Category Archives: Human Behavior

Tomorrow is good: A psychologist in every corona crisis management team – Innovation Origins

Over the past decade, technology has often been labeled as disruptive. This is a characterization with a highly technophobic undertone. Personally, I prefer to focus on the opportunities and capabilities that technology has to offer. Especially now since were confronted with a disruption of unprecedented magnitude on a global scale COVID-19 it has become clear that technology is the link that connects it all. At present, technology is virtually the only option where human interconnectivity is concerned. Whereas most people had never heard of Microsoft Teams or Zoom the week before, a week later you saw that Teams and Zoom, in addition to toilet paper, soap and paracetamol, had become the basic necessities of life. So, people need technology in times of actual disruption. People exhibit different behaviors in a crisis and therefore have different needs.

This shift in human behavior in times of crisis is more than just fascinating. Apart from all the horrors that corona entails, it also represents one huge and natural experiment. How will people behave when they suddenly have to socially distance themselves from each other? The conduct that people will engage in during such a huge natural experiment depends largely on how an experiment is framed.

A good example of the correlation between framing and behavior is the experiment which is now well-known as Das Experiment. An experiment that was even filmed because of its startling outcomes. The Stanford Prison Experiment, as the experiment is actually originally called, shows that when you give individuals another framework, in this case the framework of a prisoner or of a guard, they start to show completely different behavior as a result of this framing.

Yet an even better example, and one which merits less ethical controversy, is the experiment conducted by Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman back in the 1970s. In this experiment, Kahneman, together with his good scientist friend Amos Tversky, explores the impact of framing on peoples behavior where making choices is concerned. For the experiment, the following context is presented:

Imagine the US is preparing for the outbreak of an unusual Asian disease, which is likely to kill 600 people. Two separate programs are proposed for combating the disease.

Aside from Bill Gates with his prophetic Ted Talk from 2015, Tversky and Kahneman also belong in the ranks of visionaries. They were already talking around forty years ago about the outbreak of an Asian disease where people would die on other continents. The crux of their experiment lies in the way they described the two programs that were designed to combat the disease. They made two variants of them. In the first variant they described the two programs as follows:

The expected economic outcome is the same for both programs. After all, the expected outcome for program B is that 200 lives will also be saved (1/3 x 600 + 2/3 x 0). The difference is that this expected outcome is achieved without any risk in program A. Whereas a risk factor is built into program B. Given that most people are averse to risk, they tend to choose program A (72 %). The programs were framed differently in the second variant:

These two programs are identical to the previous two. After all, if you save 200 out of 600 people, 400 will automatically die. The results are exactly the same, except that the framing is different. Instead of saving lives, we are now talking about losing lives. When there is something to lose, people suddenly show completely different behavior. They immediately no longer shy away from the risks. In fact, they seek out risks because they hate the idea of losing so much that they do everything in their power to prevent it.

This is pretty much the standard behavior you see in casinos. But you also see that behavior with the outbreak of an Asian disease. In the second variant, the majority (78 %) opt for the more risky program B. So, despite the fact that the choices are actually identical, people tend to behave differently when you frame the options in terms of fatalities rather than lives saved. You can probably imagine how remarkable I think it is that in all the daily statistics about COVID-19, you can find the number of deaths per day and the number of hospitalizations per day, but you cant find the number of recoveries per day anywhere.

This column is a plea for including psychologists and behavioral scientists in every Corona crisis management team. On an ( inter)national level, on a regional level, but also on an organizational level. In his Ted Talk back in 2015, Bill Gates makes a case for a global health system. This entails setting up a specialist team of virologists and biologists which is thoroughly prepared to deal with epidemics. My wish would be that this team also includes psychologists and behavioral scientists. After all, the spread of viruses does not happen all by itself but is the result of human behavior. Therefore, in order to prevent the spread of viruses, we need people with an understanding of human behavior on the frontline.

This column is also an appeal for the spreading of knowledge instead of viruses. The research described here, and a wonderful series of other experiments that together form the Prospect Theory, earned Kahneman the Nobel Prize in Economics. It is my personal conviction that it is precisely at the time of this Corona disruption that everyone should have a look at this research. Only with proper exposure to knowledge can we prevent virus infections.

About this column

In a weekly column, alternately written by Bert Overlack, Mary Fiers,Peter de Kock, Eveline van Zeeland, Hans Helsloot, Lucien Engelen, Tessie Hartjes, Jan Wouters, Katleen Gabriels, and Auke Hoekstra, Innovation Origins tries to find out what the future will look like. These columnists, occasionally supplemented with guest bloggers, are all working in their own way on solutions for the problems of our time. So tomorrow will be good. Read all previous articles in the series here.

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Tomorrow is good: A psychologist in every corona crisis management team - Innovation Origins

Scripps CEO: Health-Care-Based Trigger Needed Before Reopening Society from COVID-19 Restrictions – GlobeNewswire

SAN DIEGO, April 14, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Scripps Health today released the following open letter from its President and CEO Chris Van Gorder, advocating the need for a health-care-based trigger for reopening society.

I have been in health care now for more than 40 years and have always been proud of my profession and community service but I have to admit, I have never been prouder to be both in health care and law enforcement than I am today.

For health care providers the physicians, nurses, technicians and support teams, the COVID-19 pandemic is their 9-11. Its their Pearl Harbor. For the first responders, this is a new kind of 9-11. But whatever the cause, the first responders are still running in while others run out. This time, though, they are joined by our committed health care providers.

Im also proud of how our hospitals and health care systems have come together as they always do in times of disaster to work together for the good of community. Today in San Diego County, patients are being cared for by a health care community not a group of independent hospitals and health systems. And that health care community is working hand-in-glove with our elected officials and County Public Health.

I want to extend thanks to these officials for listening to health care leaders several weeks ago when we asked to shut down much of San Diego County to flatten the curve. We asked for that so as not to overwhelm the health care system as we have seen elsewhere in Asia, Europe and even parts of the United States. And cautiously speaking it appears we have been successful so far. Those difficult decisions and the support of our community businesses and citizens alike have saved lives and countless heartbreak.

But now, I hear talk of easing those restrictions and Im concerned once again for several reasons.

There are troubling stories coming out of Baja, Mexico that indicate that our neighbors to the south have not been as successful as we have been in flattening the COVID curve, and we know that many people still cross the border every day for economic and personal reasons. Scripps has many employees who live in Mexico and we are concerned for them. This could be an issue for a border community like San Diego.

We know human behavior. Once we start to ease restrictions, people will start to interface more in public and we could very likely see another spike in patients thus making the success to date a moot point and a wasted effort.

And we still do not have the medical supplies necessary to treat patients in a surge, nor do we have a reliable source of resupply for hospital protective equipment for our staff and physicians.

So, I propose a trigger to start easing restrictions and reopening businesses. These will be tough decisions, I realize, and ones I dont have to make.

I learned a long time ago that to win a battle and this is indeed a health care battle your frontline soldiers must have the supplies and equipment needed to protect themselves and win. Battles are often won by logistics not just by the soldiers.

So, I propose that the trigger to relax regulations and reopen society be when we are sure that our health care providers have all of the personal protective gear they need, along with the ventilators, pharmaceuticals and other supplies required to care for our COVID-19 patients and the other emergency patients we see on a daily basis. This means we should make sure that hospitals, skilled nursing facilities, long-term care facilities and home health agencies, as well as all of our first responders, have what they need to do the job.

COVID-19 is now community spread. Its not going away anytime soon. If the powers that be reopen society before we are ready, we will see a rebounding of cases and the health care providers will be on the front-line of that battle as they are today. So lets make sure if we see that spike, that we are ready this time.

Shame on us as a society if we reopen before we can give these heroes that assurance. We can do this and we should do this.

ABOUT SCRIPPS HEALTH

Founded in 1924 by philanthropist Ellen Browning Scripps, Scripps Healthis a nonprofit integrated health care delivery system based in San Diego, Calif. Scripps treats more than 600,000 patients annually through the dedication of 3,000 affiliated physicians and more than 15,000 employees among its five acute-care hospital campuses, home health care services, 28 outpatient centers and clinics, and hundreds of affiliated physician offices throughout the region.

