Category Archives: Human Behavior

Psychology and Jesus: 10 tips to tame anger from the Mayo Clinic – Standard-Times

Jean Stinnett, Special to San Angelo Standard-Times Published 4:30 a.m. CT Nov. 21, 2020

Anger is a normal emotion. When expressed in healthy and positive ways anger is not a problem.(Photo: Getty Images)

This is part 9 of a series. Read the other articles in this series online atgosanangelo.com/lifestyle/faith-values.

Anger is a normal emotion. When expressed in healthy and positive ways anger is not a problem. But when anger is uncontrolled, passive, suppressed, or aggressive, it may lead to destructive behavior, anxiety, dysfunctional relationships, physical ailments (strokes, high blood pressure, headaches, coronary disease, autoimmune disorders, digestive disorders, insomnia, depression, and more) and sometimes suicide. In an on-line article the Mayo Clinic offers the following 10 tips to taming anger.

Reference: Mayoclinic.org/healthy-lifestyle/adult-health/in-depth/angermanagement/art-20045434dated Feb. 29, 2020.

Life has been challenging in 2020. Uncertainties, turmoil, and restrictions from a pandemic in an electrifying election year have pushed us to the brink of the unknown. Our routines are shattered, relationships strained, and beliefs questioned at every turn. Anger and fear bring out the worst in human behavior because they stem from the wisdom of this world (James 3:15). However, God offers wisdom from heaven through His only Son, Jesus Christ.

Scripture says in James 4:1 that quarrels and disputes come from your desires that battle within you. The evil one thrives on envy, pride, ego, self-righteousness, and indulgence in worldly pleasures. This is spiritual warfare, Satans persistent desire to steal, kill and destroy our faith in God. But the Spirit whom God caused to live in us through Jesus gives us a greater gift than any earthly gain: grace upon grace which we did not earn for ourselves. Rather, that is the full benefit of life in Christ through His death and resurrection.

Here is my prayer: Yahweh, Jehovah God, You are who You say You are. You made Yourself known to Moses and the Israelites in their time of need and confusion (Exodus 3:14). From generation to generation in Your Word You were, and are, and always will be. And the Word became flesh and dwelt among us, the One and Only, full of grace and truth (John 1:14). Thank You for Jesus, the light and truth on whom all hope depends. He is the only Lawgiver and Judge, the one who is able to save and destroy (James 4:12). Jesus, hear my earnest plea. Forgive and heal my penitent and contrite heart of impatience, temper tantrums, and angry outbursts. Shield me from every attack of the enemy, Satan, who would hobble me to sin. Correct my errant ways. Discipline me in love. You alone are the Judge of humanity. This world is not my home. Guide me in Your way. Keep mebody, mind, and spiritas a holy temple. Abide in me, Jesus, as I abide in You. Amen Jean Stinnett LPC, author of Please Pray with Me (2018) and Our Monday Prayer (2020)

Jean Stinnett is a licensed professional counselor and author of 'Please Pray With Me' who retired in Mertzon after a30-year career in public education.

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Psychology and Jesus: 10 tips to tame anger from the Mayo Clinic - Standard-Times

Soldier’s will to fight: Implications for Indian Armed Forces – News Intervention

Man behind the Machine matters Most, Always and Every time

Humans: The Final Arbiter in Battle Assessing morale and will to fight (adversary and own) is crucial to the science and art of war (Warcraft). Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, a political scientist at New York University, reckons human will matters enough for many wars to be won by what starts off, in strict military terms, as the weaker side [i]. With very few exceptions, all wars and almost all battles are decided by matters of human will: breaking the enemys will to fight while sustaining ones own will to fight is the key to success in battle. Will to fight is the disposition and decision to fight, to keep fighting and to win.

Technology, Transparency and Modern Weapon Systems: Dilution of Human ImpactWith continuous and increasing emergence of modern, potent, accurate, and long-range weapon systems, technology including autonomous systems, and ISR (intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance), the essentially human nature of war is getting ignored. Many in the past have felt the same. Military history is, as a consequence, littered with disastrously wrong assumptions about belligerents will to fight. France (1950s), America and China (1960-70s), three UNSC members and major powers, for instance, famously underestimated the determination of Vietnams National Liberation Front when they intervened in Vietnam for their own strategic reasons and got a bloody nose instead. During the battle of DOGRAI on the Indo Pak border in the 1965 war, 3 JAT (Indian infantry battalion), known for their sustained dogged courage in battle, led by Lt Col Hayde, MVC achieved a superb victory against overwhelming odds. Lack of focus on the will to fight could create a vulnerable situation to many armed forces and nations forcing a critical situation. The best technology in the world is useless without the force of the will to use it and to keep using it even as casualties mount and unexpected calamities arise.

Use of Modern Computing to Quantify Morale and Will Behavioral scientists are now, bringing the power of modern computing to bear on the question. Defence planners have long used computers to forecast the results of conflicts by crunching data on things like troop numbers, weapons capabilities, ammunition supplies and mechanized forces, air and naval forces quantification. The next step, which will be hugely facilitated with the emergence of artificial intelligence (AI) and scientific models, is to extend the idea into the area of morale, by quantifying the psychological variables that determine whether troops will flee, or stand and fight.

