Category Archives: Human Behavior

Human Behavior

Summer kicks off with tepid tourism, slow business in Summit County – Summit Daily News

FRISCO The past Memorial Day weekend was like no other before in Summit County. An invisible, microscopic menace managed to radically alter the course of human behavior all across the planet, even up in the mountains, where millions come every year to escape the perils of clustered, closed-in city life.

But that escapism was not enough to drum up business in Summit to levels seen during Memorial Day weekend last year, as a lack of clarity on guidelines and the economic crisis combined to punch a dent in travel and spending in the High Country.

Memorial Day weekend typically attracts tens of thousands of visitors to the mountains. According to the Colorado Department of Transportations twice-weekly COVID-19 traffic report, traffic volume going westbound through the Eisenhower Tunnel dropped by 25% this past weekend from Memorial Day weekend in 2019. Thats a drop from 159,201 vehicles passing over the Continental Divide into Summit County last year to 119,157 this year. It was the first drop in Memorial Day traffic through the tunnel in years and the lowest traffic volume since 1999.

One of the main tourist draws last weekend was the official opening of the Frisco and Dillon marinas, opening up Lake Dillon for boating, kayaking, stand-up paddleboarding and sunning on the beach. The marinas have implemented procedures to ensure physical distancing and guest safety, including cleaning and sanitizing gear between rentals and staggering boat launches to prevent crowding at the dock.

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Frisco Bay Marina Guest Services Coordinator Sophie Ferguson described business at the marina as down-ish so far this year, but said there had been a fairly consistent stream of rentals. She said she expected to get busier in the coming weeks once school is out and families can make day trips to the mountains.

The marina has an advantage for people because they can socialize while social distancing with the recreational sports on the lake and be out on the lake with their family away from crowds on land, Ferguson said.

Ferguson admitted the marina is a bit concerned about the possibility of huge crowds forming as summer goes on, but she said community service officers were standing by to advise and educate guests if they overstep bounds on physical distancing. So far, she said, the marina has not reported any issues or citations for noncompliance.

Ferguson added that, just like every year, the marina had sold out all of its slip rentals, indicating that boating still will be very popular this year. She added that the marina was starting to get a lot of reservations for the upcoming Fourth of July holiday and that she was really optimistic about business during the heart of summer.

Down the street, other summer businesses have been shaking off the pandemic cobwebs and getting back to more regular work.

Adam Karch manager of Rebel Sports, a bike and ski rental shop at Second and Main streets in Frisco said the cycling industry has benefited a bit from the zeal of visitors to get outside and recreate along Summits hundreds of miles of trails.

But Karch admitted that losing ski business from resort closures in March and April is still stinging quite a bit, given that the winter resort economy is so much bigger than in summer.

Summer business is off to a slow start for Rebel. With travel advisories and the restriction on how many people can travel on Rebels Vail Pass shuttle, the rental side of the business has been slow, while retail and service work has gone up as customers seek more solitary pursuits. The business is also focusing on adhering to physical distancing protocols, including closing off most of its retail space and placing plastic barriers between customers and staff, which makes for stranger, less personal interactions.

At the moment, Karch said it was still hard to know what June would bring as far as business, a sentiment shared among many business owners struggling to project revenue.

I think were just going to have to adapt like we have in the past couple of months, Karch said. Its hard to say what were going to see in the future, how much tourism were expected to have, and how thats going to affect business.

Across the street, outfitter Trouts Fly Fishing has been encouraging visitors to come up to Summit to safely pursue outdoor angling adventures along the Blue, Arkansas and Platte rivers.

But Regional Manager Zeke Hersh said that while retail sales are solid, he has seen half the business he usually does for guided trips a principal source of revenue for Trouts. He attributed the tour business hit to the pandemic travel advisories but also to the particular concerns of his most important customer demographic: people in their 50s and older who are most vulnerable to the virus and therefore less likely to leave their homes.

Hersh said the unique nature of his business best experienced with ample time during all-day or multiday fishing expeditions is also hurting from the short-term rental and lodging restrictions that have prevented visitors from staying in Summit overnight.

This is an activity that people come out here for a week to do, along with other activities such as rafting, but now they dont have a place to stay, Hersh said, adding that most of Trouts business has come from day-trippers from Denver who are able to go back home at night.

Hersh admitted it has been difficult to do business with such rapidly changing guidelines and rules, both preventing future business planning and confusing potential customers who might not be sure whether coming up to the mountains is a safe or appropriate thing to do.

The people just arent there, Hersh said, referring to the hordes of visitors who typically come to stay in Summit for a few days or weeks this time of year, walking up and down Main Street and popping in and out of shops. Theres still a lot of unknown. A good portion of the population as a whole are waiting to see what happens after two weeks, if theres another big influx of cases.

While summer recreation businesses are seeing mixed results, mom and pop retail in Summit has taken a gut shot. The drastically reduced foot traffic, mask requirements and general fear of the virus has taken a heavy toll on small retailers like Summit Gold Jewelry,which has sold custom-made jewelry, precious metals and stones in Frisco and Summit for more than three decades.

Proprietor Lyn Philips said the pandemic is the worst crisis her little gilded shop, right next door to Trouts, has ever faced.

Im dead, dead in the water, said Philips, a lifelong Summit local whose parents opened the shop. The ones who are coming in are really afraid, and I dont blame them. Theres a lot of fear out there.

She added that the physical distancing protocols, which she readily accepts as required to keep people safe, have made it hard for her to do business, considering the small square footage she has inside.

Given that its a jewelry business, Philips said trying to do business outside is not safe or feasible. And having the ability to have only one or two customers in at a time has been a huge blow, she said, as it disrupts the window and display shopping customers like to do at their leisure before purchasing an item.

Philips said she was having a particular issue with the mask requirement, now being enforced inside businesses by the town of Frisco. She said even with the masks provided by the town to local businesses, it has been a struggle with customers who refuse to wear masks, forcing her to turn them away or risk a heavy fine from the town and county, which she cannot afford.

