Category Archives: Human Behavior

Experts Warn COVID-19 May Not Disappear During Warm-Weather Months – Complex

About a month before coronaviruswas declared a pandemic, President Donald Trumppublicly theorized the deadly disease would "miraculously" go away once the weather heats up.

"And by the way, the virus, they're working hard, looks like by April, you know in theory when it gets a little warmer it miraculously goes away," Trump said during New Hampshire rally in February. "I hope that's true. But we're doing great in our country ... I think it's going to all work out fine. Rough stuff, I tell you, rough, rough stuff."

Experts, however, have pushed back on this theory. Though evidence suggests COVID-19 survives much longer in cooler, drier climates, researchers sayit's unlikelyhumidity and warm temperatures will eradicate the disease. Findings published by MITfound that90 percentof coronavirus transmissions recorded through March 22 occurred in regions with temperaturesbetween 37.4 and 62.6 degrees Fahrenheit. While countries in the Southern Hemisphere, where average temperatures surpassed 64.4 degrees, accounted for fewer than 10 percent of global cases. It's important to take the number of confirmedcases with a grain of salt, as a country's reportedlow infection rate could be attributed to its poor public health infrastructure and lack of testing.

Analysts in Hong Kong have also found that an increase in temperature shortened the timeframe Sars-Cov-2 could be detected. A study published by Lancet Microbeon April 2 states that the virus was "highly stable" when left atat 39 degrees Fahrenheit after two weeks, but when left at 158 degrees, the pathogen was inactive after five minutes.

"Our most striking observation to date is the powerful effect that solar light appears to have on killing the virus both on surfaces and in the air,"William Bryan, head of science and technology at the Department of Homeland Security, said in a statement toBuzzFeed News. "Weve seen a similar effect with both temperature and humidity as well, where increasing temperature, humidity, or both is generally less favorable to the virus."

Ecological modelers at the University of Connecticut also released a study, which has yet to be peer-reviewed, that foundultraviolet light was effective in killing the virus; however, experts cautioned that too much exposure to UV-rays can cause skin cells to become cancerous.

So if research has found coronavirus is harmed byheat, humidity, and sunlight, it would seem as though the pandemic would end once we roll into summer, right? Researchers aren't convinced. Though environment appears to play a role in how long the virus can survive, many experts say human behavior is likely much more important when it comes to combatting coronavirus. Why? Because there's still a lot of questions surrounding disease and how it's transmitted.

Per BuzzFeed:

If it takes a lot of virus to get someone infected, [David Relman, a professor of microbiology and immunology at Stanford University] explained, then perhaps the combined impacts of sunlight, humidity, and temperature on the viruss survivability can greatly cut down transmission. But if it only takes a little bit of virus, especially small particles of the virus that can stay aloft in the air for hours, youll still see transmission inside the offices, restaurants, and movie theaters people will be spending time in, regardless of the weather outside.

It's also important to consider the way humans' behavior changes with each season. Though many viruses tend to thrive in winter months, most individuals tend to stay in-doors and at home to avoid the cold weather. Thisisolation could slow the spread of infection, but the indoor circulation of germs and bacteria could also result in a weaken immune system. On the other hand, people tend to spend more time outdoors and in public spaces during the warm-weather months. The increase in social interaction could lead to a spike in transmission; but will the summer climate lower the risks of infections? At this point, we'll have to wait and see.

"Weather and climate can only explain part of the transmission, the other factors are nonenvironmental social distancing, washing hands, covering your cough, staying home when you are sick and these factors are probably the most important in a pandemic," Jesse Bell, a climate health expert at the University of Nebraska, told BuzzFeed. "Understanding climate and weather will only tell you when the environmental conditions are optimal for the spread of the virus."

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Experts Warn COVID-19 May Not Disappear During Warm-Weather Months - Complex

‘Face to Face Time’ Review: Izzy Shill’s SXSW short film is a hilarious case study of insecurity and deceit – MEAWW

Spoilers for Face to Face Time

2020 has witnessed a massive shift in human behavior. Thanks to the coronavirus pandemic, being locked inside homes has become a reality for millions and millions of people across the globe. A state of lockdown, however necessary it is, does not change the fact that we still need contact with other human beings. Subsequently, video chats have become our new best friend. In that respect, Izzy Shills SXSW short film Face to Face Time comes as a rude shock.