Recognized as a leader in disease and injury prevention, diagnosis and treatment, Scripps is also at the forefront of clinical research. With three highly respected graduate medical education programs, Scripps is a longstanding member of the Association of American Medical Colleges. Scripps has been ranked five times as one of the nations best health care systems by Truven Health Analytics. Its hospitals are ranked No. 1 in San Diego County and among the best in the nation by U.S. News & World Report. Scripps also is recognized by Advisory Board, Fortune and Working Mother magazine as one of the best places in the nation to work. More information can be found at http://www.scripps.org.

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Scripps CEO: Health-Care-Based Trigger Needed Before Reopening Society from COVID-19 Restrictions - GlobeNewswire

Your Brain Evolved to Hoard Supplies and Shame Others for Doing the Same – The Skanner

The media is replete with COVID-19 stories about people clearing supermarket shelves and the backlash against them. Have people gone mad? How can one individual be overfilling his own cart, while shaming others who are doing the same?

As a behavioral neuroscientist who has studied hoarding behavior for 25 years, I can tell you that this is all normal and expected. People are acting the way evolution has wired them.

The word "hoarding" might bring to mind relatives or neighbors whose houses are overfilled with junk. A small percentage of people do suffer from what psychologists call "hoarding disorder," keeping excessive goods to the point of distress and impairment.

But hoarding is actually a totally normal and adaptive behavior that kicks in any time there is an uneven supply of resources. Everyone hoards, even during the best of times, without even thinking about it. People like to have beans in the pantry, money in savings and chocolates hidden from the children. These are all hoards.

(Photo/Library of Congress/Dorethea Lange)Most Americans have had so much, for so long. People forget that, not so long ago, survival often depended on working tirelessly all year to fill root cellars so a family could last through a long, cold winter and still many died.

Similarly, squirrels work all fall to hide nuts to eat for the rest of the year. Kangaroo rats in the desert hide seeds the few times it rains and then remember where they put them to dig them back up later. A Clark's nutcracker can hoard over 10,000 pine seeds per fall and even remember where it put them.

Similarities between human behavior and these animals' are not just analogies. They reflect a deeply ingrained capacity for brains to motivate us to acquire and save resources that may not always be there. Suffering from hoarding disorder, stockpiling in a pandemic or hiding nuts in the fall all of these behaviors are motivated less by logic and more by a deeply felt drive to feel safer.

My colleagues and I have found that stress seems to signal the brain to switch into "get hoarding" mode. For example, a kangaroo rat will act very lazy if fed regularly. But if its weight starts to drop, its brain signals to release stress hormones that incite the fastidious hiding of seeds all over the cage.

Kangaroo rats will also increase their hoarding if a neighboring animal steals from them. Once, I returned to the lab to find the victim of theft with all his remaining food stuffed into his cheek pouches the only safe place.

A Clarks nutcracker stocking up on seeds isnt so different from a human being stocking up on ramen. (Photo Marshal Hedin/Flickr)People do the same. If in our lab studies my colleagues and I make them feel anxious, our study subjects want to take more stuff home with them afterward.

Demonstrating this shared inheritance, the same brain areas are active when people decide to take home toilet paper, bottled water or granola bars, as when rats store lab chow under their bedding the orbitofrontal cortex and nucleus accumbens, regions that generally help organize goals and motivations to satisfy needs and desires.

Damage to this system can even induce abnormal hoarding. One man who suffered frontal lobe damage had a sudden urge to hoard bullets. Another could not stop "borrowing" others' cars. Brains across species use these ancient neural systems to ensure access to needed items or ones that feel necessary.

So, when the news induces a panic that stores are running out of food, or that residents will be trapped in place for weeks, the brain is programmed to stock up. It makes you feel safer, less stressed, and actually protects you in an emergency.

At the same time they're organizing their own stockpiles, people get upset about those who are taking too much. That is a legitimate concern; it's a version of the "tragedy of the commons," wherein a public resource might be sustainable, but people's tendency to take a little extra for themselves degrades the resource to the point where it can no longer help anyone.

By shaming others on social media, for instance, people exert what little influence they have to ensure cooperation with the group. As a social species, human beings thrive when they work together, and have employed shaming even punishment for millennia to ensure that everyone acts in the best interest of the group.

And it works. Twitter users went after a guy reported to have hoarded 17,700 bottles of hand sanitizer in the hopes of turning a profit; he ended up donating all of it and is under investigation for price gouging. Who wouldn't pause before grabbing those last few rolls of TP when the mob is watching?

People will continue to hoard to the extent that they are worried. They will also continue to shame others who take more than what they consider a fair share. Both are normal and adaptive behaviors that evolved to balance one another out, in the long run.

But that's cold comfort for someone on the losing end of a temporary imbalance like a health care worker who did not have protective gear when they encountered a sick patient. The survival of the group hardly matters to the person who dies, or to their parent, child or friend.

One thing to remember is that the news selectively depicts stockpiling stories, presenting audiences with the most shocking cases. Most people are not charging $400 for a mask. Most are just trying to protect themselves and their families, the best way they know how, while also offering aid wherever they can. That's how the human species evolved, to get through challenges like this together.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article here. The Conversation is an independent and nonprofit source of news, analysis and commentary from academic experts.

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Your Brain Evolved to Hoard Supplies and Shame Others for Doing the Same - The Skanner

GUEST COLUMN: Society coming together to defeat this invisible threat – Wicked Local Mansfield

COVID-19 has changed the world. We have gone from living our lives as usual to a sudden new reality. A reality the country has not experienced in its history.

In an effort to keep its citizens as healthy as possible during this global pandemic, the US (along with a number of other countries) has taken sweeping measures in order to blunt the spread of the virus. These measures include social distancing (a new phrase in our vocabulary), recommendations to stay at home, discontinue travel (air, sea, train, bus, etc.) and limit contact with other people.

Major sectors of our economy have shut down and millions of people are out of work. Only essential businesses and services are allowed to stay open. It remains to be seen what the long-term impact will be but for the moment, COVID-19 has significantly changed our society

One of the major impacts of virus control is social distancing. Social distancing is the most important measure that all of us can take in order to contain the virus. As we move into uncharted waters with COVID-19, we are literally prohibited by the government to gather in crowded places.

It does make sense on the face of it as a way to reduce infection, but social distancing, as a human behavior, has a number of consequences with far-reaching effects. Things that we take for granted celebrations, milestones in life, religious ceremonies, gatherings with loved ones and friends cannot take place. Marriages, funerals, graduations, sporting events even trips to museums, restaurants, and churches are impacted at this moment as we cope with the virus. Life has changed in an extraordinary way.

One of the saving graces during this time of personal isolation is technology, specifically communication technology. In many cases, although we cannot be with our loved ones and friends in a real-time person to person, human experience, we can electronically be connected as if we were in the same room together. Smart phones, land lines, conferencing services, email, text, and instant messaging, are just some of the technologies that allow us to communicate across time and space. We can stay in touch at a moments notice.

This is very important, especially for those that are at more risk such as the elderly and infirm, for whom the virus could have deadly consequences. And because of this they do not venture out of their homes, unless it is crucial. Communication with loved ones and friends is essential, and is possible even in isolation, through technology.

Even in this era of high political passions, the virus has brought people together. In January, President Trump took quick action to put into place a travel ban specifically focused on the countries where the virus was creating havoc. The Congress, both Democrats and Republicans created and passed the largest and most comprehensive relief package in the history of the country $1 trillion, with more to come. The relief package is focused on saving the economy and supporting American workers during the economic shutdown.

Businesses of all kinds have done their part to help as they can. GM and Ford are manufacturing ventilators, Bob Kraft, owner of the Patriots, has shipped truckloads of medical supplies to New York, the Lego toy company is manufacturing 13,000 face visors per day. Even Mike Lindell, the MyPillow guy has revamped up his factory to produce up to 50,000 facemasks per day. To an impressive degree, people have put their differences aside to work for the greater good.

To underscore the seriousness of the pandemic, President Trump has created the Corona Virus Response Team, led by Vice President Pence and consisting of medical and governmental personnel at the highest levels. The team has done an admirable job in an unprecedented and fluid situation. Each day the team updates the country on the status of the virus indicating the locations that are experiencing the highest rate of infection and death, discussing the medical initiatives, medicines, and technologies that have been most effective, as well as answering every question from the White House pool of reporters - Q&A sessions often lasting an hour or more each day. The administration, to its credit, has been informative and transparent in its response to the virus,

We are in uncharted waters with the coronavirus pandemic. People are suffering and dying all around the country. The economy is shut down. Americans are in lockdown and isolated in their own homes. Our culture, our way of life has been impacted to a significant degree.

