Category Archives: Human Behavior

Human Behavior

Day-trading tales remind us that humans are poor investors and even worse traders – MarketWatch

The shocking death of Alex Kearns, a 20-year-old day trader who recently died by suicide, highlights a broader caution to young people: do not get sucked into digital trading platforms no matter whether they have noble-sounding names or are free. You will most likely lose your money or worse. There are better ways to make money.

With the exception of people like Warren Buffett, humans are poor investors and even worse traders. Sure, the occasional human might get lucky, but in general, the odds are heavily stacked against you. Unless you have some special information or expertise, you are best off investing in a market index as early in life as possible and enjoying the benefits of compounding.

Read:The rise of mom-and-pop investors in the stock market will end in tears, warns billionaire Cooperman

I have been teaching and engaging in systematic investing for over 20 years. My core message to all students and professionals is to not overestimate their competence or the quality of their beliefs, but to continually challenge them.

The second reason for caution is more sinister. It involves the objective functions of the platforms where you park your money. How do they make money if they are free to users?

Digital trading platforms make money through a complex web of rebates for funneling trading activity downstream to various venues, and collecting interest on money flowing through the system. Their objective is to therefore maximize the flow of dollars through the system, period. All accounts of any size are welcome. How you perform is largely irrelevant to their business model as long as there are some intermittent rewards for the user, like a winning trade. Indeed, the experience created is one of gamification. It is fun, like being in a casino, which is pumped with oxygen to stimulate flow. As a former designer of Google recently remarked if youre an app, how do you keep people hooked? Turn yourself into a slot machine.

But digital platforms are worse than casinos, where most games are relatively simple and easy to understand. And the casino doesnt loan you money to make your bets.

The trouble is that most people, including professionals, dont often understand the subtle but important nuances of the financial products they trade, which increase in complexity by the day. Many products, for example, provide free leverage, like a triple-levered version of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY, +1.07%, an exchange-traded fund that tracks the S&P 500 index. A common misconception is that the triple-levered version, which is called a derivative product, will result in triple the performance of the single-levered ETF. In reality, however, performance can diverge considerably even over a few days, depending on how the product is managed, which is typically in fine print that retail investors dont read. The marketplace is full of ways to harm yourself.

A student from my most recent Systematic Investing class at New York University gleefully shared how the class had helped him make 150% on his investment and pay off his student loan. I congratulated him, but told him he could just as easily have lost more than that amount, and to be cautious about leverage. A less cheerful account from 10 years ago involved a more experienced trader, whose family money was wiped out during the flash crash of May 2010 due to how his orders were executed. He never recovered it.

The bottom line is this: dont trust digital platforms that appear to be free. You will pay the price one way or another and may not be aware of it. Over the long run, the more you trade, the more you will lose. And do not trade products you dont understand, especially if they involve fine print.

But what if you really want to trade? Perhaps it is an addiction you cannot control. Perhaps it is the rush of making money, or engaging with the markets for its own sake and taking risk intelligently. In this case, one path I recommend is to apply the scientific method to the problem using large amounts of data. This requires a conceptualization of the problem, hypotheses, data and algorithms. Specifically, it requires a process that is applied consistently to the data and is not impacted by emotions or preferences. This is more involved in terms of setup than making discretionary day-trading calls, but if it done properly, will provide you with outcomes that are based on applying a concept consistently instead of becoming a victim of fear or greed.

A second path I recommend requires an analysis of fundamental factors like the economy or the companys business prospects. For example, there are significant opportunities created by crises like the current pandemic. We might analyze, for example, what changes COVID-19 will induce in human behavior that are likely to be permanent.

One such irreversible trend is virtualization, which favors entities and sectors where products and services can be delivered digitally, and punishes those with large physical assets and heavy debt burdens. In my analysis, I drew parallels with the previous crisis of 2008-09 and teased out what is likely to be different about the recovery this time. For example, commercial real estate rebounded incredibly strongly after the financial crisis, but this would be surprising with the increase in remote work.

Such an analysis can be supported by data, but there is no getting around the hard work of poring through financial statements and assessing economic trends, and then picking the investments most likely to profit if you are right about your assumptions.

There are very few things in life that are more important than money. Acquiring it is difficult and growing it is challenging. The last thing you want to do is gamble. Do not trust the objective functions of digital trading platforms since their objectives are unlikely to align with yours. Think deeply and invest wisely.

Vasant Dhar is a professor at New York Universitys Stern School of Business and the director of the Ph.D. program at the universitys Center for Data Science. He is the founder of SCT Capital Management, a machine-learning-based systematic hedge fund in New York City.

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Day-trading tales remind us that humans are poor investors and even worse traders - MarketWatch

Human Behavior

"The Biggest Bluff: on luck, life and poker – WHYY

Guest: Maria Konnikova

MARIA KONNIKOVA, an author and Ph.D in psychology had a run of bad luck, but oddly found that poker was the perfect vehicle for her to explore her interest chance, skill, and human behavior. She went all in on No Limit Texas Holdem under the tutelage of a renowned Poker champ, eventually becoming a poker pro, winning $300,000 and playing in the World Series of Poker. Konnikova writes about her journey with cards in her new book The Biggest Bluff: How I Learned to Pay Attention, Master Myself, and Win. Well talk to her about luck vs. skill, reading people, competing in a male-dominated sport, and the life lessons she learned along the way.

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"The Biggest Bluff: on luck, life and poker - WHYY

Human Behavior

Changes in contact patterns shape the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China – Science Magazine

Who and what next?

The coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has brought tighter restrictions on the daily lives of millions of people, but we do not yet understand what measures are the most effective. Zhang et al. modeled virus transmission in Wuhan, China, in February 2020, investigating the effects of interventions ranging from patient management to social isolation. Age-mixing patterns were estimated by contact surveys conducted in Wuhan and Shanghai at the beginning of February 2020. Once people reduced their average daily contacts from 14 to 20 down to 2, transmission rapidly fell below the epidemic threshold. The model also showed that preemptive school closures helped to reduce transmission, although alone they would not prevent a COVID-19 outbreak. Limiting human mixing to within households appeared to be the most effective measure.

Science, this issue p. 1481

Intense nonpharmaceutical interventions were put in place in China to stop transmission of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). As transmission intensifies in other countries, the interplay between age, contact patterns, social distancing, susceptibility to infection, and COVID-19 dynamics remains unclear. To answer these questions, we analyze contact survey data for Wuhan and Shanghai before and during the outbreak and contact-tracing information from Hunan province. Daily contacts were reduced seven- to eightfold during the COVID-19 social distancing period, with most interactions restricted to the household. We find that children 0 to 14 years of age are less susceptible to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection than adults 15 to 64 years of age (odds ratio 0.34, 95% confidence interval 0.24 to 0.49), whereas individuals more than 65 years of age are more susceptible to infection (odds ratio 1.47, 95% confidence interval 1.12 to 1.92). Based on these data, we built a transmission model to study the impact of social distancing and school closure on transmission. We find that social distancing alone, as implemented in China during the outbreak, is sufficient to control COVID-19. Although proactive school closures cannot interrupt transmission on their own, they can reduce peak incidence by 40 to 60% and delay the epidemic.

The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) began in Wuhan City, China, in December 2019 and quickly spread globally, with 2,063,161 cases reported in 185 countries or regions as of 16 April 2020 (1). A total of 82,692 cases of COVID-19, including 4632 deaths, have been reported in mainland China, including 50,333 cases in Wuhan City and 628 cases in Shanghai City (2). The epidemic in Wuhan and in the rest of China subsided after implementation of strict containment measures and movement restrictions, with recent cases originating from travel (3). However, key questions remain about the age profile of susceptibility to infection, how social distancing alters age-specific contact patterns, and how these factors interact to affect transmission. These questions are relevant to the choice of control policies for governments and policy-makers around the world. In this study, we evaluate changes in mixing patterns linked to social distancing by collecting contact data in the midst of the epidemic in Wuhan and Shanghai. We also estimate age differences in susceptibility to infection based on contact-tracing data gathered by the Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), China. Based on these empirical data, we developed a mathematical disease transmission model to disentangle how transmission is affected by age differences in the biology of COVID-19 infection and altered mixing patterns owing to social distancing. Additionally, we project the impact of social distancing and school closure on COVID-19 transmission.