Philips said that while she appreciated and needed the rental assistance from the town, it only covered her rent for May and June, and she did not know how she would be able to pay Julys rent if there is another month of dead business in town. She said she knows the federal government is still offering small business loans but that she was not willing to chance going into debt, especially given the lack of clarity on whether July would even turn a profit.

The swiftness with which the pandemic crushed her stores fortunes has devastated Philips, who is trying to keep her family business from being yet another casualty of COVID-19.

I was thriving one day, and two months put me out, Philips said. Its sad. Im still fighting, I still want to make it, but I dont know if Ill get through another month of this.

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Summer kicks off with tepid tourism, slow business in Summit County - Summit Daily News

Human Behavior

COVID-19 at the beach, lake, pool: Can the coronavirus live in water? – CNET

Check your state's restrictions before going to the lake or beach.

With the summer and warm weather approaching, many people are ready to pack up their beach bags and hit the pool. Beaches and lakes across the country were already flooded with people on Memorial Day weekend, even in areas where there's still a stay-at-home order (some recreational activity is allowed depending on where you live). But with the coronavirusactively spreading among the population, there's a concern busy beaches and public swimming pools could contribute to a second wave of the pandemic.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says the main way for the virus to spread is from an infected person to another person through respiratory droplets, which typically happens when they are within 6 feet of each other. So what does that mean for you -- can the virus survive in natural and human-made bodies of water and infect others?

Here's what we know about coronavirus and the water you swim in. This article provides an overview and isn't intended as medical advice. It updates frequently with new information drawn from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, state and county guidelines and experts in the medical community.

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While many public pools have decided to keep their door closed until further notice, others are opening this summer. The CDC says there's no evidence the coronavirus can spread to people through pool water and that proper cleaning with chlorine or bromine should inactivate the virus if it's in the water.

So why are pools remaining closed if there's no evidence of the virus spreading through the water? Because of human behavior. While the coronavirus may not spread easily through pool water, say if someone spits out a big mouthful they accidentally almost swallowed, it could still infect people in close range when heads are out of the water. For example, a group of people chatting in the shallow end, or playing a pool game may be more likely to acquire the virus from their companions' breath or saliva (e.g., through shouting to be heard at a noisy pool) than from the water itself.

In addition, pools, especially public ones, contain high-traffic areas and surfaces that are touched often, like the railing on the steps to get out of the pool or any doors to enter the premises. The principle ofsocial distancingis to keep people far enough away so someone who may not know they're infected doesn't pass the virus on to another person, or a group of people. Bathrooms, lunch lines, shady indoor areas and any place where people come in close proximity can increase your risk.

Keep your distance from others while swimming in a public pool.

Before you even think about going to the lake or beach, you need to see if the local or state restrictions have been lifted in your area. In many places, lakes and beaches are still closed to the public to help prevent the further spread of COVID-19. For example, many beaches in California are closed, while others are only open for active recreation following physical distancing guidelines -- which may be enforced by lifeguards or a beach patrol vehicle. This means hanging out to relax, grill or picnic won't be permitted, especially in large gatherings.

If the body of water near you is open and you're planning on going, it's best to limit your group to the members of your household.

CNET spoke with Andrew Janowski, an infectious diseases physician at Washington University. He said the water is safe as long as you social distance from those you're not typically in close contact with. He also said if someone who is sick with the coronavirus is in the water, they are unlikely to transmit it to others. He added, "the water will dilute out these secretions, making it much more difficult for a sufficient number of viral particles to come into contact with you."

While you may not know if another person swimming in the water is infected, it doesn't hurt to play it safe and keep your distance from others. Even if someone isn't showing symptoms, asymptomatic people can still transmit the coronavirus.

Experts say the volume of water in lakes and oceans will dilute the virus.

The understanding among experts is the coronavirus can spread more easily in enclosed, indoor areas where people are more likely to share the same air. That's the logic fueling the opening of curbside pickups and outdoor dining as some of the earlier phases of reopening.

Before agreeing to any boat plans with friends, first ask yourself these questions: Do they live with me? Are stay at home orders lifted in my area? Are small gatherings under 10 people allowed where I live?

If you answered no to any of these questions, it's safest to take a rain check on the invitation or keep the boat ride limited to the people in your household, if you're the one doing the inviting.

If you answered yes to these questions, ask yourself one more: Do I spend time with elderly people or anyone with a compromised immune system? Remember that staying healthy helps keep those around you healthy as well.

If you do go out on the water, use your best judgment and make sure you have enough equipment to make it easy for people to keep clean, and distant. Some general tips: Don't load your boat to the max with friends sitting shoulder to shoulder. Discourage reusable cups and the sharing of drinks ("Here, taste mine!"). Keep disinfectant wipes, soap and hand sanitizer handy. As an extra precaution, you could disinfect the surfaces when the passengers disembark.

The CDC recommends you wear a face mask or covering when social distancing is difficult. In this case, it could mean wearing a face mask when walking past a group of people to find an open spot to sit or while waiting in line at the restroom.

Some places, like LA County, require masks to be worn at the beach when out of the water. The CDC advises that you don't wear a mask when you're in the water because it makes it difficult to breathe when the mask is wet.

It's hard to say. Ask the facility or park how often the restrooms are cleaned. If it doesn't look like it has been cleaned in some time, you may feel more comfortable staying away. Wearing a face mask inside public restrooms is a smart precaution.

Also, make sure there's soap and running water, or that you have hand sanitizer ready. Use paper towels to dry your hands, if available, rather than a hand dryer that can blow particles in the air.

If there's a long line waiting to get in, stand at least 6 feet back from the person in front of you. Note that many public restrooms are remaining closed during this time.

In order to help keep yourself and others protected, we recommend following these guidelines.

While restrictions are loosening in many areas of the country, it's important that you know how to help keep yourself protected. Here are 16 tips to help you avoid the coronavirus when you go out in public, what we know about how long the coronavirus will last and if there will be a second wave and what to do if you think you or someone you live with is infected with the coronavirus.

The information contained in this article is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as health or medical advice. Always consult a physician or other qualified health provider regarding any questions you may have about a medical condition or health objectives.

