Category Archives: Human Behavior

Evaluating Growth And Value Stocks In The Era Of COVID-19 – Seeking Alpha

How are growth and value managers considering risks and opportunities amid todays highly uncertain environment? We recently sat down with two of our hire rank managers, one from each side of the coin, to discuss.

Barry Dargan is the CEO and portfolio manager at Intermede Investment Partners, a global equity investment management firm based in London. In his day-to-day role, he looks for high-quality, long-term compounding growth stocks.

Patrick Kaser is a managing director and portfolio manager at Brandywine Global Investment Management. He concentrates on traditional value investingsearching for good companies with good cash flows that are undervalued, relative to his teams assessment of fair value.

Both Dargan and Kaser are preferred managers in Russell Investments U.S. and global equity portfolios, and were guests at our recent institutional client webinar. Here are their thoughts on growth versus value.

As a growth manager, Dargans primary mandate is to find long-term, compounding quality growth companies with strong franchises and excellent management that can deliver on earnings growth, time and time again. Essentially, he looks for growth names that he believes will outperform over the long term.

Being a growth manager is very much about being a long-term investor, Dargan said. With this in mind, he shared the results from the past 30 years to see how capital-intensive companiesthose that require large amounts of investmentshave performed in markets when compared to companies with low capital intensity. The verdict?

Low capital-intensity companiessuch as many of those within the technology, healthcare and consumer staples sectorshave significantly outperformed capital-intensive companies in the industrials, materials, telecommunications and utilities sectors. Despite some periods of weakness following the technology, media and telecom bubble of the late 1990s and the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2008, cumulative performance of low capital-intensity companies has been strongand even acceleratedover the past ten years.

These are the type of companies that Dargan, as a growth manager, is looking to find in the era of coronavirus. The inefficiency that were trying to exploit here is the fact that the stock market doesn't give full credit for the power of compounding to companies over the long haul, he remarked.

As a value investor, I often joke that I'm one of those people standing alone in the corner at a partythe person no one wants to talk to, Brandywines Patrick Kaser said. Today, amid the severe economic downturn brought about by COVID-19, this probably holds true more than ever, he added.

And yet, there may be no better time than now to start thinking about value stocks, Kaser said. Why? At its core, value investing anchors around exploiting short-term human behavior. Essentially, investors place too much of a focus on short-term outlooks, he said.

People often anchor themselves far too much to negative or positive news in the short-term, Kaser explained, and its this very bias that creates opportunity for value managers. Over the past month, for instance, negative short-term sentiment has led to very cheap valuations for some stocks, he said.

Like growth investors, though, value investors also need to take a multi-year approach, as they dont necessarily know which sectors, industries or parts of the market might fall out of favor. Generally speaking, you need to be willing to cast a pretty wide net, often over a number of years. Patience is required to exploit time-horizon biases, Kaser said.

Kaser sees two main opportunities for value investors to exploit amid todays turbulent environment. The first is the spread between value stocks and low-volatility stocks (such as utilities and consumer staples). Why? This spread is now twice what it was during the tech bubble of the early 2000s, which Kaiser said is largely unprecedented.

The second opportunity centers around the relative valuation of growth stocks versus value stocks. The price-to-earnings spread between the two has now widened to levels in line with those seen during the tech bubble. This is because many investors are paying a premium for growth stocks right now, as they fear that value names wont experience much growth, Kaser explained.

Intermedes Barry Dargan believes that changes brought about in the past two decades will continue to help higher quality, long-term growth companies deliverdespite the coronavirus pandemic.

There's been an enormous amount of consolidation in the stock market among companies within industries over the last 30 years or so, particularly over the last 20 years. Essentially, companies have been buying each other. The net effect of this is that the top four companies in most global industries now have, on average, 30% of the total industry revenuecompared to roughly 20% in the past, he explained. Ultimately, said Dargan, this concentration has led to rising returns and an increase in profitability for companies.

A lot of these companieswhich Dargan refers to as super companiesbenefit massively from incremental users, which can be acquired at no cost. Companies like Facebook (NASDAQ:FB), Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL), Mastercard (NYSE:MA) and Visa (NYSE:V) have this network effect about them, which leads to extremely high returnsand makes it extremely difficult to compete against them, he explained. Dargan believes that while the pandemic may cause these companies to be eclipsed a little bit in the short term by others, taking a long-term view argues for their continued strong performance.

Several large tech companies and certain industries will benefit immensely from the increasing reliance on technology that this pandemic has brought aboutespecially in the long term, he said.

When it comes to timing, Brandywines Patrick Kaser says that, historically, value stocks tend to be explosive coming out of a recession, while typically faring much weaker heading into a recession.

The recent market environment has been particularly unique, he said, because value hasby some measuresunderperformed for the last 14 years. By and large, its been more than a decade of pain for value stocks, which is an extensive length of time, relative to any other period in U.S. history, Kaser said. Not surprisingly, the pandemic has only made things worse, he added.

The valuation dispersion between the cheapest stocks and the average stock is now at a level of disparity seen only twice since 1926. This brings about the question: Can growth really continue to outperform from here on out? Can the spread between the two styles continue to widen?

History argues that value can make up a lot of ground very quickly once the spread gets too wide, Kaser said. He refers to these periods in which value stocks explode in price as violent snapbacks.

These snapbacks are triggered by investor behavior, he said. Theres a behavioral element in people that makes us want to wait until the future looks more secureuntil the economic recovery is actually visible, Kaser explained. Value investing can exploit this, he said, by assessing the fundamentals of companies that have been beaten up by the downturn. Once we do the background work, as value investors we might say, No, its not too early to start buying. Now is the time to get on board.

A constant pattern Kaser sees is that the best opportunities exist when theyre quite uncomfortable to most people. It's at these market bottomswhen many are thinking about sellingthat value investors step in, he said. This is particularly true in todays times, Kaser noted.

The opportunity in value comes with a lot of discomfort in the short-term, but we know thisand we stick to it, he concluded. As value investors, we believe you need to grab the opportunities as theyre created.

Both Dargan and Kaser agree that the pandemic is likely to have a significant impact on both value and growth stocks in the short- and long-term. This is why we at Russell Investments believe its crucial in todays environment to maintain diversified exposures, and to embed opportunities that are expected to pay off over different time horizons.

As both Dargan and Kaser have shared, we think theres room to add value by identifying high-quality, long-term compounders, as well as by selecting contrarian opportunities where we believe discounted valuations outweigh perceived risks. While none of us could have forecasted 2020 to turn out the way it has, we think that the case for leaning into value has become even more compelling.

Ultimately, regardless of style, we believe that partnering with experienced investors during this time of difficulty is more important than ever. Time-tested investment processes that seek to minimalize the behavioral biases we are all prone to, while steadfastly maintaining focus and discipline, may be paramount to weathering todays rough seas. We stand ready to assist.

Disclosures

Nothing contained in this material is intended to constitute legal, tax, securities, or investment advice, nor an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, nor a solicitation of any type. The general information contained on this website should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from a licensed professional. Persons outside the United States may find more information about products and services available within their jurisdictions by going to Russell Investments' Worldwide site.

Russell Investments is committed to ensuring digital accessibility for people with disabilities. We are continually improving the user experience for everyone, and applying the relevant accessibility standards.

Russell Investments ownership is composed of a majority stake held by funds managed by TA Associates with minority stakes held by funds managed by Reverence Capital Partners and Russell Investments management.

Frank Russell Company is the owner of the Russell trademarks contained in this material and all trademark rights related to the Russell trademarks, which the members of the Russell Investments group of companies are permitted to use under license from Frank Russell Company. The members of the Russell Investments group of companies are not affiliated in any manner with Frank Russell Company or any entity operating under the FTSE RUSSELL brand.

Original post

Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.

More here:
Evaluating Growth And Value Stocks In The Era Of COVID-19 - Seeking Alpha

Coronavirus Will Pave The Way To A New Healthcare Delivery Model (We Hope) – Forbes

LOS ANGELES, CA - MAY 13: Workers wearing personal protective equipment (PPE) perform drive-up ... [+] COVID-19 testing administered from a car at Mend Urgent Care testing site for the novel coronavirus at the Westfield Fashion Square on May 13, 2020 in the Sherman Oaks neighborhood of Los Angeles, California. A nasopharyngeal swab test kit is utilized at this COVID-19 testing center to determine the viral load and virus count of a patient. Los Angeles County 'safer at home' orders have been extended through August to stop the spread of coronavirus during the worldwide pandemic. (Photo by Kevin Winter/ Getty Images)

Pictures from Italy likely drove many decisions made in the US about how to handle the coronavirus outbreak. Particularly in Lombardy where the outbreak was heaviest initially, Italians descended on local hospitals, quickly overwhelming them, and concentrating the highly contagious virus in these facilities. Subsequent reports from officials in the Italian Health Ministry highlighted a problem in their healthcare system. Italy lacks a robust primary healthcare infrastructure, all but ensuring that a mass influx of acutely ill patients desperately seeking care will have few options but overcrowded and inundated hospitals.