The six-minute-something film that stars Shill as Claire and Sean Patrick McGowan as Danny, a man shes been out on two dates with and has a big crush on, is disturbingly funny while being painfully human. It begins with Claire preparing herself. She tidies her dress, makes sure her breasts look good, cleans her bed and then rolls over it a bit to make it just the right amount of messy. She obsesses over every detail in the frame. What frame? The frame of her phone camera as she hits Danny up on FaceTime.

Claires prep, as one could foresee, is met with lackluster enthusiasm from the man of her recent dreams. But it only gets worse. Aside from commenting that Claire looks like a cam girl because of the way she had placed her phone, Danny spends more time texting than actually paying attention to her. And yet, things get worse.

When Claire tries to initiate some extremely awkward FaceTime sex, Danny pays a bit more attention. But he seems entirely too interested in getting his own rocks off rather than having an intimate time with Claire. He makes inane comments like nice bra, whats the color of your underwear, while violently masturbating to what he sees on the screen. Even as Claire tries to make the experience hotter, Danny already looks like hes about to finish. And then things get even worse.

The laptop or iPad or whatever Danny was talking to Claire on, tilts downward and we catch a glimpse of whats happening in the southern hemisphere. Dannys supposed crescendo of passion was an act. He was only pretending to masturbate. Obviously, Claire is hurt. She feels angry and disgusted and sad and decides to leave. In a bid to save himself, Danny tries to flatter, says he likes her, and then starts to explain why he was acting turned on.

As Claires interest piques, the chat hangs and the screen freezes.

Shills film is positively a nightmare for all couples and would-be couples who find themselves separated by the COVID-19 lockdown. It begs them to question if their passionate escapades on video chats are as real as they seem. If Gone Girl managed to make partners mistrust each other, wondering if the other was always planning to ruin their lives, Face to Face Time plants a hilarious seed of mistrust among those who partake in sexting, not just now, but really at any time.

Both Shill and McGowan are fantastic in their performances as they emulate the tropes of the needy and the casually disinterested. The story despite its seemingly trivial subject matter makes a delightful case study of human behavior in the space of technology-based communication. Shills writing and performance also bring out themes of insecurity, low self-esteem, and measuring ones self-worth in external loci.

In just about six minutes, this film entertains, tickles, and makes you self-conscious, forcing you to reevaluate your past experiences. And by any standard, thats a spectacular feat.

'Face to Face Time' is part of Amazon Prime Videos SXSW 2020 Film Festival Collection which is available to be streamed from April 27May 6.

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'Face to Face Time' Review: Izzy Shill's SXSW short film is a hilarious case study of insecurity and deceit - MEAWW

Eye Tracking Market (COVID-19 Impact) Outlooks 2020: Industry Analysis, Demand, Cost Structures, Growth rate and Forecasts to 2024 – Bandera County…

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Eye Tracking Market (COVID-19 Impact) Outlooks 2020: Industry Analysis, Demand, Cost Structures, Growth rate and Forecasts to 2024 - Bandera County...

Human Behavior – mycfibook.com

Psychology is the scientific study of the mind and human behavior. Human behavior is studied in an attempt to explain how and why humans function the way they do.

Human behavior is defined as:

Personality is the combination of traits that form a persons distinctive character. An individuals personality can indicate the behaviors that will likely show over time.

Many different personality assessments can be used to classify an individuals personality type. Each assessment categorizes patterns of human behavior in different ways. To benefit an instructor, the assessment should provide information about the students preferred learning style.

The mother-daughter team of Katharine Briggs and Isabel Briggs Myers pioneered the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator (MBTI) test in 1962. The MBTI categorizes human behavior into 16 personality types, primarily based on the way individuals prefer to use their perception and judgment.

The MBTI can be taken online, and optionally, a certified interpretation of the results can be obtained.

After determining the personality type with the MBTI, the preferred learning styles can be evaluated.

Human needs are the things that humans require for normal growth and development. These needs may be simple, such as the need for food and water. They can also be complex, such as the need for respect and acceptance.

The reward for meeting basic human needs is a feeling of satisfaction, also called satiation. For example, humans are motivated to eat so that they no longer feel hungry. When basic human needs are met, students can devote more attention to their studies.

More complex motivations, such as the desire for personal achievement, are rewarded by a rush of dopamine in the brain. Fulfillment of these needs can be a powerful motivation in complex learning situations.

