Category Archives: Anatomy

Anatomy

Anatomy of a Goal: Breaking down the goal that finished off the Union last week – Brotherly Game

Entering the 90, the Philadelphia Union were just down by a goal in Frisco. Jim Curtin made a change in the lineup, bringing Jack Eliott on for Matt Real. You may be asking yourself why I bring this up. Its a simple one, the formation changed to what appears to be a 3-5-2.

After the sub, the U are on their side of the field and throw the ball back into play. From there the ball gets passed back to goalkeeper, Andre Blake to reset the play. Black sends the ball upfield, where Dallas gets on the end of it.

Dallas Paxton Pomykal is on the end of a short pass and starts to go full steam ahead towards the Unions goal.

As you watch the replay of the goal, you can see just how open Pomykal was for Dallas. You can see Alejandro Bedoya and Mark McKenzie are both way off of Pomykal. Which Philadelphia Union color analyst perfectly calls out how the fact the Union look tired.

As he gets closer to the 18 yard box, the Unions defense continues to back pedal. Pomykal enters the penalty area drops the pass off to a teammate, and continues to run to the other edge of the box.

As he runs behind his teammate, Pomykal gets feed the ball again. Jakob Glesnes misreads the play thinking it was a pass to Dallas Zdenek Ondrasek.

However, Pomykal keeps the ball and dribbles around Ondrasek, where he also beats Ray Gaddis and finds an opening for a cross-body shot. Putting the ball to the left side of an outstretching Blake. Where the ball just touches the goalpost and goes into the upper corner of the net. Handing the boys in blue their first loss of the season. Dallas wins the game 2-0.

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Anatomy of a Goal: Breaking down the goal that finished off the Union last week - Brotherly Game

Anatomy

The Grenfell Tower Inquiry: Anatomy of a cover-upPart 1 – World Socialist Web Site

The Grenfell Tower Inquiry: Anatomy of a cover-upPart 1 By Alice Summers 3 March 2020

The following is the first part of a three-part series on the Phase 1 report of the Grenfell Tower Inquiry. Phase 1 concluded last December. Phase two of the Inquiry opened this week, with witnesses from the corporations and organisations whose actions caused the deaths of 72 people granted immunityby the Attorney General from any prosecution that might result from their testimony.

The report from Phase 1 of the Grenfell Inquiry, limited to considering the events on the night of the fire, is a whitewash designed to obscure the real causes of the fire and direct blame towards the London Fire Brigade (LFB).

While the 900-page report is valuable in its examination of the types of dangerous construction materials used at Grenfell Tower and their role in promoting the spread of fire, it largely ignores or minimises the criminality of cost-cutting companies and a complicit Conservative Party-run local authority. Through their decisions to use these materials, they bear direct responsibility for the devastating fire.

A 40-page section at the end of the report is dedicated to remembering the 72 people who died at Grenfell Tower. Based on the testimony given by friends and family members, it is a moving commemoration of their lives.

The report provides a forensic, minute-by-minute presentation of the June 14, 2017 catastrophe. It is harrowing in its description of the horrors faced by residents and firefighters as they tried to escape or tackle the fire.

The report makes use of witness testimony from survivors, firefighters and Control Room Operators (CROs) to form its account, as well as transcripts from 999 calls and phone calls between trapped residents and their loved ones outside the tower.

Survivors and the relatives of those who lost their lives showed enormous bravery in reliving their experiences.

From early into the night of the fire, Grenfell Towers inhabitants were already encountering terrible conditions, with the fire rapidly spreading up the building, and flats, lobbies and stairwells filling up with toxic smoke.

Nicholas Burton, who lived with his wife Maria Del Pilar Burton in Flat 165 on floor 19, was awoken by banging on his door shortly after 1:30a.m. He was confronted by a wall of acrid, black smoke as he opened his front door, similar to when a tyre is on fire. Maria sadly passed away in hospital as a result of the fire.

Other survivors of the fire describe their efforts to escape their homes, only to be confronted with thick, black smoke, making breathing almost impossible and reducing visibility. Many were forced to return to their flats.

Samuel Daniels describes the agonising experience of being forced to leave behind his elderly and frail father, Joseph--who died in the doorway of his home in Grenfell Tower--as he attempted to escape their 16th floor flat. As Samuel opened his front door, thick black smoke poured into the flat [making] him feel lightheaded and caus[ing] his knees to buckle. He called to Joseph to leave the flat with him, but his father, who suffered from dementia, was stubborn and disorientated and was unable to follow his instructions. Firefighters, informed by Samuel of his fathers presence and illness, tried to reach Joseph but failed.

Transcripts from 999 calls show the impossible situation faced by trapped inhabitants with disabilities, who could not evacuate on their own and who firefighters struggled but were unable to reach.

The report describes the ordeal of residents who attempted to leave the building, before succumbing to the terrible conditions in the stairwells and lobbies. Lina Hamide, who had lived in Flat 74 on floor 10, tried to flee sometime after 4:00 a.m. Struggling to breathe, she made it down two flights of stairs before collapsing. She survived after being carried out of the tower by firefighters.

Yehualashet Enyew lived on floor 18 and made an escape attempt with his neighbor, Paulos Tekle, after 3:00 a.m. Yehualashet tried to help Mr Tekles five-year old son, Isaac Paulos, holding his hand and helping him down the stairs with firefighters leading the way. With smoke thickening, Yehualashet realised halfway down the stairs that he had lost Isaac and began to lose consciousness. Isaac died and Yehualashet felt that he could not have survived without the help of a firefighter.

The bodies of many residents were later found on the stairs.

The report quotes Saber Nedas last heartbreaking voicemail left for his brother-in-law, Habibrahman Abdulrahman, in which he said, Goodbye. We are now leaving this world, goodbye. I hope I havent disappointed you. Goodbye to all.