While the US healthcare system has a stronger primary care focus than seen in Italy, the tendency to invest in specialty services with their higher associated costs has driven most of the investment in healthcare services over the last 15 years in this country. It is largely the reason that US healthcare costs are the highest in the world without the commensurate value in terms of key outcome measures like life expectancy. As a result, we have had increasing rates of diabetes, heart disease, obesity and respiratory illnesses, points covered in recent Forbes posts. While we have certainly underinvested in primary care in the US, we have had a primary care network and for many, the primary care physician has been the gatekeeper for access to specialty services. Trips to the emergency room for those of us with insurance are associated with high costs, and urgent care centers have sprung up throughout the country as a mechanism to shield the ER from inappropriate usage. A trip to the hospital as a first line of defense in the US is less likely than might have been true in years past, and certainly presents a picture different from the one seen in Italy.

But it was the frightening pictures of healthcare in Italy that seems to have shaped the US response to COVID-19. No city wanted to have its healthcare system overrun with patients lined up on gurneys in hallways while shell-shocked clinicians tried to navigate through the chaos. While the US couldnt get sufficient supplies to the front lines (e.g. personal protective equipment), the draconian measures taken to blunt the projected spread of the novel coronavirus were intended to protect the very same hospitals that a month later have been laying off staff. Mandatory stay at home and shelter in place orders were issued to stem the tide of the virus, but most importantly, to enable healthcare systems in hard hit areas like New York City to keep from becoming overwhelmed.

So far, most healthcare systems have not been overwhelmed; indeed, many are confronted with empty emergency rooms and empty beds. Some patients with serious, non-COVID-19 illness have apparently not sought medical care when they should have. The fact that the onslaught did not happen is touted by some as proof that the measures local governments have taken to protect their citizens worked. Yet as the nation watches, a decade of economic gains are evaporating, businesses large and small are being brought to their knees, and even healthcare delivery organizations are closing their doors. The despair that is griping the nation is palpable as people shelter in place from an unseen virus and see their ability to provide for themselves and their families evaporating in front of their eyes. Isnt it time to ask whether the success was worth the price?

In the natural world, weaker members of the species are ill-prepared to withstand the onslaught of disease, extreme weather, and other disasters. In the wild, the ill and the young fall victim to predators. It is the stronger members that survive. This dynamic plays out in business as well. Those businesses with weak balance sheets going into a crisis like we are experiencing are ill-prepared to withstand the challenges posed by a pandemic. Hospitals with limited days cash on hand before coronavirus hit are unlikely to survive. A town needs a bank and some healthcare services to survive. Part of that service needs to be geared toward supporting individual responsibility for well-being, and that must include the prevention, diagnosis, and management of chronic disease. Chronic disease increases the likelihood of more serious outcomes associated with COVID-19 in the event one is infected. But the incentives underpinning the current healthcare system are not aligned to systematically address chronic illness.

A fundamental tenet of human behavior is that people do what they are incented to do; they stop or avoid doing the things they are not incented to do. Understanding this tenet is the reason I predicted that DRGs would not bend the cost curve in the mid-1980s, despite CMSs good intentions. Until there is transparency in cost/quality, as well as payment tied to outcomes that matter, we are unlikely to see the fundamental changes we need better health outcomes and lower total cost of care.

Today, the path to a value-based healthcare delivery model is being challenged as unrealistic due to COVID-19. Many systems which have taken on some form of risk are attempting to renegotiate with payers to protect themselves against the impact of the pandemic. No one modeled COVID-19 into their forecasts. Healthcare systems that bet they could lower the cost of care and/or improve outcomes will have a hard time winning that bet in the face of the pandemic. But the problem is not taking on risk but a legacy of highly bureaucratic programs built on a traditional fee for service model. Ironically, those that have assumed more of a capitation model in which they receive a PMPM reimbursement are faring better than those who have dipped their toes in the risk pool as they hold onto the tried and true procedure based fee-for-service model. The experience of coronavirus should be a wake-up call that the future of healthcare and the well-being of the nation depend on our willingness to invest in a new model. What we need is a model that engages both the healthcare system and the patient/consumer in coordinated action over time to achieve better health outcomes at lower total cost of care.

Originally posted here:
Coronavirus Will Pave The Way To A New Healthcare Delivery Model (We Hope) - Forbes

Study Finds Low Proportion of Individuals With Autism Receive Recommended Genetic Tests – Technology Networks

A study analyzing data from the Rhode Island Consortium for Autism Research and Treatment (RI-CART) found that only 3% of individuals diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder reported having fully received clinical genetic tests recommended by medical professional societies.

The results bring to light a dissonance between professional recommendations and clinical practice, the researchers behind the study say.

Autism spectrum disorder is one of the most strongly genetic neuropsychiatric conditions. Medical professional societies -- such as the American Academy of Pediatrics, the American College of Medical Genetics, and the American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry -- recommend offering chromosomal microarray testing and Fragile X testing for patients diagnosed with autism. The tests can identify or rule out genetic abnormalities that could have implications in a patient's diagnosis and clinical care.

The study, published in JAMA Psychiatry on May 13, analyzed 1,280 participants with autism spectrum disorder based on medical records and self-reported data from the time period of April 2013 to April 2019. The participants are enrolled with RI-CART, a public-private-academic collaborative focused on advancing research and building community among individuals with autism spectrum disorder in Rhode Island and their families. The study's goal was to determine the current state of clinical genetic testing for autism in this cohort, said authors Dr. Daniel Moreno De Luca and Dr. Eric Morrow.

Of the 1,280 participants, 16.5% reported having received some genetic testing, with 13.2% stating they received Fragile X testing, and 4.5% reporting that they received chromosomal microarray testing. However, only 3% of participants reported having received both recommended tests.

"I had the impression that the frequency of recommended genetic testing was not going to be very high based on the patients I encounter clinically, but 3% is actually lower than I thought it would be," said Moreno De Luca, an assistant professor of psychiatry and human behavior at Brown University, who is affiliated with the Carney Institute for Brain Science, and a psychiatrist at Bradley Hospital. "A higher proportion has had either test individually, and the proportion of people with chromosomal microarray is higher in recent calendar years, which is a hopeful glimpse for people who are being diagnosed recently and who may be younger. However, this underscores that there is still significant work to be done, especially for adults on the autism spectrum."

In the study, researchers examine possible reasons for the gap between clinical practice and the recommendations from medical professional societies. Age was among the most prominent, as people with autism in older age groups are less likely to be tested. According to the study, adults with autism were generally unlikely to have undergone the clinical genetic tests.

The researchers also found that patients diagnosed by subspecialist pediatricians were more likely to report genetic testing as compared to those diagnosed by psychiatrists and psychologists.

"This paper is really about how you implement clinical genetic tests in the clinical diagnostic setting," said Dr. Eric Morrow, an associate professor of biology at Brown and director of the Developmental Disorders Genetics Research Program at Bradley Hospital. "There is rapid progress from research, and then there's the doctor and health systems that need to translate that to clinical practice. The clinics need to set up more support to educate clinicians and families about genetics and autism. Generally, this is done by genetic counselors who may be rare in autism clinics."

Furthermore, the researchers found that nearly 10% of participants who received an autism spectrum disorder diagnosis between 2010 and 2014 reported receiving chromosomal microarray testing, one of the more modern genetic tests. Compared to those in the study who received a diagnosis in years before 2010, this showed an increase in self-reported testing.

"There is a more hopeful message that conveys that the success in implementing clinical genetic testing is increasing," said Morrow, who is affiliated with the Carney Institute, co-leads the Autism Initiative at the Hassenfeld Child Health Innovation Institute at Brown and directs the University's Center for Translational Neuroscience.

Based at Bradley Hospital in East Providence, the team behind RI-CART represents a partnership between researchers at Brown, Bradley Hospital and Women and Infants that also involves nearly every site of service for people on the autism spectrum and their families in Rhode Island.