To estimate changes in age-mixing patterns associated with COVID-19 interventions, we performed contact surveys in two cities: Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak, and Shanghai, one of the largest and most densely populated cities in southeast China. Shanghai experienced extensive importation of COVID-19 cases from Wuhan as well as local transmission (4). The surveys were conducted from 1 February 2020 to 10 February 2020, as transmission of COVID-19 peaked across China and stringent interventions were put in place. Participants in Wuhan were asked to complete a questionnaire describing their contact behavior (5, 6) on two different days: (i) a regular weekday between 24 December 2019 and 30 December 2019, before the COVID-19 outbreak was officially recognized by the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission (used as baseline); and (ii) the day before the interview (outbreak period). Participants in Shanghai were asked to complete the same questionnaire used for Wuhan but only report contacts for the outbreak period. For the baseline period in Shanghai, we relied on a survey conducted in 20172018 that followed the same design (7). In these surveys, a contact was defined as either a two-way conversation involving three or more words in the physical presence of another person or a direct physical contact (e.g., a handshake). Details are given in the supplementary materials (SM, sections 1 and 2).

We analyzed a total of 1245 contacts reported by 636 study participants in Wuhan and 1296 contacts reported by 557 participants in Shanghai. In Wuhan, the average daily number of contacts per participant was significantly reduced, from 14.6 for the baseline period (mean contacts weighted by age structure: 14.0) to 2.0 for the outbreak period (mean contacts weighted by age structure: 1.9) (p < 0.001). The reduction in contacts was significant for all stratifications by sex, age group, type of profession, and household size (Table 1). A larger reduction was observed in Shanghai, where the average daily number of contacts decreased from 18.8 (mean contacts weighted by age structure: 19.8) to 2.3 (mean contacts weighted by age structure: 2.1). Although an average individual in Shanghai reported more contacts than one in Wuhan on a regular weekday, this difference essentially disappeared during the COVID-19 outbreak period. A similar decrease in the number of contacts was found in the United Kingdom during the COVID-19 lockdown period (8).

N is the number of participants who provided non-missing contact data.

The typical features of age-mixing patterns (6, 7) emerge in Wuhan and Shanghai when we consider the baseline period (Fig. 1, A and D). These features can be illustrated in the form of age-stratified contact matrices (provided as ready-to-use tables in the SM, section 3.6), where each cell represents the average number of contacts that an individual has with other individuals, stratified by age groups. The bottom left corner of the matrix, corresponding to contacts between school-age children, is where the largest number of contacts is recorded. The contribution of contacts in the workplace is visible in the central part of the matrix, and the three diagonals (from bottom left to top right) represent contacts between household members. By contrast, for the outbreak period when strict social distancing policies were in place, many of the above-mentioned features disappear, essentially leaving the sole contribution of household mixing (Fig. 1, B and E). In particular, assortative contacts between school-age individuals are fully removed, as illustrated by differencing baseline and outbreak matrices (Fig. 1, C and F). Overall, contacts during the outbreak mostly occurred at home with household members (94.1% in Wuhan and 78.5% in Shanghai). Thus, the outbreak contact matrix nearly coincides with the within-household contact matrix in both study sites, and the pattern of assortativity by age observed for regular days almost entirely disappears (SM, section 3.6). These findings are consistent with trends in within-city mobility data, which indicate an 86.9% drop in Wuhan and 74.5% drop in Shanghai between early January and early February (see SM, section 4). Such a large decrease in internal mobility is consistent with most of the contacts occurring in the household during the outbreak period. Of note, the strict social distancing measures implemented in Wuhan and Shanghai did not entirely zero out contacts in the workplace, because essential workers continued to perform their activities (as observed in our data; see SM, section 3.5).

(A) Baseline period contact matrix for Wuhan (regular weekday only). Each cell of the matrix represents the mean number of contacts that an individual in a given age group has with other individuals, stratified by age groups. The color intensity represents the number of contacts. To construct the matrix, we performed bootstrap sampling with replacement of survey participants weighted by the age distribution of the actual population of Wuhan. Every cell of the matrix represents an average over 100 bootstrapped realizations. (B) Same as (A), but for the outbreak contact matrix for Wuhan. (C) Difference between the baseline period contact matrix and the outbreak contact matrix in Wuhan. (D) Same as (A), but for Shanghai. (E and F) Same as (B) and (C), but for Shanghai.

The estimated mixing patterns are based on self-reported contacts that can thus be affected by various biases. In particular, reported contacts for the baseline period in Wuhan may be prone to recall bias because contacts were assessed retrospectively. Further, because of the retrospective nature of the baseline survey in Wuhan, we were unable to account for the lower number of contacts during weekends. The more complete data from Shanghai did not suffer recall bias and allowed us to weight contacts for weekdays and weekends; sensitivity analyses suggest that this has little impact on results (SM, section 8.3). Another possible bias is that survey participants may have felt pressure to minimize reported contacts that occurred during the outbreak, given that social distancing was in place and strictly enforced by the government, even if the anonymity and confidentiality of the survey were emphasized. However, results are robust to inflating reported contacts outside of the home severalfold, suggesting that these compliance and social acceptability biases linked to the outbreak period do not affect our main findings (SM, section 8.2). Another caveat is that in parallel to population-level social distancing measures, case-based interventions were implemented and could have affected contacts, including rapid isolation of confirmed and suspected cases and quarantine of close contacts for 14 days. However, only a small portion of the population in the two study sites was affected by contact tracing and quarantine, thus having little to no effect on average contact patterns in the general population.

Next, to understand the interplay between social distancing interventions, changes in human mixing patterns, and outbreak dynamics, we need to consider potential age differences in susceptibility to infection. This is currently a topic of debate, because little information on the age profile of asymptomatic cases is available (9, 10). To this aim, we analyzed COVID-19 contact-tracing information gleaned from detailed epidemiological field investigations conducted by the Hunan CDC (SM, section 5). Briefly, all close contacts of COVID-19 cases reported in Hunan province were placed under medical observation for 14 days and were tested using real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). Those who tested positive were considered as SARS-CoV-2 infections. We estimated the odds ratios (ORs) for a contact of a certain age group to be infected, relative to a reference age group. We performed generalized linear mixed model regression to account for clustering and potential correlation structure of contacts exposed to the same index case (e.g., in the household). We included the age group and gender of a contact, type of contact, and whether the contact traveled to Hubei or Wuhan as regression covariates (SM, section 5). We found that susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 infection increased with age. Young individuals (aged 0 to 14 years) had a lower risk of infection than individuals aged 15 to 64 years {OR = 0.34 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.24 to 0.49], p < 0.0001}. By contrast, older individuals aged 65 years and older had a higher risk of infection than adults aged 15 to 64 years [OR = 1.47 (95% CI: 1.12 to 1.92), p = 0.005]. These findings are in contrast with a previous study in Shenzhen, where susceptibility to infection did not change with age (9).

Next, we explore how our data can inform control strategies for COVID-19. A key parameter regulating the dynamics of an epidemic is the basic reproduction number (R0), which corresponds to the average number of secondary cases generated by an index case in a fully susceptible population. We estimated the impact of interventions on R0, relying on our age-specific estimates of susceptibility to infection and contact patterns before and during interventions. We used the next-generation matrix approach to quantify changes in R0 (11) (SM, section 6). Additionally, to illustrate the impact of age-mixing patterns on the dynamics of the epidemic, we developed a simple SIR model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission (SM, section 6). In the model, the population is divided into three epidemiological categories: susceptible, infectious, and removed (either recovered or deceased individuals), stratified by 14 age groups. Susceptible individuals can become infectious after contact with an infectious individual according to the estimated age-specific susceptibility to infection. The rate at which contacts occur is determined by the estimated mixing patterns of each age group. The mean time interval between two consecutive generations of cases was taken to be 5.1 days, assuming it aligns with the mean of the serial interval reported by Zhang et al. (3).

