Category Archives: Human Behavior

Human Behavior

Momentum is becoming a less-profitable strategy in the stock market – MarketWatch

CHAPEL HILL, N.C. Youd have made more money over the last two months by betting on the stock markets prior losers than on the winners. Thats just the opposite of what Wall Streets well-known momentum effect expects.

While this reversal was partially caused by temporary factors relating to the new bull market that began in late March, it also reflects more enduring changes in the market that could very well diminish the momentum effects profitability going forward.

That would represent a serious setback to what once was one of Wall Streets most profitable strategies. Since 1926, a portfolio of the stocks with the best trailing-year returns performed far better than a second portfolio containing the stocks with the worstby a margin of 10.6 annualized percentage points, according to data from Ken French, a Dartmouth professor.

This historical pattern has been turned on its head since the stock markets SPX, +1.83% March 23 lows, however. According to Frenchs data, the low-momentum portfolio since then through the end of April has beaten the high-momentum portfolio by 10.7 percentage points. And note that this margin of outperformance is unannualized; on an annualized basis, the low-momentum stocks advantage over that period is over 70 percentage points.

At least in part this reversal was to be expected, since momentum typically fails in the first couple of months after a bear-market bottom. That makes sense, of course. When the economy decides not to jump off a cliff, the best-performing stocks will be those basket cases that otherwise were near-certain bets of going bankrupt.

Recent research suggests that a longer-term shift in the markets may also be playing a role. That research finds both that the momentum effect is in large part caused by the behavior of retail investors, and that they represent a smaller and smaller proportion of overall trading volume.

The study, Retail Investors Contrarian Behavior Around News and the Momentum Effect, began circulating in February in academic circles. Its authors are Cheng (Patrick) Luo, the lead data scientist at Farallon Capital Management; Enrichetta Ravina, a professor at Northwestern University; and Luis Viceira, a professor at Harvard Business School. The researchers reached their conclusions upon analyzing the trading records of 2.8 million individual accounts at a major discount brokerage firm from 2010 through 2014.

They found that, on balance, individual investors react in a contrarian way to earnings surprises. That is, they tend to sell stocks that have had a positive surprise and buy stocks with a negative surprise. Their behavior leads to momentum because it means that stocks underreact to their earnings surprises. As the market eventually corrects this underreaction, the positive-surprise stocks keep on winning and the negative-surprise stocks continue losing.

This aspect of human behavior is not new. What has changed is the declining proportion of trading volume from individuals. Because of that, Ravina told me in an interview, wed expect the momentum effect to decline along with it.

And thats exactly what were seeing, as illustrated in the chart at the top of this article. It plots the difference in annualized trailing 20-year returns of the highest-momentum and lowest-momentum stocks. Notice the distinct downtrend over the last four decades.

The returns reflected in this chart dont take transaction costs into account. Since the momentum portfolios undergo lots of transactions, its entirely possible that, after transaction costs, high-momentum stocks enjoyed no actual advantage over low-momentum stocks over the last 20 years.

There are at least two major investment implications of this research. The first is that you may need to reduce your expectations for momentum approaches in coming years. The second is that you shouldnt automatically bet that the markets reaction to an earnings surprise will soon be reversed.

Mark Hulbert is a regular contributor to MarketWatch. His Hulbert Ratings tracks investment newsletters that pay a flat fee to be audited. He can be reached at mark@hulbertratings.com.

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Momentum is becoming a less-profitable strategy in the stock market - MarketWatch

Human Behavior

What you need to know about the COVID-19 pandemic on 26 May – World Economic Forum

Responding to the COVID-19 pandemic requires global cooperation among governments, international organizations and the business community, which is at the centre of the World Economic Forums mission as the International Organization for Public-Private Cooperation.

Since its launch on 11 March, the Forums COVID Action Platform has brought together 1,667 stakeholders from 1,106 businesses and organizations to mitigate the risk and impact of the unprecedented global health emergency that is COVID-19.

The platform is created with the support of the World Health Organization and is open to all businesses and industry groups, as well as other stakeholders, aiming to integrate and inform joint action.

As an organization, the Forum has a track record of supporting efforts to contain epidemics. In 2017, at our Annual Meeting, the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) was launched bringing together experts from government, business, health, academia and civil society to accelerate the development of vaccines. CEPI is currently supporting the race to develop a vaccine against this strand of the coronavirus.