As a next step, the researchers behind the JAMA Psychiatry study are conducting a separate study to understand in greater detail the factors that could be influencing the rate of genetic testing.

"Challenges can be found on the patient and families side, on the physician side, and on the systemic side with institutional requirements and many other potential barriers," said Moreno De Luca. "We want to address each of those factors independently."

Reference:Moreno-De-Luca, D., Kavanaugh, B. C., Best, C. R., Sheinkopf, S. J., Phornphutkul, C., & Morrow, E. M. (2020). Clinical Genetic Testing in Autism Spectrum Disorder in a Large Community-Based Population Sample. JAMA Psychiatry. doi:10.1001/jamapsychiatry.2020.0950

This article has been republished from the following materials. Note: material may have been edited for length and content. For further information, please contact the cited source.

Go here to read the rest:
Study Finds Low Proportion of Individuals With Autism Receive Recommended Genetic Tests - Technology Networks

The Code and the Key – National Review

(Enisaksoy/Getty Images)Lessons from human nature about writing, politics, and Donald Trump

I worked one summer as a kitchen boy in a Wisconsin summer camp. It was one of those jobs from which you fall down at night near too tired to sleep. A previous occupant of my bunk had left behind a copy of Atlas Shrugged. So I spent the summer, between work and sleep, reading the perfect companion for my teenage summer.

I dont care for short stories. I prefer the heft of the doorstop book, reassuring me that I can immerse myself in the fantasy for a good long time. Yes, yes, I think. Thank you. Take me. Anywhere but here . . .

My companion for the lockdown is The Codebreakers: The Comprehensive History of Secret Communication from Ancient Times to the Internet, written by David Kahn in 1967 and updated by him in 1996. One thousand pages so interesting that my mind will not reject them even though they are informative.

My new novel, not yet released, is Forty Years at Anstett, a fictional account of one mans life at a New England prep school. In it, a young man returns from imprisonment in Japan during the RussoJapanese War. The fellow applies for the job of instructor of languages. He has no academic credentials, but a very practical one: He was forced, in prison, to learn Japanese, Russian, Chinese, and, more important, how to learn languages. He challenges the Head (my protagonist) to point out the dullest lad in the school, to name a language, to leave the applicant alone with the boy for an afternoon, and then to assess his progress in the new tongue.

Well, the Head says, Latin or Greek. Id say Latin; its simpler as it shares our alphabet. No, the applicant says, its simpler to teach Greek. A new alphabet is a code. What twelve-year-old boy has ever been able to resist a code?

Not I, certainly. It seems Ive spent my professional life fashioning them and solving them, and have found the process commutative, which is to say, the study of one is the study of the otherit works in both directions.

Heres what I mean. Raymond Chandler wrote, in his essay The Simple Art of Murder (1939), that it is near impossible to craft a good murder mystery, as it requires two otherwise unconnected skills: the ability to write beautifully and the ability to fashion a code.

He is near right in his observation. The two skillswhile not mutually exclusive per seare unlikely to be found fully developed in any practitioner, because to achieve excellence, he or she would have to devote all energy to one or the other. I know of no great contemporary instrumentalist who is also a great composer.

The intersection of cryptography and literary merit is discoverable, though, in one very particular craft, and it is my own: writing drama.

For the drama has much in common with the detective novel. The clues in each must, scene by scene, be displayed to the reader in such a way that their importance will become both clear and acceptable only when the protagonist (and, so, the reader) has finally arranged them, correctly, at the works conclusion. If a clue is omitted, the writer is cheating; if it is too apparent, he is a hack.

Oh, yes, it was there all the time is the revelation capping not only the story of Sam Spade and his Maltese falcon, but that of Oedipus.

Ive always understood my job as a playwright as crafting the code. I came to this understanding through watching the audience.

In the various storefront theaters of my youth, I was offered the opportunity to make a living superior to mine as a cabdriver, if and as I could please the audience: not the critics, not the universities, but the paying audience.

I could write sufficiently well to keep em in their seats, but I was not going to get out of the Yellow Cab Company, I saw, unless I could do something additionally, which was (and is) to lead the audience unconsciously, at the plays end, to a revelation, which is to say, to a thrill.

Most plays, and all dramas, conclude, Well, I suppose life is just like that. This is sufficient to get the audience back into their cars, but by half the drive home, the play is forgotten. It may have diverted, but it did not thrill. This is to say, it did not deliver anything that could not have been foreseen. One says of such plays, They came in humming the plot.

Well, I wanted to trade the delights of the Yellow Cab Company for those of Broadway. So I sat down to the study of a code, and the code was, and is, human behavior.

I now learn from David Kahn the same lesson I saw in the storefronts: The cipher cannot be resolved without possession of the key.

Human behavior is fairly clear. One did or did not do or say this or that; one keeps marrying the wrong guy, or forgetting ones car keys, Aunt Mae always arrives late, and so on.

The attempt to interpret these actions, to determine the underlying assumptions, and, so, possibly, arrange them for the understanding of the group, the family, or the individual, is a search for a unifying key.

Psychoanalysis is, essentially, cryptanalysis. It is the attempt to find the key that will render intelligible, that is, arranged into a cause-and-effect progression, a string of various otherwise puzzling actions. It is fairly useless as a clinical tool (for, finally, the solution is as moot as is, in most cases, the complaint). But it is a handy theoretical tool, for a dramatist/cryptanalyst. He may walk the cat both backward and forward, discovering, in his own, unconscious creative process, the hidden key, which resolves his disparate perceptions and creations (an event, a line, an interchange) into that whole that may at the plays end be revealed as a progressionthat is, as a surprise.

This key is called the plot.

The practical codebreaker differs from the psychoanalyst in this: It is not his job to evaluate and act on the decoded information, but only to strip away the code.

Applied to psychoanalysis: Rather than asking What was the repressed trauma to which cause I can assign these symptoms? we may ask What was the process that caused that particular trauma (plaintext) to be so encrypted; that is, what is the key?

For, even if the hidden trauma is correctly determined, this can mean nothing more than that it has been identified in a way sufficiently satisfying to doctor and patient as to be acceptable; and the very fact that the patient accepts a psychoanalytic solution (which, again, is merely suppositional) might argue for its falsity. Diagnostically, he leaves the analysis not having had his life changed by revelation but gratified in his assessment not only of his own reasoning but of his courage in being able to accept a (putatively) new idea.

Similarly, modern drama and entertainment, and the so-called news media that flog it, present as a cure for (inescapable) human anxiety various solutions that, in their inaccuracy and inconclusivity, induce the individual to commit to further, more-drastic (which is to say, more-macabre and more-bizarre) restatements of the original diagnosis: E.g., you are not anxious, you are legitimately appalled, and frightened, as who would not be, as the world is ending (burning up, poisoned, overpopulated, run by Monsters).

The committed liberal, leftist, or analysand is like the government establishments that have devoted so much time, energy, and treasure to the creation of a code that no evidence could convince them that it has been broken and so must be replaced.

Drama carries an acceptable, but not a transformative, solution. Only tragedy has the power to transform, its revelation shocking the hero/sufferer (who is only the representative of the audience) into an absolutely new life. This life, however different from or lesser than the previous one, has this great benefit: It can be led truthfully, without either shame or anxiety, as one no longer fears discovery. The neurotic individual or organization fears not that its code may be broken but the knowledge that it already has been.

A mass movement coalesces around previously unconnected forcesthose that, absent a catalyst, cannot combine to any effect. Its formation will be predated to account for a supernatural beginning, but this merely raises the question Why now?

Islam, Christianity, and, in the 20th century, Marxism and Fascism emerge and proliferate exponentially, creating a new polity, spreading first through the joy of novelty, then through the herd instinct, and, finally, through force directed at the unconvinced.

A doctrine that cannot be proved, and whose only benefit is membership in a herd of the similarly professing, must (like a neurosis) be vehemently defended, as its refutation would threaten the individual not only with expulsion but with shame at his complicity, which is to say, with self-knowledge. But this, again, just raises the question: Why does this or that belief or delusion emerge and metastasize at a particular time? What is the relationship between the individual and the mass movement?

Tolstoy asks the question in the epilogue to War and Peace. He observes that 5 million Frenchmen didnt march into Russia just because Napoleon told them to. There is some relationship between his and their folly, but the relationship is unclear. The question, he tells us, is What is power? For, if they did not march because of his orders (a proposition that is, on reflection, absurd), why did they march?

