Category Archives: Human Behavior

Human Behavior

Mother Nature as a Geopolitical Force – American Council on Science and Health

This article was originally published at Geopolitical Futures. The original is here.

History is biased, and not just because the victors tend to write it. The study of history is largely the study of humankind specifically, the geopolitical events that have shaped human actions (and vice versa) over millennia. Its true that to learn from the past, we must study ourselves. But what if were missing a large part of the story? What if Mother Nature plays just as large a role in shaping the course of human events as mankind? After all, any force that compels specific actions by nation-states is necessarily geopolitical.

It has long been understood that geography imposes substantial imperatives and constraints on nations. Russia, for example, will always be obsessed with securing warm water ports and access to the Mediterranean via the Black Sea because accidents of geography placed the country adjacent to potential adversaries on one side and the Arctic Ocean on another, making it essentially landlocked.

But geography is just one piece of the puzzle, one that fails to account for the vagaries of natural disaster. To understand just how potent a force Mother Nature can be in geopolitics, we must expand our understanding beyond basic geography to include transitory disasters. But this raises questions that are difficult to answer. How can a geopolitical model such as ours, designed to forecast the predictable behavior of nation-states, incorporate unpredictable forces? Is there some threshold that a natural event must cross in order to be considered geopolitically relevant? Is there a way to determine if a natural event plays a determinative role in shaping events or simply accelerates a preexisting trend? Are certain nation-states, cities or societies particularly vulnerable to natural disaster?

Throughout history, Mother Nature has radically altered the course of events, far beyond simply causing structural and economic damage and personal hardship. Indeed, natural forces have helped topple governments and destroy empires. For example, in 1755, Lisbon was slammed by an enormous earthquake and tsunami and then engulfed in an ensuing fire. According to science writer Robin Andrews, the country immediately lost roughly one-third to one-half of its gross domestic product, and the European balance of power shifted decisively away from Portugal to Britain and France. But was this event truly determinative? Perhaps not. Britain and France were already powerful, and Portugals empire was sunsetting.

Adding a layer of complexity, Mother Nature doesnt always have to act locally to change geopolitics. Rather, its impact can have effects on locations far from the natural events origin. In 1815, Mount Tambora in Indonesia erupted, spewing so much ash into the atmosphere that it has been blamed for the bizarre climate of 1816, which became known as the year without a summer. Crops failed all across the Northern Hemisphere, and famine and disease were rampant. It is widely believed that the unusually gloomy year helped inspire, at least in part, the invention of the bicycle and Mary Shelleys novel Frankenstein, the former being a new form of transportation and the latter leaving a lasting imprint on our culture. Once again, Mother Natures impact is evident but not fully clear. Surely, somebody somewhere would have invented a bicycle at some point. And Frankenstein was a story about the immoral and irresponsible use of technology, a story that could just as easily be written today.

Fast forward nearly 200 years, and another cataclysmic event in the Asian Pacific served as a catalyst for major geopolitical events. In 2011, an underwater earthquake triggered a massive tsunami, inundating Japan and causing a meltdown of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power facility. On the other side of the planet, Germany responded by phasing out its nuclear power plants, which in turn increased that nations reliance on Russian natural gas. About 22 percent of Germanys energy needs are met by natural gas, and about 50 to 75 percent of it comes from Russia. This, in turn, has deepened divisions within the European Union, particularly angering some members of the Central and Eastern bloc that believe reliance on Russian natural gas poses a national security threat. But to what extent can we really blame Mother Nature for the EUs problems? Europeans are quite capable of creating controversy all by themselves.

Geological catastrophes arent the only trick Mother Nature can use to influence geopolitics. Biology provides fertile ground for meddling in international affairs. In his book Twelve Diseases That Changed Our World, professor Irwin Sherman explains how genetic and infectious diseases radically altered the course of history. Consider Queen Victoria, a carrier of hemophilia, a disease that causes uncontrollable bleeding due to inadequate clotting. The disease can be so severe that a tiny cut or bruise becomes a life-threatening wound. While she did not suffer from the disease herself, she passed on a bad gene to her children and grandchildren. Victorias granddaughter, Alexandra, married into the Romanovs, becoming the wife of Czar Nicholas II and the empress of Russia. Her son, Alexis, suffered from hemophilia. Sherman argues that, after Nicholas II was forced to abdicate, Alexis illness prevented him from becoming a constitutional monarch. The resulting chaos opened the door to the Bolshevik Revolution. Obviously, Queen Victorias genetics didnt cause Bolshevism, but perhaps they provided the opportunity for the Bolsheviks to seize power.

The diseases that have had the greatest impact on history, of course, were infectious rather than genetic. Sherman goes on to describe how potato blight, cholera, smallpox and myriad other diseases triggered chains of events whose consequences are still apparent today. For example, the fungal pathogen that destroyed potatoes and caused starvation in Ireland drove a massive immigration of Irishmen to America, forever changing its political landscape. The devastation of Native Americans by smallpox and other diseases facilitated the exploits of the Spanish conquistadors and aided colonization by the British. Some infectious diseases came with a silver lining. Though it is responsible for the deaths of untold millions of people, the death wrought by cholera helped inspire the establishment of global public health institutions, which have played a leading role in preventing or even eradicating infectious disease. Here, Mother Nature arguably has played a much larger determinative role.

What can we learn by applying this new way of thinking to the current coronavirus pandemic? Like a lightning bolt, Mother Nature is powerful and unpredictable. Yes, we know lightning occurs during storms, but we cant predict when and where it will strike. Likewise, microbiologists and epidemiologists have long worried about an infectious disease pandemic, but few if any thought it would be a coronavirus in the year 2020. A report from the University of Minnesotas Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy makes that clear:

When severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) the virus that causes COVID-19 first emerged in Wuhan, China, in December 2019, even the most experienced international public health experts did not anticipate that it would rapidly spread to create the worst global public health crisis in over 100 years. By January 2020, a few public health officials began sounding the alarm, but it wasnt until March 11, 2020, that the World Health Organization declared a global pandemic.

By then, we now know, it was too late. The virus was everywhere. In the flash of an eye, Mother Nature commandeered the global agenda, ruthlessly and inconsiderately upsetting the lives of billions, indiscriminately wrecking democracies and dictatorships alike. She reminded us that she is still active and even mercurial in geopolitics. Our airplanes have conquered the skies, but Icelands volcanoes can keep them on the ground. Our doctors can save lives, but a new virus can end them. In retrospect, it is often clear to discern a chain of causal events linking nature to major geopolitical events such as an undersea earthquake leading to friction in the EU. But such revelations only occur in hindsight. Thats why forecasting Mother Nature has been left to soothsayers and the local weathermen. Perhaps its time for geopolitical analysts to give it a try.

2020 Geopolitical Futures. Republished with permission.

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Mother Nature as a Geopolitical Force - American Council on Science and Health

Human Behavior

RPA: Deploying the Potentials of Automation for Business Efficacy – Analytics Insight

Robotic Process Automation or RPA is one of the top technologies in todays market, and slow-growth to hypergrowth organizations are adopting automation in their day-to-day tasks its value is increasing at a great pace. RPA technology allows a software robot to mimic human behavior. It can navigate enterprise software like ERP systems, FSM software, or service management tools using the applications user interfaces just like a human would. However, a robot is able to work much faster, and more efficiently without ever slowing down.

Counting on its benefits for corporate environment, recent industry research on accounting and finance professionals found that in reality, RPA software has huge potential to eliminate the most time-consuming and repetitive manual processes that make up an accountants day-to-day work. Robotic Process Automation can improve efficiencies to deliver more accurate intelligence data and also provide real-time access to financial data with reporting and analytic capabilities.

As the amount of financial data keeps on increasing because of the Big Data boom, this technology can help finance professionals to start adding real value from a strategic viewpoint and start contributing more towards the bottom-line of their company.

RPA automates actions, inputs, behaviors, etc., in the user interface. It is ideal for integration projects that require human manipulation of user interface elements and involve heterogeneous systems. RPA technologies exploit standard APIs, so integrators wont have to tinker with existing applications, workflows, processes, or system architecture. In this way, RPA can help reduce the amount of work (along with much of the risk) necessary to integrate heterogeneous applications and systems. This is one of the biggest factors driving the cost-effectiveness of RPA implementations.