Abraham Maslow developed a pyramid-style model which is useful for explaining human motivations. He organized human needs into a series of levels. Once the requirements of one level are satisfied, humans are motivated to reach the next level.

Note: After decades of refining his theory, Maslow proposed that the order in the hierarchy is not rigid.

Physiological (1): The need for air, food, water, and maintenance of the human body. Unless these needs are met, a person cannot concentrate fully on learning, self-expression, or other tasks.

Safety and Security (2): Once the physiological needs are met, the need for security becomes active. If a student does not feel safe, he or she cannot concentrate on learning.

Love and Belonging (3): When individuals are physically comfortable and do not feel threatened, they seek to satisfy their social needs of belonging. This involves both giving and receiving love, affection, and the sense of belonging.

Self-Esteem (4): When the first three classes of needs are satisfied, the need for esteem can become dominant. Humans need a stable, high level of self-respect and respect from others.

Humans get esteem in two ways: internally or externally. Internally, a person judges himself or herself worthy by personally defined standards. High self-esteem results in achievement, competence, and knowledge. Most people seek external esteem through social approval and admiration from other people.

Self-Actualization (5): Maslow described self-actualization as the desire to become more and more what one is, to become everything that one is capable of becoming. Being self-actualized is not commonplace since most people are working to meet more pressing needs.

Self-actualized people are characterized by:

A musician must make music, an artist must paint, a poet must write, if he is to be ultimately at peace with himself. What a man can be, he must be. Abraham Maslow

Cognitive needs refer to the desire that humans have to understand what is going on around them. The brain even reinforces this need by giving a rush of dopamine whenever something is learned, which accounts for that satisfying eureka moment.

Aesthetic needs connect directly with human emotions, which are not universal in nature. When someone likes another person or an object, the reasons are not examined. He or she simply likes it. If an instructor does not like a student, this subtle feeling may affect the instructors ability to teach that student.

Cognitive and aesthetic needs were placed immediately before self-actualization (i.e., between 4 and 5 in the pyramid).

Transcendence needs are motivations that go beyond the personal self (e.g., service to others, the pursuit of science, or faith). Maslow placed transcendence needs at the top of the pyramid but noted that they could be reached from any level.

Human nature refers to the general psychological characteristics, feelings, and behavioral traits shared by all humans. Motivation is the reason one acts or behaves in a certain way and lies at the heart of goals. Because it is human nature to be motivated, the responsibility for discovering how to realize the potential of the student lies with the instructor.

Building on Maslows hierarchy of needs, social psychologist Douglas McGregor set out two opposing assumptions about human nature and motivation in 1960: Theory X and Theory Y.

Theory X assumptions:

McGregor believed these assumptions were false, that the role of managers (instructors) is to develop the potential in employees (students) and help them to release that potential toward common goals. This view of humans he termed Theory Y.

Theory Y assumptions:

Defense mechanisms are subconscious defenses against the realities of unpleasant situations. They soften feelings of failure, alleviate feelings of guilt, help an individual cope with reality, and protect ones self-image.

Defense mechanisms:

A perceptive instructor can identify defense mechanisms and help a student by discussing the problem. The main objective should be to restore motivation and self-confidence.

Biological defense mechanisms are a bodily response that protects or preserves organisms. An example is the fight or flight response that results from experiencing a danger or a threat.

Psychological defense mechanisms are unconscious mental process to protect oneself from anxiety or unpleasant emotions. People use these defenses to prevent unacceptable ideas or impulses from entering the conscience.

Denial is a refusal to accept external reality because it is too threatening. It is the refusal to acknowledge what has happened, is happening, or will happen. It is a form of repression through which stressful thoughts are banned from memory.

Repression is the defense mechanism whereby a person places uncomfortable thoughts into inaccessible areas of the unconscious mind. Things a person is unable to cope with now are pushed away, to be dealt with at another time, or hopefully never because they faded away on their own accord.

Displacement results in an unconscious shift of emotion or desire from an object to a more acceptable, less threatening substitute. Displacement avoids unpleasant feelings and puts them somewhere other than where they belong.

Rationalization is a subconscious technique for justifying actions that otherwise would be unacceptable. For example, a student may justify a poor exam grade by claiming there was not enough time to learn the information.

Compensation is a process of psychologically counterbalancing perceived weaknesses by emphasizing strength in other areas. Through compensation, students often attempt to disguise the presence of a weak or undesirable quality by emphasizing a more positive one.