Why did the young of my post-war generation embrace the various doctrines of free love, anti-Americanism, dissent, and mass movement, which, here as everywhere in the West, have matured as leftism, its various doctrines as absurd and obviously destructive as Napoleons (or Hitlers) invasion of Russia: open borders, free health care and education, and a universal salary not only for our citizens but (given open borders) for the entire world.

Ive been puzzled for a while by the absence in this virulent movement not only of a handy name (for leftism defines the thing only in relation to its opposite) but of a leader.

In the upcoming election, the Left has proposed, and its adherents have accepted, no candidate onto whom can be grafted even the most basic and most provisional attributes of charisma, wisdom, or record (however factitious) of accomplishment.

Why has the Left, intent on destroying the West, put forth no leader, and why has no leader put himself forward to fill the vacuum of power? What does the Left have, in place of a Marx, a Hitler, a Lenin, or, indeed, a Roosevelt or a Churchill? One who could state and embody its principles and thereby unify a country or a party? Perhaps the Lefts inability to propose a leaderand, so, a coherent (even if loathsome) visionis not a problem but a solution.

The question, then, is: To what problem?

For four years Ive found the massteria (Professor Harold Hill, The Music Man, 1957) around Trump healthy, as energy directed thus was unavailable for the Lefts beatification of a new leader (a fhrer). How fortunate for the country, I thought.

The national emergency has given me some leisure to think and consider; it was awarded by a virus. My question of the Virus is Why now?

The virus could not have spread globally without universal air travel, the national wealth that created such travel, and the disposable incomes that allowed individuals to take trips.

The Black Death reached Europe through rats on merchant ships from the Orient, the Spanish flu was spread here largely by servicemen returning from Europe, and so on, and so on.

Each, perhaps, could be seen as occurring through, or spreading because of, some stage of progression or, say, maturity, in the economy, or, to flirt with eschatology, in the Progress of the World.

The individual lifespan lengthens, and now the elderly are faced with diseases unknown to or rare among grandparents who would have been dead at a similar age.

Traffic congestion, attendant pollution, anxiety, and so on are the result of urban success. The highways take the mass of the newly solvent to the suburbs, the commutes become intolerable, and the old cities die, or exist (all the old capitals of commerce) as tourist attractions, or amusement parks, with the super-wealthy maintaining their skyboxes above the entertainment, as in The Masque of the Red Death.

The liberal, elite cities and states raise taxes, because they must, as their tax base disappears. As the services disintegrate, the rich follow the middle class out and leave the cities to the homeless, their ranks engorged by the aliens attracted to the notion of something-for-nothing (as who is not?), which is to say the Garden of Eden before the Fall.

There it is, before our eyes, but those who call attention, like our friend Laocon, are swept back into the sea, and the wooden horse, inside which the voices of enemy soldiers are heard, is dragged inside the city.

The unabated loathing of Trump must be considered a delusion, for how could one man be responsible not only for treason, collusion, malversation, and other crimes that, though they might be practiced individually, would, in their conjoined execution, each cancel the efficacy of the other (e.g., armed robbery and embezzlement)? Consider that in addition to this endless litany of his human corruptions, he is, coincidentally, indicted as responsible for the weather and the spread (if not the inauguration) of a global pandemic.

A comparison of Trump Psychosis with adoration of Hitlerthough perhaps appropriate mechanically, that is, in terms of power exerted on the mobis inexact in terms of utility. For the apotheosis of Hitler united the Germans behind a shared vision; he personified, and gave voice to, a nationalist desire for revenge, pride, and power, in which vision, and through its supposed benefits, the individuals could participate.

But the revanchist Left is not opposed to Trump as the avatar of the Right, of capitalism, of Americanism (once called patriotism). They cannot object to his policies per se, because the policies, one by one, are demonstrably superior in practice to any the Left has employed and, in reason, to any they have suggested. Their objections are all ad hominem, alleging various isms, which epithet may be applied, given but little inventiveness, to any of his words or acts. (As they may to any of yours or mine.) To suggest it is his acts that enrage the Left would be as to understand the Islamist attacks of September 11 as architectural criticism.

The Trump resistance began in the first hours of his presidency and has continued unabated by either reason or fatigue. There are no dissentient voices on the left, for any suggesting consideration, let alone dissent, have been expelled, vilified, and canceledthey are thus no longer on the left. Perhaps in this the disease starts to proclaim itself.

Leo Marks was a British codebreaker at Bletchley Park, during the Second World War. In his book Between Silk and Cyanide (1998), he writes about the codebreakers disease: Engaged as they are in trying to break the code, it is their last thought at night, and their first on awakening. Many of them became illphysically or psychologicallyfrom the strain.

Marks was in charge of decrypting the messages sent by Allied agents parachuted into Nazi-controlled Holland. He was, he writes, driven mad by the suspicion that the Allied agents had been captured and turnedthat is, that they, and so their codes, were being manipulated by the Nazis. He could find no error in the transmissions, but his suspicions would not go away. One morning he awoke and realized that the problem (that he could find no errors) was, of course, the solution: It would have been impossible for an Allied spy in Nazi Holland to transmitin haste and in hiding, risking deathwithout errors in the transmission. The agents had been captured or turned, he concluded.

There are no errors in the unity of the Left, which may be a key to the solution of their irrational, implacable loathing. Trump is hated as the most prominent example of one whos not afraid to employ reason. He has been canceled but ridicules their verdict.

It is not his plans (the Left doesnt hear of them) or his accomplishments (they are discounted, attributed to others, glossed over, or dismissed as nefarious) that are loathed, but the man himself, as he had the temerity to hold himself superior to the zeitgeist.

The zeitgeist is the Decline of the West, which had been sweeping the world since the American apogee, victory in World War II, and the advent of the most prosperous economy in history.

Things age, mature, and die. Fascism was a 20-year-long dictatorship, expanded through murder and terror. American exceptionalism and prosperity are the overwhelming story of the 20th century; it was not spread by the sword, and it will not die by the sword. Lincoln said that all the massed armies of Europe, Asia, and Africa combined could not take a drink from the Ohio, but American culture has been decaying throughout my lifetime, as must any organism. Mr. Trumps presidency has lengthened the American experience by some number of years. That number will be debated by the civilizations that succeed us, who will wonder at our fall, as the educated once did at that of Nineveh and Tyre.

Tragedy, to be compelling, must address a prerational experience or unity. A Hokusai painting of a wave makes us nod in recognition, as we do at a resolution of a Bach fugue. We cannot explain or dissect our experience of understanding, but it is undeniable. True art creates in us the same feeling of fulfillment, its possible description just beyond the rational mind.

The technician might explain it technically, the musician employing the cycle of fifths, or the painter some theory of color or proportion, but this merely puts the problem at one remove. For, after the technical reduction, even the expert cannot quite answer the question of why: Why, for example, is the eye so pleased by the golden mean? Like any great truth, our understanding of art must devolve into metaphysics or an assertion merely leading to an infinite regression.

The human mind will and must assemble phenomena into cause and effect. We will intuit or ascribe a causal relationship to two events that, to another, have no possible connection: Aunt Edna did not call on my birthday because shes furious I didnt sufficiently praise her new frock; Germany is troubled because of the Jews; we are suffering a pandemic because Trump did or did not act quickly enough, and an economic disaster because he did.

Psychoanalysis (and politics) attempts to address or capitalize on our human suggestibility, particularly on our frenzied willingness to assign our disquiets to another. Solutions offered thus flatter our ability to identify a problem, suggest its cure, and remind us to come back tomorrow for another dose.

Drama acts similarly, engaging us in the assurance that the cause of all problems is evident, and that our reason will suffice to cure them. The Bad Butler did it; Deaf People are People, Too; Love Is All There Is; and so on. If we enjoy the mixture, it must (and will) be taken regularly.

Tragedy provides not reassurance but calm through the completion of a mechanical progression. Its end is probative, for it is the disposition of all the variables (the code) stipulated at its beginningmathematically, there is no remainder.

The journey of Oedipus begins because there is a plague on Thebes; it is the kings job to conquer it. Without the initiating impulse (the stated problem), the play becomes merely a drama, it cannot be a tragedy, and we take away from it not that peace from recognizing the human condition but the lesson Do not sleep with your mother.