1. How COVID-19 is affecting the globe

Countries where coronavirus infections are declining could still face an immediate second peak if they let up too soon on measures to halt the outbreak, the World Health Organization (WHO) warned on Monday.

Dr Michael J. Ryan, Chief Executive Director of the WHO Health Emergencies Programme said that while many cases are declining in some countries, they are still increasing in Central and South America, South Asia and Africa.

Epidemics often come in waves, Ryan said, and outbreaks could come back later this year in places where the first wave has subsided. There was also a chance that infection rates could rise again more quickly if measures to halt the first wave were lifted too soon.

When we speak about a second wave classically what we often mean is there will be a first wave of the disease by itself, and then it recurs months later. And that may be a reality for many countries in a number of months time, Ryan said.

Image: Statista

On 22 May, The Lancet published an observational study on the drugs hydroxycholoroquine and chloraquine, namely on their effects on hospital patients suffering from the novel coronavirus. The authors estimated a "higher mortality rate" among patients receiving the drug, with risk of death increasing by 34% and serious heart arrhythmias by 137%.

In the meantime, a group of participants in the WHO's Solidarity Trial announced that until they can evaluate the drug's potential harms and benefits, they would place a "temporary pause" of the hydroxychloroquine section of the trial, while the data is reviewed by the Data Safety Monitoring Board.

"I wish to reiterate that these drugs are accepted as generally safe for use in patients with autoimmune diseases or malaria," WHO Director-General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said during an online briefing on Monday.

With lockdown restrictions beginning to ease in some countries, many people are starting to ask when they can travel again. Typically, this means getting on a plane.

But is it safe, and how can you make the experience as safe as possible?

In this article, an epidemiologist and an exposure scientist walk you through how to minimize the risk of exposure to COVID-19 during air travel.

As well as using simple hygiene tips and arming yourself with specific knowledge about your airport and flight, they advise adopting a method called a "Heirarchy of Control" - a strategy often used by healthcare professionals.

"This approach does two things," the authors write. "It focuses on strategies to control exposures close to the source. Second, it minimizes how much you have to rely on individual human behavior to control exposure. Its important to remember you may be infectious and everyone around you may also be infectious."

The 'Heirarchy of Control' focuses on strategies to control exposures close to the source.

Image: CDC

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What you need to know about the COVID-19 pandemic on 26 May - World Economic Forum

Human Behavior

4 Non-Obvious Trends That Matter During This Pandemic – Singularity Hub

Last year at South By Southwest, author and entrepreneur Rohit Bhargava spoke to a packed auditorium about trends that, though they may not be obvious, are playing a serious role in shaping the future. Each year Bhargava spends untold hours figuring out which trends are going to be the most relevant and impactful, then puts out a book on them as part of his Non-Obvious series.

He was planning to speak about 2020 trends at this years SXSW festivalbut like every other large in-person event, it was canceled. And like every other thing in our lives, the pandemic has turned most of Bhargavas 2020 trends on their heads.

But not all of them. In fact, a select few trends that were already on the rise have been amplified by Covid-19, and now theyre even more significant. In a virtual SXSW session streamed from his home last week, Bhargava talked about these trends, how we can make the most of them, and how to find meaning amid chaos and confusion.

Were in a time of extreme disruptionthat much is obvious. The places were used to going, which are normally full of people, are empty. Were all at home trying to figure out how to pass the time productively. And we all have big questions about how the new normaleven once our states and cities start to reopenis going to change the way we do everything. Will students go back to school in the fall? Will we be working from home indefinitely? Will we always have to wear a face mask to go to the grocery store? Whats safe and what isnt?

Bhargava emphasized that hes not here to predict the future. Rather than being focused on where the world will be 5 to 10 years from now, he said, I focus on trying to observe today to figure out what to do today. Also, tech on its own doesnt intrigue him as much as the human response to tech and how its impacting our lives. Im more interested in how human behavior is evolving, he said.

But how do you figure that out when theres so, so much information coming at us from all sides? The big problem right now is that we just dont know what to believe, and so we dont believe anything, Bhargava said. The world seems untrustworthy and we dont know what to pay attention to.

Parody videos and articles have popped up poking fun at the confusion around coronavirus, but its disconcerting to realize how much misinformation has been flying around, and how little we know about this virus even after two and a half months of lockdowns.