No doubt there will be a lasting impact as the coronavirus moves through the USA and world. However, it is clear to see that we as a people, as a society, understand the seriousness of the situation and have come together, putting disagreements aside, and doing everything in our power to defeat this invisible threat.

Thought of the Day The purpose of human life is to show compassion and the will to help others. Albert Schweitzer - humanitarian, philosopher, and physician

Steve Nickerson is a former long-term Mansfield resident and former US Marine. The opinions he expresses are his own.

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GUEST COLUMN: Society coming together to defeat this invisible threat - Wicked Local Mansfield

Large-scale analysis links glucose metabolism proteins in the brain to Alzheimer’s disease biology – National Institutes of Health

News Release

Monday, April 13, 2020

In the largest study to date of proteins related to Alzheimers disease, a team of researchers has identified disease-specific proteins and biological processes that could be developed into both new treatment targets and fluid biomarkers. The findings suggest that sets of proteins that regulate glucose metabolism, together with proteins related to a protective role of astrocytes and microglia the brains support cells are strongly associated with Alzheimers pathology and cognitive impairment.

The study, part of the Accelerating Medicines Partnership for Alzheimers Disease (AMP-AD), involved measuring the levels and analyzing the expression patterns of more than 3,000 proteins in a large number of brain and cerebrospinal fluid samples collected at multiple research centers across the United States. This research was funded by the National Institutes of Healths National Institute on Aging (NIA) and published April 13 in Nature Medicine.

This is an example of how the collaborative, open science platform of AMP-AD is creating a pipeline of discovery for new approaches to diagnosis, treatment and prevention of Alzheimers disease, said NIA Director Richard J. Hodes, M.D. This study exemplifies how research can be accelerated when multiple research groups share their biological samples and data resources.

The research team, led by Erik C.B. Johnson, M.D., Ph.D, Nicholas T. Seyfried, Ph.D., and Allan Levey, M.D., Ph.D., all at the Emory School of Medicine, Atlanta, analyzed patterns of protein expression in more than 2,000 human brain and nearly 400 cerebrospinal fluid samples from both healthy people and those with Alzheimers disease. The papers authors, which included Madhav Thambisetty, M.D., Ph.D., investigator and chief of the Clinical and Translational Neuroscience Section in the NIAs Laboratory of Behavioral Neuroscience, identified groups (or modules) of proteins that reflect biological processes in the brain.

The researchers then analyzed how the protein modules relate to various pathologic and clinical features of Alzheimers and other neurodegenerative disorders. They saw changes in proteins related to glucose metabolism and an anti-inflammatory response in glial cells in brain samples from both people with Alzheimers as well as in samples from individuals with documented brain pathology who were cognitively normal. This suggests, the researchers noted, that the anti-inflammatory processes designed to protect nerve cells may have been activated in response to the disease.

The researchers also set out to reproduce the findings in cerebrospinal fluid. The team found that, just like with brain tissue, the proteins involved in the way cells extract energy from glucose are increased in the spinal fluid from people with Alzheimers. Many of these proteins were also elevated in people with preclinical Alzheimers, i.e., individuals with brain pathology but without symptoms of cognitive decline. Importantly, the glucose metabolism/glial protein module was populated with proteins known to be genetic risk factors for Alzheimers, suggesting that the biological processes reflected by these protein families are involved in the actual disease process.

Weve been studying the possible links between abnormalities in the way the brain metabolizes glucose and Alzheimers-related changes for a while now, Thambisetty said. The latest analysis suggests that these proteins may also have potential as fluid biomarkers to detect the presence of early disease.

In a previous study, Thambisetty and colleagues, in collaboration with the Emory researchers, found a connection between abnormalities in how the brain breaks down glucose and the amount of the signature amyloid plaques and tangles in the brain, as well as the onset of symptoms such as problems with memory.

This large, comparative proteomic study points to massive changes across many biological processes in Alzheimers and offers new insights into the role of brain energy metabolism and neuroinflammation in the disease process, said Suzana Petanceska, Ph.D., program director at NIA overseeing the AMP-AD Target Discovery Program. The data and analyses from this study has already been made available to the research community and can be used as a rich source of new targets for the treatment and prevention of Alzheimers or serve as the foundation for developing fluid biomarkers.

Brain tissue samples came from autopsy of participants in Alzheimers disease research centers and several epidemiologic studies across the country, including the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging (BLSA), Religious Orders Study (ROS) and Memory and Aging Project (MAP), and Adult Changes in Thought (ACT) initiatives. The brain collections also contained samples from individuals with six other neurodegenerative disorders as well as samples representing normal aging, which enabled the discovery of molecular signatures specific for Alzheimers. Cerebrospinal fluid samples were collected from study participants at the Emory Goizueta Alzheimers Disease Research Center. These and other datasets are available to the research community through the AD Knowledge Portal, the data repository for the AMP-AD Target Discovery Program, and other NIA supported team-science projects operating under open science principles.

This press release describes a basic research finding. Basic research increases our understanding of human behavior and biology, which is foundational to advancing new and better ways to prevent, diagnose, and treat disease. Science is an unpredictable and incremental process each research advance builds on past discoveries, often in unexpected ways. Most clinical advances would not be possible without the knowledge of fundamental basic research.

The research in this study is funded by NIH grants R01AG053960, R01AG057911, R01AG061800, RF1AG057471, RF1AG057470, R01AG061800, R01AG057911, R01AG057339, U01AG061357, P50AG025688, RF1AG057470, RF1AG051633, P30AG10161, R01AG15819, R01AG17917, U01AG61356, R01AG056533, K08NS099474, U01AG046170, RF1AG054014, RF1AG057440, R01AG057907, U01AG052411, P30AG10124, U01AG046161, R01AG050631, R01AG053960, R01AG057339, U01AG061357, P50AG005146, U24NS072026, and P30AG19610.

About the National Institute on Aging (NIA): NIA leads the U.S. federal government effort to conduct and support research on aging and the health and well-being of older people. Learn more about age-related cognitive change and neurodegenerative diseases via NIAs Alzheimer's and related Dementias Education and Referral (ADEAR) Center website. For information about a broad range of aging topics, visit the main NIA website and stay connected.

About the National Institutes of Health (NIH):NIH, the nation's medical research agency, includes 27 Institutes and Centers and is a component of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. NIH is the primary federal agency conducting and supporting basic, clinical, and translational medical research, and is investigating the causes, treatments, and cures for both common and rare diseases. For more information about NIH and its programs, visit http://www.nih.gov.

NIHTurning Discovery Into Health

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Large-scale analysis links glucose metabolism proteins in the brain to Alzheimer's disease biology - National Institutes of Health

Renewable energy is the only way forward – Opinion – recordonline.com – Middletown, NY – Times Herald-Record

The world still relies far too much on burning fossil fuels for energy, but an annual accounting of new energy sources carries some heartening news: Nearly 75 percent of new electricity generation capacity last year involved renewable energy - an all-time record.

Yes, the world still relies too much on burning fossil fuel to create energy. But the 2019 annual report from the International Renewable Energy Agency shows that the world continues to move in the right direction, at least in some areas, as it has for the past decade.

Carbon Brief, a British-based nonprofit covering climate science, notes that too many countries are still building too many coal-fired power plants, particularly in Asia, Africa and the Middle East.

Over the last 20 years, the world - driven by China and India - has doubled its coal-fired capacity to about 2,045 gigawatts, Carbon Brief reports, adding that another 200 gigawatts in coal-fired capacity are under construction, with 300 gigawatts more on planning boards. That growth contrasts with significant net reductions in coal-fired capacity through the retirement of plants in the U.S. and Europe, and a slowdown of new construction.

Notably, much of that coal power is being replaced by natural-gas-fueled plants, which produce far less greenhouse gas emissions than coal plants but nonetheless contribute to global warming.

So the faster the world can minimize reliance on burning fossil fuels, the better chance we have at limiting the rise in global temperatures to 1.5 degrees Celsius over preindustrial levels, the limit scientists (yes there are such people walking among us) say we need to observe if we are to avoid the worst effects of our profligate carbon emissions.

According to Carbon Brief, observing that 1.5-degree Celsius limit will require us to reduce global coal use by 80 percent this decade.

