Category Archives: Human Behavior

Auto industry must address worker, shopper fear – Automotive News

When the North American auto industry returns to work after almost two months of isolation, workers returning to plants and offices will be carrying more than lunch pails and newly mandated protective equipment. Most are likely to bring a very natural dose of fear with them.

Fear is perhaps the most powerful motivator of human behavior a fact known well to those who design political attack ads for a living. Fear instinctively drives human beings to act, often irrationally and even against their own long-term self-interests, with a singular desire to continue living, to escape the existential threat or avoid a known danger.

In the case of COVID-19, the fear is legitimate and understandable. The death toll continues to rise to shocking levels, even as doctors and researchers race to develop treatments and ultimately a vaccine.

Businesses keen to reopen stores and factories must respect the fear their employees will feel, for themselves and for their families and communities. In addition to their personal risk, there's the awareness that a second wave of infections is a real possibility, that it could be worse than what's been seen already and that the economic pain of withstanding the first one may have been for naught.

And the wariness of that risk isn't exclusive to employees: Neighbors, vendors and especially customers are also going to feel it.

Addressing it is a twofold challenge. Job 1 is ensuring that the work environment is as safe as can be, adopting best practices for hygiene and human resources even as they evolve. The second part is making sure that employees and customers also feel reasonably safe.

Employers should start by acknowledging the dangers and vowing to take them seriously. Work practices must be revised and protective equipment procured. Demonstrations of compassion and of shared sacrifice can go a long way.

Once the medical system has the needed testing, tracing and treatment capacities, restarting the auto industry will be good for the economy. For those idled by this pandemic, returning to work should make them feel better fiscally, physically and emotionally.

Calming the fear requires patience now, and it may require even more when everyone comes back to work.

See original here:
Auto industry must address worker, shopper fear - Automotive News

The Heart Of The Great Barrier Reef – The Weather Channel

An aerial view of Heart Reef in the Great Barrier Reef. The photo was taken near Whitsunday Islands, Queensland, Australia.

Its like a secret love note from the earth.

Tucked in the Great Barrier Reef, Heart Reef is a favored destination by travelers looking for adventure, for luxury and to express their love.

Located off the coast of eastern Australia, the Great Barrier Reef is the largest coral reef system in the world, made up of nearly 3,000 reefs and 900 islands.

Heart Reef, named such because of its shape, is one of those 3,000 reefs. It was discovered by a local pilot in 1975, and is now an internationally recognized attraction. Heart Reef is located in the heart of the Great Barrier Reef in Hardy Reef, a suspended lagoon. Hardy Reef itself is a significant site within the Great Barrier Reef, both because it is close to the mainland and because it has some of the most stunning coral and marine species in the entire reef.

The reef attracts tourists and photographers alike, hoping to catch a glimpse of the heart-shaped reef.

The thing about Heart Reef is you cant actually swim there. Or snorkel. Or dive. Or anything, really. This is because Heart Reef has a protected status, as a way to maintain the ecology and splendor of the reef.

So how, exactly, are you supposed to visit and experience this wonder, you may ask? The best way is by flight.

There are seaplane and helicopter options that leave from the nearby Whitsunday Islands, and could take you over the reef. Internet reviews indicate that if you tell the pilot that youre going on the plane tour for a proposal or a declaration of love of any sort, theyll do an extra loop or two over the reef to give you more time over the pristine heart.

When you search Heart Reef on Instagram, there are just upward of 20,000 posts of travelers posting their breathtaking aerial photos from above the reef.

Will you be one of them?

One small ecological note to keep in mind for your visit: like many coral reefs around the world, the Great Barrier Reef and the marine wildlife that depends on it are suffering due to human behavior. Practices like overfishing, water pollution and the rise in ocean temperature due to human induced climate change are just a few examples.

The Weather Companys primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.

Read the original post:
The Heart Of The Great Barrier Reef - The Weather Channel

Check It Out: Books about bunnies make for hoppy reading – The Columbian

Heres the thing about sheltering in place my mind wanders. Not that my mind was a steel trap before the pandemic, but now I have time to contemplate stuff. For example, the other afternoon I was sitting outside enjoying the spring weather when three bunnies appeared in my yard (in my house theyre called bunnies not rabbits, an important distinction). They munched on the grass, scratched their ears and engaged in several rounds of what I call zoomies chasing each other in short bursts then stopping and freezing in place. After one of these zoomie sessions, I looked up and saw that they were sitting about 10 feet away from each other making a perfect cottontail triangle. Were they practicing social distancing? Heres another thing I wondered: Bunny zoomies are probably a part of the spring ritual that drives many species to parenthood, but could they also signify pure bunny joy while humans hunker down indoors? Does the rabbit network, by way of foot thumps and nose wriggles, provide updates to fellow buns about the pandemic and human behavior?