Saber Nedas body was later found in the childrens playground on the west side of the tower. He had jumped after leaving the voicemail message.

In the last telephone call between Mariem Elgwahry and her brother Ahmed Elgwahry, who was standing outside at the bottom of the tower, Ahmed repeatedly tried to encourage his sister to leave. Mariem felt unable to do so: No. I cant get out. The landing is filled with thick black smoke and I cant see, she said. Ahmed believed that his sister had not wanted to leave because it would have meant leaving Eslah Elgwahry, their disabled mother, behind.

According to thermal imaging cameras used by firefighters on the night, temperatures in Grenfell Tower reached 1,080C and photos included in the report show lobbies and hallways filled with dense smoke.

Firefighters attempting to tackle the fire did so under almost impossible conditions, with many testifying that they had never witnessed a fire of this scope before. Watch Manager (WM) Michael Dowden, in charge of the LFBs response for the first hour of the fire, says in his oral evidence:

There were probably moments where I did feel helpless Its a very, very difficult place to be as an incident commander when its justits just relentless. We can usually try and control and get a grip on the dynamic stage of an incident, but this was like nothing else I had ever experienced before. The ferocity, the way that fire was developing, it was just relentless.

Grenfell Tower fire Inquiry chairman Sir Moore-Bick noted the bravery shown by firefighters on the night, stating that they displayed enormous courage and selfless devotion to duty. In many cases they pushed themselves to, and even beyond, the limits of endurance in their attempt to fight the fire and to rescue those who remained in the building.

The toll on CROs, who responded to 999 calls, is noted in the report, and they are praised as having borne the personal consequences of that night with remarkable fortitude. Moore-Bick observes that the psychological cost to them must not be underestimated.

Yet both CROs and firefighters receive harsh criticism in the report, often targeted at individual officers, including the relatively junior-ranking WM Dowden, who Moore-Bick says failed in their professional duty. The Fire Brigades Union (FBU), in its response to the report, points out this personalised micro-criticism of individual control staff detracts from the real failures. Control staff were under-resourced, not trained for such a fire and faced huge uncertainties on the night.

Sener Macit, who lived in Flat 133 on floor 16, describes in his witness testimony the descent from his flat to escape the tower and the effect that the smoke-logged stairwells were having on both residents and firefighters.

As he and his wife went down the stairs, with the smoke so thick that they coughed constantly and struggled to breathe even with damp cloths over their faces, they came across the bodies of other people on the stairs. Macit describes encountering two firefighters around floor 10, who despite his calls for help were unable to assist him, as one looked like he was about to pass out.

According to the report, many of the firefighters entering the tower to rescue residents were working far beyond the normal limits of their breathing apparatus (BA), with many wearers being deployed beyond the number of times that standard procedures allow. Many senior commanders expressed concern about how quickly their BA resources were being used up.

Firefighters deployed inside the tower also had significant difficulties coordinating their efforts with the command bridgehead, as radio equipment often could not establish a connection. By around 5:30 a.m., firefighters found smoke to be so dense that their radios were not working beyond floor five.

Tackling the fire from within the tower also proved difficult due to the ferocity of its spread, inadequate equipment and low water pressure. Firefighter Alan Sime said that by around 3:00 a.m., the efforts of he and his colleague, Ernest Okoh, were making little impact on the flames on floor five. They were having to fight the fire lying on their stomachs; visibility was down to one foot and they could not see their hands.

Two other firefighters, Oliver Desforges and Richard Mitchell, who had been deployed to the tower around 4:00 a.m., said that low water pressure had prevented them from effectively containing or extinguishing fires in the flats on floor four, all of which were completely alight.

Firefighters struggled to use hoses or wet risers due to insufficient water supplies, and by around 5:50 a.m., Assistant Commissioner (AC) Andrew Roe had to make the decision to stop deploying firefighting crews above floor 12. By around 6:30 a.m., fire crews found there was no water above floor six due to a defective rising water main.

The fire brigade was unable to take control of firefighting lifts in Grenfell Tower, a problem which Moore-Bick notes is relevant to the circumstances in which some residents came to lose their lives. A 42-metre high aerial fire-fighting platform had to be brought in from the neighbouring county of Surrey, as the tallest appliances owned by the LFBwhich covers a population of nearly 9 million over an area 1,500 km2only reached 32 metres in height.

To be continued

The author also recommends:

Grenfell Inquiry witnesses granted immunity from prosecution resulting from oral evidence [2 March 2020]

Two years since the Grenfell inferno: The case for socialism [14 June 2019]

The political implications of the Grenfell Tower fire [27 June 2017]

The political implications of the Grenfell Tower fire [23 August 2017]

2019 has been a year of mass social upheaval. We need you to help the WSWS and ICFI make 2020 the year of international socialist revival. We must expand our work and our influence in the international working class. If you agree, donate today. Thank you.

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The Grenfell Tower Inquiry: Anatomy of a cover-upPart 1 - World Socialist Web Site

Anatomy

Former ‘Grey’s Anatomy’ Star Kate Walsh Reunites With a ‘Private Practice’ Co-Star — What Is the Cast up to in 2020? – Showbiz Cheat Sheet

Before there was Station 19, there was another Greys Anatomy spinoff: Private Practice. The series followed Kate Walshs Addison Montgomery as she left Seattle for sunny Los Angeles, joining the practice of a a close friend. Its been over seven years since the series came to an end. Heres a look at what the cast is busy with in 2020.

Before Greys and Private Practice, Walsh was a relatively unknown actress. In the years since, she landed two more notable roles, in the short-lived sitcom Bad Judge and the teen drama 13 Reasons Why. Walsh recurred in season 1 of The Umbrella Academy and is set to appear in the upcoming series Emily in Paris.