Misinformation is, of course, not a new problem. And its impossible to consume all the information out there to try to figure out whats real. Instead of attempting to digest and make sense of all the news, tweets, memes, podcasts, articles, shares, retweets, and videos out there, Bhargava said, we should devote more time to trying to understand people. How do we become people who understand people? he asked. What motivates them to believe something, what gets them to act, what engages them?

Bhargavas own people-understanding process involves what he calls the haystack method. Rather than searching for a needle in a haystack, he gathers hay (ideas and stories) then uses it to locate and define a needle (a trend). Its really easy to read the same media that reinforces what you already think over and over, he said. But a key part of gathering valuable information is looking for it in places you wouldnt normally think to look. That means taking in media thats targeted to different demographics than those you fall into.

Once you look across a wide variety of channels, common themes emerge. Bhargava groups those themes together and tries to elevate them into a bigger idea; thats where his trends come from.

He defines a non-obvious trend as a unique curated observation of the accelerating present. Were in a moment now where the present is accelerating even faster, he said. Here are the four trends hes pinpointed that have been amplified by the current situationand how we can make the best of them.

Overwhelmed by technology and a sense that life is too complex, people seek out simpler experiences that offer nostalgia and remind them of a more trustworthy time; we revive habits, media, or connections we find comforting or reassuring. This trend was already in place before the pandemic; Bhargava included a variation of it in his 2019 SXSW talk. The breakneck speed of technology made many of us want to slow down and reconsider the role we want our phones and computers to play in our day to day lives.

But now, Bhargava said, revivalism is gaining even more momentum; if the world seemed complex and overwhelming before, that sense has multiplied by an order of magnitude now that were in a global health crisis. Rather than drowning in too much conflicting information, people are consciously cutting back on the amount of news and social media they consume each day (not least because its just. so. depressing.) and seeking out forms of entertainment that were cast aside long ago: books, puzzles, classic video games, board games. Were reconnecting virtually with friends or relatives we havent spoken to in a while. Were trying out old family recipes in the kitchen since we cant go to restaurants.

Its time, Bhargava said, to rediscover the analog; We can do these things outside of technology. Now that weve been forced to find substitutes for many components of our daily routines, maybe well learn that we dont need to be as dependent on our devices as we thought.

The second trend is essentially a more nuanced variation of the first. Tired of technology that isolates us from one another, people are seeking out and placing greater value on physical, authentic, and imperfect experiences delivered by humans. In a time when we cant hug our friends and families or even speak to store clerks without masks and plastic dividers, were craving empathetic, human experiences big-time.

The aforementioned dependence on digital devices as a way to interact with other people seems reprehensible now that we dont even have the in-person option. Before the pandemic we relied on social media to connect us, texting to communicate with each other, like buttons to share our opinions and preferences, and algorithms to streamline and improve our shopping, transit, and other experiences.

While all of that isnt going to go awayand may double down in a world where physical contact is now perceived as dangerouswere realizing how crucial and irreplaceable our human connections are. We need to focus on empathy first, Bhargava said. An empathetic approach (whether in business or simply with our families and friends) is most likely to provide value to people in the current situation. And probably always.

Have you picked up some new skills during lockdown? Tried your hand at some fancy recipes? Learned hard pieces on the guitar or piano? How likely is it that the skills or habits youve picked up will persist after this is all over?

As we consume bite-sized knowledge on demand, Bhargava said, we benefit from learning everything more quickly but risk forgetting the value of mastery and wisdom. Its become really easy to watch a YouTube video to learn just about anything; during the pandemic, views of cooking tutorial videos have skyrocketed, and its likely the same has happened for instructional videos of all types (including how to cut your own or your partners hair!). Since we now have access to information more readily than ever before, we expect to be able to learn things faster. But it still takes a lot of time and dedication to get really good at a skill or become an expert in a given field.

While its great to learn new skills quickly, lets not forget to zoom out and look at the bigger picture. Bhargava recommends finding ways to connect people with knowledge to inspire beliefs, expanding our worldviews and building towards a greater visionwhether for ourselves, our families, or the collective future.

The lines between industries are eroding, leading to a continual disruption of business models, distribution channels, and consumer expectations. This was happening before Covid-19 broke out; Apple was getting into financial services, banks were opening coffee shops, Crayola started making makeup, and Taco Bell opened a hotel (I know right- WHAT?! Its true though).