In the early phases of COVID-19 spread in Wuhan, before interventions were put in place, R0 values were estimated to range between 2.0 and 3.5 (1218). In this analysis, we extended this range from 1 to 4 for the baseline period (i.e., before interventions). We find that the considerable changes of mixing patterns observed in Wuhan and Shanghai during the social distancing period led to a drastic decrease in R0 (Fig. 2). When we consider contact matrices representing the outbreak period, keeping the same baseline disease transmissibility as in the preintervention period, the reproductive number drops well below the epidemic threshold in Wuhan (Fig. 2A) and Shanghai (Fig. 2B). This finding is robust to relaxing assumptions about age differences in susceptibility to infection; the epidemic is still well controlled if SARS-CoV-2 infection is assumed to be equally likely in all age groups (Fig. 2, A and B). We also performed sensitivity analyses regarding possible recall and compliance biases of self-reported contacts as well as the definition of contact (i.e., considering only contacts lasting more than 5 min). The results are consistent with those reported here (SM, section 8).

(A) Estimated R0 during the outbreak (mean and 95% CI), as a function of baseline R0 (i.e., that derived by using the contact matrix estimated for the baseline period). The figure refers to Wuhan and includes both the scenario accounting for the estimated susceptibility to infection by age and the scenario where we assume that all individuals are equally susceptible to infection. The distribution of the transmission rate is estimated through the next-generation matrix approach by using 100 bootstrapped contact matrices for the baseline period to obtain the desired R0 values. We then use the estimated distribution of the transmission rate and the bootstrapped outbreak contact matrices to estimate R0 for the outbreak period. The 95% CIs account for the uncertainty on the distribution of the transmission rate, mixing patterns, and susceptibility to infection by age. (B) Same as (A), but for Shanghai. (C) Infection attack rate 1 year after the initial case of COVID-19 (mean and 95% CI) as a function of the baseline R0. The estimates are made by simulating the SIR transmission model (see SM) using the contact matrix for the baseline period and considering the estimated susceptibility to infection by age and assuming that all individuals are equally susceptible to infection. The 95% CIs account for the uncertainty on the mixing patterns and susceptibility to infection by age. (D) Same as (C), but for Shanghai.

In an uncontrolled epidemic (without intervention measures, travel restrictions, or spontaneous behavioral responses of the population) and for R0 in the range of 2 to 3, we estimate the mean infection attack rate to be in the range 53 to 92% after a year of SARS-CoV-2 circulation, with slight variation between Wuhan (Fig. 2C) and Shanghai (Fig. 2D). These estimates should be considered as an upper bound of the infection attack rate because they are based on a compartmental model that does not account for high clustering of contacts (e.g., repeated contacts among household members). If we consider a scenario in which social distancing measures are implemented early on, as the new virus emerges, the estimated R0 remains under the epidemic threshold and thus the epidemic cannot take off in either location. Furthermore, we estimate that the magnitude of interventions implemented in Wuhan and Shanghai would have been enough to block transmission for an R0 before the interventions of up to ~6 in Wuhan and ~7.8 in Shanghai.

Next, we use the model to estimate the impact of preemptive mass school closure. We considered two different contact pattern scenarios, based on data from Shanghai: contacts estimated during vacation periods (7) and contacts estimated during regular weekdays, after all contacts occurring in school settings have been removed (7). Both scenarios represent a simplification of a school closure strategy. Indeed, school closures in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in China have entailed interruption of all educational on-site services. However, mixing patterns measured during school vacations indicate that a fraction of children still attend additional educational activities, as is typical in Chinese cities. On the other hand, when removing all contacts in the school setting, we do not consider potential trickle-down effects on the mixing patterns of other age groups; for instance, parents may need to leave work to take care of school-age children. Our modeling approach indicates that limiting contact patterns to those observed during vacations would interrupt transmission for baseline R0 up to 1.5 (Fig. 3, A and C). Removing all school contacts would do the same for baseline R0 up to 1.2. If we apply these interventions to a COVID-19 scenario, assuming a baseline R0 of 2 to 3.5, we can achieve a noticeable decrease in infection attack rate and peak incidence and a delay in the epidemic, but transmission is not interrupted (Fig. 3, B and D). For instance, for a baseline R0 of 2.5 and assuming a vacation mixing pattern, the mean peak daily incidence is reduced by about 64%. In the corresponding scenario where school contacts are removed, we estimate a reduction of about 42%. Overall, school-based closure policies are not sufficient to entirely prevent a COVID-19 outbreak, but they can affect disease dynamics and hence hospital surge capacity. It is important to stress that individuals aged 5 to 19 years in Shanghai represent 9.5% of the population (19), markedly lower than the mean in China [16.8% (19)] and other countries [including Western countries; e.g., 19.7% in the United States (20)].

(A) Estimated R0 during the outbreak (mean and 95% CI), as a function of baseline R0 (i.e., that derived by using the contact matrix estimated for the baseline period). The figure refers to Shanghai and the scenario accounting for the estimated susceptibility to infection by age. Three contact patterns are considered: (i) as estimated during the COVID-19 outbreak, (ii) as estimated during school vacations (7), and (iii) as estimated for the baseline period, but suppressing all contacts at school. (B) Daily incidence of new SARS-CoV-2 infections (mean and 95% CI), as estimated by the SIR model, assuming age-specific susceptibility to infection (see SM). Three mixing patterns are considered: (i) as estimated for the baseline period, (ii) as estimated during school vacations (7), and (iii) as estimated for the baseline period, but suppressing all contacts at school. The inset shows the infection attack rate 1 year after the introduction of the first COVID-19 case (mean and 95% CI). (C) Same as (A), but assuming equal susceptibility to infection by age. (D) Same as (B), but assuming equal susceptibility to infection by age.

The results of this study should be considered in light of the following limitations. In our simulation model, we estimated the effect of social distancing alone; combining social distancing with other interventions would have a synergistic effect to even further reduce transmission. It is likely that population-wide social distancing, case-based strategies, and decontamination efforts all contributed to achieve control in Wuhan and Shanghai, and their effect is difficult to separate out in retrospective observational studies. Our estimates of age differences in susceptibility to infection are based on active testing of 7375 contacts of 136 confirmed index cases. These data suffer from the usual difficulties inherent to the reconstruction of epidemiological links and detection of index cases. Contact data are useful, but seroepidemiology studies will be essential to fully resolve population susceptibility profiles to SARS-CoV-2 infection and disease. Although the age patterns of contacts were similar in the two study locations during the COVID-19 outbreak period, these patterns may not be fully representative of other locations in China and abroad, where social distancing measures may differ. Because reliable estimates of the contribution of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections to transmission are still lacking, we did not explicitly model differences between symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals. We considered a serial interval of 5.1 days (3), based on a prior estimate from China, at a time when case-based and contact-tracing intervention measures were in place, which tends to shorten the interval between successive cases. However, this choice does not affect the estimated changes in reproduction number between the baseline and outbreak periods. Modeling results may underestimate the effect of social distancing interventions because our results concentrate on the number of contacts and ignore the type of social interactions (e.g., increased distance between individuals while in contact or use of a face mask), which may have changed owing to increased awareness of the population (21, 22). Finally, it is worth noting that our school closure simulations are not meant to formulate a full intervention strategy, which would require identification of epidemic triggers to initiate closures and evaluation of different durations of intervention (6). Nonetheless, our modeling exercise provides an indication of the possible impact of a nationwide preemptive strategy on the infection attack rate and peak incidence. To generalize these findings to other contexts, location-specific age-mixing patterns and population structures should be considered. Perhaps most importantly, strict lockdown strategies of the kind implemented in Wuhan, Shanghai, and other regions of the world are extremely disruptive economically and mentally, and more targeted approaches to block transmission are preferable in the long run. We do not necessarily endorse blunt lockdown policies here; we merely describe their impact on COVID-19 transmission based on the Chinese experience.

Our study provides evidence that the interventions put in place in Wuhan and Shanghai, and the resulting changes in human behavior, drastically decreased daily contacts, essentially reducing them to household interactions. This led to a dramatic reduction of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. As lockdown measures are put in place in other locations, human mixing patterns in the outbreak period could be captured by data on within-household contacts, which are available for several countries around the world (57, 2325). Moving forward, it will be particularly important to design targeted strategies for long-term control of COVID-19, including school- and work-based control strategies, along with large-scale testing and contact tracing (2628). Research should concentrate on refining age-specific estimates of susceptibility to infection, disease, and infectiousness, which are instrumental to evaluating the impact of these strategies.