As you can see, my days have been filled with deep thoughts. And watching bunnies. I know that April is the big bunny month, but that train has left the station, so Im going to pay tribute to my long-eared, zoomie-powered yard dwellers during the fine month of May. Books about bunnies are especially appealing to kids (and kids-at-heart), so the focus for todays reading list is on childrens e-books. Peter is there, of course, as well as a bunny named Max, and hold on to your ears, a vampire rabbit named Bunnicula. Dont worry, Bunnicula is harmless, but he will induce some grins and giggles.

Hoppy May, readers!

10 Hungry Rabbits: Counting and Color Concepts by Anita Lobel.

Bunnicula Meets Edgar Allan Crow by James Howe.

The Bunnies Are Not in Their Beds by Marisabina Russo.

I Am a Bunny by Ole Risom and Richard Scarry.

Maxs Bunny Business by Rosemary Wells.

Mr. and Mrs. Bunny Detectives Extraordinare! by Polly Horvath.

Rascally Rabbits!: And More True Stories of Animals Behaving Badly by Aline Alexander Newman.

The Tale of Peter Rabbit by Beatrix Potter.

Jan Johnston is the collection development coordinator for the Fort Vancouver Regional Libraries. Email her at readingforfun@fvrl.org.

See the article here:
Check It Out: Books about bunnies make for hoppy reading - The Columbian

With Humans Away, Animals in National Parks are Having a Ball – Smithsonian.com

As people stay home, animals have national parks almost entirely to themselves.

At the end of April, the Yosemite National Park Facebook page shared a video sharing the events of the last month. The video shows foxes, deer, bears and a bobcat wandering the park. Some were unusually close to the roads and other infrastructure that are usually populated with visitors. The appearance of animals in usually busy areas might prompt changes in how the space is used when the park reopens.

As you get people off trails and reduce the amount of human activity and movement in some of these rural-urban areas, wildlife really seem to key into that, says Montana State University wildlife researcher Tony Clevenger to Discover magazines Leslie Nemo.

Elk have been spotted using sidewalks in Canadian towns like Banff, near Banff National Park, CBC reports. In South Africas Kruger National Park, park ranger Richard Sowry spotted lions napping along the road, per the BBC. And bear sightings have increased near Yosemites Ahwahnee Hotel.

Its not like they arent usually here, Dane Peterson, who works at the hotel, told the Los Angeles Times in April. Its that they usually hang back at the edges, or move in the shadows.

The presence of humans can impact animal behavior in substantial ways, Kaitlyn Gaynor, a wildlife ecologist at the University of California, Santa Barbara, tells Discover magazine. Her research shows that human activity, including hiking, seems to have pushed mammals, including coyotes and deer, to become more nocturnal than they are when humans arent around. And roads, when used frequently, cut up national park habitats, so without traffic, animals can safely cross the road to reach food, shelter and mates.

The change could be especially beneficial to bears that are now emerging from winter hibernation and looking for food. In Banff National Park, bears forage south-facing hillsides for snacks, which often leads to conflicts with tourists on the same sunny hillsides, Discover reports.

"Probably the wildlife are really rapidly getting used to having a place to themselves and using areas closer to where people would normally occur but are not found now," University of Alberta biologist Colleen Cassady St. Clair tells CBC. "So I think the big surprises are going to come when those areas reopen."

Gaynor tells Discover that human-wildlife conflicts will probably increase once shelter-in-place orders are lifted and people return to the parks. People are supposed to give national park wildlife a wide berth, exemplified by television reporter Deion Broxtons reaction to an approaching herd of bison in Yellowstone National Park. Yellowstone normally opens on the first Friday in May, but this year the park remains closed with plans for a staged opening, Ruffin Prevost reports for the Billings Gazette.

Clevenger tells Discover that visitors are the primary conservation concern for the protected habitatsthe National Park Service saw record numbers of visitors in total in 2016, with 330 million visits across the United States national parks. Wildlife cameras and GPS collars that were already in use before shelter-in-place orders were declared may reveal new parts of the parks that need added protection, Gaynor tells Discover.

"A lot of the animals that are known to be urban exploiters, as they're sometimes called, are really tremendously flexible in their behavior," St. Clair tells CBC. "They're masters of observing changes in their environment and they respond to them really quickly."

When parks open up again, St. Clair says, We should be ready to cut [the animals] some slack and to use extra precautions and just double down on all the things we know we should do."

More:
With Humans Away, Animals in National Parks are Having a Ball - Smithsonian.com

Star Wars’ Anthony Daniels fell asleep the first time he saw Rise of Skywalker – CNET

Anthony Daniels, a giant Lego C-3PO and me.

Perhaps it was the will of the Force. In the wake of seeing Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker in December, I decided to dive into actor Anthony Daniels' I Am C-3PO: The Inside Story.

The memoir, written in a warm, idiosyncratic style that's unmistakably Daniels', gave me a newfound appreciation and affection for the man who played the lovably exhausting golden droid. And when I spotted him in a London train station on a crisp Sunday morning a few weeks later, I brushed aside my sleepy haze from just arriving on an overnight flight.

Daniels' book guides you through his years playing the beloved Star Wars protocol droid.

"Are you Anthony Daniels?" I asked the slight, silver-haired man standing next to me at a coffee dock.