Now that everything is closed and were confined to our homes, businesses are having to adapt in ways they never imaginedand those that cant adapt are, unfortunately, in trouble. Everything about how we do business is shifting, Bhargava said. And that disruption is happening at an unprecedented pace. Even once the economy opens againwhich for many states in the US is happening this weekwe wont go back to how things were in 2019. The only way forward is to adapt.

We dont know whats coming next, Bhargava said. But we know that people who can adapt best are non-obvious thinkers who pay attention to whats happening and try to continue to change.

Image Credit: Rohit Bhargava by Brian Smale

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4 Non-Obvious Trends That Matter During This Pandemic - Singularity Hub

Human Behavior

Nature is so angry: Covid, cyclone and now heatwave – Economic Times

Indias resources are stretched to fight Covid-19 with cases continuing to both rise and spread after two months of a severe lockdown. And yet, this is not the only crisis in town. Last week super cyclonic storm Amphan left behind a trail of destruction on the countrys eastern coast and this week a heatwave is scorching the north. With temperatures rising beyond 45C IMD has issued red and orange warnings for various areas. In Uttarakhand the forest fires are raging again.

The pandemic has already driven home the costs of humanitys destruction of Nature, and heatwaves are one more manifestation of the same collective vulnerability and nightmare. Depletion of tree cover and of soil moisture mean greater transfer of heat from the earth to the atmosphere, and of course all the greenhouse gases added to this cocktail up the ante. Indeed last month tied for the worlds warmest April on record and 2020 is threatening to be the hottest year since records began despite months of cessation of normal economic activity. This is also a reminder that the bluer skies and cleaner air gifted by the coronavirus lockdowns are a very limited treat. Real change needs longer-term and structural shifts in human behavior and business.

There has been a great deal of hope expressed that somehow the pandemic, the lockdown, and the birdsong filling the lockdown will make the world change direction on climate change finally, in enlightened fashion. However, the odds are even that the opposite will happen. The joblessness and poverty caused by the pandemic could send countries rushing for growth pell-mell with environmental regulations being tossed aside instead of strengthened. Likewise, the multilateral cooperation that is needed for the COP framework to really achieve anything substantial is looking shabbier than yesterday.

But the world cannot afford stasis or setback on this. Increasing extreme weather events from Australia to America underline that as much as the pandemic has disrupted normal life, in the longer term climate change is incalculably more dangerous. So governments must find common ground for change. Post Covid reconstruction offers a special window for shaping economic activity with reduced emissions and reduced climate risks.

As for what is needed in Haryana, West MP, Vidarbha, Rajasthan etc in the coming days it is plentiful cooling support. Exposure of citizens in all affected areas has to be minimized, they need to stay hydrated, and health services need to gear up for complaints of heat exhaustion. Too often over the last few months we have seen different arms of government pulling in different directions. But such lack of coordination seriously hurts citizens interests. Staying cool also needs governments, businesses and civil society to get their act together. What should lend urgency is that according to WMO heatwaves were the deadliest meteorological hazard in the 20152019 period.

DISCLAIMER : Views expressed above are the author's own.

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Nature is so angry: Covid, cyclone and now heatwave - Economic Times

Human Behavior

Parenting: Behavior modification was never really proved – Arkansas Democrat-Gazette

Psychologist B.F. Skinner, the formulator of behavior modification theory, was attempting to prove that the same principles that govern the behavior of amoeba, planaria, rats, dogs and monkeys also govern the behavior of human beings. A very Darwinian proposition, indeed.

What my graduate school professors conveniently "forgot" to tell me: Skinner failed to prove his hypothesis, and no researcher has ever succeeded where Skinner did not. Some have claimed success, but all they've succeeded at proving, really, is the fact that human beings are economists by nature. From a very early age, humans weigh benefits versus costs and make logical decisions, if not always rational ones.

Dogs are not economists. Behavior modification strategies manipulations of reward and punishment compel the behavior of a dog. Their outcomes are predictable. But behavior modification outcomes are not at all reliably predictable in a human, even an infant.

Researchers have found that when the subject is human, rewards and punishments have paradoxical effects at times. Rewards can lessen desired behavior and punishment can increase undesired behavior. Significant numbers of parents have discovered the same paradox, albeit most of them don't understand what it is they're seeing.

Put a 15-month-old child in two minutes of timeout every time he goes after one of his mother's set of limited-edition porcelain figurines and watch as his determination to obtain the figurines increases. Praise and continue to praise a 4-year-old child for making an attempt to draw a horse and watch him stop drawing horses. In both cases, economics is at work.