J. Zhang, M. Litvinova, Y. Liang, Y. Wang, W. Wang, S. Zhao, Q. Wu, S. Merler, C. Viboud, A. Vespignani, M. Ajelli, H. Yu, Data and code for changes in contact patterns shape the dynamics of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak in China. Zenodo (2020);.doi:10.5281/zenodo.3775672

M. J. Keeling, P. Rohani, Modeling Infectious Diseases in Humans and Animals (Princeton Univ. Press, 2011), chap. 3.

A. Agresti, An Introduction to Categorical Data Analysis (Wiley, 2018).

R. Anderson, R. May, Infectious Diseases of Humans: Dynamics and Control (Oxford Univ. Press, 1991).

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Changes in contact patterns shape the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China - Science Magazine

Human Behavior

Ford just revealed 2021 F-150: Why this new model is different – Detroit Free Press

The redesigned 2021Ford F-150, America's best-selling pickup truckin history, made its public debut Thursday evening during an online prerecorded celebrationhosted by actor Denis Learyat the Willow Run plantand streamedon YouTube, Facebook and Twitter.

"There's nothing more all-American than a truck that helps you get the job done," Leary said during opening remarks. "The best just got even better when America needs it most."

(Left) Todd Eckert, Ford Motor Co. truck group marketing manager, and Denis Leary, actor, philanthropist and F-150 reveal host, beside the all-new F-150 King Ranch in Antimatter Blue at the official reveal on June 25, 2020.(Photo: Ford Motor Company)

Consumers will see the popular vehiclein showroomslater this year. It is thefirst complete redesign of the F-150 since the 2015model year.

"We've been helping make America go for 117 years, and we're not going to stop now," said Jim Farley, Ford chief operating officer, who opened thepre-reveal message.

And CEO Jim Hackett added, "We're ready to help America tackle big challenges."

Ford engineers describe the new F-150as the toughest, most productive and most powerful pickup in its class designed with its millions of loyal consumers at the center.

"Ford took very few risks with this truck, changed very little. They tuned it,"said Eric Noble, one of the world's top automotive design consultants."They didn't need to take big risks."

More: 2021 Ford F-150 features and tech aim to delight owners and stump the competition

He compared theF-150 interior to aluxurious BentleyMulsanne that starts at $310,000.

When you're the top-selling pickup truck since the beginning of time, no one demands big change, said Noble, president of The CarLabin Orange County, California. And this latest redesign feels like polishing a diamond.

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The F-150 and its F-Series siblings make upabout one of every 16vehicles sitting in a work or home driveway in the U.S., according to aBoston Consulting Group analysis in 2020.

That's what happens when you sell an estimated 1 million each year.

The Ford F-150 is as significant to Ford and America today as the Model-T was in its time," said market analyst Jon Gabrielsen.

Ford knewF-150 owners counted on theirpickups forcamping and hauling boats and horses, not tomention construction and every other trade imaginable.

"It's really about customers who keep America moving," Jackie DiMarco, director of Ford truck strategy, told the Free Press. "The truck team really stepped back and got very deep with the customers. We really spent a lot of time learninghow they use their trucks, learning some of the pain points they have that they find work-arounds. We've been able to incorporate so many of those learnings into this truck."

Henry Ford next to a Model T in 1921.(Photo: The Henry Ford)

The latestchanges aren't just about new features but, really, why the features are in the truck now. It all tells a story about F-150 owners.

When a product is already a top-seller, it'stiny things that make a big difference.

"To me, this is a story of many different details," DiMarco said. "When you really know the customer, youre able to do something as simple as a running board. Theyre there to get in and out of the first and second row. But we noticedcustomers are often stepping up on the tire to grab something out of the (truck) bed. Its not the most natural or easy thing to do, to make that big step up. So we extended our running boards, so you can step up on the back of the running board and reach into the truck If youve got the key in your pocket, coming up to thetruck, the running boardautomatically comes down. If you don't have the key in a pocket, you have a kick switch."

Thisfeaturejust makes it easier for someone to grab a cooler, or a tool.

Not only did Ford collect 200 hours of video and more than 8,000 photographs documenting F-150 life and how to make everything just that much easier, the teams shadowed customers around the clock for months.

"A few of our team members went camping with a father and son," DiMarco said. "So they get up quite early to pack up and go, maybe 4 or 5 in the morning, and the team is really struck by how dark it is. You're trying to pack your truck and it's pitch black, so dark. That was the inspiration for us to come up with zone lighting."

Now the F-150 has a feature that allows drivers to use a phone application to light different parts of the vehicle.

Jackie DiMarco, Ford director of truck strategy, is a mechanical engineer who studied human behavior when designing the 2021 F-150. This photo was taken in 2017.(Photo: Ford Motor Co.)

Change is fine but dramatic change hadthe potential alienate die-hard supporters.

This helps explain the redesigned gear shifter, which folds down and allows the console to be used as a work surface for use witha laptop computer or for laying out designplans or even eating lunch. While the company could have installed buttons or knobs for shifting, it wasn'tthat simple.

"These arehard-working people. They use the truck as a sanctuary during the day," saidKumar Galhotra,Ford president of the Americas and International Markets Group.

"We noticed a lot of workers doing paperwork sitting in thefront seat but there wasnt a comfortable enough work surface. But there are conflicting demands there. Where you would put the work surface theres a shifter there. But you have to have a shifter because these customers really prefer a shifter. So theteam came up with a creative idea to have the shifterdisappear."

Ford engineers spent time on construction sites and observed workers with long workdays taking naps in their cabs, so the new Ford F-150 includes luxury reclining seats that create a bed-like opportunity. And there are lockable compartments under the seats for secret storage.

"All those things are driven by sharp observation of how these customers are using these vehicles," Galhotra said. "We go hang out with our customers."

More: He's a big deal at Ford, but down-to-earth exec hides in plain sight

More: Pickup truck love has America addicted, willing to sacrifice alcohol and coffee and ...

More: Dealers warn buyers: Get your new car before they're gone, supply vanishing

Intuitively understanding habits and needs is one thing, seeing the situations in real life is another completely, he said.

"Most construction siteshad generators there to power the tools. Those generators were noisy, those generators were smelly," Galhotra said. "The idea the team had, since we were doing a hybrid electric (F-150) anyway, what if we used that technology and put a generator on board? A lot of customers can simply use the generator on board to power their tools. Thats just one insight."

Kumar Galhotra, president of Ford North America, in the cafeteria at Ford World Headquarters in Dearborn.(Photo: Romain Blanquart, Detroit Free Press)

This way, Ford F-150 customers don't need to haul that big heavy generator, which can also get stolen.

Having power for a table saw also means having power for tailgating parties, to run a TV or refrigerator or cooking equipment, said DiMarco, a mother of twin teenagerswho lives in Ann Arbor and understands the value of tailgate parties. "People are making their own solutions. Now they dont have to think throughthat and they can really plug right in."

The interior, which may feel like a cozy den to the casual observer, really can be a family space, she said. "I spent a lot of time in my truck with my kids. You have now essentiallya table to gather around and relax when youre not driving. If youre spending a lot of time in your vehicle, we really have spent time on the interior thinking about making that as comfortable as possible."

More: Ford F-Series pickup trucks second only to iPhone in sales. Here's why that's important

This 1975 Ford F-150 is the first 150 built by Ford. The image came from the Ford archive on June 25, 2020.(Photo: Ford Motor Co.)

Pickup truck owners have had a long relationship with the Dearborn automaker.

TheF-150 debuted in 1974as a 1975model, confirmed Fordhistorian Ted Ryan, who providedthe original Aug. 30, 1974, news release.

It was offered in Viking Red, Parrot Orange, Bahama Blue, Baytree Green, Glen Green, Hatteras Green Metallic, Medium Green Glow (at extra cost) and Vineyard Gold.

More: Ford F-Series pickup trucks second only to iPhone in sales. Here's why that's important

America has had a love affair ever since the beginning, based on historical sales data.

Richard Machado, president of Agrian Inc., anagricultural technology company based in Clovis, California, drives a 2020 F-150 Platinum his third F-150.

"When I attend ag meetings around the country, I see a majority of vehicles thatare F-Series," Machado told the Free Press Thursday. "My brother Fred drives an F-150 and his workers on the ranch drive F-150 work trucks they grow almonds, pistachios and grapes."

