Category Archives: Human Behavior

Human Behavior

Here are the 8 tech trends you’ll see this year (and decade) – KSL.com

LAS VEGAS Weve witnessed a technological revolution over the last few decades.

The smartphone has fundamentally changed the way we live and the way our brains function. What will this next decade bring? Self-driving cars? Incredibly fast internet? One streaming service to rule them all?

Were talking about technologys influence on human behavior, Consumer Technology Association vice president of research, Steve Koenig, said during a presentation on coming tech trends at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas Sunday.

Here are the eight tech trends youll see this year, and likely throughout the upcoming decade.

The last decade was all about IoT, or the internet of things essentially, everyday devices that connect to the internet. This decade, however, will be focused on the intelligence of things as our devices continue becoming smarter via artificial intelligence.

And we wont even have to use a different acronym.

This trend will usher in enhanced machine learning as AI learns to take larger data sets and analyze them in real time. Well also see AI appear in our smart home devices and televisions as they learn to anticipate our habits, recognize objects and respond to them much like your streaming service of choice knows your favorite shows and suggests similar ones.

Well also see AI advance speech and facial recognition technology, including biometrics, that will likely play a significant (and possibly controversial) role in security. Even McDonald's is jumping into the space: A new research and development lab in Silicon Valley is working to bring voice assistants to the drive-through.

In 2019, mobile networks across the globe deployed 5G the fifth generation of wireless technology, purported to bring superfast speeds that will change the world. But 5G hasnt changed things quite as quickly as promised. In fact, the most widespread versions of 5G arent much better than 4G.

But that probably wont last for too long. Industry analysts predict that 133 million 5G handset units will be shipped out by 2023 (compared to 2020s 20.2 million), and innovators at CES are scrambling to show how their tech will exhibit 5Gs potential.

As 5G develops, it could make tasks like remote manufacturing, training, health care and even surgery possible. It could also enhance traffic safety and control, smart grid automation and industrial application.

Perhaps one of the most surprising industries 5G is set to disrupt, however, is agriculture. The technology could make possible automated farming equipment and allow squadrons of drones to fly over fields while using sensors to look for things like plant disease or areas that need more water.

Companies like Disney and Apple launched their own media streaming services last year, and well see even more in 2020, like NBCUniversals Peacock or Quibi (a mobile subscription service for short-form video). In fact, our streaming subscriptions might end up being as hefty as our cable bills were, and well be back where we started.

But at least well enjoy what were paying for in cinematic style, because our TVs are likely to get larger as time goes on. Well also see an advancement in 4K and 8K TVs and content.

Augmented, virtual and mixed reality (or XR) will advance as industries find uses for them. Theyre already popular in workplace and healthcare training, as well as industries like architecture, which benefits from being able to virtually show building plans.

The norm for VR is something called six degrees of freedom, meaning users can have a 360 glimpse into the virtual world rather than a simple look up, down and to the side. AR is being implemented into a variety of different products and content, and AR glasses are becoming much sleeker and more user-friendly.

Esports garnered $1 billion in revenue in 2019, and thats only likely to continue in 2020 and the decade to come. Manufacturers have also started creating more immersive gaming, such as better graphics cards and special gaming microphones and headsets that give users an immersive audio experience.

Were also seeing a rise in cloud-based gaming, with companies like Apple, Google and Microsoft launching their own cloud-based gaming platforms.

Were finally at that inflection point where electrification (of vehicles) makes a lot of sense, Koenig said. In fact, I think this is the electric decade for vehicles.

The automotive industry has been going in that direction for a while, but innovation in battery systems, faster charging, longer charges, electric motor innovation and better (and more) charging systems are finally making electric vehicles truly feasible and sensible for consumers.

Well also see more commercial deployments of self-driving vehicles, Koenig believes. Technological innovation in the space has made driverless cars not just a dream of the future, but an achievable reality.

Transportation is also likely to change with C-V2X technology, which stands for cellular vehicle to everything. C-V2X takes anonymous data from connected car fleets so cities and towns can have a better understanding of where infrastructure repairs are needed or which areas become most congested. In fact, well be seeing, and have already partially seen, something similar in Utah.

Finally, well see more innovations in other mobility devices like scooters. So, dont expect those to go away anytime soon.

Health, wellness, fitness and sleep tech is not new, but it is changing. Sleep technology, for example, will no longer just track sleep but is working to enhance it via biometrics by tracking and analyzing how your body acts during the night.

Baby tech is also huge, and well see a lot of smart cribs that claim to help babies sleep through the night by sensing their stirring and rocking them back to sleep.

Telemedicine is also likely to advance rapidly thanks to technologies that allow doctors to diagnose their patients, and even perform surgery, remotely.

There are robots for nearly every task from making bread to folding your laundry. Social and educational robots are also becoming increasingly popular as they act as companions, caretakers and teachers for their owners. Some robots are teaching children coding or foreign languages, tailored to their individual learning style and pace.

Well likely see robots continue to advance as we find more real-world uses for them.

I must have this #CES2019#foldimatepic.twitter.com/7488hDKyMv

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Here are the 8 tech trends you'll see this year (and decade) - KSL.com

Human Behavior

Researchers Into ‘Deepfakes’ Highlight Failings of New California Legislation – East Bay Express

When a video depicting real people doing or saying things they never did or said goes viral, the consequences can be disastrous. Such malign scenes can destroy reputations, place elections in peril, put national or international security at risk, and threaten the very concept of truth.

Deceptive visual and audio media manipulated with artificial intelligence have long proliferated in online pornography, and are increasingly seen in political commentary or advertising. The Amsterdam cybersecurity company Deeptrace found that, during seven months in 2019, such so-called "deepfakes" increased 84 percent. Reddit holds the dubious honor of being the first known site for deepfakes, but YouTube, Facebook, Twitter and other social media platforms are not far behind.

Even "cheapfakes" that don't use artificial intelligence can be harmful. Consider the May 2019 video that slowed the speech of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. The simple, low-tech distortion made Pelosi appear inebriated or otherwise impaired. Despite rapid detection of the doctored video, the damage was done.