The current coronavirus pandemic has, at least temporarily, made a significant impact on greenhouse gas emissions. But that reflects a stalled economy rather than smart energy consumption choices. The pandemic is a naturally occurring threat to humans, as were SARS and MERS before it. Global warming, by contrast, is being driven by human behavior; it is a self-inflicted crisis.

We can best address the climate crisis by changing practices, by converting our global economy from fossil fuels to renewable sources, by using the force of our collective will to change our collective behavior and reduce the damage our actions inflict on the environment, which we rely on for our very survival.

The stats that show we are moving in the right direction, albeit it too slowly, are a positive sign during these trying days.

But they are also a further spur to action. We can see where decisions, policies and actions lead to positive effects, but also where continued self-destructive actions - beginning with burning coal - imperil us all.

And that threat lies far beyond the reach of a vaccine.

Scott Martelle, Los Angeles Times

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Renewable energy is the only way forward - Opinion - recordonline.com - Middletown, NY - Times Herald-Record

Psychiatry and the Human Condition: Joanna Moncrieff, MD – Psychiatric Times

CONVERSATIONS IN CRITICAL PSYCHIATRY

Conversations in Critical Psychiatry is an interview series aimed to engage prominent critics within and outside the profession who have made meaningful criticisms of psychiatry and have offered constructive alternative perspectives to the current status quo.

Joanna Moncrieff, MD, is Professor of Critical and Social Psychiatry at University College London and works as a consultant in community psychiatry in London. She has researched and written about theories of drug action, drug efficacy, the subjective experience of taking psychiatric drugs; decision-making; the history of drug treatment; and the history, politics, and philosophy of psychiatry more generally. She is currently leading a UK government-funded study of antipsychotic reduction and discontinuation, called the RADAR study (Research into Antipsychotic Discontinuation and Reduction). She is one of the founders and the co-chairperson of the Critical Psychiatry Network. She has authored numerous papers and several books including The Myth of the Chemical Cure (Palgrave Macmillan, 2008); The Bitterest Pills: The Troubling Story of Antipsychotic Drugs (Palgrave Macmillan, 2013); and A Straight-Talking Introduction to Psychiatric Drugs (PCCS Publishers, 2013).

Dr Moncrieff s views on psychopharmacological mechanisms of action, although controversial, have been influential within the critical psychiatry community. We have discussed some implications of the drug-centered model in an earlier interview with Dr Steingard. Dr Moncrieff s ongoing randomized controlled trial investigating the long-term impact of gradual antipsychotic dose reduction and discontinuation in schizophrenia on outcomes such as psychotic relapse and social functioning (versus maintenance treatment) can potentially alter how the field approaches management of chronic psychotic disorders.

This interview, however, largely focuses on conceptual concerns, exploring her views on the nature of psychiatric suffering. My first conscious exposure to Dr Moncrieff was at the 2017 annual meeting of the Association for the Advancement of Philosophy and Psychiatry, where Dr. Moncrieff gave the keynote lecture titled Many Ways of Being Human, in which she challenged the medical view of mental disorders and argued that medical and psychiatric conditions have a different relationship to agency, responsibility, and selfhood.

Dr Moncrieff s ideas represent in many ways the enduring legacy of Thomas Szasz and given my own disagreements with how Szasz conceptualizes the notion of disease, this interview also represents an attempt on my part to understand how deep our philosophical disagreements go.

Aftab: Can you briefly tell us about the Critical Psychiatry Network? How was it created, what is its mission, and how do you think Critical Psychiatry Network has impacted British psychiatry over the years?

Moncrieff: When I was a trainee in psychiatry, I felt the way psychiatry was portrayed in the mainstreamin textbooks and medical journalsdid not match my ideas about the nature of mental health problems or my experience of people who were deemed to have such problems. I was aware that other trainees felt like this too, so I started a club while I was at the Institute of Psychiatry in 1997. Initially we had discussions about interesting books and articles, and then we organized meetings, in conjunction with the Maudsley hospital service users group, with outside speakers, including the likes of Thomas Szasz, Nikolas Rose and Andrew Scull.

Around this time, we were contacted by some psychiatrists from another part of the UK, who were concerned about the upcoming review of the Mental Health Act. We got together to submit evidence to this review and that was the start of the Critical Psychiatry Network. Since that time, it has functioned as a forum for mutual support, and as a mechanism for contributing a critical view of psychiatric practice to various parliamentary and governmental reviews, the media and other organizations. Have we had any impact? I think the fact that members of the psychiatric profession are challenging mainstream views, particularly the dominance of the biological paradigm in psychiatry, is important, and helps to support broader movements that are trying to imagine and establish alternative approaches.

Aftab: Models of drug action have been an important focus of your work, in particular, the distinction between disease centered model and drug centered model. In the disease centered model, drugs help correct an abnormal brain state and the therapeutic effects of drugs are derived from their effects on an underlying disease process. In the drug centered model, drugs are psychoactive agents that create an abnormal brain state, and therapeutic effects are derived from the impact of drug-induced state on behavioral and emotional problems. Can you elaborate for us how ignoring this has distorted our understanding of the treatment of psychiatric conditions and has biased our assessments of risks and benefits?

Moncrieff: Assuming that drugs work by acting on the underlying biological mechanisms of mental symptoms (the disease-centered model) has obscured the fact that the drugs we use in psychiatry are psychoactive drugsthat is, drugs that change the brain in ways we do not fully understand and by doing so produce more or less subtle alterations to normal mental experiences and behaviorwhat I have called the drug-centered model of drug action. Because we have ignored the fact that psychiatric drugs are psychoactive substances, we have not bothered to properly research or even describe the physical and mental physical alterations they produce and all the short and long-term consequences of these. Therefore, we are not making fully informed assessments of the benefits and harms of drug treatment, and because we assume we are rectifying an underlying abnormality, we tend to over-estimate the benefits of treatment and understate its harms.

So although I think there are some situations in which some drugs can be useful (antipsychotics in acute psychosis, benzodiazepines in acute agitation, for example), this has led, in my view, to a situation in which millions of people world-wide are taking drugs that are doing them little or no good, but are causing them harmboth harm that we know about and harm that we have not properly researched yet.

Aftab: I wonder if the disease centered model conflates instances of disease processes with biological mechanisms. Let s consider a thought experiment. Assume that in patient A, biological mechanism X mediates, in part, the subjective experience of anhedonia. We are not qualifying mechanism X as an abnormality or disease, we are simply saying that it is a mechanism, among other mechanisms, of generating anhedonia. Now patient A takes a medication M, and M has a direct action on X leads to an improvement in anhedonia. Again, we are not saying that medication M is fixing an abnormality in X, just that it has a direct action on mechanism X. In this thought experiment, the medication M is neither correcting a disease process nor is it producing a therapeutic effect indirectly from a drug induced state; it is producing a therapeutic effect by a direct action on a mechanism that is not necessarily abnormal but is nonetheless directly involved in the experience being targeted. How would your framework incorporate such hypotheticals?

Moncrieff: I think I make it clear in my writings that the disease-centered model I have outlined is not restricted to what we think of as diseases, especially as the use of this term in psychiatry is not clear-cut. The disease-centered model consists of the idea that drugs work by targeting underlying biological mechanisms that produce what we call the symptoms of mental disorders. Hence your thought experiment is an example of the disease-centered model as I have formulated it.

My response to your example is this: First of all, we have no idea what biological mechanism mediates anhedonia or almost any other subjective experience. The idea that we can pin down the biological mechanisms of complex human thoughts, feelings and behaviors is part of the problem with our thinking in my view. We cannot do this now, and we have no indication that we will be able to do so in the futurea view put forward in critical neuroscience too, by the way (1-3). Second, if you give a drug that affects mechanisms P, Q, R, S and some others, and through its action produces an altered mental state in anyone who takes it regardless of diagnosis (allowing for individual variation, of course), you will get some impact on emotions, including feelings of anhedonia. This may involve mechanisms related to anhedonia, including your hypothetical mechanism X, but it may not, since any significant alteration of mental state and activity will affect emotions in some way. Now this is a drug-centered action, and this is what I propose is happening when we use psychiatric drugs.

We recognize the fact that psychoactive substances like alcohol and heroin change our mental states and can therefore interact with unwanted mental states and feelings. We talk of using alcohol to drown our sorrows, but we don t consider alcohol to be targeting the biological basis of misery in any specific way. When we recognize that psychiatric drugs have psychoactive properties, then we can start to understand what they are doing in people who suffer from mental health problems, and we can start to make a thorough and informed judgement about the pros and cons of using them.

