which officials say is more contagious..

Countries in the European Union, the Middle East and Asia raced to bar travelers from the United Kingdom, suspending flights and cutting off trade routes. People crowded into train stations and airports, trying to flee the city before the restrictions went into effect.

But from a contagion perspective, scientists and experts say, the travel bans may be an overreaction. Heres what we know so far.

Viral variants are not a shock. As our colleague Apoorva Mandavilli has reported, the new variant has worried scientists, but not surprised them. Researchers have recorded thousands of tiny modifications in the genetic material of the coronavirus as it has hopscotched across the world.

Natural selection tends to make viruses more contagious. As immunity and vaccinations make it harder for the coronavirus to spread, random mutations occur. Those changes can enable the virus to spread more easily or to escape detection by the bodys immune system.

Were still learning about the mutations. Scientists estimate the variant is 50 percent to 70 percent more transmissible than the original virus. But that number is based on modeling and has not been confirmed in lab experiments, experts told Apoorva.

The vaccines should still work. Experts say it would take years, not months, for the virus to evolve enough to render the current vaccines impotent. No one should worry that there is going to be a single catastrophic mutation that suddenly renders all immunity and antibodies useless, said Jesse Bloom, an evolutionary biologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle. Its not going to be like an on-off switch.

The travel bans might be too late. A similar version of the virus has emerged in South Africa, which shares one of the mutations seen in the British variant, according to scientists who detected it. It is possible that the variant has already spread beyond those countries.

Human behavior drives transmission. Even without the new variant, the biggest variable driving contagion is human behavior. Wherever you are in the world, it is sensible to limit your exposure to other people. And, of course, wear a mask.

With distribution of a coronavirus vaccine beginning in the U.S., here are answers to some questions you may be wondering about:

In early December, the Mexican government knew that Mexico City had reached a critical level of contagion that, according to its own standards, would have required shutting down the citys economy.

But Mexico did not share the true numbers with the public or sufficiently restrict movement in the capital, in an apparent attempt to help the economy during the busy holiday shopping season, reports Natalie Kitroeff, a foreign correspondent for The Times based in Mexico.

Instead, the federal government misled the public about the severity of the outbreak and allowed Mexico City to remain open for another two weeks.

Specifically, when the government was computing its lockdown formula in early December, it used lower numbers in two critical areas the percentage of occupied hospital beds with ventilators, and the percentage of positive coronavirus test results than were publicly stated in its official databases. Officials refused to explain where that data came from.

On Friday, the government finally moved to shut the city down. But it was too late: More than 85 percent of hospital beds in the capital were occupied on Sunday, up from 66 percent when the government decided to delay the lockdown.

Now, doctors say they are running out of crucial medicines. Outside medical supply stores, relatives of patients lined up for hours to buy oxygen.

They have deliberately tried to hide the emergency, said Xavier Tello, a health policy analyst based in Mexico City. Every day they delayed the decision, more people were exposed.

South Korea will ban gatherings of more than five people in and around Seoul, the capital, in an attempt to suppress what the authorities have called an explosive infection surge.

As case numbers were rising in Kenya, doctors across the country went on strike Monday, protesting poor pay, lack of medical insurance and inadequate protective equipment.

Dozens of people protesting virus restrictions many with weapons, body armor or flags supporting President Trump tried to force their way into Oregons State Capitol building in Salem.

Sweeping restrictions will come into effect Saturday in Ontario, the most populous province in Canada. That is also Boxing Day, a major shopping holiday.

Heres a roundup of restrictions in all 50 states.

A panel advising the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on vaccines voted to prioritize people 75 and older and 30 million essential workers, including emergency responders, teachers and grocery store employees.

The pandemic has forced China to confront mental health, a taboo subject there. At the height of its outbreak, more than a third of people experienced symptoms of depression, anxiety, insomnia or acute stress, according to a nationwide survey.

Many Americans arent postponing holiday travel, even during the worst period of the pandemic. On each of the last three days, more than a million travelers passed through airport security checkpoints in the United States.

Pediatricians are concerned that families are skipping visits, and their children are missing out on routine immunizations, flu shots and essential in-person visits and screenings.

Life wont immediately return to normal after you get a vaccine. Our colleagues looked at what you can and cant do after receiving your shot.

Even as they receive inoculations, American health care workers face daunting shortages of personal protective equipment, which will do more to keep them safe in the short term.

A nurse who came out of retirement to fight the virus. A postmaster who laid the bricks of the building he managed. The Timess Opinion section asked five people to tell the story of someone they lost to the pandemic.

Both I and my wife are in our 70s. Im approaching 80. We miss church members and meetings, but church members bring the meetings to us. But we now have our meetings with individuals or pairs. They stand on the walk and we on the porch. At times treats are left on the porch table. Its not so much what we are doing, but what others are doing for us.

Walter Beecher, Gig Harbor, Wash.

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