"Some people say I am," he responded in a tone my tired brain read as slightly wary.

Managing to play it cool, I told the 74-year-old that I'd thoroughly enjoyed his book. We chatted briefly and exchanged email addresses before he went off on a hike with wife Christine Savage.

I'm a major Star Wars fan, and the delightful, unexpected encounter was enough to leave me buzzed. But a few weeks later, I realized that journalistic duty demanded I ask him to sit down for an interview, which he agreed to, at his London home.

So on a rainy afternoon in early March, shortly before the city locked down, the couple greeted me warmly in their marble hallway. Daniels offered me tea -- yes, there is something quite surreal about the man behind C-3PO serving a beverage. He prefers a strong cup of the English Breakfast variety, with some milk. He also presented me with a plate of Marks & Spencers All Butter Stem Ginger Cookies, his favorites, as we sat down.

In their well-lit, tastefully decorated home, Daniels and I chatted about working on The Rise of Skywalker(which hits Disney Plus on Monday), revisiting his 43-year career to write his book, his favorite jobs and whether or not Threepio could ever exist.

Now playing: Watch this: Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker - Official Trailer (2019)

2:20

"I will tell you a secret," the actor says with sheepish mirth, before recounting the first time he saw the final movie in the Skywalker Saga last December.

Christine Savage and Daniels attend The Rise of Skywalker's London premiere last December -- after which Daniels told director J.J. Abrams he'd slept through most of his initial viewing.

Exhausted after months of traveling for his book-signing tour and promoting the film, he caught a "minor bug" and was hit with a bout of laryngitis while in Los Angeles. A car whisked him and Savage to director J.J. Abrams' screening room, where they joined Daniels' cast mates in a few glasses of "medicinal" wine and watched the first 20 minutes of the movie.

"And [I] fell deeply, deeply asleep," he said. "J.J.'s viewing theater is gorgeously comfortable, it's just wonderful. Too comfortable -- I was exhausted. Christine woke me up just before the end."

Daniels felt crushingly guilty as he dozed in the car ride back across LA, but he thought his 40 winks had gone largely unnoticed.

"It was only after the premiere in London -- when I avidly watched [the film] all the way through -- that I admitted to J.J. that I'd fallen asleep at his screening," he said. " 'I know,' he told me, with a laugh."

I told him how my girlfriend was basically in tears over C-3PO's newly iconic line -- "Taking one last look, sir, at my friends" -- as he prepares to sacrifice himself with a factory reset at the hands of droidsmith Babu Frik (a character Daniels "adores").

"You can tell her I was too," he responded with a warm smile. "I found it very moving on the set and to actually watch it."

He credits Abrams and his screenwriting partner Chris Terrio for the line itself, and editors Maryann Brandon and Stefan Grube for adding emotional weight by cutting to Daisy Ridley's and John Boyega's reactions. "I just said the script -- but I said it nicely!" CNET editor-in-chief Connie Guglielmo also broached this topic when she spoke to Daniels a few weeks ago.

Daniels loved how dismissive Poe Dameron was of Threepio.

But other small moments of friendship were cut from the finished film.

"Particularly with Poe, [who was] just deliciously played by Oscar Isaac. He was so dismissive of Threepio," Daniels said. "And I would just laugh every time in rehearsal because Oscar would say it just so -- not cruelly or rudely -- you just got his frustration with his comrade."

I suggested that it'd be amazing to actually hear all the lines cut from the movie and -- in one of the interview's wilder moments -- Daniels pulled out his iPhone, on which he'd recorded some dialogue for the film. It was a glimpse of the moviemaking process in our hyperconnected world.

BB-8: Faster than Threepio.

From the iPhone Threepio's voice yells, "Slow down, I am not as fast as a ball," presumably remarking on a moment when he failed to keep pace with fellow droid BB-8.

I also heard a few iterations of expository lines that didn't make it.

"This message has been sent as a warning to the Resistance. Palpatine Palpatine lives, and is now in league with Kylo Ren," Threepio said, his prim and proper voice tinged with suitable graveness. "Palpatine and Kylo Ren are now poised to deploy the legendary Sith armada."

Considering how directing duties for the movie shifted after Colin Trevorrow stepped down and Abrams took back the reins, I asked if he found the experience any more fragmented than in previous movies.

"No but the changes were fairly constant and you get used to inconsistency," he said. As I say in the book, I actually stopped really cramming the words in because I knew they were going to change on the day."

Of course, the decision to resurrect big bad Emperor Palpatine led the movie to some throwback locations. One such place was the villain's ruined throne room, last seen in Return of the Jedi.

"We did walk on the set of the Death Star, which was, even without the stage lighting, a really scary set," he said. "It was so cleverly done, that throne on one side. The sets magic."

The late Carrie Fisher appeared in The Rise of Skywalker through archival footage.

The same could be said of how the movie used the late actor Carrie Fisher, who died in 2016. Abrams and his team managed to bring her into The Rise of Skywalker using repurposed extra footage from The Force Awakens, and I asked what it was like for Daniels to see his castmate brought back to life.

