Category Archives: Human Behavior

Our short-lived Anthropocene and the coming Algorithmocene – Medium

The Anthroposcream

Almost lost in the cacophony of terrible news for us humans this year have been the recent signals of irreversible damage we humans have been doing to the planet.

The melting of Greenlands ice sheet has essentially passed the point of no return according to a study published this August in Nature. And as one of the studys co-authors puts it there is obviously more to come. In particular, there are now strong indications that other irreversible climate tipping points, like deforestation, permafrost thawing and slowing of ocean circulations, are rapidly being reached. All in all, more climate scientists are now seeing the International Panel on Climate Changes worst-case God help us scenario, once almost universally dismissed as alarmist climate porn, as the base-case for the future[1].

The blood-orange skies and destroyed homes from historic wildfires in the US, like the recent ones in the Amazon and Australia, offer a grim preview of such a future. Its also a grim future for wildlife and their habitat. The damage in the US this year is still ongoing, but in last years Australian fires alone, over a billion animals and just as many trees are believed to have perished. The Amazons ecosystem never evolved to cope with fire, but that is also now part of its future. As a result, the worlds largest rainforest and richest store of biodiversity is in danger of becoming a dry savannah within the next several decades. Overall, the planet has lost almost 70% of its wildlife since 1970, and possibly half of all species will be gone by the end of this century in what is now recognized as Earths 6th Great Extinction event. Here too, the once unthinkable is looking more like the inevitable.

Yet as surreal as it is to say it, climate change and species extinction are only a part of the seismic disruptions the Anthropocene the epoch of humans is creating this century. To my mind, they are probably the middle half. In order of what we can think of as their future geological footprint, the four biggest trends shaping the century are

Each of these trends alone is big and complex enough to count as its own challenge of the century for global civilization. So its understandable that theyre often discussed as if happening in separate silos. But of course they are anything but separate. Instead theyre deeply linked in a mutual feedback loop entangling the entire triad of society, the environment and technology. As such, their convergence to a perfect storm this century is not a coincidence. They are also driven by socioeconomic rules as old as the Neolithic revolution. That, to my mind at least, essentially guarantees their continuation no matter how many warning lights are flashed in our faces.

As humankind blithely stares down the barrel of the truly unthinkable, one possible outcome this century is the infamous Great Filter: a collapse of global civilization and probably human populations. For all we know, this may even be the most likely outcome. But like many, I wouldnt equate this scenario with the outright extinction of our species or even our technology. The minimum viable human population needed to avoid extinction is estimated to be less than 1,000 individuals. That could readily be managed, for example, in a few self-sustaining cave systems. Especially if, as expected under such extreme conditions, a disproportionate number of the survivors are engineers.

But if the survivors do eventually repopulate the planet, or if civilization manages to avoid collapse in the first place, one can argue it can only be with a very different dynamic between human society, the environment and technology. So different that, however this century plays out, the term Anthropocene as a new epoch in Earth history may not be as fitting as another: the Algorithmocene.

Before going there, lets understand the magnitude of each of the above four disruptions in the context of their future geological footprint on Earth.

Like a symphony is organized into movements, sections, phrases and measures, Earths 4.5 billion year history is organized by geologists into nested time intervals of eons, eras, periods and epochs (ignoring for simplicity the shortest interval of ages). Specifically, eons (10-10 years) are divided into eras(10-10 years) which are divided into periods (10-10 years) which are divided into epochs (10-10 years).

What we think of as human civilization began with the Neolithic revolution and has happened wholly within the

One peculiar thing of note is that each of the above is the shortest in its respective time unit. That is, our Holocene is the shortest of all of Earths 38 epochs. Similarly, our Quaternary, Cenozoic and Phanerozoic are the shortest among Earths 22 periods , 10 eras and 4 eons respectively. If we imagined selecting these as independent random samples[2], the odds of getting this streak would be about 0.003%; the same odds as getting a royal flush in 7-card Texas hold em. No doubt this just an odd coincidence (somewhat like Bodes Law in astronomy shows odd coincidences in the solar systems planetary orbits). But if we pretend for a moment that it isnt, the trend would predict something interesting (just as Bodes Law predicted Neptunes orbit). Namely, that our current Holocene epoch should be ending sooner than later.

And indeed, we know the Holocene is ending even faster than sooner. Sometime in the next year or so, the International Commission on Stratigraphy is due to officially introduce the long awaited Anthropocene the epoch of humans into Earths history book [3].

In keeping with the above imagined trend, the changes our species has set in motion go much further than moving to the next epoch. Specifically, we can see the following links

Before going further down the geological footprint list, lets pause for a moment and notice something important about ourselves. The fact that even our normal civilized activity (i.e. sans nuclear war or similar) is upending the last 65 million years of Earths history should leave us all stupefied. Such a terrifying tally should lead us, as rational, civilized beings, to an immediate and complete overhaul of our daily life and the socioeconomic rules that drove us here in the first place.

But of course nothing of the kind is happening, nor can we expect it to. After all, we still build homes in the middle of fire hazard zones and floodplains. Even during this pandemic, otherwise rational people are happy to gather in large, maskless crowds. More than 50 years after the first official warnings at the highest levels of government and industry, global carbon emissions still track one thing: global GDP. In short, the apocalypse remains abstract and remote for as long we think were able to personally avoid its consequences. As climatologist Ken Caldeira has remarked in the Guardian: If people are rich enough to air-condition their lives, they can watch whatever is the successor to Game of Thrones on TV, as the natural world decays around them.

Case in point: even after making this tally, I havent changed my daily routine. Sure, for a Western urbanite I try to behave in (what passes here for) an environmentally conscious way. But only until that hits an actual pain point. Things like recycling, public transport and buying local-organic are fortunately easy where we live. But I still binge on my favorite TV series and Youtube channels with a carbon footprint of 10 kg per hour; and I certainly wont give up my five cups of coffee a day, each with a water footprint of 130 liters per cup.

Thats not because I dont believe in the dangers Im writing about, but because thats just how we humans are. At least thats how humans in technological societies are. From the bottom of the pyramid to the top 1% and across the political belief spectrum, the vast majority of us will not leave our behavioral comfort zones until were blasted out with dynamite. Yes, there are deep-seated socio-psychological reasons for this. But its also because technological civilization is based on a simple premise. Even when faced with problems of our own making, why improve our behavior when we can improve our technology instead?

Which brings us to the existential irony of this point in human history. The problems created by our technological civilization are so massive and approaching so fast that only a virtual miracle can now avert the worst. If it can be averted at all. Blaming callous 1%-ers and their political cronies, socioeconomic inequality, poor education, wasteful consumer culture, human moral failing in general and even the Neolithic revolution itself may all have their proper place. But these debates are also centuries old and not going to move any needles anytime soon. Wishful thinking aside, at this point in the 21st century we are simply out of time to improve human behavior. The only miracle left to hope for is technology.

To be clear, thats not intended as a cornucopian argument as much as a fatalistic one. The risk of this miracle cure being worse than the disease is real. And it may be too late anyway: even if innovation is the infinite resource, as Ramez Naam claims, thats irrelevant when time is finite. Every collapsed civilization in history is a testament to that fact.

Either way, having broken Earths natural equilibria, our global 21st century civilization will try its technological best to impose its artificial equilibria. And as technologies go, artificial intelligence has the greatest potential of all to fall in that category.

AI is already driving the greatest technological arms race in history. Businesses and nations great and small already see AI as the ultimate strategic investment in their own future. From finance, design, manufacturing, distribution, and transportation to agriculture, politics, law-enforcement, work-life, social life, health and entertainment, AI is already transforming how our world works. Its also (one might say unsurprisingly) transforming how our very hackable minds work.

Yet its also clear to everyone that the story of artificial intelligence on planet Earth has barely begun. Its capabilities grow at least as fast as Moores Law, and the transformation of every corner of life is already baked in. Whatever fears (founded or unfounded) of a Terminator world we may have: the scale and complexity of navigating this century will, to my mind, ensure that AI will become the dominant factor shaping the world going forward. So much so that the concept of AI as a human tool, I argue, will eventually lose its meaning.

But before that sets off any woo-woo alarms: none of the above is a claim about the singularity, AI consciousness or even general artificial intelligence (all of which Im skeptical for different reasons). Its rather a claim about where the information processing action on planet Earth will be. And about how that action should be understood.