Can our current national emergency be viewed as perhaps a classical tragedy rather than as sordid drama? We see that the various factions are fighting over a disordered kingdom; each employs (to its own degree) the universal tools of indictment, incitement, appeal, reason, conspiracy, deception, and so on (assignment of these to taste). Considering ourselves as the dramatist, we can prognosticate an end: civil war, dissolution and chaos, conquest by a foreign power, return to a new and healthier polity actually based on the Constitution . . .

But such an end, to satisfy as tragedy, must be understood as the resolution of that specific problem absent the appearance of which we would not have a play. (Hamlets father dies.)

But in our case, what brought about the plague of Thebes?

The builders of the Tower of Babel suffered from hubris. They thought that they could aspire to heaven and raise themselves above human concerns, and that the various conflicting impulses of humanity would go away if we all spoke with one tongue. This tongue, of course, would be that of the builders, and I will leave comparisons with globalism to the reader. But it is no sin to be prosperous, and even the most committed Marxist wishes only to regularize (that is, reduce) the wealth and consumption of his neighbor.

What is the precipitating event or situation whose resolution would be one of those mooted above? We know our current pandemic came from China, and from trade with China. And every schoolchild knows that April showers bring May flowers, Mayflowers bring Pilgrims, and Pilgrims bring typhus.

The demagogues of the Left have discovered anew the ancient secrets of corruption, collusion, and decay, and, like all their predecessors, delight in their discovery: indicting their opponents for their own crimes.

We had, on April Fools Day 2020, two events warring for pride of place in our reconstruction of the tragic cryptogram: the pandemic, and the election of Donald Trump. But tragedy cannot have two precipitating events. (See the childs excuse I didnt do my homework because the dog ate it, and my mother has the flu.) Two explanations are none.

We must choose one, determine how the two are, if not identical, then conjoined (My mother has the flu, she usually feeds the dog, she could not, the dog became hungry and ate my homework), or discard them both and begin our work again, remembering Tolstoys admonition that the first or most apparent manifestation of an event is not necessarily the cause: The savage seeing the puffs of smoke first might conclude that they caused the locomotive.

The Left insists that our national disruption is caused by the election of President Trump, which affront would be resolved by his removal from office.

But if the successful results of their machinations brought us to civil war or economic collapse, then the effect would be out of adjustment with the supposed cause. (See the all too common explanation of spousal murder: You would have shot her too if you saw the way she looked at me.)

That message was fictionalized in Atlas Shrugged. Ayn Rand lived through the Russian Revolution, in St. Petersburg, and spent her working life, in fiction and nonfiction, writing about the horror.

Here is another report, by Alexander, Grand Duke of Russia, first cousin to the czar, from Once a Grand Duke (1931):

What was to be done about those princes and countesses who spent their lives going from door to door and spreading monstrous lies about the Czar and Czarina? What was to be done with that scion of the ancient family of Princes Dolgoruky who sided with enemies of the Empire? What was to be done with the president of Moscow University, Prince Troubetskoi, who turned that famous institution of learning into a radical campus? What was to be done with that brilliant Professor Milukoff, who felt it his duty to denounce the regime in foreign lands, undermining our credit abroad and gladdening the hearts of our foes? . . . What was to be done with our press who met with rousing cheers every news of our defeat on the Japanese front?

The message on Nebuchadnezzars wall was You have been weighed in the balance and found wanting.

Trump Mania is not a message, but a key, serving to obscure an underlying message.

The key (the accusations of the Left) disguises an underlying terroroperating here just as the near-psychotic, immobilized by a terrifying, free-floating anxiety, extemporizes specific phobias in an effort to gain some control.

It is not that I am losing my mind in unnameable panic, he thinks, but that Martians, or mice, food additives, or Jews are trying to destroy me.

The Lefts loathing of Trump differs from their other attempts at constructive phobia in this: He is not an event, a phenomenon, an attitude, or a group, but an actual human being.

He has supplanted previous attempted solutions to panic, but universal and vicious loathing comes close, in its virulence, to revealing the key, and thus the presence of an underlying code.

He is a mere human being who has the temerity to disregard the taboo.

In the Salem Witch Trials of 1692, some brave soul might speak up for one accused of witchcraft; but no one would have dared to say, and few to think, There is no such thing as witchcraft.

The Lefts hatred of Trump reveals their code. They here are like the ghoul Rumpelstiltskin, whose power disappeared when the victim said his name.

Trump is loathed because he is feared, and he is feared because he named the monster.

The Monster is the zeitgeist, that is to say, the Left.

If you enjoyed this article, we have a proposition for you: Join NRPLUS. Members getallof our content (including the magazine), no paywalls or content meters, an advertising-minimal experience, and unique access to our writers and editors (conference calls, social-media groups, etc.). And importantly, NRPLUS members help keep NR going. Consider it?

If you enjoyed this article, and were stimulated by its contents, we have a proposition for you: Join NRPLUS.

See original here:
The Code and the Key - National Review

Daily COVID-19 reported cases dont say what we think they say – The Dallas Morning News

For many of us, the coronavirus has added something to the daily routine. We get up, make coffee, and then check how many new COVID-19 cases there are. Was yesterday better than the day before? This week better than last week? Are we flattening the curve? Is there a second surge?

But those daily counts may not mean what we think they mean, and the answers to the questions were all interested in are much more nuanced.

Last week, Dr. Daniel Podolsky, president of UT Southwestern Medical Center, told us there is wide variance in the amount of time between someone contracting COVID-19 and the case being reported. Sometimes the lag is a day or two. Sometimes its more than two weeks. Whats more, theres no way to tell how many of each days new cases were recently contracted and how many are weeks old. Because of that variance, day-to-day reports of new cases dont accurately reflect real-time public health dynamics.

Podolsky suggested another metric for measuring the viruss spread: ICU beds. On Monday, 25 Dallas hospitals reported 3,447 of 5,713 beds occupied. Thats just over 60%, which is down from a peak of nearly 70% last week but still higher than last month.

Still another metric, and one that would tell us exactly how successful weve been at flattening the curve, is something called an R0 score (pronounced R naught). The R0 is a measure of how many people are being infected by each infected person. If the R0 score is 1, then every infected person infects exactly one more, and the outbreak will plateau. If the R0 is greater than 1, then the outbreak is growing with each cycle, or what experts call serial interval. Thats the average time between each successive infection. Taken together, the R0 and the serial interval can predict how quickly an outbreak will grow or recede.

Without precautions like social distancing, doctors say, the coronavirus will have an R0 as high as 3 (thats very contagious; more contagious than flu or SARS1) and a serial interval of about four days. So based on those numbers, if there were one infected person in Dallas on March 1, then on March 5, there would have been four infected people (the original case plus the three he infected). On March 9, there would have been 13 infected, and on March 13, there would have been 40 infected. The number grows exponentially with each successive generation so that by the middle of April every person in North Texas would have been infected.

Of course, that is not what happened. The virus has not spread at that rate. And, whats more, Texas aggressive measures to slow the spread have spared us from the fate of hot spots like New York, according to Dr. James Cutrell, the director of the infectious disease fellowship program at UT Southwestern.

But as useful as R0 is in theory, it is frustratingly hard to determine. The actual R0 of the coronavirus in Dallas is affected by myriad unknown variables like weather, ZIP code (some neighborhoods are naturally more isolated than others), public policy and human behavior. The number is such a murky composite of medicine, mathematics and social science that Dallas County Health and Human Services doesnt report it.

But others are willing to guess. The founders of Instagram have coded a resource called rt.live that reports estimated R0 values for each state in the U.S., and though its not an academic or scientific resource, it is based on data from The Atlantics COVID Tracking Project and is used by institutions such as the White House and Johns Hopkins University. As of May 5, rt.live put Texas score at 0.85, down from a high of 1.2 in March, meaning that if it is right, the outbreak is receding.

All of this is fascinating guesswork but doesnt give us a lot of confidence in those daily reports of new cases. And that, said Cutrell, is the point. He compared day-to-day or even week-to-week case counts to stock market day trading: When you chase daily numbers you can miss the long-term trend. He said we should look at longer time horizons when judging our success at flattening the curve. Which means that our evaluations of public policy changes should also be tempered.

Last week, Dallas County reported more cases than any week since the outbreak began, and that on the heels of Gov. Greg Abbotts relaxing shelter-at-home rules. The temptation is to assume that the latter caused the former. And while more interpersonal interactions will certainly lead to more infection, Cutrell said its too simple to couple numbers from last week with policy from the week before.