"It was OK, it's part of the suspension of disbelief," he said fondly. "My memories of her are strong enough. The use of the character wasn't quite as much as I hoped, but she was there and she was acknowledged as having passed away in the story. I do remember the day on the set was quite moving, with all the extras and other artists being rather quiet. I think she would have laughed."

A dapper Daniels poses with a cutout of his golden alter-ego in London in 1980.

Daniels' writing style in the book is a little like the Star Wars movies. He begins with A New Hope, the 1977 movie that got it all started, before jumping around the timeline of his career.

"I realized that the films, including The Rise of Skywalker, did make a kind of clothesline, and acted like markers on it," he said. "I could then weave things around it, trying not to make the jumps too difficult. And I wanted it to be more or less the way I speak, which is in partial sentences like most people."

He admitted that he occasionally found the writing experience "quite lonely."

"Because nobody else was contributing," he said. "But then I realized that I was remembering quite human-filled moments, experiences, whatever. So maybe I delved into the companionship of those moments."

It took him more than a year to write the book, but it was during a period when he had a lot of time to focus. "I was lucky in many ways that I had train travel, a lot of aeroplane travel. Being on a film set, we have a lot of time on our hands," he said. "And I was kind of disciplined -- some days were better than others."

He showed me a mockup of the now-published Japanese version and said he was excited to read his book in French, a language he knows. That version is coming in October, with Spanish and Korean editions to follow. The Ewokese version might take a little longer, he noted with a smile. "First the Ewoks have to learn to read," he said.

The Ewokese version of Daniels' book might be while off yet.

Given their reaction to Threepio in Return of the Jedi, where the Ewoks revere the golden droid as a golden god, I suggested there's no way they'd besmirch the holy tome in such a manner.

"Ah yes, and indeed they would fall down and worship," he responded, his smile growing. "Yes, you're absolutely right."

Rather less warmly, he also recalled a moment when Star Wars-owner Disney tried to make a change and he had to put his foot down. The company didn't like that the word "turd" was used in relation to the infamous Star Wars Holiday Special, but Daniels insisted on keeping it.

George Lucas directs a gold suited-Daniels on the set of the original Star Wars in 1976.

Since we were talking about the Original Trilogy, I asked him whether he agreed with my impression that though George Lucas was a creative and technical genius, he didn't always express himself to his actors -- they've joked that all he ever said was "faster" or "more intense."

"He expresses himself through the movies and particularly through the editing process," Daniels said, rather diplomatically. "He admits to being more comfortable with that. He basically is trusting the people that he's employed. And he may not find it easy communicating with actors or crew, but when you look at that first film particularly, boy, did he communicate with the audience."

Daniels makes it clear in his book that narrating Star Wars: In Concert, a touring series of live performances showcasing composer John Williams' iconic scores, has been the highlight of his career. When I asked him if any other experience came close, he immediately jumped to Star Tours, the simulator ride in Disney Parks around the world.

Threepio waits to greet visitors to Star Tours, which opened in 1987. His role in the simulator ride expanded when it was overhauled in 2011.

"The editing on Star Tours is miraculous, and I've had such joy voicing sequences," he said. "The problem for me is usually Threepio is hysterical with fear, and it's a hard voice to do full-on, for days. I have to be careful."

One topic that doesn't bring Daniels joy -- rage is a more accurate term -- is fake autographs. His book highlights the time he acted as a witness for the FBI as the agency made a case against some forgers. That drove me to his website, where he documents such fakes and adds a little commentary for flavor.

"They're mostly appalling," he said of the forgeries. "Some are borderline and I don't put those on the site because I might have had an off-day, because most people's signature varies slightly."

"My parts are showing?" Threepio's early days, as seen in The Phantom Menace.

I asked Daniels if he thought Threepio had developed as a character across the saga. By the end of The Rise of Skywalker, the droid had, after all, been in continuous service for nearly 70 in-universe years.

"Threepio is a machine. There's a microwave in there," he said, pointing to his kitchen. "It's a microwave, but we cook different things within it. So you're changing not the context, but the contents, and that makes a difference. The way he really possibly changes is with the dynamics of other characters and with the situations."

He noted that Detective Saga Norn (Sofia Helin) in Nordic crime show The Bridge made him think of a Threepio line from The Empire Strikes Back: "Sometimes I just don't understand human behavior."

"She just says things straight out. She hasn't learned the social niceties of wrapping things up," he said.

People regularly tell him that Threepio makes them feel more comfortable in their skin, because they often don't understand human behavior either.

"We're all more sensitive to that these days, we understand that people are different in all sorts of ways," he said. "Often, a difference here is made up by an exquisite skill over here."

Though we have lifelike humanoid robots today, Daniels doesn't think robots in our world will ever exist like they do in a galaxy far, far away.

"AI is advancing rapidly, but it's already heading towards a buffer point where you begin to question it -- now people are even questioning the rights of AI -- -- because it is potentially open to abuse of all sorts." he said.