Projection occurs when an individual blames his or her personal shortcomings, mistakes, and transgressions on someone else.

Reaction formation results when a person fakes a belief opposite to the actual belief because the actual belief causes anxiety. For example, a student who wants to fit in, but is not accepted by other class members may develop a who-cares-how-other-people-feel attitude to cover up feelings of loneliness and hunger for acceptance.

Fantasy occurs when a student engages in daydreams about how things should be rather than doing anything about how things are.

It is helpful for a flight instructor to learn how to analyze student behavior before and during each flight lesson. This ability helps a flight instructor develop and use appropriate techniques for instruction.

Stress is a term to describe the bodys nonspecific response to demands placed upon it. When a threat is perceived, the brain triggers the fight or flight response.

Normal individuals react to stress by:

Abnormal responses to stress include:

Anxiety is a reaction to stress that produces a feeling of worry, nervousness, or unease. It results from fear, real or imagined, which threatens the person who experiences it and may inhibit the ability to learn from perceptions.

Anxiety is often a healthy emotion. Some people affected by anxiety react appropriately, adequately, and more rapidly than they would in the absence of threat. However, chronic anxiety impairs a persons ability to function.

Adverse responses to anxiety include:

Anxiety can be countered by:

A flight instructor who believes a student may be suffering from a serious psychological abnormality has a responsibility to refrain from instructing that student. Instructors should not enable such a person to continue flight training or become a certified pilot.

Signs of serious psychological abnormalities include:

If an instructor believes that a student may have a disqualifying psychological defect, arrangements should be made for another instructor, who is not acquainted with the student, to conduct an evaluation flight. If both instructors believe that the student has a psychological deficiency, endorsements and recommendations must be withheld.

Instructors should contact their local FSDO to report hazardous behaviors that affect airmen certification.

Note: The average age of a student pilot is 34.

As an individual matures, his or her mode of action moves from dependency to self-direction. Since the age of students can vary, the instructor needs to offer a curriculum that addresses the varying degrees of self-direction.

Adult learners:

When training adults, instructors should:

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Human Behavior - mycfibook.com

Robots use game theory to understand how we think – Marketplace

This is part of our Econ Extra Credit project, where we read anintroductory economics textbookprovided by the nonprofitCore Econtogether with our listeners.

Robots are doing their part during the COVID-19 pandemic. They whiz around our hospitals and grocery stores, taking patient temperatures, sanitizing high-touch surfaces and restocking shelves and they help minimize the amount of human contact required to accomplish it all.

Part of a robots job is navigating around the people it encounters.

The thing about these environments our roads, our hospital floors is that theyre not empty. Theyre full of people. And so these robots need to choose their actions carefully, said Anca Dragan, a computer science professor at the University of California, Berkeley. Because you dont want these robots bumping into people.

Which means that robots need to get smart enough about our actions to anticipate what were going to do next. They need to understand us, to a certain extent a tall order if we dont always understand ourselves.

To model human behavior for these robots, engineers might start with the basic goals that motivate us as we move about public spaces: We walk down the produce aisle looking for asparagus, or were trying to get through an intersection before the light turns red.

This is very much borrowed from economics, where we model human behavior there as responding to these incentives or utilities, Dragan told Marketplace Morning Report host David Brancaccio.

But our environment can influence our behavior. If a car turns into our lane up ahead, we might slow down, even if it means missing that light.

The easiest thing to do is what traditional economics does, which is to assume that people are these perfect little game players; theyre perfect optimizers; theyre perfect utility maximizers and were not.

Enter game theory, a bedrock principle of behavioral economics.

Game theory comes from the fact that neither the human nor the robot make decisions about what to do in pursuit of their goals in a vacuum. Theyre aware of each other, Dragan said. There comes this tension: What people do influences what the robot does; what the robot does influences what people do. Its this back and forth. Its kind of a negotiation.

The tools of game theory allow robots to account for the ways people might change course because of the presence or actions of others. And anticipating human action efficiently enables robots to make progress toward their own goals, too.

But game theory relies on rational actors and sometimes, human behavior can seem irrational to the onlooker.

One thing that makes all of this very challenging is that once you think about it in this game theoretic terms, the easiest thing to do is what traditional economics does, which is to assume that people are these perfect little game players; theyre perfect optimizers; theyre perfect utility maximizers and were not. And behavioral economics has told us that for a long time, Dragan said.