As the overwhelming mass of the worlds high-level information flow shifts from humans to machines, and algorithms get better at hacking into our mental space, an obvious question emerges. Where in the array of human affairs does any causal chain of events begin? How meaningful is the very concept of human intention in such a world? One might pretend that at least human programmers and their intentions are still behind it all, but in the age when algorithms pre-process everyones information and options, is this not merely a distinction without a difference?

In short, if visiting aliens survey our world next century and are able to follow the money i.e. the flow of information they may well decide theyre looking at a world run by machine-based algorithms. Whether they will pay much attention to the two-legged carbon-based creatures servicing them is another question. After all, any visiting aliens may well be machines from their own Algorithmocene age.

Its worth noting that for any future geologists, our Algorithmocene should leave a clear signal in the fossil record. Already there are more IoT devices in the world than humans, and their numbers are set to skyrocket in the coming decades. Given the 50 million tons of electronic waste the world produces every year, the fossil record may even already have its so-called golden spike: Agbogbloshie on the outskirts of Accra, Ghana. Agbogbloshie is said to be home to the worlds largest e-waste dump, nicknamed Sodom for its constant dumpster fires. As filmmaker Florian Weigsamer described it in a 2018 interview with CBC Radio When you first come there, it looks like an apocalyptic placeit seems like a place where everything ends

Image from the Blacksmith Institute for a Pure Earth, a non-profit working to improve recycling conditions in Agbogbloshie and elsewhere.

For the next few decades at least, its hard to see how the future will not continue to devolve into ever more terrible versions of the present. Everything trending badly in the world now is doing so for reasons much bigger than any conceivable public policy tweaks that might mitigate them. But for the longer term towards the end of the century, three possible scenarios seem conceivable enough to describe briefly in terms of famous sci-fi memes.

Footnotes:

[1] To dispel any illusions about the world effectively addressing climate change, see NOAAs atmospheric carbon dioxide monitoring site. Even the latest UN report on renewables 2020 states that current global commitments to reduce carbon fall far short of what would be needed to limit world temperature increases to less than 2 degrees Celsius.

[2] They are of course neither independent nor random. But even if the estimate is off by an order of magnitude, its an impressive coincidence.

[3] The term Anthropocene was widely popularized at the beginning of this century by Paul Crutzen and others since. However the International Committee on Stratigraphy is an extremely deliberative body. It is set to formally review the adoption of the term in 2021.

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Our short-lived Anthropocene and the coming Algorithmocene - Medium

Parasite infestations revealed by tiny chicken backpacks – Jill Lopez

Blood-feeding livestock mites can be detected with wearable sensor technology nicknamed "Fitbits for chickens."

To help farmers detect mite infestations, a team of entomologists, computer scientists, and biologists led by UC Riverside entomologist Amy Murillo has created a new insect detection system. The team's work is detailed in the journalScientific Reports.

In recent years, concern for the well-being of livestock has given rise to more farms where poultry are allowed to roam. Though this freedom improves the quality of chickens' lives, free-range chickens are still subject to insect infestations.

"The trend in egg sales is 'cage free,' but that doesn't necessarily mean the chickens are insect free," Murillo said.

Of particular concern to scientists is the northern fowl mite, which Murillo said feeds on chicken blood and lives on hens in feathers surrounding "the butt area of the chicken."

In addition to the economic consequences of infected hens laying fewer eggs, mites can make the chickens sick and cause lesions to develop on their skin.

"Fowl mites are very unpleasant for the birds being fed upon and cause an itchy immune response," Murillo said.

To devise their detection system, Murillo's team first identified three key chicken pastimes closely linked to chickens' well-being: pecking, preening, and dustbathing. The team hypothesized they would see a big increase in preening and dustbathing among infected chickens because these activities keep feathers clean.

The team placed motion sensors into tiny backpacks the chickens could wear without discomfort. The next challenge was translating data from these sensors into algorithms that could be detected as behaviors.

Alireza Abdoli, a doctoral student in computer science at UCR, explained that quantifying fowl behavior isn't as simple as working with human behaviors like walking, because it isn't as regular.

In order to train a computer to recognize chicken behaviors, Abdoli had to take an unusual approach. He created an algorithm, or set of instructions, for the computer that considers the shape that the backpack sensor data makes on a graph, as well as features of the data such as mean and max.

"Most algorithms use either shape or features, but not both," Abdoli said. "Our approach is exciting because it increases the accuracy of the data so much and is key to making good decisions about the chickens' health."

Traditional animal behavior studies have had to rely on video or visual observations, which can be both time consuming and prone to errors. Murillo did some flock observations at the beginning of the project to make sure the computer's conclusions about behaviors were accurate. Once they were certain, observations were no longer necessary, and the computer could take over.

Not only does this new approach increase the reliability of scientists' observations, it also increases the number of animals and length of time they can be tracked.

The flock in this study did suffer from a mite infestation, which the team related to an increase in cleaning behaviors. Once the birds were treated and healed, the data showed preening and dust baths went back to normal levels.

Far more than farm fashion, these "Fitbits for chickens" offer valuable information for livestock farmers.

"These results could let farmers know it's time to examine their birds for parasites," Murillo said. "And the tools we developed can also be used examine the effects of any change in a bird's environment or diet."

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Parasite infestations revealed by tiny chicken backpacks - Jill Lopez

Uncertainty during the pandemic can lead to depression, anxiety – University of Miami

Experts in psychology and business discuss how doubt affects individuals during times of increased stress.

Uncertainty is a constant in our lives.

Plan on a picnic. It might rain.

Ready for a trip and your car may get a flat tire or your reservations get lost.

Yet the uncertainty many feel during this pandemic seems to feel different. It seems more permanent.

Humans like to feel like they are in control, said Jill Ehrenreich-May, professor of psychology in the University of Miami College of Arts and Sciences. We work hard to feel in controlwhat we do for a living, how we run our families, and how we engage in social interactions.

COVID-19 has thrown off most vestiges of control, she said.

During COVID-19, that illusion of control has been taken away from us because we actually do not have the same freedoms and ability to enact those freedoms, said Ehrenreich-May.

Restrictionssuch as not being able to go to restaurants, bars, gyms, and the movies, or to visit relatives in nursing homes or hospitalsdisrupt the human psyche. Our lack of activity and routines during this pandemic may lead to increased depression and anxiety, she said. Uncertainty may worsen these conditions, because there is no timeline for the pandemic to end and for us to resume our pre-pandemic routines.

A recent study published in the American Medical Associations journal JAMA Network Open determined that nearly a quarter of people in the United States are experiencing symptoms of depression. These numbers are three times higher than before the pandemic, the study found.

But there are ways we can help ourselves, said Ehrenreich-May, and these involve focusing on what we can control.

For example, students may not be able to physically attend all classes, yet they can control how much they study and prepare for those classes, she pointed out. Also, mindfulness activities can help to keep us focused on remaining in the moment and learning to sit in the discomfort instead of jumping to maladaptive behavior such as drinking or overeating, she added.

Uncertainty can also offer unforeseen opportunities.

Alex Horenstein, assistant professor in economics at the University of Miami Patti and Allan Herbert Business School, focuses his research on financial and behavioral economics. He studies uncertain shocks that may affect the market and develops methods to mitigate those shocks in clients portfolios.

Most decisions involve some level of uncertainty, he said. The uncertainty itself is not what is generating high levels of anxiety right now, but its magnitude. It is the difficulty in being able to forecast what is going to happen. One thing is when a shock is transitory. Another thing is when there is a pandemic and you dont know if there will be a vaccine in a month, two months, or never.

His work has taught him that the best course to follow when there is uncertainty is to be conservative and not to panic. He mentioned those investors who back in March (at the beginning of the pandemic in the U.S.) decided not to invest in the stock market for fear that it would fall or even crash.

That was not a good decision because the stock market has had an incredible rally since then, Horenstein said. Historically, it has been a bad decision to sell after a drop in the stock market, because the U.S. economy soonerrather than latergoes back to the growing path.

He also noted that humans tend to be averse to risk.

We suffer more from losing than from winning, he said. And a period of uncertaintysuch as the one we are living incan also lead many to visualize the worst-case scenario. Thinking in a negative way can cause paralysis, Horenstein explained.