He pointed to the films Bicentennial Man and AI: Artificial Intelligence, which premiered in 1998 and 2001, respectively, as examples of how he thinks the tech could develop. He also cited the 2004 movie I, Robot, in which a synthetic army rebels against humanity, as a believable example of how things could go wrong.

Daniels highlighted the movie Bicentennial Man as having a believable vision of how robots could become a part of our lives.

"It is interesting to think that those three films are, to a great extent, dystopian in their treatment of robots and the fear of them, or the emotional response," he mused.

When I suggest that Threepio and other tech in Star Wars could inspire people to create it in reality, he points to the work of Cynthia Breazeal, the head of the Personal Robots group at the MIT Media Lab.

"She saw Artoo and Threepio as a kid and she said 'Yeah, I want to do that,'" he said. "And she is doing that, particularly in the field of haptic responses. They appear to have nerves, they react to being stroked."

I noted that this work mirrors the prosthetic limbs we see in Star Wars -- where characters regularly lose appendages in lightsaber duels.

"George didn't invent prosthetics, but he certainly showed their use with Vader and Luke and so on," he agreed.

Earth's increasing population is a reason not to make robots, he said. Instead, humans are perfectly capable of fulfilling most of their own needs.

"You have to say 'Why do I want this?' But of course, people relate to pets, people relate to the computer. We shout at it, sometimes we apologize to it. I'm leery of it," he said. "I'm quite happy with the current situation because it means I can go on working as Threepio."

After nearly two hours, my time with Daniels came to a close -- he and his wife had an evening event to attend. After saying our farewells, I was back on the streets of London, slightly unsure if my time with someone whose work had delighted me for decades had been a reality or a trick of my pop culture-soaked imagination.

Read more from the original source:
Star Wars' Anthony Daniels fell asleep the first time he saw Rise of Skywalker - CNET

Rally Over? The Point Is Smoot. Why The 1930s Continues To Be A Bear Track To Follow. – Forbes

Archivist - stock.adobe.com

You have probably heard that history doesnt repeat, but it often rhymes. Well, the further we travel through 2020 (even if we cant travel much the way we are accustomed to), history is turning into quite a poet.

Recently I brought to your attention some economic similarities that occurred a long time ago, but which I truly believe have relevance today. Because at its core, human behavior doesnt change radically. We are wired a certain way. And, since markets move based on decisions made by humans (and increasingly by human-inspired algorithms), we simply cant ignore parallels to past periods in economic and market history.

The table below simply says this: there is a remarkable similarity between how 1931 (2 years after the Crash of 1929) played out and the way this version of a recession/depression-era economy is developing. In fact, one thing I left out of my recent piece on the subject was a mention of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, in which the United States slapped tariffs on about 20,000 imported goods. This occurred in 1930, one year before the market went from tenuous to, well, not so good. Sound familiar?

YCharts

I have set this up so that we can come back to it as the year moves along, just in case we have to consider this serious threat to retirement wealth any more than we already do. The first 3 rows are in the books already. As the right half of the chart shows, the Dow peaked this year on February 12. It fell from that high level by 37%, then rallied back by over 32%.

Quite an 11-week period there! That left the Dow at 24,634 when it topped out last Wednesday, April 29. Thats about 17% below where it peaked in February.

Now, look at the left side of the table. I tracked the movement of the Dow back in 1931, and applied a multiplier to 1931s high, to equate it to 2020s high price. Thats a fancy way of saying I divided 29,551 by 194.36, and then applied that factor across the rest of 1931s debacle of a market. That gave me projected values of the Dow in 2020 at each major top and bottom along the way.

If you play out the left side of the chart from 1931, and then project it to the right side of the chart for 2020, you see where the Dows price could go if the similarities continued. To summarize, wed see the worst of it in the coming months, with the Dow dropping to the 13,000 area. Thats a Dow level not seen since early 2013.

As is typical of bear markets, the Dow would then rally hard (again) to well over 17,000. Then, just when we thought it was safe to go back in the equity market water, the years final push downward would bring the Dow to around 11,000.

I know that you are looking at this saying that cant happen, can it? I am not a wizard, and no crystal ball lines my desk. However, I am a realist. And since the last 2 bear markets (2007-2009, and 2000-2003) each saw the Dow drop in the 50%+ range, is this a possibility to include when setting your portfolio strategy for the rest of the year? I think you know the answer.

You might be wondering, if this is playing out so much like 1931, where are we now, and what would a Back to the Future chart of the Dow look like? Answer: take the value of your S&P 500 or similar U.S. equity index fund, cut its value in half, and there you go. See the chart below, measured from where the first Dow bounce ended after the first Dow crash in 1931.

^DJIY_chart (1)

As you might imagine, I have done a lot of this work over the years. It is part of my overall process of marrying technical, quantitative and fundamental investment market analysis. After all, without history, you are doing a lot more guessing than you should.

This is one of the stronger developing trends I have seen. It could go nowhere. However, if an investor chooses to ignore the potential for worst-case outcomes, that over-confidence can ruin a retirement plan. There are many possibilities in every stock market climate. The key is to efficiently evaluate several, and determine a prudent allocation of your assets based on the probability of different scenarios actually occurring. That gives you a big leg up in years like 2020....and 1931.