Take, for example, somebody who sells their stocks when the stock market crashes. Instead of assuming that they are fundamentally irrational, or they dont care about losing money, we might instead consider the beliefs that could have motivated the action. We might need to tweak our model. Selling your stocks when the market is down appears far more rational if you think the market will fall even further in the future.

Dragan says it is important to teach robots how to follow this sort of reasoning.

They should look at an action and not impart their own understanding of the world on the person, [or] expect the person to be rational under the robots view of the world, she said.

Itll help robots understand us better, so they can help us better.

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Robots use game theory to understand how we think - Marketplace

Human Behavior Model; General Theory of Human Behavior

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Unpacking Covid-19 and the Connections Between Ecosystems, Human Health, and Security – New Security Beat

What are the underlying drivers of risk that created the conditions for Covid-19 to emerge, and how do we better address them? said Lauren Herzer Risi, Project Director for the Environmental Change and Security Program, in this weeks Friday Podcast, recorded during a recent Wilson Center Ground Truth Briefing on the Covid-19 pandemic. This question framed the discussion, which explored the intersection of the environment, public health, and national security. Although the global pandemic came as a shock to many, the novel coronavirus was not a surprise to epidemiologists and experts who had been sounding the alarm for decades. There have been clear signals of the risks we face from animal-to-human virus transmission, including Ebola, SARS, and other regional epidemics, said Risi. These zoonotic diseases, especially now, are creating concerns about food safety, wildlife conservation, and public health. But the risks dont just come from wet markets and our increasingly connected world.

Rapid urbanization and population growth created a ticking time bomb, as we have increasingly intruded into natural habitats. The loss and fragmentation of wildlife ecosystems has brought humans into closer contact with animals than ever before. While the exact origins of coronavirus have yet to be confirmed, we know that this amplified opportunity for virus transmission is a major factor. An estimated 70 percent of new human infectious disease outbreaks come from pathogens that originated in animals, said Sharon Guynup, Global Fellow at the Wilson Center and a National Geographic Explorer.

We are constantly expanding our interaction with animals and nature. We need to be very, very clear that this is a human-made problem, a humanity-made problem, said Dr. Ellen Carlin, Assistant Research Professor at the Center for Global Health Science and Security and Director of the Graduate Program in Global Infectious Disease at Georgetown University. Its really all of us collectively making decisions about the way that we live. Human behavior puts pressure on natural ecosystems through land use and development, mass urbanization, agricultural intensification, extractive industries, and the growing global demand for commodities. Climate change further exacerbates the environmental degradation. Overall this trend is accelerating the emergence of zoonotic diseases in human populations.

Another aspect of this close contact between humans and animals is the prevalence of illegal wildlife trade and consumption. Some have called for bans in China, but wildlife trade and wet markets arent unique to China, and a solution will require global efforts, said Guynup. It will also be crucial to uphold and enforce the bans put into place, as Chinas actions will have a ripple effect on the policies of neighboring consumer and hub countries. For progress to be made, she said, countries must develop multi-pronged approaches, including strengthening policies and enforcement at national levels, raising public awareness, promoting community involvement, and changing consumer behavior. While Covid-19 is much bigger than just a wildlife trade issue, it is a critical piece of the puzzle.

The cascading impacts of the pandemic on human health, national economies, and society has elevated the coronavirus tonot just a public health crisis, but a national security threat as well. There is currently a disconnect between environmental threats and security paradigms, said Rod Schoonover, founder and CEO of Ecological Futures Group. Unfortunately, U.S. national security is outdated and needs to be recalibrated, I think, to reflect the threats that the country faces, he said. Topics like climate change, land use, and biodiversity need to be core national security concerns instead of add-ons to geopolitical goals, said Schoonover, who was Director of Environment and Natural Resources for the National Intelligence Council. Security dialogues need to involve experts such as epidemiologists, ecologists, and climate scientists in order to establish a climate-smart, ecologically informed pandemic preparedness policy. If you understand the deep connectedness of the planet, he said, you understand that the very support system of humanity is in jeopardy.

How to solve the current pandemic is a priority, but developing long-term plans for how we can better prepare for next pandemic is also important. Given the deep interconnectedness of our world, this coronavirus will not be the last outbreak, said Guynup. Among the many scientific and global health initiatives looking to develop solutions, the Global Virome Project is working to discover unknown zoonotic viral threats and stop future pandemics before outbreaks occur. The Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness is coordinating the development of vaccines against coronavirus and emerging infectious diseases. Although there is no binding global legal agreement on wildlife crime, the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES), is scaling up enforcement efforts and incorporating the consideration of health risks.