Important Definitions/Aspects pertaining to Will to Fight Predicting human behavior is not an exact science, however, we can significantly improve our understanding of an individual or a units will to fight by assessing and analyzing disposition[ii], which allows for an estimation of overall military effectiveness and forecasting of behavior. Wars rarely end simply because one military destroys another. Government and leaders determine how and when wars end, and they may have to decide many times during a conflict whether their country should continue enduring risk and sacrifice or whether it is time to stop fighting. Tangible factors, such as remaining force levels, logistical resilience, weapon systems, are obviously part of the decision calculus, but it is often less-tangible political and economic variables that ultimately determine what might be called a national will to fight. It is thedetermination of a national governmentto conduct sustained military and other operations to achieve their objective, even when the expectation of success decreases or the need for significant political, economic, and military sacrifices increases.

Pivotal Role of Influence Information and Psychological Operations (IIO and PSYOPS) affecting Morale and Will to Fight Confrontation/conflicts have moved from attrition to manoeuvre, and now to a combination of the above along with the cognitive domains of Information (Influence) Operations (IIO/IO) and Psychological Operations (PSYOPS). Nations would always prefer achieving their strategic aims without warfighting in the traditional sense, and impose their will using cognitive/non-kinetic domains. There are innumerable examples in military history where larger/stronger forces have lost purely because they lost morale and the will to fight. One very recent and extremely vivid and game changing event in history where IO and PSYOPS destroyed an Armys will to fight, is the Capture of Northern Iraq by ISIS. In the summer of 2014 the IS (ISIL/ISIS or Daesh in Arabic) roared into Northern Iraq in pick-ups and fully armed (even swords), and blew away four fully trained and equipped Iraqi divisions which vanished overnight into thin air.[iii] But, contrary to tradition, they did not keep their operations a secret but wanted the world to know everything about it. The IS succeeded in subverting the minds and weakening/destroying the will to fight of all commanders, troops and the local population psychologically. Closer home, despite an asymmetric superiority in comprehensive national power (CNP), military and multi-domain fighting capabilities of the Chinese PLA along the LAC in East Ladakh, the Indian Armed Forces operational and tactical superiority, combat experience, high altitude expertise, years of managing the LC/LAC, and the Indian jawans fortitude, raw courage and morale puts India Army on an equal (if not better) footing to negotiate.

Indian Army: Lack of Scientific Models to Evaluate Morale and Will to Fight In our Armed Forces, lot of emphasis is paid to attributes of a leader and the role of morale as important battle winning factors. Theoretical and practical aspects are covered for officers and troops at the initial training, courses and on the job. However, we have not really added its contribution (being intangible) when evaluating/or when carrying out a net-assessment (see definition in Notes[iv] of an adversarys military strength and potential. In our Armed Forces we do a mix of scientific model(s), and affix values to tangibles based on historical precedence/subject experts/ground experience/collective wisdom of group (Delphi system of management[v]). Indian armed forces needs to create models (specific to different situation/terrain/enemy) to assess value of own/adversarys intangibles like morale and will to fight, which has become vital in todays warfare.

Rand Corporation Report 2108[vi] on Will to Fight: An Overview In 2019, RAND published two reports for the US Army describing the will to fight[vii]. They found that there is no generally accepted definition, explanation, or model of will to fight. This means that armed forces and subsidiary forces have no central point of reference for understanding what is, according to joint doctrine, the most important factor in warfare. They created a three-step model to which they finally integrated will to fight in simulation, and needs to be incorporated in planning for actual combat situations.

Findings on Morale and FightingSpirit[viii]. Training, espirit-de-corps,morale, motivation, capabilities and culture are important facets contributingto the will to fight. After diligent research some interesting observations/conclusionsare bulleted as follows:

Famous/Historic Battles showcasing will to fight upsetting military superiority

Battle of Imphal-KohimaVery interestingly and proudly for the Indian Armed Forces and its troops, the battle of Imphal-Kohimaduring the Second WorldWar(WWII) was voted inBritainasBritainsmost hard fought and significantbattlein its entire history.[x] The Indian troops fought in horrendous jungle conditions of Nagaland, marked by vicious hand to hand fighting, when Japanese troops in large numbers crossed Burmese border. The Indian soldiers turned the tide against the Japanese army resulting eventually in their capitulation. The victory was of a profound significance because it demonstrated categorically to the Japanese that they were not invincible. This was to be very important in preparing the entire Japanese nation to accept defeat, Lyman said. This was the last real battle of British Empire and the first battle of the new India. The Indian troops werent fighting for the British or the Raj but for a newly emerging and independent India and against the totalitarianism of Japan.

Inspiring Quotes from Junior Indian Military Leaders. Afew quotes of our junior leaders during battle, showcasing the Indian ArmedForces indomitable will to fight, and which will inspire generations to come.

To every manupon this earth Death Cometh soon or lateAnd how can man die betterThan facing fearful oddsFor the ashes of his fathersAnd the temples of his gods Brig Mohd Usman (P) MVC; BattleOrder for Recapture of Jhangar

RecommendationsIndian Armed Forces should

ConclusionImproving understanding of morale and will to fight might not be a panacea, after all war is not won by silver bullets, but it is a vital factor that is routinely overlooked or misunderstood. Nations and militaries across the world are paying increasing attention to behavioral science to know an adversarial nations and militarys will to fight and their leaders mind. India and its professional armed forces must institutionalize/incorporate this pivotal aspect in their strategic and operational planning expeditiously.

[i] What motivates the dogs of war?, The Economist; Science and Technology, 05 Sep 2020 edition

[ii] Disposition- Soldiers and the units they form develop the disposition to fight or not fight, and to act or not to act, when fearing death. Disposition is essentiallylikelihood.