In the case of the toddler, two minutes in a chair doesn't begin to outweigh the thrill of the chase. The more timeouts, the more of a challenge those figurines become. The 4-year-old stops drawing horses because he figures out, intuitively, that any old horse is good enough to send his mother into clapping spasms, high-fives, and "woo-woos!" That wears thin quickly.

To work, punishments must outweigh a child's determination to win, to prove that no one can tell him what to do. To win over the little rebel/economist, the cost of misbehaving must be significantly greater than the benefit and believe me when I say that rebellion is its own benefit. It scratches a persistent itch. The parental goal should be to punish infrequently, but when punishment is necessary, to do so in ways that establish permanent memories. Timeout is the least memorable of all punishments, by the way. It's merely annoying.

To be motivating, rewards must be dispensed conservatively. The more "everyday" they are, the less meaningful they become. The value of a reward is inverse to its frequency. The scarcity of praise forces a child to self-reward, which characterizes all high achievers.

As I will maintain forever, child-rearing is not complicated; it's almost completely a matter of common sense. Unfortunately, for going on 50 years now, American parents have been listening to professional "parenting" types who have made it seem complicated and anything but common-sensical.

Write to family psychologist John Rosemond at The Leadership Parenting Institute, 420 Craven St., New Bern, N.C. 28560 or email questions@rosemond.com. Due to the volume of mail, not every question will be answered.

Style on 05/26/2020

Print Headline: Behavior modification was never really proved

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Parenting: Behavior modification was never really proved - Arkansas Democrat-Gazette

Human Behavior

When it comes to punishments and rewards, think twice – Albuquerque Journal

.......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... ..........

Psychologist B.F. Skinner, the formulator of behavior modification theory, was attempting to prove that the same principles that govern the behavior of amoeba, planaria, rats, dogs, and monkeys also govern the behavior of human beings. A very Darwinian proposition, indeed.

What my graduate school professors conveniently forgot to tell me: Skinner failed to prove his hypothesis, and no researcher has ever succeeded where Skinner did not. Some have claimed success, but all theyve succeeded at proving, really, is the fact that human beings are economists by nature. From a very early age, humans weigh benefits versus costs and make logical decisions, if not always rational ones.

Dogs are not economists. Behavior modification strategies manipulations of reward and punishment compel the behavior of a dog. Their outcomes are predictable. But behavior modification outcomes are not at all reliably predictable in a human, even in an infant.

Researchers have found that when the subject is human, rewards and punishments have paradoxical effects at times. Rewards can lessen desired behavior and punishment can increase undesired behavior. Significant numbers of parents have discovered the same paradox, albeit most of them dont understand what it is theyre seeing.

Put a 15-month-old child in two minutes of timeout every time he goes after one of his mothers set of limited-edition porcelain figurines and watch as his determination to obtain the figurines increases. Praise and continue to praise a 4-year-old child for making an attempt to draw a horse and watch him stop drawing horses. In both cases, economics is at work.

In the case of the toddler, two minutes in a chair doesnt begin to outweigh the thrill of the chase. The more timeouts, the more of a challenge those figurines become. The 4-year-old stops drawing horses because he figures out, intuitively, that any old horse is good enough to send his mother into clapping spasms, high-fives, and woo-woos! That wears thin quickly.

To work, punishments must outweigh a childs determination to win, to prove that no one can tell him what to do. To win over the little rebel/economist, the cost of misbehaving must be significantly greater than the benefit and believe me when I say that rebellion is its own benefit. It scratches a persistent itch. The parental goal should be to punish infrequently, but when punishment is necessary, to do so in ways that establish permanent memories. Timeout is the least memorable of all punishments, by the way. Its merely annoying.

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To be motivating, rewards must be dispensed conservatively. The more everyday they are, the less meaningful they become. The value of a reward is inverse to its frequency. The scarcity of praise forces a child to self-reward, which characterizes all high achievers.

As I will forever maintain, child-rearing is not complicated; its almost completely a matter of common sense. Unfortunately, for going on 50 years now, American parents have been listening to professional parenting types who have made it seem complicated and anything but common-sensical.

Family psychologist John Rosemond: johnrosemond.com, parentguru.com.

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When it comes to punishments and rewards, think twice - Albuquerque Journal

Human Behavior

The 5 Steps of Habit Building – Michigan Lawyers Weekly

By Maura Mazurowski

According to a study by Duke University, habits account for about 40% of human behavior every day. That means roughly half of peoples daily activities are performed almost the same ways each and every day.