The unveilingof the latest F-150comes at a crucial time for Ford. It continues to be the market leader, but both Chevy Silverado and Ram Trucks have been aggressively working to eat away that advantage.

The F-150will be built at Ford's Dearborn Truck Plant and the Kansas City Assembly Plant in Claycomo, Missouri.

2003 Ford Employee Meeting Ford World Headquarters. Bill Ford speaking to employee group with F150 on stage. (Photo: Ford Motor Company)

Ford has said it is expecting to report a$5 billion loss for second quarter, so this high-profile product plays an essential role in the company's portfolio.

A price for the 2021 F-150 has not been released.Details related to horsepower and towing capacity will be made available at a later date, Ford said.

Currently, F-150 pricescan start at $28,745 and exceed $75,000. The average F-Series costis $51,585

Jessica Caldwell, executive director of Insights at Edmunds online auto research, said, "Ifall goes smoothly, the F-Series launch should give Ford the big moment of glory they've been craving since it is the most important vehicle for the company given its huge volume and profit margins."

During its first-ever online-only reveal, Ford decided to spotlight itsengineering, technology and marketing teamswho brought the latest F-150 to life. The 35-minute prerecorded program included only one Ford executive, Mark LaNeve,vice president of U.S. marking, sales and service.

"Anytime we launch a new F-150, we're excited," LaNevesaid during the debut. "Our customers are going to love it and our dealers can't wait to sell it."

Contact Phoebe Wall Howard at 313-222-6512or phoward@freepress.com. Follow her on Twitter @phoebesaid. Read more on Ford and sign up for our autos newsletter.

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Ford just revealed 2021 F-150: Why this new model is different - Detroit Free Press

Human Behavior

Voice + AI Is Coming To The Workplace Loud And Clear – Forbes

Robots communicating via voice.

Virtual assistants turn 16 this year and you dont have to look too hard - or speak too loudly - to find them. In fact, there will be around 8 billion voice-based devices by 2023 - more than the worlds population today. From Amazons Echo and Googles Assistant to Apples Siri, Samsungs Bixby and Microsofts Cortana, billions of people around the world are using their voices every day to schedule appointments, get directions, play music or get answers quickly all things that once required us to tediously type or write. Even Twitter recently announced that users can now audio tweet their inner musings.

And yet, despite widespread adoption of voice-based devices in our personal lives, applications based on voice are nowhere as pervasive in our professional lives as they are in our homes. One could argue that consumer technology leads the way in changing human behavior and that the consumerization of the enterprise is always driven first by an expectation that work tools should be equally as convenient as personal technology solutions. Take, for example, AOL Instant Messenger and Yahoo! Messenger, which started in the late 90s. It wasnt until they reached peak consumer adoption that consumers started expecting communication with coworkers to be just like chatting with their friends; twenty years later, Slack was born.

Voice will be no different. As we gradually use voice as the standard medium of interaction between ourselves and technology in our personal lives, we will start to see an increasing demand for similar technologies in our professional lives. Steve McLendon, news product lead for voice at Google argues that we see voice as the ubiquitous always with you platform that allows you to do things in the real world. As a data point, Gartner predicts 25 percent of workers will use some voice-based technology daily by 2021. Thats not surprising given that the percentage of CIOs already using, or immediately planning to use, virtual customer assistants rose 10 points to 31 percent between 2018 and 2019 [Source: Gartner, Market Guide for Virtual Customer Assistants, Brian Manusama, Bern Elliot, Magnus Revang, Anthony Mullen, 11 July, 2019]. And while virtual customer assistants can process both text and voice, some technologists forecast that speech will become the standard medium of interaction between people and their computers.

In addition, there have been some incredible advancements in technology, making this precisely the right time for enterprise applications of voice to take off. Historically, most voice-based technologies have fallen short of expectations. This is because the typical method of understanding voice is to first collect data, then transcribe and label data to provide structure and lastly, build a machine learning model on top. The issue often comes with acquiring a high enough volume of labeled data, which often serves as a bottleneck.

Most recently, theres been amazing progress in natural language understanding. Natural language models from Google, Facebook, and OpenAI are starting to outperform humans on a variety of basic tasks. These new pre-trained and open source models allow users to fine-tune their needs using much smaller amounts of labeled data. OpenAIs latest model, GPT-3, is material progress towards eliminating the need for fine-tuning entirely. While this research is still in its infancy, it has the potential to eliminate some of the rigidity of voice applications as they exist today and open new ways of understanding and utilizing voice.

Unlocking New Opportunities for Voice Applications with AI

While embracing voice as a technology platform for business applications is not a new initiative, efforts have been quite limited to date. Early applications existed mostly in recording and transcribing calls, such as doctors putting notes in EMRs.

However, with the advancements in AI technology, the applications of analyzing voice move these solutions from a nice-to-have feature to a system of record which can unlock opportunities for revenue growth, costs savings and retaining talent, just to name a few.

Here are some specific areas where the combination of voice and AI are proving to be a powerful duo.

Its almost paradoxical that while we have a myriad of communication tools like email, Slack, WhatsApp, Facebook Messenger, SMS and others, the single most efficient way to transfer information is still by voice. Take for example, explaining a complicated issue or having a difficult conversation; speaking live is always the best medium. Language is, in fact, the original, most important tool setting our species apart from any other. It empowers our most complex capabilities and underlies the achievements of civilization. And now we are finally poised to truly unleash it in an intelligible, logical digital form, allowing entrepreneurs to create unimagined new solutions and solve our societys most pressing problems.

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Voice + AI Is Coming To The Workplace Loud And Clear - Forbes

Human Behavior

Ford, Honda boost relationship with Dealer.com – Auto Remarketing

BURLINGTON, Vt.-

This week, Dealer.com enhanced its relationships with both Ford and Honda.

The Cox Automotive division first announced it has been selected as a premier partner in the FordDirect Advantage Digital Advertising Program. Then, Dealer.com highlighted that it has been selected as a choice Honda website and digital advertising provider through the Honda Digital Customer Experience.

Fueled by Cox Automotives insight into the behaviors of in-market shoppers, key integrations and more than a decade of digital advertising expertise, Dealer.com said it can gives Ford and Lincoln dealers the opportunity to maximize sales through more precise, consistent advertising portfolios aligned to their strategies.

During these unprecedented times, Dealer.com acknowledged market forces are challenging dealers to make more accurate investments. Through Dealer.coms Digital Advertising program, Ford and Lincoln dealers can enjoy the flexibility and business intelligence needed to reach consumers at all stages of their journey, displaying the right ad to the right shopper and on the right channel at the right time.

Dealer.com insisted its secure advertising solutions are right-sized for every dealer.

We are seeing record-breaking online traffic and dealers have to spend smarter on every channel to reach consumers wherever they are digitally, said Wayne Pastore, vice president and general manager of Dealer.com.

Our customers are facing market uncertainty, changing consumer behaviors and advertising fraud in a very competitive industry, Pastore continued in a news release. We have the data and partnerships to drive Ford and Lincoln dealer businesses forward by helping them optimize their advertising portfolio and thrive amid disruption.

While digital advertising technologies may seem complex, Dealer.com emphasized that its approach begins with supporting individual dealer needs. Leveraging the proprietary Compass Advertising Intelligence engine, a portfolio is built to a dealers goals and budget and will flex with a dealers changing needs.

Dealer.coms business intelligence and insights then can help steer Ford and Lincoln dealers toward smarter advertising investments.

Dealer.com highlighted its other advertising solutions key advantages include:

Leverage shopper data from Autotrader and Kelley Blue Book to help dealers capitalize on existing demand in a dealers market.

Filter inventory for advertising through Paid Search with vAuto data, including Market Day Supply, Price Rank, vRank, and Price to Market, ensuring a dealer spends the right budget on the appropriate vehicles.

Apply relevant pricing data from Xtime Schedule in paid search ads, driving more applicable ad copy promoting a dealers service department.

Provide turnkey video creation and delivery service for dealers no matter their budget, driving compelling, offer-based video content to high value, high engagement video channels like Facebook and YouTube.

Detect and combat advertising fraud and ensure dealer investments are protected with a partnership with White Ops and the Trustworthy Accountability Group.

The Dealer.com platform can deploy personalized, integrated ad campaigns that use artificial intelligence and impactful creative to reach prospective vehicle buyers and owners through paid search, display, social media and video channels.