[iii] The event is widely covered and also paraphrased from Like War: The weaponization of Social Media by PW Singer and Emerson T.Brooking, An Eamon Dolan Book, Houghton Mifflin Harcout, 2018.

[iv] Net assessment is a complex and unconventional framework forthe strategic analysis of military balances. It measures the hard power ofnations in relation to each other, rather than each on its own terms.This kind of analysis, projected over the long-term, helps support moreeffective defence policies in conditions of military-strategic competition.Such a capability is urgently required today in view of the highly competitivenature of global geopolitics.

[v] Delphi system of Management available widely online; one link https://www.rand.org/topics/delphi-method.html

[vi] As a firststep to understand will to fight, the RAND team undertook a literature reviewof more than 200 published works, reviewed U.S. and allied military doctrine,conducted 68 subject-matter expert (SME) interviews, and analyzed historicalbattles/campaigns/case-studies, war- gaming, and simulation.

[vii] Will to Fight: Returning to the Human Fundamentals of War, Rand Corporation,2019; Link- https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB10040.html

[viii] Paraphrasedand adapted from numerous Think Tanks and online articles/papers, including ARTISInternationalwhich is a global scientific research organizationwhich focuses on behavioral dynamics affecting conflict. Its work is fieldorientated, and the fellows come from a wide variety of disciplines; also USAFAcademys Warfighter Effectiveness Research Centre (werc), in Colorado

[ix] Famous Indian battlespost-independence showcasing leadership and the troops indomitable courage,morale and will to fight are listed: Battlesof Rezang La, 18 November 1962; AssalUttar, 8-10 September 1965; Tololing, 20 May 13 June 1999; Nathu La and ChoLa, 1967; Laugewala; Meghna Heli Bridge; Chawinda; Dograi (all four 1971);Special mention to Battle of Saragarhi, 12 September 1897.

[x] Victory over Japanese at Kohima named Britains greatest battle, in Reuters

Lt. Gen. PR Kumar retired from the post of Director General of Military Operations (DGMO) of the Indian Army. As DGMO he was responsible for the entire operational planning, preparation and execution of plans and border management. After his retirement he has been writing for numerous Think Tanks on international and national strategic issues and on security related aspects. He also delivers talks in Armed Forces and Educational institutions.

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Soldier's will to fight: Implications for Indian Armed Forces - News Intervention

Marketing Psychology: 10 Revealing Principles of Human …

One key part of being a great marketer is understanding how (and why)people think and act the way they do. It's much harder tocreate compelling content marketing, for example,if you dont know why it would be compelling to your audience in the first place.

Before you jumpinto the tactical nitty-gritty of marketing, its really helpful to understand how people operate which is essentially what the entire field of psychology attempts to explain. Understanding some key principles of psychology can take your marketingfrom good to amazing, all because the right audience is reading and identifying with it (and most likelyconverting on it, too).

To help you attract, convince, and convert more people with your marketing, you should know the following lessons about psychology.

Have you ever played the game where one person says a word, and the other immediately responds with the first thingthat comes to mind?

That'skind of how priming works. You're exposed to one stimulus, and it affects how you respond to another stimulus.Psychology Todaygives the example of two groups ofpeople reading the word "yellow" followed by either "sky" or "banana."Because people have a semantic association between the fruit and its color, the "yellow-banana" group will recognize the word "banana" fasterthan the "yellow-sky" group recognizes "sky."

What's this got to do with marketing? Lots.Using subtle priming techniques, you could help your website visitors remember key information about your brand -- and maybe even influence their buying behavior.

It's been testedbefore. Ina study by Naomi Mandel and Eric J. Johnson, researchers manipulated the background design of a website to see if it'd affect consumers' product choices. Participants were asked to choose between two products in one category (like a Toyota vs. a Lexus).According to Psychology Today, "they found that visitors who had been primed on money (the websites background was green with pennies on it) looked at price information longer than those who had been primed on safety. Similarly, consumers who had been primed on comfort looked at comfort information longer than those primed on money."

Source: Journal of Consumer Research

So if you're trying to make use of priming in your marketing, think about the small details. They could be the difference between someone buying your highest product price point and bouncing from your page.

Introduced in Dr. Robert Cialdinis book, Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion, the concept of reciprocity is simple -- if someone does something for you, you naturally will want to do something for them.

If you've ever gotten a mint with your billat a restaurant, you've been the victim of reciprocity. According to Cialdini, when servers bring a check to their patrons without a mint,the diners will tip according to their perceptions of the service given. With one mint,the tip jumps up 3.3%. Two mints? The tipjumps "through the roof" to roughly20%.

In your marketing,there are a lot of ways to take advantage of reciprocity. You dont have to be rolling in dough to give something away; it can be anything from a branded sweatshirt, to an exclusive ebook, to a free desktop background, to your expertise on a difficult subject matter. Even something as simple as a hand-written note can go a long way in establishing reciprocity. Just be sure you're giving away the free thingbeforeyou ask for something in return.

Most marketers are aware of this concept already, but it was too important to leave out from this list. If you're not familiar with it, social proofis the theory that people will adopt thebeliefs or actions of a group of people theylike or trust. In other words, its the me too effect. Think of this like an awkward middle school dance -- few people want to be the first one on the dance floor, but once a few people are there, everyone else wants to join in. (Keep in mind, this desire to conform doesnt go away when you get older and less bashful about your dance moves.)

One easy way to make the most of social proof is on your blog. If you're not already, use social sharing and follow buttons that display the number of followers your accounts have or the number of shares a piece of content has. If those numbers are front and center and you already have a few people sharing your post, people who stumble on your post later will be much more likely to share.