In March 2020, Walsh met up with her former co-star Amy Brenneman, who portrayed psychiatrist Turner for all six seasons. Unlike Walsh, Brenneman had a very established career before Private Practice. She was nominated for multiple Emmys for her roles on NYPD Blue and Judging Amy.

Though she has done a number of movies of the years, Brenneman is still best known for her TV work. She starred in the supernatural series The Leftovers from 2014-2017. She also has a lead role in the upcoming Hulu thriller series The Old Man.

Paul Adelstein (far right) portrayed pediatrician Cooper Freedman in Private Practice for all six seasons. Before the series, he was best known for his lead role in the drama Prison Break. Since the show ended, Adelstein has had prominent roles in Scandal and Girlfriends Guide to Divorce. He currently recurs on Chicago P.D.

KaDee Strickland portrayed Charlotte King, the chief of staff at a hospital close to the practice whose role changes throughout the series run. This is still considered her most notable role to date. In addition to scattered film roles, Strickland was a part of the main cast of Secrets and Lies Season 1 and the two-season Hulu drama Shut Eye.

Taye Diggs portrayed internal medicine specialist Sam Bennett for all six seasons of Private Practice. Diggs has a storied career, having gotten his start on Broadway. He has starred in a number of films such as How Stella Got Her Groove Back and Chicago. Diggs has also maintained a strong presence on TV over the years, in shows like Murder in the First, Empire, and All American.

Tim Daly portrayed alternative medicine physician Pete Wilder in the first five seasons of Private Practice. Prior to landing the role, he starred in short-lived series such as The Fugitive and The Nine. He also earned an Emmy nomination for his recurring role in The Sopranos. Daly starred in Madam Secretary throughout its own six-season run.

Caterina Scorsone joined the cast of Private Practice as neurosurgeon Amelia Shepherd in season 3, remaining on the show until its end. Prior to joining, she starred in Canadian series Power Play and Missing. After Private Practice ended, Scorsone came over to Greys Anatomy, where she remains a part of the main cast today.

Audra McDonald portrayed fertility specialist Naomi Bennett on Private Practice for the first four seasons. She turned as a guest in season 6. McDonald, like her on-screen ex-husband, comes from a musical theater background, and some may recognize her from her role as Grace in the 1999 film version of Annie. McDonald currently stars in the legal drama The Good Fight.

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Former 'Grey's Anatomy' Star Kate Walsh Reunites With a 'Private Practice' Co-Star -- What Is the Cast up to in 2020? - Showbiz Cheat Sheet

Anatomy

Popular Anatomy Books – Goodreads

In 1994 Stephen Porges, who was a researcher at the University of Maryland at the time we started our investigation of HRV, and who is now at the University of North Carolina, introduced the Polyvagal theory, which built on Darwins observations and added another 140 years of scientific discoveries to those early insights. (Polyvagal refers to the many branches of the vagus nerve Darwins pneumogastric nerve which connects numerous organs, including the brain, lungs, heart, stomach, and intestines.) The Polyvagal Theory provided us with a more sophisticated understanding of the biology of safety and danger, one based on the subtle interplay between the visceral experiences of our own bodies and the voices and faces of the people around us. It explained why a kind face or a soothing tone of voice can dramatically alter the way we feel. It clarified why knowing that we are seen and heard by the important people in our lives can make us feel calm and safe, and why being ignored or dismissed can precipitate rage reactions or mental collapse. It helped us understand why focused attunement with another person can shift us out of disorganized and fearful states.In short, Porgess theory made us look beyond the effects of fight or flight and put social relationships front and center in our understanding of trauma. It also suggested new approaches to healing that focus on strengthening the bodys system for regulating arousal. Bessel Van Der Kolk

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Popular Anatomy Books - Goodreads

Anatomy

Authers Notes on Anatomy of the Bear: TOPLive Transcript – Bloomberg

Below is a complete transcript of entries from the live blog event Authers Notes on Anatomy of the Bear in the order they were originally posted.

03/03 10:35 ET

Welcome to Authers Notes, our Bloomberg book club. Today, senior markets editor John Authers will lead a conversation about Russell Napiers cult classic from 2005, Anatomy of the Bear: Lessons From Wall Streets Four Great Bottoms.

This event will start on Tuesday, March 3, at 11:30 a.m. New York time. Join us then as John discusses the book with his guests.

Andrew Dunn TOPLive Editor

03/03 11:31 ET

Professor Napier, who joins us today, is author of The Solid Ground investment report for institutional investors and co-founder of the investment research portal ERIC -- a business he now co-owns with D.C. Thomson.

Russell has worked in the investment business for 30 years and has been advising global institutional investors on asset allocation since 1995. Russell is founder and course director of The Practical History of Financial Markets course, part of the Edinburgh Business School MBA.

A director of the Mid Wynd International Investment Trust, he is a member of the Investment advisory committees of Cerno Capital and Kennox Asset Management.

Andrew Dunn TOPLive Editor

03/03 11:32 ET

In 2014, Russell founded the charitable venture The Library of Mistakes a business and financial history library in Edinburgh that now has branches in India and Switzerland.

Russell has degrees in law from Queens University Belfast and Magdalene College Cambridge. He is a Fellow of the CFA Society of the U.K. and is an honorary professor at both Heriot-Watt University and the University of Stirling. When not engaged in the activities above Russell reads too much financial history, is a keen fly fisherman and grows his own organic vegetables.

Andrew Dunn TOPLive Editor

03/03 11:33 ET

Napiers Anatomy of the Bear, for those who have not had the chance to read it during the excitement of the last few weeks, is a cult classic work of investment history. He spent two years in the archives to see exactly what people were talking about, and what news they were reading, in the weeks around the bottom of the four great bear markets of the 20th century -- in 1921, 1932, 1949 and 1982.

His conclusions were that deflationary pressure helps to force bear markets, in combination with overvaluation of stocks. The bottom comes not in catharsis and revulsion, but rather when all hope has been lost and apathy reigns.

