Category Archives: Human Behavior

Human Behavior

Exploitation in the Amazon, and Why We Underestimated COVID-19 – The New Yorker

Illustration by Golden Cosmos

Despite the warnings of politicians and health-care professionals, many have failed to treat the coronavirus pandemic as a serious danger. Daniel Kahneman, a Nobel Prize-winning expert on human behavior, speaks with Maria Konnikova about why the threat posed by COVID-19 defies intuitive comprehension. Plus: Jon Lee Anderson reports from Brazil, where Jair Bolsonaros government is pushing to allow commercial mining in the Amazon, despite the harm that it will bring to the indigenous groups who live there. And Jelani Cobb speaks with DJ D-Nice about his Instagram Live party, Club Quarantine, which attracted hundreds of thousands of socially distanced attendees.

Daniel Kahneman, a Nobel Prize-winning expert on human behavior, on the reasons that so many people failed to take the coronavirus seriously.

Jon Lee Anderson reports on Jair Bolsonaros push to allow commercial mining on protected lands, and the harm it will do to Brazils indigenous groups.

The story of an Instagram Live party that attracted hundreds of thousands of peopleincluding Rihanna, Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, and Drake.

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Exploitation in the Amazon, and Why We Underestimated COVID-19 - The New Yorker

Human Behavior

You touch your face 23 times an hour. Heres how to stop. – Houston Chronicle

Chances are, youve touched your face twice in the last five minutes. Even if you havent noticed. And amid the COVID-19 outbreak, this could be one of the most subtle, yet dangerous ways humans can contract the coronavirus.

Its not quite a reflex, but its automatic and we dont think about it, which is what makes it so hard to stop doing it, said Jim Pomerantz, a professor of psychological sciences at Rice University.

This is something thats so important, but I dont think its well enough understood by the public, continued Pomerantz, who is chair of the Psychonomic Society Governing Board, which released a list of five science-backed ways to stop this ingrained habit. Essentially, touching your face is the way not a way, the way that we get the virus.

On average, people touch their face 23 times an hour, according to a 2015 study in the American Journal of Infection Control. Whats more, the study reported that 44 percent of these touches involve contact with a mucous membrane, like the eyes, nose and mouth.

And these are our bodys greatest weaknesses, since coronavirus is spread through tiny droplets that can be inhaled or otherwise ingested through these openings, before attacking a persons insides.

Coronavirus is largely spread through human behavior; shaking someones hand and then failing to wash your hands. Then, Pomerantz said, were off to the races.

The only other way we get it is by folks coughing or sneezing in your face. And I cant remember the last time anybody ever sneezed or coughed in my face, said Pomerantz. So its entering through your eyes, nose or mouth. And the only way it gets there is if youre touching your face.

But how do you stop doing something you probably didnt even realize you were doing so often?

ON RENEWHOUSTON.COM: New evidence shows social distancing works

The first step, he said, is awareness. Like any other habit hair twirling, or fingernail biting realizing how often you perform these behaviors is key to breaking the pattern. He suggests dabbing perfume or cologne on your fingertips, so youll smell your hand when it nears your face. Or perhaps try wearing a bandanna, he said. Your fingers are more likely to sense the alien fabric and alert your brain that somethings up.

Its like were saying, It cant be that simple! We have to have a vaccine or an expensive medical invention, said Pomerantz. But we can help save ourselves through simple preventions.

Here are the full set of guidelines to kick the habit, according to the Psychonomic Society:

Increase awareness. Ask a partner to tell you when youre touching your face. Try an hour of that, and youll realize youre not touching your face as much, said Pomerantz.

Help others. Think of the people youre trying to protect by not touching your face; gently remind others when you see them touch their faces.

Do other things with your hands. Put your hands in your pockets; hold something like a ball or a deck of cards in your hands; make fists for one minute after each time you catch yourself touching your face.

Change postures. Keep your elbows off the table; sit in chairs without armrests or the middle of your couch; sit on your hands if you cant keep from touching your face.

Practice relaxation techniques. Focus on taking a long, slow, deep breath an relaxing tense muscles; Sit in a quiet place and be mindful of that present moment; spend time in nature at a safe distance from others.

maggie.gordon@chron.com;

twitter.com/MagEGordon

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You touch your face 23 times an hour. Heres how to stop. - Houston Chronicle

Human Behavior

Blackbird.AI CEO: COVID-19 is the Olympics of disinformation – VentureBeat

COVID-19 disinformation has exploded in recent weeks, with campaigns using a combination of bots and humans to sow fear and confusion at a time when verifiable information has become a matter of life or death.

According to a new report from Blackbird.AI, a wide range of actors are leveraging confusion around the coronavirus to dupe people into amplifying false and misleading information. With COVID-19s almost unprecedented impact around the globe, virtually every type of player in the disinformation wars, from nations to private actors, is rushing into the breach.

If its favorable for creating societal chaos, for sowing some sort of discord, then they all kind of jump on, said Blackbird.AI CEO Wasim Khaled. COVID-19 is the Olympics of disinformation. Every predator is in for this event.