We need to tackle the drivers of the pandemic to ultimately achieve prevention, said Dr. Carlin. A shift of epic proportions will be needed to reduce environmental and ecosystem harm. We have a choice to ignore recommendations and continue on with business as usual, or we can recognize our vulnerability to these emerging viral threats, Guynup said. Our well-being is inextricably linked with that of the planets web of life, she said. In fact, one could argue that the state of the world can be measured by the state of the wild.

Sources: Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness, Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora, Global Virome Project.

Photo credit:River of Development,March 18, 2005. Courtesy of Flickr userPeter Morgan.

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The Best of This Week – MIT Sloan

Weekly Recap

The weeks must-reads for managing in the digital age, curated by the MIT SMR editors.

The Best of This Week is a roundup of essential articles for managers in the digital age, including content from MIT Sloan Management Review and other publications around the globe, curated by MIT SMR editors.

During the COVID-19 crisis, we at MIT SMR want to support our readers by offering free resources to help during the pandemic.

Escalating work demands and chronic overload can leave employees burned out as they struggle to meet expectations, but employers can address the issue by making reasonable and feasible changes to how work is done. How can companies address overload and its consequences while avoiding the flaws inherent in flexibility as an accommodation? Consider three research-based conditions organizations should foster.

National Geographic explores why Zoom calls leave us with a perplexing sense of being drained while having accomplished nothing. The fact is, perceiving subtle social cues takes little conscious effort in person, but virtual interactions can be exhausting. Hyperfocused on searching for nonverbal cues that it cant find, the brain becomes overwhelmed, particularly when using the Brady Bunch-style gallery view. (Anyone else need a nap?)

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Working from home during a pandemic isnt easy for anyone, but it can be even tougher for working parents. Left unchecked, the challenges faced by employees trying to work in managed chaos could torpedo their productivity and creativity. Leaders and companies need to move rapidly to gain quick wins to help employees manage their work lives now and to prepare for longer-term changes.

Behavioral science is a powerful tool that can be used to direct human behaviors toward sustainable outcomes. But too often, it focuses downstream, on changing end users behavior, rather than upstream, on earlier design processes. A recent panel report explores the untapped potential of design behavior for sustainability and why engaging with diverse stakeholders is critical.

Sustainability and digitization, two significant global business trends over the past several years, have developed more or less independently of each other and are too often treated as distinct concerns. But sustainable practices are good for the environment and beneficial for business, too. Spanning four areas social, economic, technological, and environmental corporate digital responsibility merges sustainability and digitization.

I dont think of resilience as bouncing back. There is no back. Clocks dont go backwards. Calendars dont go backwards. Were moving forward. And the ability for people to move forward with hope is when you see resilience helping them bounce forward through that and then building trust. Every action, every decision you make throughout this crisis, is either going to build trust or degrade from it.

Eric McNulty, associate director of the National Preparedness Leadership Initiative at Harvard University, in this weeks Three Big Points podcast episode, Leading Through a Crisis Day by Day

The Best of This Week is a roundup of essential articles for managers in the digital age, including content from MIT Sloan Management Review and other publications around the globe, curated by MIT SMR editors.

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The Best of This Week - MIT Sloan

On the Wing – Keypennews

Language in theTime of Plague

Stay safe, the cashier at the checkout said as I was putting my groceries back in the cart and getting ready to head out.

It was a couple of weeks after Gov. Inslee had issued his stay-at-home order in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. I hadnt been to the store or anywhere, for that matter since the day of the proclamation. Amazingly I had managed to keep my refrigerator stocked to the gills for a while, but after two weeks my supplies were dwindling and I could no longer delay a trip to the store.

I had recently begun to notice that Stay safe and Stay healthy were becoming the preferred ways to end emails between friends, but that moment at the store was the first time I had heard that spoken in real life. Along with keeping the required distance from the customer in line ahead of me, it was a clear acknowledgment of these perilous times.

My mind was still on pre-coronavirus autopilot though. In that version of the interaction the cashier would have said Have a nice day or something similar. It took me a couple of seconds to recalibrate and respond. The world was different now, there were new versions of the essential scripts we live by. Quick, get the updates.