According to Ehrenreich-May, it is understandable that many will feel negatively and focus on the worst-case scenario. But, she pointed out, there are many resources to help.

She suggested an app, like Headspace, that provides mindfulness and meditation exercises for stress, anxiety, and other mental health issues.

For students, the app WellTrack, which can be accessed through the Counseling Center website, also offers useful exercises to deal with stress.

For those who may need more, she suggested books on cognitive behavior techniques, as well as seeking counseling.

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Uncertainty during the pandemic can lead to depression, anxiety - University of Miami

The Uninhabitable Earth: Unpleasant wake-up call to harrowing future – The Jakarta Post – Jakarta Post

The COVID-19 crisis has created several compelling conspiracy theories.

Some politicians and celebrities have exacerbated the widespread false claims and misinformation. One of the most prominent COVID-19 skeptics is Jerinx, an Indonesianmusician who vigorously endorsedconspiracy theories in his social media posts.

He claimed that the global elite, which consistedof Bill Gates and the World Health Organization (WHO), were the creators of COVID-19. He also denied the government's health protocols and firmly stated that the novel coronavirus was not harmful.

But the fact is that COVID-19 is a real threat to humanity. It was created neither by Bill Gates and the global elite nor the big pharma companies.

The crisis has been driven by environmental degradation, such as biodiversity loss and the acceleration of climate change that aggravates the spread of zoonotic diseases. However, it is unsurprising that many people are not aware of this as environmental destruction and its accompanying climate crisis are slow-onset hazards.

In turn, many people, including top politicians, have exploited this lack of popular awareness by proclaiming that climate change does not exist to move ahead with their agendas.

The Uninhabitable Earth: Life After Warming by David Wallace-Wells is an unpleasant wake-up call for all of us, especially to climate crisis deniers. This book is a riveting and terrifying account of our bleak future, drawing from numerous climate studies.

Wallace-Wells remorselessly delineates the notorious impact of human-induced disasters in a worst-case scenario. He spells out the adverse effects of climate crisis in his books first line as worse, much worse than you think.

He depicts the rapid devastation of the universe with an utterly convincing analysis. But this book is way too pessimistic, even depressing. Instead of prompting people to take action to respond to the crisis, it could drive them to learned helplessness or fatalism.

Wallace-Wells is a journalist and climate alarmist, though he does not definehimself as an environmentalist or a nature-person. He became a climate columnist in early 2016 after reading related studies,terrified of knowing how fast the climate has changed since the Industrial Revolution.

He felt compelled to writemore about climate change, considering that only a few mainstream media outlets covered it. In 2017, Wallace-Wells gained recognition after publishing a long-form article, The Uninhabitable Earth,for New York Magazine. The article went viral and sparked further public discussions on the climate emergency. In 2019, he elaborated more solid arguments into this book.

One of the most intriguing chapters in the book that is relevant to the current situation is Plagues of Warming. Albeit through a brief chapter, Wallace-Wells alludes to the immediate impact of climate change with pandemics concisely.

Long-dormant diseases have been trapped in permafrost soil for 1,000 or even 1 million years. Global heating has gradually meltedice sheets and ancient diseases could be unleashed. In Alaska, scientists discovered remnants of the 1918 flu that infected more than 500 million people.

In a laboratory, a 32,000-year-old extremophile bacteria was revived in 2005and an 8-million-year-old bug was brought back to life in 2007.If ancient diseases could wake, it means the modern human immune system does not know how to fight them.

Wallace-Wells portrays other devastating consequences of the climate crisis, such as heat death, unbreathable air, wildfires, sea-levels rising, perpetual conflicts, economic collapse and so on. The last report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicated1.5 degrees Celsius as a warming tipping point until the end of the century.

However, the temperature could actually rise from 4 to 8 degrees by 2100 if people do not make concerted efforts to reduce carbon emissions. This year, the United States National Weather Service recorded the highest temperature ever, 54.4 degrees,in Death Valley National Park, California.

Extreme heat also occurred in Greater London when temperatures reached 37.8 degrees last July. Multiple cascading catastrophes would likely happenbecause of global heating. Rising sea-level could amount to constant major flooding in Miami, Dhaka, Shanghai, Hong Kongand many other cities.

This book dissects the root causes of the climate crisis in a comprehensive manner. Instead of saying that the climate crisis is merely a natural phenomenon, Wallace-Wells delves deep into the political and socioeconomic dimensions of the crisis.

Pursuing economic growth requires sacrifices and trade-offs. In the last 25 years, fossil fuel burning for industrial activities has contributed to half of all greenhouse gas emissions. Research has revealed that more than 10,000 people die each day from the small particles emitted from fossil-fuel burning. An air apocalypsehas occurred in some countries in Asia that could trigger climate genocide.

To prevent this harrowing future, a radical change of human behavior towardthe environment is crucial. Wallace-Wells does not underestimate individual initiatives in combating the climate crisis.

But realizing the massive and rapid destruction nowadays entails significant actions through public policy. When it comes to government political commitment, it is harder to deal with. It is worth to mentionthat some Nordic and Western European countries have pledged to reduce carbon emissions as their long-term goal.But Norway, whichcommits a net-zero target by 2030, still hasa national oil business that will continue drilling for oil until 2075.

On the one hand, this book is a potent reminder to reflect what Anthropocene and the climate crisis mean to our existence.On the other hand, Wallace-Wells' illustration from the first chapter to the end tends to scare and create panic rather than offering a middle ground. This approach probably will not raise the ideal self-awareness.

Wallace-Wells suggests that only a technological solution and a social-political transformation at the macro level could significantly save us from devastation, which is not always the case. On top of that, thebook also focuses only on human beings, neglectingother species that are also in danger.

Despite its pessimistic tone, this book is recommended to those who want to know the bigger picture of the climate crisis. It sits on the complete opposite of The Future We Choose: Surviving the Climate Crisis by Christiana Figueres and Tom Rivett-Carnac, which hasa more optimistic and inspiring tone.The crisis also gave way to climate activists, for instance.

In addition to Greta Thunberg, environmental movements at the grassroots level are fighting for climate justice. Different from Wallace-Wells, I think every action by an individual or a small group counts and is pivotal to the sustainability of our planet. We could start with a small step, such as eating local foods, planting a tree, reducing plastic consumptionand using public transportation. (wng)

The Uninhabitable Earth: Life After Warming

David Wallace-Wells

320 pages

2019, Penguin Random House

***

Fikri Angga Reksa is a researcher at the Center for Area Studies LIPI. He loves reading, travelingand watching live concerts in his leisure time. He was one of the original members of the Baca Rasa Dengar book club when it was established in 2015.

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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect the official stance of The Jakarta Post.

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The Uninhabitable Earth: Unpleasant wake-up call to harrowing future - The Jakarta Post - Jakarta Post

‘The Madness of Incarceration’: The Corrosive Effect of US Jails and Prisons – Crime Report

After decades of living with a criminal justice system that is far more focused on punishment than rehabilitation, many Americans have seemingly resigned themselves to, and in some cases embraced, the dehumanizing narrative that people in prisons and jails belong there and that even the most terrible treatment they may receive can be justified.

However, for Dr. Christine Montross, an associate professor of psychiatry and human behavior at the Warren Alpert Medical School of Brown University and a practicing inpatient psychiatrist, prisons are more often filled with people who do not belong there at all and, especially for the mentally ill, can make those who are sick even more unwell.

In her new book, Waiting For An Echo: The Madness of American Incarceration, Dr. Montross uses the stories of men and women held inside our nations prisons and jails to expose the debilitating realities of life behind bars, and to investigate in particular why so many of the mentally ill find themselves entangled in a legal system that neither truly understands nor accounts for them.

In a recent conversation with The Crime Report, Montross discussed why society is so quick to denigrate and misjudge both our nations prison population and the mentally ill, describes how the very architecture of prisons contradicts the goal of rehabilitation, and suggests where we can look to find examples of positive reform in this country today.

Below is a slightly edited and abridged version of the conversation.

The Crime Report: What prompted you to work on this project?

Christine Montross: The project really began in the midst of my work at psychiatric hospital units. I am an inpatient psychiatrist who works with severely mentally ill people who are hospitalized. Over the course of my work with them, I was surprised to learn how often they came in contact with the police and how often they went through periods of incarceration. And what I learned in talking with so many of them was that, when they had encounters with the police, those times very rarely had anything to do with criminal intentbut, instead, often had quite a lot to do with their symptomatology.