Our lives consist of habits weve formed over our lifetimes. Brushing your teeth upon waking, running in the afternoon, snacking late at night whether theyre good or bad, our habits become so ritualistic that we dont always recognize were doing them.

Psychologist Wendy Wood was among the first to call attention to the neurology of habits. As you repeat certain behaviors, the actions form like muscle memory in your brain. With enough repetition, habits become ingrained in us as rigid behaviors that our brains absentmindedly carry out.

COVID-19 has disrupted the lives of individuals worldwide. When our daily routines are derailed, its easy to feel aimless, confused and unsure of what actions to take to get through the day.

Rather than feel uncomfortable by todays unsettling, forced reality, perhaps we should adapt to the new societal limitations by developing habits and routines that can help us find some comfort in uncomfortable times.

That said, habit-forming is a more difficult process than one might think. According to the 21/90 rule, it takes 21 days to make a habit and 90 days to make a lifestyle.

In 2018, author James Clear published Atomic Habits: An Easy & Proven Way to Build Good Habits & Break Bad Ones. In his self-help debut, Clear breaks down the process of habit-building into five steps.

Step 1: Start small

Clear recommends making a new habit so easy that you cant say no. Start so small that you cant say you need more motivation to pick it up, or that if you only had the willpower you could make this work. Research suggests that willpower is like a muscle. It gets fatigued as you use it throughout the day. Therefore pick up a new habit that is so easy you dont need motivation to do it.

Rather than starting with 50 pushups per day, start with five pushups per day, Clear wrote. Make it easy enough that you can get it done without motivation.

Step 2: Increase your habit in very small ways

The zero to one hundred mindset is counterproductive in habit-building. Rather than striving for perfectionism right off the bat, slowly build on your new habit every day. If you want to play the guitar, start by strumming the same for chords every day for 15 minutes. The next week, bump it up to 20. Throw in a new chord here and there. Even Jimi Hendrix had to start somewhere.

Step 3: Break habits into chunks

If you continue to build on a habit just a bit every day, youll find it becomes easier to accomplish as the months go on. It is important to keep each habit reasonable, so that you can maintain momentum and make the behavior as easy as possible to accomplish, Clear said.

If youre attaching a quantitative goal to your habits, try breaking that number up throughout the day. Do you want to meditate every day for 20 minutes? Break it up into two 10-minute chunks. Do you want to do 50 push-ups daily? Start with five sets of 10. Breaking down behaviors into bite-sized pieces makes habit-building less intimidating and more attractive to take on.

Step 4: If you slip, quickly get back on track

Research has shown that missing your habit once has no measurable impact on your long-term progress. So abandon your all-or-nothing mentality; as human beings, were inevitably going to slip up. And being hard on yourself for failing to perform your new habit one day wont get you very far.

Clear suggests that you shouldnt expect to fail; rather, plan for the possibility that you might slip up. Consider the obstacles that could prevent your habit from forming. By doing so, you can more easily identify factors that will inhibit habit building and how to get back on track.

Step 5: Be patient

This may be the toughest step to follow, but according to Clear, its the most crucial to carry out. You can make incredible progress if you are consistent and patient, he wrote.

Habit building is an endurance game. Youre not going to complete a marathon the first day you start running. Patience and sustainability are key when forming new habits and behaviors.

The most important thing to remember is that new habits should feel easy, especially when just starting out. Identify a habit youd like to develop, and make it so attainable to achieve that you cant help but complete it every day until one day, you dont even notice yourself doing it.

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The 5 Steps of Habit Building - Michigan Lawyers Weekly

Human Behavior

How to stay safe when flying, according to two experts – World Economic Forum

We dont know about you, but were ready to travel. And that typically means flying.

We have been thinking through this issue as moms and as an exposure scientist and infectious disease epidemiologist. While weve decided personally that were not going to fly right now, we will walk you through our thought process on what to consider and how to minimize your risks.

The primary concern with flying or traveling by bus or train is sitting within six feet of an infected person. Remember: Even asymptomatic people can transmit. Your risk of infection directly corresponds to your dose of exposure, which is determined by your duration of time exposed and the amount of virus-contaminated droplets in the air.

A secondary concern is contact with contaminated surfaces. When an infected person contaminates a shared armrest, airport restroom handle, seat tray or other item, the virus can survive for hours though it degrades over time. If you touch that surface and then touch your mouth or nose, you put yourself at risk of infection.