Thanks you too! I replied, my timing a few milliseconds off, adding my usual See ya! as I pushed my cart towards the exit. I smiled; this may be a different world, but we still live for our connections with others.

The scripts we all share the blueprints that guide our interactions exist to make sure that those connections dont get frayed. Those blueprints are the subject of conversation analysis, a branch of linguistics and other social sciences that study human behavior. Whether its sharing jokes with friends, showing someone how to operate a piece of machinery, or engaging in the brief back-and-forth with the cashier at the grocery store, our verbal interactions are governed by an intricately timed choreography that all of us as members of the same community have internalized.

Stock expressions serve as road signs as we negotiate each interaction. In a setting like the grocery checkout an important marker is Have a nice day, a phrase spoken at the conclusion of the interaction, typically by the cashier. The timing of that phrase is very precise: it comes after the transaction is complete, your groceries are back in the cart and youve already taken the first steps away from the checkout area. It will feel too soon if the cashier says that if youre still in the middle of paying, and too late if youre already 20 feet away from the checkout.

My own response to that phrase in those cases is often a quick You too see ya! Whether or not I will go on to have a nice day is immaterial; in a situation where the participants in the interaction are at best casual acquaintances and have business to transact, Have a nice day is nothing more than a cheerful equivalent of Bye or See you later. Nothing more, nothing less.

That does not mean that a cashier, for example, is required to close the conversation with that phrase. It does mean that if they do, the exchange will most likely follow the pattern set in the conversations blueprint.

So now lets circle back to what the cashier said as I was leaving that day.

Stay safe was a departure from the script as I knew it. It wasnt entirely a rewrite of that script, however; the phrase was spoken at the exact point in the interaction where the default Have a nice day would have been, so clearly it had replaced it, at least at that moment.

Such defaults are not changed lightly if our interactions are to continue running like well-oiled machines. There has to be a good reason if theyre overridden. That day the cashier chose to conclude the interaction not with the conventional stock expression but with a phrase whose meaning hasnt faded yet. These are dangerous times, that choice said; be careful.

An article I read recently pointed out that our need for comfort these days is real, and its strong. I would add that the need for comfort is reciprocal; we need to be comforted, but we also need to comfort others, even if its just by altering a short phrase in a well-practiced script spoken to a customer at the grocery store checkout.

Maybe the linguist in me is reading too much into this. Maybe, but my gratitude for that moment of shared concern was very real.

Stay safe out there.

Joseph Pentheroudakis has a doctorate in linguistics. He writes from Herron Island.

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On the Wing - Keypennews

Yellowstone’s wolves 25 years after reintroduction: The effects on hunters and human safety – KSL.com

Editor's note: This is the fourth and final part in a series of articles looking at the impact of reintroducing wolves in Yellowstone National Park 25 years ago. For a look into its effect on ranchers, click here.

YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK Early conservationists and hunters were unenthusiastic about predators generally and wolves in particular. President Theodore Roosevelt, among the nations most prolific and celebrated hunters, whose administration drastically expanded predator eradication programs referred to wolves as "the beast of waste and desolation." Many of Roosevelts spiritual successors still reflect this view.

But what is fact? What is fiction? And what is exaggeration?

Wolves prey on elk and humans prey on elk that much is clear. But evidence suggests wolves and hunters prey predominantly on separate segments of elk populations. A 10-year study of wolf predation found that the average age of a wolf-killed elk cow varied between 13 and 16 years old. Hunter-killed cow elk average between 2 and 6 years old and constitute the most fertile, reproducing population. Although the study also said, "regulated hunter harvest of young adult females is unlikely to reduce elk numbers" alone.

The greatest impact by wolves on elk numbers and thus hunting opportunity likely results from wolf-killed calves. It's important to note that mountain lions, and bears have been shown to prey more heavily on calves than wolves, and there are still questions regarding how much natural predation adds to or replaces loss to winter, disease, and starvation.

There have been drastic reductions in some elk populations and corresponding hunting and viewing opportunities. Many hunters in tracking both real and perceived reductions since wolves were reintroduced remain convinced wolves are to blame. Thanks to 25 years of data, we now know this interpretation, though popular, is likely inaccurate exaggerating the effects of wolves and neglecting dozens of less publicized influences that have occurred in parallel with wolf recovery, such as a warming climate. For more on this topic make sure to read this previous article in this series.