As November's U.S. presidential election approaches, making social media platforms more accountable for how their online content can be used to mislead the public has become a critical issue. In California, last year Gov. Gavin Newsom signed into law AB 730, known as the "Anti-Deepfake Bill." Aimed at stemming the tide of deepfakes featuring politicians, the new law is viewed as admirable but imperfect by people concerned about the issue.

The law, which is only in effect until the end of 2022, prohibits the distribution with actual malice of "materially deceptive audio or video media" involving a candidate for public office in the 60 days prior to an election. The law permits candidates to go to court to suppress such media and sue for damages, and exempts content that "constitutes satire or parody," as well as news organizations that broadcast such materials if they acknowledge questions about the material's authenticity.

Observers say the law's flaws include its expiration date, the 60-day window of applicability, the provision allowing deepfakes to remain active until malice is proven, and inadequate enforcement procedures to correct debunked video or audio content and to alert the public regarding deepfakes already posted or gone viral. Most notably, it exempts online platforms from responsibility due to Section 230 of the federal Communications Decency Act, which prevents such platforms from being sued for allowing users to post content. This final limitation could only be corrected by Congress.

Fortunately, the situation has attracted the attention of smart people dedicated to promoting the ethical use of new technologies. Among those leading the charge are Brandie Nonnecke and Camille Crittenden of UC Berkeley's CITRIS and Banatao Institute. CITRIS and the Banatao Institute merged under one name in 2016 and have for 20 years enabled leading researchers at UC Berkeley, UC Davis, UC Merced, and UC Santa Cruz to address information technology development and applications for the public good.

"My concern is that people may be hesitant to believe anything they see," said Nonnecke, CITRIS Policy Lab co-founder; a fellow at the World Economic Forum; and an expert in communication technology, Internet governance, and civic participation. "That's good because they're careful, but bad because they may lose the perception that something is true by jumping too quickly to thinking everything is a lie." Furthermore, she added, hesitancy and disbelief can be exacerbated by actors yelling "deepfake" about any video ... and then there's no drive-back-the-lie vehicle for detecting and broadcasting truth.

"Who would you then trust?" she said. "Who can determine if it's true or not? The platforms aren't positioned to do that. Most often now it's a lawsuit or a third party verifying a video. But can we trust them? The biggest danger is a video that's actually true, showing a politician doing something illegal, and now no one thinks it's true. The truth won't come out."

Crittenden, the executive director of CITRIS, a co-founder of the Policy Lab, and former executive director of the Human Rights Center at Berkeley Law, said that by casting doubt on authentic media content, deepfakes threaten democracy. Quick to acknowledge that social media platforms have placed restrictions around sex trafficking and actively support developing tools to detect manipulated media, she nonetheless said it's not enough.

"With Facebook, they've said they're not taking political ads down," she said. "Twitter has said they will not accept political advertising. But if they won't curb or flag blatantly false information, perhaps they shouldn't be in the business of political advertising at all."

Just Monday, after Crittenden was interviewed, Facebook announced that it is banning deepfakes from its platform. But its ban fell short of including clips edited to change the order of a speaker's words, or parody or satire, two categories of content protected by the First Amendment. The policy also appeared not to cover content such as the Pelosi video. A spokesman for Pelosi released a statement to The Washington Post that the company "wants you to think the problem is video-editing technology, but the real problem is Facebook's refusal to stop the spread of disinformation."

Content such as the Pelosi video, and another infamous one in which CNN White House correspondent Jim Acosta's actions were made to seem abrupt and violent by speeding it up, is especially pernicious. "The content isn't as sophisticated and doesn't take a programmer or AI software for facial swapping," Crittenden said. "It's easier to accomplish and to proliferate, perhaps even harder to detect, which means there could be more of it. It could spread quickly and easily." Depending on how often a video is copied or shared, even taking down the original post leaves iterations to spread. "The creator isn't going to pull it back and the platforms aren't liable so there's no obligation to even alert users there's a false video. Unless there's violence, of course."

Nonnecke said social media platforms are providing CITRIS with data and actual deepfakes that will allow researchers to identify model features. Errors in videos already offer clues. The speaker in a deepfake will appear strange: for example, mouth patterns and timing may not match words. Another simple detection approach is algorithms designed to flag videos that suddenly go viral. "Why did that happen?" Nonnecke asked. "Shocking content? Look at those first and decide if it's true or not."

She called California's new law admirable, but only "a baby step." As detection technology improves, it chases a moving target. Voice- and face-matching technology are developing rapidly. "If I get a call or Skype sounding or looking like my mother asking for my Social Security number, I might give it to her and then find out it wasn't my mother," Nonnecke said. People with limited resources are especially vulnerable. "People who don't have the means to have a software plugin to put on a device to detect deepfakes; yes, they might not be able to afford protection."

Crittenden believes that CITRIS can have the greatest impact by asking researchers and stakeholders to focus on ethical practices, offering control and detection recommendations to social media companies and the public, disseminating materials to politicians and legislative entities, and teaching digital literacy to students and consumers. Healthy skepticism and critical-thinking skills when reading online are low-tech techniques anyone can apply immediately.

Nonnecke believes citizens must weigh in on the debate by discussing artificial intelligence with state and federal legislators and supporting digital ethics training for future programmers and engineers. People opposed to control of deepfakes out of concern for free speech a legitimate concern must better understand the difference between hateful or deceptive content and satire or parody, she believes. "Overall, there should be more tech ethics training, because all fields require a foundation of ethical practice in technology, not just STEM."

Tightening up loopholes in AB 730 timing, misplaced responsibility, and inadequate remedies are legislative next steps, she said.

But until government adequately responds to the crisis, she said, it helps to understand and anticipate deeply biological, human behavior. "We're poised to believe things we can see, like videos," she said. "If you see something shocking, you have a propensity to pay attention to it. Biologically, we're primed to pay attention to scary things that might harm us. And there's heuristics: the more frequently we see something, the more you think it's true.