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COVID-19 at the beach, lake, pool: Can the coronavirus live in water? - CNET

Human Behavior

Notes on Notes On a Conditional Form The Spectator – The Spectator

22 tracks, one album. The 1975 went over the top for their newest release, Notes On a Conditional Form, and the album proves that you cannot label them under one genre, with surprises that make you wonder how they were the ones that made emo kids go crazy back in the early 2010s. They toy with different sounds, wavering from nostalgic 90s rock, to electronic, to pop, to really whatever sound they want. The new album is a demonstration of maturity and experimentation and, of course, the freedom of an artist being able to use their medium to create the type of art they want to create.

The whole album is centered around human behavior, no matter the sound. Each song explores the human condition in different situations, visiting more vulnerable ones that the group touched on in their third album, A Brief Inquiry Into Online Relationships, such as politics, relationships and living with yourself.

The album starts out with a classic, The 1975, which has been reinvented to open their previous three albums. The song typically begins each The 1975 project using the same lyric, but uses different sounds to introduce the aesthetic of the album. However, this album does not play by the rules. The 1975 intro track actually samples a speech about climate change from Swedish activist Greta Thunberg.

Following the intro track, the album immediately dives into the heavy rock song, People, a totally unique punk sound for the group. People is a call for action to do something to make life better, so for the band to have Thunberg introduce the track makes the song that much more powerful.

The album then turns into a softer, more reflective tone, sometimes using ethereal sounding instrumental songs for transitions. In fact, the album has three solely instrumental songs, but this album places more focus on the musical arrangement aspect than the lyrics. In some songs, like Shiny Collarbone, looped sounds and minimal lyrics allow the listener to drift and think. It holds your attention, but it never pulls you in too deep. The next track, If Youre Too Shy (Let Me Know), turns around and brings you back.

Of course, I have to mention the nostalgia-inducing Me & You Together Song and Then Before She Goes,which are both songs about seemingly loving someone deeply, maybe more than the other person feels. I can picture a coming-of- age movie about teenage friends falling in love or an unrequited love.

Matty Healy, the lead singer of the group, has been vocal about his past with heroin addiction. After the release of their second album, he went to rehab to receive treatment. Since rehab, he has stayed clean, and this album is a closer look at his life and how he recovered. In the song The Birthday Party, Healy sings that he depends on his friends to stay clean. Healy is incredibly thankful for his friends, and Guys, the last song on the album, is dedicated to his friendsspecifically his bandmates. The song is a sweet look at the love Healy has for his bandmates, the ones who help him and who have always been there for him.

There is a song for anybody on this album. If you want to feel angry at the world, check out People. If you want to dance, there is If Youre Too Shy. If you want to reflect and contemplate, Playing on My Mind will help you out.

Overall, the album is definitely different from anything they have previously done. It ties in elements from the other three albums, even lyrically there is a nice little call back to Robbers from their first album in Roadkill. Though it felt like there was a lot of jumping around considering the different sounds throughout the album, they made it work.

For longtime fans, it just makes sense. They transport you from place to place rather than staying in one mindset the whole album, but that is what the human condition is, so its only right.Humans are not static beings; they have emotions and go through different experiences. This record is the perfect demonstration of the fact that life doesnt always go with the flow, and there are disruptions that throw us off track.

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Notes on Notes On a Conditional Form The Spectator - The Spectator

Human Behavior

Unsilenced, unapologetic, and unstoppable | Opinion | herald-zeitung.com – Herald Zeitung

As an inquisitive young girl growing up in the deep south, my endless questions about life were often stifled or ignored. Examples: Why cant I drink from a colored water fountain? Why do men have one title, Mr., and women have two titles, Miss or Mrs.? Why does a woman change her name when she marries?

My need for understanding these social norms was only satisfied by looking closely at the subtleties of everyday living and researching the history of human behavior.

The Civil Rights Movement and Womens Movement peaked in the l960s and 1970s.

When the first issue of Ms. Magazine was published in 1972, I felt I had finally found honest, concrete and rational answers. In particular, the title Ms. became an equalizer with Mr., a beginning in the drive to de-emphasize the marital status of women. The issue of titles personally surfaced when I was working as a traveling court reporter in 1975. On my first travel voucher, I noticed the blocks next to the signature line had two choices Miss or Mrs. so I drew in another block and added Ms.

When I handed the voucher to the presiding judge, he looked up over his glasses, and yelled What is this? I answered that it was my travel voucher which required his signature. Again, he shouted, I will not sign this, I dont want the folks in Atlanta thinkin Im a Womens Libba. I answered Sir, would you be willing to put that in writing? He threw the paper down on his desk, signed it, and told me to get out of his office, at which time I thanked him with a mocking smile.

Judith Kovacs-Long, an assertive member of my generation who has a strong grip on effective communication, tells about working on a committee in the 1980s and being assigned to a work group. The man in charge told her she would be the chairman of that committee, to which she replied I will be the chairperson, chair or committee head, but I will not be chairman.

He indignantly responded, What difference does it make what you are called? Its the job you do that counts! to which she replied, Fine, Ill be chairman of my committee if you will be chairwoman of yours.

Historically, the answer to discrimination against women lies in an ancient injustice that kept 50% of the population legally, morally and physically under the control of the other half.

In Britain in the 18th and 19th centuries, women had no rights and were considered property. Wife sales were technically against the law but popular, nevertheless. The unwanted woman was led to market in her Sunday best with a rope around her neck and auctioned off. Women in the United States started the fight for equality in 1848, when suffragists lobbied Congress to pass an amendment to enfranchise women. The movement for equality grew and protests were rampant due to inaction by the government.

Women who publicly protested discrimination were beaten, raped, slashed on their breasts and face to disfigure their femininity, and imprisoned.

Female prisoners who went on hunger strikes were held down and force fed through large tubes driven through their nostrils or mouth, leaving them with chronic injuries and permanent disabilities.