While there is no way to make air travel 100% safe, there are ways to make it safer. Its important to think through the particulars for each trip.

One approach to your decision-making is to use what occupational health experts call the hierarchy of controls. This approach does two things. It focuses on strategies to control exposures close to the source. Second, it minimizes how much you have to rely on individual human behavior to control exposure. Its important to remember you may be infectious and everyone around you may also be infectious.

The 'Heirarchy of Control' focuses on strategies to control exposures close to the source.

Image: CDC

The best way to control exposure is to eliminate the hazard. Since we cannot eliminate the new coronavirus, ask yourself if you can eliminate the trip. Think extra hard if you are older or have preexisting conditions, or if you are going to visit someone in that position.

If you are healthy and those you visit are healthy, think about ways to substitute the hazard. Is it possible to drive? This would allow you to have more control over minimizing your exposures, particularly if the distance is less than a day of travel.

Youre going, now what?

If you choose to fly, check out airlines policies on seating and boarding. Some are minimizing capacity and spacing passengers by not using middle seats and having empty rows. Others are boarding from the back of the plane. Some that were criticized for filling their planes to capacity have announced plans to allow customers to cancel their flights if the flight goes over 70% passenger seating capacity.

Federal and state guidance is changing constantly, so make sure you look up the most recent guidance from government agencies and the airlines and airport you are using for additional advice, and current policies or restrictions.

While this may sound counterintuitive, consider booking multiple, shorter flights. This will decrease the likelihood of having to use the lavatory and the duration of exposure to an infectious person on the plane.

After you book, select a window seat if possible. If you consider the six-foot radius circle around you, having a wall on one side would directly reduce the number of people you are exposed to during the flight in half, not to mention all the people going up and down the aisle.

Also, check out your airline to see their engineering controls that are designed or put into practice to isolate hazards. These include ventilation systems, on-board barriers and electrostatic disinfectant sprays on flights.

When the ventilation system on planes is operating, planes have a very high ratio of outside fresh air to recirculated air about 10 times higher than most commercial buildings. Plus, most planes ventilation systems have HEPA filters. These are at least 99.9% effective at removing particles that are 0.3 microns in diameter and more efficient at removing both smaller and larger particles.

How to be safe from shuttle to seat

From checking in, to going through security to boarding, you will be touching many surfaces. To minimize risk:

If you are thinking about flying with kids, there are special considerations. Getting a young child to adhere to wearing a mask and maintaining good hygiene behaviors at home is hard enough; it may be impossible to do so when flying. Children under 2 should not wear a mask.

Each day, we are all constantly faced with decisions about our own personal comfort with risk. Arming yourself with specific knowledge about your airport and airline, and maximizing your use of protective measures that you have control over, can reduce your risk. A good analogy might be that every time you get in the car to drive somewhere there is risk of an accident, but there is a big difference between driving the speed limit with your seat belt on and driving blindfolded, 60 miles an hour through the middle of town.

License and Republishing

World Economic Forum articles may be republished in accordance with our Terms of Use.

Written by

Paloma Beamer, Associate Professor of Environmental Health Sciences, University of Arizona

Kacey Ernst, Associate Professor of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Arizona

This article is published in collaboration with The Conversation.

The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone and not the World Economic Forum.

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How to stay safe when flying, according to two experts - World Economic Forum

Human Behavior

Ahlquist: Let’s cut the divisiveness, put that energy toward recovery – Idaho Press-Tribune

We live in unprecedented times. COVID-19 has caused the world to reevaluate everything we know about preparation for infectious diseases.

We have been introduced to a whole new vernacular. Acronyms, words and phrases, previously unfamiliar are now part of our everyday lives: COVID, PCR, IgG, N95, NP swab, Fauci, Cluster, Antibody, Quarantine, Stay-At-Home Order, R0, and Crush the Curve.

Some phrases sounded great at first and then overtime lost steam like this one: Were all in this together.

America is the most incredible country in the history of the world. Built on freedoms and a constitution that is the envy of the world. Diversity is our strength. As COVID-19 marched across the globe, most of us could feel a sense of unity as we came together to fight for our communities, our families, and our future. I remember the first time someone said, Were all in this together. It resonated with me. It made me proud to lock arms with my fellow Americans and show the world just how strongly we could respond.

Unfortunately, that unity and optimism did not last long.