John Authers Senior Editor

03/03 11:33 ET

The first edition of Anatomy of the Bear accurately told readers not to trust the rally that followed the bursting of the dot com bubble, and warned that another sell-off lay ahead. That was proved right. Subsequent editions said that March 2009 was not a bear market bottom to match the four covered in the market, and many now argue that he has been proved wrong on this.

I saw the book on the desks of many a fund manager during the years before and after the crisis. With markets now in their scariest state since 2008-09, it is a great time to return to it.

John Authers Senior Editor

03/03 11:35 ET

Greetings, Russell. The first question we were planning to ask was a simple one, from Cross-Asset reporter Sara Ponczek:

Where do we stand now? Is there a period thats most comparable to our current situation?

After the events of the last few hours, I suppose by that we now mean: Is there a period remotely comparable to one where the Federal Reserve has made an emergency cut of 50bps, bringing 10-year Treasury yields to an all-time low, barely two weeks after the S&P 500 hit an all-time high?

Lets start by trying to locate exactly where we are, and what long-term effect the Feds action might have.

John Authers Senior Editor

03/03 11:35 ET

There is one dramatic period that looks like this -- October 1929. Clearly, the decline in the stock market on that famous day was much bigger than what we have seen in the past 10 days, but the Fed cut the day of the big deadline.

Despite that very large decline in the equity bear market, they were still at very high PE ratios when that cut came.

Russell Napier Author, Anatomy of the Bear

03/03 11:38 ET

That raises one big question: The Fed has been greatly criticized for its policies between 1929 and 1932, and it started with rates considerably higher.

What should the Fed do now to avoid a similar outcome? (For asset prices, or for the economy).

John Authers Senior Editor

03/03 11:44 ET

The book suggests that it is deflation that destroys equity valuations as it pushes cash flows and asset prices lower and, thus the risk of equity eradication rises.

Bernanke famously gave a concise speech on November 2002 on what the Fed could and should do. They have not been through all that playbook yet, but essentially they need to boost the growth in broad money -- and this is something that have failed to do with their extraordinary monetary policy.

Things are much worse elsewhere, especially in Europe, where they have got to the situation that Bernanke warned a central bank should never get to: zero interest rates and falling inflation or deflation.

I would recommend freeing up banks to buy a lot more securities and thus create money this way. However, outside the U.S. they will probably be more tempted by helicopter money.

Russell Napier Author, Anatomy of the Bear

03/03 11:46 ET

Its still only a couple of weeks since the S&P 500 hit a new high, and that leads to this question from old friend Dec Mullarkey of SLC Management in Boston:

Lofty valuations alone have generally been a poor market timing indicator. It seems you also need investor euphoria to really drive a bull market.

During the last twelve S&P 500 bull markets, returns leading up to the peak were, on average, 58% over the prior two years and 25% over the prior year. Suggesting bull markets end with a bang and not a whimper.

Do most investors get captured by momentum that in turn fuels the overshoot and downturn? Or is this some aggressive price discovery where investors keep pushing until they eventually find the break point?

Or, put briefly, was the buying we saw in February the final melt-up to a bear market top?

John Authers Senior Editor

03/03 11:48 ET

There are two ways valuations can fall -- driven by inflation and higher interest rates or driven by deflation.

The book points out that some of our bear markets last a very long time indeed, such as 1901-1921 and 1968-1982. These market valuations declined primarily because inflation and interest rates went higher and it was difficult to stop that, even over many cycles.

However, all ended with the risk of deflation as the central bankers got over-aggressive against inflation. The key outlier was 1929, when we went straight to deflation without first going through a long bear market associated with the battle against inflation.

Today, it is very clearly a deflationary shock we face, so valuations can fall very quickly. This happened in 1921, 1932, 1949 and even in 1982 given the U.S. banks were in crisis.

Deflation brings valuations down, full stop, but to stress: Things are much much worse in Europe where valuations are a lot lower.

Russell Napier Author, Anatomy of the Bear

03/03 11:51 ET

Following on the theme of cognitive dissonance, as bond yields hit record lows just after stocks hit record highs, we have this question from Tamas Vojnits, former chief economist of OTP Bank in Budapest:

I dont think, and indeed portfolio theory suggests, that one can evaluate asset class valuations separately, reduced to only one asset class.

For a long time now, rising equity values have been supported by declining and very low long term yields (negative real yields).

Is it possible that we have two equilibriums, one described by ultra low risk free rates coupled with high equity valuations and another with normal interest rates coupled with much lower equity market valuations?

Fundamentals aside, is it possible that we cannot get from one (the first) equilibrium to the other (the latter) without a major equity market disruption and therefore we are stuck at a sub-optimal equilibrium?

John Authers Senior Editor

03/03 11:54 ET

Can we reconcile record low interest rates with economic growth but more importantly stable household and corporate cash flows and asset prices?

Clearly, this is something the equity market has reconciled itself to and with some justification based on the past 10 years of lower long-term bond yields but decent growth and corporate earnings.

However, it is highly unlikely that the two can ultimately be reconciled, even in an age when the long-term bond yield is depressed by central bank actions. The book covers how technological innovation often creates the illusion that the new economy can be a combination of high growth and record low interest rates. It has never lasted, and all the major high valuations coincided with such a belief.

As discussed, the money and credit analysis this time suggests that the dissonance is believing that bond yields go ever lower but growth does not. So for me its a deflation shock with valuations falling quickly. However, history shows the dissonance can be that the technology is not as deflationary as the market thinks, and inflation -- often assisted by monetary policy -- erupts.

In that case valuations for equities fall much more slowly.

Russell Napier Author, Anatomy of the Bear

03/03 11:54 ET

Im sure everyone is aware by now, but just to reiterate, the Federal Reserve just cut rates by 50bps this morning in an emergency move.