These cruelties were painful, degrading and left a moral stain on US history. The fight for freedom became even stronger and women could not be stopped even though it meant physical suffering, loss of income and mental anguish. This onslaught of passion for freedom eventually resulted in many laws that transformed the lives of women: the right to vote, 1918; the right to file for divorce, 1937; the right to contraception for married women, 1965; the right to equal pay, 1970; the right to contraception for single women, 1972; the right to abortion, 1973; the deeming of marital rape to be unlawful, 1991; the right of same sex adoption, 2002, and the right of shared parental leave, 2015.

Culturally we still have a long way to go for women to see a genuine gender balance, but a pink wave is on the horizon for 2020. In the 116th Congress, women currently make up nearly one quarter of the chamber.

The House includes 101 women out of 435 total representatives. The 100-member Senate currently has 26 female senators. Out of 193 UN countries, the United States ranks 106th on political gender parity.

Locally, the Democratic Women of Comal County is a large group of thoughtful, progressive women who continue the fight for equality and social justice who celebrate the power of women by supporting and uplifting each other, and who uphold Democratic values. We strive to be the heroines of our own lives, recognizing that our self-worth is defined by strength of character. This year, we are especially proud of local women who are candidates for office: Stephanie Phillips (Texas House 73), Collette Nies (County Commissioner, Precinct 3), and Lindsay Poisel (County Commissioner, Precinct 1).

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Unsilenced, unapologetic, and unstoppable | Opinion | herald-zeitung.com - Herald Zeitung

Human Behavior

It’s Also Important to Focus on The Other Three Police Officers Who Didn’t Stop Derek Chauvin – Blue Virginia

See below for a superb public Facebook post by Karen Gautney who now lives in Vermont, but who used to live in Alexandria, where she ran for the Democratic nomination for Virginia House of Delegates in 2012 that is well worth reading and absorbing fully. Gautney encouraged us to share this if you think it may resonate with others and I definitely do. Ive added some bolding for emphasis, but really, this entire post is well worth reading.

THE OTHER THREE. Im glad Derek Chauvin was arrested and I hope hes convicted. Im angry that George Floyd joins a long list of black Americans killed by excessive police force. From the beginning, by thoughts have focused on the other three officersthe two who were also kneeling on Mr. Floyd, and the one we saw standing near his head as he begged for relief, then died.

Ive studied human systems, organizational culture and human behavior from different angles, including the criminal justice system, for decades. Ive watched as my friends struggle to find the one thing. the reason this happened, the key to fixing this, the perfect thing to say, the people to blame (sometimes turning on each other, sadly). But racism and police misconduct, and the confluence of the two, isnt new and it wont change easily no matter how intense our Facebook rage becomes.

My opinionand this is my opinion and your different opinion doesnt mean someone is wrong, by the wayis that the key to change rests in the other three. The bystanding officers are the culture. I dont mean the broader culture, but the culture among Chauvins immediate colleagues. He knew he could count on them to support his behavior and he was right. He had known for years.

No matter how good an officers training, no matter how many speeches they hear from the higher ups, when s/he hits the streets s/he learns about the true culture among his/her peers that either tolerates or disallows abusive and discriminatory behavior. The culture is different from agency to agency, and can differ among divisions and squads within agencies. The signals are comments, facial expressions, micro aggressions, respect extended or withheld. Officers may observe a minor infraction that the perp had coming, which a supervisor and/or colleagues ignored, perhaps even congratulated the offending officer. There are myriad messages of us against them, that its okay to bend the rules or be a little extra with certain bad folks. After all, we are the good guys. We dont take their shit. And above all, we stick together. I got your back if youve got mine.

Ive been in situations where a suspect pushed my buttons, disrespected my authority, aroused my anger, and I wanted nothing more than to put that jerk in his place. LEOs are human. (So are you, and Ive seen a few folks get so amped up on Facebook that I have to wonder how they would act in an in-person encounter!) When challenged we use, sometimes over-use, and sometimes even abuse whatever authority or privilege we have to get back on top. Most of us have the ability to self calm and remain professional, and bless the thousands of officers who do this every damn day. But its not just our own voice in our head at that critical moment. We know how far we can go without getting in trouble, how far we can go and still have the support of our peers. If peers are joining in, thumbs upping, high five-ing or merely standing by, we are emboldened. Most of us will not go beyond what our culture will support.

In the murder of George Floyd there were at least three officers who could have stopped it. Okay, thats enough. A hand on his shoulder. You got him; take a lap and well get him in the car. Ease up, Derek. Tap out, man, move your knee right now! Forcefully pulling him off, if needed. But none of that happened. There are lots of great police officers, but if a great one was there, he didnt step up. The culture was known and then each officer, in his own way, helped Chauvin kill Floyd. You think you would have done something to stop it if youd been there, if you were one of the other three. I think I would have, too. But my point is that its not just the facts of this killing that we need to examine, but the culture among that group of officers in the days, months and years leading up to it.

Ive been thinking of all of the small system cultures we participate inthe culture in our immediate family, extended family, at work, at worship, the neighborhood, interest groups we join, political groups with which we associate, even your Facebook friend list. I dont think anyone reading this will identify with Chauvin. We are the other three. And while few of us are engaged in life or death physical encounters, we contribute everyday to cultures that support or disallow maltreatment of people we perceive as bad. While we may not find ourselves in an arrest situation, or a life or death encounter, we regularly engage in experiences or discussions where we are good and they are bad. How do we talk about the others? What signals do we send about what we will tolerate? Do we model restraint or even kindness when we disagree with someone, when we are challenged? Do we demonize and name call, or make others the butt of our jokes? Can we walk away without winning a social media argument? The way we behave when tensions are high is important, but we cannot ignore that our behavior leading up to that moment creates the culture that prevails when emotion is ignited. I think we can do better. I know I can.

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It's Also Important to Focus on The Other Three Police Officers Who Didn't Stop Derek Chauvin - Blue Virginia

Human Behavior

Cyr: On life and disease … and fear – Stephenville Empire-Tribune

The media COVID-19 focus continues, even as we begin to reopen and return to a more normal existence. To provide context, media talking heads often mention the devastating Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918.

