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Human Behavior

Beyond the bench: A conversation with Tony Zador – Spectrum

Anthony Zador

Professor, Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory

When Tony Zador is thinking about the brain, hes often exercising his body. A professor of neurosciences at Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory in New York, Zador has run five miles a day, seven days a week since he was 18. Thats when the ideas sort of click into place, he says.

His bagel-fueled afternoon jaunts have continued unabated during the coronavirus pandemic, helping to drive forward his research on how the brains disparate parts give rise to the complexity of human behavior and experience. Zadors lab created a brain-mapping technique known as BARseq an update to the earlier MAPseq that can trace connections and gene expression in individual neurons. The tool may help researchers understand how brains are connected differently in autistic people.

Spectrum spoke to Zador about the enigma of the human brain, the aha moments of running and why a ski resort is a good place for a scientific conference.

Spectrum: What question drives your research?

Tony Zador: Ultimately, its: How do you go from three pounds of brain to thought? We know an awful lot about the parts that make up brains the neurons, the synapses, the molecules and in spite of all that, we dont know how to put the pieces together to form a simple, coherent model of how that gives rise to thought and emotions and actions and memories. Its really frustrating, because its like youve got a bunch of Tinkertoys and you know that you have all the right pieces, and you dont know how to put them together quite right.

Theres a great cartoon of a bunch of Scrabble tiles, and the caption is something like, I just bought a book from Ikea. Thats kind of how I feel. We understand so much about the pieces, and yet we dont know how to put them together in quite the right way.

S: Is there a person youd like to work with whom you havent worked with yet?

TZ: Im really lucky that I have super smart people in my lab, but I also collaborate all the time with all sorts of people who later become friends or who were already friends. Just now Im really excited because Im just starting a grant with Ed Boyden. Weve been friends for years and talking about doing something together, and so now it looks like we can maybe do something that brings our technologies together and will allow us to do things that we wouldnt otherwise be able to do.

S: What does your daily routine look like?

TZ: My days arent that different now during COVID-19, except that the meetings, instead of being face to face in my office, are over Zoom. I have kids, so my daily routine used to start with being woken up earlier than I would like, to get my kids off to school, but now I get to sleep in a bit more. Usually I try to put off my meetings so I dont have them first thing, and I answer emails or maybe even think a little, but thats rare. Mostly I dont have time for that.

I occasionally have some time to work on reviewing papers, writing papers, writing grants, all those things. I dont have great study habits, so Im not very efficient, and an awful lot of my time when Im supposed to be doing something in particular is spent procrastinating and not doing it. Sometimes I go down scientific rabbit holes, and in some sense thats inefficient but probably good in the long run, because those are when I get excited about new ideas.

I run pretty much every day. I use that time to relax but also often to think through scientific things. Especially if Im doing something math-related, which is a lot of what I do, thats when those ideas sort of click into place. If Im stuck on something I go for a run, and when I get back I at least have an idea of what I should do next.

S: When and where are you most productive?

TZ: It depends. There are different stages of any project. For me, the creative time is at night Im a night owl. I get so little sleep because I wait until everyone is asleep, including the kids, and then I work until 2 or 3 a.m. Thats when I get most excited about tracking down ideas. Thats not necessarily when Im most productive in terms of writing sentences for a paper or something. That is more like a couple of hours after Ive woken up. But that assumes that Im productive, which Im really not these days.

Different people have different styles. Ive basically come to realize the trick is to embrace what you might think are your weaknesses as your strengths and find collaborators who complement your weaknesses. My strength is that I get excited early on in a project when the project is just being conceived. I love the excitement of doing something new. Once I come remotely close to mastering anything, I kind of start losing interest in it.

S: Do you have a favorite conference?

TZ: Ive actually started a bunch of conferences, so theyre among my favorites. When I was a postdoctoral researcher I started a conference called NIC, which was Neural Information and Coding. It was a small, invitation-only conference that was always at a ski resort. We would have meetings in the morning, then ski throughout the day, and then meet again in the evening. That eventually grew into a much larger conference called Cosyne Computational and Systems Neuroscience which has ballooned up to almost 1,000 people.

The most fun meetings are the smallest meetings. Its exactly the meeting I wish had been around when I was a graduate student or a postdoc.

I just started a new meeting for neuroscience and artificial intelligence, NAISys. It was going to be held at the end of March, and it was postponed until mid-November. It will bring together people interested in what real brains can tell us about how to build better artificial neural networks.

S: What are you reading right now?

TZ: You mean other than countless papers on immunology because of COVID? Im reading several books. One is called Other Minds, by Peter Godfrey-Smith. Its all about how smart octopuses are, and how theyre like this weird alien intelligence. Even though Im a neuroscientist, I knew almost nothing about octopuses. Theyre really smart, and the way their nervous system is organized is really different. Related to that, I just finished a book called, Are We Smart Enough to Know How Smart Animals Are? by Frans de Waal. Its just spectacular.

I was an M.D.-Ph.D., and even though I didnt go on to do a residency, the book all medical students had to read was a novel by a guy named Samuel Shem called The House of God. It captured deep truths about what its like to be a medical intern. Its basically a somewhat fictionalized year in the life of a medical intern at MGH, which stood for Mans Greatest Hospital. Fairly recently, he came out with a sequel called Mans Fourth Best Hospital, and I just started reading that, so Im excited.

S: What do you eat or drink while youre working?

TZ: I drink endless cups of coffee, and because I cant run on a full stomach, and it takes a very long time after eating for me to not have a full stomach, I basically eat bagels until I go for a run. So the answer is coffee and bagels.

Continued here:
Beyond the bench: A conversation with Tony Zador - Spectrum

Human Behavior

Editorial: Human behavior and the need to focus on rail safety – Chicago Daily Herald

When it comes to railroad safety, Illinois apparently has some issues with human behavior. Let safety specialist Steve Laffey of the Illinois Commerce Commission set the stage: "Illinois remains the hub of the national network, so while freight train volume was down by about 10% to 15% nationally and Metra and Amtrak also ran fewer trains, human behavior doesn't change."