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Researchers Into 'Deepfakes' Highlight Failings of New California Legislation - East Bay Express

Human Behavior

How to be wrong – The Outline

A noncomprehensive list of unimportant things Ive been profoundly wrong about, and why: the movie Prometheus (thought the trailer looked amazing); the Super Bowl chances of the 2016-17 New England Patriots (assumed the Atlanta Falcons could hold onto a 28-3 lead); the likelihood Brock Lesnar would defeat the Undertaker at Wrestlemania 30 (the Undertaker was undefeated at Wrestlemania up until that point, Lesnars momentum seemed lackluster); the merit of the Porches album Pool (I dont know); the box office potential of Justice League despite the bad reviews (comic book fans love slop); the capacity of my slow cooker to fit a hunk of pork shoulder I wanted to make for a 2018 barbecue (I eyeballed it, it seemed fine); the quality of the chicken parmesan at one of my local Italian restaurants (how hard is chicken parm?); the potency of a marijuana vaporizer pull I took before my Thanksgiving flight back to New York City (I am just an idiot). These are just a few that come to mind, as sadly Ive been wrong about many things in the past, though the corresponding low stakes provided a bulwark against true humiliation because its not really such a big deal if one eats a bad chicken parmesan.

Only a few times have I been profoundly wrong about important things, of which the most consequential is easily the 2016 U.S. presidential election. Despite all my understanding of Donald Trump as a uniquely malicious candidate, and Hillary Clinton as a uniquely flawed one (in the context of American politics, and her particular opponent), I was nonetheless confident beyond any possible doubt that the electorate would do the right thing, and choose relative normalcy (by historical standards, at least) over certain depravity. Im sure I expressed this multiple times over the course of the campaigning, but specifically remember one such affirmation a few days before the election, when my cousin asked me if I thought Trump had any shot, to which I replied: No, absolutely not, theres no chance, with the assuredness of a man who thinks hes about to eat a decent chicken parmesan.

In the wake of the final results, what I remember just as acutely as the shock (over the result) and the despair (over what the results would likely lead to), was an overwhelming sense of wrongness. I had casually invested all my powers of computation and logic in predicting a result that was laughably incorrect; it was as if, without looking, Id said the sky is blue, no shit, its a sunny and gorgeous day, youd have to be the dumbest person alive to think it isnt and immediately tilted my head upwards to find it was neon yellow. My wrongness was so comprehensive that I felt my understanding of American politics was permanently unmoored, that I could probably not ever predict anything confidently in that realm for the rest of my life without triple and quadruple-checking it, and even then qualifying it with a well, maybe.

Naively, I assumed that everyone in the country whod also gotten it wrong at least the Hillary voters in my orbit would experience a similar moment of humility, and capitulate to the possibility that their future certainties would be just as fundamentally flawed, which would make everyone more thoughtful and generous as a result. This has not happened, another wrong prediction on my end. One reason is that some of the people whod gotten it wrong hadnt been as wrong; theyd consciously or subconsciously allotted some possibility that Trump could win, and prepared themselves for the body blow, which made them feel relatively informed when compared with guileless rubes like me. Another, more universal reason, is the human tendency toward adopting confidence despite the opposing evidence. Think about all of the people in your life, and how quickly even the intelligent ones assume theyre right pretty much all of the time now remember how the dumbasses behave. Plus the fact that there arent many tangible, enforceable penalties for being wrong, which is an invitation to keep doing it.

But still, wouldnt this spirit of humility somewhat inform the 2020 election, given the stakes? Ha ha, absolutely not. Everywhere I look, the same people are repeating the same assumptions to deleterious effect. We can pick up such tendencies in any circle, but lets look at Bernie Sanders. Because I support Sanders, I find myself particularly attuned to opinions about him, especially since I think my reasons for supporting him are fairly logical. Thus I cant help but notice that in every direction, someone is wrong about him. The centrist media underestimates his electoral viability; some of his supporters underestimate their need to build bridges between like-minded voters instead of shouting like assholes at Elizabeth Warren fans; some of his detractors stupidly assume his ultimate goal is the destruction of the Democratic party and thus pledge their support to fucking Pete Buttigieg, or just outright condescend to his political goals; maddeningly, Hillary Clinton seems to partially blame him for losing the 2016 election. You can keep going, and the totality of this wrongness is overwhelming at times.

Still, I continue to support Sanders because I believe his electoral history, ideological directives, and rhetorical approach comprise the best shot at taking down Trump, and also pushing back the forces of corporate greed and naked class warfare responsible for Americas current condition. However, as a matter of practice I just have to consider the possibility Im wrong about this that perhaps all of the possible information really does indicate Biden has the best and realest shot at beating Trump, that perhaps Sanders will be just as ineffectual as his predecessors, that worse, hed just get demolished in a general election. But because we live in the real world, where we must make real decisions with real consequences on a real timeline, the effect of considering this wrongness is not to spiral off into the ether, and tease out every single possibility and their corresponding likelihood of reality, an activity with literally no end in sight. The practical effect of contemplating my wrongness is to consider what Id actually do if I was wrong; how my wrongness would inform my future behavior.

I would hope that, should Sanders lose the nomination, Id avoid the emotional lethargy that followed his defeat in 2016, when I assumed Clinton was a foregone conclusion and thus didnt need my focused support. (Somehow working up enthusiasm for Joe Biden would, I think, be the most magnificent personal development of my lifetime but then again, whats the alternative in that situation?) I would hope that, should Sanders become president and fail to enact any of his ideas, I wouldnt take this as evidence that his leftist ideology was completely inapplicable to American society. I would hope that, should Sanders win the nomination and lose against Trump, that I wouldnt swing back to the actually, we need to get more racist of electoral pragmatists. Id hope to put aside my own saltiness about feeling like a giant dumbass, and continue support and search for the politics that would lead to the best outcome for everyone, not just the one that would satisfy my own ego.