RPA is not a panacea. Some tasks, even if tedious or repetitive, will require manual human oversight and control. As always, careful analysis of in-process workflows enables you to determine the best overall candidates for robotic automation.

In general, the following are good places to start with RPA:

Rote and repetitive tasks. Pointing-and-clicking a mouse. Copying-and-pasting text.

Testing and validation. Some visual interfaces require substantial time and effort to test prior to deployment. RPA can radically accelerate this process, improve testing, and reduce costs.

Redundant tasks. Basic tasks that multiple users tend to perform in parallel in an organization.

Manual tasks with limited variability and few exceptions. Tasks that are consistent, repeatable, and/or highly predictable are excellent candidates for robotic automation.

Human-orchestrated integrations. A user manually copies data from one visual interface and pastes it into another, or a user manually imports the output of one program into another.

Any tedious or time-consuming task that looks like it might be a good candidate for automation. Automating the task should free one or more humans to do more productive work.

Though automation software is expected to replace up to 140 million full-time employees worldwide by 2025, many high-quality jobs will be created for those who maintain and improve RPA software.

When software robots do replace people in the enterprise, C-level executives need to be responsible for ensuring that business outcomes are achieved and new governance policies are met.

Robotic process automation technology also requires that the CTO/CIO take more of a leadership role and assume accountability for the business outcomes and the risks of deploying RPA tools.

Additionally, the COO, CIO and chief human resources officer, as well as the relevant C-level executive who owns the process being automated, should all work toward ensuring the availability of an enterprise-grade, secure platform for controlling and operating bots across systems.

When RPA first arose as a category, it evolved from macros that automated simple tasks into programmable bots based on a set of human-defined process rules.

These bots helped improve efficiency in isolated situations, but organizations soon struggled on two fronts. First, discovering and defining processes for the bots to automateat scalehas been a challenge for RPA from the start. Second, the management of the bots themselves and the process-defined rule-sets that direct their actions have become a big bugbear.

This is what has led to the growth in RPA platforms, which can help on both fronts. RPA tools help automate the discovery of the processes and provide tools for line-of-business users to more easily build automations based on their process needs, often based on pre-built bot libraries. Additionally, platforms define rules that govern and orchestrate the way bots run.

RPA vendors are trying to flex the limits of process definition by developing machine learning capabilities to automatically discover and learn processes. Increasingly, vendors are building in the ability to record and analyze user actions and then use machine learning to automatically define process rules and reduce the number of manual steps.

However, the heavy lifting still typically falls on business stakeholders and the automation team to get things rolling.

Usually, however, RPA projects require the aid of consultants and integrators, which is why analysts project a threefold increase in spending on RPA software through 2022.

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RPA: Deploying the Potentials of Automation for Business Efficacy - Analytics Insight

Human Behavior

Pandemic is showing us we need safe and ethical AI more than ever | TheHill – The Hill

Machine-learning models are trained on human behavior and excel at highlighting predictable or normal behaviors and patterns. However, the sudden onset of a global pandemic caused a massive change in human behavior that by some accounts has caused automation to go into a tailspin, exposing fragilities in integrated systems we have come to rely upon.

The realization of the scale and scope of these vulnerabilities which affect operations ranging from inventory management to global supply chain logistics comes at a time when we need artificial intelligence (AI) more than ever. For example, AI technologies are enabling contact tracing applications that may help mitigate the spread of the coronavirus. And amidst widespread testing shortages, hospitals have started to use AI technologies to help diagnose COVID-19 patients.

Still, the expansion of AI in healthcare could at the same time lead to profound threats to privacy and civil liberties, among other concerns. Even when AI systems are relatively accurate, their implementation in complex social contexts can cause unintentional and unexpected problems, for example resulting in over-testing, which is inconvenient for patients and burdensome for resource-strapped healthcare facilities. The challenges associated with developing and implementing AI technologies responsibly calls for the adoption of a suite of practices, mechanisms, and policies from the outset.

A new report from the UC Berkeley Center for Long-Term Cybersecurity provides a timely overview of some of the approaches currently being used to roll out AI technologies responsibly. These range from monitoring and documentation techniques to standards and organizational structures that can be utilized at different stages of the AI development pipeline. The report includes three case studies that can serve as a guide for other AI stakeholders whether companies, research labs, or national governments facing decisions about how to facilitate responsible AI innovation during uncertain times.

The first case study explores Microsofts AI, Ethics and Effects in Engineering and Research (AETHER) Committee and highlights what it takes to integrate AI principles into a major technology company. It is well known that Googles attempt to establish an AI ethics board dissolved within a week, however the AETHER Committee originally launched in 2018 has comparatively flown under the radar despite some notable successes. AETHER established a mechanism within Microsoft that facilitates structured review of controversial AI use-cases, providing a pathway for executives and employees to flag concerns, develop recommendations, and create new company-wide policies.

For example, AETHERs deliberations helped inform Microsofts decision to reject a request from a California sheriffs department to install facial recognition technology in officers cars and body cameras. In another example, AETHERs Bias and Fairness working group helped develop an AI ethics checklist for engineers to use throughout the product development process. Other AETHER working groups have developed tools to help AI developers conduct threat-modeling and improve the explainability of black-box systems. An internal phone line called Ask AETHER enables any employee to flag an issue for consideration by the Committee.

The second case study explored in the CLTC report delves into OpenAIs experiment with the staged release of its AI language model, GPT-2, which can generate paragraphs of synthetic text on any topic. Rather than release the full model all at once, the research lab used a staged release, publishing progressively larger models over a nine-month period and using the time in between stages to explore potential societal and policy implications.

OpenAIs decision to release GPT-2 in stages was controversial in a field known for openness, but the company argued that slowing down the release of such a powerful, omni-use technology would help identify potential dangers in advance. The research labs decision jump-started a larger conversation about best practices and responsible publication norms, and other companies have since opted for more cautious and thoughtful release strategies.

Finally, the third case study discusses the role of the new OECD AI Policy Observatory, formally launched in February 2020 to serve as a platform to share and shape public policies for responsible, trustworthy and beneficial AI. In May 2019, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) achieved the notable feat of adopting the first intergovernmental standard on AI with the support of over 40 countries. Subsequent endorsements by the G20 and other partner countries have expanded the scope of the OECD AI Principles to much of the world. Launched this year, the Observatory is working to anchor the principles in evidence-based policy analysis and implementation recommendations while facilitating meaningful international coordination on the development and use of AI.

Together, the three case studies shine a light on what AI stakeholders are doing to move beyond declarations of AI principles to real-world, structural change. They demonstrate actions that depart from the status quo by altering business practices, research norms, and policy frameworks. At a time of global economic upheaval, such deliberate efforts could not be more critical.

Demand for AI technologies whether for pandemic response and recovery or countless other uses is unlikely to diminish, but open dialogue about how to use AI safely and ethically will help us avoid the trap of adopting technological solutions that cause more problems than they solve.

Jessica Cussins Newman is a research fellow at the UC Berkeley Center for Long-Term Cybersecurity, where she focuses on digital governance and the security implications of artificial intelligence. She is also an AI policy specialist with the Future of Life Institute and a research adviser with The Future Society. She has previously studied at Harvard University's Belfer Center,and has held research positions with Harvard's Program on Science, Technology & Society, the Institute for the Future, and the Center for Genetics and Society. She holds degrees from the Harvard Kennedy School and University of California, Berkeley. Follow her on Twitter@JessicaH_Newman.

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Pandemic is showing us we need safe and ethical AI more than ever | TheHill - The Hill

Human Behavior

How Is COVID-19 Different From Other Respiratory Diseases? – Yahoo News

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In March 2020, Google searches for phrases like cant taste food or why cant I smell spiked around the world, particularly in areas where COVID-19 hit hardest. Still, many of us have experienced a temporary change in the flavor of our food with a common cold or the flu (influenza). So, is COVID-19 the disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus somehow special in the way it affects smell and taste?

We are researchers who study the relationships between human behavior and the sensations people experience from chemicals in daily life. Upon learning that COVID-19 might differentially affect taste and smell, we thought our expertise might be relevant, so we got to work.