In the past few weeks, many of the leading online platforms have attempted to clamp down on the information warfare their services have enabled. To direct users toward helpful sites, many of them now place links to reputable scientific or government sources at the top of feeds or in search results.

And theyve implemented other tactics in an attempt to turn the tide. Pinterest has been highlighting verified health advice, while Facebook gave unlimited free advertising to the World Health Organization. Meanwhile, Google has announced it will invest $6.5 million to fight misinformation.

Still, voice assistants like Alexa and Google Assistant are struggling to respond to questions about COVID-19. To address the onslaught of erroneous information online, the U.K. has established a disinformation rapid response team. Today, an EU official blasted players like Google, Facebook, and Amazon for continuing to make money from fake news and disinformation.

We still see that the major platforms continue to monetize and incentivize disinformation and harmful content about the pandemic by hosting online ads, the European Unions justice chief Vera Jourova told Reuters. This should be stopped. The financial disincentives from clickbait disinformation and profiteering scams also should be stopped.

Founded in 2014, Blackbird.AI has developed a platform that uses artificial intelligence to sift through massive amounts of content to dissect disinformation events. It uses a combination of machine learning and human specialists to identify and categorize the types of information flowing across social media and news sites. In doing so, Blackbird. AI can separate information being created by bots from human-generated content and track how its being amplified.

Typically, the company works with corporations and brands to monitor changes to their reputation. But with the rise of the COVID-19 pandemic, the company has shifted to focus on a new threat. The goal is to raise companies and individuals awareness in the hopes that they can curb the virality of disinformation campaigns.

Anyone whos watching this spread is pretty familiar with the concept of flattening the curve, Khaled said. Weve always used a similar concept. Weve described disinformation as a contagion, with virality being the driver.

Unfortunately, the spread of disinformation is still in the exponential part of the curve.

For its COVID-19 Disinformation Report, the company analyzed 49,755,722 tweets from 13,203,289 unique users on COVID-19 topics between February 27 and March 12. The number of tweets in this category soared as Italy implemented lockdowns and the Dow Jones plummeted. Of those tweets, the company found that 18,880,396 were inorganic, meaning the tweets were being manipulated in a manner not consistent with human behavior.

Measuring the ratio of inorganic content helps the company generate a Blackbird Manipulation Index. In this case, the BBMI of COVID-19 tweets is 37.95%, which places it just inside the medium level of manipulation.

Were facing this kind of asymmetrical information warfare thats being waged against not only the American public but across many societies in the world at a really incredible clip at one of our most vulnerable moments in history, he said. There is incredible fear and uncertainty around what is right and what is wrong. And today people feel if you do the wrong thing, you just might kill your grandfather. Its a lot of pressure and so people are looking for information. That gives a huge opening to disinformation actors.

That BBMI number varies widely within specific campaigns.

For instance, on February 28 President Trump held a rally in Charleston, South Carolina, where he claimed the concern around coronavirus was an attempt by Democrats to discredit him, calling it their new hoax. Following that speech, Blackbird.AI detected a spike in hashtags such as #hoax, #Democrats, #DemHoax, #FakeNews, #TrumpRallyCharleston and #MAGA. A similar spike occurred after March 9, when Italian politicians quarantined the whole country.

In both cases, the platform detected a coordinated campaign to discredit the Democratic Party, a narrative dubbed Dem Panic. Of 2,535,059 tweets, 839,764 were inorganic for a BBMI of 33.1%.

But within that campaign, certain hashtag subcategories showed even higher levels of manipulation: #QAnon (63.38% BBMI), #MAGA (57.00%), and #Pelosi (53.17%).

The driving message: that the Democrats were overblowing the issue in order to hurt President Trump, the report says. The Dem Panic narrative and related spin-offs also included the widespread mention of the out of control homeless population and high number of immigrants in Democratic districts. Many of these messages unwittingly found their way into what would traditionally be considered credible media stories.

In all these cases, the hashtags have synthetic origins but eventually spread far enough that real people picked them up and furthered their reach. The broad goal of such campaigns, said Khaled, is to delegitimize politicians, the media, medical experts, and scientists by spreading disinformation.

While all the policymakers are still trying to decide what is the best course of action, these campaigns work very hard at undermining that type of advice, he said. The goal was, How do we downplay the health risks of COVID-19 to the American public and to cast doubt on the warnings that are given by the government and public health agencies?'

Other coronavirus disinformation campaigns include the conspiracy theory suggesting the U.S. had bioengineered the virus and introduced it into China.

This content was seeded into public media in China, Khaled said. And, of course, it was immediately distributed by social media users who believed those narratives and amplified them. Its happened around the world and in dozens of languages. There was not only the U.S. and China, but there was Iran blaming the U.S., the U.S. blaming China, all of these campaigns were out there.

While Blackbird.AI doesnt necessarily identify the originators of these campaigns, Khaled said they generally fall into three categories. The first is state-backed, typically Russia or China these days. The second is disinformation-as-a-service, where people can hire firms to buy disinformation service packages. The third is the lone wolf that just wants to watch the world burn.