Aftab: When you say The idea that we can pin down the biological mechanisms of complex human thoughts, feelings and behaviors is part of the problem with our thinking in my view. We cannot do this now, and we have no indication that we will be able to do so in the future, do you say that in an epistemological sense, that is, reflective of the limits of human knowledge and understanding, or do you say that in an ontological sense, that is, you don t think that complex human thoughts, feelings and behaviors are mediated by biological mechanisms? By mediate I mean here that biological mechanisms are part of the causal chain that eventually generates human thoughts and behaviors; I am not implying that human thoughts and behaviors can be reduced to or entirely explained by biological mechanisms.

Moncrieff: It depends what you mean by mediate. I think the Wittgenstinian scholar, Peter Hacker, puts this issue well. For Hacker, the mind is a set of capacities of the human organism (like Aristotle s psuche or psyche). The human brain working as a whole is necessary to generate these capacities, but individual mental processes cannot necessarily be pinned down to specific brain mechanisms. Think of emotional states like anger, elation, anxiety, and fear. They are all associated with increased adrenaline and other arousal mechanisms, but they have their own character, and this character derives from how the individual appraises their worldly situation, not from the nature of the biochemical or physiological reactions going on.

Aftab: You give the example of opioid medications as having disease centered effects as well as drug centered effects. Given that our understanding of causal mechanisms of serious mental illness as well as mechanisms of drug action is less than comprehensive, how do we know that such dual effects are not the case in at least some individuals with serious mental illness? Since that is an empirical matter, I don t think we can rule this possibility out on an a priori basis.

Moncrieff: There are many things we can t rule outthat doesn t mean they are useful ideas. The drug-centered model provides an adequate explanation of drug action in mental disorders. There is no need to postulate a hypothetical disease-centered action alongside it.

Aftab: What is your view of the philosophy of psychiatry literature that has emerged in recent decades, in great part thanks to British academics such as Bill Fulford and Tim Thornton? I m particularly thinking of the body of work that is devoted to questions of whether the boundary between "normal" and "pathological" can be drawn on the basis of objective, scientific facts, and what is the relationship between meaning and disease (Derek Bolton), and how to best understand and explain causal mechanisms in psychiatric conditions (Ken Kendler, Peter Zachar). This body of work seems to have great relevance to your interests; have you engaged with it in your writings?

Moncrieff: I have followed the work of Bill Fulford and to a lesser extent the others you mention in detail over the last few decades and I am about to have a paper published in the Journal Philosophy, Psychiatry, & Psychology that responds to their work.4 However, I think it was Thomas Szasz, whom I met a couple of times in my life, who identified the main problem with psychiatry and few modern philosophers seem prepared to engage with his core arguments (with the exception of Bill Fulford).

For Szasz, there is a key distinction between a condition of the body and a situation that is characterized by self-directed, human behavior (as opposed to involuntary behavior caused by a biological process or event). In this, he follows anti-positivist philosophers, including the later Wittgenstein, who stress the differences between the natural world and the human world and how these entail different forms of knowledge. Szasz argues that psychiatry mostly deals with self-directed behavior and is therefore different from other parts of medicine that deal with bodily conditions.

Much of the psychiatric establishment clearly agrees with Szasz s distinction, because it wants to demonstrate that psychiatry too deals with bodiesor more specifically brainsand that psychiatric disorders are, in fact, brain diseases. I agree with both Szasz and the biological psychiatrists that it is important to know whether behavior is the direct result of a specific biological mechanism or not. However, I do not think research that finds a slightly higher rate of this or that biological feature in the brains of people with a psychiatric diagnosis compared to healthy controls demonstrates that mental disorders originate in the brain, as opposed to in the person s agency or character.

But I also don t think that the behavior that characterizes some mental disorders is quite the same as ordinary, fully volitional behavior, as Szasz suggests, either. The thinking and behavior characteristic of psychosis, for example, is not rational in a clear-cut way. People with psychosis do not respond to environmental cues and evidence in the way that people usually do, and their purposes are not easily and immediately discernible to other people. They may not have as much control over their behavior as people ordinarily do, either.

Although the behavior we associate with mental disorder is not simply the same as everyday behavior, I don t think it is distinct either. It is not a biological reflex, and therefore it can be viewed as part of the self or character, just as other, more clearly voluntary behavior is. This is why I refer to mental disorder as part of the range of ways in which human beings live within, and interact with, their world.4

Aftab: What about psychological experiences that are involuntary, unwanted, and distressing, such as auditory hallucinations and obsessions? At least in some instances, they are perceived by individuals to be intrusive and threatening to their sense of selves and lead to help-seeking behaviors. Do you also think of those experiences as parts of the self or reflective of the individual s values, desires, and intentions?

Moncrieff: This is a good question, and it highlights the complexity of our human nature, which I cannot do justice to here obviously. Certainly, some mental processes are not straightforwardly voluntary. Our moods and emotions, for example, are not brought on at our demand. Yet, although feelings are usually unbidden, we can nevertheless usually exercise some control over how we behave in response to them, and, often, with time and experience, over the feelings themselves. In the normal course of things, we see our moods and emotions as being part of ourselves or our character. As I put it in my recent paper the way we express our emotions is part of what is characteristic about us as individuals.4

I think many symptoms of mental disorders, including extreme or prolonged moods, but also obsessional thoughts and hallucinations, are of the same nature. People who end up in services may find their experiences difficult to resist and control, but that is true to some degree of many mental states and does not mean they are simply the meaningless byproducts of biological events.

Aftab: We know that psychosis can occur in conditions such as Parkinson disease and Alzheimer disease, and there are phenomenological similarities between psychosis in these instances and the psychosis experienced in schizophrenia. I assume you consider the former two to be diseases but the not the latter. If we were to restrict ourselves to examining the psychotic experiences only (without considering the concomitant presence of motor or cognitive symptoms), is there anything in the nature of these psychotic experiences that tells you whether they should be considered a disease or not?

Moncrieff: Physical states can occasionally mimic psychological ones. Thyroid hormone deficiency is famously said to cause depression. Often there are some phenomenological differences, but probably not always. Amphetamine abuse can cause psychosis. Again, there are some phenomenological differences if you were to look at a group level, but you cannot necessarily distinguish amphetamine-induced psychosis from an idiopathic psychotic episode in an individual patient on the basis of symptoms alone. However, this does not mean that the majority of instances of psychosis and depression are of the same nature.

As I have said before, many philosophers have pointed to how human emotions and mental states cannot be understood in a mechanical sense as isolated phenomena or events. They are intrinsically connected to the whole life history and experience of the individual, and the society in which that individual has grown up. Whereas thyroid deficiency may provide an adequate explanation of an episode of depression brought on by hypothyroidism, and thyroid hormone will usually provide an adequate treatment, a normal episode of depression has to be understood and treated in quite a different way, as a human reaction that requires a human-level response.

Aftab: You seem to suggest that if a behavior or experience can be seen as a meaningful response to personal experiences, environment trauma, social alienation, and so on, then it should not be considered the product of a brain disease (blogs here and here). Two questions. One, human minds are great at conjuring explanations of meaning where none may exist. How can we ensure that our attributions of meaning are not simply instances of creative storytelling? Second, there is no philosophical reason why meaning and biological abnormalities should be considered mutually exclusive. Someone who is experiencing paranoia as a result of cocaine use can still find that paranoia as imbued with meaning and distorted reason, but there is no denying that it was the result of a brain aberration. Your thoughts?

Moncrieff: We can never be sure about meaning. It is not a categorical thingthis is one of the many aspects in which the activity of human beings differs from the natural world and the form of our understanding needs to reflect this difference. Psychotherapy is premised on the idea that meaning is opaque and contested. The therapist s interpretation of feelings and events may be quite different from the subject s and this is not an arena where we can ever know the truth as we know it in physical science.

I take issue with your statement that there is no philosophical reason why meaning and biological abnormalities should be considered mutually exclusive, and I argue this point in detail in my recent philosophical paper.4 We are biological beings, and our behavior and activity is reflected in our biology, so of course meaning and biological abnormalities coexist. Yet, when we think of behavior, biological causation trumps meaning and agency. If an actiona twitch or a seizure, for exampleis caused by a biological process, this removes it from the realm of agency. It does not make sense to think of an action as both caused by a biological reflex and initiated by the self in an intentional fashion. They are mutually incompatible situations.