In short, Id hope that my beliefs would not be centered in any need to be right, which is probably the worst motivation for believing in anything. Of course, this desire is the animating factor behind a lot of human behavior, political or otherwise, which is partly what makes following election coverage such a nightmare. Across all the websites and all the cable channels, in the pages of newspaper op-eds and glossy magazines, on social media platforms and obscure blogs, we find hundreds and hundreds of incurious, selfish jerkoffs extolling their wrongness as if it is a virtue, confident in the conclusions theyve arrived at through assumption and ignorance.

This is not only because of that human tendency toward adopting confidence despite the opposing evidence, but a more pernicious truth: that the financial and professional incentives for doggedly pursuing this wrongness are, in fact, quite immense. You can build an entire career on wrongness, staggering from one idiotic position to the next with no consistency or morality, and just keep doing it. Nothing is going to stop you. Think of someone like former Obama adviser Jim Messina, to pick one of a thousand wrong idiots in the public sphere, who went to work for former U.K. prime minister Theresa May ahead of her disastrous 2017 election, and nonetheless still pops up to be more wrong about things like Bernie Sanders despite the evidence that maybe he doesnt know what hes talking about. The gall of this arrogance, to keep barreling ahead in light of such wrongness, is fairly astonishing to me, but its not wholly surprising. Cultivating self-reflection and humility, qualities that make one a worthwhile human being, would also force Messina to admit his expertise is built on a foundation of shit. As he currently functions, at least he can stay employed.

Given such incentives to just keep at it, what can be done about the wrongness of others? At scale, probably nothing. A hoary cliche is that the moral arc of the universe bends toward justice well, thats what the people resisting it also believe. But while I have been wrong about many things, Ive never been wrong about the need to forge more meaningful connections between people, personal and political and otherwise, and that truth fuels me even when everything else seems confusing. In general, I think we and here I speak for everyone could stand to be a little more comfortable with exploring the potential of our own wrongness, not just because life is so vast and unknowable (though, yes), but because acknowledging our wrongness allows us to tunnel through into the new reality where, hopefully, we can be a little bit more right, about ourselves and each other. If not this time, then maybe the next, because one can only be wrong for so long.

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How to be wrong - The Outline

Human Behavior

Cal Thomas: 2020 is incredibly different from 1920s, but THIS remains unchanged – Fox News

It can be useful and instructive to observe the turning of a decade by looking back on what life was like in America a mere 100 years ago.

On Jan. 2, 1920, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 108.76. Today it is over 28,000 points.

In 1920, the U.S. had become an economic power, which is remarkable considering the bloody "war to end all wars" that ended just two years earlier. Republican presidents shifted their attention from foreign entanglements to economic growth (sound familiar?).

GARY SHAPIRO: CES 2020 -- WHY OUR LEADERS NEED TO LOOK TO LAS VEGAS

The beginning of the Roaring 20s featured new rights for women, including the right to vote, daring flapper outfits and cigarette smoking. It also included Prohibition, which led to the rise of Al Capone and the Mafia. People should have been convinced that attempts to regulate human behavior by government fiat only works if the public is willing to obey the law, which in the case of liquor it clearly was not.

The one thing that hasn't changed in the last 100 years -- and for that matter since the first humans walked the Earth -- is human nature. One can change styles of clothing and hair, change modes of transportation, even change politicians, but human nature never changes. Greed, lust and the quest for power are embedded in each of us in every generation.

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The impact of the Industrial Revolution found more people living in big cities than on farms for the first time beginning in 1920. That year also launched what we today call the "consumer society." America's total wealth more than doubled between 1920 and 1929.

As the website history.com notes: People from coast to coast bought the same goods (thanks to nationwide advertising and the spread of chain stores), listened to the same music, did the same dances and even used the same slang. Many Americans were uncomfortable with this urban, sometimes racy mass culture, and for many people in the U.S., the 1920s brought more conflict than celebration.

Isn't it the same today? Have we learned nothing? The tension between people with opposing political and social views and religious beliefs has increased these last 100 years because of contemporary social media and the 24/7 news cycle in which revolution sells better than resolution.

Cars, washing machines, new forms of birth control and other creations gave especially women new freedoms. Radio united the nation and phonograph records, which sold 100 million in 1927 alone, created a common culture, even if some older people didn't like the "modern" music.

As with Frank Sinatra and Elvis Presley in the 1940s and '50s, some older folks in the 1920s rejected the dance hall lifestyle and what they saw as the vulgarity and depravity of jazz music and the moral erosion they claimed it caused. But for the younger generation, it was a new world in which the future looked bright.

What will America be like in 2120? In 1920 no one could have foreseen a Great Depression, or a second World War, much less the prosperity and cultural changes that would come, or the threat of nuclear annihilation.

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The saying that "the more things change, the more they remain the same" has never seemed more accurate and providential.

Happy new decade!

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Cal Thomas: 2020 is incredibly different from 1920s, but THIS remains unchanged - Fox News

Human Behavior

Start-up of the Day: Is Pandora Intelligence the new Dutch unicorn? – Innovation Origins

An American soldier who was released after a period of captivity by a terrorist organization is planning an attack on his own turf. This is the beginning of the first season of the TV series Homeland. But could a series like this help you prevent these kinds of attacks in the real world? Well, yes, according to Peter de Kock from Pandora Intelligence. The company combines historical information about such attacks with books, series and other stories in order to do this. Started in 2017 with an investment of one and a half million euros, the security company is now about to take the next leap. De Kock hopes to bring new investors on board at the CES trade fair being held in Las Vegas this week. Its buzzing with rumors: is Pandora Intelligence going to be the next Dutch unicorn?

That was set in motion when we were selected by Dutch MP for Mona Keijzer (Dutch State Secretary for Economic Affairs and Climate Policy, ed.) and Prince Constantijn to go to the CES trade fair, where well be attending with the most disruptive companies from The Netherlands. Since that was announced, we have been approached by VCs (Venture Capitalists) from all quarters. Were now interesting for the major financiers. Its all happened so fast, we feel a bit like Alice in Wonderland. Talks are going on with six interested investors, one of whom is in Las Vegas. We would like to capitalize on that during CES.