The reference ignores health challenges over the intervening decades. This is strikingly similar to superficial discussion of the international financial crisis of 2007-2008, often described as the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

In both the economic crash of a decade ago and the current public health challenges, descriptions of the past often ignore important developments between the earlier time cited and the present. That is revealing.

Consider the decades between the onset of the Great Depression and the financial crash early in the current century, which resulted from casino-capitalism style speculation. In the 1970s, a destructive threat faced the international economy - stagflation, meaning high inflation combined with high unemployment. Earlier, professional economists especially in the academic world had confidently predicted this devastating combination could not occur.

A belief based on the Phillips Curve, which indicated historically there was a direct tradeoff between inflation and unemployment, turned out to be mistaken regarding future developments. Once again, as through history, collective human behavior undermined assumptions based on selective evidence drawn from the relatively recent past.

During the 1960s, rapidly escalating U.S. federal spending and fiscal deficits brought on the curse of relentlessly rising prices, and the OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) oil embargo and extreme price increases of 1973 and 1979 fueled the financial flames. High and rising unemployment failed to provide the sort of relief expected by acolytes of the Phillips Curve.

High oil costs rapidly spread through other parts of the economies of industrialized nations generally, and growth stagnated. This continued through the decade. Paul Volcker, nominated by President Jimmy Carter to head the Federal Reserve Board, finally broke the back of the inflation beast with restrictive monetary policy and high interest rates. Significant strong economic growth followed.

Before the stagflation decade, flu pandemics plagued the United States and many other nations.

During 1957-1958, the Asian Flu was a major public health problem. The pandemic originated in China, as the misnamed Spanish Flu of 1918 probably did as well.

The Hong Kong flu came to the United States in September 1968 and spread rapidly. Troops returning home from service in the Vietnam War in Southeast Asia introduced the virus.

President Lyndon B. Johnson was among the many who became severely ill as a result.

Approximately 100,000 Americans and an estimated one million people worldwide died from the Hong Kong flu. This was far less than the estimated 675,000 Americans and 50 million people worldwide who perished from the 1918 flu.

The 1968-1969 U.S. flu illness and death rates were roughly comparable to what is occurring now. Mercifully, young people appear to be relatively immune to COVID-19. That was not the case with these earlier pandemics.

Yet there were no mass isolations, government restrictions or media obsessions. People generally viewed disease as a part of life. The scourge of polio, which devastated children, was only defeated in 1955 with the Salk vaccine. The last case of smallpox in the U.S. was in 1949.

The good news is collectively we are so secure that anything less is a shock. The bad news is that we are extremely vulnerable to fear.

Fear can kill an individual, institutions and eventually a society.

Arthur I. Cyr is Clausen Distinguished Professor at Carthage College and author of After the Cold War (NYU Press and Macmillan). Contact acyr@carthage.edu.

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Cyr: On life and disease ... and fear - Stephenville Empire-Tribune

Human Behavior

Prop-Handling Rules? Trombone-Free Zones? A COVID Theater Think Tank Convenes to Plan Ahead – Vulture

That ventilation system needs rethinking. Photo: Kozlik_Mozlik/Getty Images/iStockphoto

In the theater (as in most other businesses), everyone is desperate to know: When do we reopen? Broadway hasnt announced anything official, though the Broadway Leagues Charlotte St. Martin has hinted that most productions wont be up again until next year. Off Broadway and regional theaters have started sketching out seasons all of them far off even though state authorities might keep them closed. Every decision seems to be made on shifting sand, with confusion over best practices, union buy-in, and government permissions all making the ground unsteady. There has also historically been a big communication gap between Broadway and everywhere else even though commercial and nonprofit theaters share a knowledge base and constituency, they are rarely in consistent contact. So Matt Ross, a producer and publicist who works both downtown and uptown, put together a task force to get them into conversation. The COVID-19 Theatre Think-Tank (CTT) deliberately draws from as many of theater-making corners as possible, from stage managers to directors, from the Great White Way to regional theaters. Since March, the group has been in talks with public-health officials, pooling knowledge and letting epidemiology experts steer the conversation about what a post-shutdown theater might look like. Ross and one of the first additions to the group, Hadestown director Rachel Chavkin, spoke to me about the think tank and what it hopes to achieve.

Helen Shaw: How did the group get going?

Rachel Chavkin: Matt felt that a lot of people in our industry are very understandably focused on when, but that he was really interested in thinking deeper about how with a smart group of people from all across the industry. And so this is a real mixture of regional and Off Broadway and Broadway workers. Theres, of course, a huge number of groups led by unions, also those led by the Broadway League. But what wasnt happening as much was people talking across all the different worlds.

So Matt reached out to me and asked if I was interested in joining this group colleagues I really respected and its a group of about 25. At the first meeting, we decided we needed to talk with some people in public health, and we needed some legal advice. I ended up contacting my mother [Ed.: Chavkins mother, Sara Rosenbaum, is the founding chair of the Department of Health Policy at George Washington University], and the dean of the CUNY School of Public Health, Dr. Ayman El-Mohandes, is a longtime friend and colleague of hers. She thought he might be interested in the sort of questions that we were contemplating.

Matt Ross: It all started right around the time Governor Cuomo was starting to shift from triage talk to reopening phases. He wanted companies and industries to be thinking up plans and coming up with solutions and bringing those to the government having those ready to go. The idea was taking that cue from Cuomo and saying our industry has a particular set of challenges we need to figure out. We need to really engage with public-health officials, not to dictate any sort of policy, but to figure out what those parameters are, what those risks are, and how we can mitigate them.

R.C.: We split into subgroups some folks thinking about workplace safety, others thinking about front of house and audience. Theres also Organization and Economics, which has a lot of people from different nonprofit institutions. On his end, Ayman gathered an incredible group he sent us the list of primarily doctors who we were going to be speaking with, and it was like Charlies Angels expert after expert whose bio sort of blew us away.

M.R.: Theyre like the public-health Avengers.

What surprised you in those early talks with the epidemiologists?

