Category Archives: Human Behavior

Human Behavior

Why America’s leaders need to improve communication now in the COVID-19 crisis – KARE11.com

Dr. Matthew Seeger co-wrote the CDC's crisis communications manual, but says America's leaders didn't follow it at the start of the pandemic.

There is a playbook in America for how leaders should communicate with citizens in a crisis: that could be a hurricane, a terror attack, or even a pandemic.

Dr. Matthew Seeger of Wayne State University knows all about that playbook, as he was one of the experts who contributed to writing the CDC's 450-page manual for how U.S. leaders should communicate during a health crisis

"I've worked my entire career in the field of disasters and crises. I've worked for CDC and WHO," Dr. Seeger said. "I helped the CDC develop some of their crisis communication plans."

Sadly, he says, Americas leaders did not follow this playbook back in the early part of 2020, but that they should get back to it now as we approach an uncertain winter and COVID-19.

"Pretty much every public health official in the country was trained in crisis and emergency risk communication using the CDC materials. Sadly, we did not follow that protocol with the COVID 19 pandemic," he said.

While we can argue about why that was, we cannot change what was. The missed chance of having a consistent and clear message to all Americans, is missed; but, we are still in crisis, so Dr. Seeger says it's time to communicate still, and aim to be consistent in messaging

"The principal way in which we manage COVID 19 is through human behavior," Seeger said. "That requires that we inform and we persuade people using communication, messaging to get them to change their behavior."

And right now is more important than ever, as whatever officials said in their plea to get folks to stay home for Thanksgiving -- didn't work for millions of Americans.

With another major holiday approaching, Dr. Seeger says we have to try again, but leave shaming and yelling at people, at the door. That doesn't work.

"It actually may persuade people to continue those problematic behaviors because they may feel that they are being attacked; and they really need to double down on their behaviors because then it becomes us vs. them," he said.

So what should leaders do? Dr. Seeger says, tell the human story of COVID, and tell ALL of them.

"Personalize this to say these are your friends, this is your family, your children, your brothers your sister. It's harder to demonize individuals when we recognize these people are part of our lives," he said. "I also think it's important we tell the story of the individual who was skeptical and try to allow them a space to express themselves rather than demonize that attitude."

Think of it like your social media feed when it comes to ads, the ones that work that target your lived experience. So far, with mixed messages, confusing messages, misinformation and mandates, it's left too much room.

So has, in his opinion, only one message for everyone.

"One of the challenges with some of our messaging is one size fits all," Dr. Seeger said. "We tell people to wear masks and stay away from others. If I live in a multigenerational household or I have to go to work, it's much more difficult for me to comply with some of those recommendations, so we need to be more sensitive and nuanced in what we are saying to people and how we are saying that to people."

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Why America's leaders need to improve communication now in the COVID-19 crisis - KARE11.com

Human Behavior

Is It a Boy or a Girl? – Discovery Institute

Photo credit: Christian Bowen via Unsplash.

Authors note: This is Part One of a seven-part series about transgenderism. Nothing in the series is intended to disparage any transgender person, any gender non-conforming person, or any person attracted to members of the same sex. I write as a developmental biologist (Berkeley PhD), and I focus on evidence pertaining to transgender treatments for children.

WARNING: Parts of this series contain explicit language. Reader discretion is advised.

Parents with a new baby are almost always asked, Is it a boy or a girl? And the answer is almost always one or the other.

About 99.98 percent of babies are clearly boys or girls. Only about one baby out of every 4,500 has ambiguous genitals. The cause is a disorder of sexual development (DSD). The term DSD is now often replaced by intersex.

In 2000, biologist Anne Fausto-Sterling argued that intersex births occur about 1.7 percent of the time instead of 0.02 percent. But physician Leonard Sax objected that Fausto-Sterling defined intersex too broadly. On the contrary, he maintains, human sex is about 99.98% binary.

Humans normally have 46 chromosomes. Two of these are the sex chromosomes, X and Y. Almost all babies with 46 chromosomes and two X chromosomes (designated 46,XX) are clearly girls. And almost all babies with 46 chromosomes and a Y as well as an X (designated 46,XY) are clearly boys. But (as with many things in biology) there are exceptions.

About one in 20,000 boys is born with 46,XX chromosomes. In most, the male-determining section of the Y chromosome has become attached to an X chromosome. Fewer than one in 20,000 girls is born with 46,XY chromosomes. Probably, mutations have blocked male development.

Some people have argued that the brains of male and females are different. Others disagree and argue that there is no such thing as a male brain or a female brain. So far, neuroscience has not settled the disagreement.

Some people have argued that sex is binary because of the gametes (the sperm and the egg). In 1949, feminist author Simone de Beauvoir wrote (p. 47) that male and female are basically defined by the gametes they produce. In 2018, biologist Jerry Coyne echoed this: If you adhere to the gamete-based definition used by most biologists, sex is effectively binary. Furthermore, Coyne argued, it should be, since evolution produced (in most animals) two sexes that must mate to produce offspring. If youre neither, or an intermediate, you dont leave offspring and you dont leave your genes.

In 2020, biologists Colin Wright and Emma Hilton wrote in The Dangerous Denial of Sex that sex is sometimes ambiguous. But intersex individuals are extremely rare, and they are neither a third sex nor proof that sex is a spectrum or a social construct:

In humans, reproductive anatomy is unambiguously male or female at birth more than 99.98% of the time. The evolutionary function of these two anatomies is to aid in reproduction via the fusion of sperm and ova [eggs]. No third type of sex cell exists in humans, and therefore there is no sex spectrum or additional sexes beyond male and female. Sexis binary.

This does not mean that the behavior of males and females is strictly binary. Men and women exhibit a range of masculine or feminine behaviors. And sexual attraction is not binary. Most men and women are exclusively attracted to members of the other sex. Some are exclusively attracted to members of the same sex. And some are in between. So human behavior, unlike biological sex, is bimodal rather than binary. That is, it has two overlapping humps instead of two separated sharp peaks.

A graph of biological sex would look like the upper part of a football goal post. The goal post is a raised horizontal bar topped by two vertical posts 8 feet apart and 20 feet high. One vertical post represents boys, and the other represents girls.

Because some people are intersex, the top surface of the horizontal bar would not be exactly flat. Instead, it would be the thickness of a credit card higher at either end than in the center. But this would be unnoticeable to someone standing just a few yards away.

Note that the football goal post metaphor is descriptive, not prescriptive. It does not mean that intersex people must conform to one of the uprights.

Parents of newborn intersex babies may feel they should make their children more normal. Yet there is rarely a medical need for such intervention. Some intersex babies suffer from life-threatening conditions that require immediate hormonal or surgical treatment. But apart from such special cases, babies born with ambiguous genitals can grow up without medical intervention to live relatively normal lives.

As philosopher Ellen Feder and historian Alice Dreger wrote in 2016:

Children with DSD can be raised as boys and as girls without being subjected to elective surgeries that lack evidence for necessity, safety, and efficacy, and more importantly that violate their rights [There is a] difference between atypical and unhealthy.

In 2017, three former U.S. surgeons general published a report titled Re-Thinking Genital Surgeries on Intersex Infants. They noted that before the middle of the twentieth century, most children born with genitalia that did not fit the male-female binary norm were not subjected to surgery. Beginning in the 1950s, however, the standard treatment protocol shifted to favor surgery.

Fifty years later, medical opinion is shifting back, for three reasons. First, evidence is lacking that such surgeries make intersex people happier. Second, evidence does show that the surgery itself can cause severe and irreversible physical harm and emotional distress. Third, when such surgeries are performed on children they violate an individuals right to personal autonomy over their own future.