The flavor of food is more than just taste

When people taste food, they are experiencing input from three different sensory systems that are knitted together to form a singular unified sensation. Strictly speaking, taste describes the five qualities we sense on the tongue, including sweet, salty, bitter, sour and savory/umami. Savory, also known as umami, refers to the meatiness of broth, cheese, fish sauce, or a sundried tomato.

Other sensations from food occur via our sense of smell, even though we experience them in the mouth. Volatile chemicals are released when we chew. These chemicals travel through the back of the throat to reach smell receptors found at the top of the nasal cavity, right behind the point where your eyeglasses rest on your nose.

The third sensory system involved in food flavor involves touch and temperature nerves that can also be activated by chemicals. This is known as chemesthesis. In the mouth, these sensations include the burn of chili peppers, the cooling of mouthwash or mints, the tingle of carbonation, or the vibrating buzz of Sichuan peppers. Together, these three chemosensory systems taste, smell and chemesthesis work to define our perceptual experiences from food.

Common viral infections attack the nose more than the mouth

Story continues

Loss of smell is common with many viruses, including rhinoviruses, influenza, parainfluenza and coronaviruses, and it is normally attributed to nasal inflammation that restricts airflow.

If your nose is blocked, it is not surprising you are not able to smell much. Typically, the other two systems taste and oral chemesthesis are not affected, as a blocked nose does not alter our ability to taste sugar as sweet or feel the burn from a chili pepper. With time, most patients recover their senses of smell, but occasionally some do not. Causes vary, but in some individuals, inflammation from a viral illness appears to permanently damage key structures located around the smell receptors.

SARS-CoV-2 isnt like those other viruses

Since early spring 2020, firsthand reports have indicated that the SARS-CoV-2 virus, the novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19, might affect the mouth and nose more severely than the common cold or the flu. Not only were the reports of loss more frequent, but they also differed from what is normally seen.

One British surgeon with COVID-19 posted a video to Twitter showing that he had lost the ability to feel the burn of chilies. Others, like Penn State undergraduate Caela Camazine, reported losing their sense of smell and taste completely without any nasal congestion.

Based on the spike in Google searches, and these atypical accounts of chemosensory loss, more than 600 researchers, clinicians and patient advocates from 60 countries formed the Global Consortium for Chemosensory Research.

The Global Consortium for Chemosensory Research launched a global survey in 32 different languages to better understand what COVID-19 patients are experiencing. Initial results from our survey support the idea that COVID-19 related losses are not limited to smell, as many patients also report disruption of taste and chemesthesis.

Our understanding of how the SARS-CoV-2 virus can affect multiple sensory systems is still quite limited, but is advancing daily. Initial work suggests that smell disturbances in COVID-19 patients are caused by the disruption of cells that support olfactory neurons. In our noses, we have nerve cells called olfactory sensory neurons, which are covered with odor receptors tuned for certain volatile chemicals. When a chemical binds an odor receptor, the olfactory sensory neuron fires a signal to the brain which we perceive as a smell. Notably, it does not appear that the virus targets olfactory sensory neurons directly.

Instead, the virus seems to target specialized supporting cells that cradle the olfactory sensory neurons. These support cells are covered with a different receptor, the ACE2 receptor, which acts as an entry point for the virus. In contrast, the way SARS-CoV-2 might directly affect taste and chemesthesis remains unknown.

Will COVID-19 patients recover their sensory perception?

We just dont know yet whether COVID-19 patients will recover their sense of smell, taste and chemesthesis. Many patients have reported recovering completely within two or three weeks, while others report their sensory loss lasts for many weeks. To connect with other individuals who are experiencing smell and taste loss related to COVID-19, consider reaching out to organizations advocating on behalf of those who suffer from smell and taste loss, such as AbScent and FifthSense.

Because more data are needed, we are asking for your help in our research. If you know anyone who is (or recently has been) coughing and sniffling, invite them to complete the Global Consortium for Chemosensory Research survey, which takes about 10 minutes.

We want anyone who has had any upper respiratory illness (COVID-19 or not) recently so we can compare individuals with COVID-19 to individuals with the flu or the common cold. By volunteering for our study, or by spreading the word on this research study, you can contribute to better understand how COVID-19 is special in its ability to affect smell, taste and chemesthesis.

[Get facts about coronavirus and the latest research. Sign up for The Conversations newsletter.]

John E Hayes, Associate Professor of Food Science, Pennsylvania State University and Valentina Parma, Research Assistant Professor, Temple University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Image: Reuters

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How Is COVID-19 Different From Other Respiratory Diseases? - Yahoo News

Human Behavior

What you need to know about coronavirus on Thursday, June 4 – KTEN

By Ivana Kottasov, CNN

George Floyd had coronavirus before he was killed while in police custody last week in Minneapolis.

Floyd tested positive for the virus after his death. The autopsy report released yesterday says the disease played no role in his death and was likely a sign of a previous infection.

As a black man, Floyd had a higher chance of contracting Covid-19. Official data shows that while black people make up 13% of the general US population, they account for 23% of the country's novel coronavirus deaths. This inequality has been seen elsewhere in the world: people from ethnic minority communities in the UK, for example, are up to 50% more likely to die of the virus than white people.

That Floyd survived the virus but died after a police officer had his knee on the unarmed 46-year-old's neck for more than 8 minutes displays the deep racial inequality in America in 2020.

Several high-profile doctors' groups have said this week that racism is a public health issue and called for police brutality to stop. Numerous studies have shown that experiences of racism or discrimination raise the risk of emotional and physical health problems, including cardiovascular disease and high blood pressure, both of which are a serious risk factor in Covid-19 patients.

This pandemic has amplified existing inequalities. People of color are more likely to work on the frontlines and live in densely populated areas, they have worse access to healthcare and more underlying health conditions. And now, protesting these injustices amid the ongoing Covid-19 outbreak, they are again at risk.

Q: Is hand sanitizer as effective as soap and water in killing coronavirus?

A: Yes as long as you use the right kind of sanitizer correctly.

Hand sanitizers "need to have at least 60% alcohol in them," said Dr. William Schaffner, professor of preventative medicine and infectious disease at Vanderbilt University School of Medicine.

Make sure to rub it all over your hands, between your fingers and on the back of your hands.

It's always better to thoroughly wash your hands, if you're able to. "Alcohol is pretty effective at killing germs, but it doesn't wash away stuff," said Dr. John Williams, a virologist at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center Children's Hospital of Pittsburgh.

Send your questions here. Are you a health care worker fighting Covid-19? Message us on WhatsApp about the challenges you're facing: +1 347-322-0415.

Sweden admits flaws in its strategy

The architect of Sweden's coronavirus response has defended the country's controversial decision not to go into lockdown, while admitting "improvements" could be made with the benefit of hindsight.

As the coronavirus pandemic swept across the world and governments scrambled to enact emergency lockdown measures, Sweden kept most schools, restaurants, salons and bars open. It asked people to refrain from making long journeys, placing an emphasis on personal responsibility. But three months later, Sweden's Covid-19 death toll stands at 4,542, much higher than in other nordic countries.

Why strict lockdowns might be better for the economy

Sweden's approach was hailed by those concerned about the impact of the lockdown on the economy. However, a new study suggests that strict lockdowns might be better for economies than longer, more moderate closures. Shorter but stricter lockdowns don't hit businesses as hard, researchers reported Wednesday in the journal Nature Human Behavior. Businesses can weather a short, extreme shutdown but run out of supplies and reserves as time goes on.

What's new on the vaccine front

As the science community works at a breakneck speed to develop an effective vaccine, many are stressing that the race to find one needs to be one against the virus and not a competition between countries and companies. The Virtual Global Vaccine Summit hosted by the UK today will likely stress that message, with Bill Gates and Boris Johnson as keynote speakers.

Meanwhile, the Trump administration has selected five companies that are the most likely to produce a Covid-19 vaccine, according to a White House coronavirus task force source. And the Covid-19 vaccine being developed by Oxford University in partnership with AstraZeneca pharmaceutical will now be tested in Brazil.

More questions around Trump's drug of choice

A new study -- the first of its kind -- shows hydroxychloroquine doesn't work to prevent coronavirus infection. President Donald Trump said he took the drug last month, shortly after he found out that his personal valet had been diagnosed with the coronavirus.