You'll often see this effect in pricing models -- one price point is intentionally includedto entice you to choose the most expensive option.

In Dan Airley's famous TED talk,"Are we in control of our own decisions?", he describes an ad fromThe Economist outlining their latest subscription packages. Here's what they offered:

Crazy, right? You could get the print only subscription and the online and print subscription for the same price. Why would they offer that?

That's what Airley thought, too. He reached out to the folks at The Economist, but he never got a straight answer from them.

So he decided to run his own study with 100 MIT students. He gave them the pricing packages outlined above and asked which onethey'd want to buy. When all three options were there, studentschose the combo subscription -- it was the best deal, right? But when he removed the "useless" option (the print subscription for $125), the students preferred the cheapest option.

Turns out that middle option wasn't that useless after all -- it gave students a frame of reference for how "good" the combo deal was and enticed them to pay more for that deal.

So if you're looking to increase conversions on a landing page with two options, you might want to add a third. It could help increase the conversion rate of the option you'd ultimately want people to take.

Ever gone to buy airline tickets and seen a tagline that says Only 3 seats left at this price! Yup, thats scarcity (another Cialdini concept). This psychology principle goes back to the simple formula of supply and demand: The more rare the opportunity, content, or product is, the more valuable it is.

In 1975,Worchel, Lee, and Adewole conducted a study to see how scarcity affected people's perception. At the start of the study, theyasked people to rate chocolate chip cookies. According to an article by my colleague Lanya Olmsteadthat describes the experiment, "[The researchers] put 10cookies in one jar, and two of the same cookies in another jar. The cookies from the two-cookie jar received ratingstwiceas high as the 10 cookie jar even though the cookies were exactly the same."

But if you want to properly use this principle, you need to be careful how you word it. If you approach the scarcity concept as if there used to be a ton of a product or service, but due to popular demand theres a few left, people will be very receptive. On the other hand, if you approach it from the angle that there are only a few products total, so get it now, the principle wont be as effective. Check out this post from Nir and Far for a deeper explanation on why that distinction is important.

Ever wondered why it's so hard to resist a sale at your favorite clothing store?

Often, it has to do with anchoring -- peoplebase decisions onthe first piece of information theyreceive. So if my favorite store typically retails jeans for $50, but I find them on sale for $35, I'll be ecstatic. "I just got a crazy deal on these jeans,"I'll think. I'll probably even buy them. But if my friend typically shops for jeans that are $20, she won't be nearly as impressed.

For marketers, anchoring is important to know -- especially if you're ever running a sale.You'll want to clearly state the initial price of the product (this is "setting" the anchor), and thendisplay the sale price right next to it. You might even explain how much of a percentage off your customers will receive with the sale.

Image credit: Express

Ever heard about a product and then start seeing it everywhere you look?You can thank theTheBaader-Meinhof Phenomenon.It starts happening after you encounter something for the first time, and then you start noticingit cropping up in everyday life. Suddenly you see ads for the product every time you watch TV. And when you go to the grocery store, you happen to walk down the aisle and spot it. And alllllll of your friends all have the product.

It's weird right? Here'swhy you're suddenly seeing this new thing everywhere.

According to PS Mag,this phenomenon (also called "the frequency illusion") is caused by two processes. "The first, selective attention, kicks in when youre struck by a new word, thing, or idea; after that, you unconsciously keep an eye out for it, and as a result find it surprisingly often. The second process, confirmation bias, reassures you that each sighting is further proof of your impression that the thing has gained overnight omnipresence."

For marketers, this phenomenon is precisely whynurturing is incredibly important. Once someone starts noticing your brand (aka clicking around on your website), you'll want to help them start seeing you "everywhere." Send them targetednurturing emails and retargeting ads based on their behavior, and you could increase thepossibility of them converting.

According toa study byPoppenk, Joanisse, Danckert, and Khler, people are more likely to rememberthe gist of what someone said, not the specific details. So when you attend a session on how to blog for your business, you're most likely going to remember details like "Have another person edit your work," not "Send a Google Doc three business days ahead of time to a peer so they can edit your work. Don't forget to use Track Changes so you know what you missed!"

They called this the "verbatim effect." And itcan have a huge effect on how your content performs.

To begin with, people are spending less and less time actually reading online. According to data from Chartbeat, more than half of your visitors will spend less than 15 seconds on your site. So if people aren't reading your contentandnot likely to remember specific details, what's a marketer to do?

I'd recommend spending even more time than you already are on perfecting your headline. Not only should it be search- and sharing-friendly, but it should also accurately describe what's in your article. This way, when people are looking for more information on a given topic, they'll think of that one helpful article they read a while ago and Googlethe topic to find it again. If you've done the work, you should appear in the search results.If you need some help writing compelling headline copy, check out this post on our blog.

People have a limited amount of space in their short-term memory. In fact, most people can only remember seven pieces of information (plus or minus two pieces in any given situation) at a time.

To cope, most people tend to cluster similar pieces of information together. For example, if you had a whole grocery list of random items, most people would tend to mentally group items into certain categories (dairy, grain, meat, etc.) to be able to better remember what exactly was on the list.

So when you're creating content, keep clustering in mind. How can you design and lay out your content to increase memory retention? One way to do it is by grouping similar topics together --either under numbered bullet points or with different header sizes. Besides being much easier to scan, your writing will be much easier to remember and recall down the road -- especially if youre creating long lists of content.