There are two lessons to learn from all this. First, as World Health Organizations emergencies chief Dr. Michael Ryan said Monday, without adequate testing and contact tracing measures we are essentially shutting our eyes and trying to drive though this blind. But second, and more comforting, perhaps we can take a break from fretting over up-to-the-minute reports on this pandemic. As we said Monday, the psychological trauma of this time cannot be ignored. Theres no reason to feed that trauma with daily reports, so wed encourage putting the day-to-day numbers in context of the longer trend and reviewing other data points to see where we are headed.

View original post here:
Daily COVID-19 reported cases dont say what we think they say - The Dallas Morning News

This Philosopher Is Challenging All of Evolutionary Psychology – Gizmodo

Subrena SmithPhoto: University of New Hampshire

Its not often that a paperattempts to take down an entire field. Yet, this past January, thats precisely what University of New Hampshire assistant philosophy professorSubrena Smiths paper tried to do. Is Evolutionary Psychology Possible? describes a major issue with evolutionary psychology, called the matching problem.

The field of evolutionary psychology is no stranger to critiques, given its central idea: that human behaviors can be explained in evolutionary terms and that the core units governing our actions havent changed since the Stone Age. But Smiths paper garnered a particularly strong response after science journalist Adam Rutherford discussed it on Twitter and PZ Myers discussed it in his Pharyngula blog.

We at Gizmodo have long rolled our eyes at the often-nonsensical conclusions that some people come to when employing evolutionary psychology theory, so we were excited to chat with Smith about her work. This interview has been condensed and edited for clarity.

Gizmodo: Your papers main refutation of the field is something called the matching problem. Can you explain what that is?

Subrena Smith: Evolutionary psychologists thought is that, for at least some of our behaviors, they believe that we havedare I use this termhard-wired cognitive structures that are operating in all of us contemporary human beings the same way they did for our ancestors on the savannas. The idea is that, in the modern world, we have sort of modern skulls, but the wiringthe cognitive structure of the brain itselfis not being modified, because enough evolutionary time hasnt passed. This goes for evolutionary functions like mate selection, parental care, predator avoidancethat our brains were pretty much in the same state as our ancestors brains. The sameness in how our brains work is on account of genetic selection for particular modules that are still functional in our environment today. [Editors note: These modules refer to the idea that the brain can be divided up into discrete structures with specific functions.]

G/O Media may get a commission

The matching problem is really the core issue that evolutionary psychologists have to show that they can meet: that there is really a match between our modules and the modules of the prehistoric ancestors; that theyre working the same way then as now; and that these modules are working the same way because they are descended from the same functional lineage or causal lineage. But I dont see any way that these charges can be answered.

Gizmodo: What inspired you to write this paper?

Smith: I talked about some of these issues in my dissertation, but the ideas got mature and seasoned since graduate school. I suppose the question is, why evolutionary psychology? I was associated roughly with that scene some years ago. I found the evolutionary psychology explanations of human behavior in themselves evocative but also puzzling, given what I understood of the theory of evolution, particularly the importance of variation. People have been talking about it for so long, saying that its not workable, its problematic. Ive never taken that attitude. Ive seen evolutionary psychologists as scientists trying to figure things out. My approach has been to think carefully about what theyre doing. I didnt have an attitude of, this is just ridiculous. I wanted to carefully try to articulate what seems to be a fatal problem with the framework and to put it out there.

Gizmodo: Can you give some examples of scenarios of the matching problem in action?

Smith: Heres the problem. With respect to human beings, we dont have the relevant evidence about how our ancestors behaved to make any substantiative claims. We can only use evidence of our behavior and evidence of the likely kinds of behaviors that they would have exhibited in the past. We know that ancient humans avoided predation, for instance. What exactly they did is something evolutionary psychologists have to show. Did our ancestors avoid predation because they were good at hiding in bushes or because they were running? Evolutionary psychologists would say that the better explanation is that they were running. But the fact that they ran to avoid predation and the fact that we have the disposition to run when were endangered still does not establish that theres a singular module doing both of those jobs.

Gizmodo: You flesh out another example, from a paper by Aaron Goetz and Kayla Causey about cuckoldry. Can you explain this?

Smith: The hypothesis is that, in the environment of evolutionary adaptation, mate infidelity was costlier for males than it was for females. Presumably, its on accountof the fact that, if youre a man, you might end up taking care of someone elses child. So college students were asked how likely it is that theyd have sexual intercourse with someone other than their current partner. Now, one of my major charges with evolutionary psychologists is that they go to the ordinary folks, college students, and they ask them questions about such intimate things like their sexual behavior. We know that people are wanting to not be honest about such matters, and, of course, evolutionary psychologists are aware of this. The second issue is that the answers given to these sorts of questions are then generalized to humanity in general.

The thought is that we expect to find this particular behavior in the contemporary world, namely that respondents who answered these questions are apt to be vigilant around their mate; males in this context are inclined to be vigilant around their female partner. (The study authors didnt ask any questions about same-sex relationships, but lets set that aside). Evolutionary psychologists posit that, based on these questionnaire answers, mate guarding behavior is driven by a hard-wired, domain-specific cognitive module whose function is to procure and protect ones mate from extramarital relationships. But their evidence is nothing more than the responses given to these prying questions by contemporary college students. My worry is that it doesnt begin to be a scientific study. Theres no way to move from the contemporary case to the prehistoric case, which is a hypothesized case about how prehistoric males behaved with respect to their mates and cheating.

The hypothesis is: Were getting these reports from the U.S. context because theres a module they inherited from their ancestors. So were moving from a report of how people would behave in these situations to claims about how our ancestors did in fact behave. This is really deeply flawed. I dont think that this is good enough for the sorts of things that evolutionary psychologists want their theory to do. You need more than that.

Gizmodo: What are some of the potential harms of evolutionary psychology as a theory?

Smith: While I think that evolutionary theory is the only game in town to give us accounts of biological questions when were thinking about evolutionary history and claims about selection, I also think its grossly misappropriated. One of the things people tend to forget is that in On the Origin of Species, Darwin takes several chapters to talk about variations. And yet the impression one gets from evolutionary psychologists for uses of evolutionary theory is that, when were talking about human begins and our brains, evolution has given us this static system. That our brains are static. And in fact, nothing could be further from the truth. Our brains are dynamic, our behaviors are dynamic, were imaginative, we generate novel behaviors in contexts that never exhibited themselves. That variation is one of the things about evolution we should be including more in our theories.

The evolutionary psychologists I engage with are not silly people. They are thoughtful and philosophical about these matters. However, the attractiveness of evolutionary theory coupled with peoples ideological biases forces them to not be as careful as they might be otherwise. I think that the consequences for our world when we misappropriate evolutionary accounts are really serious. People are saying that people of color have smaller brains, which is not true, or that women arent as great as men, which is not true... I think we have a special responsibility, when we say evolution made us that way, to recognize that people will read innate or hardwired as synonymous with evolution. We should be especially careful to not be making claims like these, which can have consequences.

If you say evolution made us so, then governments can rightly say you dont have the capacity to do something, so we wont use our resources to make you do stuff you cant do. This is about the science and politicsmaking sure that were not misappropriating the science to underwrite our politics in a way to suit interests, be they my interests or their interests. If I have interests inconsistent with what the science says, I dont think I should be given a pass. But my view is that I dont see the framework of evolutionary psychology as-is providing us with an explanation of human behavior that we can get behind.

Gizmodo: I know the paper made a big splash. Can you tell me what the response has been like?

Smith: I did a [post] of sort for this evolution blog, and I understand that someone responded to me. Im happy to have the intellectual conversation. Im not a tweeter and I dont have a Twitter account. My spouse is, and he tells me that there have been some not-so-nice things, as well as people who are championing my cause. Adam Rutherford, who I really like, a British broadcaster who was a geneticist, was one of the first people to pick up the paper and say the arguments were compelling and that evolutionary psychologists should be answering these arguments. But otherwise, I told my husband I dont want to hear stuff from Twitter, particularly if its a teaching day. Its fair to say that its been not very nice, and also people who have been thoughtful in their responses, plus lots of people asking me if I want to write something for them. Thats a good thing, but I dont have time.

Gizmodo: Whats your end goal? What do you want from evolutionary psychologists?

Smith: My little paper isnt going to stop this discipline. Its not going to cease departments where evolutionary psychology is thriving from existing. I do hope it gets a conversation going. I actually think that it is a worthy project to ask ourselves questions about how are we related to our prehistoric ancestors in such things as behaviors.