Previous studies have shown hydroxychloroquine doesn't help patients with Covid-19 and trials of the drug have been suspended after a large study suggested the drug might actually harm patients. That study, published in a renowned medical journal The Lancet has since been questioned and the World Health Organization said yesterday it was safe to restart the trials.

Fauci weighs the pros and cons of reopening schools

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the US National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said he believes it's a "bit of a reach" to keep schools closed in the fall because of coronavirus safety concerns for children.

Fauci said children tend to have milder symptoms -- or even no symptoms -- when they are infected with Covid-19. What's not yet clear, however, is whether children get infected as frequently as adults and whether they pass the infection on to others as easily. Fauci said ultimately, the decision to reopen schools needs to be predicated on the level of infection in each community.

Concerns for Haiti

The World Health Organization said yesterday it was "very concerned" about coronavirus in Haiti "because of its unique circumstances, unique fragility and the fact that the disease is accelerating in a highly vulnerable population." Haiti has reported at least 2,507 confirmed cases of Covid-19 and at least 48 deaths, according to the latest report by the Haitian Ministry of Health from June 1.

The Covid-19 crisis is spiralling out of control in much of Latin America. Brazil and Mexico both registered a record number of coronavirus-related deaths yesterday.

How to make good decisions when you're paralyzed by the stress

"It's crazy times, with protests and a pandemic and things at every level appearing untrustworthy," said biochemist Bita Moghaddam, who chairs the behavioral neuroscience department in the school of medicine at Oregon Health and Science University.

Moghaddam, who studies how anxiety affects the brain, said it's no wonder our stressed, overworked brains can't spit out a decision. We have become victims of "analysis paralysis."

So here are some tips on how to give your brain a break from its constant risk calculations.

TODAY'S PODCAST

"I just encourage people to bring their own chairs. While it's nice to stand up and chat, we find people start to move closer and closer the more comfortable they feel. And if you've got a chair, you don't drift."

-- CNN contributor and immunologist Erin Bromage

As the weather heats up, many of us are contemplating how to safely go out into the world and enjoy the summer. CNN Chief Medical Correspondent Dr. Sanjay Gupta talks to CNN contributor and immunologist Erin Bromage about what to consider before doing anything from hosting a cookout to going for a hike. Listen Now.

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What you need to know about coronavirus on Thursday, June 4 - KTEN

Human Behavior

Police discuss tactics, diversity and George Floyds death with Saginaw community – MLive.com

SAGINAW, MI During an online community forum held Wednesday, several heads of Saginaw County police agencies condemned the actions of a Minneapolis officer that led to the death of citizen George Floyd. They also rebuked the officers act of kneeling on Floyds neck.

Is there ever a training where someone would advocate putting a knee on a neck? Absolutely not, said Saginaw County Sheriff William L. Federspiel. Absolutely not, and Ive been doing this job for 33 years Ive never done that, nor have I seen it done. What that officer in Minneapolis did was atrocious, horrible, and it turned my stomach when I watched it.

The sheriff described the actions of Derek Chauvin, the officer seen in the much-circulated video pinning his knee to Floyds neck for several minutes, as being criminal.

Fielding questions about police officers training, Buena Vista Township Police Chief Reggie Williams II spoke with candor.

What took place in Minneapolis, personally, I do not feel was in regards to did (Chauvin) have a lack of training, did he need more, whatever, Williams said. It was because (Chauvin) was not a decent person and he treated someone with indecency. He killed a man. This comes just down to being a good person doing your job the correct way. We need good people doing their job right.

Responding to a question about nonapproved use-of-force tactics, Saginaw Police Chief Robert M. Ruth said one nonapproved tactic is putting your knee on someones neck or applying pressure to someones neck like you saw in the Floyd video. When you see someone struggling for air, or you see another officer doing something wrong, you have a duty to act. You have a duty to pull that person off of them, to stop that from happening.

The officers gave their statements during a Zoom forum held the afternoon of Wednesday, June 3, titled, What is Our Relationship? Addressing Law Enforcement Concerns in the 95th District. The forum was cosponsored by The Bridge Center for Racial Harmony and SVAALTI Leadership Institute (formerly known as the Saginaw Valley African American Leadership Training Institute) and was streamed on The Bridge Centers Facebook page.

The forum featured a panel comprising Federspiel, Williams, Ruth and Saginaw Township Police Chief Donald F. Pussehl Jr. It was moderated by Bridge Center co-director Coral Dean and former Saginaw City Councilman Clint Bryant, who is now running for the state representative seat in the 95th District.

The forum was followed by a response section, featuring a second panel composed of four local activists.

Dean and Byrant asked both panels questions submitted by citizens on the Facebook page.

Watch the full video here:

Bryant opened the forum by asking the quartet of police agency heads if they would be willing to commit to adopting more programs that would help engage people of color and ultimately hire a more diverse police force.

Absolutely, Federspiel replied. Ive been sheriff for 12 years in in those 12 years Ive tried to cultivate a diverse staff. Im very proud to have a diverse group. If there are other ways we could diversify our staff, I would love to do that.

Ruth seconded the sheriffs response.

Of course I would, he said. Any time we can make our police department look more like our community, it benefits everyone. Im actually very proud of our hiring here in the city of Saginaw. If you look at our diversity within the department, we actually have a racial diversity of 33 percent. Thats pretty high for a police department. Anything we can do to make it better, Im all for it.

I feel the same, added Williams. I will do whatever is necessary to have a diverse department to interact with our community.

Dean addressed the upcoming eighth anniversary of Milton Halls death. Six Saginaw police officers on July 1, 2012, fired 47 shots at Hall, a mentally ill black man who was holding a knife, in the Riverview Plaza parking lot at 290 W. Genesee Ave. Eleven of the bullets struck Hall and killed him. A protest is planned at the site from 3 p.m. to 6 p.m. on Friday, June 5.

Bryant wore a shirt featuring Halls name during the panel discussion.

We learned so much as a community from this tragic death, Dean said. What are some changes that you can point to so we can ensure that our community does not have to experience this again?

Pussehl said police are always looking at how to best use the minimum amount of force and most effectively deescalate any situation. Since Halls death, additional training for officers and increased awareness of mental health have been implemented, he said. Ruth added that when officers arrest a person with mental health issues, they are now taken to an area hospital rather than to jail.

Some of the other things that weve done is changing the culture within the department, Ruth said. Thats an extremely difficult task to do, the way the officers treat citizens and that was done through training and training and training.

The use of cameras, both worn by officers and in their patrol vehicles, has also increased since Halls death, Ruth said.

I think that was an excellent tool in helping to build transparency with the community and help build trust, he said. This November will be six years since weve had (body cameras). I think the body cameras are one of the best tools a police officer could ever have for themselves. It also creates transparency.

Williams said it is mandatory for Buena Vista Township officers to activate their body cameras before they exit their vehicles and interact with the public.

I hope that my officers always do because if there ever is a question, I do not want to be put in the position of wondering or having to believe someone elses word, Williams said. Body cameras help us more than they hurt us.

The sheriffs office has in-vehicle cameras but does not have body cameras for deputies, though it is actively seeking to obtain them, Federspiel said.

Bryant asked how citizens can find policies dealing with officers interactions with the public. The agency heads said the policies are not posted publicly, but citizens can contact them for an explanation of the them, adding they have strict use-of-force policies.

The sheriff said his department has a lieutenant assigned to internal investigations who randomly reviews videos. Each citizens complaint is thoroughly investigated he said, adding the sheriffs office has had more than 20 internal investigations so far this year, most of which have been minor.

Instead of sitting back and waiting for someone to complain, this particular lieutenants job is to be reviewing, randomly, video from in-car cameras and audio from the officers who work on the roads, and also video and audio from within the jail, Federspiel said. I cant stress enough how important it was for me to get that position so that we have someone, of rank, higher up in the agency that can report directly to the undersheriff and myself so that we can handle situations quickly and appropriately should they arise."

Ruth added that all use-of-force incidents are reviewed by a sergeant, a lieutenant, and him.

Were very strict with that from a disciplinary standpoint, Ruth said.