Comments provided are informational only, not individual investment advice or recommendations. Sungarden provides Advisory Services through Dynamic Wealth Advisors.

Read the original:
Rally Over? The Point Is Smoot. Why The 1930s Continues To Be A Bear Track To Follow. - Forbes

Something Sickening Other Than the Virus | opinions , columnists – The National Herald

The coronavirus lockdown, quarantine, social distancing, sheltering in place or whatever other moniker is attributed to it is an interesting study of human behavior that to a great extent neatly transfers to politics.Roughly half of the country is blasting elected officials for over-the-top hysterics and histrionic overreactions to the magnitude and intensity of the contagion, citing the dangers of quarantining to stifling the herd immunity that is imperative to our survival as a species, as well as the devastating economic impact they swear will kill far more people...

Link:
Something Sickening Other Than the Virus | opinions , columnists - The National Herald

ELAM: Depends on What You think is Normal – Odessa American

When do you think things will return to normal?

Maria Bartiromo to her guest on Fox Business this morning

Here are the facts. The stock market peaked Feb. 12 at 29,551 closing. The first wave down lasted 26 trading days ending March 23 at 18,214. Wave two up was equal in time ending this past Wednesday April 29 at 24,633. Wave three began immediately Thursday closing down 288. In pre-market trading Friday the DJIA was down over 400 points.

How can I be so sure Feb. 12 was a terminal top? Volume on the wave two rebound declined every one of the 26 days. If this were a new bull market (the mantra of every Certified Financial Planner) volume would be expanding.

But hold on Professor, the NASD has recouped near all its drop. Yes but that is due to the over weighting of five tech stocks which account for 38% of the NASD value. Those same five are 20% of the S & P 500. Breadth (fewer and fewer stocks participate in the rally) is the final casualty of a bull market. On Feb. 12, 80% of the S & P 500 were over their 200 day moving average. That number peaked again at 30% on Wednesday. Watching TV cable business news which touts every rally in five stocks as the entire market is grossly misleading.

So what went wrong? Only the US Stock market recovered to a new high after the 2009 market low. The rest of the world never made a new high. There is TMS Too Much Stuff financed at low rates. The solution is lower prices (deflation) and bankruptcy, the latter now underway in the oil patch.

Learn Elliott Wave Theory for EWT free at https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=market_analysis:introduction_to_elliott_wave_theory. Only a realistic map of human behavior will prepare one for what lies ahead.

The EWT is simply that mass psychology in a down market moves in three waves down (1,3,5) and two correcting waves (1,4) up and sideways. Elliott was an accountant who observed these patterns in greater and lesser fractals in the 1930s. When social mood is strong, the theory is evident on most charts and works well. Note how specific the dates and turn points have been. Readers are also advised to check out http://www.deflation.com.

Meanwhile the media will distract with headlines like one I see now, Futures fall after Trumps China tariff threat. No, futures are falling in predictable Elliot Wave fashion, the virus and tariffs are just extraneous noise distracting from reality.

Most readers will reject these warnings of a looming bear market. The wave two rebound has been strong, re-enforcing the buy and hold mentality. The reality of the bear market will only dawn after wave three takes out the previous low of 18,214. Financial advisors will cheerfully recommend buying all the way to 18,214 claiming these are once in a lifetime bargains. The carnage in the energy markets is a precursor of what lies ahead for other sectors.

Producers have begun shutting in oil wells. There may be more storage than first thought. The oil price has rebounded to $18 (from negative $30) but that is not a price which is economically feasible for the industry. For those interested more detail and frequent updates are at

https://professorelam.typepad.com/markets/

See the original post here:
ELAM: Depends on What You think is Normal - Odessa American

Predictions, Prophets, and Restarting Your Business – Harvard Business School Working Knowledge

Predictions are risky, especially about the future, according to a popular expression. Still, business is inescapably about the futurethats what managers decisions are about. In the current crisis, we have daily grand predictions about new normals, and managers must restart their business and make decisions based on assumptions about the future.

The problem: Most of these prophecies about what is to come are basically straight-line extrapolations of a few weeks of data or sermons about what that prophet believes should happen. These wont be of much use to business leaders making cold, hard decisions about returning to the market.

Heres a common prediction: Social distancing forces people to do more buying online and communicating through social media, thus accelerating a permanent, big shift after the crisis to more ecommerce and virtual models. The evidence, however, is not so clear-cut.

In the first month of social distancing in the United States, online sales at Walmart and Target indeed surged by double digits compared with the year-earlier periodand so did in-store sales as well as sales of jigsaw puzzles and walkie-talkies. Its not clear what we learn from panic buying. So lets look at what was happening online before the virus of 2020.