These were people who were shouting in a Starbucks or charging through TSA with the delusional belief that they had to get on a plane to Washington D.C. What I began to see was that, in the moment of the police encounter, there were clinical decisions being made. Police were deciding whether someone should be brought to the hospital or to jail and those environments are obviously incredibly different: one has a therapeutic intention and one has a punitive intention. My patients predictably fared very differently depending on where they were taken.

So, I started performing competency-to-stand-trial evaluations in the jails and prisons to get a first-hand look at what was happening to people in the system. The book began to take shape as I saw not just that people with mental illness got worse in prison, but also that prison was really designed to be a place where even psychologically stable people became less well.

TCR: Your book reveals that this design and purpose is exhibited in the very architecture of these facilities.

CM: I was so interested to learn that criminal justice architecture was a specialty. I was then shocked to learn that the field was not necessarily driven by the intent to design places with hope and healing at the center, but that, instead, utility drove much of it and there was a real emphasis on having the environment itself be a punitive design.

One architect spoke about wanting nothing soft, wanting the design to be very hard. This is in a supermax prison in Connecticut where the noise just reverberates in jarring ways off of concrete and metal at all times. You feel when you go in as if you are underground, even though you arent. And the architect describes the desire for the design to have an intentional sense of foreboding, wanting detainees to enter into that space, and feel as if they have this long, long road ahead of them. I was saddened to learn about a field where, in addition to the punishment of taking away someones liberty, we are also designing spaces with the intention that they be unpleasant and dehumanizing to live within.

TCR: What are some of the psychological effects of being in those spaces, and how do they exacerbate the already dangerous environment of prison?

CM: We know as human beings that we have fundamental needs for connection, movement, fresh air, quiet, sunshine, etc. Many of these things are restricted or eliminated in these prison environments. One of the concepts that was fascinating in learning about prison architecture was the idea of borrowed light: that there are ways that light can be provided internally in a building without actually providing access to a window or a view of the outside. There are ways to have light shaped and bent in such a way that people have illuminated spaces without actually being able to see outside.

I thought about how healing it is for all of us, just to sit in front of a window or sit in a place with a horizon. So, the idea that we would want to restrict peoples ability to have those moments of reflection and calm and centering was really striking to me. There is a long history in this country, from the earliest days of American hospitals and asylums, of really understanding that fresh air, sunshine and a beautiful view have important healing effects for all of us. But think about being exposed to extreme levels of loud noise for periods of time or having sensory deprivation from not seeing anything other than the three walls of your cell 23 hours a day in solitary confinement.

You have these real extremes of sensory overload from unpleasant stimuli, and sensory deprivation from not seeing color, daylight, other people, etc. Those contrasts are really two ends of a spectrum. Neither is healthy for human beings.

TCR: Why does society generally misunderstand the people who wind up in prison?

CM: I think it is more comfortable for us as a society to believe that everyone who is in prison belongs there and that the people who are in prison are fundamentally different than those of us who are not. The chapter in the book, Born on Third Base, comes from a saying that the adults in my life in Indiana would use about someone who overestimated their own worth or accomplishments. They would say he was born on third base and thinks he hit a triple. And the more closely I looked into who we were incarcerating as a country, the more plain it became that the people we are incarcerating are not just people who are committing horrible acts; theyre also people who are our most vulnerable: the poor, racial minorities, in particular African-American men, the mentally ill, and the substance addicted.

People wind up in prison many times due to psychiatric reasons, addiction, and our prejudices as a society. I wrote that chapter in part to acknowledge that it is dishonest to say that those of us who live free lives do not break the law and that people who are incarcerated are fundamentally different from the rest of us. A group of my friends got together at a dinner party and I asked them to list all the ways that theyve broken the law. We came up with this enormous list. These are responsible tax-paying parents and professionals. The purpose of that exercise was to say that the difference is not in our capacity to commit crimes, but in our ability to extricate ourselves from them.

Its easier to want other people to suffer when you see them as very different from yourself. If people are ever going to agree that its wrong to cause people suffering in the way that we do when we incarcerate them, then its critical to say that some of the people whom we are harming are innocent, and some are serving time for crimes that those of us who live free lives have committed without consequence.

TCR: Many of those people are also children. How does incarceration affect them?

CM: The current moment is providing a rare opportunity for people to have an empathic understanding of what we do to kids when we incarcerate them. There has been this real outcry and shared understanding of how the pandemic has isolated children, in particular adolescents, from each other at a time that we know is really critical for them to be having contact, especially physical contact, with their peers.

These are things that we are aware of as parents and a society that our children are missing out on and that concerns us; and it should. The obvious correlation to that is to think about the fact that our society is one that sends children into these facilities to live in cages. We are sending children behind bars where we intentionally separate them from the adults in their lives, from their peers, their schools, their sports, and their routines. This has the capacity to do grave damage at a time of really critical neurodevelopment.

Studies show that kids who are institutionally reared, kids who are raised in orphanages and other institutions, have a different neurological makeup than kids who are raised outside of institutions. When we send children into these institutions we have to reckon with the damage that we are doing and try to mitigate that damage. Two parts that are critically important is that we have to acknowledge that we disproportionately send black and brown children to these environments rather than community service or probation, and that we still allow kids to be sent to solitary confinement for extremely prolonged periods, even up to a year. Just think about the needs that the developing brain of a child has for interaction, touch, schedules, responsibility, educationand then how devastating it must be to be incarcerated in solitary confinement as a child.

TCR: How does prison potentially make good people worse and necessitate an embrasure of violent behavior just to be seen?

CM: We know there are high rates of violence in prison. There are also very high rates of self- injury in prison. These are people who are cutting themselves, banging their heads against walls, things like that. And in the prison environment that behavior is almost always interpreted as sociopathy, as bad behavior, as acting out, seeking attention, and trying to cause trouble in the prison system.

What I came to understand while researching how human beings respond to situations in which they are isolated, in which they lose their avenues of expression and control, is that these are really predictable ways for human beings to respond to draconian environments. One of the examples that really stood out for me was a report on Cuban migrants who were attempting to come to the United States by boat. These were migrants attempting to cross under the wet foot/dry foot policy, the idea that if they could get a dry foot on U.S. soil then they would be allowed to stay. So, in desperation, the migrants were doing things that you would never have imagined: swallowing dangerous objects, ingesting dangerous chemicals, harming themselves in ways that would necessitate that they be brought to a hospital in order to be permitted to stay.

When we have a prison environment in which we constrain every means of movement, liberty, and self-expression, where we so often dont meet even the fundamental needs of people held therein, then the only means of communication and protest that exist for them is to behave in these primitive ways. Rather than seeing this as something that people were doing as an act of misbehavior, I came to see it as behavior that was a product of the environment and, in fact, a last resort.

TCR: How do we expand societys understanding of these kinds of human complexities, especially when it comes to dealing with mental illness?

CM: We have to make a safe space for people to share their own experiences. When people begin to feel as though they can write about, talk about, and express their or their family members experiences with mental illness without judgement, then we have a broader understanding of both how mental illness can manifest itself and how pervasive it is in all of our families. The reduction of stigma is important to that.

We also have criminalized mental illness in a way that makes people fearful of it. This is different from how people perceive diabetes or cardiac disease. When someone is having a psychiatric emergency, and the only response we have available is to call the police, that narrows our understanding and reduces our empathy for the mentally ill because it sends a signal that this is something dangerous and to be feared. The consequences of that, as weve seen with Daniel Prude, can be catastrophic.

The fact that police are the front line of mental health emergencies means that you are calling on them to respond to what should really be a clinical situation. Whats so tragic in these situations is that its often family members who are desperate for help, dont know where to turn, dont have resources available, who call the police. The reality is that people with mental illness are 16 times more likely to be killed by the police than people who are mentally well. We have taken mental illness out of the auspices of health care and put it under the auspices of police and prisons. That does a disservice to our understanding of, and compassion for, mental illness and the people who struggle with it.

TCR: You demonstrate the importance of practicing de-escalation and empathy when dealing with prison populations, whether mentally ill or not. Do you think its possible for police and corrections officers to achieve the same level of expertise in that area?