Why did the standard protocol shift to favor surgery in the 1950s? One person stands out: John Money. Moneys ideas and their tragic results are the focus of Parts Two and Three of this series.

Originally posted here:
Is It a Boy or a Girl? - Discovery Institute

Human Behavior

Rich Roll On How to Evolve, Reach Your Goals: Take the First Step – The Beet

The prospect of getting on the phone with Rich Roll is intimidating. What could I possibly ask him to solicit insights that his 11 million listeners (who have downloaded hispodcasts 26 million times) have not already heard, our soaked up, or leaned from the modern master of self-help, self-realization and self-reflection?

Rich Roll has already told the world about his squandering a talented swimming career that got him recruited to every Ivy League college, and aplace on therevered Stanford team, where hediscovered a love of drinkingand hatred for 200-meter repeats. He finally quit out of a lack of commitment, and it was the beginning of a relationship with alcohol that nearly destroyed him.

Roll has also shared his painful journey into addiction, ill health, lethargy and finallybouncing off the floor, enteringrehab and starting along the road to recovery. And he has told the story of rebuilding his life, rock by rock, step by step, and finding a new passionfor running, eating healthy, and eventually going vegan. During his rehabilitation, he lost 40 pounds and rediscovered a love of competitive long-form endurance sport: Swimming, running, biking and eventually competing in the longest and most grueling endurance races on the planet. Ten years ago, Roll competed in the Epic5, the unfathomable series of 5 Ironman races in five days on five Hawaiian islands. It'sthe kind of thing you read about in fiction books when the hero has to cross land and sea to save his civilization. Only this insane event is entered by choice. The distancesgrinding out 2.4 miles in the water, then 112 on the bike against sheering headwinds, and then running 26.2on punishing volcanic terrain, and doing it all overagain the next day,fivedays in a rowbend the arc of reason. No human should be able to do this, much less enjoydoing it, just for kicks.

So I am getting on the phone with this epic athlete who while spending all those hours in motion also spent mental time examining his life, thinking and writing his story, which led him to start his podcast, interviewing athletes and actors, gurus and other seekers, and in the process learning more about humanity to the point where he switches from being the student of human behavior to teaching recovery and redemption to anyone who listens. So that inner process of evolving is ultimately what Roll is known for, even more than the physical feats.

The excuse for the interview is his new book, Voicing Change, a compendium of his conversations with others over a microphone, but even though I am not one of his mostdevoted listeners, I know that Rich Roll has things to teach me, all of us, and I was eager to learn. You dont go into an interview with Roll lightly or ask him for "5 tips forkeeping your dieton track." Expectations for enlightenment are high: You ask him the deep, lingering questions that come to you on a long run or ride, the kinds of things best-selling books are written about. Like his first book, Finding Ultra, which I have read.

I knew my first question, which was both personal and universal, and it had been gnawing at me for months, all during quarantine when time appeared to stand still, but in fact, the days wereticking by and the earth was turning as fast as ever, and I knew this because the moon came up over the eastern horizon every night and set in the west, moving across thebay sky as I would lie in bed, unable to sleep.

Here is my question: How can we evolve, as humans? What is our best chance atbecominga better person, forgiving ourselves the stupid, regrettable acts of the day, and starting fresh tomorrow, and try not to make the same mistakes over and over again? How can we get it right? I feel like I've dropped off a cliff, training-wise, eating-wise, and though I'm plant-based, I regularly choose sweets over salads and let myself off the hook too easily. I have completed 3 Ironman races, trained for 4 (dropping out 3/4 of the way through due to a tendon tear in my left ankle). But even writing that last sentence makes me cringe since I am barely fit enough to run4 miles. I miss beinglight and on my game.

I dont expect that everyone can relate to being determined enough to finish running an Ironman race on a broken foot, which I did once, but perhapseveryone can relate to self-destructive behavior, and Rich talks about that too and how to deal with our patterns, whether they be compulsive shopping or drinking or sugar-binging. He relates personal behavior to emotional and spiritual behavior. Everyone can relate towanting to be a better person, friend, spouse, parent, or daughter. Or just finding joy. (Most of us have an endless to-do list that nags at us when we should be enjoying ourselves at a family night of games or movie watching.) Roll explains how he has gained an acceptance of his extreme "all in" personality and how we can find our own authentic selves and play to our strengths.

In short, I wanted to know from Rich, how do you keep evolving, to be more community-minded, planet minded, get out of your own way and jettison self-destructive patterns,to be a better person? If, as Roll writes in his first book, Finding Ultra, we are all sitting on a mountain of untapped potential, how do we reach that potential, physically, emotionally and spiritually? If we have a song to sing, how do we have the courage to sing it?

No surprise, he gave me a lot to think about. He always gives us all a lot to think about. Here is Rich Roll, on evolving, changing and coping with the fact that not everyone around you is on the same journey. His new book is a gorgeous coffee table-sized compilation of these conversations. Here is what we learned: You can evolve without pain and it can happen incrementally .... not just through dramatic and meaningful schisms. Here is our interview.

The Beet: Everyone I know is jealous of my being on this call. I have about six people who are all either Iron people orvegan or both, who would pay to trade places with me.

Do you think it only really happens when someonehas to change is forced to, because of a medical or other urgent health or psychological event? How can you get someone you love, who is not being healthy, to evolve (to go plant-based or quit smoking or change other self-destructive behavior) or do we need to be the ones to evolve, to a state of acceptance?

Rich Roll: You actually have two questions here. I think the first part of the question -- can one evolve without reaching a crisis point, is yes.It's certainly easier to change, when you find yourself in a pain point, whether it's physical, financial or existential. When you are up against it...your back is up against the wall like you find yourself in rehab or the cardiologist's office, then the choice is made for you. You can't see your way forward. Certainly, that was true for me. That's how I became sober and changed my relationship with food and drink.

When the fear of the unknown is outweighed by the fear of the present, it makes it much easier to change. These fears can be toggled and calibrated but here's the truth: Nobody gets out of life alive. We all face challenges and urgencies. The key is to recognize those moments when you can, because when you recognize that moment when change is needed, and channel it and take that momentum and turbocharge whatever change you are about to make, then you recognize that it has to happen to go forward.

The Beet: Why don't we change by choice? Can we change because we want to?

Rich Roll: Change is always available to us.We don't have to wait until something happens to take advantage of it. For whatever reason, as we get older we get calcified and it's harder to change. The podcast is my own exercise in holding me accountable for that.

Itdoes not need to be a big sweeping dramatic change. You don't need to go vegan overnight, you can do it gradually with small steps. We can decide to make tiny little micro-changes that we can make each day. It doesn't have to be these lines in the sand. Like going vegan. It can be small tweaks. You can decide to give up dairy and then expand from there.

Rich Roll: For most people change is a linear process, done incrementally. You really can take one step forward and two back. If you can make one small change and then hold yourself accountable to that, in the day-to-day, that seems imperceptible. One example is, "I am just going to put almond milk in my coffee and no one is going to notice that," but if you do that for a month, then you add more little decisions like that every day or week or month and over the course of a year or a decade, you are going to be a different person. It's not sexy or noticeable, but it's the grunt work you do (like getting up every morning and going for a run) to make yourself into a different person.

How do you change once things are going well? It's harder. Now, my life is really good. I am happy and I am not meeting those pain points and I have to make myself take these little iterations to move forward. That is where discipline comes in.