To learn more about Dealer.com advertising, visit https://www.dealer.com/products/advertising.

As mentioned, Dealer.com announced it has been selected as a choice Honda website and digital advertising provider through the Honda Digital Customer Experience.

Through Dealer.coms Website Choice program, Honda dealers can receive customized, strategic and secure management of a dealers advertising strategy and investment to connect with in-market shoppers across the digital channels that drive performance.

Dealer.com pointed out that it is aiding Honda dealers to deliver a personalized, efficient car shopping experience, which customers expect now more than ever before.

Fueled by user experience research, data science, and exclusive integrations with Cox Automotive brands, Dealer.com websites can deliver a full service, personalized digital storefront experience that can complementa dealers individual business goals.

We are better positioned to help dealers now and invest in the long-term to respond to the new model of car shopping, Pastore said in another news release.

Through Hondas Website Choice Program, we provide all the levers dealers can pull in the digital marketing ecosystem whether its on their website, through social channels or video, he continued. These tools have impact and will allow dealers to connect in a meaningful way to their customers.

Through insight into human behavior, supported by data from Cox Automotive brands like Kelley Blue Book, Autotrader, Dealertrack, HomeNet and more, Dealer.coms Website Choice program offers professional services that address and solve the challenges faced by dealers and their customers.

Participating dealerships will receive a strategic advantage in content creation, SEO ranking, advertising, social strategies and more.

Dealers who would like to learn more can visit https://www.dealer.com/honda/.

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Ford, Honda boost relationship with Dealer.com - Auto Remarketing

Human Behavior

Why Animism Gives Japanese Characters a NiFTy Head Start on the Blockchain – Cointelegraph

Anime is for kids? Think again.

As you grew older, perhaps you felt the need to put away childish things, as the verse from Corinthians admonishes us to do. You graduated from picture books to literature, from nursery rhymes to Nirvana, from the simple to the complex.

Its the adult thing to do.

Yet anime, the cartoon-ish art form sometimes known as Japanimation, is not childish in either its origins or its message. In fact, anime is art with a message: it helps explain to children the right thing to do in life and some might say, it provides a moral compass to adults.

It is the widespread appeal of both the anime style and its various messages that helps us understand why Japanese characters have an inbuilt advantage in the world of non-fungible tokens (NFTs), both in blockchain gaming and in the expanding arena of digital collectibles. The answer lies in one of the pillars of Japanese culture, Animism, as we will see. And while anime is but one example of this phenomenon, it is perhaps the one that best illustrates it.

There are many forms of anime, and in the version that is aimed at children the predominant themes are positive. Justice prevails. Friendship thrives. Love wins. The main characters are on the side of good, and the defeat of virtue is unthinkable.

This type of anime concerns itself with the promotion of decent human behavior. It doesnt reflect the severe reality of, say, inequality. It is clean and simple. It encourages children to dream big, and to go claim those dreams.

And in this form, it is a form of cultural reassurance, a guidebook to the basic morality principles that the majority of participants in your society agree on. It seems playful, but its message resonates far beyond play.

This is the form of anime that is familiar to many in the West.

However, it is not the only version of anime. Sub-genres such as Hentai explore darker, adult, or sexual themes. The main characters may lose, and even die. Supporting characters come to dominate the protagonists, and themes become complicated as opposed to simple.

So, growing up in Japan doesnt mean that you outgrow anime; more that you graduate from one style to another as you become more comfortable with adult thematic elements. Life is not easy, and adult anime makes that very clear.

So whats the difference between the anime that Japan exports to a young global audience, and the more complicated domestic product?

Put simply, while many Westerners see cartoon-style animation predominantly as a form of childrens entertainment, the Japanese imbue anime characters with greater complexity, seeing past the animated presentation and considering the characters to have real-world relevance.

Simona Stanzani, a Japanese-Italian-English manga/anime translator/writer, said in an interview last year: What is attractive about Japanese Manga and Anime is its depth. Characters are very human-like, and human psychology and human relations are drawn conscientiously. It is as if watching dramas and movies. You can learn what is important in life.

According to Globe, a fan from Serbia explained the uniqueness of Japanese anime as follows:

When you are a child you believe you are the one who plays the leading part but as you grow up you face a different reality. Anything can happen in life. If a character spends a harsh life and is very realistic you can sympathize with her deeply.

American game producer Maximilian Dood concluded that playing a Japanese video game, in his case Final Fantasy 7, was the first time he felt attached to characters.

For a lot of people including myself, it was the gateway to video games being a narrative to you, getting attached to characters instead of just playing a game for the sake of playing a game () This was the first time you lived with characters. This was the first time you experienced a journey and you didnt feel like you were just watching a movie. You didnt feel like you were just a part of something that was there and then it was over. You felt like you were there with them.

Japanese cultural exports have strongly out-performed what we might expect of a relatively small country. As of November 2019, nine Japanese media franchises ranked in the top 25 of the worlds most successful of all time. Nintendos Pokmon has accumulated the most revenue with $92 billion. The Hello Kitty franchise comes in second with more than $80 billion beating out both Mickey Mouse and Star Wars.

Pokmon has earned three times the revenue created by Harry Potter, or the Marvel cinematic universe.

And Japanese character popularity shows no sign of slowing: Netflix has secured exclusive rights to new episodes of Pokmon, while Hello Kitty is moving toward her Hollywood debut.

Japanese characters have evolved from the concept of Animism, which is rooted in the belief that humans do not have an exclusive franchise on the soul. Animals, plants, and inorganic substances have spirits (and Animism treats all things as having agency. For Animists, anime characters have souls.

The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy points out:

Notions of Japan as an animistic spirit-infused realm in which humans can commune with animals and other objects and forces of nature are ubiquitous in Japan, coursing through popular manga and anime.

Although few Japanese overtly support the theological concept of Animism today, it has been a major part of Japanese history and has influenced the Japanese way of thinking significantly. According to Takeshi Umehara, one of Japans leading contemporary philosophers, although Animism is considered by many to be a primitive religion its principles are still the basis of Japanese Shinto and Buddhism today.

Umehara claims that the denial of Animism means the acceptance of the concept that humans should, and do, control nature. The concept of Animism therefore directly contrasts with Christian monotheism, in which only human beings are considered to have spirits. In other words Animists see non-humans as active entities with agency, while for the Judaeo-Christian religions and the nations that follow their principles, non-humans are primarily passive objects that must be governed by humans.

So what does any of this have to do with NFTs and blockchain technology?

NFTs are tokens that have unique information or attributes associated with them, and they are therefore not replaceable by other tokens.

OpenSea, a leading NFT auction platform, explains that the reasons why NFTs are appealing to gamers include both provenance and utility.

Utility is the obvious one: Im willing to buy an NFT ticket because it lets me into a conference, Im more willing to buy a piece of art if I can show it off in a virtual world, and Im willing to buy an item if it gives me special abilities in a game. The concept of provenance encapsulates the story behind an NFT. Where did it come from? Whos owned it in the past? As the space matures, the stories of interesting NFTs grow more complex and start to meaningfully impact a tokens value.

The first major spike in usage for NFTs was during the CryptoKitties boom of late 2017, when the game became popular enough to slow down the entire Ethereum network and speculation on famous cats became rife. Scarcity, another feature of NFTs, was the focal point at that time. But scarcity alone doesnt drive demand for NFTs.

Animism is about seeing an authentic relationship between humans and non-human entities in this case, game characters. So when OpenSea explains that users have the opportunity to understand the provenance of game characters, this can mean two things.

First, it means users can know that the NFT is not fake. Thats the most basic use of a token in this instance.

But a second interpretation suggests that provenance allows players to also see their game character as having agency. As being a friend.

They can have an attachment to that character because blockchain presents the opportunity to build a genuine relationship based on a shared history. Villages, cities, nation states and countries have all been built on the same principle. Our shared history defines us.

Consider Dungeons & Dragons, and the deep connection players created between themselves and their alter egos in the game. There are instances of characters who have persisted for decades in home games.

This level of attachment can be gained only when users see their relationship with a game character as more than transactional or transient. In other words, when the character itself becomes imbued with a spirit, a soul.

When a shared history becomes available via demonstrable provenance (blockchain), and it intersects with a narrative that promotes the concept of imbuing non-real characters with personality and agency (Animism) its not a leap to infer that technology and philosophy are converging in a powerful way.

