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Neuroscience

New UNC computational tool boosts understanding of genetic disorders affecting the brain – WRAL Tech Wire

CHAPEL HILL Scientists at the UNC School of Medicine and colleagues created a new computational tool called H-MAGMA to study the genetic underpinnings of nine brain disorders, including the identification of new genes associated with each disorder.

The research,published inNature Neuroscience, revealed that genes associated with psychiatric disorders are typically expressed early in life, highlighting the likelihood of this early period of life as critical in the development of psychiatric illnesses. The researchers also discovered that neurodegenerative disorder-associated genes are expressed later in life. Lastly, the scientists linked these disorder-associated genes to specific brain cell types.

By using H-MAGMA, we were able to link non-coding variants to their target genes, a challenge that had previously limited scientists ability to derive biologically meaningful hypotheses from genome-wide association studies of brain disorders, said study senior authorHyejung Won, PhD, assistant professor of genetics at the UNC School of Medicine and member of the UNC Neuroscience Center. Additionally, we uncovered important biology underlying the genetics of brain disorders, and we think these molecular mechanisms could serve as potential targets for treatment.

Hyejung Won, PhD UNC photo)

Brain disorders such as schizophrenia and Alzheimers disease are among the most burdensome disorders worldwide. But there are few treatment options, largely due to our limited understanding of their genetics and neurobiological mechanisms. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have revolutionized our understanding of the genetic architecture related to many health conditions, including brain-related disorders. GWAS is a technique that allows researchers to compare genetic sequences of individuals with a particular trait such as a disorder to control subjects. Researchers do this by analyzing the genetic sequences of thousands of people.

To date, we know of hundreds of genomic regions associated with a persons risk of developing a disorder, Won said. However, understanding how those genetic variants impact health remained a challenge because the majority of the variants are located in regions of the genome that do not make proteins. They are called non-coding genetic variants. Thus, their specific roles have not been clearly defined.

Prior research suggested that while non-coding variants might not directly encode proteins, they can interact with and regulate gene expression. That is, these variants help regulate how genes create proteins, even though these variants do not directly lead to or code for the creation of proteins.

Given the importance of non-coding variants, and that they make up a large proportion of GWAS findings, we sought to link them to the genes they interact with, using a map of chromatin interaction in the human brain, Won said. Chromatin is the tightly packed structure of DNA and proteins inside cells, folded in the nucleus in a way to maintain normal human health.

Won and colleagues used this map to identify genes and biological principles underlying nine different brain disorders, including psychiatric conditions such as schizophrenia, autism, depression, and bipolar disorder; and neurodegenerative disorders such as Alzheimers, Parkinsons, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), and multiple sclerosis (MS).

Using the computational tool H-MAGMA, Won and colleagues could link non-coding variants to their interacting genes the genes already implicated in previous GWAS findings.

Another important question in brain disorders is to identify cellular etiology the cells involved in the root cause of disease. This is especially critical as the brain is a complex organ with many different cell types that may act differently in response to treatment. In the attempt of finding critical cell types for each brain disorder, the researchers found that genes associated with psychiatric disorders are highly expressed in glutamatergic neurons, whereas genes associated with neurodegenerative disorders are highly expressed in glia, further demonstrating how the two disorder clusters diverge from each other.

Moreover, we classified biological processes central to the disorders, Won said. From this analysis, we found that the generation of new brain cells, transcriptional regulation, and immune response as being essential to many brain disorders.

Won and colleagues also generated a list of shared genes across psychiatric disorders to describe common biological principles that link psychiatric disorders.

Amongst the shared genes, we once again identified the brains early developmental process as being critical and upper layer neurons as being the fundamental cell-types involved, Won said We unveiled the molecular mechanism that underscores how one gene can affect two or more psychiatric diseases.

H-MAGMA is publicly available so that the tool can be widely applicable and available to the genetics and neuroscience community to help expand research, with the ultimate goal of helping people who suffer with brain-related conditions.

The National Institute of Mental Health, the Brain and Behavior Research Foundation, and the Simons Foundation Autism Research Initiative funded this research.

Other authors were Nancy Sey, Benxia Hu, Won Mah, Harper Fauni, Jessica McAfee, all from UNC-Chapel Hill, and Prashanth Rajarajan, Kristen Brennand, and Schahram Akbarian from Mount Sinai Health System.

(C) UNC-Chapel Hill

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New UNC computational tool boosts understanding of genetic disorders affecting the brain - WRAL Tech Wire

Neuroscience

This $20 training bundle can teach you to improve your memory and attention – Android Central

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This $20 training bundle can teach you to improve your memory and attention - Android Central

Neuroscience

In the Developing Brain, There’s More Than One Theory of Mind – Technology Networks

In order to understand what another person thinks and how he or she will behave we must take someone else's perspective. This ability is referred to as Theory of Mind. Until recently, researchers were at odds concerning the age at which children are able to do such perspective taking. Scientists at the Max Planck Institute for Human Cognitive and Brain Sciences (MPI CBS), University College London, and the Social Neuroscience Lab Berlin shed new light on this question in a study now published in the renowned journal PNAS. Only 4-year-olds seem to be able to understand what others think.

The study reports that this unique ability emerges around 4 years of age because of the maturation of a specific brain network which enables this. Younger children are already capable of predicting others' behaviour based on what they think, but the study shows that this prediction of behaviour relies on a different brain network. The brain seems to have two different systems to take another person's perspective, and these mature at different rates.

The researchers investigated these relations in a sample of 3- to 4-year-old children with the help of a video clips that show a cat chasing a mouse. The cat watches the mouse hiding in one of two boxes. While the cat is away the mouse sneaks over to the other box, unnoticed by the cat. Thus, when the cat returns it should still believe that the mouse is in the first location.