Ecommerce has been part of the internet for 30 years. Books.com was selling online while Jeff Bezos was still working on Wall Street. After decades of tax-free sales, ecommerce was just 11.4 percent of US retail sales in 2019, according to the Department of Commerce. Meanwhile, social media usage on the major platforms had been essentially flat over the previous four years. (In fact, social media usage had declined among Americans less than 35 years old, and the only age group using Facebook more were people 55 or older, according to Edison Research.) As a marketing medium, online channels were cluttered and increasingly viewed with suspicion as media attention to foreign hackers raised awareness of cybersecurity issues.

Combined with the ability to block ads, the growing costs of acquiring customers online, the experience of Zoombombing, and controls on consumer data by EU regulators and others, its unclear how much buying and selling will be done online in the future.

So, whats a manager to do given the uncertainty of both predictions and prophets? Heres some advice to CEOs, CFOs, sales managers, and others who allocate the major resources in most firms. Whatever else you do in thinking about the future of your business, pay attention to the following:

The crisis demonstrates, painfully, the importance of cash. In his famous essay "The Yield from Money Held, the economist William Hutt described cash in your pocket or on the balance sheet as a fire engine when there are no fires. Or, as the song in the musical Oliver puts it: Money in the bank, thats what counts / Money in the bank in large amounts. The selling cycle is usually the biggest driver of cash out and cash in: Accounts payable accrue during selling, and accounts receivable are mainly determined in most firms by whats sold at what price and how fast.

In surviving and recovering from a crisis, increasing close rates, the efficiency of a sales model, and its segment focus are strategic issues, not only sales management tasks. Consider: when commerce resumes, whats the impact on your business from shortening selling cycles and accelerating time-to-cash by one week, two weeks, or more? If you dont know, find out now and work to shorten ramp-up time and increase productivity in your sales team after the crisis.

A problem with megatrend predictions is that, even if they turn out to be generally accurate, theyre not managerially useful. Companies sell to customers, not to a trend, and priorities must be set. Make sure that key customers are aware of supply disruptions or other problems. Do not assume that, in a global pandemic, everyone knows. They are absorbed with their own business issues.

Big accounts drive a disproportionate amount of a companys revenue (the 80/20 rule), and reliance on large customers has grown. Publicly traded US companies must disclose any customers that account for more than 10 percent of their revenue. A study of this data found that, in many industries, these buyers represented 20 percent to 25 percent of sales by the second decade of the twenty-first century, up from less than 10 percent two decades earlier. In other words, even before the pandemic, there was a big change in the customer portfolio of many companies.

Your salespeople must send consistent messages, not ad hoc responses. Dont leave this aspect of crisis management to emails about your commitment to customers, or telling salespeople to stay focused and take care of customers. Thats an invitation for fragmented responses, multiple promises, and longer-term costs to the brand and strategy. Managers must manage. In an extended disruption, it may even be in your long-term interest to find supply alternatives for a customer. Few quota-carrying salespeople will or can do that.

Important data is account profitability, your cost-to-serve customer A versus customer B. My experience on boards of directors and in work with leadership teams is that vision discussions are fun, and quarterly financial results are tracked closely. But despite much talk about big data, the customer information required to survive and then restart the business after a major downturn is often lacking.

One reason is that, in many firms, the relevant information is effectively the property of an individual rep, not the company. That makes it difficult to set account and segment priorities. Use the current frightening hiatus from business-as-usual to get this data and establish a process for keeping that front-line information flowing and timely. Otherwise, customer focus will remain a perennial slogan, not an organizational reality. Oversight over this activity is as important as it is in the capital budgeting process, innovative ideas in the virtual crisis war room, and the speech about resilience.

Its unclear whether social distancing has made people more eager to transact online, or whether it simply demonstrates the limitations of communicating virtually. The historian William McNeill documented in Plagues and Peoples how epidemics were a recurring norm, not the exception, for millennia. Meanwhile, buying and selling have been social as well as economic transactions since the Greek Agora, the Grand Bazaar in Istanbul, malls in the twentieth century, and through decades of internet use. Will months-long confinement change that deep-rooted human behavior?

Finally, for whats its worth, here is my prediction: The coronavirus will eventually abate and few will remember the many false predictions made during a crisisbut you will still have to live with your business decisions.

Do your best to separate hype and headlines from market-driven data and options. When much of the world economy is shut for weeks and possibly months, cascading bankruptcies and higher debt loads probably mean a tightening of purchasing decisions and capital expenditures in many consumer and B2B markets. Your business-development efforts will need to be more focused and productive after the crisis. Start now and take care of these customer basics before you possibly follow a prophet into the wilderness.

Frank V. Cespedes is a Senior Lecturer in the Entrepreneurial Management Unit at Harvard Business School and author of Aligning Strategy and Sales.

[Image: AndreyPopov]

Read more here:
Predictions, Prophets, and Restarting Your Business - Harvard Business School Working Knowledge

Sunlight exposure and its role in skin-gut axis – NutraIngredients-usa.com

In December, we reported on an intervention study in Canada by Bosman et al. which investigated whether repeated exposure of the skin to UVB light would alter the gut microbiota composition of healthy female volunteers.