It all has the objective of creating a shifting in perceptions in the readers mind pushing them toward a behavior change or pushing them to spread the narrative further, he said.

This doesnt mean just retweeting fake news. Behavioral manipulation can also be used to move fake masks or drugs. And in some extreme circumstances, it has resulted in direct threats to life. Khaled noted that Dr. Anthony Fauci, the infectious disease specialist who is featured at presidential briefings, required extra security following death threats that were fueled by online conspiracy theorists. In addition, a train engineer attempted to attack the Navy ship entering a Los Angeles harbor by derailing a train because he believed another set of online conspiracies about the ship being part of a government takeover.

While Blackbird.AI is trying to help rein in the chaos, Khaled is not optimistic that the campaigns are going to be contained anytime soon.

Im 100% confident this is going to get much worse on the disinformation cycle, he said. Not only are we not seeing any indication that its slowing down, were seeing significant indication that its significantly ramping up. These disinformation actors, theyre going to take every possible advantage right now. People have to be aware. They have to understand that the things that they are going to see might have bad intent behind [them], they have to go to the CDC, they have to go to the WHO, they cannot take the stuff that they see at face value.

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Blackbird.AI CEO: COVID-19 is the Olympics of disinformation - VentureBeat

Human Behavior

Passover in trying times – The Wisconsin Jewish Chronicle

This is not a direct parallel, but I remember, back on Sept. 11, 2001, I was a newspaper reporter driving in to work in the morning. I was the only reporter with a cell phone, and my editor called. He told me to head to Mitchell International Airport, where I found hundreds standing around a TV there that used to be in the center of the main area. They were all silently watching events unfold. They were so riveted, when I approached people to request an interview, they kept declining. This was an immediate change in human behavior. People usually say yes to interviews.

This coronavirus moment, too, is a circumstance that is changing our behavior, but what doesnt change is who we are. We are the Jewish people, and that means something.

Pesach is a reminder that the Jewish people have endured trying circumstances countless times before. Today, the whole world is under pressure and were part of that world. Thats our current reality.

Its also a reality that the Jewish people are a family, a little group of fewer than 15 million worldwide and not more than 30,000 locally. Michpacha looks out for mishpacha, and we hope to do the right thing for our family in our little corner of things, as best we can.

So heres our plan: Were on it. In this edition of the Chronicle and online, weve worked to connect you with Jewish-related resources and information on the coronavirus. Were reporting on the complexities of our societal reaction to the problem. Were connecting you with educational leaders, synagogues and more, and well continue to do so. Check our website and social media for updates. Meanwhile, if youre aware of more information for the Jewish community, please let us know.

In our Passover section this month, weve got great content on items as disparate as horseradish and Alpha Epsilon Phi sorority sisters making cookies in Madison. So when youve had your fill of coronavirus coverage and could use a break, weve got that, too.

Yours, with washed hands, Rob Golub, Editor

Related

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Passover in trying times - The Wisconsin Jewish Chronicle

Human Behavior

After the Pandemic: Designing a Just and Resilient Economy For All – State of the Planet

by Dale Willman|April 3, 2020

A ship passing through the Panama Canal. Photo: Dale Willman

The coronavirus pandemic has shown the immense brittleness and vulnerability of the worlds economy. Extended supply chains have collapsed, many staples are in short supply, and life-saving healthcare in many countries is being rationed. So, what will a recovery look like? Will it focus on a return to normal the same conditions that made such a collapse possible in the first place? Or do we find another path forward?

Normal might not be a system that were all benefiting from, says Jon Erickson, an ecological economist with the University of Vermont. Normal might be a system that concentrates the benefits to the few but distributes the costs to the many. So ultimately, I think this conversation is about returning to what system, and how and for whom.

Erikson along with Juliet Schor of Boston College and Nate Hagens of the Post Carbon Institute recently took part in an on-line conversation about how to make the economy more resilient and able to withstand deep disturbance. The conversation was hosted by the Resilience Media Project, which is part of the Earth Institute Initiative on Communication and Sustainability, and included hundreds of journalists and economists.

There are two timelines tight now, says Hagens, and we need to do two things right away. He calls these emergency measures, necessary to stop the economic hemorrhaging. Republicans dont want to bail out people we have to bail out people. Democrats dont want to bail out corporations we have to bail out corporations. We have to keep the system afloat during this period.

Once the economy is stabilized though, or not too long after, Hagens says well have no choice but to take a different path. It will be just a few years before societies start to recognize that we dont have the materials or energy to continue growing. So all futures are going to, I would argue, need to use 30 percent to 50 percent less energy. And what that means is that we can no longer have GDP as our global, cultural human objective. Instead, he says, our goals will shift to well-being.

One effort to start moving in that direction can happen immediately, says Juliet Schor. Schor is an economist at Boston College. She says expanding community-level sharing economies can help us move toward a new economic system. But when she talks of sharing, she says that doesnt mean gig economy companies such as Uber and AirBNB. They are less resilient than conventional firms, and that is because the key part of their business model is shifting risk onto their workers. What she wants to see more of are economies that are truly locally based.