At first we were faced with the choice of whether to grow gradually like a bike shop or to take advantage of this offer and expand very quickly internationally. We opted for the latter. Now a lot of parties are coming to us and we are constantly being phoned and asked if were the new Dutch unicorns.

I started doing this to make the world a better place. This is much slower when working with the government than with commercial parties, with good reason though. However, that sometimes causes frustration because you want to get something done. This led to Pandora Intelligence. Look at the subversion that is causing a lot of damage in society and makes people feel unsafe. We aim to make the world a safer place. When it comes to subversion and sabotage, there are so many more different approaches to counteract that. Technology isnt causing the bottleneck.

Many other companies look at where, for example, a virus comes from. What software has been used? Are there any other exploits? We approach it in a holistic way. Take the ransomware at Maastricht University; this method says something about the motivation of the hackers. We endeavor to merge all the various information into potential scenarios. To this end, we use data from our customers, open data and information from all the stories known to us. We follow news feeds, films and forums. Anything we can use to uncover stories, we sweep the entire internet.

Everything in a film scenario is related to everything else. The kind of murder weapon thats used says something about a perpetrators motivation. The location of an assassination also has significance. By piecing all those values together, you can completely unravel an event and figure out what you can do to counteract it.

What makes us unique is this narrative approach. Google, for example, classifies the world on the basis of commercial values. You can pay for extra clicks. But the world changes, values change. We want to classify the world in another way by considering symbolism and ontology.

I guess thats how you could put it. The government is a large and (for good reason) slowly operating institution. You cant just decide on something and carry it out. Its bound by all sorts of rules. Whereas making a film can go pretty fast. I can think of something now and start filming that tomorrow. A start-up is definitely somewhere in between, youre much freer than you are when working for the government and you can make decisions much faster. But I also see similarities. Because in both the police and the film world you have to create a team where you can bring out the best in each other. This also applies to a start-up. Especially in the initial phase when stress levels can be high and you cant afford to make so many mistakes.

Oil companies occasionally ask us to predict where and when a pipeline will rupture. But we cant do that, as it has has nothing to do with human behavior. We cannot anticipate natural processes. Im sure you could calculate what rust does, but well leave that up to other companies. We could look at the likelihood of someone sabotaging a pipeline in a troubled area. We can say something about that because it concerns human behavior.

Weve also been approached by parties asking if its possible to destabilize a country politically. That is possible in theory. Just look at Brexit and Cambridge Analytica. But thats not what we want to be involved with. We always have to ask ourselves who were doing something for and what the consequences are.

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Start-up of the Day: Is Pandora Intelligence the new Dutch unicorn? - Innovation Origins

Human Behavior

Eye Tracking Market Worth $1,786 Million by 2025 – Exclusive Report by MarketsandMarkets – PR Newswire UK

CHICAGO, Jan. 6, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- According to the new market research report "Eye Tracking Market by Offering (Hardware, Software, and Services), Tracking Type (Remote and Mobile), Application (Assistive Communication, Human Behavior & Market Research,), Vertical, and Geography - Global Forecast to 2025", published by MarketsandMarkets, the Eye Tracking Market is expected to grow from USD 560 million in 2020 to USD 1,786 million by 2025; it is expected to grow at a CAGR of 26.1% from 2020 to 2025. The high demand for eye trackers in the healthcare vertical, especially for the assistive communication application is one of the key driving factors for the eye tracking market. The increasing penetration of eye tracking technology in the consumer electronics vertical, and high demand for eye trackers for personalized advertisements and consumer research purposes are a few other key factors having a positive impact on the growth of the eye tracking market.

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Remote eye tracking segment to hold largest share of eye tracking market, by tracking type, in 2020

The remote eye tracking segment will lead the eye tracking market, by tracking type, in terms of size, by 2020. The leading position of this segment can be attributed to the high demand for remote eye trackers for assistive communication and human behavior & market research applications, especially in healthcare, research, and retail verticals.

Market for automotive & transportation vertical to grow at highest CAGR during forecast period

The eye tracking market for the automotive & transportation vertical is expected to witness the highest growth during the forecast period. Rise in the adoption of eye tracking technology in the automotive & transportation vertical for integration in driver monitoring systems is the major reason for the high growth of this vertical in the eye tracking market. Eye tracking technology is considered as an effective technology to detect drowsy or distracted drivers due to which this technology is increasingly being integrated into driver monitoring systems. The healthcare & research labs vertical is expected to dominate the eye tracking market, in terms of size, during the forecast period.

North America to hold largest share of eye tracking market by 2020

North America is expected to hold the largest share of the eye tracking market by 2020. The US and Canada are the key countries contributing to the growth of the eye tracking market in North America. Europe is expected to account for the second-largest share of the eye tracking market during the forecast period. The UK and Germany are significant demand-generating countries for eye tracking technology-based products and services in this region.

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110 Tables59 Figures172 Pages

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A few key players operating in the eye tracking market are Tobii (Sweden), EyeTracking (US), SR Research (Canada), Seeing Machines (Australia), PRS IN VIVO (France), Smart Eye (Sweden), EyeTech Digital Systems (US), LC Technologies (US), Ergoneers (Germany), ISCAN (US), iMotions (Denmark), and Lumen Research (UK).

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Gesture Recognition and Touchless Sensing Marketby Technology (Touch-based and Touchless), Product (Sanitary Equipment, Touchless Biometric), Industry, and Geography - Global Forecast to 2022

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Eye Tracking Market Worth $1,786 Million by 2025 - Exclusive Report by MarketsandMarkets - PR Newswire UK

Human Behavior

URI, BayCare in Florida and Butler Hospital team up to test retinal scanning for early detection of Alzheimer’s disease – URI Today

KINGSTON, R.I. Jan. 6, 2020 The University of Rhode Island, in collaboration with BayCare Health System in Florida and The Memory and Aging Program at Butler Hospital, an affiliate of The Warren Alpert Medical School of Brown University, is launching a clinical trial of retinal screening processes that could help clinicians detect Alzheimers disease possibly two or more decades before patients develop life-altering clinical symptoms.