Bosman et al. presented evidence that skin exposure to narrowband UVB light modulated the gut microbiome of a specific human cohort. This study presented an increase of biodiversity, Firmicutes and Proteobacteria, and a decrease of Bacteroidetes.

In the present study, scientists at the Laboratory of Molecular Genetics of Microorganisms, Oswaldo Cruz Institute, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, used that research to compare it to their own data on Yanomami, an indigenous population in the Amazon. The researchers identified similarities in the gut microbiome of the two studies. Both presented a high abundance of Proteobacteria, which had been observed as a unique feature in the Yanomami gut microbiome, and based on Bosman et al. study, could be associated with their natural sunlight exposure.

The Canadian study reported that human exposure to UVB light could impact the human gut microbiome modulating diverse bacterial taxa. This conclusion was reached after they analyzed a controlled cohort composed of healthy Caucasian females from Vancouver, Canada. The gut microbiome of this cohort was analyzed before and after repeated skin exposure to a Narrow Band UVB light using a phototherapy device.

The scientists in Brazil note that,People living in this city located at 49N latitude are often unexposed to natural UVB light for up to 6 months of the year. Under these circumstances, individuals are unable to produce significant vitamin D3 in their skin, resulting in its reduction in the serum level, with impact to their health...Human exposition to UVB light is a direct consequence of the latitude, altitude, weather, time of day and season of the year and, indirectly, of human behavior and lifestyles.

The Yanomami inhabit a vast area in the Amazon Region, located around the equator in distinct altitudes. This population is naturally exposed to a high incidence of sunlight and ultraviolet radiation. Additionally, this region also lacks air pollution, a factor that blocks the UVB light from sunlight. The authors also note that for the most part, the group does not wear clothing, sunscreen or any type of protection from sun exposure.

The scientists found similarities in the gut microbiome makeup in the Bosman et al.s group artificially exposed to UVB light and the Amazonian hunter-gatherer Yanomami. Moreover, the UVB light exposure seems to modulate and explain some Yanomami gut microbiome features.

In the Canadian study, the gut microbiome of the cohort presented a higher alpha diversity after the exposition to UVB light, as well as an increase in the relative abundance of Firmicutes and Proteobacteria and a decrease in the relative abundance of Bacteroidetes. When looking at Firmicutes phylum, it was noted that the abundance of Lachnospiraceae, Ruminococcus and Clostridiaeae families was significantly enriched. Additionally, some individuals experienced a Verrucomicrobia increase.

Several of these taxonomic features were also observed in the Yanomami and other hunter-gatherers. The microbiome of these traditional groups has been characterized by higher biodiversity and higher Firmicutes to Bacteroidetes ratio contrasting with urban groups. In Bosman et al.s study, Firmicutes increased after UVB exposure with the enrichment of Lachnospiraceae, Ruminococcus and Clostridiaeae families. These Firmicutes families were also abundant in the traditional groups, and abundance of other Firmicutes families/genera was also observed. In fact, genera from Firmicutes phylum are biomarkers of Amazonian traditional groups: Roseburia and Enterococcus (Yanomami/Brazil), Streptococcus and Anaerostipes (Yanomami/Venezuela), Eubacterium and Lachnoclostridium (Matses), Intestinomonas, Flavonicater and Magasphaera (Tunapuco). Therefore, we concluded that Firmicutes taxa could be related to the lifestyle, diet, and environment among human groups.

Another observation in the Canadian study is the fact that Proteobacteria was enriched after UVB light exposure. A high abundance of Proteobacteria was a unique feature within the Yanomami gut microbiome when compared to other traditional groups and urban groups. The authors say this aspect is unexplainable, noting that it seems that the high exposure to UVB light by the Yanomami due to the environment and their particular lifestyle may be related to the enrichment of Proteobacteria. The Brazilian researchers add that the genus Akkermansia from Verrucomicrobia phylum is a Yanomami biomarker and this phylum also presented an increase in few individuals from Bosman et al. after artificial UVB exposure.

Altogether, the association of UVB light with specific microbiome taxonomic profiles observed in distinct populations leads us to consider that UVB light/sunlight is a tangible factor that should be considered as a modulator of the gut microbiome.

The authors conclude that the environment represents one of the main forces associated with the inter-person microbiome variability over the host genetics and other factors, further studies on gut microbiome should take into consideration sunlight exposure as well as latitude in-depth.

Therefore, a broad exploration of the relationship between human beings, the microbiome and the environment fills gaps in knowledge that can lead us to understand the relationship between the preservation of health and the development of diseases.

Sources:Gut Microbes

2020; DOI: 10.1080/19490976.2020.1745044

Skin exposure to sunlight: a factor modulating the human gut microbiome composition

Authors: L. Conteville et al.

Frontiers in Microbiology

2019; 10:2410. DOI:10.3389/fmicb.2019.02410

Skin exposure to narrow band ultraviolet (UVB) light modulates the human intestinal microbiome

Authors: E. Bosman et al.

Originally posted here:
Sunlight exposure and its role in skin-gut axis - NutraIngredients-usa.com