Rich Roll: If everything is going well you don't have to change, and people will tell you "Don't change!"But I always look at it from the perspective of a counselor in my treatment who said something I'll never forget, which is that most people fall under the delusion that their lives are essentially static. But that is a complete delusion because every behavior you make or conversation you have with another person is either moving you toward growth or away from it. For me, that means every decision I make is either moving me towards a drink or away from it. What is the next choice I am going to make, or movement I am going to take? And the more you root yourself at the moment and not focus on the long termthe more successful you will be. Think about the immediate next step. It's fine to have goals, and important to have long-term goals of the idealized version of what you want to be. But goals are temporal and once you achieve them it's easy to regress.

Rich Roll: But if you focus on what is the next right thing you need to do, and keep that long term goal in the back of your mind,just take the next step.Goals are there, in the background, but they should not be the first thing you think about. In training for an Ironman triathlon, you think, "I am going to have to get in the water." But don't worry about the 5,000 meters you have to swim today. Just jump in the pool. Then just take a stroke. Then just swim. Don't let the bigger goal overwhelm you. Just do the next right thing.

Reading your book I could relate to the idea of not always doing the right thing, and undermining myself. I am not saying I am addicted to sugar, but at times it feels like it! How do you stop doing things that are unhelpful, that undermine the goal? Like I want to save money and I go online and buy three sweaters. What do you say to this kind of self-undermining?

Rich Roll: Addiction lives on a spectrum and everyone can identify themselveson that spectrum, from the guy who can't pull the needle out of his arm, to the compulsive online shopper, to the person who ends up in a toxic relationship, or the person who eats the pint of ice cream... It is a sense ofnot being in control of what is soothing you in the moment. And we are unconscious to the extent that we medicate our emotions, from our relationship with food or shopping or alcohol or emotions. Anything can be classified as an addictive tendency.

Rich Roll: It is messy and complicated and all those things. There is something to be said for stepping outside your comfort zone and expanding your limits and yet at the same time you can use Ironman training to run away from things. We have all heard of the Ironman widow. It's about your motivation, You can use Ironman to validate yourself. But when you do that, you are really obfuscating and cutting corners, because you can be doing it just to get the pats on the back. What are people are going to say? When I am an Ironman? Ask yourself why do you need that and who are you trying to prove yourself to? Maybe you can get that validation another way.

The question is: Is there a place for balance in your life? Youre podcasting and writing, and training. How do you balance thesea passion for work and a dedication to training?

Rich Roll -- I hate that word balance. Can't stand it.It sets up this imaginary bar that we are all supposed to measure ourselves against. It implies these imaginary buckets that we are all supposed to fill up equally, and have all of these different things humming along at the right levels. There is no way my life is in balance. It's completely out of balance and I used to try to force myself to adhere to this imaginary equation. Then I had an epiphany and realized this is not who I am, and I started letting go of it. I need to live the way I'm wired.

I appreciated the fact that I have this motor that allows me togo all-in on something and now I no longer try to apologize for thator change how I function. Instead, I try to use that to my advantage. When I am doing something, like decorate the tree, I am all in on that. And I am completely focused on it, and then when that is over I switch gears. And when you look at my life on a day-to-day basis it seems out of balance, but then when you look at my year, you realize I am in balance.

I am cognizant of the fact that most people are not wired that way, and I am cognizant that I can't cross over and give advice since everyone is different and I can only tell you what works for me.

Rich Roll: Joy is tricky for me. That is kind of a final frontier. My wife is always saying to me: "You've done all these things and now can you just enjoy it?" I get satisfaction out of the grind and trying to do the best work that I can. I would not classify it as joy. The same is true with training. I don't want to just go out there and enjoy it. I need to go all out. Can I train for the joy of it, without some expectation that I will be better, or faster? As I get older I am trying to do that. As a recovering alcoholic, I am trying to be upbeat and not reclusive and work on all of these tendencies I have to overcome. I bump up against it. But especially amidst the chaos going into the next year.

Whose words do you remember most? Who sticks with you? Who have you learned the most from? Your relationship is a formative new conversation.

Rich Roll. You are asking me to choose between my babies. It's always fun to talk to aIt's fun Russell Brandor Matthew McConaughey. But the ones that are probably the most memorable to me and most meaningful are the interviews where someone who has an amazing story tells it and that story has not been widely told. When I am able to bring it to a new audience, that's meaningful. My favorite podcast is when I uncover somebody with an amazing story who is living anonymously and I get to be the one to say, "You guys have to hear this!"

Say there is someone I love and I would love for them to change and evolve? And maybe I wish they would go plant-based, but they reject every effort and tell me to stop pushing "that vegan stuff" on them. Maybeit's a sibling or a spouse or a parent. How do you deal with someone unwilling to try?

Rich Roll: So your attempts -how are they going?(Laughs.) Not well, right?

You are powerless when it comes to other people's behavior and life choices. So the more you develop an expectation around that, the more you suffer and will get hurt. When I was drinking, everyone wanted me to stop. You can lead someone to water but you can't make them drink. And in the context of relationships, it's important that you do an inventory for yourself around the dynamic. Everyone has their flaws, and you have to ask yourself if this person never changes, do I still love that person and want to be with this person?

As for changing someone else's behavior, you have to let it go. You can be a lighthouse and live by example. But let go of any expectation that it's going to slide downhill and make them change. It's none of your business. It's not up to you to judge someone else's way of living. The minute you drop the judgment, it changes the dynamic. It's healthier.

Rich Roll: I think that all the trends suggest that plant-based is continuing to explode.And more people are jumping on the bandwagon, and I don't see any ceiling. With the pandemic, you are seeing companies like Beyond Meat have take over the fast-food industry...You can get Beyond at Carls Junior and it's about to launch at McDonald's. But does that mean everyone is going to make the switch to plant-based? Maybe not, but the Gen Zs are so much more a-tuned to the planetary implications. For them, they have no qualms at all with switching to meatless food. It's not a big deal. They just think: this is better, visa vis the planet.

As for the health of these meat alternatives, I dohave concerns about the meat and dairy analogs. It has never been easier to be a junk food vegan. You can get vegan ice cream that is just as sugar-filled, and not goodfor you. I myself delude myself that I can eat coconut cream ice cream because it's healthier. So I would like to see more people taking up a whole-food, plant-based diet. But these items are a good way to understand you can eat what you want and give up meat and dairy.

RR: You have to meet people where they're at.Andthere is a contingent of the vegan community that gets ruffled by the fast-food options that are meatless but not vegan, I get it. But if people are eating this stuff as a way in, to becoming more plant-based or plant-focused, then I think it's worth it.

Rich Roll. Do I have a Mantra? I do, and it harkens back to that question of how can you evolve?

My Mantra is: Mood Follows Action.

Rich Roll: What that means is we have this human tendency to try to make a change, and then we wait to do the hard, uncomfortable thing. We wait until we feel like doing it. But that day never comes. But to me,Mood Follows Actionmeans the action precedes the mod. If you wait to take the actionwhen you feel like it you may never do it. That helps me take the first step,like jumping into the cold water when I may not feel like it, or not hitting snooze on the alarm. And that approach has helped me in many contexts. It has helped me since I first heard it back in AA many years ago. Does the mood follow? Well, yes. You never do the thing and think, "I wish I hadn't done that."

Excerpt from:
Rich Roll On How to Evolve, Reach Your Goals: Take the First Step - The Beet

Human Behavior

Graphics: COVID-19 is bad now. According to many projections, it’s going to get worse – The Boston Globe

Modelers who are trying to look into the future have sketched out a wide variety of scenarios, from the optimistic to the horrific. But the general gist, said Alessandro Vespignani, professor of physics, computer science, and health science at Northeastern University, is that things are getting worse.

So what can we expect over the next few weeks? See the graphics below to better understand where we could be headed.

A key forecast says cases and deaths will stay high over the next several weeks.

An ensemble forecast from a lab at the University of Massachusetts Amherst collects and combines a number of models in order to draw on their collective wisdom. It foresees US weekly cases generally continuing at high levels, and weekly deaths gradually growing.