It was the first of the sort since 2008. Ten-year Treasury yields are now trading at 1.03% with the two-year yielding 74bps.

Pretty amazing.

Sarah Ponczek Cross Asset Reporter

03/03 11:55 ET

Even if this is a bear market rally, cant investors enjoy and profit off of it?

Whats the best way to go about that, while still being prepared for pressure that will push equities to levels associated with the bear market bottoms of 1921, 1932, 1949 and 1982, as you see it?

Sarah Ponczek Cross Asset Reporter

03/03 12:01 ET

I was lucky enough to call the bottom of the equity market in 1Q 2009, even though I still do not think that was a great bear market bottom -- valuations were too high. What I looked at on that occasion was: commodity prices, TIPS-indicated inflation, the copper price and corporate bond spreads. If the Fed is successfully staving off deflation, we would expect that to be reflected in these indicators. They were lead indicators at our great bottoms and also in 2009.

So that might be the basis for trading equities but to stress: The key deflationary forces in the world are far from U.S. Shores, and the ability of the Fed to pivot the world on one interest rate move has to be in doubt.

I noted that after the emergency rate cut, copper is still down. Watch those indicators, but fundamentally equity valuations are high and this prospect is for deflation -- a dangerous time to trade equities for a bull market rally.

Russell Napier Author, Anatomy of the Bear

03/03 12:02 ET

(Incidentally Sarah, pretty amazing is how Lady Diana responded when asked what her first impressions of Prince Charles were, at the press conference where they announced their engagement.

So much going on this morning and I suddenly get an echo of a news event from my British youth....)

John Authers Senior Editor

03/03 12:02 ET

Russell mentioned that copper is still down today, even after that emergency rate cut. And not only is that true, copper prices have been falling precipitously ever since mid-2018. See for yourself:

Sarah Ponczek Cross Asset Reporter

03/03 12:03 ET

Lets move to the question of valuation. Reader Gordon Graham raises an issue that has been very controversial in recent years:

What does Russell think of the cyclically adjusted price earnings multiple (CAPE)?

For context, Yale Universitys Robert Shiller famously used the CAPE in 1999 to predict the bursting of the dot-com bubble, while Russells first edition of Anatomy used CAPE valuations to show that another big fall in share prices lay ahead.

In the years since, CAPE has continued to show that the market is too expensive, yet the S&P 500 keeps rising. Is there something wrong with the indicator (which compares prices to a 10-year average of real earnings), or with Tobins q, which compares prices to the replacement value of a companys assets?

Graham handily provides this link to a page on Andrew Smitherss website, which shows the latest measures of CAPE and q.

John Authers Senior Editor

03/03 12:07 ET

There is nothing wrong with CAPE and q as indicators of value, but we have lived in really exceptional times.

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Authers Notes on Anatomy of the Bear: TOPLive Transcript - Bloomberg

Anatomy

Drawing Anatomy for Beginners: Top 5 Dos and Donts

When it comes to learning how to draw people successfully, knowing human anatomy is key. Jeff Mellem, artist and author ofHow to Draw People, shares the top dos and donts of drawing anatomy for beginners so you can start drawing more realistic figures in no time. Enjoy!

Figure Drawings excerpted from How to Draw People by Jeff Mellem

Drawing anatomy for beginners can feel overwhelming at first because there are so many muscles on the body. When youre looking at a model and you see a lot on bumps, you might be tempted to pull out an anatomy book to decipher whats going on under the skin.

An anatomy book is great at telling you what youre looking at but its not very helpful at telling you the three-dimensional shape of the muscles.

When you first approach figure drawing, you need to start out with establishing the basic volumes of the figure using spheres, boxes and cylinders. By simply beginning with these basic shapes and then building up the complexity as you go along, you will be able to make your drawing maintain its sense of dimension.

If you copy contours before you build in the structure, I guarantee youll end up with a flat-looking drawing.

The drawing on the left overemphasizes the models muscles and it looks more like an anatomy book than a figure. An artist needs to think about the 3D shape of the muscles to give the figure an illusion of volume.

The Takeaway:

Use an anatomy book to understand whats below the surface but think about each muscle in 3D. Dont draw the muscles as a series of lines. Draw them as sculpted spheres, boxes and cylinders.

With that being said, you dont always have to actually draw spheres and boxes on the page. If you look at an artist likeHarry Carmeanyou can see that while he sometimes is only drawing counters of the body, he is clearly thinking about the 3D qualities of what hes drawing.

When artists first start paying closer attention to adding anatomy to their drawings they often have a tendency to overemphasize the anatomy. The figures often end up looking like they have no skin. The muscles are there to add more realism to the figure, but they shouldnt be the focal point of the drawing.

The focus of a drawing should convey an action, an emotion or the subjects personality. You dont want a viewer to stop and look at the parts of your drawing; you want the viewer to see the whole figure and be interested in what that figure is doing and who he or she is.

In order to maintain focus on the action its always a great practice to start all your drawings with a gesture drawing. A gesture drawing serves as a blueprint for the action. Everything that comes after is to help clarify and enhance that action.

The muscles should be drawn to amplify the movement of the figure and shouldnt draw attention to themselves. A good example of this is comic book characters that have exaggerated anatomy to convey their strength.

A successful comic book page isnt about the characters muscles but about how that characters power is being expressed in the story. The volumes of the muscles are designed to lead the eye through the body toward a point of action. The reader isnt stopping to look at the characters well-developed musculature.

Notice how the muscles in the figure on the right reflect the gesture drawing on the left. The muscles are used to reinforce the figures action, they arent the focus of the drawing.

The Takeaway:

Anatomy is there to add realism but its less important then conveying the action and attitude of the whole figure.

When artists start using basic shapes to develop figures they often start to fall into a pattern of using the same shapes to build every figure.