My view is that while we might talk about similarity and ancestry with respect to normal physical phenotypes, I am reluctant to go there with behaviors. For me, its really because of the flexibility that is needed in order for any organism to thrive in the environments that they find themselves... Long story short, what I hope this paper does is gets us all thinking a little bit deeper about what is it to talk about evolution and psychology and human behavior.

Read more:
This Philosopher Is Challenging All of Evolutionary Psychology - Gizmodo

MINISTER’S MOMENT by REV. WILL WILSON | Lifestyles – Kilgore News Herald

We have a lot of knowledge. Arguably, we are the most knowledgeable global society to ever live on the face of the earth.

Im constantly amazed at what we can reasonably know: the surface temperature of Jupiter; the average number of cells in any given human body; the age of the Earth, and so on.

Weve all come to know recently that Epidemiologists can even predict with stunning accuracy the life cycle of a virus. What we can know not only applies to the realm of the scientific.

We have the ability to predict, on firm grounds, trends in politics, economics, and human behavior. We have an abundance lot of knowledge, but Im afraid we have a scarcity of wisdom. Knowledge without wisdom can be very dangerous.

One of the greatest kings of Israel was king Solomon. Solomon had his issues, but he also had wisdom.

God appeared to Solomon, as 2 Chronicles 1:7 tells the story, and asked him what shall I give you? Instead of possessions, wealth, (and) honor, Solomon asked for wisdom and knowledge (2 Chr. 1:10).

Solomon asked for not just knowledge, but wisdom and knowledge. Knowledge only gives you what to say. However, knowledge and wisdom not only give you what to say, but how to say it and when.

Knowledge only gives you information about what to do, but knowledge and wisdom give you so much more: the when and how to do it. You cant have wisdom without knowledge.

Wisdom requires knowledge. However, too many people have knowledge without wisdom. God calls us to have both.

The wisdom God calls us to seek is not the wisdom of this world because the foolishness of God is wiser than humans (1 Cor 1:25). Were called to seek Gods wisdom.

Gods wisdom has been revealed to us in the flesh and blood of Jesus. St. Paul declares that Jesus Christ became to us wisdom from God (1 Cor 1:30).

Worldly wisdom says win at all costs. Gods wisdom in Christ says that in losing ourselves we truly find ourselves. Worldly wisdom: get all you possibly can.

Gods wisdom revealed in Jesus Christ: we find true honor and fulfillment in sacrificeby giving instead of getting.

Worldly wisdom: get even. The wisdom of Christ: love your enemies. Let us have knowledge, but more importantly, may we have Gods wisdom revealed in Christ.

Visit link:
MINISTER'S MOMENT by REV. WILL WILSON | Lifestyles - Kilgore News Herald

DeepMind compares the way children and AI explore – VentureBeat

In a preprint paper, researchers at Alphabets DeepMind and the University of California, Berkeley propose a framework for comparing the ways children and AI learn about the world. The work, which was motivated by research suggesting childrens learning supports behaviors later in life, could help close the gap between AI and humans when it comes to acquiring new abilities. For instance, it might lead to robots that can pick and pack millions of different kinds of products while avoiding various obstacles.

Exploration is a key feature of human behavior, and recent evidence suggests children explore their surroundings more often than adults. This is thought to translate to more learning that enables powerful, abstract task generalization a type of generalization AI agents could tangibly benefit from. For instance, in one study, preschoolers who played with a toy developed a theory about how the toy functioned, such as determining whether its blocks worked based on their color, and they used this theory to make inferences about a new toy or block they hadnt seen before. AI can approximate this kind of domain and task adaptation, but it struggles without a degree of human oversight and intervention.

The DeepMind approach incorporates an experimental setup built atop DeepMind Lab, DeepMinds Quake-based learning environment comprising navigation and puzzle-solving tasks for learning agents. The tasks require physical or spatial navigation skills and are modeled after games children play. In the setup, children are allowed to interact with DeepMind Lab through a custom Arduino-based controller, which exposes the same four actions agents would use: move forward, move back, move left, and turn right.

During experiments approved by UC Berkeleys institutional review board, the researchers attempted to determine two things:

In one test, children were told to complete two mazes one after another each with the same layout. They explored freely in the first maze, but in the second they were told to look for a gummy.

The researchers say that in the no-goal condition the first maze the childrens strategies closely resembled that of a depth-first search (DFS) AI agent, which pursues an unexplored path until it reaches a dead-end and then turns around to explore the last path it saw. The children made choices consistent with DFS 89.61% of the time compared to the goal condition (the second maze), in which they made choices consistent with DFS 96.04% of the time. Moreover, children who explored less than their peers took the longest to reach the goal (95 steps on average), while those who explored more found the gummy in the least amount of time (66 steps).

The team notes that these behaviors are in contrast with the techniques used to train AI agents, which often depend on having the agent stumble upon an interesting area by chance and then encouraging it to revisit that area until it is no longer interesting. Unlike humans, which are prospective explorers, AI agents are retrospective.

In another test, children aged four to six were told to complete two mazes in three phases. In the first phase, they explored the maze in a no-goal condition, a sparse condition with a goal and no immediate rewards, and a dense condition with both a goal and rewards leading up to it. In the second phase, the children were tasked with once again finding the goal item, which was in the same location as during exploration. In the final phase, they were asked to find the goal item but with the optimal route to it blocked.

Initial data suggests that children are less likely to explore an area in the dense rewards condition, according to the researchers. However, the lack of exploration doesnt hurt childrens performance in the final phase. This isnt true of AI agents typically, dense rewards make agents less incentivized to explore and lead to poor generalization.

Our proposed paradigm [allows] us to identify the areas where agents and children already act similarly and those in which they do not, concluded the coauthors. This work only begins to touch on a number of deep questions regarding how children and agents explore In asking [new] questions, we will be able to acquire a deeper understanding of the way that children and agents explore novel environments, and how to close the gap between them.

Read more:
DeepMind compares the way children and AI explore - VentureBeat

This Week’s Awesome Tech Stories From Around the Web (Through May 9) – Singularity Hub

BIOTECH

With CRISPR, a Possible Quick Test for the CoronavirusCarl Zimmer | The New York TimesA team of scientists has developed an experimental prototype for a fairly quick, cheap test to diagnose the coronavirus that gives results as simply as a pregnancy test does. The test is based on a gene-editing technology known as CRISPR, and the researchers estimated that the materials for each test would cost about $6.

IBM Now Has 18 Quantum Computers in Its Fleet of Weird MachinesStephen Shankland | CNETEighteen quantum computers might not sound like a lot. But given that each one is an unwieldy device chilled within a fraction of a degree above absolute zero and operated by PhD researchers, its actually a pretty large fleet. In comparison, Googles quantum computers lab near Santa Barbara, California, has only five machines, and Honeywell only has six quantum computers.

An AI Can Simulate an Economy Millions of Times to Create Fairer Tax PolicyWill Douglas Heaven | MIT Technology ReviewThe tool is still relatively simple (theres no way it could include all the complexities of the real world or human behavior), but it is a promising first step toward evaluating policies in an entirely new way. It would be amazing to make tax policy less political and more data driven, says team member Alex Trott.

Spot the Robot Is Reminding Parkgoers in Singapore to Keep Their Distance From One AnotherJames Vincent | The VergeThe robot is fitted with cameras that will be used to estimate the number of visitors to the park, but Singapores National Parks Board (NParks) says it wont collect personal data or use the video to identify individuals. If the trial is successful, NParks says the robot could be deployed full-time during peak hours in the park.

In the Future, Touchscreens Will Be Obsolete. This Lab Designs Whats NextLuke Dormehl | Digital TrendsConductive paint that turns regular, boring walls intoenormous touch-sensitive panelsat a cost of $1 per square foot? Of course! Asmartwatch that uses laser projectionto extend its touchscreen all the way up your arm? No problem! A device for simulating touch in virtual reality byturning humans into living marionettes? Youve come to the right place!

How Much Energy Does It Take to Blow Up a Planet?Rhett Allain | WiredSo, on orders from Emperor Palpatine, a Xyston-class Star Destroyer fires a super powerful beam from space andblows up the planet Kijimi. Just like that. I know what youre thinking: How much energy would it take to blow up a planet? Of course, its just an academic question. Im sure youre not a Sith lord with bad intentions, so Ill show you how to figure this out.