The onslaught of cases and deaths will take their toll. The cumulative number of US confirmed and probable coronavirus deaths will climb to about 317,000 by Dec. 26, the forecast says.

The UMass labs forecast, which it compiles weekly and shares with the CDC, only covers a four-week window to make it more accurate. This forecast covers the period from Nov. 28 to Dec. 26.

Any individual model might have a misfire from time to time so making an ensemble model is a way to catch those fluctuations and always have some solid, coherent forecast that is emerging from the consensus of the various different models, said Vespignani, whose own model is one of those factored into the ensemble forecast.

At the moment, the model is calling for action. Its telling us we need to do something, said Vespignani.

Massachusetts cases are expected to remain high, and deaths are expected to gradually rise

Massachusetts has been hit less hard than some other states. But it is in the midst of a second surge, and on Wednesday and Thursday reported its two highest one-day case totals so far, raising questions about where the state is headed.

The UMass model for Massachusetts calls for weekly cases to tick up slightly and plateau, and for weekly death counts to slowly grow.

The model predicts the state will tally around 11,656 confirmed and probable deaths by Dec. 26. As of Wednesday, the state had tallied 10,824 confirmed and probable deaths.

The ensemble model, it should be noted, was slow to catch on to the current wave of cases and deaths, and researchers emphasize that the actual numbers could range higher or lower than their predictions.

Vespignani said there is always an important footnote to models, particularly ones that attempt to look farther into the future: Human behavior can be key to what the future will hold.

With a weather forecast, he said, The winter storm will not care about the forecast. It will do its job.

For an epidemic, its different, he said. When people are forewarned, they can take precautions to keep themselves from becoming infected, and the future that the forecast predicted can be avoided.

The moment you project the next few weeks a drastic increase in cases, people will act, he said. Forecasts are a call to arms to change the trajectory of the epidemic.

Martin Finucane can be reached at martin.finucane@globe.com.

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Graphics: COVID-19 is bad now. According to many projections, it's going to get worse - The Boston Globe

Human Behavior

Interest Rates And Yield Curve Control, Part 4 – Seeking Alpha

In Part 4 of our series on interest rates and yield curve control, we will examine two charts and two related tables to help explain yield curve control and implications for the Treasurys market. The first three parts are available here:

The first chart and table will depict certain yield curves as of September 30, 2019. We start here because this date falls prior to the pandemic's impact on global monetary policies. Chart 2 and Table 2 are as of November 30, 2020, and are assembled from the same data sources and depict the same yield curves but after the US election and after the announcement of forthcoming vaccines. We're assuming that markets have made most of the adjustments for the COVID shock and its aftermath and the US election cycle. We acknowledge that a January 5 political event could alter these charts. We plan on a part 5 and will attempt to capture any significant changes in it.

The visible difference between the charts is dramatic but needs a basis of comparison or a reference. That is why we also include the tables to help clarify the story. For the tables we're building on the seminal work of Robert D. Laurent, published in a paper entitled "An interest rate-based indicator of monetary policy" (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, 1988). We're showing the difference (spread) between short-term and long-term policy interest rates in order to make clear the differences in yield curve slopes, so that we may compare various currencies and their central bank-managed yield curves. Notice how the US had the flattest yield curve in Table 1 and now has the steepest, as depicted in Table 2. Also notice how the euro and yen curves are essentially unchanged. Please remember that Laurent's work argues that the slope of the yield curve indicates the degree of monetary stimulus. If Laurent is correct, the US has become the most simulative from earlier being the least simulative while Japan and the eurozone have accomplished no additional stimulus with their added QE. Also notice that on September 30, 2019, China's was the most stimulative yield curve slope.

We could add other currencies, as we did in the early part of this series, but doing so here wouldn't add benefit for the reader. Including other currencies would only confirm what you can already see in these charts and tables. We plan to develop the other currencies in part 5. And we plan to show alternate ways to evaluate the slopes of these yield curves.

Here is the first chart and table series. Remember, the date selected is September 30, 2019 (using closing price data). At that time, the COVID pandemic was unknown. Monetary policy worldwide was on what folks thought to be a predictable path, and the economies of the world were on forecast tracks that shared a broad consensus. The impacts of tariffs and protectionism (including a tentative phase 1 trade deal) were assumed to be embedded in the market-based prices revealed in the September 30, 2019, chart and table. Markets were pricing in an expected continuation of the Trump administration policies into a Trump second term.

Chart 1. Yield Curve Control, September 30, 2019

Table 1. Yields, September 30, 2019

9/30/2019

Curve Name

US Treasury

US AAA MUNI

CNY

JPY

EUR

Short-Term T-Bill Rate (3M)

1.93

1.254

2.426

-0.301

-0.721

Long-Term Bond Rate (30YR)

2.114

2.11

3.77

0.331

-0.06

Difference

0.184

0.856

1.344

0.632

0.661

Please note that we have inserted the yield curve from World War 2 into these charts as a reference. It is not in the tables. We include that WW2 yield curve in this series because WW2 was the only time the Federal Reserve used its absolute monetary power to control the slope of the entire yield curve. The Fed did so by maintaining a "cap" on the interest rates at all maturities. The Fed might have permitted those rates to go lower than the cap. We do not know if they would have done so; that is a counterfactual. Interest rates during the WW2 era never exhibited downward pressures, so the cap was maintained for four years, and the rates never changed.

In Chart 1 note the WW2 yield curve (purple). Also notice the zero yield line (black). Those two lines are references for you. Let's discuss each.

In World War 2, the Federal Reserve instituted total yield curve control shortly after the Pearl Harbor attack. From 1942 through 1946, interest rates in the United States were essentially unchanged. For further background see our April 7 commentary, "WW2 versus WWC: The Doolittle Moment". Our references for this data include the famous Friedman-Schwartz treatise, A Monetary History of the United States: 1867-1960, and the extraordinary History of Interest Rates, by Sidney Homer. My personal view is that both of those treatises are required reading for anyone engaged in professional bond management and advising about the securities markets.

During the World War 2 era, the Fed maintained an unlimited bid at the very short end of the yield curve. The 90-day Treasury bill yield was 3/8ths of 1% and never changed. The rest of the yield curve was "managed" by the Fed to maintain control. Throughout that period, the Fed never had to face the prospect of rates falling below the cap. Global forces worked to avoid the "problem" of rates going lower than that. Remember that the world was on a gold standard in those days and that international flows were disrupted by war.

Now we have a different set of circumstances. All currencies are unanchored to gold. They float against each other. This is true whether the float is unrestricted or "dirty" due to intervention by a government or its central bank.

Here are Chart 2 and Table 2. Compare with the corresponding chart above and the dramatic shift is easily seen. Remember the World War 2 curve is the only constant and there for your reference.

Chart 2. Yield Curve Control, November 30, 2020

Table 2. Yields, November 30, 2020

Think about the yield curves that you see. There is the US dollar block, anchored by the US Treasury curve. And there is the euro block, which has its shorter-term anchor in negative rates, and the yen block, which also uses a negative-rate anchor. And there is China, the world's second-largest economy, which is in the early stages of opening up its finances and expanding a foreign footprint in monetary issues. Remember, China is just getting started. It has the world's second-largest domestic bond market, the onshore market. It is just beginning the process of developing an offshore or international bond market. We have also included the American AAA municipal bond curve, since it represents the highest-grade bond issuance in a $4 trillion market.

Those regions and countries (and their currencies) that are practicing full yield curve control include Japan (yen), Europe (euro), China (yuan), and others that we have mentioned earlier in this series but are not showing on the charts in Part 4. Note that in the modern day, it is not necessary to cap all maturities on the yield curve to achieve control. Today's unanchored fiat-currency financial world is quite different from the one that existed during and after World War 2.