When youre building your figure you have to look and adapt your shapes to the specific subject youre drawing. Youre not going to use the same shapes for a bodybuilder that you would a sumo wrestler or a long distance runner.

You have to look at your subject and figure out what simple shapes are the best tools to develop your figure. For example, some people have very squarish heads which needs to be constructed from box shapes while others have a more roundish appearance that should be built from spheres.

These two figures are in the same pose but are built from different shapes. The figure on the right is built from more block shapes and it gives the figure a sturdier feeling.

The Takeaway:

Dont approach every figure with a formula. Instead, observe and adapt your shapes to fit your subject.

If you only copy what you see you will never create what you imagine. I never saw the point of replicating a photo in a drawing beyond being an exercise to build observational skills. Why duplicate what already exists when you can interpret and adapt as you see fit?

Observational skills are important but not just for copying what you see. Use your observational skills to analyze your subjects unique shapes so you can reinterpret it on the page. That means you arent copying counters of the body. Instead youre recreating a figure on the page from the ground up.

You start by capturing its movement in a gesture, rebuild the figure three-dimensionally using basic spheres, boxes and cylinders, and then sculpt those simple shapes into anatomical forms. This is a very different process than just replicating what you see.

Youre combining what you see with your 3D knowledge of anatomy to recreate the figure on the page. This will not only help you to develop drawing that have a sense of mass but also will allow you to adapt and modify the figure to create something new.

This is just a fun drawing to help illustrate that you need to understand the 3D shapes of a figure and then you can reassemble them on the page. This is a different way of thinking than just copying the contours you see.

The Takeaway:

The job of an artist isnt to replicate what he or she sees. It is to interpret what he or she understands. When drawing a figure, you bring in your knowledge of anatomy and volume to draw a figure rather than just copying contours and values.

To draw a realistic figure, you need to pay attention to accurately capture the figures proportions and anatomy. This comes from both studying anatomy and having good observational skills.

Anatomy and proportion are important. But alone, they dont make for an interesting drawing. A figure drawing that feels like it has personality or appears dynamic is going to be more interesting than one that it technically correct.

Let the anatomy and proportion take a supporting role to the underlying gesture drawing. Every step of your drawing should be to create a unified figure that has energy and attitude even if that means altering the figures proportions or anatomy to better emphasize that action.

This figure has exaggerated proportions similar to those used in fashion drawing. It doesnt matter that its not correctly proportioned if the decision to exaggerate is purposeful. You can find many examples of artists who distort and exaggerate proportions for stylistic reasons.

The Takeaway:

Drawing great anatomy helps artists create realistic-looking figures that appear to have actual mass and volume. However, the anatomy needs to add to the sense of movement of the figure and not distract from it. You must have the skill to be able to draw the muscles in 3D in order to modify and adapt the shapes and emphasize the movement and personality of your subjects.

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Drawing Anatomy for Beginners: Top 5 Dos and Donts

Anatomy

Professor pursues snake anatomy research – The Brown and White

David Cundall was interested in snakes at an early age. He started to observe snakes in Montreal while he was studying at the University of Arkansas. Now a professor in Lehighs biological science department, Cundall specializes in the evolution of the feeding apparatus of snakes.

I became interested in seeing how snakes, on the edges of their ranges, differed from the rest of their species in that area, Cundall said.

For his graduate project, Cundall studied snake chromosomes to see if there were any genetic differences between them.

He also studied the ecology of soft-shell turtles, but didnt have enough funding to do this research. Cundall said his advisor and professor told him to find something that was cheaper to study.

Cundall began to look at anatomy for his Ph.D., and then he started to study the anatomy of snakes.

When I got the job at Lehigh, I wanted to see how snake heads actually worked, Cundall said. I wanted to see how the muscles work and contract in a snake when they are eating.

Alexander Megerle, 20, is one of the two students who work with Cundall on his research.

Megerle said he got in touch with Cundall his sophomore year because he wanted to get involved with biology research, and he found Cundall through Lehighs biology faculty page.

He took interest in Cundalls research because he was one of the only professors who studies the anatomy of animals. He started working with Cundall in fall 2018.

I never really had a special interest in snakes before then, Megerle said. That happened to be the line of research that I found myself most interested in, and has gradually become more interesting for me.

Cundall said snakes are an underrepresented form of research in the biological science department due to the fact that they have little relation to how humans work.

David Cundall, a Lehigh professor and researcher, observes one of his snakes in his research center on Feb. 21, 2020. Dr. Cundall is most known for his research regarding the evolution of the feeding apparatus of snakes. (Jake Martin/B&W Staff)

The only thing in humans that comes close to anything snakes can do is the stretching of tissue, Cundall said. Their tissues stretch when they eat large organisms, which is similar to how the tissues stretch when giving birth.

Megerle said animals have many specialities that humans dont fully understand. He said nowadays, design problems are being solved by looking through nature, seeing how things are done and how things are designed to look.

Understanding animals is key to understanding how to solve problems for humans, Megerle said.

The solutions that you see for problems in nature are much more elegant than the ones that humanity has come up with, he said.

Travell Gardner, 23, is deciding what research she wants to do for next year.

She said she is interested in a variety of fields as a biology major.

Although I am not currently sure what I want to research, I have always been interested in the study of reptiles, Gardner said.

She said wants to understand the anatomy of how snakes function and eat.

Cundall and Megerle are currently working on a project to discover what happens in the skin muscles of corn snakes when they climb.

Corn snakes can climb trees in ways that a lot of other snakes cant do and have these folds along the underside of their skin that helps them get stuff, Megerle said. No one has been doing research on how they are able to do this and what sort of muscle contraction allows them to do that.

They will be traveling to Cincinnati over spring break to do further research on this topic.