These tend to be a bit more resilient than those with global supply chains, she says. And there are other aspects of the sharing economy that are particularly resilient. So for example, if we think about something like cooperative ownership, which is a sharing idea cooperatively owned firms (worker cooperatives), they tend to do what we call labor hoard during downturns. They keep people on the payroll in periods of reduced demand more than conventional firms do. And this hoarding means that more people have income in downturns and these companies are able to retain trained talent that will sustain them when the economy picks up again.

In the end, The new economic story will really be stories, with an S, says Erickson. And from my perspective as an ecological economist, perhaps whats most needed and the least discussed is a story about right-sizing the economy with a focus on dialing back the scale of the economic system to within its ecological limits.

Some things to consider as we try and find that new path forward.

You can watch the entire program here:

Additional resources for journalists below.

How the Pandemic Will End The Atlantic. A great general overview of what we know, and where this might end

Coronavirus Facebook page for sharing ideas for radio stations

Coronavirus shows that yes, we can affect rapid change

Traffic and Pollution Drop Because of Coronavirus

World stats on Coronavirus (not economic)

Return to business as usual

From Jon Erickson:

A Green Stimulus to Rebuild the Economy, from The Next System Project

Jons video

From Juliet Schor:

New Economy Roundup from the New Economy Coalition

After the Gig: How the Sharing economy got Hijacked Her new book out soon

True Wealth

From Nate Hagens:

Systemic Implications of the Coronavirus Post Carbon Institute

The Human Predicament 55-minute video summary of situation and framework for response

Economics for the Future Beyond the Superorganism Ecological Economics paper

Where are We Going? Transcript of 2018 Earth Day talk

The Human Predicament Short Course 4 videos totaling 75 minutes, made for all University of Minnesota freshmen on human behavior, energy, environment and what to do

Reality 101 -mini course 5-hour video series summarizing overview of the University of Minnesota course Reality 101 in particular the energy section is important for journalists

New Economy Coalition

The Democracy Collaborative

Cooperation Jackson Jackson, MS

Post Carbon Institute

From Chelsea Green:

The ALL NEW Dont Think of an Elephant! George Lakoff

Doughnut Economics Kate Raworth

Thinking in Systems Donella Meadows

From What Is to What If Rob Hopkins

Systems Thinking for Social Change David Peter Stroh

From Island Press:

Free books on resilience thinking.

From Jon:

We have tons and tons of reactive stories about the fast variables, the changes that are happening and measurable and right before our eyes like unemployment. We dont have enough proactive stories about the slow variables. The pandemic came as no surprise to people who have been working in the field of environmental public health. Weve been connecting the dots for a long time between the deterioration of ecosystems and the emergence of both old and new infectious disease. But no one is telling these stories of the slow deterioration of systems.

From Juliet:

Cities and towns doing moratoriums on foreclosures

The importance of self-organizing in the presence of state failure, such as the 3D printing of medical equipment, self-help groups for medical aid.

From Nate:

GDP is 99.5% correlated with energy, so it would more effectively be called GDB Gross Domestic Burning. Because for every product in our world, a little fire was started somewhere on the planet to provide it. But all the laughter and joy I get from my dog is not included in GDP. You go for a walk in the woods all these things that are not quantified in our success of how we enjoy our lives are not remotely included. But taking trips and other things boost GDP. We have to get away from the burning and move toward the well-being. Look for these types of stories.

Anyone who thinks that endless growth in a limited world is possible is either a madman or an economist. Kenneth Boulding

Dale Willman is an award-winning journalist and educator. He has joined the Earth Institute to create programming that will help journalists and other science communicators in their efforts to translate science information for a general audience.

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After the Pandemic: Designing a Just and Resilient Economy For All - State of the Planet

Human Behavior

Letters to the Editor – The Nation

Media effects

According to the World Health Organization (WHO) in the year 2020, approximately 1.5million people will commit suicide. Suicide and social media have become a relatively new phenomenon, it is influencing suicide-related behavior. Social media is changing human behavior especially affecting teenagers.

Nowadays, people are mostly busy in their online world which causes mental and emotional issues leading them to depression. Social media is promoting different kinds of pro-suicidal sites, message boards, chat rooms and forums. Our youth has completely lost their self-control, their minds are under the control of media influencers.

Their thinking power has finished, the first media was in our control but now we are controlled by media. Children are spending their time on social media and have no time for their family which is a really serious issue. They feel their selves happy in the fake world of the internet and cut off from the real-life. They start living in the world of fantasy which later on results in mental health issues.

Parents should look after their children, its their responsibility to check their children and their activities on social media. They should tell their children that life is no bed of roses. I also request the authorities that they should ban such sites which affect our behavior, mental health, and ethics. Otherwise, the result will be really worse for our future.

SHAHZADI HUSSAIN,

Karachi.