The five-year, $5 million Atlas of Retinal Imaging in Alzheimers Study (ARIAS) is sponsored by BayCare Health Systems Morton Plant Hospital and St. Anthonys Hospital and funded largely by Morton Plant Mease Health Care Foundation and St. Anthonys Hospital Foundation in Pinellas County, Florida.

Principal investigators for the study are Peter Snyder, Ph.D., URI vice president for research and economic development and professor of biomedical and pharmaceutical sciences, and Stuart Sinoff, M.D., who specializes in neuro-ophthalmology and is a medical director of Neurosciences for BayCare Health Systems West Region in Pinellas County. According to the two researchers, the objective is to create a gold standard reference database of structural, anatomic and functional imaging of the retina to enable the identification and development of sensitive and reliable markers of early Alzheimers disease and/or risk progression.

The problem now is that one of the central diagnostic tools for Alzheimers disease, positron emission tomography (PET) scanning devices, which can detect amyloid protein plaques (a toxic protein that interferes with normal brain function), are expensive. While they can detect brain pathology related to Alzheimers disease well before symptoms develop, the costs for such machines run into the millions and one test currently costs as much as $4,500. So, PET scans are often done after patients become symptomatic and when drug therapies may no longer be effective in slowing the disease in its earliest stages. Snyder also notes that a large portion of the worlds population does not have access to PET scans.

When our study is completed, we want to make the technology available so that optometrists and ophthalmologists could screen for the retinal biomarkers we believe are associated with Alzheimers disease and watch them over time, Snyder said. If clinicians see changes, they could refer their patients to specialists early on. We believe this could significantly lower the cost of testing. We may then identify more people in the very earliest stage of the disease, and our drug therapies are likely to be more effective at that point and before decades of slow disease progression.

Snyder and Sinoff are working with Stephen Salloway, M.D., director of Neurology and the Memory and Aging Program, Butler Hospital and Martin M. Zucker professor of psychiatry and human behavior, professor of neurology, Alpert Medical School of Brown University, who is a world-leading clinical trials expert in Alzheimers disease, and Jessica Alber, Ph.D., Ryan assistant professor of research and cognitive neuroscientist at URI, who completed her post-doctoral fellowship in the Department of Psychiatry and Human Behavior at the Alpert Medical School of Brown University with Salloway and Snyder. There are 14 other collaborators, including neuropsychologists, social workers, optometrists, nursing staff and students.

We are very grateful to be working with some of the leading researchers in the field from BayCare, Butler Hospital and Brown University on this important study, Snyder said. Drs. Sinoff, Salloway, Alber and I have already been publishing together in this area. I am honored that Dr. Salloway is leading our clinical site at Butler Hospital, and our work there will be tightly coordinated with the efforts on this study at BayCares two flagship hospitals in Florida.

Modern health care is perhaps a victim of its own success, Sinoff said. With an ever increasing human lifespan, we find ourselves faced with a rapidly expanding group of people in cognitive decline. And theres also the unanticipated ballooning of the price tag for dementia care. ARIAS is structured to address both.

Speaking for the Florida sites, Morton Plant Hospital and St. Anthonys Hospital, and with special homage to the generous support from the Morton Plant Mease Health Care Foundation who have made ARIAS possible, I am truly honored to work with Drs. Snyder, Alber and Salloway, partnering to establish a cost-effective biomarker panel that will identify people in the earliest stages of Alzheimers disease possible.

We are excited to be participating with the ARIAS team from URI and BayCare on this landmark study, Salloway said. The ARIAS study closely aligns with the mission of Butler Hospital and Brown University to develop new approaches to detect Alzheimers risk early and keep the brain healthy so memory loss never occurs.

The ARIAS study is unique in its focus on preclinical stage disease, and its emphasis on viewing the retina as a complex biological system, requiring that researchers view the retina in many different ways at the same time. For example, pictures of the retinas of participants will be taken with very special blue, green and infrared lasers that are completely safe, but will allow for a microscopic look at its anatomy, changes in pigment chemicals as well as the movement of red blood cells in the retina.

The cells in the neuronal layers of the retina are the same types as cells in the brain that are attacked by the disease, so cell changes in the retina might reflect the same changes that are happening in the brain, Snyder said. We can look more easily in the retina to see the effects of disease on the way blood is carried to brain and retinal cells. We are also using a very new laser imaging technique that makes the chemical pigments in the retina fluoresce, and we think atypical changes in the amount of these chemicals might signal high risk for Alzheimers disease.

The ARIAS study will enroll 330 individuals between the ages of 55 and 80 years old, ranging from very healthy and low-risk adults, to persons with concerns about their memory, as well as patients with mild Alzheimers disease. Each participant will be examined at four different points over a three-year period, and each study visit includes an eye exam, a medical history discussion, some tests of how people think and how well they remember new information, the retinal imaging that is very much like the kind done at the eye doctors office, and measures of mood, walking and balancing, sleep habits and other types of medical information.

If you are interested in donating your time to participate in this important study, and if you live near Providence, Rhode Island, please contact the Butler Alzheimers Prevention Registry butler.org/alzregistry or call 401-455-6402.

If you live near Tampa, Clearwater or St. Petersburg in Florida, and you are interested in finding out more about the study, please call Catrina Montgomery at 727-298-6077.

About the University of Rhode Island

The University of Rhode Island is a competitive and highly regarded public institution in New England and beyond. Founded in 1892, the University is the principal public flagship research and graduate institution in Rhode Island, enrolling about 14,650 undergraduate students and more than 2,240 graduate students. The University is known regionally and worldwide for its big ideas and pioneering research in air, water, and ground pollution; biotechnology and life sciences; engineering, marine sciences, forensic sciences, neuroscience, pharmaceuticals, the behavioral sciences and public health promotion.URI is home toThe George & Anne Ryan Institute for Neuroscience, which brings together a pioneering team of scientists noted for their contributions to under-explored factors in brain healthincluding the roles of inflammation, the immune system, and blood vessels in the development of neurodegenerative diseases like Alzheimers.