Biological processes are not meaningful, but biology is the context in which human agency takes place, and it sets the limits of possibility. People with intellectual disability, Alzheimer disease or other brain diseases may make meaningful choices, but their agency is circumscribed (as it is for all of us) by the nature of their brains. And so it is for those under the influence of substances. The biological limitations are not meaningful in themselves, but within these limits people may still be able to make choices and act in an intentional and meaningful fashion. However, the extent to which behavior is driven, changed or limited by a brain disease is not meaningful.

As I show in my recent philosophical paper, Szasz was trying to highlight how this distinction plays out in the difference between disease and behavior. Only when behavior is the product of a specific physical process, such as a brain tumor, can it be thought of as the symptom of a disease, and in this case, it is not meaningful. Otherwise it is part and parcel of the individual s character; it reflects the individual s values, desires and intentionsin other words it has meaning.

Aftab: When it comes to schizophrenia, a large body of research literature shows that there is a robust genetic component, that there are well-replicated associations with obstetrical complications, infections, inflammatory processes, cannabis use, and as a group, individuals with schizophrenia show differences in brain volume and cognitive functioning. I agree, there is no specific abnormality of brain structure or function, but there is a range of non-specific neurobiological factors which have been implicated as risk factors on a consistent basis. If schizophrenia was merely a problem in living or merely a different way of being human, why would we observe this risk factor profile in research studies?

Moncrieff: I would put it another way. Despite decades of extremely well-funded research, we have yet to identify any specific biological factor associated with any type of mental disorder, including schizophrenia. There is a genetic component to many things, and it is likely this includes some aspects of character or temperament that are associated with developing schizophrenia. As far as other research goes, despite what you and others say, findings are not well replicated and the research has failed to control for crucial confounding factors like drug treatment, social class, stress and IQ.

There are myriad reasons why people who show unusual behavior that is classified as schizophrenia are likely to have higher rates of obstetric complications, inflammatory markers, dopamine abnormalities, drug use etc. when compared to the sort of stable, employed, middle class people that become the normal controls in biological studies. The most consistent and well-replicated finding in people with schizophrenia is the evidence of smaller brain size and larger brain ventricles, yet after years of talk about schizophrenic brains, it transpires that this is, at least in large part, caused by antipsychotic drug treatment.

Aftab: To what extent are Szaszian or neo-Szasizan views on the nature of psychiatric disorders fundamental to the critical psychiatry movement? Are there folks who identify as critical psychiatrists and who agree with your views on psychopharmacology but disagree with your views on the nature of psychiatric disorders?

Moncrieff: Most people who identify as critical psychiatrists are not fans of Szasz, and I am sure there are many who accept my ideas about psychopharmacology without signing up to my Szasian critique of psychiatry. Individual critical psychiatrists have been influenced by many other thinkers and movements such as Foucault, Laing, Meyer, the service user movement, and the therapeutic community movement. I think there are commonalities among all these positions, but also something that is distinctive, and the critical psychiatry movement benefits from a dialogue between different perspectives.

Aftab: What do you see as the appropriate role and responsibility of psychiatrists within the medical profession and in society at large? How do you implement this vision in your own psychiatric practice, working in a system that largely doesn t share your ideas?

Moncrieff: As I have explained, I do not think the majority of the situations that psychiatrists help to manage are diseases or illnesses, or things that arise from the physical body. I think they are better understood as forms of behavior that are unusual, sometimes irrational and unpredictable, and socially problematic for one reason or another. I am not convinced therefore that it is logical for them to be regarded as part of the terrain of medicine.

However, that does not mean I don t think there is a job to be done. Many people find negotiating the demands of modern society difficult and need support of one sort or another. Some people behave in ways that disturb the peace and sometimes the safety of others, yet it would not be appropriate or possible to prosecute or punish them using the criminal law. I see psychiatry as a sort of social work service that is not essentially medical but has a medical component. The medical component concerns identifying the rare cases when a genuine medical (bodily) condition mimics a psychological state, and the use of drugs. As I have explained, I believe that some drugs can be useful in some situations, and clinical pharmacology expertise is essential to ensure they are used safely, only when necessary, and to resist pressure from Pharma and other quarters to use them more widely.

So in this sense I believe psychiatry is a fundamentally political activity. It is one of the informal social control apparatus that society has delegated to manage behavior that is socially problematic. Calling it a medical specialty disguises this fact and deprives people of the level of oversight and scrutiny that would be considered necessary if this was acknowledged. I think recognizing this fundamental aspect of psychiatry enables me to be transparent about what I do, which helps me to balance the interests of different parties as fairly as possible.

Aftab: Thank you!

The article in Philosophy, Psychiatry, & Psychology referenced by Dr Moncrieff was in press at the time this interview was conducted but has since been published online. Readers may be interested in additional critical reflections on the paper in my blog post here. I d also like to add that there is a large body of literature critically engaging with the ideas of Thomas Szasz, such as the 2019 book Thomas Szasz: An Appraisal of His Legacy (International Perspectives in Philosophy and Psychiatry), which I would encourage readers to explore.

The opinions expressed in the interviews are those of the participants and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Psychiatric Times.

Previously in Conversations in Critical Psychiatry

Relentless Warrior for Mental Health: Allen Frances, MD

The Structure of Psychiatric Revolutions: Anne Harrington, DPhil

Skepticism of the Gentle Variety: Derek Bolton, PhD

Explanatory Methods in Psychiatry: The Importance of Perspectives: Paul R. McHugh, MD

Chaos Theory with a Human Face: Niall McLaren, MBBS, FRANZCP

The Rise and Fall of Pragmatism in Psychiatry: S. Nassir Ghaemi, MD, MPH

Integrating Academic Inquiry and Reformist Activism in Psychiatry: Sandra Steingard, MD, and G. Scott Waterman, MD

Social Constructionism Meets Aging and Dementia: Peter Whitehouse, MD, PhD

50 Shades of Misdiagnosis: Susannah Cahalan

Institutional Corruption and Social Justice in Psychiatry: Lisa Cosgrove, PhD

The Impoverishment of Psychiatric Knowledge: Giovanni Fava, MD

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Psychiatry and the Human Condition: Joanna Moncrieff, MD - Psychiatric Times

Remote Work in the Covid-19 Era: Cyber Risks Rise for Small Businesses as Security Budgets Dwindle – Security Boulevard

Business owners are concerned that remote working will lead to more cyberattacks. Ironically, though, nearly 40% of small business owners feel that economic uncertainty will prevent them from making necessary cybersecurity investments to prevent the very cyber incidents they fear.

The overnight move to a virtual workplace has increased cybersecurity concerns for small business owners, but many have not yet implemented remote working policies to address cybersecurity threats, according to a new survey commissioned by the Cyber Readiness Institute (CRI).

Stay-at-home orders for more than 40 states have forced millions of businesses across the U.S. to establish remote workforces that rely on Internet-enabled applications and products to conduct business. However, history has shown that remote work can lead to serious breaches of security.

The survey of 412 small business owners contacted from March 25-27 found that half of are concerned remote working will lead to a surge in cyber incidents. At the same time, those business owners say their hands are tied, with four in 10 admitting that economic uncertainty prevents them from digging into their pockets to make the necessary investments required to prevent these looming incidents.

For companies with fewer than 20 employees, its even worse.These organizations are distinctly unprepared for remote working, researchers said, with only 22% providing additional cybersecurity training prior to enabling remote working and just 33% providing any cybersecurity training at all.

These findings echo the results of a similar survey conducted by Bitdefender last year which found that organizations that emphasize training are better at detecting attacks quickly, and more efficient at isolating them.

Now, more than ever cybersecurity affects the business of nearly every company, not just in the U.S. but internationally, said Kiersten Todt, managing director of CRI. These are extremely challenging times for companies, especially small businesses, as revenue and resources are as unpredictable as they have ever been. However, cybersecurity investments arent always tied to dollars and cents. Several free tools, that focus on human behavior, offer important guidance on helping small businesses become more cyber ready. The best way to prevent the spread of COVID-19 is by doing the basics like washing your hands. Similarly, the cyber hygiene basics will go a long way in keeping small businesses resilient in this time of increased threats.