Rise of e-commerce

E-Commerce is an opportunity to bring people in the mainstream and connect them with international markets through global online platforms. It can facilitate freelancers and start-ups run by young people, women, and rural workers especially the ones involved in manufacturing/supplying local handicrafts.

I believe this is the break businesses are looking for in these tough economic times. Many of the institutions are now conducting training on e-commerce completely free of cost to build up the skills of youngsters and entrepreneurs which would help them to boost their profit returns even more

While capitalising on such efforts, Pakistan can step up and take measures to increase the competitiveness of local e-commerce players, thereby enhancing their share in local and global trade.

KANWAL ASHRAF,

Islamabad.

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Letters to the Editor - The Nation

Human Behavior

We call it panic, the world calls it preparedness – Pakistan Today

It was a warm day of July 2015 in Hawaii, when we Fellows of the Crisis Management Course at APCSS role-played handling of a health epidemic with potential to be pandemic in South Asian Region. To our utter surprise we as crisis managers had to communicate with Border Control Forces, the Health Minister, National Security Officers, the Police, the Fire Department, the Finance Ministry, the Military officials of the affected country and its neighbors, and above all the Prime Minister along with his bureaucracy, and the border security of neighborly countries. What the heck had we to do with all these stiff collar people, we thought. We were the national crisis management team to deal with crisis-specific stuff only, but now with Covid-19 termed a pandemic by the WHO, it all seems so true!

The mock-up opened avenues unknown to us, making us realize how close knitted disaster management is to human and international security. It did enable us to realize that making consented decisions an all-inclusive approach taking all stakeholders on board, is the answer to hindrances, both human and situational in crises. At the policymaking level understanding the importance of information dissemination and risk communication as a safety weapon, like a missile in war, is absolutely vital.

The first coronavirus case was reported on 26 February in Karachi. The evidence suggest the source was imported not indigenous, and now we have reports of cases being transmitted within communities, which is alarming as economic factors and inability to earn a living might be a precipitating factor for political unrest starting from the lowest income earning population. Today, with infected cases crossing, 2400 Pakistan needs to realize that earthquake 2005 was an eye opener for the world as a whole, but as it was restricted to Pakistan, the world rushed for help. Covid-19 has affected the whole world, made health systems collapse and left corpses to pick so the international help scenario might not be the same as in 2005. A recent analysis by Foreign Policy argues that Covid-19 might be a precipitating factor for political unrest in economically weak states as the world is facing its own economic crisis. The report warns that with main aid providers busy in their own countries, there is serious risk that economically weak states may face debt, deaths, mass unemployment and political unrest due to economic collapse leading to toppling governments around the world.

In a crisis no one person is Aristotle and its OK to build a team and learn, thats how we converted the adversity into opportunity in past and only group approach involving all stake holders is the answer, you dont need to hire people to trace experts already working in government. We need to get going, the sooner we realize this, the better it will be for Pakistan

With the Army now actively participating, we are hopeful to get real data which is necessary for further planning. Keeping in view the unknown nature of this virus and its ability to adapt and change, we cannot purely depend on kneejerk reactions but must understand that this virus is amongst us and here to stay for a while. With rapid growth capability, remaining dormant in many, thus infecting others without the host knowing he or she is a carrier and likely relapse of cured population after months, it poses a unique challenge to think innovatively keeping in view the cultural, social and economic fabric of our society. Are we ready for the future?

Comparing our reaction versus the worlds, we saw while the Australian Government took a fairly aggressive approach, making the National Response Strategy keeping the worst-case scenario in mind, saying it was better to be prepared that to avoid fear as we are attacked by an entity we do not know much about, we on the other hand focused on not scaring the masses, thus no proactive awareness campaigns were seen initially. The world made nearly 100 academic journals, societies, institutes, and companies data on COVID-19 available free of cost available, for the outbreaks duration. I wonder how many of us took advantage of this research covering social, economic, psychological and political impacts of the pandemic and sharing input with policy makers to make consented and long-term decisions? Unfortunately we are still stuck at fight-alone mode.

Another example, as the virus could affect employees, NASA charted out a four-stage response plan for Civil Servants. Using a predictive model for disease, each stage caters for severity and frequency of spread and discusses a four-point agenda from access to center, health and safety of employees, meetings and events and travel of employees so that even if the situation gets really bad, work does not suffer. The good thing is the plan refers to Center of Disease Control which has updated Travel details warnings and awareness, meaning all relevant departments are well synchronized. Can we learn and implement by replicating an already good plan making changes suited to our cultural and social needs? Have we spelled out a COVID-19 strategy for government and private office employees knowing most of the lower staff comes to work by bus?

Other examples are of John Hopkins University giving public access to its live database worldwide, the Royal College of Obstetricians recommending social distancing for pregnant women, while chemical and biological journals are tracking the virus plasma to hinder its growth. All this has gone open-source, so a world of knowledge is right there to take, learn and prevent the disease, but you need a team for that. Do we have a database and names of experts of disaster managers in the country? Where are the trained teams who handled earthquake 2005? Do we know past strategies and policies, tried and tested for previous disasters stacked somewhere in stores? Or are we re-inventing the wheel? If so will COVID-19 wait?