M.R.: The purely scientific perspective: They take a step back, and they look at the science not whats trending and all of that. Where were like The vaccine is everything and of course a vaccine could be huge they actually laid out for us a handful of different situations under which social distancing can be relaxed. They made me feel that treatment is equally or maybe more important. Also, we still talk about when this is over, though thats not a great way to think about it. Talking to [the experts] takes away the romantic notion of everything returns to normal, but it does it allow us to think about where we can be productive and move forward. Mitigation comes up over and over again, and that has resonated for me. It takes it from something that is overwhelming us overwhelming fatalities, overwhelming severity of illness, overwhelming contagion and turns it into something that can come down through several different efforts. Only six weeks ago we decided completely as a society that civilians wearing masks made no sense, and now were finding the complete opposite, so you know it also just shows how quickly the science is moving and how much it can still continue to move.

R.C.: Masks also point to how incredible people are at adapting. Our industry presents some very specific challenges in terms of physical intimacy, and I dont just mean kissing onstage; I mean the proximity of backstage and dressing rooms and the way we share props. The public-health folks have really underscored that its also about audience anxiety. Public health is ultimately where medical science meets human behavior, so public health is really concerned with how public communication shapes anxiety or comfort. At the end of the day, its the science of storytelling, specifically when it comes to how we are in public spaces together. Thats something CUNY folks have returned to again and again that its both about what we need to do on our end in terms of risk mitigation, but its also about communicating to our audiences that we are in control of our space.

M.R.: Sometimes when were talking to the experts, well be kind of floored but then well look back at it and realize they didnt actually tell us anything we didnt already know, but because they communicated in a really specific, concise, and clear way, it felt empowering. Thats a good learning experience: Its not about good news or bad news; its about the power of information and feeling like you have a grip on whats going on, even if whats going on is difficult.

Preparing to return to work at Hudson Scenic, a big Broadway shop. Photo: Courtesy of Neil Mazzella

R.C.: We can take the time to be thinking about airflow studies, and were talking with the CUNY folks about time-and-motion studies that analyze the activity of a backstage. Thats going to be overlaid with testing coming more and more online, which is going to be overlaid with less of the virus out and about, which means obviously fewer transmissions. Its all very interwoven.

M.R.: There are studies going on around the world some are choir studies, which I think have been more public, and also some studies of what happens when you blow through an instrument. I believe one just came back about particles expelled from the end of brass instruments, and it was not what they expected! It was far less than they thought. Something theater does extraordinarily well is track both onstage and offstage choreography, so we have the tool kit ready to go. Our industry has amazing PSMs [production stage managers] and production supervisors and technical directors and running crews, and so we can actually look at how people move. We obviously dont have the power to open or close theaters, but we can provide tools. Our goal [as a think tank] is to be a resource for our industry.

R.C.: And to be clear, theres a number of different groups that we know of doing this kind of work like Diane Paulus and A.R.T., for instance.

Right now, if someone says, Okay, I want to use them as a resource, what are you providing?

M.R.: Because anyone who works in theater can tell you each backstage is different, theres going to be unique analysis required for each space. So right now, if someone were to approach us, what we can offer now is to become one of those early test cases, to run an air-flow study, to run a time-and-motion study. Findings about how air moves through a theater will help people who need to look at their HVAC system, for instance.

So are you going to do an airflow study on a specific theater and then release the results?

R.C.: Ultimately, its going to take money, right? And weve been working in an advisory capacity with the CUNY folks for some time, and were beginning to move to the stage where now actually we need funding, whether thats in the form of a grant or what. Weve begun talking about whether thats pursuing support from the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, which is one of the most important foundations supporting public-health studies in the country, or whether thats funding from the NEA, since ultimately these studies are going to hopefully be of use field-wide. Were going to be mounting asks. And I know Westport Country Playhouse is doing a deep look at their HVAC systems. So, again, I dont think were unique. We are a group of allies working among other groups of allies, ultimately focused on the same goal of keeping our workers safe.

How do people learn about your findings?

R.C.: Its a small industry, and so people should email Matt!

M.R.: I would completely agree, and I would be thrilled to engage with anyone who wants of discuss it.

R.C.: What I think is helpful now about our group to other people who are trying to problem solve is actually the basic model of reaching out to a school of public health in your area. Again, Im not claiming that we are singular. I know decisions are not being made in ignorance.

Some theaters have talked about opening in March 2021, and certainly there have been a lot of people saying theaters will reopen in January. The Broadway League announced that refunds are being offered through September 6. Yet those dates are never attached to any reasoning. If public health is 50 percent public communication, are there any recommendations you would make about transparency? About linking season announcements to explicit contact with public-health experts?

R.C.: I dont want to make a recommendation. I would say I was really impressed and moved by how the Guthrie handled its announcement. I felt it was delivered by a human storyteller in the form of the incredibly sensitive Joe Haj; it was linked to poetry, and I felt that he spoke to his listeners as adults. I would point to that as like a model and high point. I think about our current [federal] administration and a lack of information that I am sure is grounded in maybe not wanting to scare people, but again I think that people have to be informed. Thats my personal answer to the question, and I am not speaking for anyone else its important to say Im not speaking for my union, which I serve in an official capacity.

M.R.: Admitting what we dont know can also be a powerful thing. Im quoting a doctor when I say, We dont make the timeline; the virus makes the timeline. So when people are in a position where they need to announce some sort of date, its a challenging thing to do.

R.C.: Our field is a thoughtful field. That question you asked about what has been surprising: One of the first things Ayman said to us, which has really stuck with me, is, We are a very optimistic society, so we dont know how to deal with sadness. Western societies dont know how to grieve. There needs to be both space for grief, and we need to see our federal government meet the very particular needs of the live-entertainment industry because it is a billions-of-dollars-generating industry. We generate culture! We generate gravitational poles that restaurants want to be built in and parking garages need to serve and M&M stores want to open up nearby. I have been dismayed by how hard our industry has had to fight to get included in the different CARES legislation. But we are workers. We are American workers.