In order to achieve yield curve control, it is not necessary for a central bank to anchor every maturity. The bank actually needs to anchor only two points on the yield curve. Then market agents will use forward-rate trading adjustments to stabilize the rest of the curve. The eurozone has now anchored two points on the yield curve with its policies of tiering and TLTRO. Japan has similarly anchored two maturities at two different rates. China is evolving in the same direction by internal control of interest rates in the onshore bond market. And the political shift in Hong Kong will now propel China into a more global role, as Hong Kong is its conduit to global financial channels. Beijing has adopted yield curve control for the yuan. For example, China recently issued a three-year-maturity bond with a rate above 3%. China has successfully sold a euro-denominated bond at negative interest rates. (See "China Borrows at Negative Rates for the First Time").

We believe that China will establish increasing credibility in global finance by implementing yield curve control. And it will demonstrate no default risk by never missing a payment. The yuan will have to adjust against other currencies in two ways. One adjustment mechanism will be the decisions of the Chinese government in its currency exchange-rate policy. The other will be the adjustment made by global market agents as they evolve expectations of China's behavior. Chinese policy makers are very well trained in monetary policy and fully understand what they have to do to gain credibility and to establish China in the global financial system.

That leaves only the United States practicing no formal yield-curve-control policy. However, we expect the Federal Reserve to use the weighted average maturity (WAM) method of establishing yield curve control. See our recent commentary on the Fed's path. The comparison of slopes or spreads demonstrates that the US dollar already has a term structure that is somewhat parallel to those of Japan and the eurozone. This happens because the global use of USD derivatives pressures those yield curves into a parallel structure.

US monetary policy anchors only from the short-term policy interest rate. The rest of US rates are adjusted by buyers and sellers in the global marketplace of US Treasury debt, and all other US debt tiers are derived from the Treasury curve. We have inserted the AAA municipal curve in our charts to demonstrate that alignment. Please note that this is the American curve of tax-free sovereign-state debt and is limited to those states with a AAA credit rating. Also note that global investors ignore the tax policy of the United States because it doesn't apply to them. Thus US Treasury interest is fully taxable to Americans while municipal bond interest is not taxed. Meanwhile, the interest rates are nearly the same. The tax on US Treasurys makes selected municipal bonds a bargain for an American taxpayer who is willing to exploit that opportunity.

As we have described in parts 1, 2, and 3 of this series, the influences on yield curves are global and employ currency hedges with the short-term rate and derivatives at longer maturities. Thus we can use our previous work to estimate that the US Treasury yield curve will eventually stabilize at or near an alignment with the other yield curves of the world. In time they will all approach a parallel term structure. If they don't, market agents will seize the arbitrage available to drive those rates into close alignment.

By this method we can project that the interest rates in the US Treasury curve are nearing that stable alignment. With a 10-year Treasury yield of about 1% (100 basis points), we can see that the alignment is close to completion. The same is true for other maturities. Could the 10-year note yield a full 1.5%? Yes, of course. Could it rise to 2%? Maybe, but it would take a lot of adjustment in the global derivative structures and significant economic outlook changes to get it there.

In other words, the Fed doesn't have to worry too much about an interest rate cap, as it did in the World War 2 era. And the Fed will see market agents create changes in the yield curve slope as the US yield curve aligns with those across the rest of the world, where full yield curve control is already in place.

The differentials among the yield curves of the world will be driven, in part, by the currency futures market's collective opinion about the foreign exchange ratios to come. We expect that situation to become the new normal in global interest rates as long as the major central banks of the world remain in their highly expansive mode, with stimulus-oriented policies. The most important player now is China. It has the skills and size and determination to achieve global stature in monetary affairs. And Chinese interest rates are now the highest among the major players in the world. As the Chinese offshore bond market opens up, the impact of China will become more and more visible.

Many politicians would bash China, and we see the blame-game politics of China bashing playing out every day. But the Chinese leadership is very patient, in our opinion. It will make every decision in a methodical manner and in China's best interest. It is not likely to engage in bullying or shrill politics. It doesn't have to.

Therefore, we conclude that China's default risk is near zero. The Chinese currency, the yuan, will gradually become more and more desired as an additional reserve holding. Those trading partners who are expanding their terms of trade with China will be the ones who enlarge their yuan reserves.

So, if yuan reserve usage expands in the post-Hong Kong-takeover era, which currencies are likely to be most at risk? That is the most difficult of questions. The obvious answers are the largest currency (the US dollar) and the second largest (the euro), but other currencies are also vulnerable, and exchange-rate changes are notoriously hard to forecast in both magnitude and timing. Here's a short news clip about China and Indonesia: Those two countries are moving from settling most of their trade in US dollars to settling the trade in the Chinese and Indonesian currencies. Hat tip to Paul Schulte for the YouTube link. Let's just examine this one item for a second. Both countries end up needing more of the other country's currency as a reserve. Neither country needs as many US dollar reserves as it did before this change in settlement payments. Please remember that this is just one example. Also remember that the original reason for maintaining reserves of other countries' currencies is to facilitate settlements of terms of trade.

In summary, we've delivered a four-part series to show the sequence of elements that leads to yield curve control and the influence of the derivative mechanism now at work in the world as pandemic-driven global central bank activity unfolds. It is impossible to know how long these trends will last, as the pandemic's effects are going to be determined by science and medicine and human behavior and the resulting rate of disease spread and deaths. But we do expect that the massive global monetary expansion will be with us for many years. Right now, every major central bank in the world is on the "easy" side when you measure easy by the size of the balance sheet of the central bank. We do not expect that policy stance to change for at least several years, if not longer.

We at Cumberland hope this series has been helpful to readers. It helps explain to our actively managed bond portfolio clients why we are engaged in barbell strategies now and why we think that the 40-year bull market in US Treasury notes and bonds is coming to an end. We're working on part 5.

We will close with a list of suggested additional readings that may add to the discussion.

Original post

Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.

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Interest Rates And Yield Curve Control, Part 4 - Seeking Alpha

Human Behavior

Mental Health Related Movies Receive Good Reviews – Theravive

In a recent study, researchers surveyed 200 movies released between 1977 and 2019 with content about mental illness and found box office returns were higher than average. Those same movies received 15% of Oscar nominations during the time period. While the article still needs peer-review, the findings show that we, as a society, are doing a better job of talking about mental health.

Jolene Caufield, MS with Healthy Howard,agrees with the implications of the findings, that mental health-related media is a byproduct of the public's awareness of the sensitive subject of psychological illnesses. The cinematic media has a reputation for illustrating human behavior and the circumstances surrounding it, said Caulfield. It's only fitting that since the world is entering a destigmatizing era, the media will offer their own version to capture audience interest. This era and the landscape of our current cinema allows for more non-subjective portrayals with improved insights about the issue.

Dr. Michael G. Wetter, PsyD, adds that movies that pertain to mental health issues are more popular and successful because it is a subject that most people can relate to in some way. He explains, It taps into our own experience in dealing with emotions, conflict, and interpersonal relationships. Watching themes associated with mental health play out in a narrative may help us feel that resolution is possible; it provides the opportunity to have an emotional connection without anything required in return.

Because they imply resolution and healing is possible, these movies also give a way to explore and gain a deeper understanding of other people and why they do what they do. Jason Drake LCSW-Ssays movies can provide a safe space to try to understand the struggles that we may experience ourselves and why we do what we do. For a person who is insecure, leaving a movie theater after watching someone portray and conquer insecurity gives hope. For someone battling depression, to see the inner experience shared so precisely byanother, helps that person feel not so alone. We connect with the characters on the screen and project our struggles onto them. In times of difficulty, we get to feel what it feelslike to overcome, if only for that moment. Movies may inspire hope which hope can lead to action.