The CRI has outlined basic steps that every organization can take to secure their remote workforce,such as using secure passwords, ensuring that all operating systems are up to date, and understanding the tricks used by bad actors to dupe remote workers into divulging their access credentials.

Bitdefender Small Office Security offers next-gen protection for small businesses, including for Windows, Android, macOS or iOS devices. Customers get support from our engineers who are on call 24/7 and easy to reach by email, phone or chat whenever you or your team needs help. Furthermore, lost or stolen devices can be reported and locked in the middle of the night, while any performance issues can be ironed out before your day starts.

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Remote Work in the Covid-19 Era: Cyber Risks Rise for Small Businesses as Security Budgets Dwindle - Security Boulevard

The danger of misinformation: How to find the facts about COVID-19 – Dailyuw

Only some visitors to the Quad followed social distancing guidelines on April 1, 2020.

COVID-19 has taken over the world and right now there seems to be no other important topic for friends and family to talk about as they communicate via Zoom.

But this can be hard with misinformation about the virus floating around and, with its dominance of mainstream media, theres bound to be conflicting information.

The Center for the Informed Public (CIP) held a live stream to address the topic of misinformation during the COVID-19 era.

Hanson Hosein, co-director of the University of Washington Communication Leadership program, moderated the event.

Director of Blended and Networked Learning at WSU Vancouver, Mike Caulfield discussed the importance of having accurate information on COVID-19 during what he called an infodemic.

The difference between having the right information and the wrong information can mean the difference between life and death, on an immense scale, Caulfield said.

Kate Starbird, associate professor of human centered design & engineering, said there is something about a crisis that makes people more susceptible to information, whether true or false. She went on to say that disaster sociologists and people who study human behavior have known for a long time that people are uncertain about what to do during disasters.

People feel anxiety about what the best course of action is. To try and resolve this uncertainty people will come together, gather info, share info and come up with explanations for why an event is happening. In this process of trying to make sense of whats going on, people generate a variety of explanations, some that may be true and some that may be false.

Were naturally vulnerable to spreading misinformation during these times, Starbird said. A lot of misinformation Im seeing, even the political misinformation isnt necessarily intentional, its people interpreting the information thats at hand in ways that fit their political objectives.

Each individual needs to be responsible and take measures not to spread the virus, Caulfield said, and be wary of where ones information comes from and who theyre passing it along to.

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You have to stop and you have to ask yourself do I really know what Im looking at? Caulfield said. The web has a way of teleporting information to us in this sort of decontextual way where we believe we know what were looking at, we believe we know what the source is, we believe were being critical, but when we stop and take a second to say Are they in a position to know something about this? We often find we dont have that information.

Caulfield recommended using a site with techniques to help people sift through information that may be inaccurate. He and a group of people have worked on the site to help teach simple tricks.

Porismita Borah, an associate professor in the College of Communication at WSU, said it was important to read multiple sources of information and cross-check them from one another.

With all the misinformation being spread right now, Borah said its important to know what is accurate and what is not. So when someone sees another person spreading false information, it should be pointed out so it doesnt continue to spread.

Its important to have accurate sources so the person pointing out the false information can present their friend with facts. The CIP gave a list of sources that are useful during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Associate professor at the Information School and the director of CIP Jevin West pleaded for people to put in the work to find accurate information.

We dont need any more damage, West said. The biological virus is going to do enough damage, lets do what we can to reduce the damage that can come from information viruses.

While its important to have accurate information, Starbird wanted to advise against people being too harsh on one another for giving false information.

Were all vulnerable to this, Starbird said. So just let yourself off the hook a little bit.

Reach reporter Stevie Riepe at news@dailyuw.com. Twitter: @StevieRiepe

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The danger of misinformation: How to find the facts about COVID-19 - Dailyuw

Coronavirus models: When will the pandemic end? Why predicting the outbreak is so hard. – Vox.com

One of the greatest challenges of the coronavirus pandemic is that all levels of policy makers need to make decisions with imperfect information. Scientists still dont know everything about how this virus is transmitted, and due to the lack of widespread testing, they also dont know, exactly, how prevalent it is. They dont know if the virus will show a strong seasonal effect, and decrease during the summer. They dont know how this will all end.

One way they are trying to answer these questions is through modeling. Specifically, infectious disease models are tools based on mathematical formulations that try to game out whats possible in the future. These models are varied, often confusing to interpret, and are not crystal balls, especially because the ideal data isnt yet available. But they are a large part of what government leaders use to make decisions, influencing how resources are allocated to health care facilities and how social distancing orders are issued to the public.

In this piece, Im going to try to explain the utility of coronavirus models and how to think about them when you see them reported in the news. Ill also explain a big idea to make these models work better in the future.

But before that, I think its key to stress what we dont need them for. We dont need them to know that were in a very, very dangerous situation.

Whats very important is not the details of the model, its that this is a virus that can crush health care, says Bill Hanage, an epidemiologist who studies infectious diseases at Harvard. Thats not a model result, thats an observation. We know it because of Wuhan, we know it because of Italy, because of Spain, we know it because, now, of New York.

In New York state, thousands have died, and hospitals are at, or exceeding, capacity and struggling with equipment shortages. Covid-19 is a freight train, as Hanage calls it, and it has rammed into not just New York but several other parts of the United States.

But the models also show that the country is nearing the peak in daily deaths. And people should continue to listen to their mayors and governors and stay at home. Modeling plays a very important role for public decision-making, and it can help the public know that they, are, in fact, doing the right thing by staying home.

Leaders have tough choices to make in the weeks and months ahead, as the outbreak plays out differently in states. Models can help predict rates of new infections, and estimate when the strain on the hospital system could peak. In early April, Washington, DC, Mayor Muriel Bowser said that modeling projects a surge in DC area hospitals during the summer. Like all models, we hope this one will be proved wrong, she told MSNBC. But shes preparing for it anyway. We are preparing for many people to come through our hospitals.

Forecasting disease outbreaks is an immense challenge. Models incorporate many different types of data into their projections. There are a head-spinning number of potential inputs. (And some models dont use these inputs at all, but just rely on projecting data from earlier in the outbreak.)

A model can input the biology of the virus: How does it spread, how quickly does it infect, how quickly does it lead to symptoms, how quickly does it replicate to a level where it can jump from person to person? (Note: A lot of these variables are still not completely known.)

It can account for human biology: How does the immune system mount a response to this virus, how many people will become immune after exposure, and for how long? Also, how many people can get infected with the virus, and have the ability to spread it, but never feel sick themselves? (A lot of this isnt perfectly understood either.)

It also should, ideally, reflect how human society works: How many people do we come into contact with each day, and how does this vary in different communities, rural and urban? Models need to account for that; in a big country like the US, outbreaks are going to be regional, with varying intensities and responses.

It needs to be realistic about the capacities of health care systems: How many beds are available for Covid-19 patients, how quickly will they fill up, how many doctors and nurses are there to serve them, how many ventilators are there, and how many patients will need them, and when?

Then, theres chaos: How do people react to the news that tens of thousands are dying from a virus that probably started with a bat, and how might that influence the model?

The question of how will an outbreak progress is clearly immense. In a common modeling approach called SIR (SIR stands for susceptible, infected, recovered), scientists are trying to figure how many people are susceptible to a disease, how many of them will become infected, at what rate and where. But then, as more people recover from the disease, and become immune, that decreases the number of those who are susceptible.

To sum up: This stuff is complicated! That we can get any insight into the future, considering the variables, is a miracle. Yet scientists are trying, and their efforts are valuable.

Hanage explains there are basically two main types of models being used to try to plot out the course of this pandemic: statistical models and mechanistic models.

Lets start by explaining statistical models.

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) has the most commonly cited models and it includes separate projections for every state. Dr. Deborah Birx, the White House coronavirus response coordinator, has referenced it. Hanage explains this model is whats known as a statistical model.

The IHME, based at the University of Washington, looks at data of how Covid-19 outbreaks have progressed around the world. It takes that data and then tries to project what the epidemic curve will look like as new outbreaks form in new areas based on what social distancing actions are being taken. The goal is to predict the time of peak hospital strain in an area, and the number of deaths.

To use Hanages metaphor: Its looking at how fast and hard the freight train has hit on other stops of its journey, and predicting it will hit that fast and hard when it gets to new stops.

This model makes some assumptions, namely, that the conditions for the previous freight train collisions will be similar in the future.