That was Laffey speaking to our transportation and projects writer Marni Pyke for Monday's "In Transit" column about troubling safety statistics from the first half of 2020. That data compiled by the Federal Railroad Administration found, among other things, that while rail-crossing crashes declined nearly 20% during the pandemic-reduced travel period between last January and June, they went down just 2.2% in Illinois. That's an insignificant figure when you realize it reflects a difference of just one collision. In 2019, there were 45 rail-crossing crashes between January and June; this year, there were 44.

In the matter of deaths, the results are not much brighter. While crashes did decrease significantly between the lockdown months of March and the end of May, deaths did not. Four rail-crash fatalities occurred during the period in both years, but nonfatal injuries actually increased this year -- one in 2019; five in 2020.

These statistics come as National Rail Safety Week ended Sunday, and as long as we're noting uncomfortable comparisons, let's add one more -- nearby states.

The paltry decline in Illinois' crash rate compares to reductions in Indiana and Wisconsin of 23% and 24%, respectively. The rate went down close to half -- 45% -- in Michigan.

States are not in a competition to see which can perform best on the grimness scale, of course. But our neighbors' experience does highlight an important lesson that must be appreciated by every Illinoisan -- and especially every suburbanite, considering how much trains are a part of our transportation mosaic. Safety starts with each of us as individuals. Rail safety measures may differ from state to state, but with significant expenditures in infrastructure and technology in recent years and increased penalties intended to deter unsafe behaviors, Illinois is by no means indifferent to risk.

So, whatever the state's investment, individuals must make an investment of their own, a personal one, a recognition of the inherent danger posed at every rail line and every crossing. Trains, experts emphasize, are moving faster than it may appear, and it takes a long distance for them to stop -- as much as a mile.

Respect these facts. Protect yourself and your family. Let your conscious human behavior be your best safeguard against needless tragedy on the rails.

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Editorial: Human behavior and the need to focus on rail safety - Chicago Daily Herald

Human Behavior

This Falls College Reopenings Were a MessHere’s How to Avoid COVID-19 Outbreaks Next Semester – TIME

Despite dire warnings this summer from public health experts, over a third of U.S. colleges and universities went full steam ahead with reopening, saying they had no choice due to financial or political pressures. The results, in some instances, have been catastrophic.

From August 26 to September 10, 2020, there were at least 62,000 new positive test results at U.S. colleges and universities. A recent preprint study reports that colleges that reopened for in-person instruction this fall probably contributed more than 3,000 cases daily to their counties. About half of the counties with colleges around the country reported their worst week for cases in August. Given these mishaps, is there any way that colleges can successfully reopen in-person instruction during this pandemic?

Protecting students from getting infected needs to remain a priority. Its true that COVID-19 rarely kills young adults, but they can get sick and around 10% of infected people at any age can develop a long-term illness. Infected students can also infect older, vulnerable adults, including instructors and university maintenance and service staff. A recent CDC study showed that those between 20-29 years of age accounted for 20% of the new cases from June to August and in regions where infections among youth were seen, spikes in cases among seniors appeared about 9 days after spikes in the young. So, the young are contributing to community transmission and campus outbreaks can drive infection rates in the communities surrounding a university.

Campuses, like nursing homes and jails, are congregate settings and it is really hard to avert outbreaks under these kinds of living situations. The best-laid plans for reopening can still go awry. Even universities that seemed to have robust plans (like the University of Colorado, Boulder, which called itself a COVID-19 ready campus before reopening) have had outbreaks. The truth is you can make a situation safer or less safe but there will be an unclear demarcating line between the two, its position driven by both human behavior and the arc of the pandemic.

We need to quickly learn lessons from what went wrong with the first attempt at reopening. We should also learn from the colleges that, in the words of Erica Pandey, a business reporter at Axios, are getting reopening rightMiddlebury College in Vermont, for example, had tested 6,735 students and staff by September 28 and has had only two infections.

We wish that universities had taken the opportunity of reopening to formally conduct large-scale, forward-looking research that could guide our knowledge of safer reopening. In the absence of such research, however, we can still make some reasonable assertions based on case studies and on scientific modeling of different scenarios. Some common strategies are emerging from these experiences that may help colleges navigate the next semester more successfully.

Unless youre a tiny campus remote from town and you ban students from leaving, as Amherst did to create a bubble, you just cant seal off your campus from its surroundingsso the first step in improving safety is waiting until levels of community transmission have been driven down before reopening. While this is no guarantee of successBoston College had an outbreak in the week of September 7-13 (73 new cases) even though Massachusetts was doing relatively well in controlling the virusit is a lot easier to keep campus rates low when theres little virus in the surrounding community. Particularly if you are in an area of high transmission, it is completely reasonable to plan for an online-only spring semester, especially given that opening and then shutting down within a few weeks (as the University of North Carolina and North Carolina State University did) is hugely disruptive to education.

Entry testing and then high frequency surveillance of all students (and potentially staff) is of utmost importance. One modeling study found that, assuming typical student behavior, testing all students every two to three days with a rapid, cheap, high specificity test (a test thats very good at identifying people with the virus), is the best strategy to avert outbreaks. The CDC, whose leadership has repeatedly relented to pressure from the Trump Administration, unwittingly gave universities license to take risks when they came out in June against entry testing, a stance that was not based on evidence. An August survey led by the California Institute of Technology found that only one third of U.S. colleges that responded had done entry testing at the time, and only 20% planned on doing ongoing surveillance.

All colleges and universities need robust quarantining and isolation facilities. Even if a campus is in a county or state with little community transmission, arriving students come from all over the country and overseas, so at the start of semester a 14-day quarantine on arrival can be valuable. During the semester, any student who tests positive must be isolated, and those exposed to an infected person need to be quarantined. Universities must not send infected or exposed students home across the country, as this risks seeding further outbreaks nationwide. Such quarantining is, of course, much harder for colleges with large number of commuting students.