CM: When I write about the deescalations that take place with my staff, those are in a psychiatric hospital, not in jails and prisons. Its important to understand that those types of approaches of understanding, targeted treatment, and de-escalation skills are very much the norm in therapeutic environments. They are not the norm in our nations jails and prisons because the primary goal of a hospital is healing and health, while the primary goal of jails and prisons is security and control. We cant pretend to have the same expectations for both places.

But our understanding of the difference in those places should underscore for us how inappropriate it is to have people with severe mental illness in jails and prisons where they cannot reliably comply and obey in the ways that those environments insist upon. And the argument about police is a critically important one.

In my mind, the question of whether police could learn to better handle psychiatric emergencies is the wrong question. The question should be: Who are the best people to respond to psychological emergencies? How does our society want to respond to mental health crises?

I would argue it should be no different than other health care emergencies. Just as we have EMTs who show up on the scene and are capable of assessing whats going on and starting an IV, stopping bleeding, stabilizing someone, supplying oxygen, we also ought to have psych teams and mental health teams that are the first responders to psych emergencies and are equally trained and skilled to assess and intervene in therapeutic ways, rather than the knee-jerk response of involving law enforcement.

TCR: Police are responding to these situations largely because theres a gross lack of social services for the mentally ill in communities around the country. How do we tighten that social safety net and provide the services these people need to keep them away from police and out of prisons?

CM: We need to be honest about the severity of the mental health cuts that our country has carried out really since the 1950s. Look back to the 2008 recession, when psychiatric beds were [reduced] across the country and enormous numbers of dollars were cut from mental health budgets everywhere as well.

We need to consider this within the framework of health care. We would never take someone to jail to ensure that they got treatment for their hypertension or incarcerate someone to make sure they got their chemotherapy. This is another example of the unjust ways that we look at mental illness differently from other issues in health care.

TCR: One of the most unjust and dehumanizing treatments of those incarcerated is the use of solitary confinement. Why are we still a country that maintains something as torturous as solitary confinement; and how has it become the go-to punishment in prisons?

CM: There are two main contributing factors. One is that solitary confinement as a punishment is entirely adjudicated within the prison facilities themselves. Unlike sentencing, where theres oversight, public knowledge, where its within the framework of our judicial system, theres no outside judicial system involved in sending someone to solitary. People dont get sentenced to solitary confinement; they accumulate often nonviolent infractions, like having too many postage stamps, or too many pencils, or refusing certain meals, that result in them being sent there.

The second piece is that, as a society, we take the stance that once you are in prison that proves youve done something wrong, and therefore theres no limit to the degree to which you should be permitted to suffer. People will often say if you cant stand the time dont do the crime. Thats essentially saying if you have been found guilty of something and find yourself in jail or prison, then people can do whatever they want to you because you have failed morally. But if we pause to think clearly about those we incarcerate, people wind up in prisons for all kinds of different reasons. Huge numbers of people in our nations jails are pretrial detainees who have not been found guilty of anything.

The idea that we can just blanketly mistreat people is a dangerous one. Its also dangerous because 95 percent of people in our countrys correctional facilities are released. Its a disservice to ourselves and our communities to degrade and dehumanize people while they are incarcerated because theyll return to our communities less stable, less strong, and less well. We say we want safety and justice, but if we really want those things our priorities cant also be suffering and vengeance.

TCR: The environments of suffering and vengeance in these facilities also have a detrimental effect on the people employed there.

CM: Thats a critical piece of this equation. When we talk about facilities that are intentionally designed to feel jarring and unpleasant, it affects not only the people who are incarcerated in them but also the people who go to work there every day. We have to acknowledge that these are difficult places for people to work and that the often antagonistic relationships that are established between correctional officers and detainees are hard on both sides of that equation.

There are models of places where that relationship is more collaborative and job satisfaction is much higher in those kinds of arrangements. But its an incredibly stressful job to be in these environments, which are sometimes fraught with violence and danger. We know that the suicide rate among correctional officers is higher even than police. Job satisfaction is low and levels of PTSD are very high. Its an extremely difficult job and we do a disservice if we just make this a black and white issue.

Many of the correctional officers that I met felt as though they were doing a service to their community by doing this incredibly hard job that few want to do. Its also important to acknowledge that the job of the correctional officer is that much more difficult when talking about the incarcerated mentally ill. Those of us who work with psychiatrically ill patients in facilities are especially trained to do so. Its hard work, but weve been given a specific skill set and education to help us understand and intervene.

Thats not the case for corrections officers. They are charged increasingly in these overcrowded environments with asserting control, often with people who have symptoms of mental illness that officers havent been trained to handle. We have to understand what were asking officers to do. Many whom I spoke with shared my sense that mentally ill people did not belong in this environment. The system is really damaging to everyone, whether they work in it or are held in it.

TCR: Your research took you to similarly purposed facilities in Scandinavia. What did you learn there?

CM: A couple of the really key concepts that we would do well to incorporate in America have to do both with the sense of the purpose of the sentence and also the philosophy behind that sentence. When people are incarcerated in Norway and in Sweden, the first step of their incarceration is a needs assessment, where they do an in-depth interview to understand what are the factors of a persons life that led them to criminal behavior.

Then the objective of the period of incarceration is to address those needs so that when the person leaves prison they are less apt to commit a crime. If you have substance abuse problems, you will use the time of your sentence to get treatment and counseling. If you lack job skills there will be job training that youre involved in. If you need education youll go to school. Anger management, parenting classes, relationship counseling, financial planningall of these will be provided as ways to shore up any deficits in a persons life that may have contributed to their involvement in criminal behavior. The sentence is viewed as a constructive period of time with a very clear aim: Youre going to leave here, youre not going to commit crime, and youre not going to come back.

Thats what we say we want as a society. What Norway and Sweden demonstrate is that their way works. We know from our recidivism numbers that our way doesnt. When programming is provided, when education is provided, when health and mental health treatment are provided, we obtain the goals that we set for recidivism. We would be wise to pay attention to that. But what gets in the way is the philosophical part.

Norwegian prisons went through a time where they had much of the same upheaval and discord that mars our prisons today: violence in their prisons, detainees who were escaping, correction officers being killed, and very high recidivism rates. Then there was a philosophical shift that emerged where they decided to stop meeting hard with hard and start meeting hard with soft.

Harsh draconian environments, vengeance, and strict control, were not yielding the outcomes they wanted, so they shifted; and the primary shift was to redefine the role of a correctional officer so that it was more akin to the role of a social worker. They were meant to provide security, but also to really get to know the detainees and to try and talk with them about why they had done the things they had done, what they needed to do to change, and what their plans were for the future. This redefined role reduced antagonism between officers and detainees, created a more collaborative environment, and reduced recidivism from numbers in the 70th percentile to numbers in the 20th percentile. The philosophical change demands a change in our outlook.

We need to stop insisting upon prison being unpleasant, dehumanizing and degrading. We have to be willing to say that if we really want outcomes of safety and justice, then we have to treat the people that we hold in our prisons with humanity and provide some help to them while they are in our facilities.

TCR: What are the ethical costs of this punitive philosophy of criminal justice and incarceration and how do we change it?

CM: It starts with a willingness to look both at the people were incarcerating and the places that we are sending them. What I found often as I was writing this book was that people would voice their support for being tough on crime. But then, when I asked them about a specific person that I had encountered, they offered a very different opinion. One example from the book is about a woman who was pregnant and was told that she would not be permitted to take her baby home from the hospital if she didnt have a car seat. She was destitute, so she shoplifted items from a store in order to sell them to buy a car seat. She was picked up by police and taken to jail.

When I asked people what should happen to her, the very same people who said we need to be tough on crime, gave a range of responses from her having to repay the store for the items she stole, to having to do community service, to being connected with organizations that could provide a poor mother with a car seat. What happened was she was taken to jail, was unable to post even a minor sum of bail, and actually delivered her baby in jail. People are appalled and shocked to learn this.

Theres a fundamental disconnect between our sense that when we vote tough on crime we are somehow helping people in our communities when, in fact, we are the ones who are sending children to detention facilities, who are sending men and women to solitary confinement, who are sending women to jail to birth their babies behind bars.

*What gives me hope is that when I tell these personal stories to people, or describe the conditions in prisons that I see, people are justifiably upset by them. I hope that if we can show people what our practices are doing, then the fundamental decency in human beings will kick in. For so long prison has been a place that we dont want to look. We send people there, lock them up, throw away the key, and dont think about them because theyre bad people. But the truth is far more complicated than that.