Japan has sold character-driven narratives to the world for decades. Godzilla, Pikachu, Mario, Transformers, Hello Kitty, Doraemon the list goes on. And the fan connection to these characters is illustrated by their global financial success.

Perhaps it seems somewhat strange for Westerners to consider that non-human entities have souls. But on the flipside, we open our wallets repeatedly to prove that we love cool characters with personality. And thanks to a history of Animism, Japan is a world leader in creating these unique and engaging characters.

Both in gaming and in collectibles, a sense of connection with character is one of the key assets in creating success. And as a country with decades of experience creating character narratives, its unsurprising that Japan should therefore be at the forefront in building blockchain brands that bring the technology both closer to our existing experiences, and also beyond them.

Its equally unsurprising that the first (and to date, most) successful implementation of NFTs at scale was a game that featured cats, a species that both confounds and delights humans in almost equal measure, and which we anthropomorphize to a greater degree than perhaps any other.

As our lives change and we adopt remote working as we sit at home through pandemics as virtual reality edges ever closed to mass adoption our connection with the physical world may change too.

As Sian Sullivan suggests in Nature on the Move III: (Re)countenancing an Animate Nature, perhaps we will eventually find ourselves enmeshed in a network of ever-changing relationships with non-human entities.

Japanese ones, if history is any guide.

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Find out more about TELEGRAFICO and claim your trading card!

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Why Animism Gives Japanese Characters a NiFTy Head Start on the Blockchain - Cointelegraph

Human Behavior

The ‘Have More Children and Disciple Them Like Crazy’ Culture War Strategy is Neither New Nor Responsible – Religion Dispatches

In a blog post for The Gospel Coalition, Kevin DeYoung calls for conservative Christians to have more children and disciple them like crazy, a new culture war strategy that has me scratching my head. Not just because its sexist to tell mothers, who typically bear the disproportionate burden of child-care, to have more children than you think you can handle. And not just because its anti-child to catechize these small human beings to win a culture war. As offensive as that is, Im confounded because this isnt a new culture war strategy at all. For those of us who grew up in evangelicalism, we just called this the way we grew up.

As a child, I was catechized by youth group leaders, missionaries who had the zeal to add numbers to their newsletter reportsuh, I mean, for the Kingdom. Of course, as a child, I didnt have the awareness of this culture war strategy, I simply believed I was being taught the love and grace of a good God. When I grew older and, gasp, developed my own critical thinking abilities, I began to see with more clarity the unspoken strategies put in place to ensure I stayed in the fold long after I departed from the shelter of my Christian bubble.

If you look at one of the leading influential voices of evangelical culture, Focus on the Family, youll see very clear guidelines on how exactly to do this. When kids are very young, its important to instill respect, which means blind obedience to authority figures.

God gives us rules that we must obey.

Even if Mommy or Daddy cant see what you are doing, God sees it.

As they enter early Elementary years, erect a boundary between the Christian worldview, often referred to as the biblical way, and the secular world.

In late Elementary years, families are instructed to land the target: convert the child. Note this quote,

The majority of people who trust Christ as Savior do so before they are teens.

The National Association of Evangelicals notes a Barna study citing the average age of conversion, between 4-14.

Implicit in this reminder is the urgency to convert kids before they grow upwhat I call the Get-em-while-theyre-young ideology. What happens to kids who grow into middle school age and teenagers, as their world slowly expands and they begin to see discrepancies between the doctrines theyre taught and their own experiences? How are Christian families to keep their kids toeing the line?

Christian families are taught to repeat two steps. Step 1: Obey God no matter what. In more sophisticated language this is taught as the doctrine of the Sovereignty of God, which is prevalent on the website of the Gospel Coalition on whose board Kevin DeYoung sits (along with 8 other men). Step 2: Continue fearing the secular world. This, of course, is the driving force behind the culture wars.

The culture wars did not arise out of a vacuum; the players are carefully cultivated in their homes and families, through curation of Christian-subculture content for kids, and via the meticulous wiring of childrens minds and spirituality to blind obedience and fears of departing from the imagined safety of Christian environments.

When DeYoungs piece was published I was surprised to see a lot of fellow ex-evangelicals mock this piece by stating that this strategy will fail because their own story is that it did not work on them. Because they left.

I disagree. I think it works very well. As humans were molded by our environment. To deny this would be to ignore evidence from the scientists who study human behavior. Children are deeply impacted by the teachings they receive and the culture which shapes them. Those of us who grew up to be adults who questioned the assumptions of our childhood have done so at great mental anguish and weve paid a significant social cost. For every individual who was willing to pay that premium, there are many who stay and perpetuate the ideology of their childhood. And the culture war retains its warriors.

Kevin DeYoungs new culture war strategy isnt new, but it is effective. However, winning this war means everybody loses. A healthy and vibrant society doesnt advance itself through the imposition of sectarian interests, but through meaningful engagement with a plurality of cultures and ideas.

Rather than catechize children to win culture wars, lets raise them with values of respect and love of robust diversity. And the best way to teach kids to treat others in their community with humanity is to respect our childrens humanityto give them agency and freedom to think, to feel, to learn with gentle guidance rather than authoritarian manipulation.

Nobody raises kids in a vacuum of values, but theres a difference between leadership and indoctrination. The latter creates culture warriors. The former will raise responsible and engaged citizens for a healthy society.

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The 'Have More Children and Disciple Them Like Crazy' Culture War Strategy is Neither New Nor Responsible - Religion Dispatches

Human Behavior

Does the threat of being blacklisted change behavior? – Brookings Institution

Abstract

In late 2016, the EU Commission began a detailed review of over 80 non-European jurisdictions to determine how compliant they were with international standards around tax transparency, fair taxation, and adherence to the OECDs Base Erosion Profit Shifting (BEPS) minimum standards. The EU subsequently published both a grey and black list of jurisdictions to promote their cooperation with these standards. I investigate the impact that this process has had on several measures of international tax governance by employing a regression discontinuity design derived from the unique process the EU used to select jurisdictions for review. I find that although jurisdictions selected into review were substantially more likely to be grey or blacklisted, detectable improvements in tax governance are largely limited to (i) increases in transparency around the presence and removal of harmful tax regimes and (ii) increases in the effective implementation of exchange-of-information (EOIR) agreements. However, countries selected into the EU process were significantly more likely to join the Inclusive Framework, a forum dedicated to implementing the BEPS minimum standards and deliberating over changes to international tax rules. Back-of-the-envelope estimates suggest that the Inclusive Framework is roughly 15 percent larger thanks to the EU review process, although its composition in terms of representation by developing countries or jurisdictions traditionally thought of as tax havens remains roughly the same.

There has been a rapid shift in global tax governance in the past decade. This has been prompted by a recognition that there are two significant externalities driving the movement of financial assets and profits to offshore financial centers (OFCs). The first is financial secrecy, provided by offshore jurisdictions to clients who are able to obscure their ownership and potentially avoid taxation. Studies estimate the amount of wealth being held in offshore tax havens to be approximately 8 percent of all household wealth or 10 percent of global GDP, a significant portion of which goes unreported (Zucman 2013; Johannesen et al. 2018). The second externality is a set of corporate tax policiesa combination of rates, loopholes and lack of transparencythat create incentives for multinational enterprises (MNEs) to shift their profits away from high tax jurisdictions to lower tax ones where there is little economic activity of substance. In a recent study, Trslv, Wier, and Zucman (2019) estimate that up to 40 percent of global MNE profits are shifted to tax havens.1

To collectively deal with these externalities, jurisdictions across the globe are in the process of committing to two separate OECD frameworks aimed at reducing international tax evasion and avoidance. The first of these is the OECD/G20 Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS) initiative, which is being taken forward by the international forum known as the Inclusive Framework (IF) on BEPS. The goal of the IF is to promote specific actions and standards that will help countries tackle tax planning efforts by multinationals which lead to an erosion of the corporate tax base. At the very least, members of the IF are expected to adopt four minimum standards, built around reducing harmful tax practices, combating tax treaty abuse, handling treaty disputes and arbitration and finally documenting transfer pricing. The last of these include country-by-country reporting (CbCr), the requirement for parent companies of multinationals to disclose significant details about their operations, profits and tax payments, which will then be exchanged between participating tax authorities. It should be noted that the BEPS Minimum Standards are only part of the entire package of reforms promoted by the OECD and by themselves do not represent a sufficient set of policies for eliminating cross-border tax externalities. As of April 2020, 137 jurisdictions have joined the Inclusive Framework as members, committing to adopting its standards.