Students will socialize no matter what, so if your strategy to prevent outbreaks is just to urge students not to party or ask them to sign a personal responsibility compact, then you effectively have no strategy. Instead, universities need to offer safer alternatives to unmasked, indoor fraternity parties, such as outdoor and masked silent discos, movies, or yoga. As Julia Marcus, an infectious disease epidemiologist at Harvard says, What might actually stand a chance of working is giving students an opportunity to stay socially connected and have fun that are lower risknot necessarily zero riskbut lower risk than crowded indoor house parties. Universities have quickly identified the tension between taking a punitive approach to students breaking social distancing rules and then depending on those same students to truthfully share information for contact tracing purposes. It also remains too early to know if on-campus contact tracing is successful strategy in general, given concerns with privacy.

Universities must adopt the full range of so-called non-pharmaceutical measures to prevent the spread of the virus, including reducing campus density and enforcing universal masking, environmental cleansing, and distancing in common spaces such as dining halls. We now know the novel coronavirus can spread via aerosol transmission, which means that being inside around others in a poorly ventilated classroom is risky. This is why many universities are still leveraging digital learning, and pursuing a hybrid model even if they brought students on campus. If face-to-face teaching is absolutely essential, the risk of transmission can be reduced by adopting small class sizes, distancing, short class times, and fastidious attention to ventilation and air filtration.

If colleges and universities are putting lives on the line by reopening, they need to be fully transparent and provide a daily dashboard showing the number of tests, infections, and hospitalizations among staff and students both on and off campus. This type of transparency may help buy some community trust, and it also helps everyone learn which campuses are doing well in outbreak prevention. A team of independent public health experts recently started a website that rates university dashboards for these reasons. Seventeen out of the 175 universities rated so far received an A, the highest rating, based on criteria such as whether they state how soon test results come back and whether they report on city/county data (which acknowledges the potential effects on and from surrounding communities).

The challenge is that it looks as if you need to institute all of these strategies together to maximize chances of success. Focusing on just one or a few, rather than adopting a comprehensive integrated approach, has led to outbreaks. University of Colorado, Boulder, for example, had one of the best protocols in the country for ensuring classrooms were ventilated, and the University of Notre Dame conducted high frequency COVID-19 testingbut their plans were upended when off-campus parties became super-spreading events. Several large universities (such as Harvard, Boston and Tufts universities) in Massachusetts have adopted a fairly similar collection of interventions mentioned above including quarantine, arrival and surveillance testing and dashboard transparency with differing levels of in person learning. For now, these universities and others pursuing more comprehensive measures in areas of low prevalence appear to have the best chances of averting outbreaks as we enter the fall.

The interventions weve described take resources and, as with K-12 schools, this pandemic is going to worsen inequality in learning at the college level, as private universities can leverage more resources and wealthier students have a much larger range of options. Public institutions of higher learning need government support, not just to stay afloat but to ensure that they can offer high-quality digital education to students of all income levels. We are already seeing economically disadvantaged minority and rural students dropping out of college at higher rates. Private universities should consider partnering with public universities in their cities during these difficult times to share resources such as testing (large university labs at private universities could run some extra batches of tests at little cost). And we urgently need more information on best practices and logistic hurdles in digital learning so schools that cannot open can at least adopt these practices. Data show that entering into this pandemic, most instructors in the U.S. did not have experience with digital resources.

Universities will also face even bigger challenges ahead because the virus isnt going away any time soonin fact, cases are currently rising in many states. And with the onset of colder weather, which drives greater indoor gathering, and flu and respiratory virus season, the fall and winter are likely to herald nationwide increases in COVID-19 cases. Schools also probably need to start thinking of this as a multi-year challenge. Even in a best-case scenario, vaccine-generated herd immunity in the U.S. wont be reached until after late 2021when a candidate vaccine is hopefully expected to be widely availableso we have at least another pandemic school year ahead.

It will take a serious investment of resources for American universities to reopen safely. But this is an investment worth making, as this pandemic will be with us at least until the end of 2021, and maybe longer.

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This Falls College Reopenings Were a MessHere's How to Avoid COVID-19 Outbreaks Next Semester - TIME

Human Behavior

Column: The Social Solution | Columnists | thesheridanpress.com – The Sheridan Press

If you havent watched "The Social Dilemma" yet, you should.

Essentially, its a bunch of Silicon Valley brainiacs sharing their opinions on how social media and artificial intelligence technology started as a fun, creative tool tweaked by innovators into a beast that now controls them instead of them controlling it.

While most documentaries have a biased slant and portray information to show the topic at hand as either evil or amazing, this one brings in former employees of Google, Facebook, Twitter, Pinterest and the like alongside journalists, scientists and psychoanalysts to help drive home the point.

The point being that people worldwide are increasingly becoming addicted to technology subliminally through AI and manipulation.

As I watched, I discovered one thing I didnt agree with the experts on all people are uncontrollably controlled by AI technology.

Sure, there are really smart people and technologies smarter than those people that anticipate our next move before we make it. But I believe there are ways we can avoid addiction and maintain control of the things incentivized to control us through financial gain.

Find out what sucks you in the most.

What keeps you connected to your phone or other device when you should probably be doing something more productive work, chores, human connection? Does that pull to your device border on addiction?

Addicted: Physically and mentally dependent on a particular substance, and unable to stop taking it without incurring adverse effects.

For me, that was Instagram. Not for the likes and validation like "The Social Dilemma" points out and I observe with youth today. It was constantly feeling like I needed connection or to be entertained.

Flush it out.

Figure out a way to lessen your dependence on one or more particular app on which you spend too much time. For me, I simply removed the Instagram application from my smartphone and signed out of all accounts. For those who also struggle to remember passwords, this is an effective method for decreasing dependence.

I eventually wanted to see pictures of my adorable niece and nephew each day, so I eased back in slowly. I purged all the people I didnt need to follow and remained extremely choosy when picking those I followed family and close friends I remain in contact with outside of social media. Everyone else just encouraged wasted time and unnecessary, inauthentic connection with people with whom I no longer associated.