A tried and tested cluster approach must be taken with short-, medium- and long-term goals. Clusters could include, Health, Livelihood, Security, Water and Power, Sanitation, Risk Communication Awareness and Community Engagement, Gender and Vulnerable Groups (including women and children stranded in jails), Economic Revival and Stability, Agriculture and Research and Knowledge Management (not medical, but from a human behavior and change perspective). On War footing each Cluster should prepare action plans with short-, medium- and long-term measures while a research group has to back them up with latest research and the media should be made partner in Crisis Management.

In a crisis no one person is Aristotle and its OK to build a team and learn, thats how we converted the adversity into opportunity in past and only group approach involving all stake holders is the answer, you dont need to hire people to trace experts already working in government. We need to get going, the sooner we realize this, the better it will be for Pakistan.

The writer is Fellow of the Asia Pacific Center for Security Studies Hawaii on Crisis Management

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We call it panic, the world calls it preparedness - Pakistan Today

Human Behavior

Model behavior: Estimates of COVID-19 spread all over the place – FOX 9

Developing a definitive model for COVID-19 is a difficult task.

MINNEAPOLIS (FOX 9) - There is no COVID-19 crystal ball, so health officials and the public alike are eager to learn about mathematical projections of how the virus will spread. But the predictions can vary dramatically, because models are not magic. Its hard when what you want is the certainty of a high school math test, but thats not what we have, said Maggie Koerth, a science journalist based in Minneapolis.

COVID-19 models vary. Here's why.

Koerth details the technical difficulties in developing a COVID-19 model in a story calledWhy Its So Fricking Hard To Make A Good Covid-19 Model for the statistical web site FiveThirtyEight.She said it is called a novel virus for a reason. This is all new.None of these models is the right model. Theyre all going to be different, said Koerth. Youre not waiting for one model to prove the other wrong, theyre just offering a range of possible outcomes.The problem, as Koerth explains, is that every model is based on assumptions, that are based on other assumptions and variables, which rely on incomplete data from other counties or other cities in the U.S.Koerth said there is no standard top down reporting of epidemiological data in the U.S., so it is difficult to compare apples to apples.In Minnesota, a model developed by the Minnesota Health Department (MDH) and the University of Minnesota School of Public Health, predicted that with mitigation efforts, like a stay-at-home order and social distancing, the pandemic in Minnesota would peak in June with two million people infected, and tens of thousands could die. MDH said this model has state specific demographic and health data. Health Commissioner Jan Malcolm said the model was initially run ten days ago, and they plan on re-running the model soon with updated data.A separate model, developed by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, indicated the pandemic would peak sooner in Minnesota, but would be less severe. The IHME model predicted the peak in Minnesota would arrive in April, killing slightly more than a thousand people. That model relied on mortality data and is being updated daily.A model from the Harvard Global Health Institute laid out multiple scenarios for the Twin Cities based on the percentage of the community infected, predicting that a moderate outbreak with 40 percent infected over 12 months would mean 214,000 patients, overwhelming the health care system.One of the earliest and most models for the U.S. was from Londons Imperial College, and predicted if the U.S. did nothing, 81 percent would become infected and 2.2 million would die. With mitigation effects, there would be half the number of deaths, according to the model.

FOX 9's Tom Lyden interviews science journalist Maggie Koerth on why different models for COVID-19 depict different outcomes.

At its most simplistic, the formula for such a model could fit on a napkin: infection rate x fatality rate x susceptible population = the number who will die. The reality is a much bigger, more complicated data set, with some relatively unknown or hard to predict variables.The biggest obstacle for any model may be the moving target of an infection rate, which is largely unknown in the U.S. because there has been so little surveillance testing.Even a fatality rate is not a straightforward figure, but can vary dramatically by age, health conditions, and available hospital capacity. There are, in fact, multiple fatality rates in a given population.There is also the symptomaticity ratio, which is how many of those who test positive for COVID-19 are displaying symptoms and how many are asymptomatic. That number is key to understanding asymptomatic spreaders and super spreader events.Koerth said the Diamond Princess cruise ship offered a unique opportunity to study a confined group that was more widely tested. Research on the Diamond Princess revealed that only half of those testing positive were symptomatic, the others were asymptomatic, a much larger percentage of asymptomatic carriers than researchers had expected. It is also unknown how many of those who recover from COVID-19 will have immunity, or how long they will be contagious. Koerth said here are still questions about the virus itself: How long can it survive on a surface? How far can it travel in the air?Finally, all the models are now considering various mitigation efforts, like a stay-at-home order, that are highly dependent on human behavior, which can change over time. One thing you can take away is this is a moving target and youre not going to get a clear answer, said Koerth, who said each model is simply providing a range and trajectory. But she understands there is a strong psychological need for answers, from the public and policy makers, and the science is still not exact. Its asking people to be at ease with the unknown, with some scary stuff, but thats about the best thats available right now.