The second initiative is the adoption of the OECDs Common Reporting Standard (CRS) for the Automatic Exchange of Information (AEOI). Jurisdictions that adopt this standard will require financial institutions to report account information for non-resident taxpayers and for that information to be automatically exchanged between tax authorities in participating jurisdictions. Recent studies suggest that bilateral AEOI exchanges lead to a shift of offshore assets out of tax havens, although it is unclear how much of this presumably untaxed wealth is repatriated (Beer, Coelho, and Leduc 2019; Casi, Spengel, and Stage 2019; OReilly, Ramirez, and Stemmer 2019; Menkhoff and Miethe 2019). Approximately 130 jurisdictions have committed to exchanging under CRS, over a third of which which began their first exchanges in 2017, another third in 2018 and the remaining third between 2019 and 2023. The CRS framework is seen as an improvement from an older system of information exchange, known as exchange-of-information on request (EOIR), where tax authorities must make active requests for information on specific taxpayers. Despite this, there are still efforts to ensure that EOIR is being adequately implemented, as jurisdictions are reviewed through the Global Forum on Transparency and Exchange of Information for Tax Purpose.

In late 2016, the EU Commission began a careful review of 80-90 non-European jurisdictions to determine how compliant they were with international standards around tax transparency, fair taxation and adherence to the OECDs Base Erosion Profit Shifting (BEPS) minimum standards. After the review and some dialogue with non-compliant countries, the EU released a grey list of jurisdictions who were non-compliant with these standards, but had committed to make improvements, as well as a black list of jurisdictions who were non-cooperative, who were to be subject to a number of EU countermeasures.

In this paper, I investigate the impact that this process has had on the standards that the EU intended to enforce. I rely on the process the EU used to select countries for consideration in its listing process to compare jurisdictions who scored just high enough to be considered with those that did not. Using a regression discontinuity specification, I find that countries that were selected into the EUs review process were substantially more likely to be grey or blacklisted, but that there is mixed evidence that, to date, the process has affected policy adoption. On average, index measures of global tax governance, based off of the EUs own goals, do not show large improvements. The main exception is for Fair Taxation, where jurisdictions selected by the EU saw a large increase in the probability that their tax regimes had been inspected by the EU or the OECD and, as of the time of writing, that they no longer had any harmful regimes present. There is weak evidence that the EU review process increased the the number of BEPS minimum standards adopted. There is also some evidence that the EU process led to a sharp increase in the probability that the Global Forum rated a jurisdiction as largely compliant or better on its implementation of EOIR.

The most robust and striking result from the analysis is the fact that countries selected into the process were substantially more likely to join the Inclusive Framework, thus committing themselves to implementing the BEPS minimum standards. This means that even if the EU review process has not improved international tax governance by much in the medium term, it might do so in the long term as these commitments become more binding. It also has implications for the future of deliberation over new international tax rules, as it shows that unilateral involvement of regional unions can influence participation in international standard setting. Using a difference-in-difference strategy, I show that, on average, the EU review and listing process increased the probability of IF membership by approximately 30 percent for selected jurisdictions, translating into an increase in total IF membership by around 15 percent. While the composition of the IF is not radically different due to the EUs involvement, its impact on the participation of developing countries might have been stronger had it set lower thresholds for the review, or had it not excluded least developed countries (LDCs) from the review process.

The other result worth emphasizing is that the EU review process appears to have had positive spillovers on the probability a jurisdiction was reviewed by the OECD Forum on Harmful Tax Practices. This may have been driven purely by the fact that IF members are subject to these reviews, but indicates how unilateral efforts by one entity can have spillovers onto others. While I am unable to identify the net impact the EU review and listing process has had on the total number of harmful tax regimes that have been struck down, the results in this paper are consistent with the EU review process having a sizable impact.

This paper makes several contributions. First, it is the first rigorous test of the impact of the EUs efforts to improve tax governance worldwide. While it is easy to observe how countries included in the listing process have improved, we would not normally know how these countries would have improved without the EUs intervention, particularly because there is ongoing pressure from a multitude of institutions (e.g. the OECD, US Government, IMF, World Bank) to improve tax governance.

Second, this paper adds to a nascent empirical literature on the effect of listing exercises on institutional behavior and outcomes. For example, Morse (2019) shows that those added to the Financial Action Task Force (FATF)s greylist of countries that lack compliance with international anti-money laundering (AML) standards are significantly more likely to criminalize money laundering. Kelley and Simmons (2015) find that countries listed on the U.S. State Departments annual Trafficking in Persons report are more likely to subsequently criminalize human trafficking. These empirical studies are backed up with case study evidence that jurisdictions are nudged into compliance by the threat of blacklisting (in both the space of AML/CFT and in tax transparency), even when there are no explicit sanctions (Sharman 2009).

The rest of the paper proceeds as follows: Section 2 discusses the recent history of the EU review and listing process. Section 3 discusses the empirical approach I take in this paper, Section 4 presents the main regression discontinuity results as well as results exploiting changes across time. Section 5 discusses the implications these results have for international tax governance as well as reasons the EU blacklisting process may not have a powerful effect on state behavior. I conclude the paper with Section 6.

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Does the threat of being blacklisted change behavior? - Brookings Institution

Human Behavior

Covid-19 will reveal critical aspects of how human activity impacts wildlife, researchers say – theRising

For the past few months, many of us were under quarantine to slow the spread of the coronavirus pandemic. Due to this, human activity beyond our homes has ground somewhat to a halt, leading to some unintended consequences.

In fact, a recent study found that our lack of mobility directly links to changes in animal behaviors. Whether the observations are positive or negative, this research has devised different ways for humans and wildlife to peacefully coexist on this crowded planet.

While some of the U.S. reopens, its imperative to understand the ripples we make in over environment, including how interdependent animals and humans are.

With lockdown in place, there have been surprising shifts in wildlife behavior. In some areas, weve even seen the return of wildlife in urban cities. For example, people reported dolphins in harbors of Italy, jackals in urban parks of Tel Aviv, Israel, and pumas in downtown Santiago, Chile.

Yet for some species, Covid-19 has brought upon new challenges. Many animals, like rats, gulls, and monkeys, have become heavily reliant on food waste discarded by humans, which is reduced due to our limited activity.

To make matters worse, people started to migrate outside of metropolitan areas to avoid the spread of Covid-19. Researchers found that this may negatively affect wildlife because local animals arent used to human interactionwhich is becoming more common as we try to socially distance ourselves.

However, while people are going more remote and avoiding travel, decreased tourism leaves places like Africa more susceptible to poaching. This raises many concerns for red-listed animals, such as the pangolin, because scientists are finding that their numbers are rapidly dwindling due to their potential links to the pandemic.

As the human population continues to expand, we will continue to be interdependent with animals. Learning more about how we affect them will be crucial for sustainability in the future.

Humans are transforming animal environments at unprecedented rates. Therefore, understanding how human activity affects wildlife will benefit us in many ways. It helps us preserve global biodiversity, maintain ecosystems, and predict future zoonotic diseases.

So, recently, bio-logging teams have formed to collect animals movements, behavior, activity, psychology, and environment.

Using this data, author of the study state they will be able to investigate if the movements of animals in modern landscapes are predominantly affected by built structures, or by the presence of humans.

This can reveal which species are most affected by human interaction, and to what degree human disturbance will cause detrimental effects on animals. Modifications in transportation networks could reduce disruption in animal movement, which would save us from future diseases being spread.

Ultimately, we cannot predict when the next global pandemic will occur. Thus, by using this opportunity, researchers can see how animals respond when human activity is at its lowest.

By comparing the presence of wildlife before and after Covid-19, we can better understand the human impact on the environment. And with this information, we have the chance to protect ourselves and other Earthly creatures.

Covid-19 gave us a serious wake-up call in terms of reforms for a healthy environment. We must use this opportunity to reflect on our actions to preserve the planet, one relationship at a time.

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Covid-19 will reveal critical aspects of how human activity impacts wildlife, researchers say - theRising