Earlier in the outbreak, the model was mainly fed from data in China, which imposed extreme social distancing measures. And so it assumes some high level of social distancing will continue into the future. That makes this a best-case scenario model, Carl Bergstrom, a computational biologist at the University of Washington, assessed on Twitter. Its now also drawing from current social distancing actions in the US.

The IHME model assumes this behavior will continue. And its creators are transparent about this limitation. The projection, the IHME explains on its FAQ page, only covers the next four months and does not predict how many deaths there may be if there is a resurgence at a later point or if social distancing is not fully implemented and maintained. The hardest thing to model in all of this is not the virus, but human behavior.

The IHME model projections have changed over the course of the outbreak, as its creators have input new data from new outbreaks, new social distancing measures, and new resources (like ventilators) that have become available. (The model is regularly updated with new data).

This has actually led the models to decrease their death toll projection for the US a few times, most recently from 81,766 to 60,415, or about 25 percent. This doesnt mean the model has been wrong or shortsighted. It means collective actions have been working.

Also keep in mind: The IHME death toll projections come with a huge range of error. In the model, deaths per day are expected to peak soon in the US. As of April 10, its two days away, and the error the shaded area, spans roughly 4,000 deaths per day.

I think its key not to get fixated on the exact numbers, Dominique Heinke, an epidemiologist in Massachusetts, says. You can look at a range of models and say, we can expect it to be at least this bad. Again, we know this: The freight train is coming, and in many places, is already here.

Whats the good use of a forecast model if it changes all the time? Well, it reflects the complexity of the problem these models are trying to solve. For example, weather forecasters use atmospheric models to predict the weather, and as they gather more data on temperature, humidity, and barometric pressure, their forecasts become more accurate and, thus, often change.

Unlike the weather, which were all accustomed to understanding and incorporating forecast into whatever decision you make, unlike the weather [here] we actually influence the outcome, says Caitlin Rivers, a professor at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. So people see the numbers, and they are motivated then to be more aware, stay home, and using good hygiene and doing all the things that really change that outcome.

The models change, because our actions change. The models could change for the worse if local governments declare premature victories and decrease social distancing measures too early.

By keeping an eye on the model, we can tell how the virus is circulating in our own communities: in some places, cases and deaths are still going up, in some places they are starting to come down, says Ali Mokdad, a professor at IHME and chief strategy officer for population health at the University of Washington. We can also use the model to ask what businesses we should open first as we recover: The key issue as we go into recovery mode is to do it in stages so we dont have a second wave of infections that will hurt us even more in terms of mortality and the economy.

Unless testing can be scaled up, some social distancing measures may have to be kept in place until there is a vaccine available, which can take a year or more. What happens in the scenario when social distancing measures are relaxed, but then put in place again if cases spike again? Im not sure we can model that, Hanage says.

The other type of model decision makers are using is a mechanistic model. These models are designed to help policymakers understand the impacts specific policies and actions may have on a diseases course. These models also make a lot of assumptions, and often present very wide-ranging scenarios.

A good example of a mechanistic model comes from the Imperial College of London.

In the middle of March, it provided a scary wake-up call to the UK government to take more action. Their model looked at what would happen in Great Britain and in the US if the countries did nothing. It took what it knew about the transmissibility of the virus and put it into a model designed for the flu a caveat right off the bat, as Covid-19 is not the flu.

(Transmissibility here is often called the R0, or R-naught; its the average number of new cases expected to be spawned by each case of an illness. Note: The value of the R0 is still just an estimation).

In the scenario where nothing is done, the models authors found, there could be 510,000 deaths in Great Britain, and 2.2 million in the US. And that was not accounting for the potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed on mortality, the authors report.

That made headlines. But their model didnt just report the worst-case scenario. It tried to gauge the impact of various social distancing policies, and tried to make estimates for many different R0 figures. The estimates ranged, for Great Britain, from just 5,600 deaths assuming a low R0 of 2, and the most aggressive social distancing, and 550,000 deaths assuming an R0 of 2.6 and no social distancing measures.

If youre a leader of a country, looking at that spread, you know what you need to do: implement social distancing measures. Thats what the UK did. Later, when one of the models authors told the UK government in testimony that the deaths in Great Britain would probably number around 20,000, he was not revising the model, as some critics complained. Instead, he was reflecting that range of possibilities presented in the model.

Again, the point of these models is not to precisely predict the future, its to influence the future, and choose a good course of action.

Thats helpful. But again, as with the statistical models, these mechanistic models cant game out every possible future.

Recently, Columbia University put out a model (with a handy interactive map) that tries to predict which US counties will have their health care systems overwhelmed, under different social distancing scenarios, and when.

The model also attempts to help hospitals by showing how different coping strategies in hospitals (i.e. converting operating room beds to Covid-19 care beds, for one example, and modifying ventilators for use in multiple patients for another) could mitigate the problem, and help save lives.

The prediction is grim for the crush on hospital systems, which is expected to soon move from the northeast United States, to Southern states, as the outbreak starts to impact more and more rural areas. (Keep in mind: As outbreaks in some cities taper off, outbreaks in other areas may just be getting started.)

Its a complicated model. Its trying to predict hospital bed demand, ICU bed demand, and ventilator demand, Jeff Shaman, an infectious disease modeler at Columbia, explains. Its a mathematical description of transmission at county scale, where the counties are linked by movement between them based on ... travel patterns, and understanding that those have waned over time because of this ongoing Covid crisis.

It tries to account for a lot, but it cant account for everything. Something it cant account for: the possibility that health care workers get sick and have to leave work, leaving these hospital systems more strained. Were in the process right now on establishing a national database on staffing levels, Charles Branas, chair of epidemiology at Columbia, says. Its been challenging to build this airplane while it is flying, quite frankly.

That doesnt mean the model is useless. It can still help guide decision-making. You can look at the map and see which counties are still overwhelmed in their best-case scenarios. Those could potentially be first-choice counties for supplementary resources, Branas says.

I asked the Columbia researchers how theyd like the public to think of their model.

These are not forecasts, they are projections, were dealing with a very, very uncertain environment, Shaman stressed. The degree to which people are social distancing ... is changing day-to-day. It is difficult to pin down whats going on. Were making multiple projections because we dont know what people will do. We do it because we would like some window into the future. So we can assess: Are we on a really bad trajectory no matter what we do? Or are we on a good trajectory no matter what we do? Or is it incumbent upon us to make certain decisions so we can more certainly move to a better outcome?

(Another mechanistic model to check out: The University of Pennsylvania has a tool for regional leaders to input their own observations, and see how an outbreak might impact their areas hospitals.)

Theres a lot thats still unknown about the coronavirus, and the pandemic.

There will be people writing papers 100 years from now about what actually happened, there will be people making discoveries about the relative rates of increase in San Francisco vs. New York, Hanage says.

Rivers, the Johns Hopkins epidemiologist, hopes, in the future, well get better at this. Like the US has the National Weather Service a government agency staffed to create weather models and test their predictive power she hopes to see the creation of a National Infectious Disease Forecasting Center.

The reason that we have accurate weather forecast today, is because there was a federal agency responsible for weather forecast, she says.

We need to learn from the modeling approaches being used now, to make better models for the future. The weather service does this for hurricanes: You can clearly see in the weather service data how hurricane forecast tracks (i.e. forecast models) have greatly improved over time. Rivers doesnt see that as an accident. The weather models have improved because theres a centralized service to study and create them.

She says there needs to be some central agency collecting these models in an archive, so that researchers later on can figure out which ones worked the best, and why. It could then incorporate that understanding to better forecast future outbreaks.

Right now, there are a lot of models. There are a lot of projections. Were not sure which ones will be most accurate, or useful. Dont end up being obsessed with a specific number, Hanage gives a final piece of advice. Just end up recognizing the number is large. Thats the best way to think about it.

Hanage offers another potentially helpful metaphor: A very, very good physicist will be able to model what will happen if you walk out into the interstate and say exactly where your body parts might land, but the fact that another model puts the body parts in another place, doesnt alter the central conclusion that youre going to get run down by a car, he says.

For now, the biggest message from all of them is that social distancing measures are indeed saving lives. The models predicted that weeks ago and that prediction is coming true. We can all feel good about our sacrifices because of that.

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Coronavirus models: When will the pandemic end? Why predicting the outbreak is so hard. - Vox.com