About BayCare Health System

BayCare is a leading not-for-profit health care system that connects individuals and families to a wide range of services at 15 hospitals and hundreds of other convenient locations throughout the Tampa Bay and central Florida regions. Inpatient and outpatient services include acute care, primary care, imaging, laboratory, behavioral health, home care, and wellness. Our mission is to improve the health of all we serve through community-owned, health care services that set the standard for high-quality, compassionate care. For more information, visit http://www.BayCare.org.

About Butler Hospital

Butler Hospital, a member of Care New England, is the only private, nonprofit psychiatric and substance abuse hospital serving adults, seniors and adolescents in Rhode Island and southeastern New England. Founded in 1844, it was the first hospital in Rhode Island and has earned a reputation as the leading provider of innovative psychiatric treatments in the region. The Major Affiliated Teaching Hospital for Psychiatry and Behavioral Health at The Warren Alpert Medical School of Brown University, Butler is recognized worldwide as a pioneer in conducting cutting-edge research. For more information, visit butler.org.

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URI, BayCare in Florida and Butler Hospital team up to test retinal scanning for early detection of Alzheimer's disease - URI Today

Human Behavior

Opinion: Why Republicans will stick with Trump in 2020 – Los Angeles Times

Recently, a close friend and fellow Republican told me he was personally shocked at what the evangelicals have been willing to stomach from Donald Trump. Im not shocked at all.

My friends sentiment a variation on the empty if Obama had done this, Republicans wouldve impeached him has become a staple of Democrats and Never Trumpers. Are you ready to turn on him yet? Republicans are asked over and over.

No one ever says yes. The Republicans who make a living hating Trump today hated him before he was elected. The rest of the party remains solidly behind him. The reason for that, as we enter this election year, is less granular than feeling happy or sad about a specific presidential behavior. Rather, it has to do with the general direction of the nation: Trump and whoever the Democrats nominate represent such fundamentally different directions for our country that it is almost unthinkable for a Republican voter to be seriously torn.

Imagine standing at a train station in Louisville, Ky., staring at the schedule board. You want to get to Los Angeles, and you have a choice of two trains one headed to San Diego and one headed to Washington, D.C. Neither gets you exactly where youre heading, but theres really only one choice as the alternative to San Diego is to go precisely the wrong way.

Even if the San Diego train sometimes hits bumpy tracks, and the conductor comes on the PA and says crude and dumb stuff, and there are people on the train you really wish would get off: It is still taking you basically where you want to go.

To the average Republican voter, like the passenger on that train, the destination is what matters.

I tried to explain this to my friend. I told him that, for Christian conservatives, the choices are Trump versus people who prefer full-term abortions and believe that that our country should functionally have no borders. To vote against Trump is to vote for a party that fundamentally believes Republicans are deplorable and racist.

The decision isnt hard.

But the porn stars! The crudeness! The immorality! my friend says.

To a Christian conservative voter, the individual behavior of an imperfect human pales against the importance of protecting human life. If the imperfect president appoints pro-life judges and takes your values into account when making policy, you dont worry so much about one sinners struggles with morality. You just pray for him, while also giving thanks for all he does to advance your cause.

Choosing any of the Democrats running for president isnt simply boarding a train headed in a slightly different direction, or one going the same way with a nicer conductor. It means completely turning around. For goodness sakes, Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden have both proposed plans that would spend taxpayer dollars on gender assignment surgery!

And thats what has been so illuminating about this Democratic primary race: Because of their extreme tilt to the left, none of these candidates have a prayer of peeling off a statistically significant number of Republican voters. No matter what the Never Trumpers in your Twitter feed tell you, Trump win or lose will have the support of more than 90% of his party.

Some people used to argue that the two parties are basically the same. It wasnt true then, and its especially not true now. Most of Trumps governance has been what youd expect from any Republican president (conservative judges, lower taxes, deregulation, an embrace of pro-life policies), and the wild extremism of his would-be opponents is causing some center-right voters who were lukewarm on Trump three years ago to feel closer to him than ever before.

The exception to that is the cohort of suburban women who clearly abandoned the Republicans in the 2018 midterm and strongly disapprove of Trump now. But will losing them be enough to derail the Trump train?

I consulted the impeachment polling aggregator on Nate Silvers FiveThirtyEight website on Dec. 29, and it said that 48% of Americans prefer impeachment and removal versus 46% who did not. As has been true for three years, the polls say men basically want Trump and women basically dont.

Impeachment has become a political Rorschach test, and Trump might easily win reelection with a two-point deficit in the popular vote. The question isnt how Republicans can still vote for Trump, but how the Democrats became so radicalized as to present no viable alternative to huge swaths of nonurban America.

Scott Jennings is a former advisor to President George W. Bush and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and a CNN contributor. He is a contributing writer to Opinion. Twitter: @ScottJenningsKY.

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Opinion: Why Republicans will stick with Trump in 2020 - Los Angeles Times

Human Behavior

Alexandria mayor names acting chief as ousted chief’s backers call for support – The Town Talk

Alexandria Mayor Jeff Hall has named an acting police chief as opposition to his administration placing Jerrod King on leave got louder with his supporters calling for citizens to push back.

Hall, in a release sent out Sunday, named Alexandria Police Department Assistant Chief Farrell Gaspard as the acting chief.

A message on an electronic billboard near the Jackson Street and Versailles Boulevard intersection shows support for Chief Jerrod King, who was placed on leave Friday.(Photo: Melissa Gregory/The Town Talk)

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Hall stated he thought Gaspard, a 32-year veteran with the department and Mansura native, would ""do an outstanding job in this role.

King, named chief in May 2018 by former Mayor Jacques Roy, was placed on administrative leave on Friday. No reason was given, and a city spokesman said itcouldn't be discussed since it was a personnel matter.

Acting Alexandria Police Chief Farrell Gaspard(Photo: Courtesy/city of Alexandria)

Just days before, on New Year's Eve, had King posted a message on his personal Facebook page to the department's officers. He wrote that the past year had been exciting and challenging.