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Professor pursues snake anatomy research - The Brown and White

Anatomy

The Grenfell Tower Inquiry: Anatomy of a cover-upPart 3 – World Socialist Web Site

The Grenfell Tower Inquiry: Anatomy of a cover-upPart 3 By Alice Summers 5 March 2020

The following is the final part of a three-part series on the Phase 1 report of the Grenfell Tower Inquiry. Part one can be found here and part two here.

Phase 1 concluded last December. Phase two of the Inquiry opened this week, with witnesses from the corporations and organisations whose actions caused the deaths of 72 people granted immunity by the attorney general from any prosecution that might result from their testimony.

In their testimony to the Inquiry, expert witnesses, Dr. Barbara Lane, Professor Luke Bisby and Professor Jos Luis Torero, examined the role played by materials used during the refurbishment in the spread of the fire and the breaching of compartmentation. Their evidence is a valuable contribution to understanding how a normal kitchen fire could have such catastrophic consequences.

Yet, despite the important insights they had to offer, little space in the Inquirys 900-page report is given to their expert testimony, and no attempt is made to explore how the building came to be so fatally compromised.

The expert witnesses explained that the uPVC material of which the window frames were manufactured had little capacity to resist fire, with the material prone to lose its stiffness and deform at relatively low temperatures. This allowed the fire to escape the kitchen of Flat 16 and enter the cavities around the windows and then to ignite the cladding.

The Phase 1 report documents that Dr. Lane told the Inquiry how the construction and composition of materials around the windows increased the risk of a fire within the flat breaking out into these cavities, and emphasised that the windows were not provided with any fire-resisting cavity barriers and instead were surrounded by combustible materials. Because of this, if a fire started near a window there was a disproportionately high probability that it would spread into the cladding.

Professor Torero declared it was almost certain, if not inevitable, that a kitchen fire would occur in a building like Grenfell at some point in its lifetime.

The expert witnesses also drew attention to the role of the cavity between the concrete walls of Grenfell Tower and insulation of the tower, and the flammable aluminum composite material (ACM) cladding, which promoted the vertical spread of heat and flames up the tower in a chimney effect. The PIR (polyisocyanurate) insulation also contributed to the spread of flames up the tower, Professor Torero assessed.

By far the most significant factor in the rapid spread of the fire was the presence of the ACM cladding panels with a polyethylene core, the expert witnesses agreed. The high calorific value of polyethylene when compared to other materials provided an ideal fuel source for the growing fire and has a similar heat of combustion to petrol or diesel.

Polyethylene also melts at a much lower temperature than that of the average flame (which is typically between 600 and 800C) and will therefore melt and drip both before and after it has been ignited. In addition to promoting the vertical spread of the fire, the dripping ACM cladding with its polyethylene core played a central role in ensuring that the flames would rapidly advance downwards and horizontally.

According to the report, that rapid horizontal and downwards spread of flame was a unique feature of this particular fire, which sets it apart from many other international fires and is an important factor in making the outcome so devastating in terms of the loss of human life.

This was one of the primary factors in allowing a common domestic appliance fire to rapidly consume the entire tower, spreading up from the fourth to the top floor in under 20 minutes.

The blaze spread rapidly, particularly between 1:20 a.m. and 1:30 a.m., extending to the top of floor ten by around 1:21 a.m.; 45 seconds after that it had reached the top of floor 11 and up to the top of floor 12 another 45 seconds later. Between 1:23.36 a.m. and 01:26.37 a.m. the rate of fire spread accelerated from approximately two storeys per minute to approximately four storeys per minute.

Dr. Lane emphasised the role of fire doors in maintaining compartmentation, noting that while it was inevitable that fire doors would fail at some point, their performance could be particularly important for those who were awaiting rescue in their flats. She identified a number of failures of the fire-doors at Grenfell to comply with the appropriate standards. When tested by the Building Research Establishment to current standards, one of the stair doors resisted fire adequately for only 16 minutes, rather than the 30 minutes required.

Although she noted that some fire-doors were broken down by firefighters as they attempted to rescue trapped residents and some had been held open by fire-fighting equipment or other objects, she cautioned against attributing too much significance to the activities of the firefighters.

The report confirms that the fire started in the kitchen of Flat 16, which was rented by Behailu Kebede and which at the time of the fire was also occupied by two other housemates, Almaz Kinfu and Elsa Afeworki.

The eyewitness testimony of Kebede and the firefighters who entered Flat 16, and the analysis of the expert witnesses, confirm that the fire originated in the fridge-freezer in the flats kitchen, and quickly spread out the window into the cladding.

From analysing the burn patterns in the kitchen of Flat 16, expert witness Professor Nic Daid concluded that combustible materials to the left of the large fridge-freezer were burning during the early stages of the fire. This fire pattern could also have been influenced by ventilation effects from the nearby open window, the report notes.

Although it was not possible to identify the exact fault in the fridge-freezer, the report states, both footage from the thermal imaging camera carried by the firefighters and testimony from expert witness, Dr. Duncan Glover, about the different electrical appliances in Flat 16 overwhelmingly support the assessment of Professor Daid and Kebedes witness statement about the cause of the fire.

The report clears Kebede of any responsibility for the catastrophic inferno:

Mr. Kebede in particular bears no blame for what occurred in his flat, Moore-Bick stated, much less for the catastrophic events that followed. On the contrary, he did exactly what a responsible person might be expected to do in the circumstances and his presence of mind in switching off the electricity as he left the flat enabled important evidence to be gathered about the origin of the fire.

None of this evidence led Moore-Bick to issue a denunciation of the role played by companies such as Arconic and Celotex. It is clear from what has been learnt so far that the building suffered a total failure of compartmentation, the report concedes. How the building came to be in that state is the most pressing question to be answered in Phase 2.