But writer and director Ryan Lambert has doubts about whether the mental health content is what makes these movies do so well. He wonders if they receive critical acclaim more so than other topics simply because of the subject itself, not any higher level of filmmaking ability. These social issue movies are perceived as better because they are about important ideas, said Lambert, rather than being judged as better on their own terms. Media and award institutions like the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences eat up these prestige pictures, showering them with praise based on their ideological stance instead of their aesthetic value.

Joy Cheriel Brown, a filmmaker with Third Person Omniscient Productions, shares experience with psychosis when she was 18 years old. She doubted whether she would herself again or accomplish her screenwriting dreams. Brown said, I vowed that if I ever figured it out, I would make a film about it to help other young people, which I did with my short film, N.O.S., which sold to ShortsTV this year. For many people, mental illness is stigmatized and they dont understand it. People either relate because they also have a mental illness, or people are curious about it and it fascinates them because it scares them that it could happen to anyone. The success of films about mental illness is not a fluke. Much of my work focuses on it because Im in a unique position of actually living with schizoaffective disorder and I can advocate for those who live with mental illness, and educate those others who dont understand it.

Whether movies are truly top-notch or rated well because of their subject is up for debate, but as more people, like Brown, share their personal experiences, it keeps mental health at the forefront of peoples minds.Jay Shifman, host of the Choose Your Strugglepodcast notes that we all want to feel accepted.Shifman says, stigma still exists around things that are not only perfectly normal but relatively common so people seek other ways to have their questions answered and feel that theyre not different or strange. Simply knowing something is okay enough to cover in a movie can decrease feelings of isolation.

Categories: Mass Media , Mental Health Awareness | Tags: entertainment

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Mental Health Related Movies Receive Good Reviews - Theravive

Human Behavior

The Real Reason Why Drivers Are Convinced They Can’t Do Without Cars – Streetsblog New York

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The pandemic has made car addiction three times worse.

Drivers are valuing their access to a private vehicle during the pandemic more than three times as much as they did before COVID-19 but they can be persuaded to get around without a car with simple changes to incentivize other modes, a new study finds.

To understand why some Americans still choose to pay to maintain a private vehicle even when robust public transportation networks are right outside their door, researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology surveyed around 1,000 people each in the transit-rich cities of Washington, Chicago, and Seattle. (They also spoke with 1,000 people in mostly-car-dominated Dallas, though for the record, its light rail system boasts surprisingly high ridership.) Then the researchers offered the subjects a series of hypothetical cash bribes in randomized amounts to give up their cars for up to a year and also asked them whether theyd take the same deal if theyd been offered thoseincentives prior to the pandemic.

And the offers werent limited to cold, hard cash alone. Later in the survey, the researchers tempted respondents with access to a free, ubiquitously available ride-hailing service in exchange for giving up their private vehicles essentially, a gratis private car service that might sometimes require a very brief wait.

What the researchers found was astonishing: Even prior to the pandemic, drivers said theyd need a whopping $11,200 on average to entice them to give up immediate, 24/7 access to their personal cars. Even if they had a free, high-quality e-taxi at their beck and call, the respondents said theyd need around $6,500 in compensation to give up their car ownership. And during COVID-19, they said theyd need $3,300 every single month thats $39,600 over the course of 12 months just to say goodbye to an object that already costs the average U.S. drivers $9,300 a year just to finance, fuel, insure, store, and maintain.

Put another way: weve created a society thats so paralyzingly car-dependent (and so convinced of the myth of COVID-19 risks on public transit, not to mention taxis and other modes) that the average American earning the median income of $68,703 would need a cash payout of the equivalent of 71 percent of her total annual pay in order to even considergiving up a private vehicle during a year-long pandemic.

And even without a virus, that same would-be car-free commuter would still ask for a cash payout equivalent to the cost of an average years worth ofgroceries,health insurance, andelectric bills, plus a round trip flight to Paris.

How option value helps decode the psychology of American car dependenceThe finding is a fascinating example of how human behavior is shaped by the power of option value a wonky economics term that refers to the dollar value that people place on having the option to use a good or service if they chose to do so, as distinct from the money someone will pay toactuallyuse that thing.

The term is usually applied to stuff like a residents willingness to pay a tax to maintain a local park he or she might only visit once in a blue moon, but option value is a powerful and under-examined feature of consumer psychology, too. And it definitely helps explain drivers willingness to spend an average of 9.2 percent of their household income on a hunk of metal that sits parked 95 percent of the time and why, during the age of mass quarantines, work from home, and historically low vehicle miles travelled, they value their wheels even more.

When we isolated how much drivers valued car ownership on its own, [independent of the value they placed on actually being able to drive that car], we found that it was about $6,500 in a typical year before the pandemic, said Joanna Moody, research program manager for MITs Mobility Systems Center and one of the authors on the study. That means only 58 percent of the perceived value of car ownership actually comes from ownership itself not use.

So if drivers dont value their cars simply because theyre useful and often, outright necessary to navigate our auto-dependent cities, why do they insist on pouring money down the gas tank, even if they live in a transit-rich city like D.C.? Moody says that option value as well as intangible factors like social status, privacy, and emotional and symbolic connections to car ownership all play a role and right now, the terrifying uncertainty of the pandemic is a major factor, too.

Car ownership is a security blanket, Moody says. The more risk-averse we are, and the more unpredictable our travel needs are, the more attractive the flexibility, reliability, and control that comes with car ownership becomes. Especially right now, people are asking themselves: what if I need to get to the hospital at a moments notice? What if transit service is cut because of the pandemic and I cant make it to work? Its really about having the option of being able to take the car when they might need it thats so important to people even if they dont actually do it much at all.

How to lower the value of easy driving

Of course, even without a major public health disaster, our car-dominated places essentially force Americans to maintain a constant state of disaster-preparedness hemorrhaging money to maintain massive overkill vehicles that can meet our every conceivable mobility need, despite what they cost our families and our society.

But if our cities had networks of strong mass and shared transportation options that could collectively make us feel confident we could get anywhere we need to go with comfort and ease, experts think could help level the playing field.

Image: PinterestUltimately, how we make our transportation lifestyle choices isnt just about our day-to-day travel, Moody said. Its about those extremes, those What if scenarios: What if I need to travel somewhere further away for a weekend? What if I get sick suddenly and need to visit a clinic?

Of course, the lesson of option value isnt that we simply need to write drivers checks to choose more sustainable ways to get around. Moody saysIts more about making all other modes more convenient and attractive in every way and that includes land-use reforms that put both basic anddesirable destinations within easy reach by foot, bike or transit, rather than simply making that bus ride to your far-flung workplace a tiny bit faster or cheaper.

In the longer term, its really about land-use planning shaping our transportation systems to be less car-dependent in a comprehensive way, Moody said. For the majority of Americans, buying a car is a rational choice, and thats because weve built the system to be that wayOur study focused on the value we place on car ownership and car use, but we also looked at how people valued other urban mobility options in their cities, and each of the alternative modes were valued at under a $100 each or less. Thats transit access, ride-hailing, bike share, scootershare everything. Were a long way from providing a package of transportation alternatives in cities that, together, give consumers the same value as the private car.

Fortunately, wecan raise the option value on sustainable travel by improving service quality and coverage and even truly revolutionary public investments in other modes would be hell of a lot cheaper than continuing to subsidize driving like we do now. Andwith countless human lives and the fate of the planet at stake, we must do everything we can.