Loss aversion means pretty much exactly what it sounds like: Once someone has something, they realllllly don't like to lose it.

WhenDaniel Kahneman studied this concept, participants were given mugs, chocolate, or nothing. Then, they were asked to make a choice, they were give two options: If they were given an object, they could trade their objects, or if they were given nothing, they could choose one of the two items. The result? Roughly half of the participants who started with no items chose mugs, but 86% of those given mugs to begin with stuck with that item.

Moral of the story? People don't like to lose what they've already gained.

Though this could open up some semi-sketchy doors for certain types of marketers, loss aversion couldhave a significant factor in freemium products and increasedproduct adoption. For example, you couldungate a feature for the free version of your product for a certain amount of time. After that time period is up, that feature could be removed unless you upgrade to becoming a paying customer. While you certainly have to be careful how you play to this psychological need, loss aversion is a very important concept for every marketer to know.

What other psychology studies and concepts do you swear by? Share your favorites in the comments.

Editor's Note: This post was originally published in July 2013and has been updated for freshness, accuracy, and comprehensiveness.

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Marketing Psychology: 10 Revealing Principles of Human ...

The most persuasive people use these 3 timing methods to get what they want, says human behavior expert – CNBC

1. Know when you should (and shouldn't) go first.

Many persuasive encounters are "serial competitions," in which people appear before "judges" one after another. (Think: Pitching for new business or a series of candidates coming in for job interviews every hour.)

There's a lot of interesting research that tells us where we want to be in these serial sequences, and it distills down to some useful guidelines for when you want to go first and when you don't want to go first.

You're better off going first when:

You're better off going toward the end when:

"I've got some good news and I've got some bad news." We've all said these words at some point. But which should you give first the good news or the bad?

I used to always give the good news first. It seemed logical. Giving bad news is uncomfortable, so I wanted to ease into it. I also believed that if I started with the bad news, the other side might shut down and not want to hear the rest of what I had to say.

But when I looked at the research, I discovered my reasoning was upside down. According to one study, when people were asked this famous phrase, four out of five preferred to hear the bad news first.

(What's funny is that I, too, would want to hear the bad news first. But I thought I was alone in that preference.)

What's going on? Research shows that people have a strong preference for rising sequences at the end, rather than declining sequences at the end.

The bad news is that I was doing it wrong; the good news is now I know how to do it better.

When people are confronted with a decision, they often have in their back pocket a default decision. And the default decision is almost always no.

If you're asking your boss for a raise, for example, the default decision is no. If you're trying to get someone to buy something, the default decision is no.

But studies show that people are slightly more likely to overcome the default at two moments: Early in the day, and immediately after breaks.

So, if you have a tough prospect and you know the answer is no, you might have a marginally better chance if you approach that person at the top of the morning or right after that person has taken a break.

In fact, you can even say, "Let's take a walk first before we discuss this in depth."

Of course, this isn't a guarantee. Far from it. But it might give you a tiny edge. If I have a 5% chance of getting you to say yes and I pick the right time to ask, then maybe I could bump that up to a 7% chance.

That means I still have a 93% chance of no. But, over time and in repeated interactions, that small increase in my favor can be meaningful.

Daniel Pink is a human behavior expert and the bestselling author of "When: The Scientific Secrets of Perfect Timing," "Drive: The Surprising Truth About What Motivates Us" and "To Sell Is Human." He also teaches a course on MasterClass, in which he offers ascience-based approach to the art of persuading, selling and motivating yourself and others. Follow him on Twitter @DanielPink.

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Evolutionary perspectives on human behavior during the coronavirus pandemic: Insights from game theory – DocWire News

This article was originally published here

Evol Med Public Health. 2020 Sep 7;2020(1):181-186. doi: 10.1093/emph/eoaa034. eCollection 2020.

ABSTRACT

The coronavirus pandemic constitutes a global challenge to society and medicine. Here, we review evolutionary insights that are relevant for the understanding of how people respond to the pandemic and what to expect in the aftermath of the crisis. Specifically, we argue that the behavioral immune system (BIS) and sickness behavior (SB) comprise two adaptive responses to impending and actual infection, respectively, and that individuals activating their BIS differ from those showing SB in important ways that may have implications for the prevention and treatment of COVID-19. Moreover, we reframe some of the behavioral health issues associated with the pandemic in a game-theoretical scenario, illustrating the difficulties that arise when public health is treated as a public good. Lay summary: The coronavirus pandemic constitutes a global challenge to society and medicine. In this article, we employ evolutionary theory to improve our understanding of how people respond to the pandemic. Specifically, we argue that human behavior is guided by ancient mechanisms involving either the avoidance of infection or defense against attacks in times of enhanced vulnerability. Moreover, we reframe some of the behavioral health issues associated with the pandemic in a game-theoretical scenario. This helps understand why most people comply with rules of social distancing, while a minority fails to do so for very different reasons. The evolutionary perspective also allows making some predictions for the course of the pandemic.

PMID:33204426 | PMC:PMC7499656 | DOI:10.1093/emph/eoaa034

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Gov. Cuomo: Buffalo and surrounding areas going from Yellow to Orange Zone, part of Niagara County to Yellow Zone – WGRZ.com

Governor Andrew Cuomo says Western New York currently has the worst COVID-19 positivity rate in the state.

ALBANY, N.Y. New York Governor Andrew Cuomo provided an update on the COVID-19 pandemic in Western New York. He says Western New York currently has the worst COVID-19 positivity rate in the state.