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Prop-Handling Rules? Trombone-Free Zones? A COVID Theater Think Tank Convenes to Plan Ahead - Vulture

Human Behavior

Tomorrow is good: Is this the new normal? – Innovation Origins

At one of the press conferences on corona held by the Dutch Prime Minister Rutte, I heard him say we must now decide for 100 % with only 50 % of the information. He has repeated that oneliner many times since then. There is indeed still so much unknown about the coronavirus or about which measures are working and which ones arent. But this also applies to all manner of other things, doesnt it? Perhaps we should acknowledge complexity as the new normal? Even within our own lives. That calls for a new virtue for our national character: a degree of humility.

Corona allows us to experience at first hand how vulnerable our society as a whole is. People get sick and die. All over the world. Healthcare is overstretched and we have lost many of our freedoms in a single stroke. We are not allowed to visit our grandparents, our mothers and fathers, we have to work from home and we have to keep our distance from each other. So, no arm around someones shoulder to comfort them. The corona measures affect us all. However, some people are more affected by the virus and the measures than others. Such as homeless people, those with psychiatric illnesses or learning disabilities, the elderly, and workers who have flex contracts. Corona is a huge crisis that involves making far-reaching decisions while not all of the information is readily available, as Rutte rightly points out.

To date, there seems to be a lot of understanding for Ruttes position. After all, a lot is unclear at the moment. But what does Rutte actually mean when he says 100 % of the information? Is he referring to the lack of information concerning the effects of the new measures? Or does he mean a lack of clarity about the virus itself? Or both?

I would contend that in our complex society we very often have to deal with decisions based on less than 100% of available information. This applies to both the (social) issue at hand that should be addressed and the effects of any associated measures. Social issues are invariably complex by definition, given that many variables play a role. Moreover, the effects of a policy often depend on peoples compliance with stipulated measures. Yet it is precisely human behavior that is difficult to predict in advance. It is often only with the benefit of hindsight that it can be determined whether the aims have been reached.

It is therefore high time for us to accept that the lack of 100 % of the information is very often the case. Not only does it apply to the corona crisis but also to other major and minor decisions.

Complexity and the lack of 100 % of the information of course not only applies to situations that policymakers have to deal with, but also to all kinds of situations in our own everyday lives. We often give our own opinion, about anything and everything, without ever having 100 percent of the information. Perhaps that might not always be necessary. However, being well-informed on some level before we make up our minds, and gauging each others opinions on that basis, does make coexistence a little more pleasant.

Back to the corona crisis for a moment, it sometimes seems as if we have hundreds of thousands of virologists all around us, who are unimpeded by any proper knowledge, who all have an opinion on the virus and the effects of the measures and subsequently take each other to task. So, perhaps we could learn a few lessons from this crisis when it comes to our own future actions?

As a first step, it helps if we recognize that lots of things, even everyday things, are quite complex and that you dont have all the relevant information at your disposal in many situations. This realization helps tremendously but does not directly lead to other behavior. There is more to it than that.

Im all for adding a new virtue to our Dutch national character, namely a degree of humility. Just ask our Southern neighbors. There they can tell you that this is really not a core quality of Dutch people; we are known there as folk whove got a big mouth always first in line and cock of the roost.

We all know examples of people around us who this applies to. People who would be better off lowering their tone for a change. We hear them holding forth at family gatherings and we see them pass by on social media. Examples galore.

But could this possibly apply to yourself as well? If I take a good look at myself, I would dare answer that question with a full-on yes for 100% even though I might only have 50% of the information Making the world a better place starts with yourself.

In a weekly column, alternately written by Hans Helsloot, Eveline van Zeeland, Jan Wouters, Katleen Gabriels, Mary Fiers, Peter de Kock, Tessie Hartjes and Auke Hoekstra, Innovation Origins tries to find out what the future will look like. These columnists, occasionally supplemented with guest bloggers, are all working in their own way on solutions for the problems of our time. So tomorrow will be good. Here are all the previous IO columns in this series.

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Tomorrow is good: Is this the new normal? - Innovation Origins

Human Behavior

Rise of remote working is ‘biggest threat to oil demand,’ says analyst – CNBC

Will Cautero prepares to teach his 11th grade English class to Las Lomas High School students remotely from his home in Oakland, Calif. on Thursday, April 16, 2020.

Paul Chinn | The San Francisco Chronicle via Getty Images

Working from home has become the norm, and if the trend continues even after the pandemic abates, it could pose a big risk for oil, analysts are warning.

"The biggest threat to oil demand is the rise of remote working," Bernstein said in a recent note to clients. "A decrease in commuting and business air travel is clearly negative for oil demand."

Gasoline represents a sizable portion of overall oil demand within each barrel of refined crude about 45% is used for gasoline and, according to RBC,about 28% of gasoline demand in the U.S. is from people driving to and from work.

Oil prices are, of course, driven by supply and demand dynamics, so a change on one side of the equation can send prices into a tailspin.

Oil took a hit in April as billions of people around the world were subjected to some form of lockdown measures in an effort to slow the spread of Covid-19. With air and road travel coming to a virtual standstill, oil demand fell off a cliff. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. oil benchmark, plunged below zero and into negative territory for the first time on record since no one wanted to take physical delivery of crude with demand expected to remain depressed.

Now, WTI is on track for its best month ever as economies have started to reopen, and as producers have announced record output cuts.

But demand might not ever fully recover. Twitter and Shopfiy are among the companies that have announced permanent work-from-home options, and more companies are expected to follow suit.

"Pretty much every company out there with a sizable commercial real estate footprint is thinking about this now," said Dan Klein, head of scenario planning at S&P Global Platts. "While it's probably too early to tell how prevalent this structural shift in working from home will become after the restrictions are lifted, it's clear that a certain percentage of workers will never go back to commuting, at least every day," he added. The firm believes between 1 million barrels per day and 1.5 million bpd will be permanently lost.

A man wearing a protective mask crosses an empty street during the coronavirus pandemic on May 18, 2020 in New York City.

Cindy Ord | Getty Images

Prior to the outbreak of Covid-19, worldwide demand stood at roughly 100 million bpd, according to the International Energy Agency.

Klein said an even bigger risk could be the impact on business air travel, especially over the longer-term, as employees get used to using Zoom, Skype and Microsoft Teams. "Right now you're challenging that notion that business travel is the cost of doing business," he said, noting that the demand hit could be 1.5 million bpd to 2 million bpd.