The truth is, were not all in this together. Because we were not prepared as a country for a pandemic. It became easier to blame someone than to work together for our people. Our country was already politically polarized and to add to the chaos, its an election year. We were primed for a complete political circus. Politicians have not disappointed. Finger pointing, denial, lies, and distractions dominate the airwaves as the average American fights for their livelihoods, always wondering what the next day will bring.

So what would were all in this together look like? It would start with clear communication. There is nothing that disrupts a plan faster than a lack of clarity. In a leadership vacuum, chaos reigns supreme and without clear direction, political agendas and conspiracy theories flourish, and they have.

So now its the end of May. In baseball terms, we are at the top of the 2nd inning, with much of the game yet to be played. So whats next?

George Bernard Shaw famously said, You see things; and you say, Why? But I dream things that never were; and I say Why not?

Here are some of my Why nots? for Idaho in the coming months.

Why not temper our political rhetoric and look for common ground to fight the real enemy COVID-19?

Now that some of us are back to work, why not take the divisiveness of the past and apply that energy to help Idaho stay at work?

Why not learn from countries who have successfully fought COVID-19 and implement similar strategies in Idaho?

Why not collaborate on testing, tracing, protocols, capacities, data, and solutions?

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Why not wear a mask, stay six feet apart, and cough in our sleeves?

Why not focus on those who are severely disadvantaged in this fight: the vulnerable, uninsured, working-class employees, the elderly, and those who speak English as a second language?

Why not work together to provide clarity with comprehensive messaging and then deliver on those messages?

Finally, why not prepare now for the fall? Lets spend this time to develop world-class response strategies to stay open and give our businesses the very best chance for a complete rebound.

During a crisis, the best and worst of human behavior is on full display. The speed and uncertainty of this pandemic will continue to expose our weaknesses and shortcomings, but it will also allow us to respond and accomplish things we never thought possible. Why not lead the nation?

I know the people of Idaho. I know the grit and determination that is part of our heritage. I know if any state in the Union can respond and thrive in a crisis, it is Idaho.

I ask you to join me today and commit to be part of the solution. Every individual, company and organization can play a role as we fight this disease and keep our economy rolling. Stand with me today and ask Why not?

Lets beat COVID-19 together.

Tommy Ahlquist, a former emergency room doctor, is the CEO of BVA Development and co-owner of Saltzer Health. He ran for governor as a Republican in 2018.

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Ahlquist: Let's cut the divisiveness, put that energy toward recovery - Idaho Press-Tribune

Human Behavior

CDC warns of aggressive cannibal rats facing shortage of garbage to eat – The Guardian

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has warned of unusual or aggressive behavior in American rats as a consequence of more than two months of human lockdown for city-dwelling rodents who now find themselves unable to dine out on restaurant waste, street garbage and other food sources.

Last month, according to the national health body, dumpster-diving rats were observed resorting to eating their young in the wake of urban shutdowns.

Community-wide closures have led to a decrease in food available to rodents, especially in dense commercial areas, the CDC said in recently updated rodent-control guidelines.

Some jurisdictions have reported an increase in rodent activity as rodents search for new sources of food. Environmental health and rodent control programs may see an increase in service requests related to rodents and reports of unusual or aggressive rodent behavior.

Elevated levels of rat aggression has been observed in New York, where there are increased reports of cannibalism and infanticide, and New Orleans, where unusual rat behavior was caught on CCTV.

I turn the corner, theres about 30 rats at the corner, feasting on something in the middle of the street, Bourbon street tour guide Charles Marsala told CBS News.

Complaints in Chicago have included reports of infestations in housing blocks as rodents seek new sources of food.

Some rodent experts predicted increased urban rat aggression.

Many of these rats in our cities depend on their nightly food, which is the restaurants and hotels and bars and doughnut shops and everything that we consume on the go, rodentologist Bobby Corrigan told The Washington Post.

The overall rat-to-human ratio is notoriously hard to gauge. A 1949 study determined the ratio was 36 humans to one rat in New York. The estimate was increased to one to one in the 1950s, and then dropped again to four humans to one rat.

The CDC noted that rodent population upheavals are common during natural disasters.

Preventive actions include sealing up access into homes and businesses, removing debris and heavy vegetation, keeping garbage in tightly covered bins, and removing pet and bird food from their yards, the CDC said.

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CDC warns of aggressive cannibal rats facing shortage of garbage to eat - The Guardian