And because of that, Buffalo and the surrounding areas in Erie County are going from a Yellow Zone to an Orange Zone. A portion of Niagara County has also been added as a Yellow Zone.

Erie County Executive Mark Poloncarz says the new restrictions go into effect Friday for non-essential businesses and Monday for schools.

This announcement comes as positive cases of COVID-19 continue to rise in the Western New York region, specifically in Erie County, and hospitalizations have more than doubled in the past week.

In an Orange Zone the following takes place:

Cuomo said the positivity rate in Western New York is higher than anywhere else in the state. According to the latest state data, these are currently the highest rates in Western New York:

The governor said in his personal opinion Western New York, "Hasn't lived the full pain of COVID's wrath."

The governor went on to say "Western New York read about New York City, they read about Long Island, they watched it on the TV news, but the numbers were never as bad in Western New York, and you want people to change dramatically their behavior, for me to make these dramatic changes in behavior I have to believe this is real. And, it wasn't real because it wasn't real to me. You know when it becomes real? When it's real to me."

"I get it was real in New York City, but I'm in Buffalo. Buffalo is much different than New York City, and it wasn't real to me. Like South Dakota. I believe that. I believe they didn't have the same level of fear. And, what caused so many people in New York to change their behavior? It was the fear. Why do you guys wear the masks now? Oh, because you said we have to. There's a law that says, no, you wear the masks because you're afraid of COVID and because you're concerned about other people, but because you think it's real. Because it is real for you. Western New York never felt that same level of reality."

He added, also in his opinion that, after Thanksgiving he expects there will be a tremendous spike in cases.

"And you see people saying, nobody's gonna stop me from coming together," Cuomo said. "That's my family. You can't tell me don't socialize with my family. It's gonna happen. It is going to happen. And, it's gonna happen because it's human behavior."

The governor also talked about how Canada had numbers go way up after Canadian Thanksgiving and he warns that will happen here.

"This is a very serious, significant problem in Erie County," Poloncarz said on Tuesday. "There is not a single town or city in Erie County that doesn't have an infection rate under 3 percent."

Dr. Thomas Russo, one of Western New York's leading infectious disease experts, told 2 On Your Side's Kelly Dudzik Wednesday that a lot of Erie County actually qualifies for Red Zone status, but the governor just went Orange for now.

You can watch the full press conference with Governor Cuomo below:

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Gov. Cuomo: Buffalo and surrounding areas going from Yellow to Orange Zone, part of Niagara County to Yellow Zone - WGRZ.com

Twitter and Facebooks diverging philosophies were on display in the latest tech hearing – TechCrunch

The latest tech hearing was a study in contrasts. Contrasts between lawmakers who made an effort to stay on topic in a hearing ostensibly about social media and the 2020 election and those who just talked about whatever was on their minds.

Also contrasts between then and now. Social media companies previously treated any attempt at Section 230 reform as radioactive; now, theyve come around to cooperating so theyre not cut out of the conversation altogether.

But most of all it was a study in contrasts for the two men on the virtual witness stand: Facebooks equivocating chief executive, who always manages to speak too much in the service of saying very little and Twitters laconic business mystic who came off as measurably more poised to meet the moment, wizard beard and all.

In a signal that the hearings stated purpose would not reflect the grab bag of gripes on display Tuesday, the Senate Judiciary Committees own chairman, Sen. Lindsey Graham, threw the plan out early and asked the two CEOs if they had seen any evidence that their platforms were addictive.

Zuckerberg responded with characteristic defensiveness, arguing that the research in this area was not conclusive.

We certainly do not want our products to be addictive, Zuckerberg said, contradicting behavioral scientists, Facebook defectors and common sense observations of its products. We want people to use them because they are meaningful, he added, casting aspersions on the memes and misinformation out there about what makes Facebooks business tick. The response fit neatly into a narrative a few lawmakers pushed that big tech operates out of big tobaccos playbook.

Given the same question, Dorsey was less disingenuous. I do think like anything else, these tools can be addictive and we should be aware of that and acknowledge it, Dorsey said. His statement perhaps stops short of acknowledging the degree to which social media has reshaped the course of modern human behavior, but ultimately it bodes better for Twitters health as a platform and for its users addled brains.

The two CEOs also sharply contrasted on questions about their algorithms.

When Sen. Amy Klobuchar asked if social platforms should provide more transparency around the algorithms they use to decide what users see, Dorsey proposed more transparency through user control. I think a better option is providing more choice to be able to turn off the algorithms or choose a different algorithm so that people can see how it effects ones experience, Dorsey said.

Dorsey also suggested that Twitter could expand those options through something like a third-party marketplace where users could select ranking algorithms that suited their needs.

Zuckerberg, for his part, didnt go near this idea with a 10-foot pole, instead lauding the existence of Facebooks third-party fact-checking program (never mind the too-restrained way Facebook presents those fact checks) and the companys community standards reports, which present aggregated numbers on the rule-breaking content it removes. Facebooks algorithm is a black box that users are locked inside and thats that. (Naturally, the box prints ad dollars.)

In contrast, Twitter has committed to a kind of openness thats not perfect, but its at least refreshing. The company treats its platform policy decisions as a kind of living document, tweeting updates about the most high-profile decisions in near real-time, admitting mistakes and emphasizing that its learning and changing things as it goes.

One example of Twitters experimental approach: The company universally disabled one-click retweets before the U.S. election, hoping to make user behavior less reactive while slowing down viral election misinformation. The changes were part of Twitters recent experiments with introducing more friction to the platform. Twitter also hid tweets and restricted sharing for some particularly egregious bits of misinformation some of it coming from President Trump. Facebook stuck to labels, the current bare minimum content moderation gesture.