Bryant posed the following submitted question: Research has suggested that unconscious racial bias often impacts human behavior. In your opinion, what can Saginaw law enforcement do in terms of developing, educating, or cultivating an internal culture to combat the effects of unconscious racial bias so it does not affect how police enforce the law?

When a bias is recognized and it is pointed out, it needs to be addressed, Williams said. There needs to be dialogue. Dialogue is the one thing that helps move us forward in the right direction.

Federspiel referred again to the diverse ethnic backgrounds and genders in the upper ranks of his department.

When you have people with diverse backgrounds that are at every level of command, that to me is an important way for us to gauge whether there is conscious or unconscious bias and we can address it quickly, he said. Weve had terminations based on people who have exhibited some severe forms of bias. Every case is different. Our goal is to make sure we have a safe environment that we are out here protecting.

Dean asked the panel if a police-involved killing occurred in the area that was similar to Floyds death, would there be an immediate investigation and arrest or would there have to be days of riots before something got done?

You dont have one man on this panel that would tolerate that, Williams replied. Not one of us.

The Response

After the officers spoke and an intermission, a second forum was streamed on Facebook Live featuring local activists Louis Thomas Jr., Indigo Dudley, Christopher A. Foxx, and Brandon Harris. Dean asked the panelists their opinions on some of the most pressing issues facing the black community right now.

A panel for four Saginaw-area activists gather for an online community forum on June 3, 2020, in the wake of the death of Minneapolis resident George Floyd and the resulting protests that have occurred nationwide. Clockwise from top left: Moderator Clint Bryant, moderator Coral Dean, Louis Thomas, Indigo Dudley, Christopher A. Foxx, and Brandon Harris.

The interaction with the police does have to improve, from a public policy level, Harris said. I would like to see anything that we do begin with public policy, and specifically transparency with oversight.

Foxx agreed that more transparency is needed from the police, as well as specifics on officers training and enforcement tactics.

The ongoing issue that we all see, which is not just against any other race, but against us as a black community, Thomas added. Its seen that the law is not for the black community; its more against the black community, as far as force-wise. How we can solve it is we got to be able to trust.

He suggested psychological evaluations for officers and evaluating whether they foster prejudices that would lead them to interact differently with people of color.

Dudley agreed with her panelists in seeking more transparency and psychological assessments of officers.

You can go to as many trainings as you want, but if you dont feel the need to apply what youre learning in those trainings, its not going to matter, she said. Those psych evaluations are really important. I, as a citizen, would like to know where your head is at, regardless of how you feel about me as a person. I feel like the only way to hold our officers accountable is to have those psych evaluations frequently.

Dean said the movement resulting from Floyds death feels different than the public reactions garnered by prior incidents of people of color killed by police.

Black Lives Matter, this entire movement, all of these protests, all of this anger cannot just be the newest tragedy of the month for 2020, Dean said. This is something black people have been dealing with for centuries, for far too long. Now, it has to keep going.

She spoke of the solidarity of people of all races, ages, genders, and backgrounds joining in the protests seen across the country since Floyds death. She asked the panelists if they feel the same that this movement is different from those that came before.

Dudley said she feels this one is different.

The protests are only the beginning, she said. If we dont keep the momentum going, nobody is going to feel the need to change everything, because at that point, were just complaining. If they see that were serious about this, that you need to change this, then more attention will be paid to it.

Foxx differed.

I felt the same kind of anguish, rage, and uncertainty in my position in the world and this community since Milton Hall, he said, adding he felt the same when Malice Green died after being assaulted by two Detroit police officers in 1992. Personally, this does not feel new to me. It stills feels the same. Its a lot of lip service and Im not really seeing any commitment to the change.

Harris agreed with Foxx, but added hes glad to see mid-Michigan communities coming together to peacefully protest. He offered a sobering caveat.

Im tired of seeing black bodies continuing to be hashtags, continuing to be a trend, he said. Its very frustrating even to put into words. I have a 7-year-old son. I dont want my son or anyone that I know to become another hashtag.

Im exhausted, he continued. So much rage, so much pain. If you do not want to make change, get out the way. Its as simple as that.

Thomas concurred with Harris view.

I would hope and I would pray that its going to change the world for real, he said, but it has to start not only with us, but with the politicians. We vote you into office to protect us and we dont feel protected, we dont feel safe.

Thomas said he feels like he has a target on his back just being black.

I didnt have a choice to be black, but you have a choice to wear that badge, he continued. Its scary. Im scared to even bring children into this world knowing that my son or my daughter may be scrutinized for the color of their skin.

Responding to another comment, Dudley said that she while respects police, officers comparing their lives to black lives, as in Blue Lives Matter as a reaction to Black Lives Matter, is wrong.

I am black, my siblings are black, my family is black; there is no way that Im changing that, she said. I cant change it. You trying to compare your life to mine, thats unacceptable. Youre held at a higher standard. You knew that when you were signing on.

Foxx added that police need to be more forthcoming in how their departments are improving.

They said theyre doing great, he said. Im not sure the community thinks theyre doing great. Id like to see from them their method of improvement. How are they quantifying improvement?

Foxx also said he hopes for a civilian advisory board reviewing citizens complaints of officers. Dudley agreed, saying it is important the right people are picked to be on it. Harris too called for an advisory board, but seconded Dudleys concern on getting the right people on it.

The forum ended with Dean saying shes hopeful more will convene in the near future.

Related:

Here are the upcoming George Floyd protests around mid-Michigan

'Enough is enough: Hundreds march in Saginaw to demand justice for George Floyd

Saginaw group spending 72 hours outside police department to protest George Floyd death in Minnesota

Police brutality protests in Michigan: What you need to know from this weekends rallies, riots

Flint-area police join protesters marching to seek justice for George Floyd

Peaceful protest in Grand Rapids devolves into riot, looting and fires

See the original post here:
Police discuss tactics, diversity and George Floyds death with Saginaw community - MLive.com

Human Behavior

Massey University’s Teo Susnjak on how Covid-19 broke machine learning, extreme data patterns, wealth and income inequality, bots and propaganda and…

This weeks Top 5 comes from Teo Susnjaka computer scientistspecialising in machine learning. He is a Senior Lecturer in Information Technology at Massey University and is the developer behind GDPLive.

As always, we welcome your additions in the comments below or via email to david.chaston@interest.co.nz.

And if you're interested in contributing the occasional Top 5yourself, contact gareth.vaughan@interest.co.nz.

1. Covid-19 broke machine learning.

As the Covid-19 crisis started to unfold, we started to change our buying patterns. All of a sudden, some of the top purchasing items became: antibacterial soap, sanitiser, face masks, yeast and of course, toilet paper. As the demand for these unexpected items exploded, retail supply chains were disrupted. But they weren't the only ones affected.

Artificial intelligence systems began to break too. The MIT Technology Review reports:

Machine-learning models that run behind the scenes in inventory management, fraud detection, and marketing rely on a cycle of normal human behavior. But what counts as normal has changed, and now some are no longer working.

How bad the situation is depends on whom you talk to. According to Pactera Edge, a global AI consultancy, automation is in tailspin. Others say they are keeping a cautious eye on automated systems that are just about holding up, stepping in with a manual correction when needed.

Whats clear is that the pandemic has revealed how intertwined our lives are with AI, exposing a delicate codependence in which changes to our behavior change how AI works, and changes to how AI works change our behavior. This is also a reminder that human involvement in automated systems remains key. You can never sit and forget when youre in such extraordinary circumstances, says Cline.

Image source: MIT Technology Review

The extreme data capturing a previously unseen collapse in consumer spending that feeds the real-time GDP predictor at GDPLive.net, also broke our machine learning algorithms.

2. Extreme data patterns.

The eminent economics and finance historian, Niall Ferguson (not to be confused with Neil Ferguson who also likes to create predictive models) recently remarked that the first month of the lockdown created conditions which took a full year to materialise during the Great Depression.

The chart below shows the consumption data falling off the cliff, generating inputs that broke econometrics and machine learning models.

What we want to see is a rapid V-shaped recovery in consumer spending. The chart below shows the most up-to-date consumer spending trends. Consumer spending has now largely recovered, but is still lower than that of the same period in 2019. One of the key questions will be whether or not this partial rebound will be temporary until the full economic impacts of the 'Great Lockdown' take effect.

Paymark tracks consumer spending on their new public dashboard. Check it out here.