TCR: Are there any tangible signs of change that make you optimistic for the future?

CM: There are lots. There are groups of police who are having social workers and mental health clinicians ride with them in police cars. There are prisons that are beginning to seek alternatives to solitary confinement. Theres a group in California that, through the prison law office, is taking groups of stakeholders from different state prisons, legislators, wardens, and corrections officers, over to Germany and Norway to show them how these practices are working and help them gain understanding and buy in for how this situation is better for outcomes, detainees, and people who work within the prisons.

Theres a movement afoot in lots of different realms. Our states have so much autonomy and power over their jail and prison systems and I think that some are showing interest in experimenting with eliminating cash bail. I also have a lot of hope for the current moment when we as a nation are reckoning with policing.

I think that the natural extension of policing is our jails and prisons. It gives me quite a bit of hope that we are really looking critically for the first time at our nations legal system and determining what we want it to look like. We are acknowledging that there should be humanity in our legal system and asking how important it is to us that fairness and justice are at the center of that system.

Isidoro Rodriguez is a contributing writer for The Crime Report. He welcomes readers comments.

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'The Madness of Incarceration': The Corrosive Effect of US Jails and Prisons - Crime Report

Algorithms may never really figure us out thank goodness – The Boston Globe

An unlikely scandal engulfed the British government last month. After COVID-19 forced the government to cancel the A-level exams that help determine university admission, the British education regulator used an algorithm to predict what score each student would have received on their exam. The algorithm relied in part on how the schools students had historically fared on the exam. Schools with richer children tended to have better track records, so the algorithm gave affluent students even those on track for the same grades as poor students much higher predicted scores. High-achieving, low-income pupils whose schools had not previously performed well were hit particularly hard. After threats of legal action and widespread demonstrations, the government backed down and scrapped the algorithmic grading process entirely. This wasnt an isolated incident: In the United States, similar issues plagued the International Baccalaureate exam, which used an opaque artificial intelligence system to set students' scores, prompting protests from thousands of students and parents.

These episodes highlight some of the pitfalls of algorithmic decision-making. As technology advances, companies, governments, and other organizations are increasingly relying on algorithms to predict important social outcomes, using them to allocate jobs, forecast crime, and even try to prevent child abuse. These technologies promise to increase efficiency, enable more targeted policy interventions, and eliminate human imperfections from decision-making processes. But critics worry that opaque machine learning systems will in fact reflect and further perpetuate shortcomings in how organizations typically function including by entrenching the racial, class, and gender biases of the societies that develop these systems. When courts and parole boards have used algorithms to forecast criminal behavior, for example, they have inaccurately identified Black defendants as future criminals more often than their white counterparts. Predictive policing systems, meanwhile, have led the police to unfairly target neighborhoods with a high proportion of non-white people, regardless of the true crime rate in those areas. Companies that have used recruitment algorithms have found that they amplify bias against women.

But there is an even more basic concern about algorithmic decision-making. Even in the absence of systematic class or racial bias, what if algorithms struggle to make even remotely accurate predictions about the trajectories of individuals' lives? That concern gains new support in a recent paper published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. The paper describes a challenge, organized by a group of sociologists at Princeton University, involving 160 research teams from universities across the country and hundreds of researchers in total, including one of the authors of this article. These teams were tasked with analyzing data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, an ongoing study that measures various life outcomes for thousands of families who gave birth to children in large American cities around 2000. It is one of the richest data sets available to researchers: It tracks thousands of families over time, and has been used in more than 750 scientific papers.

The task for the teams was simple. They were given access to almost all of this data and asked to predict several important life outcomes for a sample of families. Those outcomes included the childs grade point average, their grit (a commonly used measure of passion and perseverance), whether the household would be evicted, the material hardship of the household, and whether the parent would lose their job.

The teams could draw on almost 13,000 predictor variables for each family, covering areas such as education, employment, income, family relationships, environmental factors, and child health and development. The researchers were also given access to the outcomes for half of the sample, and they could use this data to hone advanced machine-learning algorithms to predict each of the outcomes for the other half of the sample, which the organizers withheld. At the end of the challenge, the organizers scored the 160 submissions based on how well the algorithms predicted what actually happened in these peoples lives.

The results were disappointing. Even the best performing prediction models were only marginally better than random guesses. The models were rarely able to predict a students GPA, for example, and they were even worse at predicting whether a family would get evicted, experience unemployment, or face material hardship. And the models gave almost no insight into how resilient a child would become.

In other words, even having access to incredibly detailed data and modern machine learning methods designed for prediction did not enable the researchers to make accurate forecasts. The results of the Fragile Families Challenge, the authors conclude, with notable understatement, raise questions about the absolute level of predictive performance that is possible for some life outcomes, even with a rich data set.

Of course, machine learning systems may be much more accurate in other domains; this paper studied the predictability of life outcomes in only one setting. But the failure to make accurate predictions cannot be blamed on the failings of any particular analyst or method. Hundreds of researchers attempted the challenge, using a wide range of statistical techniques, and they all failed.

These findings suggest that we should doubt that big data can ever perfectly predict human behavior and that policymakers working in criminal justice policy and child-protective services should be especially cautious. Even with detailed data and sophisticated prediction techniques, there may be fundamental limitations on researchers' ability to make accurate predictions. Human behavior is inherently unpredictable, social systems are complex, and the actions of individuals often defy expectations.

And yet disappointing as this may be for technocrats and data scientists, it also suggests something reassuring about human potential. If life outcomes are not firmly pre-determined if an algorithm, given a set of past data points, cannot predict a persons trajectory then the algorithms limitations ultimately reflect the richness of humanitys possibilities.

Bryan Schonfeld and Sam Winter-Levy are PhD candidates in politics at Princeton University.

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Algorithms may never really figure us out thank goodness - The Boston Globe

Is Twitter Racist? Viral Experiment Shows Algorithm Choosing Ananya Pandey’s Face over Beyonce’s – News18

Is Twitter racist? A recent experiment seems to prove it is | Image credit: Twitter

The recent killings of Geroge Floyd, Breonna Taylor, and Ahmed Arbury's have cast fresh light on systemic racial discrimination that exists in countries like the United States and the United Kingdom. And now, more and more research is coming to light, proving that racial discrimination does not just exist in human behavior and systems but also in the digital tools that we create.

In a Twitter experiment, cryptocurrency, programming, and infrastructure security expert Tony Arcieri recently exhibited how the microblogging and photo-sharing site's algorithm preferred white faces.

Arcieri used two photos, one of former US President Barack Obama and Republican Senator Mitch McConnell from Kentucky to find out if the Jack Dorsey-founded platform is racially selective. As it turns out, it is.

Arcieri used a series of images in which he put two photos of Obama and McConnell in various permutations and combinations (but only in a vertical format where one photo follows the other.

In each case, the algorithm chose to make McConnell's face the thumbnail instead of Obama's. The latter's face was only revealed once you clicked on the image.

It was only after the skin colors of both the photos were inverted that the thumbnail chose a face as per the order in which the photos appeared.

A user tried to reason with the critics, claiming that the bias was based on a design flaw, not racist prejudice. But another Twitter user by the name of Mitch Benn responded, claiming, "Something doesnt have to be 'designed to be racist' to be racist".

The experiment soon went viral with others trying it out for themselves to check if the racial bias actually existed. Indian columnist Sahil Rizwan took two photos - one of singer Beyonce and the other of Bollywood actress Ananya Pandey. Pandey's face was chosen by Twitter's algorithm as the photo thumbnail.

Coming in the wake of accusations of racism against the makers of Pandey and Ishan Khattar's upcoming film "Khaali Peeli" which stumbled into controversy for a song initially titled "Beyonce Sharma Jayegi", Rizwan's post has since been going viral,

This is not the first experiment or study that found systemic racism against non-white people with digital tools such as auto health assessment and facial recognition.

A recent study published in Science magazine in October 2019 found that a popular algorithm used by healthcare systems in the United States to assess the health of patients almost always refers a white person to better, more complex treatment while not referring the same to a black person with identical afflictions.

Racism in electronic media and digital tools impacts people of colour at all levels starting from healthcare to education to biases in the criminal justice system that favours whites.