The crazy part about this and I dont know if other social media sites would do the same was Instagram did not allow me to unfollow more than 50 people within a 12- to 24-hour period. Over a few days, though, I eventually purged acquaintances and famous accounts from my feed.

Utilize tools to affect behavioral change.

Apple developers helped create tools to avoid overuse, essentially lessening the ability to control human behavior by keeping people sucked into their product for financial gain. Apple allows for dissociation with the color recognition of your favorite social media app icons by transforming all apps to black, white and greys.

Screen time as recognized in "The Social Dilemma" limits are a great first step to provide a check before heading back into the app in which you find yourself too often.

Seek external help.

If you find you cannot purge yourself or are struggling to tear technology away from your children, seek additional help. Start with friends and family you trust to help keep you in check. If thats not enough, find a counselor or support group specific to your addiction. Technological addiction is as real as excessive gambling or drinking, and its OK and acceptable to admit you need help and seek people out.

Ashleigh Snoozy joined The Sheridan Press in October 2016 as a reporter before moving into the managing editor position in November 2018. She is a native of Colorado and graduated from Biola University in Los Angeles.

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Column: The Social Solution | Columnists | thesheridanpress.com - The Sheridan Press

Human Behavior

Studies with monkeys find early attachment brings generations of benefits – ScienceBlog.com

To understand the importance of early-life attachment to mothers and how it affects the likelihood of success across generations, we can learn a lot from monkeys, say scientists.

In a long-term study of rhesus monkeys, Yale researchers have quantified the health and social benefits of secure mother-rearing and attachment. The working paper,published in the National Bureau of Economic Research, suggests that the benefits of early attachment persist for generations.

The study was led by Amanda Dettmer, associate research scientist at Yale, along with economists including Nobel laureate James Heckman from the University of Chicago, and represents a unique collaboration between primatology and economics.

Its really novel to show intergenerational effects, said Dettmer, a primatologist and behavioral neuroscientist. And its a really novel collaboration between two very different fields of study.

For the study, the scientists observed 650 mother-infant pairs. At birth, monkeys were randomly assigned to be reared by their mothers or reared in a nursery. Those monkeys who were nursery reared had human caregivers for the first 40 days and were then either assigned to a cloth surrogate with daily peer playtime, or housed together with four other monkey peers. After eight months, all monkeys were housed and treated identically. This randomization occurred in subsequent generations as well.

According to Dettmer, rhesus monkeys can reveal important insights for understanding human behavior. They share 93% of their DNA with humans, develop attachment at infancy, and have similar social structures to humans. They are very valid models for human conditions, but they develop four times faster, she said. We can get answers much faster than we can from humans.

Unlike in studies of humans, in which children cannot be randomly assigned to particular early life experiences, this experimental paradigm allowed researchers to test causality rather than simply correlation between early social experiences and later health outcomes. And because the researchers had access to data collected over four decades, they were also able to show how these early-life advantages benefited generations of descendants.

Researchers found that in cases where monkeys were reared by their mothers and descended from generations of monkeys reared by their mothers, they were most likely to have healthier outcomes later in life and to require less veterinary care. These monkeys also scored higher on dominance measures achieving a higher social ranking as evidenced through easier access to food and sweets and grooming from preferred partners.

These were the monkeys who got the banana first, Dettmer said.

Nursery-reared monkeys whose mothers were reared by their mothers did not realize the same benefits. That is, researchers found that the benefits of mother-rearing were only positive for the offspring of mothers who themselves were reared by mothers. Parenting, the authors conclude, is the primary channel of intergenerational transmission of early-life advantage.

Dettmer noted that monkeys assigned to nurseries were still given an extremely enriched environment with access to caregivers around the clock as well as daily playtime and stimulating cognitive assessments. But the absence of a mother caregiver had a lasting impact, she said.

Heckman haspreviously shownthat investments in a childs early years via quality early childhood programs yielded benefits across their lifespan.

The current paper looks at how investments in early care and secure attachments provides benefits that persist across generations. The monkeys who were nursery-reared can be equated with children who are unable to develop secure attachments, said Dettmer, such as might be experienced by those in foster care.

Dettmers lab is continuing research, not only into the health and behavioral outcomes of early attachment but also into changes that might be happening at the biological level. We want to see how early experiences influence DNA methylation and how that, too, helps to explain differences, she said.

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Studies with monkeys find early attachment brings generations of benefits - ScienceBlog.com

Human Behavior

McKinsey Digital Says Covid-19 Has Revealed The Achilles Heel Of Analytics – Forbes

VOLGOGRAD, RUSSIA - SEPTEMBER 28, 2020: A thermal imaging screen shows children's body temperatures ... [+] at the entrance to secondary school No 17 in Voroshilovsky District. Dmitry Rogulin/TASS (Photo by Dmitry RogulinTASS via Getty Images)

Frost & Sullivans new September 28, 2020 report,The Reshaping of Industries Caused by COVID-19, identifies nine global trends that will emerge as a response to Covid-19. The analysis says that pandemic preparedness will speed the deployment of AI solutions and accelerate AI innovation and rely on AI and machine learning (ML) tools to expedite digital transformation across crucial business initiatives.

But, McKinsey Digital says that Covid-19 has allowed them to see the Achilles heel of artificial intelligence (AI) and analytics.

While Covid-19 has been a catalyst for AI and analytics adoption by many businesses that hadnt digitized their operations, Tamim Saleh, Senior Partner, McKinsey Analytics, says the predictive powers of analytics are failing.

While analytics has helped many businesses to navigate the crisis, it has also shown fallibility, said Saleh. As a technology that relies on the details of past patterns and behaviors to predict what will happen next and what action a business ought to take, Covid-19 has thrown a bit of a spanner in the works, given this predictive model is no longer effective, with the pandemic having transformed the way we live, and work.

With the data feeding into algorithmic models having been built before the crisis, a lot of predictive models have lost their relevance, breaking down as a result of Covid-19, said Saleh.