Image credit:Joel Mbugua /Unsplash

Visit link:
This Week's Awesome Tech Stories From Around the Web (Through May 9) - Singularity Hub

We Need Gossip Now More Than Ever – VICE

Don't tell anyone, but my boyfriend's friend chipped her tooth. She can't get it fixed because it's a non-essential dental procedure. I'm not sure how big the chip is, but it is on her front tooth. Isn't that awful (and just a little bit funny)? Keep this to yourself too: in my boyfriend's friend's Zoom physics college class, a student started yelling and cursing at the teacher! He was frustrated that he couldn't see the problems because she was scrolling too fast. Bit of an overreaction, no? He said some really inappropriate things, the teacher should have muted him.

These tidbits are from me and my boyfriend's nightly gossip sesha new ritual we've picked up while social distancing and working from home during the pandemic. As the days have started to blur into a monotonous haze, I demanded one night: "Tell me some goss." My boyfriend's offering wasn't that salacious, but framing it as gossip was exciting, and provided us two minutes of entertainment that wasn't the news or whatever TV shows or books we're filling our time with.

Since then we've kept it up. Each day, I consider what my gossip to share will be, and he does the same. In the evening, one of us (usually the one with the better gossip) will proclaim: "You ready for some goss?!" The other eagerly stops what they are doing, in rapt attention.

Everyone loves gossip. If they say they dont, theyre lying. Theres nothing more thrilling than hearing that someone is ready to spill some tea. When there's dirt to dish, were electrifiedeager to be privy to inside information.

Lets be honest, the poet W.H. Auden wrote, in a 1937 essay In Defense of Gossip. When you open your newspaper, as soon as you have made sure that England hasnt declared war, or been bombed, what do you look at? Why, the gossip columns!

Gossiping gets a bad rap ( "If you have nothing nice to say, don't say it at all") but for those of us lucky enough to be safely bored at home, we need gossip more than ever before. An intentional gossip practice, even over video chat, is not only fun, it can help us feel closer to one another. Researchers who study gossip have found that it helps us bond, increases cooperation, and encourages good behavior and self-reflectionall qualities of a good quarantine habit.

Theres no reason whatever why gossip should make mischief, Auden wrote. As a game played under the right rules, it's an act of friendliness, a release of the feeling, and a creative work of art.

Here are the rules of gossip, agreed upon by gossip researchers. Gossip must be information about another person, not the stock market or the weather. The person cant be there while youre talking about them, they must be an "absent third party." And gossip is usually evaluativemeaning its making a moral judgement about that person and their behavior, that something they did is either good or bad.

Its entertaining, said Frank McAndrew, a professor of psychology at Knox College in Illinois who has done a number of studies on gossip. We cant look away. It just draws us in.

Though Eleanor Roosevelt said great minds discuss ideas; average minds discuss events; small minds discuss people," the truth is that we are often of small mindswe gossip all the time. Gossiping starts around the age of 5, and one study found that about 60 percent of our conversations are made up of gossip.

Gossip is universal in all cultures and has been around for centuries. When a feature of human behavior is so ubiquitous, scientists tend to think its stuck around for a reasonthat in some way its helped us to survive.

Watch more from VICE:

Robin Dunbar, an Oxford University anthropologist and evolutionary psychologist, has proposed that gossip is the human version of primates grooming one another; it's a way of sharing social information, but verbally, and in larger groups than one ape picking bugs off another. Gossip may have developed because early humans needed to communicate and cooperate in order to survive. McAndrew said in early human civilizations, a person wouldnt have fared well without being interested in what others were up to. We've evolved to care (and talk about) who was best at hunting, who was the best mate, and who would stab us in the back.

More recent research has shown that gossip can bring even modern humans together. Sharing gossip tells a person that you trust them. That theyre going to be responsible with it, and that now we know something most other people dont. That really ties us together, McAndrew said.

Jennifer Bosson, a social psychologist at the University of South Florida, said gossip also communicates our likes and dislikes to others. She has studied how sharing our feelings about another person leads people to bond. She's found that talking about our negative opinions of others can strengthen new relationships more than positive opinionsthe spicier the gossip, the stickier it is as social glue.

Gossip also encourages us to behave, since we know if we do something outrageous, others will be whispering about it behind our backs. Gossip is one of the main ways we talk and learn about others' reputations.

The desire to maintain your reputation promotes cooperation with others and also deters people from doing nasty and awful things. It can force us to be good citizens and do the right thingsmeaning that gossiping about your friends who are violating social distancing rules could potentially be a way to make sure people stay at home. Studies of California cattle ranchers, Maine lobster fishers, and college rowing teams found they all used gossip to enforce their groups' social norms.

Gossip can also protect you from those with bad reputations. Prosocial gossip is when someone shares negative information about someone else, and it helps you avoid experiencing it yourself, like a whisper network. After hearing from a friend that a man ghosts every new girlfriend on the fourth date, you could choose to not go out with him at all. Gossip about other people can also make you think about yourself and your own actions, and want to be better, or be proud of yourself for acting differently.

I think one of the reasons why gossip is so much a part of who we are is because it is adaptive in so many different ways," McAndrew said.

Gossip can achieve all these things even if its about someone you dont know, like a celebrity. Because we can have extreme familiarity with celebrities lives, even without having ever met them, gossip about them matters just as much as the people we do know. In a recent interview in The Cut, Elaine Lui, journalist of Lainey Gossip.com, explained why even celebrity gossipaccused of being shallowcan reveal intimate parts of yourself to others.

We've evolved to care (and talk about) who was best at hunting, who was the best mate, and who would stab us in the back.

You and I were just gossiping about Ben Affleck and Ana de Armas," Lui said. "To me, our conversation was really about quarantining with someone you werent legitimately in love withabout relationships and human connection, and who you want to be spending your time with. Your analysis of Ben and Ana actually tells me something about you: what youre looking for in a companion, if you even need companionship, and how you want to spend your time. Those are valuable clues for me to understand you as a person better."

Gossipers (especially women) have historically been unfairly punished with cruel contraptions, like an iron cage with spikes from the 1500s, worn on the head, that prevents a person from talking. Or the ducking stool from the 1800s: a 12- to 15- foot beam that strapped a person to one end and plunged them into water.

Given the condition of the bodies of water located in or near towns during this period of history, what the woman was being immersed in was usually not much better than raw sewage, providing a strong incentive for her to keep her mouth tightly closed, McAndrew wrote in Psychology Today.

But no amount of dunking people in sewage has led to a scaling back of gossip before, so we might as well embrace it now, and figure out instead how to be better gossipers, in ways that bring us together and don't hurt others.

McAndrew doesn't think of gossip as inherently good or bad, but as a social skillyoull get in trouble if you dont do it well. One way of being a bad gossip is if you only share negative information about other people, in ways that obviously benefit you. This would be like constantly sharing gossip about why a co-worker is inferior to you, or how an ex's new partner is worse than you. Good gossip should share information that brings value to the person youre sharing it with, not just you.

If youre a blabbermouth repeating everything anyone tells you, then people wont trust you with any information because they know youre incapable of keeping it to yourself. Keeping gossip intimate is a way of preserving it as a delicacy, knowing that its rare and only shared between a few people.

And it should go without saying that taking your gossip online and making it public removes the positive benefits. When researchers discuss the adaptive nature of gossiping, theyre talking about it as a mode of communication that evolved way before the internet and social media.

Keeping gossip intimate is a way of preserving it as a delicacy, knowing that its rare and only shared between a few people.

Our ability to spread rumors online is really not functional in the same way that two members of the same group talk about whether or not another person is trustworthy, Bosson said. Thats serving a different function of gossip than spreading rumors about Meghan Markle. Sharing some information privately with your partner at home as a way of connecting is really different than going and broadcasting something that has a high risk of hurting somebody.

If youre struggling to come up with good gossip while quarantined, don't worry about finding huge scoops to share. McAndrew said that since our social lives have diminished, its likely that the standards for interesting gossip have gotten lowereven mundane things can now qualify as scintillating.

Some of the gossip Ive shared with my boyfriend wouldnt have sparked any interest before, like overhearing that our neighbor found some ants in their apartment or that my sister's boyfriend's dad threw up while they were in the car together.

According to Auden, the greatest subjects for gossip are "love, crime, and money." But when in doubt, remember that good goss is, at its core, about what the people around us are doing.

All art is based on gossipthat is to say, on observing and telling, Auden wrote. Gossip is the art-form of the man and woman in the street, and the proper subject for gossip, as for all art, is the behavior of mankind.

Follow Shayla Love on Twitter.

Read more from the original source:
We Need Gossip Now More Than Ever - VICE