Facial recognition technology - used to unlock smartphones or for security clearances at airports - depends on matching photo of a face to existing photos from police databases, mugshots, passport photos etc. A 2019 US government study confirmed that almost 200 of the top facial recognition-based security systems used in the US used an algorithm which was not "designed to be racist" but ended up being so just the same by throwing up a higher number of false-positive matches for Asian and African-American faces over Caucasian faces.

A September 2020 report by a team of researchers at the University of Toronto's Munk School and the International Human Rights Program at the University of Toronto's Faculty of Law released a report that looked at the impact of algorithm policing technologies on people of colour and ethnic minorities such as Asians. The report found that the existing technologies reinforce biases against ethnic minorities and people of color.

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Is Twitter Racist? Viral Experiment Shows Algorithm Choosing Ananya Pandey's Face over Beyonce's - News18

Climate change is fueling wildfires in the West, ravaging local economies – CNBC

Bobcat fire approaches Sierra Madre and Arcadia communities in California, U.S., September 13, 2020 in this picture obtained from social media. Photo taken September 13, 2020.

John Mirabella | Reuters

Despite official resistance to the idea in the Trump administration, the wildfires raging across California, Oregon and Washington swallowing millions of acres and leaving unbelievable destruction in their wake are unequivocally the latest indication of climate change, according to a consensus of scientists. And beyond the extreme emotional toll for those affected, the long-lasting damage has economic ramifications that extend from the impacted communities themselves all the way to the heart of the country's financial institutions. All told, the physical damages could mount into the hundreds of billions of dollars, while jeopardizing the stability of local and community banks, as well as insurance markets.

The figures are staggering. More than 17,000 firefighters are currently battling 25 major wildfires in California alone, and more than 3.3 million acres have burned across the state this year. Fire activity has been elevated since Aug. 15 in California, during which time 25 people have died, and more than 4,200 structures have been destroyed. In Oregon, more than 940,000 acres have burned, leaving at least ten people dead, while fires have ripped through more than 600,000 acres in Washington. In total, the fires have burned an area larger than New Jersey.

Wildfires have always been a part of life on the West Coast, in particular, where urban areas and forests closely abut each other and the climate inland is arid. But warmer temperatures and drier conditions, caused by climate change, have made the wildfire season longer and more intense, with increasingly devastating consequences.

"Science is very clear that there is a direct link between warming and more burning," said Jennifer Balch, an associate professor of geography at the University of Colorado Boulder. "If we don't take the science seriously, we're essentially putting lives and homes at tremendous risk."

"The fingerprints of climate change are all over what we're seeing right now in California, Oregon and Washington," added Rachel Cleetus, policy director for the climate and energy program at The Union of Concerned Scientists. "This is a moment that should be a super sobering alarm and wake-up call."

As the fires rage on, the issue has taken center stage on the campaign trail. President Donald Trump, who has questioned human-caused climate change, has repeatedly said the fires are due to poor forest management. Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden has taken a very different stance, saying during a speech on Monday that "It [climate change] is happening everywhere. It is happening now. It affects us all."

Forest management certainly plays a role in maintaining healthy ecosystems, but experts are quick to note that it is not the leading factor in the size and scope of the fires we are seeing today. There are short-term fixes and preventative measures that at-risk communities can take, including prescribed burning and choosing more fire-resistant materials for houses. But at the end of the day, only so much can be done at the local level.

"California, folks, is America fast forward," Governor Gavin Newsom said during a press conference on Friday. "What we're experiencing right here is coming to communities all across the United States of America unless we get our act together on climate change."

Climate change is causing hotter temperatures and drier soils, early snow melts and long droughts, all of which are prime conditions for out-of-control fires. The last decade was the warmest on record 2019 was the second-hottest year in history and 2020 is on track to be one of the 10 hottest years ever recorded.

"This decade is way worse than the previous several decades," said Balch, who is also director of the University of Colorado Boulder's Earth Lab, of the fires. "I'm expecting that this trend is going to continue, and that we're going to see more big fire years in the years to come."

Forest management, including years of fire suppression, does play a role, said Cleetus of the Union of Concerned Scientists. Without prescribed burnings, which are typically low-intensity fires that target underbrush, flammable materials build up on the forest floor. That means that once a fire starts, plentiful underbrush causes more powerful flames, including those that shoot up into the canopy, bringing down big trees. Additionally, there are now more people and structures at the wildland-urban interface, which are in or adjacent to areas prone to wildfires.

But Cleetus is clear that climate change, rather than forest management, is the predominant factor. "Forest management is no panacea for what we're seeing right now in the West," she told CNBC. "Conditions are such now, because of climate change, that we're going to continue to see these longer, more intense, more disruptive fire seasons. Climate change is a major driver behind the growth of these wildfires."

Amid the destruction, Washington Governor Jay Inslee has said that rather than calling these catastrophic fires "wildfires," they should instead be known as "climate fires."

"We know why this is happening They're climate fires because that's what creates the conditions that makes them so explosive," he said on Sept. 11.

The Webber family search for belongings through their home, which was gutted by the Almeda fire, in Talent, Oregon, U.S., September 13, 2020.

Adrees Latif | Reuters

While acknowledging the role of climate change and the need for policy action at the federal and state level, there are some immediate actions that states facing massive wildfires can take in order to reduce risk. Most importantly, Balch noted that we need to move away from the "emergency response mindset."

The U.S. spends billions of dollars fighting fires each year, but just a fraction of that is spent on preventative measures. One effective remedy might be to increase prescribed burning, although Balch said that can be difficult, thanks to opposition from local communities who don't want the smoke, among other things.

Using fire-resistant building materials could also be helpful. But downed power lines also lead to fire, as does careless human behavior. Over 80% of fires are started by people, through such things as camp fires, explosive fireworks and cigarette butts.

California, folks, is America fast forward. What we're experiencing right here is coming to communities all across the United States of America unless we get our act together on climate change."

Gavin Newsom

Governor of California

"There's a lot of ways that we start fires that we're not acknowledging, which is also part of the problem," Balch told CNBC. "We need more comprehensive policies from the local to the state to the national," added Cleetus. "This is not something that individual communities and individual homeowners are going to be able to solve on their own."

While the West Coast grapples with fires, other parts of the U.S. face their own extreme weather events. Hurricane Sally became the latest storm to batter the Gulf Coast after it made landfall on Wednesday, as this year's hurricane season continues to set records. It's just another instance of climate change at work, according to scientists.

The carcass of a burned car is seen by the Oak Park Motel destroyed by the flames of the Beachie Creek Fire in Gates, east of Salem, Oregon on September 13, 2020.

Rob Schumacher | AFP | Getty Images

Since the 1980s, the total damage from extreme weather events has reached $1.75 trillion and the annual figures have quadrupled, according to Nathaniel Keohane, who is senior vice president for climate at the Environmental Defense Fund.

"No one's given an estimate so far of what this is going to cost, but it's definitely in the tens of billions or hundreds of billions of dollars," former presidential candidate Tom Steyer said Monday on CNBC's "Closing Bell."

But beyond the dollar value of physical damages, extreme weather events also pose a risk to the stability of the country's financial system, which underpins the day-to-day actions that drive the economy, from small-business loans, to home mortgages, to commercial real estate loans.

"All of those things are dependent on the financial sector and the stability of the financial sector," Keohane told CNBC. He said risks are especially high at the regional level, where climate events can jeopardize the health of community banks. Financial institutions in places like Florida and the Gulf Coast, for example, that hold a lot of real estate are vulnerable to the hurricanes and flooding that the region faces. In the Midwest, climate change-driven droughts are compromising agricultural banks that farmers depend on for loans. The connection between climate change and the financial risk at both the national and regional level is not new, but as extreme weather events become more frequent, the consequences compound.

Keohane was one of the committee members behind a recent report commissioned by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission titled "Managing Climate Risk in the U.S. Financial System."

Fire is seen in Salem City, Oregon, U.S., September 8, 2020, in this picture obtained from social media. Picture taken September 8, 2020.

ZAK STONE | ZAK STONE via REUTERS

The report concluded that "a world racked by frequent and devastating shocks from climate change cannot sustain the fundamental conditions supporting our financial system."