3. Wealth and income inequality.

As the current economic crisis unfolds, GDP will take centre-stage again and all other measures which attempt to quantify wellbeing and social inequalities will likely be relegated until economic stability returns.

When the conversation does return to this topic, AI might have something to contribute.

Effectively addressing income inequality is a key challenge in economics with taxation being the most useful tool. Although taxation can lead to greater equalities, over-taxation discourages from working and entrepreneurship, and motivates tax avoidance. Ultimately this leaves less resources to redistribute. Striking an optimal balance is not straightforward.

The MIT Technology Reviewreports thatAI researchers at the US business technology company Salesforce implemented machine learning techniques that identify optimal tax policies for a simulated economy.

In one early result, the system found a policy thatin terms of maximising both productivity and income equalitywas 16% fairer than a state-of-the-art progressive tax framework studied by academic economists. The improvement over current US policy was even greater.

Image source: MIT Technology Review

It is unlikely that AI will have anything meaningful to contribute towards tackling wealth inequality though. If Walter Scheidel, author of The Great Leveller and professor of ancient history at Stanford is correct, then the only historically effective levellers of inequality are: wars, revolutions, state collapses and...pandemics.

4. Bots and propaganda.

Over the coming months, arguments over what has caused this crisis, whether it was the pandemic or the over-reactive lockdown policies, will occupy much of social media. According to The MIT Technology Review, bots are already being weaponised to fight these battles.

Nearly half of Twitter accounts pushing to reopen America may be bots. Bot activity has become an expected part of Twitter discourse for any politicized event. Across US and foreign elections and natural disasters, their involvement is normally between 10 and 20%. But in a new study, researchers from Carnegie Mellon University have found that bots may account for between 45 and 60% of Twitter accounts discussing covid-19.

To perform their analysis, the researchers studied more than 200 million tweets discussing coronavirus or covid-19 since January. They used machine-learning and network analysis techniques to identify which accounts were spreading disinformation and which were most likely bots or cyborgs (accounts run jointly by bots and humans).

They discovered more than 100 types of inaccurate Covid-19-19 stories and found that not only were bots gaining traction and accumulating followers, but they accounted for 82% of the top 50 and 62% of the top 1,000 influential retweeters.

Image source: MIT Technology Review

How confident are you that you can tell the difference between a human and a bot? You can test yourself out here. BTW, I failed.

5. Primed to believe bad predictions.

This has been a particularly uncertain time. We humans don't like uncertainty especially once it reaches a given threshold. We have an amazing brain that is able to perform complex pattern recognition that enables us to predict what's around the corner. When we do this, we resolve uncertainty and our brain releases dopamine, making us feel good. When we cannot make sense of the data and the uncertainty remains unresolved, then stress kicks in.

Writing on this in Forbes, John Jennings points out:

Research shows we dislike uncertainty so much that if we have to choose between a scenario in which we know we will receive electric shocks versus a situation in which the shocks will occur randomly, well select the more painful option of certain shocks.

The article goes on to highlight how we tend to react in uncertain times. Aversion to uncertainty drives some of us to try to resolve it immediately through simple answers that align with our existing worldviews. For others, there will be a greater tendency to cluster around like-minded people with similar worldviews as this is comforting. There are some amongst us who are information junkies and their hunt for new data to fill in the knowledge gaps will go into overdrive - with each new nugget of information generating a dopamine hit. Lastly, a number of us will rely on experts who will use their crystal balls to find for us the elusive signal in all the noise, and ultimately tell us what will happen.

The last one is perhaps the most pertinent right now. Since we have a built-in drive that seeks to avoid ambiguity, in stressful times such as this, our biology makes us susceptible to accepting bad predictions about the future as gospel especially if they are generated by experts.

Experts at predicting the future do not have a strong track record considering how much weight is given to them. Their predictive models failed to see the Global Financial Crisis coming, they overstated the economic fallout of Brexit, the climate change models and their forecasts are consistently off-track, and now we have the pandemic models.

Image source:drroyspencer.com

The author suggests that this time "presents the mother of all opportunities to practice learning to live with uncertainty". I would also add that a good dose of humility on the side of the experts, and a good dose of scepticism in their ability to accurately predict the future both from the public and decision makers, would also serve us well.

Originally posted here:
Massey University's Teo Susnjak on how Covid-19 broke machine learning, extreme data patterns, wealth and income inequality, bots and propaganda and...

Human Behavior

Letter To The Editor: Comments About Madison County Decision To Open Early In Pandemic – RiverBender.com

May 5, 2020 during the third of three special meetings called by County Board Chairperson, Kurt Prenzler, the Madison County Board passed a resolution to put into effect The Guidelines For the Responsible Reopening of Madison County allowing Madison County businesses to engage the public in business activities earlier than the State mandated guidelines allow and stay open even though a business might not meet State mandated guidelines. This action was taken ostensibly on behalf of small businesses and municipalities suffering economic harm due to COVID 19 pandemic. The fact that the Guidelines and resolution, as presented, revealed a primary concern for protecting the authors and signers from any liabilities that might be incurred by anyone acting on the advice offered by the Guidelines and Resolution while making clear that anyone who did act upon the Resolution would not be supported or defended in any way by the County Government belied the Resolutions stated purpose. The Resolutions scant guidelines dealt inadequately with any issue necessary to execute a reopening of the economy during a biological natural disaster despite its claims to the contrary. Consequently, the resolution was criticized by business associations as potentially dangerous to the well-being of businesses, employees, customers, and communities. Most mayors expressed their intention to ignore the resolution as useless advice lacking legal authority.

COVID 19 pandemic is a biological natural disaster with unique characteristics. The root cause of our present circumstances is epidemiological. Law, politics, and economics have jurisdiction over human behavior but no jurisdiction over a virus. We cannot eliminate this serious biological natural disaster by declaring it illegal or passing a resolution because we think we have suffered enough at the hands of some other governmental body. Wrong focus. Policies designed to solve a single catastrophic event will fail. This is a problem that requires prudent management over an extended period. Effective solutions to our economic problems will be crafted, first, as public health policies rooted in the science of epidemiology. Solutions will require that every citizen diligently participate in proactive behaviors such as self-monitoring, testing , tracing and isolating , while practicing mitigating behaviors, such as masking, washing of hands and surfaces and social distancing with the utmost discipline as we attempt to resume economic behavior. This is all we have. No one will come to save us or our economy. We are it. We must save ourselves with our own behavior. Remember, there is no other guy we are all the other guy. Refusal to participate in testing, tracing, isolating, and mitigating behaviors is not a defense of liberty but an assault on the health and wellbeing of others and on ones own health and wellbeing. Science is the proper paradigm to employ not politics. First science then evidence-based policy. Unilateral action during a regional crisis is not a good look. It presents as panic or hubris, neither of which is helpful nor effective not to mention embarrassing. Public poise is something governments cannot afford to lose.

Faith that we will persevere and prevail is essential but not sufficient. We must also have the discipline to confront the harsh conditions of our present situation however scary they may be. Do not dismiss the effectiveness of diligently practiced mitigating behaviors. They save lives while conducting business every day in industry, hospitals, and the military. We are not re-inventing the wheel here; we have models. The Madison County Health Department can provide scientific information on which governmental bodies, municipalities, and institutions, and individuals can responsibly act. The Madison County Health Departments Dashboard can provide granular information for effective, evidence based continuous monitoring and management. Let us not forget that persons with mental illness issues deserve parity.

If by our actions we feed fear, defiance, and hubris, chaos will follow. If through courage and discipline we practice evidence-based policies and behaviors with grace under pressure, we will get through this and prevail. We have met our enemy and our savior and they are both US.