Saleh believes that this is because these models are no longer reflective of the world we all live in today. In the same way, we didnt have a pandemic handbook telling us how to adapt; they too, dont have the data to predict what will happen next, adds Saleh.

According to Saleh, the retail sector is a good example of irrelevant models.

In retail, models were often built primarily on physical footfall. This [..] stopped when the pandemic struck. Retailers werent anticipating all their sales to move to online channels and this is not just a short-term change, said Saleh. Our research has shown that around 60% of consumers who are new to digital channels have decided to stick at it. Following the Covid-19 pandemic and the shift in consumer behavior, this had meant that when the physical stores reopened, the algorithms for forecasting, budgeting and revenue instantly became outdated.

To get to more accurate predictions again, the only solution is to re-engineer models that are relevant for the world we live in today, said Saleh.

Now, more than ever, businesses need to be pragmatic to survive, said Saleh. In the next normal, there are too many unknowns, and so human judgment is critical in all decision making. Today, for many models, it is not possible to get the perfect data or historical correlations that can help with predicting future events. This is where human judgment comes in.

Saleh says that businesses need to embrace the 80:20 rule, which means changing the entire analytics approach.

Instead of building teams and plans based purely on analytics and data, it is time to re-prioritize human judgment, said Saleh. At the beginning of 2020, predictive modeling and AI judgment were sophisticated enough for many businesses to rely on. Today, you need to do so with caution and realize that the human element has become, in many ways, more important.

Saleh believes that there are several ways to categorize disruption to analytics and AI, starting with the level of sophistication of the model and how features are weighed.

The more complex your model is, the more opaque it is, so it is more difficult to gauge when its predictive powers may be in question, said Saleh. Looking at theaters, while a lot of data exists around ticket bookings, pricing, etc., we cannot [..] say in any way shape or form, how they will operate in four years from now.

However, on the other side of the coin, theres the nature of the model itself. If your AI and analytics model is being used to measure quality control in a factory, then likely, that model will not have been heavily disrupted by Covid-19, said Saleh

But Saleh points out that if youre using AI and analytics models in industries highly impacted by human behavior, such as retail, then Covid-19 will have caused a lot of disruption to the models in place.

This is because ultimately, the pandemic has impacted our lives in many dimensions such as what we buy, how much we spend, and how we react to advertising messages, said Saleh. Therefore, any model relying on analytics around behavior can very quickly become obsolete. And so, to recover, we need to be pragmatic.

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McKinsey Digital Says Covid-19 Has Revealed The Achilles Heel Of Analytics - Forbes

Human Behavior

Archaeologists determined the step-by-step path taken by the first people to settle the Caribbean islands – Huron Daily Tribune

(The Conversation is an independent and nonprofit source of news, analysis and commentary from academic experts.)

Matthew F. Napolitano, University of Oregon; Jessica Stone, University of Oregon; Robert DiNapoli, Binghamton University, State University of New York, and Scott Fitzpatrick, University of Oregon

(THE CONVERSATION) For the millions of people around the world who live on islands today, a plane or boat can easily enough carry them to the mainland or other islands.

But how did people in the ancient past first make it to distant islands they couldnt even see from home? Many islands around the world can be reached only by traveling hundreds or even thousands of miles across open water, yet nearly all islands that people live on were settled by between 800 to 1,000 years ago.

Archaeologists like us want to understand why people would risk their lives to reach these far-off places, what kinds of boat and navigational methods they used, and what other technologies they invented to make it. Islands are important places to study because they hold clues about human endurance and survival in different kinds of environments.

One of the most interesting places to study these processes is the Caribbean, the only region of the Americas where people settled an archipelago with some islands not visible from surrounding areas. Despite more than a century of research, there are still many questions about the origins of the first Caribbean people, when they migrated and what routes they took. My colleagues and I recently reanalyzed archaeological data collected over 60 years to answer these fundamental questions.

Settling the islands one by one

Based on the discovery of unique stone tools and food remains such as shells and bones, archaeologists have a general understanding that people first spread throughout the Caribbean in a series of migrations that probably began at least 7,000 years ago and likely originated from northern South America.

Amerindians paddled between islands in dugout canoes and were remarkably adept at open-water travel. Archaeologists dont know what inspired people to first colonize the Caribbean islands, but we do know they brought plants and animals from the mainland, like manioc and oppossum, to help ensure their survival.

There are two main ideas about what happened. For decades, the prevailing notion was that people migrated from South America into the Antilles in a south-to-north stepping-stone pattern. Because the islands stretch in a gentle arc from Grenada all the way up to Cuba in the northwest with many largely visible from one to the next this would seem to provide a convenient path for early settlers.

This hypothesis, however, has been challenged by evidence that some of the earliest sites are in the northern islands. Analyses of wind and ocean currents suggest that it was actually easier to travel directly between South America and the northern Caribbean before moving in a southerly direction. Researchers call this proposal of a north-to-south migration the southward route hypothesis.

Revisiting previous scientists date data

Figuring out which model for settling the Caribbean best fits the evidence depends on being able to assign accurate dates to human activity preserved in the archaeological record. To do this, researchers need a lot of reliable dates from many different sites throughout the islands to establish how, when and from where people landed.

Archaeologists typically use a technique called radiocarbon dating to figure out how old an artifact is. When an organism dies, it stops producing carbon and its remaining carbon decays at a fixed rate of time archaeologists say death starts the clock. By measuring the amount of carbon left in the organism and then performing a few additional calculations, scientists are left with a probable age range for when that organism died.

Archaeologists often date things like food remains, charcoal from cooking hearths or wood in the building where they are found. If archaeologists date shells found in a trash heap, they can tell, usually within a range of 25 to 50 years or so, when that shellfish was harvested for a meal.

We recently reevaluated about 2,500 radiocarbon dates from hundreds of archaeological sites on more than 50 Caribbean islands.