Yet the companies that bear chief responsibility for the criminal failure of compartmentation and the subsequent massive loss of life, are still being allowed to continue and profit from their operations. Their contributions to the Inquiry are characterised first and foremost by contempt for those who have perished and had their lives ruined and crass denials of guilt.

The testimony given by Whirlpool Corporation, the manufacturer of Kebedes fridge-freezer, provides an example of this. Whirlpool recently made national headlines after announcing the recall of 519,000 models of washing machines sold to UK customers because they pose a potential fire hazard. Despite overwhelming evidence that the large fridge-freezer in Kebedes kitchen was the starting point of the fire, Whirlpool insisted in its closing statement to the Inquiry that this has not yet been proven.

Whirlpool challenged the evidence presented by Dr. Glover about the cause of the fire--while failing to provide any expert evidence to back up its own spurious claims. It suggested that the fire could have been started by a cigarette butt being dropped from an upper floor and falling through the open window of Flat 16 and igniting unknown materials on the kitchen floor!

So blatant and contemptuous was Whirlpools attempt to exculpate itself that Moore-Bick was compelled to denounce its suggestions as fanciful.

Although Whirlpool argued that no single piece of evidence pointed irresistibly or uniquely to that conclusion, Moore-Bicks report states, and that therefore it was not possible to determine the cause of the fire, in my view the combined force of the evidence as a whole points inexorably to that conclusion.

Cladding manufacturer Arconic dedicated the bulk of its submission to denying that its ACM cladding panels were the primary cause of the disaster and trying to prove that other materials used in the refurbishment, such as the foam insulation boards and the uPVC window surrounds, were just as much, if not more, to blame for what happened.

According to the Guardian, Arconic has already spent well over 30 million on lawyers and other advisers in cases linked to the Grenfell fire, a sum which dwarfs the amount spent on the cladding panels themselves, which were among the cheapest on the market.

Arconic as well as insulation manufacturers Celotex and Rydon all used their submissions to argue that the evidence presented in Phase 1 and the expert findings were too preliminary in nature to warrant drawing firm conclusions.

While Moore-Bick timidly suggested that there are some findings that can, and should, be made at this stage of the Inquiry, the report by and large submits to the diktat of the corporations by refusing to draw any conclusions relating to the dangerous materials which turned the building into a death trap.

This is made all the more significant, in the context of Moore-Bicks recent disgraceful entreaty, by the decision of Attorney General Geoffrey Cox that all corporate witnesses should be granted immunity from prosecution for anything they may say in the Inquiry.

The Moore-Bick Inquiry, a creature of the Conservative government, is a politically motivated cover-up, carrying out its glacier-like deliberations in order to shield the guilty from prosecution. To this day, nearly 1,000 days after the fire--not a single person responsible has been brought to justice.

The Inquiry was convened under the then Labour governments 2005 Inquiries Act, which states, An inquiry panel is not to rule on, and has no power to determine, any persons civil or criminal liability. Moore-Bick proposed, with then-Prime Minister Theresa May rushing to agree, that any issues of a social, economic and political nature should be barred from the Inquiry.

The Metropolitan Police have stated that no-one will face any criminal proceedings--if any are to be brought--until the second phase inquiry findings are published and a subsequent police study of its conclusions has taken place. It is suggested that this could take until 2025 -- fully eight years after the fire!

It is high time this fraud is ended. The millions of pounds wasted on the Inquiry should have been distributed to the Grenfell families, whose lives have been destroyed.

The Socialist Equality Party and the Grenfell Fire Forum urge the Grenfell families and their legal teams to withdraw all cooperation from this fraudulent inquiry and to demand that those guilty of the social murder be immediately arrested, charged and put on trial.

2019 has been a year of mass social upheaval. We need you to help the WSWS and ICFI make 2020 the year of international socialist revival. We must expand our work and our influence in the international working class. If you agree, donate today. Thank you.

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The Grenfell Tower Inquiry: Anatomy of a cover-upPart 3 - World Socialist Web Site

Anatomy

Anatomy of the bounce – Marcus Padley – Livewire Markets

This from Reuters this morning: Using data back to 1928, the S&P 500 has suffered a 10% or more collapse in a single week, 16 times. On average, over the next week, the index has enjoyed a 4.3% snapback. Looking forward 6 and 12 weeks from a week the SPX closed down 10% or more, on average the index was only up 1.5% and 3.9%, or less than the average week-1 snap-back.

And this is what I would expect from this bounce. A sharp rebound with all the buyers holding their fingers crossed behind their backs. There is no science here, the market isnt cheap, the value isnt obvious and the certainty of any buying is non-existent. It may be right it may be wrong, but dont think for a moment that the market is safe. It is not.

We are not buying into the bounce - we are thinking of selling into it but havent yet lets just see how it unfolds.

Having said that, for those of you who do want to buy a trade, here are some numbers and the best buying ideas for a snap back. I have broken the list into the TOP 50 by market cap and the NEXT 50. The tables show:

I have colour coded a few stocks:

Observations - If you believe this is the bottom then here are some of the stocks that will snap back - some of the obvious ideas are in red:

There are a lot of other stocks in the top 50 shown below mostly banks, REITs, infrastructure, utilities, gold - stocks that are probably not on the buy for a bounce list. Most of them have outperformed in the fall and are not your obvious go to trades.

TOP 50

NEXT 50

WORST OF THE REST

Some interesting growth stocks in here:

OVER AND UNDERVALUED

Here are some MARCUS TODAY laymans language EVALUATION TABLES of the above mentioned most obvious 'buy for a bounce' stock ideas - come a more relaxed market this would make a good portfolio - but not if we are on leg one of a bear market and seeing a dead cat bounce:

The table above is based on these numbers and the key below:

Key:

Marcus Padley is the author of the Marcus Today stock market newsletter. To sign up for a 14-day free trial please click here.

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Anatomy of the bounce - Marcus Padley - Livewire Markets