Beyond population fluctuations caused by dozens of factors, wolves along with other recovered predator populations may have also affected elk distribution behavior. Anecdotally, hunters and outfitters may see fewer elk in areas where they once congregated in greater abundance, but observations may not reflect actual numbers. The best indicator of elk population health and viability remains proximity to population objectives.

Elk herds in Idaho, Wyoming and Montana are all reported as generally within or above population objectives. Idaho is even reporting hunter harvests matching the historic highs of the 80s and 90s prior to wolf reintroduction.

With depictions of wolves in nursery rhymes, folk tales, TV and movies, it is natural to have questions regarding the safety of people who share the landscape with these long-absent predators. According to Yellowstones chief wildlife biologist Doug Smith, there were roughly 20 attacks on humans in North America during the 20th century and all nonfatal. He noted that some attacks have since occurred and two of them were fatal. Other estimates put the number of documented wolf attacks at 32 since 1781. Zero attacks have occurred in Greater Yellowstone in the 25 years since wolves were reintroduced.

There are a number of recent incidents worth discussion. In 2018 a research student climbed a tree to avoid a wolf pack. The encounter did not appear to be aggressive and it is thought that the pack in question may have denned in the area. In 2019, a camper in Banff National Park in Alberta was attacked, largely mirroring a similar event in Minnesota six years before that the states first known wolf attack.

A fatal attack occurred in 2010 near Anchorage, Alaska, when Candice Berner, a school teacher, was killed by a pack of wolves. The participating wolves were identified and killed. They were determined to be healthy and are not believed to have been habituated or food-conditioned, which is normally the case in wolf attacks. The attack remains troubling and unique.

By comparison, mountain lions are blamed with about two dozen fatal attacks in North America in the last 100 years, according to Outside. Fatal and nonfatal bear attacks in Greater Yellowstone averaged between one and two a year. The likelihood of being attacked by a bear or mountain lion is extremely remote wolves even more so.

Attacks by predators are largely tied to habituation, food conditioning, starvation or disease. Even more so in the case of wolves, according to Smith. He stated that unlike bears and mountain lions, wolves "never attack a person on their first encounter with a human." He added in a recent Facebook live video that, "wolves are probably the least dangerous large carnivore in North America." The data seems to support Smiths belief.

Like all wild animals, wolves should be viewed from an appropriate distance. People who share space with all kinds of wildlife should be diligent about keeping food and trash inaccessible. Whether a wolf, bear, elk, bison, or squirrel; habituated animals represent the greatest threat to people. Regarding human behavior and its effects on animals, it's often been said, "wildlife management is comparatively easy; human management is difficult."

For centuries, land and wildlife management were predominantly calibrated toward agricultural and hunting interests. And while farming, ranching and hunting remain central to management strategies, they now share that space with a growing interest in preserving and restoring natural systems. Wolves are, in many ways, emblematic of this shift in attitudes and policy.

In the early days "people werent thinking about ecosystems," Smith said. Yellowstone and other areas were set aside mainly in an effort to preserve scenery and geologic curiosities. Historically, predators were excluded from the charge to preserve wildlife, even in protected areas. As a result, coherent, intact ecosystems have been mostly relegated to the worlds most remote reaches, if not lost completely.

Since the restoration of species including wolves, Yellowstone is the closest thing we have to a fully-intact ecosystem within the contiguous United States. We live in a world that is "largely artificial." Smith says. For him, restoring Yellowstones ecosystem is about "restoring nature in the midst of humanity."

"Its real. Its not artificial and contrived," he said. "Wolves really are a lure for people ... people are streaming in to see wolves because its real nature, its real life and we dont get that anymore. It means a great deal to a lot of people the world even."

Illustrating this point, retired interpretive ranger Rick McIntyre shared a number of stories including his partnership with Make A Wish, helping kids realize their dream of seeing wolves in the wild. According to Smith, there is likely no better place to see wolves than Yellowstone.

The story of wildlife and the story of public land management is really the story of people. Not everyone has the same vision of what stewardship or responsible use means, but if we substitute fact with fiction, and reality with fable, we cripple the ability to be wise stewards. People and wildlife alike suffer as a result.

"Wolves are among the most studied species in the world, Smith says, adding they have been closely monitored and studied despite the National Park Services charge to have "a light touch."

He added in a recent Facebook live interview, if wolves are not closely studied, "people will make stories up."

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Yellowstone's wolves 25 years after reintroduction: The effects on hunters and human safety - KSL.com