Archaeologists have been radiocarbon dating findings in the Caribbean since the 1950s when the radiocarbon technique was first discovered. But dating methods and the standards scientists follow have improved dramatically since then. Part of our job was to see if each of the 2,500 radiocarbon dates available would meet todays standards. Dates that did not meet those standards were thrown out, leaving us with a smaller database of only the most reliable times for human activity.

Determining where people lived first

By statistically analyzing these remaining dates, we confirmed that Trinidad was the first Caribbean island settled by humans, at least 7,000 years ago. However, Trinidad is so close to South America that only simple or even no boats were needed to get there.

After Trinidad, the oldest settlements occurred between 6,000 and 5,000 years ago in the northern Caribbean on the large islands of the Greater Antilles: Cuba, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Reaching them would have required crossing passages of water where no islands were visible to the naked eye, although navigators rely on other wayfinding techniques like current, cloud patterns, seeing birds fly in a certain direction to know if land is out there. By around 2,500 years ago, people had spread out to settle other islands in the northern Lesser Antilles, including Antigua and Barbuda.

Based on these data, the patterns of initial settlement of the Caribbean are most consistent with the southward route hypothesis.

Around 1,800 years ago, a new wave of people also moved from South America into the Lesser Antilles, colonizing many of the remaining uninhabited islands. About 1,000 years later, their descendants moved into the smaller islands of the Greater Antilles and Bahamian archipelago. This is when Jamaica and the Bahamas were settled for the first time.

Our research findings also support the widely held view that environment played a significant role in how and when islands were settled.

Archaeologists know that once people settled islands, they frequently moved between them. Not all islands are the same, and some offered more or better resources than others. For example, in the Bahamas and the Grenadines, the primary way to access freshwater is by digging wells; there are no streams or springs. Some islands lacked clay for making pottery, which was important for cooking and storing food. People may have also traveled to different islands to access preferred fishing or hunting spots or seek out marriage partners.

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Strong seasonal winds and currents facilitated travel between islands. Thats also probably one of the reasons why Caribbean people never developed the sail or other seafaring technologies that were used in the Pacific, Mediterranean and North Atlantic around the same time. Dugout canoes crossed between South America and the islands just fine.

Interpretations of past human behavior at archaeological sites are anchored by radiocarbon dates to study change over time. For archaeologists, its important to periodically take another look at the data to make sure that the narratives built on those data are reliable. Our review of the radiocarbon record for the Caribbean allowed us to show with increased accuracy the ways in which the region was first colonized by people, how they interacted and moved between islands, and how their societies developed following initial colonization.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article here: https://theconversation.com/archaeologists-determined-the-step-by-step-path-taken-by-the-first-people-to-settle-the-caribbean-islands-130669.

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Archaeologists determined the step-by-step path taken by the first people to settle the Caribbean islands - Huron Daily Tribune

Human Behavior

Bear Roams the Streets of Chattanooga then Euthanized: Reactions – WDEF News 12

CHATTANOOGA, Tenn. (WDEF)- As if 2020 wasnt crazy enough, a bear walked around the streets of Chattanooga searching for food.

My gosh thats freaky. Id be running.

Ethan Dudley was in shock to find out a bear lurked the streets of downtown Chattanooga near his UTC campus.

Im glad I wasnt around. Id probably be running the other way.

His peer, Mary Laufenberg, felt the same way.

It made me really scared because it was at the restaurant we eat at all the time and if we have gone out that day, we would have seen it.

News 12s very own Chip Chapman caught a sight of that bear when he was standing on Chestnut Street.

Here comes a bear and its a good size bear moving at a good clip.

A bears instinct is to look for food.

Chips first instinct protect his wife.

I started moving slowly towards her but the bear was running on past. This bear was a good size bear no doubt about that and he was within five or six feet of us.

Tennessee Wildlife Resources Agency confirmed that the bear was euthanized.

Viewers message News 12 saying they were appalled and wished for it to be relocated.

It is not a good day when we have to put down an animal because of human behavior said Mime Barnes of T.W.R.A.

Barnes says the bear was previously relocated before.

The animal was put in that situation because it was habituated to human food and knows to go towards humans for that food. Secondly so many people follow that animal it created an unsafe situation.

Barnes recommends visitinghttp://bearwise.org for information on how to prevent wild life from entering domestic spaces.

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Bear Roams the Streets of Chattanooga then Euthanized: Reactions - WDEF News 12

Human Behavior

ESAs -Week: Digital Twin Earth, Quantum Computing and AI Take Center Stage – SciTechDaily

Digital Twin Earth will help visualize, monitor, and forecast natural and human activity on the planet. The model will be able to monitor the health of the planet, perform simulations of Earths interconnected system with human behavior, and support the field of sustainable development, therefore, reinforcing Europes efforts for a better environment in order to respond to the urgent challenges and targets addressed by the Green Deal. Credit: ESA

ESAs 2020 -week event kicked off this morning with a series of stimulating speeches on Digital Twin Earth, updates on -sat-1, which was successfully launched into orbit earlier this month, and an exciting new initiative involving quantum computing.

The third edition of the -week event, which is entirely virtual, focuses on how Earth observation can contribute to the concept of Digital Twin Earth a dynamic, digital replica of our planet which accurately mimics Earths behavior. Constantly fed with Earth observation data, combined with in situ measurements and artificial intelligence, the Digital Twin Earth provides an accurate representation of the past, present, and future changes of our world.

Digital Twin Earth will help visualize, monitor, and forecast natural and human activity on the planet. The model will be able to monitor the health of the planet, perform simulations of Earths interconnected system with human behavior, and support the field of sustainable development, therefore, reinforcing Europes efforts for a better environment in order to respond to the urgent challenges and targets addressed by the Green Deal.

Todays session opened with inspiring statements from ESAs Director General, Jan Wrner, ESAs Director of Earth Observation Programmes, Josef Aschbacher, ECMWFS Director General, Florence Rabier, European Commissions Deputy Director General for Defence Industry and Space, Pierre Delsaux, as well as Director General of DG CONNECT at the European Commission, Roberto Viola.