Dorseys company is still plagued by rampant harassment, brain-melting conspiracies and, for now, a lame duck president actively seeking to destabilize American democracy, but it at least seems open to changes that could shift the dynamics of the platform in the interest of making it better.

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Twitter and Facebooks diverging philosophies were on display in the latest tech hearing - TechCrunch

Lessons from COVID-19 for the next pandemic: Invest in public health, earn public trust – AAMC

COVID-19 has demonstrated that the United States must prepare for future pandemics by increasing investments in public health, shifting more resources to clinical trials, and getting more people to change behaviors, top federal health officials said Nov.16 at the opening plenary session of Learn Serve Lead 2020: The Virtual Experience, the annual meeting of the AAMC.

Francis Collins, MD, PhD, director of the National Institutes of Health (NIH), and Anne Schuchat, MD, principal deputy director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), said the medical and scientific fields responded to COVID-19 with remarkable speed and innovation, butthe nation must apply lessons from that response in order to combat the next fast-sweeping disease.

The mathematical probability of another pandemic is essentially the same every single day, Schuchat told moderator David Skorton, MD, AAMC president and CEO. The chances that we're going to have something else horrible, imminently, are very real.

Responding effectively will require investing more money and manpower in public health systems at the federal, state, and local levels, they said.

Weve neglected public health. That has not served us well, Schuchat said.We cant take public health capacity for granted.

Collins lamented that although the nation turns its attention to public health systems during a health crisis, we tend to shift to complacencyafter the crisis a pattern that should not repeat after the COVID-19 pandemic subsides.

We need to revitalize the public health system to be prepared to deal with whatever that next pandemic is, he said. That system needs resources, it needs people.

Speaking just hours after announcing one of the most uplifting scientific developments in the fight against COVID-19 preliminary data showing that a vaccine developed by Moderna was 94.5% effective in protecting clinical trial participants from the disease Collins shared observations about the nations ability to conduct such trials in an emergency.

It has been astounding to see the way the entire scientific community has pulled together to produce treatment and vaccine candidates in a fraction of the usual time, Collins said.

Yet clinical trials of therapies and vaccines for COVID-19 havesometimes been slowed by insufficient capacity, he noted. Thatsbecause some laboratory resources and personnel were already dedicated to ongoing trials that could not be stopped and also because some staff were needed to care for COVID-19 patients.

We had some difficulties, and still are, trying to rapidly activate clinical trials for the most pressing issues, he said. Some of our system is still clogged up a bit by trials for other diseases that, while important, are not as critical as a highly deadly pandemic.

While research must continue into chronic diseases, Collins explained, the NIH will take a hard look at whether our clinical trial system in the United States is really optimized to handle what might be coming next that is, a disease that requires the fast mobilization of massive scientific resources.

Because laboratory and clinical research takes a long time even under the best circumstances, Schuchat turned to the science of human behavior as another vital factor in defeating a pandemic. She said health and government leaders need to guide the public to adopt behaviors that prevent the spread of a disease while scientists research and implement medical interventions.

We can't put all of our eggs in the countermeasure basket, Schuchat said. As great as technology is were not going to have vaccines on day one. So we have to get better at the human-to-human, social behavioral kinds of changes that can slow infections.

That, she explained, requires clear and consistent communication starting at the community level and including public health leaders, and moving up through various levels of government.

When we have inconsistent messages from different jurisdictions or different voices, it's really confusing for the public, Schuchat said. The value of coordinated messaging that acknowledges uncertainty, that acknowledges transparency, is just vital.

Communicating with specific populations is also important such as marginalized communities that feel they have been poorly served and even abused by medical institutions. Companies have found it challenging to establish trust in vaccine development among Black Americans, and the challenge will continue when it comes time to administer COVID-19 vaccines, Collins said.

He recalled that early in several of the current vaccine trials, the companies were having a very difficult time recruiting African Americans. A history of mistreatment in research and medicine including the infamous Tuskegee syphilis study hasleft many Black Americans distrustful. Collins said that when companies tried to enroll Black people in their COVID-19 trials, two words that they commonly heard in response wereTuskegee and no.

You can understand the dark history hereof how medical research has not treated certain populations with justice, Collins said. We have a lot of work to do.

He said the NIH worked with Moderna to increase Black participation in its vaccine trialand is working now on ways to ensure that treatments and vaccines reach populations including Black and Latino that have been disproportionately harmed by COVID-19 and other diseases. To achieve that, the NIH will broaden its outreach among experts, Collins explained.

Were tapping into not just the most senior members of the research community, but we also want creative ideas from people who are earlier in their careers and are able to see bolder ways we can address health disparities, Collins said. So watch us.

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Lessons from COVID-19 for the next pandemic: Invest in public health, earn public trust - AAMC

Five Online Tools for Evaluating Covid-19 Risk Ahead of the Holidays – Smithsonian Magazine

In a normal year, the holiday season an opportunity for families and friends to gather and celebrate special days with food and merriment. But against a backdrop of the Covid-19 pandemic, many are now trying to puzzle out safe ways to celebrate.

2020s holiday season has already startedDiwali was November 14and a poll conducted by Ohio State University found that over the next few months, 38 percent of Americans plan to attend gatherings of ten or more people, Zeeshan Aleem reports for Vox. To help people figure out ways to reduce the risks of gatherings like these, researchers around the country have developed free online tools that visualize different facets of the pandemics dangers.