Raymond James added that heightened unemployment as well as online education will also eat away at demand. "We assume that vehicle fuel consumption in 2021 will be impacted by 1.6 million bpd versus pre-COVID levels, all else held constant, with the impact decreasing to 400,000 bpd in 2022." When it comes to jet fuel consumption, the firm believes a slowdown in business travel will mean 2 million bpd of demand loss in 2021, before recovering slightly to 800,000 bpd in 2022.

To be sure, all forecasts come with the caveat that it's still early to determine the potential long-lasting impacts. The coronavirus led to unprecedented demand loss between one fourth and one third of overall demand by many estimates but the announced production cuts have also been unprecedented. With so many moving parts, it's difficult to forecast how human behavior will change.

Some behavioral changes could also be supportive for oil prices. People might be wary of taking public transport which could lead to a boost in driving, for instance, while low gas prices could slow the adoption of electric vehicles. Oil demand is also highly sensitive to the overall economic backdrop so a slowdown in trade and shipping, for example, will also contribute to demand loss.

In its closely-watched monthly report released earlier in May, the IEA said it expects demand to fall by 8.6 million bpd to 91.2 million bpd for the year. This would be the biggest demand drop in history, although it's slightly more optimistic than the agency's prior forecast of a 9.3 million bpd loss.

While estimates vary as to when the world will reach peak oil, the consensus is that we are heading in that direction. And if more and more people shift to remote work, it could accelerate this change.

"If you take this amount of demand loss on top of that trending lower demand already, it makes it all the more steep," Klein said.

- CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed reporting.

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Rise of remote working is 'biggest threat to oil demand,' says analyst - CNBC

Human Behavior

There Are 3 Things We Have to Do to Get People Wearing Masks – The New York Times

Hong Kong has so far reported a grand total of four coronavirus-related deaths, while New York City has reported over 20,000.

Heres another striking comparison: Close to 99 percent of Hong Kong residents have been wearing masks, to prevent the wearer from spreading the virus, since early February. According to a mid-April Gallup poll, only a third of Americans say they always wear a mask or cloth face covering outside the home. Another third of us sometimes wear a mask in public, and a third never do.

Universal face mask adoption isnt the only difference between Hong Kong and the United States, and its not a substitute for physical-distancing, hand-washing and other preventive practices. But masks even just a scarf, bandanna or an old T-shirt and two rubber bands are widely viewed as critical to stopping the transmission of the novel coronavirus.

Nevertheless, face-mask compliance on this side of the Pacific has been uneven. This is especially worrisome in closed, crowded spaces like subways and buses, grocery stores and offices where its not easy to maintain a distance of six feet from other people and avoid spontaneous coughs and sneezes.

The most obvious path to universal masking is to pass laws and punish infractions. But enforcing legal edicts to wear masks in public can be difficult and costly, and amid widespread ambivalence can lead to backlash and even violence. So edicts are not a complete solution.

As experts in public health and human behavior, we propose a complementary approach: Make wearing a mask easy, understood and expected.

From effortful to easy: Where can you get face masks? You can search for them online, you can now buy them in drugstores and yes, you can make them yourself. But none of these options are effortless.

Imagine if every city and town in this country had an Adrian Cheng, the real estate developer in Hong Kong who had a manufacturing line set up in one of his empty properties and made the masks available free to the needy in vending machines devised specifically for the purpose. Not long after, the Hong Kong government set up a website where any household can register to have reusable masks delivered free. Or consider Utah, where residents can likewise register online and receive a free fabric face mask by mail. The cheaper and more ubiquitous face masks are, the easier it will be for Americans to get our hands on them, and the more likely well do so and wear them.

From unclear to understood: Not long ago, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the surgeon general were lecturing the American public on why they shouldnt wear face masks. That recommendation flipped once it became clear that people infected with the coronavirus can spread it before they know they have it and, therefore, everyone should wear a mask to reduce the chances of infecting others. Since its hard for people to update their beliefs once a message has been received, its no surprise that misinformation and outdated news continue to ricochet in the echo chambers of social media.

Unfortunately, it is often easier to dig our heels in than to change our minds, defending our original position and discounting new information to justify our behavior. Therefore, it can be helpful to supply people with a rationale to change their behavior without looking like a hypocrite. For example, officials can emphasize that at the start of this crisis, nobody could have known how important it is to wear a mask when you have no symptoms, and that day by day, new scientific evidence is demonstrating the efficacy of masks in the fight against the coronavirus.

From unconventional to expected: It is human nature to adhere to social norms. When uncertain about what to do, people tend to look around and copy what other people are doing. For instance, if you were in Hong Kong right now, even if you werent up to date on the public health imperative, youd very likely follow the lead of everyone around you and put one on.

How do we create a social norm of mask-wearing when, in fact, so many Americans are doing exactly the opposite? One common mistake is drawing attention to the lack of compliance. For instance, highlighting littering as a commonplace problem can inadvertently lead to more littering because it strengthens the perception that littering is the norm. Instead, in press releases and public service announcements, officials should emphasize that the clear trend in this country is toward universal mask-wearing.

According to a recent Qualtrics study, a majority of surveyed Americans now say they wont return to the office unless their company makes wearing face masks mandatory. And in just one week in April, the percentage of Americans who said they wore a mask outside the home increased by more than half.

The story of face masks in this country is still being written. We may lack the wisdom Hong Kong earned weathering prior epidemics, but its not too late to apply three basic principles from behavioral science: make it easy, understood and expected, and well soon see face masks everywhere, saving lives.

Angela Duckworth, founder and chief executive of Character Lab, is a professor at the University of Pennsylvania, where Lyle Ungar is a professor of computer and information science, and Ezekiel J. Emanuel, author of the forthcoming Which Country Has the Worlds Best Health Care?, is a professor of health care management, medical ethics and health policy.

The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. Wed like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And heres our email: letters@nytimes.com.

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There Are 3 Things We Have to Do to Get People Wearing Masks - The New York Times