The -week 2020 opened on 28 September with inspiring statements from ESAs Director General, Jan Wrner (left) and ESAs Director of Earth Observation Programmes, Josef Aschbacher. Credit: ESA

Pierre Delsaux commented, As our EU Commission President repeated recently during her State of the Union speech, its clear we need to address climate change. The Copernicus program offers us some of the best instruments, satellites, to give us a complete picture of our planets health. But space is not only a monitoring tool, it is also about applied solutions for our economy to make it more green and more digital.

Roberto Viola said, -week is the week for disruptive technology and it is communities like this that our European programmes were designed to support.

Florence Rabier added, Machine learning and artificial intelligence could improve the realism and efficiency of the Digital Twin Earth especially for extreme weather events and numerical forecast models.

Jan Wrner concluded, -week is the perfect example of the New Space approach focusing on disruptive innovation, artificial intelligence, agility and flexibility.

During the week, experts will come together to discuss the role of artificial intelligence for the Digital Twin Earth concept, its practical implementation, the infrastructure requirements needed to build the Digital Twin Earth, and present ideas on how industries and the science community can contribute.

Cloud mask from -sat-1. Credit: Cosine remote sensing B.V

Earlier this month, on 3 September, the first artificial intelligence (AI) technology carried onboard a European Earth observation mission, -sat-1, was launched from Europes spaceport in French Guiana. An enhancement of the Federated Satellite Systems mission (FSSCat), the pioneering artificial intelligence technology is the first experiment to improve the efficiency of sending vast quantities of data back to Earth.

Today, ESA, along with cosine remote sensing, are happy to reveal the first ever hardware-accelerated AI inference of Earth observation images on an in-orbit satellite performed by a Deep Convolutional Neural Network, developed by the University of Pisa.

-sat-1 has successfully enabled the pre-filtering of Earth observation data so that only relevant part of the image with usable information are downlinked to the ground, thereby improving bandwidth utilization and significantly reducing aggregated downlink costs.

Initial data downlinked from the satellite has shown that the AI-powered automatic cloud detection algorithm has correctly sorted hyperspectral Earth observation imagery from the satellites sensor into cloudy and non-cloudy pixels.

Lake Tharthar, Iraq. Credit: Cosine remote sensing B.V

Massimiliano Pastena, -sat-1 Technical Officer at ESA, commented, We have just entered the history of space.

Todays successful application of the Ubotica Artificial Intelligence technology, which is powered by the Intel Movidius Myriad 2 Vision Processing Unit, has demonstrated real on-board data processing autonomy.

Aubrey Dunne, Co-Founder and Vice President of Engineering at Ubotica Technologies, said, We are very excited to be a key part of what is to our knowledge the first ever demonstration of AI applied to Earth Observation data on a flying satellite. This is a watershed moment both for onboard processing of satellite data, and for the future of AI inference in orbital applications.

As the overall 2017 Copernicus Masters winner, FSSCat, was proposed by Spains Universitat Politcnica de Catalunya and developed by a consortium of European companies and institutes including Tyvak International.

Also mentioned in his opening speech this morning, Josef Aschbacher made a special announcement regarding an exciting new ESA initiative, the EOP AI-enhanced Quantum Initiative for EO QC4EO in collaboration with the European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN).

Quantum computing has the potential to improve performance, decrease computational costs and solve previously intractable problems in Earth observation by exploiting quantum phenomena such as superposition, entanglement, and tunneling.

Quantum computing has the potential to improve performance, decrease computational costs and solve previously intractable problems in Earth observation by exploiting quantum phenomena such as superposition, entanglement and tunneling. Credit: IBM

The initiative involves creating a quantum capability which will have the ability to solve demanding Earth observation problems by using artificial intelligence to support programmes such as Digital Twin Earth and Copernicus. The initiative will be developed at the -lab an ESA laboratory at ESAs center for Earth observation in Italy, which embraces transformational innovation in Earth observation.

ESA and CERN enjoy a long-standing collaboration, centered on technological matters and fundamental physics. This collaboration will be extended to link to the CERN Quantum Technology Initiative, which was announced in June 2020 by the CERN Director General, Fabiola Gianotti.

Through this partnership, ESA and CERN will create new synergies, building on their common experience in big data, data mining and pattern recognition.

Giuseppe Borghi, Head of the -lab, said, Quantum computing together with AI are perhaps the most promising breakthrough to come along in computer technology. In the coming years, we will see more Earth or space science disciplines employing current or future quantum computing techniques to solve geoscience problems.

Josef Aschbacher added, ESA will exploit the broad range of specialized expertise available at ESA and we will place ourselves in a unique position and take a leading role in the development of quantum technologies in the Earth observation domain.

Alberto Di Meglio, Coordinator of the CERN Quantum Technology Initiative, said, Quantum technologies are a rapidly growing field of research and their applications have the potential to revolutionize the way we do science. Preparing for that paradigm change, by building knowledge and tools, is essential. This new collaboration on quantum technologies bears great promise.

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ESAs -Week: Digital Twin Earth, Quantum Computing and AI Take Center Stage - SciTechDaily

Human Behavior

Jordi Fernandez makes for intriguing head coaching option with Pelicans due to fascinating blend of human beh – The Bird Writes

On Saturday, August 15th, the New Orleans Pelicans announced the end of head coach Alvin Gentrys tenure and executive vice president David Griffin made clear that the organization will be in no rush to hire a successor, preaching patience in their process.

We will not be quick with this at all. This is not a rush, Griffin said in response to a question regarding the timetable. We have a job that we believe is going to be the most attractive in the NBA, quite frankly. With all of the candidates still in the (Orlando) bubble and there are some that may not be candidates you may want to talk to are still with teams, in many circumstances.

So, lets take a closer look at potential candidates who may be the right long-term fit to lead Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram and the rest of the roster to the next level.

*****

Its been six weeks since the end of former head coach Alvin Gentrys tenure in New Orleans and yet the Pelicans have failed to conduct formal interviews for his replacement according to Adrian Wojnarowski.