Experts warn that people shouldnt rely too heavily on any single risk-assessment tool because they can give a false sense of security, Allyson Chiu reports for the Washington Post. But for those who plan to gather this holiday season, the tools might help come up with creative ways to reduce risk.

Georgia Institute of Technologys Interactive Map

What this tool can tell you: This interactive map shows the likelihood of encountering someone with a coronavirus infection depending on how many people are at the event, and where the event is taking place.

The tool could be used by government officials deciding how to design public health policies, Deborah Netburn reports for the Los Angeles Times. But it could also help holiday travelers assess the risks of their origins and destinations.

Its also the only peer-reviewed tool available. Its creators published a paper about the research behind the tool in Nature Human Behavior on November 9.

What this tool cant tell you: The map doesnt show the risk of contracting the virus at an event, George Washington University professor of medicine and health policy William Borden tells the Washington Post. It doesnt take into account whether the event is held indoors or outdoors, whether people are wearing masks or attendees behavior before the event.

What this tool can tell you: This tool looks at what kind of event is being held; how many people will be there and for how long; the events location; and how many people will be wearing masks. Considering those factors, it calculates the risk estimate from low to very high. The app then walks the user through a series of suggestions to reduce risk.

What we wanted to do was help people directly visualize how their behavior can directly impact their risk of contracting the virus, Elizabeth Goldberg, an emergency physician at Brown University, tells Kelcie Pegher at the Los Angeles Times.

What this tool cant tell you: Like the Georgia Institute of Technologys interactive map, this tool doesnt take into account individuals behavior before an event. (For example: Are they eating indoors at resturants? Are they working remotely?) The app developers plan to translate the app in several languages, they tell the Los Angeles Times, but it is currently available in English.

What this tool can tell you: A team at the University of Colorado Boulder created a model to determine the risk of coronavirus transmission in different spaces, like offices, classrooms or indoor house parties, Maya Wei-Haas and Kennedy Elliot reported for National Geographic in August.

The charts published in National Geographic allow people to alter the local infection rate, the square feet per person and the effectiveness of masks that people are wearing. After taking those variables into account, the charts show how likely infection becomes over the course of three hours in the space.

What this tool cant tell you: A few factors in the model might be difficult for an average user to guess before an event, like the percent effectiveness of the masks that other people will be wearing. The model also doesnt account for how risk increases when you stand closer to an infected person, where the virus-carrying droplets would be more concentrated.

What this tool can tell you: This tool uses detailed information about the design of a room to estimate the risk of Covid-19 transmission in that space. You can input information about the rooms floor plan, ceiling height, ventilation and filtration systems. The tool also asks how many people will be in the space, and for how long, and whether or not people will wear masks.

By getting into the nitty-gritty of an event space, it addresses some of the gaps in other tools.

What this tool doesnt tell you: This tool doesnt take an events geographic location into account and how many Covid-19 cases there currently are locallu. It also doesnt attempt to estimate the likelihood of an infectious person showing up. But it does allow you to add a hypothetical infectious person to your party.

None of the tools can anticipate every possible scenario, and any event where people gather comes with some risk of Covid-19 transmission. The U.S. has recorded more than 100,000 new cases per day every day since November 4, and cases surged in Canada after their Thanksgiving in October.

Several states are putting restrictions in place for the next few months. In some places, indoor gatherings are limited to ten people or fewer. In Oregon, the limit is six people to an indoor gathering from no more than two households, AARPs Dena Bunis and Jenny Rough report. Some states also require out-of-state visitors to quarantine for two weeks.

According to the CDC's guidelines for holiday gatherings, hosts should limit the number of attendees at any event, events should take place outdoors, and guests should wear masks as much as possible. For example, holidays could be celebrated with a quick visit to see family, but without a meal, so everyone could stay masked.

Were going to look back at what happened during this holiday season and ask ourselves, Were we part of the solution or were we part of the problem? says Iahn Gonsenhauser, chief quality and patient safety officer at Ohio State Universitys Wexner Medical Center, in a statement. When youre gathered together around the table, engaged in conversation, sitting less than six feet apart with your masks down, even in a small group, thats when the spread of this virus can really happen.

Of course, the safest option would be to hold events virtually, and skip in-person, indoor gatherings, especially big groups, altogether this year. At a Mississippi State Medical Association video conference, the group's president Mark Horne had a sober message for attendees, reports Ashton Pittman for the Mississippi Free Press.

We dont really want to see Mamaw at Thanksgiving and bury her by Christmas, Horne says. Its going to happen. Youre going to say hi at Thanksgiving, its so nice to see you, and youre either going to be visiting her by Facetime in the ICU or planning a small funeral by Christmas."

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Five Online Tools for Evaluating Covid-19 Risk Ahead of the Holidays - Smithsonian Magazine

Two Guys on Your Head – KUT

Each week on Two Guys on Your Head, Dr. Art Markman and Dr. Bob Duke, explore different aspects of human behavior and the brain.

In conversations hosted by producerRebecca McInroy, the two renowned psychologists cover everything from the effects of sugar on the brain, to what's happening in our minds while we sleep, and much, much more.

Listen to the Two Guys every Friday at 7:51 a.m., 1:49 and 4:51 p.m. on KUT-FM. You can always dig into the posts below or checkout and subscribe to podcasts via iTunes.

We'd love to know what you're curious about! Email us your topics and suggestions at twoguys@kut.org.And follow Two Guys on Twitter: @2GoYH

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Two Guys on Your Head - KUT