Larry Evans

$10 for $20 Half Price Deals at deals.riverbender.com

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Letter To The Editor: Comments About Madison County Decision To Open Early In Pandemic - RiverBender.com

Human Behavior

Should you fly yet? Here’s what expert scientists say – WBAL Baltimore

Video above: Virus impact forcing massive job cuts at BoeingAs restrictions open up, and more Americans consider traveling to shake off the quarantine cabin fever, the safest way to travel may not seem so safe. Riding in an airplane, enclosed with people around you, seems like the opposite of social distancing. But with some workplaces requiring travel again, and the prospect of getting away becoming all the more tempting, how, if at all, do you air travel safely?Why the fear of flying?The primary concern with flying or traveling by bus or train is sitting within six feet of an infected person. Remember: Even asymptomatic people can transmit. Your risk of infection directly corresponds to your dose of exposure, which is determined by your duration of time exposed and the amount of virus-contaminated droplets in the air.A secondary concern is contact with contaminated surfaces. When an infected person contaminates a shared armrest, airport restroom handle, seat tray or other item, the virus can survive for hours though it degrades over time. If you touch that surface and then touch your mouth or nose, you put yourself at risk of infection.Before you book, thinkWhile there is no way to make air travel 100% safe, there are ways to make it safer. It's important to think through the particulars for each trip.One approach to your decision-making is to use what occupational health experts call the hierarchy of controls. This approach does two things. It focuses on strategies to control exposures close to the source. Second, it minimizes how much you have to rely on individual human behavior to control exposure. It's important to remember you may be infectious and everyone around you may also be infectious.The best way to control exposure is to eliminate the hazard. Since we cannot eliminate the new coronavirus, ask yourself if you can eliminate the trip. Think extra hard if you are older or have preexisting conditions, or if you are going to visit someone in that position.If you are healthy and those you visit are healthy, think about ways to substitute the hazard. Is it possible to drive? This would allow you to have more control over minimizing your exposures, particularly if the distance is less than a day of travel.You're going, now what?If you choose to fly, check out airlines' policies on seating and boarding. Some are minimizing capacity and spacing passengers by not using middle seats and having empty rows. Others are boarding from the back of the plane. Some that were criticized for filling their planes to capacity have announced plans to allow customers to cancel their flights if the flight goes over 70% passenger seating capacity.Federal and state guidance is changing constantly, so make sure you look up the most recent guidance from government agencies and the airlines and airport you are using for additional advice, and current policies or restrictions.While this may sound counterintuitive, consider booking multiple, shorter flights. This will decrease the likelihood of having to use the lavatory and the duration of exposure to an infectious person on the plane.After you book, select a window seat if possible. If you consider the six-foot radius circle around you, having a wall on one side would directly reduce the number of people you are exposed to during the flight in half, not to mention all the people going up and down the aisle.Also, check out your airline to see their engineering controls that are designed or put into practice to isolate hazards. These include ventilation systems, on-board barriers and electrostatic disinfectant sprays on flights.When the ventilation system on planes is operating, planes have a very high ratio of outside fresh air to recirculated air about 10 times higher than most commercial buildings. Plus, most planes' ventilation systems have HEPA filters. These are at least 99.9% effective at removing particles that are 0.3 microns in diameter and more efficient at removing both smaller and larger particles.How to be safe from shuttle to seatFrom checking in, to going through security to boarding, you will be touching many surfaces. To minimize risk:Bring hand wipes to disinfect surfaces such as your seat belt and your personal belongings, like your passport. If you cannot find hand wipes, bring a small washcloth soaked in a bleach solution in a zip bag. This would probably freak TSA out less than your personal spray bottle, and viruses are not likely to grow on a cloth with a bleach solution. But remember: More bleach is not better and can be unsafe. You only need one tablespoon in four cups of water to be effective.Bring plastic zip bags for personal items that others may handle, such as your ID. Bring extra bags so you can put these things in a new bag after you get the chance to disinfect them.Wash your hands or use hand sanitizer as often as you can. While soap and water is most effective, hand sanitizer is helpful after you wash to get any parts you may have missed.Once you get to your window seat, stay put.Wear a mask. If you already have an N95 respirator, consider using it but others can also provide protection. We do not recommend purchasing N95 until health care workers have an adequate supply. Technically, it should also be tested to make sure you have a good fit. We do not recommend the use of gloves, as that can lead to a false sense of security and has been associated with reduced hand hygiene practices.If you are thinking about flying with kids, there are special considerations. Getting a young child to adhere to wearing a mask and maintaining good hygiene behaviors at home is hard enough; it may be impossible to do so when flying. Children under 2 should not wear a mask.Each day, we are all constantly faced with decisions about our own personal comfort with risk. Arming yourself with specific knowledge about your airport and airline, and maximizing your use of protective measures that you have control over, can reduce your risk. A good analogy might be that every time you get in the car to drive somewhere there is risk of an accident, but there is a big difference between driving the speed limit with your seat belt on and driving blindfolded, 60 miles an hour through the middle of town.

Video above: Virus impact forcing massive job cuts at Boeing

As restrictions open up, and more Americans consider traveling to shake off the quarantine cabin fever, the safest way to travel may not seem so safe. Riding in an airplane, enclosed with people around you, seems like the opposite of social distancing. But with some workplaces requiring travel again, and the prospect of getting away becoming all the more tempting, how, if at all, do you air travel safely?

The primary concern with flying or traveling by bus or train is sitting within six feet of an infected person. Remember: Even asymptomatic people can transmit. Your risk of infection directly corresponds to your dose of exposure, which is determined by your duration of time exposed and the amount of virus-contaminated droplets in the air.

A secondary concern is contact with contaminated surfaces. When an infected person contaminates a shared armrest, airport restroom handle, seat tray or other item, the virus can survive for hours though it degrades over time. If you touch that surface and then touch your mouth or nose, you put yourself at risk of infection.

While there is no way to make air travel 100% safe, there are ways to make it safer. It's important to think through the particulars for each trip.

One approach to your decision-making is to use what occupational health experts call the hierarchy of controls. This approach does two things. It focuses on strategies to control exposures close to the source. Second, it minimizes how much you have to rely on individual human behavior to control exposure. It's important to remember you may be infectious and everyone around you may also be infectious.

The best way to control exposure is to eliminate the hazard. Since we cannot eliminate the new coronavirus, ask yourself if you can eliminate the trip. Think extra hard if you are older or have preexisting conditions, or if you are going to visit someone in that position.

If you are healthy and those you visit are healthy, think about ways to substitute the hazard. Is it possible to drive? This would allow you to have more control over minimizing your exposures, particularly if the distance is less than a day of travel.

If you choose to fly, check out airlines' policies on seating and boarding. Some are minimizing capacity and spacing passengers by not using middle seats and having empty rows. Others are boarding from the back of the plane. Some that were criticized for filling their planes to capacity have announced plans to allow customers to cancel their flights if the flight goes over 70% passenger seating capacity.

Federal and state guidance is changing constantly, so make sure you look up the most recent guidance from government agencies and the airlines and airport you are using for additional advice, and current policies or restrictions.

While this may sound counterintuitive, consider booking multiple, shorter flights. This will decrease the likelihood of having to use the lavatory and the duration of exposure to an infectious person on the plane.

After you book, select a window seat if possible. If you consider the six-foot radius circle around you, having a wall on one side would directly reduce the number of people you are exposed to during the flight in half, not to mention all the people going up and down the aisle.

Also, check out your airline to see their engineering controls that are designed or put into practice to isolate hazards. These include ventilation systems, on-board barriers and electrostatic disinfectant sprays on flights.

When the ventilation system on planes is operating, planes have a very high ratio of outside fresh air to recirculated air about 10 times higher than most commercial buildings. Plus, most planes' ventilation systems have HEPA filters. These are at least 99.9% effective at removing particles that are 0.3 microns in diameter and more efficient at removing both smaller and larger particles.

From checking in, to going through security to boarding, you will be touching many surfaces. To minimize risk:

Bring hand wipes to disinfect surfaces such as your seat belt and your personal belongings, like your passport. If you cannot find hand wipes, bring a small washcloth soaked in a bleach solution in a zip bag. This would probably freak TSA out less than your personal spray bottle, and viruses are not likely to grow on a cloth with a bleach solution. But remember: More bleach is not better and can be unsafe. You only need one tablespoon in four cups of water to be effective.

Bring plastic zip bags for personal items that others may handle, such as your ID. Bring extra bags so you can put these things in a new bag after you get the chance to disinfect them.

Wash your hands or use hand sanitizer as often as you can. While soap and water is most effective, hand sanitizer is helpful after you wash to get any parts you may have missed.

Once you get to your window seat, stay put.