David Griffin asked for patience in the process, citing the perceived value of the position as a reason candidates may be willing to wait.

And wait they have.

While the Brooklyn Nets, Chicago Bulls and New York Knicks have tagged their replacements, the Houston Rockets, Philadelphia 76ers, Indiana Pacers, Oklahoma City Thunder and Pelicans positions remain open. Hot names such as Ty Lue, Kenny Atkinson and Mike DAntoni remain available despite their pedigrees.

Weve established that the Pelicans may be waiting for an unlikely candidate still within the bubble. Are other teams too?

One name that can be readily traced to Griffin and the Pelicans front office is Denver Nuggets assistant Jordi Fernandez. His NBA coaching track began in Cleveland, shortly before Griffin was hired there as vice president of basketball operations in 2010. How Fernandez got there though, is a feel-good story fit for a Disney movie.

At just 26 years of age, Fernandez was coaching then head coach Mike Browns son Elijah in the AAU circuit. Armed with a heavy accent and an incredible feel for coaching and building relationships, Brown quickly spied the traits of a great coach. He invited Fernandez back home for what Fernandez failed to recognize was his first interview.

They would always stop me and say, Youre driving Mike Browns car, but youre not Mike Brown, Jordi Fernandez told the Athletic.

His responsibility was Elijah, but he would sometimes shuttle (younger son) Cameron to an event because he had one of my cars and it wasnt like he was working 24/7, Mike Brown said. One of the things I told Jordi, I said what Ill also let you do is you can sit in on every single one of our coaches meetings, as long as you dont have something to do with Elijah. You can come to every single one of our practices and watch. Youve got carte blanche around here because youre working for me.

Its no wonder he caught Browns attention. Fernandez had already put together quite the resume in human behavior. With a degree in sports science and one published report away from a PHD in sports psychology, Fernandez offers an alternative method of connecting with his athletes.

In 2009, (Fernandez) co-authored an academic article titled Identifying and analyzing the construction and effectiveness of offensive plays in basketball by using systematic observation.

I can give my opinion (on sports performance) because Ive seen it, Ive done it, I have a feel for it, Fernandez told the Denver Post.

The life experience Fernandez racked up in Europe is another impressive trait in the potential candidate. After growing up in Spain without learning the English language, he studied in Amsterdam and then Norway, where he became a university professor.

During his brief time in the NBA, hes already coached and worked with some of the best.

While with the Cavaliers, Fernandez roomed with Griffins top assistant, Trent Redden, now assistant general manager to the Los Angeles Clippers. He served alongside popular candidate Jahmal Mosley.

Hes been around Hall of Famers, but hes also been around the last guys in the G League, said Mike Gansey, the Cavaliers assistant general manager. Whoever walks through that door, he can relate to them hes either watched it, lived it or seen it. Thats why hes so valuable.

Serving principally in player development, Fernandez cut his teeth working with young prospects such as Kyrie Irving, Dion Waiters, Tristan Thompson and Matthew Dellavedova. In 2014-15 he was named head coach of the Cavaliers G League affiliate, the Canton Charge. Hed lead the group to two 31-win campaigns and back-to-back playoff appearances.

I grew so much in Cleveland and in the G League, Fernandez said. Thats why I got the job here, he said of Denver.

In 2016, he was hired as an assistant to Mike Malone in Denver right alongside fellow candidates Chris Finch and Wes Unseld Jr.

Hes a very good teacher; he relates especially well to young players, Denver Nuggets head coach Mike Malone said. To see how much hes grown since our year together in Cleveland is amazing.

A tireless and dedicated worker, his work isnt simply relegated to Denver. Jordi serves as assistant to the Spanish national team and even followed Anderson Varejao to Brazil to work out in the offseason during his time in Cleveland.

Despite the experiences hed acquired with the Canton Charge and the Spanish national team, Mike Malone moved him behind the bench in favor of David Adelman. How he responded quickly, though, impressed Malone who then decided to assign him as Denvers summer league head coach in consecutive seasons.

He didnt feel sorry for himself, Malone recalled. He didnt pout. He was disappointed, and we talked about it. But he went out there and I thought he had a better year this year than he did last year.

Fernandez was cited in ESPNs annual report as a candidate to watch in 2019 and earned his first head coaching interview with the Cleveland Cavaliers, thanks to his continued development of young athletes such as Jamal Murray, Gary Harris, Malik Beasley, Nikola Jokic and Monte Morris, among others.

Dont take no mess at all, Morris added. He likes guys that watch film. He likes guys that are locked in.

Its obvious that the work he put in on Denvers top-notch coaching staff paid off as evidenced by their run to the Western Conference finals. Even more impressive was the manner in which they did it, overcoming two 3-1 series deficits.

Those performances came from the surge in production of guys like Jamal Murray and Jerami Grant, but it was born out of a blend of coaching and culture over the years by Malones staff.

You talk to him for five minutes, and you feel like youre his best friend or youre an important person, Gansey told the Denver Post. He makes you feel wanted so much Hes just got that personality and that presence, especially with players.

He gives more than basketball. Thats why I think our guys got so much better and people liked him so much He could read people and knew when he had to get on them and when not (to) and how to treat them to get the most out of them.

At the end of the day, its Fernandezs job to explain the sets and execute them in practice. While instructing them and building a relationship that can translate to buy-in is critical, Fernandez business-first approach to coaching forces discipline in its execution.

Do it again, Fernandez said as reported by the Post. And dont (expletive) it up.

Based on his ties to Griffin and his international coaching experience, which should appeal to Trajan Langdon, could Fernandez be a target for the Pelicans either as a top assistant or even as head coach?

For more Pelicans talk, subscribe to The Bird Calls podcast feed on iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher or Google Podcasts. You can follow this author on Twitter at @PrestonEllis.

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Jordi Fernandez makes for intriguing head coaching option with Pelicans due to fascinating blend of human beh - The Bird Writes