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The Real Reason Why Drivers Are Convinced They Can't Do Without Cars - Streetsblog New York

Human Behavior

Human Behavior Study Identifies Four Basic Personality …

Summary: 90 percent of the population can be classified into one of four main personality types, and of those, 30 percent fall under the envious personality type, a new study reports.

Source: Carlos III University of Madrid.

A study on human behavior has revealed that 90 percent of the population can be classified into four basic personality types: optimistic, pessimistic, trusting and envious. However, the latter of the four types, envious, is the most common, with 30 percent compared to 20 percent for each of the other groups.

This is one of the main conclusions of a study recently published in the journal, Science Advances by researchers from Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, together with colleagues from the universities of Barcelona, Rovira i Virgili and Zaragoza. The study analyzed the responses of 541 volunteers to hundreds of social dilemmas, with options leading to collaboration or conflict with others, based on individual or collective interests.

Specifically, this work is part of game theory, a branch of mathematics with applications in sociology and economics, which examines the behavior of people when they face a dilemma and have to make decisions. These decisions will have different consequences which will also depend on what the other party involved decides to do. Those involved are asked to participate in pairs, these pairs change, not only in each round, but also each time the game changes. So, the best option could be to cooperate or, on the other hand, to oppose or betray .. In this way, we can obtain information about what people do in very different social situations, explained one of the authors of the study, Anxo Snchez, who is a professor in GISC (Grupo Interdisciplinar de Sistemas Complejos / Interdisciplinary Group of Complex Systems), which is part of the Department of Mathematics at Universidad Carlos III de Madrid (UC3M).

According to Yamir Moreno, who is the coordinator of the Cosnet group (Grupo de Redes y Sistemas Complejos / Networks and Complex Systems Group) at BIFI (Instituto de Biocomputacin y Fsica de Sistemas Complejos / Institute of Biocomputation and the Physics of Complex Systems) at the Universidad de Zaragoza, and also president of the Sociedad de Sistemas Complejos (Complex Systems Society), The results go against certain theories; the one which states that humans act purely rationally for example, and, therefore, they should be taken into consideration in redesigning social and economic policies, as well as those involved in cooperation. He goes on to say that, these types of studies are important because they improve existing theories on human behavior by giving them an experimental base.

After carrying out this kind of social experiment, the researchers developed a computer algorithm which set out to classify people according to their behavior. The computer algorith organized 90% of people into four groups: the largest group, accounting for 30%, being the Envious those who dont actually mind what they achieve, as long as theyre better than everyone else; next are the Optimists who believe that they and their partner will make the best choice for both of them on 20%. Also on 20% are the Pessimists who select the option which they see as the lesser of two evils and the Trusting group who are born collaborators and who will always cooperate and who dont really mind if they win or lose.

There is a fifth, undefined group, representing 10%, which the algorithm is unable to classify in relation to a clear type of behavior. The researchers argue that this allows them to infer the existence of a wide range of subgroups made up of individuals who do not respond in a determined way to any of the outlined models.

Anxo Snchez explains this with an example of a specific dilemma: Two people can hunt deer together, but if they are alone, they can only hunt rabbits. The person belonging to the Envious group will choose to hunt rabbits because he or she will be at least equal to the other hunter, or maybe even better; the Optimist will choose to hunt deer because that is the best option for both hunters; the Pessimist will go for rabbits because that way he or she is sure to catch something; and the hunter who belongs to the Trusting group will cooperate and choose to hunt deer, without a second thought.

Experiment based on citizen participation

The study is based on an experiment organized by Barcelona City Council and the Barcelona Citizen Science Office, within the framework of the DAU festival, also in Barcelona. One of main principles of this study is the fact that the experiment has been developed in such a way to encourage the participation of citizens within the framework of one of the citys public activities, explains Josep Perell, leader of the group, OpenSystems in the Condensed Matter Physics Department at Universitat de Barcelona, and also coordinator of the Barcelona Citizen Science Office. In this sense, the results have been shared with the participants, thus, the subjects of the study become active participants in the research, concludes the researcher.

The really funny thing is that the classification was made by a computer algorithm which could have obtained a larger number of groups, but which has, in fact, produced an excellent rating in four personality types, explains Yamir Moreno. Jordi Duch, a researcher at Universitat Rovira i Virgili in Tarragona, and one of the authors of this study, goes on to explain, This type of classification algorithm has previously been used with success in other fields, such as biology. However, its application to the study of human behavior is quite revolutionary, given that previous works prefixed the behaviors expected before the experiment was carried out, instead of allowing an external system to then automatically give us information about which groupings were most logical. This is of capital importance because it isnt something imposed by the researchers. The objective of using mathematics was precisely to guarantee impartiality, adds Anxo Snchez.

Previously, the experiments were performed by dozens of people. Now, with this platform, it is possible to significantly increase the volume of participants in the study, as well as being able to test using the heterogeneous population; this also allows us to record much more specific data on how the participants behave during the experiment. This has opened up the door to setting up much more complex tests than those that have been carried out so far in this field, says Jordi Duch.

In the same way, the research results shed light in relation to what moves the collective or individual interest in the processes of negotiation, and as such, it is useful for the management of business, organizations or for political reformulation. Furthermore, it also serves to open the door to improving machinery, to make robots more humanized, concludes Anxo Sanchez.

About this psychology research article

Source: Francisco Javier Alonso Carlos III University of MadridImage Source: NeuroscienceNews.com image is credited to UC3M.Original Research: Abstract for Humans display a reduced set of consistent behavioral phenotypes in dyadic games by Julia Poncela-Casasnovas, Mario Gutirrez-Roig, Carlos Gracia-Lzaro, Julian Vicens, Jess Gmez-Gardees, Josep Perell, Yamir Moreno, Jordi Duch and Angel Snchez in Science Advances. Published online August 5 2016 doi:10.1126/sciadv.1600451

Cite This NeuroscienceNews.com Article

[cbtabs][cbtab title=MLA]Carlos III University of Madrid. Human Behavior Study Identifies Four Basic Personality Types. NeuroscienceNews. NeuroscienceNews, 7 October 2016.<https://neurosciencenews.com/behavior-personality-types-5238/>.[/cbtab][cbtab title=APA]Carlos III University of Madrid. (2016, October 7). Human Behavior Study Identifies Four Basic Personality Types. NeuroscienceNews. Retrieved October 7, 2016 from https://neurosciencenews.com/behavior-personality-types-5238/%5B/cbtab%5D%5Bcbtab title=Chicago]Carlos III University of Madrid. Human Behavior Study Identifies Four Basic Personality Types. https://neurosciencenews.com/behavior-personality-types-5238/ (accessed October 7, 2016).[/cbtab][/cbtabs]

Abstract

Humans display a reduced set of consistent behavioral phenotypes in dyadic games

Socially relevant situations that involve strategic interactions are widespread among animals and humans alike. To study these situations, theoretical and experimental research has adopted a game theoretical perspective, generating valuable insights about human behavior. However, most of the results reported so far have been obtained from a population perspective and considered one specific conflicting situation at a time. This makes it difficult to extract conclusions about the consistency of individuals behavior when facing different situations and to define a comprehensive classification of the strategies underlying the observed behaviors. We present the results of a lab-in-the-field experiment in which subjects face four different dyadic games, with the aim of establishing general behavioral rules dictating individuals actions. By analyzing our data with an unsupervised clustering algorithm, we find that all the subjects conform, with a large degree of consistency, to a limited number of behavioral phenotypes (envious, optimist, pessimist, and trustful), with only a small fraction of undefined subjects. We also discuss the possible connections to existing interpretations based on a priori theoretical approaches. Our findings provide a relevant contribution to the experimental and theoretical efforts toward the identification of basic behavioral phenotypes in a wider set of contexts without aprioristic assumptions regarding the rules or strategies behind actions. From this perspective, our work contributes to a fact-based approach to the study of human behavior in strategic situations, which could be applied to simulating societies, policy-making scenario building, and even a variety of business applications.

