Even by NFL standards, the New Orleans Saints rally from 16 points down to beat the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday was uncommon.
The Saints never had rallied from a 16-point deficit in the fourth quarter to win in their 56-year history. They were 0-208 in such previous scenarios.
Moreover, the Falcons win probability rate was 99.9 with 1:40 left. All Atlanta needed to do was convert a third-and-1 at the Saints 42-yard line, and they could have run out the clock.
Even after the Falcons botched the short-yardage attempt, the Saints still needed an improbable completion to pull off the comeback.
Lets break down one of the most unlikely wins in franchise history.
The Saints entered the fourth quarter having scored just 10 points and gained only eight first downs and 172 yards on their first nine drives.
Facing a 16-point deficit, the Saints abandoned their base offense and went to a two-minute attack, with Jameis Winston operating out of the shotgun. It worked. On their final three possessions, they scored 17 points and gained 213 yards and 10 first downs.
On those drives, Winston went 13 of 16 for 213 yards and two touchdowns. Two of his incompletions were spikes. His passer rating was a perfect 158.3. This, aftercompleting 10 of 18 passes for 56 yards in his first nine series for a passer rating of 61.3.
We kind of got into a little bit of rhythm there in terms of throwing the ball, Saints coach Dennis Allen said. I thought Jameis felt real comfortable in that (two-minute offense) situation."
Winstons longest completion in the first three quarters covered 11 yards. In the fourth quarter, he completed six passes of 20 or more yards, including gains of 40, 31 and 26 yards.
Most of the big plays came against soft zone coverage by the Falcons. They also dialed back their blitzes until midway through the Saints' second touchdown drive. Falcons defensive tackle Grady Jarrett said the Saints started to slide their pass protection to his side in the fourth quarter.
"When you get into those two-minute-type of deals, sometimes that can calm the (coverage) look down of the defense a little bit," Allen said. "I felt like that was the case there. Once Jameis got into a rhythm, he felt good about what he was doing.
Three of Winstons best passes came against man-to-man coverage. All three went to Michael Thomas, two for touchdowns and another for a 20-yard gain. All came in single coverage against Falcons shutdown corner AJ Terrell, who allowed just three touchdowns in coverage all of last season.
Early in the fourth quarter, producers showed a graphic of the fourth-quarter stats on the Fox Sports broadcast of the Saints-Falcons game.
It was a comparison chart of the two teams' fourth-quarter statistics from 2021. The Saints ranked in the top five of scoring, points allowed and point differential. The Falcons, meanwhile, were dead last in points scored and in the bottom five of the other categories.
The graphic proved to be prescient
The Falcons played well for three quarters but started to implode down the stretch, giving the Saints the lifeline needed to execute the rally.
The mistakes started late in the third quarter, when Atlanta quarterback Marcus Mariota lost a fumble inside the Saints 10-yard line with the Falcons leading 23-10. Mariota already had picked up the first down on the play but elected to put his head down and try to gain more yards instead of sliding. He paid the price. Afterward, he said he lost track of where he was and thought he needed more yards for the first down. That shouldnt happen to a veteran quarterback.
On the Falcons ensuing possession, tight end Parker Hesse false-started on a second-and-4 play at the Saints 4 to derail another touchdown opportunity. Instead of seven points, the Falcons settled for a field goal that kept them within striking distance at 26-10.
Later, Mariota fumbled a snap on a critical third-and-1 play near midfield in the final two minutes that cost the Falcons a chance to run out the clock. Mariota said afterward they had the perfect play call for the defensive alignment, but he got overanxious on the snap.
Thats 100 percent on me, Mariota said.
Then, Falcons head coach Arthur Smith elected to punt rather than go for it on fourth-and-1, despite analytics that predicted a much higher success rate by trying to convert the first down than punting.
Part of me wanted to go for it, Smith said. Hindsights 20-20. But at the time, my thought was to let the clock bleed down because they had no timeouts.
The Falcons gifted the Saints 10 critical yards on the punt when rookie long snapper Liam McCullough was called for holding on Taysom Hill, who had beaten him off the snap on a block attempt.
And finally, someone either veteran cornerback Casey Heyward or safety Richie Grant inexplicably blew the coverage on Jarvis Landrys 40-yard reception on the first play of the Saints game-winning drive. The long throw by Winston was a beauty, perfectly placed down the left sideline. But Heywards coverage was so bad Fox Sports analyst Jonathan Vilma said, I am not sure what Casey Heyward was doing.
The replay of Landry's 40-yard catch makes the play seem crazier than it was in live action.
The play call was a simple three vertical route concept, with Landry, Thomas and Chris Olave sprinting downfield on go routes. They max-protected against the Falcons' four-man pass rush by having running back Mark Ingram and tight end Juwan Johnson help block. This allowed Winston time to unload his deep ball down the left sideline against the Falcons' cover-2 defense. Winston's pass traveled 53.8 yards in the air, making it the longest completion by air yards in Week 1, according to Next Gen Stats.
Landrys leaping reception, which Allen later called "a hell of a play," had a 19.6% completion probability rate, the lowest of any completion in the NFL on Sunday, per Next Gen.
Its difficult to tell from the replay angles, but it appeared that Landry was down inbounds after being contacted by a defender as he toppled to the turf. But field judge John Jenkins ruled that Landry was untouched and carried out of bounds by his own momentum. Once Jenkins whistled the play dead, it was unreviewable.
Allen said he didn't see Jenkins' signal because the official was behind him on the sideline when he signaled. Allen, among others, instructed Winston to "clock" the ball during the scramble to get aligned for the next play.
Unaware that the clock wasn't running, Winston unwittingly spiked the ball and was whistled for intentional grounding, resulting in a loss of down and 10 yards. One play later, Winston inexplicably spiked the ball again, leaving 23 seconds on the clock and time for Atlanta to get in position for a last-ditch field goal attempt.
On Monday, Allen was critical of the team's clock management, saying it "wasn't as well as it needed to be."
"We've got to do a better job as coaching staff in that situation," Allen said. It starts with me and the communication into the quarterback, the communication between me and (offensive coordinator) Pete (Carmichael). Weve got to do a better job there and we will.
Hill said Monday he for sure would have blocked Bradley Pinions punt in the final minute had McCullough not tackled him during his rush. Hill beat McCullough at the line of scrimmage and had a free lane to the punter. He credited McCullough for making a smart play to take the holding call.
I thought Taysom did a great job of attacking the protection and getting on an edge and forcing them to have to hold him, Allen said. When youve got such little time and yards are precious at that time, getting that 10-yard penalty was a big deal.
It's tempting to play the "What If?" game here, giventhe circumstances and history of the Saints-Falcons rivalry.
Had Hill not been held and managed to block Pinion's punt in that situation to produce or set up the game-winning score, the play would have taken its place alongside Steve Gleasons iconic block in 2006 and Michael Mautis block in 2015 in Saints-Falcons lore.