If California were a stand-alone country, it would be the fifth-largest economy in the world, meaning disruptions caused by the fires can have severe financial implications. The U.S. depends on California's agricultural produce. Outdoor laborers who are currently harvesting are being exposed to dangerous smoke conditions, while vineyards in wine country that might otherwise have welcomed tourists have been forced to close.

"Climate change has the potential to create the kind of risks that are going to become increasingly uninsurable," Rachel Cleetus said.

She noted that low-income communities and communities of color are often those most exposed to climate change-related risks, whether it be wildfires, hurricanes or droughts. In California, for example, the cost of housing has pushed people into high-risk areas that were previously uninhabited. Looking ahead, she argues that carefully crafted national policies need to be implemented. They can't just restrict housing. Rather, they have to provide a pathway so that people have options and don't have to stay in places that are putting them at risk. "The burden is extraordinary and it will hurt low-income folks the most," she said.

An orange glow suffuses this San Francisco street as wildfire smoke fills the atmosphere on Sept. 9, 2020.

Jordan Novet | CNBC

As the wildfires raged in California, pictures surfaced across the internet of an orange haze hanging over San Francisco, giving the impression of an eerie, apocalyptic scene. The air quality deteriorated so much that it reached harmful levels up and down the West coast, with Portland registering the worst air in the world and Seattle coming in at number three, according to IQAir. By Tuesday, the smoke had made its way all the way to New York City.

Heart-wrenching photos have become the face of climate crisis whether it be of people surveying the remnants of a burned or flooded home or a koala being nursed back to health after getting caught in a blaze in Australia. Not surprisingly, Cleetus noted that devastating climate events have an "extraordinary mental health toll" on those impacted as well.

While short-term changes can be made to alleviate some of the risks from extreme weather events, experts say the only long-term solution is aggressive action at the national and global level to drastically reduce emissions.

"We used to talk about climate change as something that was going to happen far off in the future," said Keohane. "We've waited so long that it's now happening now. We're seeing the impacts of it: on our ecosystems; we're seeing them in terms of the threats to people's homes and livelihoods; we're seeing it in terms of human health."

A dehydrated and injured Koala receives treatment at the Port Macquarie Koala Hospital in Port Macquarie on November 2, 2019, after its rescue from a bushfire that has ravaged an area of over 2,000 hectares.

Saeed Khan | Getty Images

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Climate change is fueling wildfires in the West, ravaging local economies - CNBC

How the brains inner clock measures seconds – Newswise

BACKGROUND

Newswise Tracking the passage of time to the second is critical for motor control, learning and cognition, including the ability to anticipate future events. While the brain depends on its circadian clock to measure hours and days, the circadian clock does not have a second hand.

Instead the brain measures seconds through changing patterns of cellular activity. Much like a line of falling dominoes, each neuron activates the next, and time is marked by the neuron that is currently active. By analogy, if a sequence of falling dominoes takes 10 seconds from start to finish, one can deduce that 5 seconds has elapsed when the middle domino falls.

FINDINGS

UCLA neuroscientists introduced mice to two different scents. The mice learned that one odor predicted the arrival of a sweet liquid reward after three seconds, while the other odor predicted a reward after six seconds. The mice started licking the spout earlier in anticipation of the reward after they sniffed the first scent than when they smelled the second.

Recordings in the striatum and premotor cortex of the brain revealed that changing patterns of neural activity in both regions encoded timeconsistent with the notion that the brain has multiple clocks. But the pattern in the striatum was closer to the sequence of falling dominoesa pattern referred to as a neural sequencecompared to the patterns in a motor area that provides input to the striatum.

IMPLICATIONS

Timing is a fundamental part of human behavior, learning and thought. By revealing how and where the brain counts and represents seconds, the UCLA discovery will deepen scientists understanding of normal and abnormal brain function.

AUTHORS

Dean Buonomano, professor of neurobiology, and Sotiris Masmanidis, associate professor of neurobiology at the David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, are available for comment.

FUNDING

Grants from the National Institute of Neurological Diseases and Stroke, the National Science Foundation and Marion Bowen Neurobiology Postdoctoral Grant Program at UCLA supported the research.

PUBLICATION

The journal Neuron published the findings.

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How the brains inner clock measures seconds - Newswise

US on verge of dark new milestone: 200000 virus deaths – The Daily World

By Emma Court

Bloomberg News

The U.S. will top 200,000 deaths from the novel coronavirus in coming days, a devastating milestone that comes eight months after the pathogen was first confirmed on American soil.

The U.S., with 4% of the worlds population, accounts for about 21% of global coronavirus deaths. The disparity underscores Americas failure to contain a virus that blazed through populous states like Texas, Florida and California this summer despite predictions that warmer weather could bring a respite.

With a population of 330 million, the U.S. reached 100,000 COVID-19 deaths on May 27, four months after the first recorded case. It has taken another four months to near 200,000, a number roughly equal to the population of Yonkers, New York, or Huntsville, Alabama. Brazil ranks second in deaths, with more than 134,000 in a nation of 210 million.

As the presidential election on Nov. 3 nears, the U.S. virus response has become a key issue for voters, along with the economy, which the pandemic has scarred. President Donald Trump has said that the worst is now past, and claimed that a vaccine will be available within weeks. Democratic presidential nominee Joseph Biden has criticized Trump for his handling of the pandemic and tying scientists hunt for an inoculation to the election calendar.

Data show U.S. virus deaths have occurred disproportionately among people in at-risk categories, including individuals age 65 and older, people of color and those with other health conditions. Deaths have also been concentrated in certain parts of the country, with more than 70% reported in only 12 states, including New York, New Jersey, Texas, California and Florida, according to a Bloomberg analysis of Johns Hopkins University data.

Reaching 200,000 fatalities is a reflection of just how extensive the transmission of this virus has been in this country and how ineffective our public health approach has been to containing and stopping the spread, said Josh Michaud, associate director for global health policy at the Kaiser Family Foundation, an independent nonprofit.

Without enough testing and contact tracing and rigorous quarantine and isolation policies, were just kind of collectively limping along with this response, hoping itll get better in many cases when we havent done the work to make sure it will get better, he said.

It is also almost certainly a significant undercount of the true human toll of the pandemic, since not all virus cases are likely captured in official counts. U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention figures show that 201,917 to 262,877 more people have died in the U.S. since February than historical trends would predict, although not all are attributable to COVID-19.

The U.S. virus trajectory is at an inflection point. While new cases appear to be stabilizing nationally, declines in former hot spots are obscuring increases in Midwestern states like North Dakota, South Dakota, Wisconsin and Iowa. They number among 33 current hot-spot states, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation, which considers rising cases, test-positivity rates and new daily cases per million population in its analysis.

Experts warn that conditions are ripe for further spread, with schools, universities and more workplaces reopening and cooling temperatures likely to push more socializing indoors. One prediction, from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, expects there could be 415,090 COVID-19 deaths by year-end.

Health officials have also been closely monitoring the effects of last weeks Labor Day holiday, as long weekends have traditionally been a time of surging cases. But it still remains to be seen whether new cases increase, decrease or continue to plateau, they said.

I worry were at the calm before the storm, said Justin Lessler, an associate professor of epidemiology at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. Were about to have a really big question answered, and that is: Whats going to happen when the weather turns cold again, when we enter the fall and winter months?

We dont have a great sense of exactly how thats going to influence the transmission of the virus itself, but we do know for sure its going to change human behavior, Lessler said.

Complicating the picture is a decline in testing. The U.S. was performing about 5.6 million screenings a week in late July, but in the seven days through Sept. 12 did only about 4.6 million, according to data from the COVID Tracking Project. Unevenness in testing has dogged efforts to make sense of the viruss path.

Deaths, by contrast, are the most stable indicator we have in how things are going, but lag several weeks behind on-the-ground conditions, Lessler said.

A decline in weekly deaths from a high of about 8,000 in early August to 5,100 last week is a promising, if early, sign. Over time, the U.S. has made strides in protecting elderly people and treating COVID-19. Theres also been a shift toward younger individuals falling ill, and they are more likely to have mild cases, said the Kaiser Family Foundations Michaud. The trend is likely to continue as case numbers also decrease, he said.

But as long as the new coronavirus is spreading in the U.S., with no vaccine available, theres no guarantee it wont keep killing residents or filling up hospitals.

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US on verge of dark new milestone: 200000 virus deaths - The Daily World