Humans display a reduced set of consistent behavioral phenotypes in dyadic games by Julia Poncela-Casasnovas, Mario Gutirrez-Roig, Carlos Gracia-Lzaro, Julian Vicens, Jess Gmez-Gardees, Josep Perell, Yamir Moreno, Jordi Duch and Angel Snchez in Science Advances. Published online August 5 2016 doi:10.1126/sciadv.1600451

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Human Behavior Study Identifies Four Basic Personality ...

Human Behavior

ABC27 Exclusive: Current COVID-19 deaths in Pennsylvania more than triple what CDC expected a month ago – ABC27

HARRISBURG, Pa. (WHTM) The fall resurgence of COVID-19 was widely expected. The extent of it, as measured by CDC forecasts as recent as a month ago after the surge, as its also known, began was not.

An ABC27 analysis found the CDC, in early November looking ahead then toward early December underestimated the now-known actual death counts by two-thirds, in terms of what the CDC considered a likely scenario.

Even its near-worst-case scenario (technically the upper end of its 95-percent confidence interval) was less than two-thirds of reality. The CDCs forecasts, in turn, rely on the work of 36 other organizations from Ivy League universities to companies like Microsoft that meet the CDCs data quality requirements.

As of Nov. 2, 2020, the CDCs midpoint expectation for weekly deaths now was about 225. It was 95 percent confident weekly deaths wouldnt exceed about 375. The real number, counting the 194 new deaths reported for Tuesday alone? 661.

Why were the forecasts off by so much? Possibly because the biggest variable of all isnt molecular.

In essence, models that do this kind of prediction, you have to predict human behavior, which is hard, said Dr. Mark Roberts, a professor of health policy and management at the University of Pittsburghs Graduate School of Public Health and also director of the universitys Public Health Dynamics Laboratory.

And human behavior, Roberts said, has been unhelpful.

The cases and the spread is because were, you know, COVID-tired. Were not social distancing. Were losing the intensity with which were supposed to socially distance, Roberts said.

He said this tool, developed by Massachusetts General Hospital at Harvard Medical School, is useful for gauging different pandemic outcomes based on different inputs public policy, human behavior and so forth and would have done a good job predicting the current state of affairs, given the correct assumptions about behaviors such as Thanksgiving travel.

Asked Tuesday whether the degree of the surge has caught the PA Department of Health by surprise, Michael Huff, the departments director of testing and contact tracing, said were not surprised by anything we see anymore but agreed with the idea that the surge has been supercharged by conducive behavior, including Thanksgiving gatherings.

Ominously, considering the current numbers, he said we wont see those cases for another week, maybe 10 days.

Hospitalizations and deaths, in turn, typically lag diagnoses by another week or two. This is a very dangerous time, Huff added.

Here are Pennsylvania COVID-19 deaths per day for the most recent seven days available:

Day-to-day variance occurs partly because not all deaths are reported the day they occur. Epidemiologists consider seven-day moving averages, on the other hand, to be more stable representations of reality.

One major difference between the current surge and the first surge, in March and April, is that the majority of deaths during the first surge occurred in long-term care facilities.

Indeed, despite a recent reversal of this trend, fully 64-percent of COVID-19 deaths in Pennsylvania 6,885 out of 10,757 deaths since the pandemic began have occurred in what the state classifies as nursing and personal care facilities.

But now? Of the 180 deaths reported Monday, just 30 or 17 percent occurred in such facilities.

Although a Department of Health spokeswoman couldnt confirm this, the ABC27 analysis found a high probability that the state is now setting new COVID-era highs for daily deaths due to community spread outside long-term care facilities.

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ABC27 Exclusive: Current COVID-19 deaths in Pennsylvania more than triple what CDC expected a month ago - ABC27

Human Behavior

Three Science-Backed Ways To Increase Covid-19 Compliance (And One Way Not To) – Forbes

BERLIN, GERMANY - DECEMBER 02: Police officers take security measures as a group against Covid-19 ... [+] measures named "Querdenken 30 " gather in front of ZDF television channel's building located at Unter den Linden street to protest media outlets in Berlin, Germany on December 02, 2020. Protesters hold banners and chant slogans as they march in front of buildings of media outlets such as Axel Springer, Funke, Tegesspiegel, Berliner Verlag and Tageszeitung. (Photo by Abdulhamid Hosbas/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

Since the beginning of the pandemic, psychologists and social scientists have been working diligently to understand the best ways to encourage people to comply with Covid-19 directives.

A new working paper published by researchers at the University of Amsterdam suggests they are having an easier time figuring out what doesnt work than what does.

It turns out, for instance, that deterrence efforts such as punishment severity and punishment certainty do little to move the needle.

Deterrence, in the form of both punishment severity and punishment certainty, is not linked to compliance in the majority of studies, state the researchers, led by Dr. Emmeke Kooistra. This indicates that fining people for not following the Covid-19 social distancing measures the major intervention for authorities to increase compliance will most likely not result in more compliance.

They hedged this conclusion a bit, saying it would take more research to fully understand the relationship between deterrence measures and behavioral compliance.

The critical question, however, is what can be done right now to increase compliance. Analyzing the combined results of 45 studies conducted during the first wave of the pandemic, the authors offer the following three suggestions.

#1. Self-interest reigns supreme

People are more likely to comply with social distancing directives to the extent that they view Covid-19 as a serious threat. To be exact, 22 out of the 34 studies that measured the perceived threat of the virus found it to be a significant driver of compliance behavior.

People comply because they see a benefit in doing so: it keeps themselves, friends and family, and possibly society at large safe from the disease, state the researchers. For authorities, this means that they should keep informing the public of the risk of the disease, and especially in between peaks when fear of disease may reduce temporarily.

Also playing into the self-interest equation is peoples age. Older people, in general, are more likely to comply with social distancing guidelines than younger people. They also happen to be more susceptible to the viruss negative effects.

Psychologists and behavioral economists are quick to point out the limits of rational self-interest as an explanation for human behavior, however. In this case, it fails to explain why women exhibit higher coronavirus fear and greater compliance than men even though data show that men have higher Covid-19 mortality rates than women. It also fails to explain why punishments such as fines havent been all that effective at increasing social distancing compliance.

#2. Psychological factors are an important part of the equation

The researchers found a strong relationship between the personality trait of impulsivity and Covid-19 compliance. Impulsive individuals were far less likely to follow social distancing guidelines.

They also found that negative emotional states such as depression decreased the likelihood that people would keep up with social distancing directives.

The finding that people with feelings of depression are more likely to violate the rules should be a warning for policymakers that they should not disregard mental health in their attempt at preserving physical health, state the researchers.

#3. Situational factors also make a difference

Perhaps the best way to encourage people to remain compliant is by tapping into the power of social norms. Of the studies analyzed, two-thirds showed that people who were more likely to see others complying with the rules, or who were more likely to feel socially judged by not complying, were more compliant overall.

People who believe that others follow the rules are more likely follow the rules themselves, state the researchers. Accordingly, [policymakers] may benefit from emphasizing the group of people that do follow the measures, as opposed to the group that does not.

Conclusion. Until a vaccine is ready, behavioral change is the best weapon we have in the fight against Covid-19. The authors conclude, These insights provide vital theoretical lessons about crisis-induced behavioral change and compliance with policy measures.

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Three Science-Backed Ways To Increase Covid-19 Compliance (And One Way Not To) - Forbes