"Together, we have faced critical issues ranging from manpower concerns, budgetary constraints, and concerns of financial compensation for you, to what sometimes seems to be a continual display of the worst in human behavior," he wrote. "Despite all of the obstacles and issues that have arisen along with facing the evil that all of you confront on a daily basis you have remained true to our departmental values of Service to Others, Honor, Integrity, Excellence, Loyalty, and Dedication."

The message also wished his officers and their families peace, prosperity and happiness for 2020.

"It has been my distinct honor and absolute privilege to serve as your Chief this past year. None of us know what tomorrow may hold but I want to assure you that I am and will always be extremely grateful to each of you, the men and women of this department, and to your families for allowing me to serve as your Chief."

King's supporters on Saturday unveiled a Facebook page, AEX4King, asking residents to show their support. They called upon residents to attend Tuesday's Alexandria City Council meeting to support King.

The page has garnered more than 1,200 likes since its debut on Saturday.

Supporters also paid to post a message of support on at least one electronic billboard on Jackson Street.

Read or Share this story: https://www.thetowntalk.com/story/news/2020/01/05/alexandria-mayor-names-acting-chief-ousted-chiefs-backers-call-support/2819292001/

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Alexandria mayor names acting chief as ousted chief's backers call for support - The Town Talk

Human Behavior

Should Tesla Take The Initiative To Better Monitor And Manage Driver Behavior With Autopilot? – Forbes

A video call while a car is driven by an autopilot. Is there a need to couple driver monitoring with ... [+] collaborative automation?

By any account, Teslas Autopilot feature has come a long way since being released to consumers through an Over-The-Air (OTA) update just over 4 years ago. At inception, it was at best an incredibly sophisticated bootstrapped system based upon a Mobileye sensing platform and limited processing capabilities. With Teslas newer computing and data platforms, Autopilot is clearly one of the worlds more complex and impressive applications of a learning based Artificial Intelligence (AI) system.

The safety of Autopilot continues to be questioned by experts worldwide. A recent letter from Senator Markey to Elon Musk adds to an already heated conversation. In a post earlier this year on the Tesla automation strategy, I raised the question of whether it is appropriate for consumers to be used as test subjects, the need for a well validated measure of risk associated with the use of Autopilot, and the need for camera-based driver monitoring to manage inattention. In the months since, visuals in the media of drivers falling asleep, engrossed in non-driving activities, and otherwise participating in inattentive driving continue to appear. Seemly random, but realistically predictable, crashes keep happening that might be preventable with camera-based driver monitoring and driver management.

The reason crashes are predictable is that humans have long been known to be poor overseers of highly automated systems. When a supervisor feels that the automation is trustable, the irony is that there will be an increase in the number of system failures that are not mitigated correctly by a human supervisor. It simply becomes increasingly difficult to sustain attention as automation becomes more reliable. There is a painful history in transportation safety showing this. Recently, the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) detailed these types of failures in investigations of several Autopilot crashes and the tragic 2018 Uber fatality.

Perhaps paradoxically, it could be argued that with the explosive use of Autopilot, we would expect to see more crashes. However, the work from the late Raja Parasuraman and his students would suggest that imperfect automation (like Autopilot) keeps many users from becoming too complacent. In essence, its possible that the failure of a few individuals to appropriately oversee and collaborate with the automation is mixed with more responsible use by many.

This is not a new phenomenon for automotive engineers. It has long been known that it is difficult to engineer for all. Some drivers choose to speed, pick-up their phones, and be otherwise irresponsible with respect to other drivers with which they share the road. Are close-calls and crashes with Autopilot really more frequent than other cases of attention failures? Or are they just more easily associated with the evolution of a new and perhaps transformative (and perhaps over marketed) technology? Over the coming years there will likely be many efforts to better understand, and arguments around answering, these formidable questions. One clear difference from the introduction of previous generations of automotive systems is that todays social media driven society is helping to highlight problematic events.

The images and video that accompany todays social posts have increasingly brought what was once largely hidden from public view into the limelight. This naturally presses consumers, safety advocates, regulators and even politicians into a position of judging the social ethics of how technologies are implemented.

Given this new reality, Senator Markys letter to Mr. Musk questioning if Tesla is tracking or monitoring online videos to learn about inappropriate use of the Autopilot, is right on track. Something else to consider is that Tesla Model 3s are equipped with a cabin camera. Might Tesla use this sensor, and a fraction of their technological image processing prowess, to better gauge the state of drivers? Even a rudimentary driver monitoring system might be able to detect an outright inattentive driver asleep at the wheel or head down for seconds on end.

Manufacturers such as GM and BMW have introduced camera-based driver monitoring and management systems with the launch of their collaborative driving systems (i.e., SAE L2). One has to suspect other manufacturers will follow this seemingly reasonable route to market, bridging the time till automated systems that do not depend on attentive human back-up are truly available.

Just as outliers may be responsible for the majority of risky behavior associated with Autopilot, might Tesla be passively accepting undue risk compared to the rest of the market? Growing evidence suggests that Autopilot is placing drivers, and perhaps the automotive industry, in a precarious position. The aviation industry has long known that one airlines accident impacts trust in all airlines.

With a call to reinvent driving through the greater use of automation, is it time for the automotive industry to collaborate to increase the likelihood that the introduction and refinement of these technological approaches to making driving safer in the years ahead will have the greatest potential to succeed?

Following efforts in Europe, and using a framework similar to the NHTSA-IIHS collaborative industry agreement on AEB, could manufacturers and the government come together to take another step forward in safety by collaboratively agreeing to install camera-based driver monitoring systems to work alongside collaborative driving features?

Some might argue that a detailed, performance-based standard for systems is needed. However, starting with a fairly broad and open concept may be a more realistic starting point, and a Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standard (FMVSS) could be more easily justified as experience is gained and the cost / benefit justification of a standard emerges. Working together to develop guardrails around the deployment and testing of automation on public roads might be the most important step to accelerate the adoption of potentially lifesaving automated vehicle technologies.

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Should Tesla Take The Initiative To Better Monitor And Manage Driver Behavior With Autopilot? - Forbes