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Model behavior: Estimates of COVID-19 spread all over the place - FOX 9

Human Behavior

Liberation during the coronavirus pandemic – The Ecologist

The SARS-CoV-2 virus and subsequent COVID-19 disease is present in nearly every country and has of today infected more870,000 people globally. However, withoutinternational public lockdowns routine testingthis figure would be much higher.

When new pandemics occur an almost immediate reaction is to pinpoint the blame on someone, or something.

Despite not knowing the exact origin of the virus, one fact is for certain COVID-19 is a zoonotic disease that began in humans when it was directly transmitted from a non-human animal, to a human one.

Zoonotic

Early claims of snake or bat origin were frequent in the media, and more recently the pangolin otherwise known as the most highly trafficked animal in the world seems to be center stage.

Zoonotic diseases can have no negative impacts in certain species and deadly impacts in others, and blame is unjustly given to non-human animals when there is no intent behind the cause. In other words, whether the origin lies in a snake, bat, pangolin or any other species, any blame that we may feel towards that species is unnecessary.

Finding the origin of COVID-19 may be essential to finding a cure, however it is not essential to limiting the spread of the disease, which we can do by changing our behaviour.

The industrialisation of the farming sector has led to ever increasing numbers of animals who are reared for food, numbers almost impossible to imagine. Despite what we would like to think, these animals often live their whole lives in cramped conditions where disease spreads quickly, easily and lethally.

Adding fuel to the fire is stress, which reduces immune system capabilities and increases disease susceptibility. As we know, stress can be both physical and mental, and these feelings are as present in farmed animals as they are in us.

The threat that products from animals have to human health is vast. Campylobacter has been described by the World Health Organisation as the most important food borne pathogens, but this doesnt originate from a seemingly exotic animals. Approximately 50-75 percent of the chickens on sale in the UK are infected with Campylobacter, which lead to 700,000 reported cases and a NHS cost of over 710 million annually.

Disease outbreaks

But we are not alone on this planet, and outbreaks of disease affect more than just humans. Avian pathogenic E. coli, commonly spread by poor hygiene in cramped conditions, causes disease in chickens which is described as causing significant economic losses [to the] industry worldwide.

But this loss is far beyond just economic value in the UK alone at least 10 million chickens die unnecessarily from outbreaks.

Little is known about the pain they suffer during the disease, but with fatality rates so high we can make our own assumptions. Researchers in the field have described Avian pathogenic E. coli as not well understood and others have expressed concern of this developing into a zoonotic disease - consumer demand for products from animals at rock bottom prices could potentially speed up this process.

A vegan diet, which excludes all forms products from animals, can greatly reduce the risk of zoonotic disease outbreaks. This nutritious and kind diet has been recognised by both the British Dietetic Association and the American Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics as being suitable for every age and stage of life.

The Vegan Society has extensive online sources to ensure you are meeting micronutrient such as B12 -and macronutrient such as protein targets which are suited to your individual needs.

Of course, a vegan diet alone will not stop the spread of zoonotic diseases. Consider for a moment, that if you come into close contact with any other person, then there is a chance of catching an infectious disease.

We are all animals. So, when you come into close contact with any non-human animal, again there is the chance of catching an infectious disease and vice versa. The overwhelming majority of individuals say they love animals, but to love animals we must do this in ways which respect their natural ways of life.

Time for reflection

Non-human animals are not here to entertain, feed or clothe us. They are not here for cosmetic or pharmaceutical purposes. Yet within these industries, large numbers of non-human animals are mass bred to live short and painful lives in environments where the spread of zoonotic disease is a continuous threat to both the species bred within them and the workers in each industry.

In this time of uncertainty, where many countries around the world have gone into lockdown, millions of individuals are using this as a moment to reflect on their lives and the world we live in.

We should be working towards a liberated world in which no non-human animals are artificially bred for any human purposes. This is because non-human animals are entitled to live for their own sake, following their own natural behaviours in their natural habitats.

Most humans share the value, 'it is wrong to cause harm unnecessarily'. But many of us are currently taught to be ignorant of the harm which artificially breeding non-human animals causes.

Now is a good time to reflect upon the harms which our non-human animal exploitation industries cause to all the non-human animals involved, and to us as humans as well.

This Author

Louisianna Waring is the insight and commercial policy officer at The Vegan Society. She has a background in both food policy and animal science and is passionate about animal rights. Interested in veganism and the environment? Why not take the seven-day planet-saving vegan pledge atwww.vegansociety.com/plateup

More information about zoonotic diseases can be found in the Compassion in World Farming and World Society for the Protection of Animals report.

Also anticipated is the release of an upcoming feature length documentary exploring the nature of disease and its link with human behavior, produced by Keegan Kuhn (What the Health) and directed by Alex Lockwood (73 Cows).

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Liberation during the coronavirus pandemic - The Ecologist

Human Behavior

Social distancing works just ask lobsters, ants and vampire bats – Thehour.com

(The Conversation is an independent and nonprofit source of news, analysis and commentary from academic experts.)