Wear a mask. If you already have an N95 respirator, consider using it but others can also provide protection. We do not recommend purchasing N95 until health care workers have an adequate supply. Technically, it should also be tested to make sure you have a good fit. We do not recommend the use of gloves, as that can lead to a false sense of security and has been associated with reduced hand hygiene practices.

If you are thinking about flying with kids, there are special considerations. Getting a young child to adhere to wearing a mask and maintaining good hygiene behaviors at home is hard enough; it may be impossible to do so when flying. Children under 2 should not wear a mask.

Each day, we are all constantly faced with decisions about our own personal comfort with risk. Arming yourself with specific knowledge about your airport and airline, and maximizing your use of protective measures that you have control over, can reduce your risk. A good analogy might be that every time you get in the car to drive somewhere there is risk of an accident, but there is a big difference between driving the speed limit with your seat belt on and driving blindfolded, 60 miles an hour through the middle of town.

See the original post:
Should you fly yet? Here's what expert scientists say - WBAL Baltimore

Human Behavior

The US is reopening. It should try Canadas double bubbles first. – Vox.com

The United States is charging ahead with reopening. All 50 states are now moving to reopen their economies, even though only three meet basic criteria to do so safely. Coronavirus cases are rising in some states, yet public officials there are still choosing to open bars, restaurants, and more.

Meanwhile, Canada is trying out a much more modest experiment in easing social distancing. Based on early data, it seems to be working out.

Our northern neighbor has been doing far better than the US at keeping case numbers down, partly because its political system works. Its per capita Covid-19 death rate is roughly half that of Americas.

So, lately, some Canadian provinces have begun allowing people to form double bubbles. That means two households can now make a pact to hang out with and even hug each other, so long as they agree to stay distanced from everyone else. The hope is that doubling the family bubble will reduce isolation and its toll on mental health, while also helping with things like child care. This is meant to be an intermediate step before opening up further.

Canada borrowed the strategy from New Zealand, which used it to great effect before virtually eliminating the coronavirus. A few European countries, such as Germany, have also tried it before progressing to more drastic reopening measures.

In Canada, New Brunswick became the first province to permit its population to double-bubble on April 24. Newfoundland and Labrador followed on April 30. And Nova Scotia gave the go-ahead on May 15.

These provinces could afford to ease social distancing restrictions because they have very low case numbers. (Throughout all of May, none of them surged above 15 new cases per day.) Its still deemed too risky to do this right now in Quebec or Ontario, where community transmission is much higher.

Now that more than two weeks have passed since some provinces allowed people to double-bubble, we can expect that any resultant rise in daily new cases would be showing up in the data. But the data show no such rise.

In the last few weeks, there has not been a rise in cases in fact the opposite is true, Isaac Bogoch, an infectious disease specialist at Toronto General Hospital, told me. This is a very smart and creative approach to the early phases of lifting the public health restrictions were living under.

Some American experts, meanwhile, sounded a note of frustration that the US is adopting a more aggressive approach in its rush to return to normal. There are many gradations in between total shutdown and wholesale reopening, and although the US is adopting a phased approach to reopening, it seems to be leapfrogging over some of the more modest gradations like the double bubble. Rather than telling people they can link up with one other household, some states are telling them they can go to bars, where theyll come into contact with far more people.

That raises the question: Would it be wise to try double-bubbling even before opening up a bunch of businesses?

Yes, I think this is something we need to be considering, said Julia Marcus, an infectious disease epidemiologist at Harvard. To me it seems like theres a much higher risk when were considering something like opening bars, compared with two families carefully agreeing to have playdates between their kids.

She added that what we particularly want to avoid is the occurrence of super-spreader events, where one person can infect many others at once. Thats less likely to happen in the scenario of two families whove agreed to be in a bubble together. Even if one of them is exposed and the infection is passed between those two families, the overall risk to the community is lower than in a situation where you have 300 people in a crowded bar, Marcus said.

Plus, she added, if we can give people some choices for human contact with relatively low risk, they may not feel the need to go to a bar.

Canadas embrace of double bubbles seems to have inspired some individuals in the US to adopt the approach, too, even in the absence of official US recommendations to that effect. But just because it makes for reasonable policy in New Brunswick or New Zealand does not mean its advisable everywhere else.

First, the double-bubble approach shouldnt be tried in a city where community transmission is high and new cases are rising. For example, the experts I spoke to said this wouldnt have been appropriate in New York City at the peak of its outbreak, and its probably still too risky there. But they said its something that should be done in areas that are ready.

Assuming that a region is doing well in terms of new cases and the amount of community spread, this seems to me like a perfect example of how harm reduction can be applied to social distancing, Marcus said. She argues that social contact is a basic human need and people are going to engage in it whether experts like it or not, so giving them a way to do it thats as low-risk as possible is better than insisting on total abstinence from socializing.

But how low do a regions numbers have to get before its safe enough to double-bubble?

Theres no magic number. Its going to be a value judgment, an opinion, Bogoch said. I know its not nice to talk about, but we have to make a value judgment on whats an acceptable number of cases and deaths. It falls to government officials, under the guidance of public health specialists, to make these determinations.

Carolyn Cannuscio, a social epidemiologist at the University of Pennsylvania, warned me in April that attempts to form a closed circle of people who can safely socialize are not as safe as they might seem. Each household will have some baseline risk of exposure from going to get necessary items like groceries. And even if both households agree to the same stringent set of rules (for example, always wearing masks when outside the home), not everyone will stick to them with the same fidelity. People sometimes cheat on their social contracts or simply forget to communicate small lapses, especially to people who live outside their household.

This becomes riskier when youre in a place with higher rates of community transmission. So, even now, Cannuscio said shed avoid double-bubbling if she were in such a place.

But, she added, In areas of low transmission, I would be willing to consider this. However, the person I most want to see is my mother, so I personally would prioritize her safety over all other considerations. For people with elderly or infirm family members they want to visit, they should limit other social contacts and not make their vulnerable family members susceptible to popped bubbles!

In other words, its not necessarily a bad idea to double-bubble with a senior or an immunocompromised friend, but if you choose to do that, you need to be extra careful about maintaining social distance from everybody else.

If its prudent to try double-bubbling even before opening up various businesses, why havent US authorities promoted it? Why has the country skipped over that phase?

One obvious answer is the economy. The fact that some 40 million Americans are unemployed is certainly fueling the push to reopen as many businesses as possible, as fast as possible. People need incomes, and some think that economic collapse must be averted even if that means the death toll rises.

But Marcus said theres another reason why US authorities jumped straight from total lockdown to relatively dramatic reopening measures (like allowing barbershops and bars to operate again) without considering the options in between.

We have a reluctance in this country to embrace harm reduction, Marcus said. Telling Americans in certain areas that they can see one other household would require trusting that giving them an inch wont mean they take a mile. Historically, one of the concerns about harm reduction that always comes up is this fear that if we give people any ideas about risky behavior, it will promote more risk-taking.

In a sense, the USs phased reopening could be seen as a form of harm reduction; its certainly safer than opening everything up immediately, without any phases at all. But the point is that to go from telling everybody to shelter-in-place to reopening certain businesses is still a big leap and the US has failed to give individuals choices in between.

While Canada tends to look relatively favorably on harm reduction, Marcus said she sees a lot of the opposite approach in the US. She cited resistance to sex education and to the HPV vaccine (for fear that they will lead teens to have sex earlier) and opposition to syringe service programs (for fear that they will promote drug use).

I think it comes down to having a more puritanical outlook on human behavior, Marcus said. The concerns often come from a place of moral judgment about what constitutes responsible behavior thats why we see the concerns come up most often in a context of sex and drugs.

Study after study has shown that these concerns are misguided: Harm reduction tends to improve health outcomes, while more moralizing or black-and-white approaches (like abstinence-only education) tend to backfire.

This is as likely to apply to pandemic-era socializing as to anything else.

If we dont provide harm reduction guidance that acknowledges the risks people are already taking and in some cases need to take, we are missing an opportunity to mitigate risk, Marcus said. Instead, people might choose to see lots of different people one after another, with more potential to expose themselves or others.

Unfortunately, in the US, many of us are already seeing examples of the latter behavior among our friends, families, and neighbors who want to socialize.

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The US is reopening. It should try Canadas double bubbles first. - Vox.com