Dana Hawley, Virginia Tech and Julia Buck, University of North Carolina Wilmington

(THE CONVERSATION) Social distancing to combat COVID-19 is profoundly impacting society, leaving many people wondering whether it will actually work. As disease ecologists, we know that nature has an answer.

Animals as diverse as monkeys, lobsters, insects and birds can detect and avoid sick members of their species. Why have so many types of animals evolved such sophisticated behaviors in response to disease? Because social distancing helps them survive.

In evolutionary terms, animals that effectively socially distance during an outbreak improve their chances of staying healthy and going on to produce more offspring, which also will socially distance when confronted with disease.

We study the diverse ways in which animals use behaviors to avoid infection, and why behaviors matter for disease spread. While animals have evolved a variety of behaviors that limit infection, the ubiquity of social distancing in group-living animals tells us that this strategy has been favored again and again in animals faced with high risk of contagious disease.

What can we learn about social distancing from other animals, and how are their actions like and unlike what humans are doing now?

Feed the sick, but protect the queen

Social insects are some of the most extreme practitioners of social distancing in nature. Many types of ants live in tight quarters with hundreds or even thousands of close relatives. Much like our day care centers, college dormitories and nursing homes, these colonies can create optimal conditions for spreading contagious diseases.

In response to this risk, ants have evolved the ability to socially distance. When a contagious disease sweeps through their society, both sick and healthy ants rapidly change their behavior in ways that slow disease transmission. Sick ants self-isolate, and healthy ants reduce their interaction with other ants when disease is present in the colony.

Healthy ants even close rank around the most vulnerable colony members the queens and nurses by keeping them isolated from the foragers that are most likely to introduce germs from outside. Overall, these measures are highly effective at limiting disease spread and keeping colony members alive.

Many other types of animals also choose exactly who to socially distance from, and conversely, when to put themselves at risk. For example, mandrills a type of monkey continue to care for sick family members even as they actively avoid sick individuals to whom they are not related. In an evolutionary sense, caring for a sick family member may allow an animal to pass on its genes through that family members offspring.

Further, some animals maintain essential social interactions in the face of sickness while foregoing less critical ones. For example, vampire bats continue to provide food for their sick groupmates, but avoid grooming them. This minimizes contagion risk while still preserving forms of social support that are most essential to keeping sick family members alive, such as food sharing.

These nuanced forms of social distancing minimize costs of disease while maintaining the benefits of social living. It should come as no surprise that evolution favors them in many types of animals.

Altruism makes us human

Human behavior in the presence of disease also bears the signature of evolution. This indicates that our hominid ancestors faced many of the same pressures from contagious disease that we are facing today.

Like social ants, we are protecting the most vulnerable members of our society from COVID-19 infection by ensuring that older individuals and those with pre-existing conditions stay away from potentially contagious people. Like monkeys and bats, we also practice nuanced social distancing, reducing non-essential social contacts while still providing essential care for sick family members.

There also are important differences. For example, in addition to caring for sick family members, humans sometimes increase their own risk by caring for unrelated individuals, such as friends and neighbors. And health care workers go further, actively seeking out and helping precisely those who many of us carefully avoid.

Altruism isnt the only behavior that distinguishes human response to disease outbreaks. Other animals must rely on subtle cues to detect illness among group members, but we have cutting-edge technologies that make it possible to detect pathogens rapidly and then isolate and treat sick individuals. And humans can communicate health threats globally in an instant, which allows us to proactively institute behaviors that mitigate disease. Thats a huge evolutionary advantage.

Finally, thanks to virtual platforms, humans can maintain social connections without direct physical contact. This means that unlike other animals, we can practice physical rather than social distancing, which lets us preserve some of the important benefits of group living while minimizing disease risk.

Worth the disruption

The evidence from nature is clear: Social distancing is an effective tool for reducing disease spread. It is also a tool that can be implemented more rapidly and more universally than almost any other. Unlike vaccination and medication, behavioral changes dont require development or testing.

However, social distancing can also incur significant and sometimes unsustainable costs. Some highly social animals, like banded mongooses, do not avoid group members even when they are visibly sick; the evolutionary costs of social distancing from their relatives may simply be too high. As we are currently experiencing, social distancing also imposes severe costs of many kinds in human societies, and these costs are often borne disproportionately by the most vulnerable people.

Given that social distancing can be costly, why do so many animals do it? In short, because behaviors that protect us from disease ultimately allow us to enjoy social living a lifestyle that offers myriad benefits, but also carries risks. By implementing social distancing when its necessary, humans and other animals can continue to reap the diverse benefits of social living in the long term, while minimizing the costs of potentially deadly diseases when they arise.

Social distancing can be profoundly disruptive to our society, but it can also stop a disease outbreak in its tracks. Just ask ants.

[You need to understand the coronavirus pandemic, and we can help. Read The Conversations newsletter.]

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article here: https://theconversation.com/social-distancing-works-just-ask-lobsters-ants-and-vampire-bats-135383.

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Social distancing works just ask lobsters, ants and vampire bats - Thehour.com