This cat-and-mouse game asks the viewer, "Where does the cat look for the mouse?" In the study, only 4-year-olds were able to answer correctly. Credit: MPI CBS

Using eye-tracking technology, the scientists analysed the looking behaviour of their study participants and noticed: Both, the 3- and 4-year-olds expected the cat to go to the box where the mouse had originally been. That is, they predicted correctly where the cat was going to search for the mouse based on the cat's belief.

Interestingly, when the scientists asked the children directly where the cat will search for the mouse, instead of looking at their gaze, 3-year-olds answered incorrectly. Only 4-years-olds succeeded. Control conditions ensured that this was not because the younger children misunderstood the question.

The reason for this discrepancy was a different one. The study shows that different brain structures were involved in verbal reasoning about what the cat thinks as opposed to non-verbal predictions of how the cat is going to act. The researchers refer to these brain structures as regions for implicit and explicit Theory of Mind. These cortical brain regions mature at different ages to fulfill their function. The supramarginal gyrus that supports non-verbal action prediction matures earlier, and is also involved in visual and emotional perspective taking. "This enables younger children to predict how people will act. The temporoparietal junction and precuneus through which we understand what others think - and not just what they feel and see or how they will act - only develops to fulfil this function at the age of 4 years", first author Charlotte Grosse Wiesmann from the MPI CBS explains.

"In the first three years of life, children don't seem to fully understand yet what others think", says co-author Nikolaus Steinbeis from the University College London. "But there already seems to be a mechanism a basic form of perspective taking, by which very young children simply adopt the other's view."

Reference: Wiesmann, C. G., Friederici, A. D., Singer, T., & Steinbeis, N. (2020). Two systems for thinking about others thoughts in the developing brain. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1916725117

This article has been republished from the following materials. Note: material may have been edited for length and content. For further information, please contact the cited source.

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In the Developing Brain, There's More Than One Theory of Mind - Technology Networks

Human Behavior

Algorithms Learn Our Workplace Biases. Can They Help Us Unlearn Them? – The New York Times

Humu uses artificial intelligence to analyze its clients employee satisfaction, company culture, demographics, turnover and other factors, while its signature product, the nudge engine, sends personalized emails to employees suggesting small behavioral changes (those are the nudges) that address identified problems.

One key focus of the nudge engine is diversity and inclusion. Employees at inclusive organizations tend to be more engaged. Engaged employees are happier, and happier employees are more productive and a lot more likely to stay.

With Humu, if data shows that employees arent satisfied with an organizations inclusivity, for example, the engine might prompt a manager to solicit the input of a quieter colleague, while nudging a lower-level employee to speak up during a meeting. The emails are tailored to their recipients, but are coordinated so that the entire organization is gently guided toward the same goal.

Unlike Amazons hiring algorithm, the nudge engine isnt supposed to replace human decision-making. It just suggests alternatives, often so subtly that employees dont even realize theyre changing their behavior.

Jessie Wisdom, another Humu founder and former Google staff member who has a doctorate in behavioral decision research, said sometimes she would hear from people saying, Oh, this is obvious, you didnt need to tell me that.

Even when people may not feel the nudges are helping them, she said, data would show that things have gotten better. Its interesting to see how people perceive what is actually useful, and what the data actually bears out.

In part thats because the nudge doesnt focus on changing minds, said Iris Bohnet, a behavioral economist and professor at the Harvard Kennedy School. It focuses on the system. The behavior is what matters, and the outcome is the same regardless of the reason people give themselves for doing the behavior in the first place.

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Algorithms Learn Our Workplace Biases. Can They Help Us Unlearn Them? - The New York Times

Human Behavior

Why Tennant Stock Tumbled Today – The Motley Fool

What happened

Shares ofTennant(NYSE:TNC) slipped on Monday, falling 10.7% by the time the market finally closed at 4 p.m. EDT. Driving down the industrial cleaning equipment company's stock was a significant sell-off in the stock market.

Today's market plunge, resulting from the COVID-19 outbreak and ahistoric sell-off in oil prices, didn't spare too many stocks. While the S&P 500 closed down 7.6% on the day, many stocks finished even lower, including Tennant.

Image source: Getty Images.

One of the drivers of the decline in the stock market is increasing concerns that the outbreak will cause a global economicrecession. If that happens, companies won't make as much money as expected this year, which makes their stock's less valuable.

In Tennant's case, it initially expected that 2020 would be a good year thanks to its strategic accomplishments in 2019. CEO Chris Killingstad stated in the company's fourth-quarter earnings release that "we are looking ahead with a real sense of excitement and anticipation amid the changes we have set in motion with our new enterprise strategy." That optimism led the company to forecast sales growth of 1.5%-2.5% this year, along with adjusted earnings-per-share growth of about 8% at the midpoint of its outlook.

However, a lot has changed since the company issued that guidance on Feb. 20. With the economy potentially heading into a recession over the outbreak, Tennent's results could come in at or below the low end of its outlook.

The market is pricing in the potential for a recession from the impact of the outbreak. However, it's unclear what impact the epidemic will have on the economy and human behavior. Tennant's stock, along with the rest of the market, might still have some more difficult days ahead.

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Why Tennant Stock Tumbled Today - The Motley Fool

Human Behavior

Prefer tea over coffee? It could be your genes, study finds – CNN

To examine genetic associations with food preferences, researchers from the Riken Center for Integrative Medical Sciences (IMS) and Osaka University in Japan studied the genetic data and food preferences of more than 160,000 people in Japan.

The research, published in the journal Nature Human Behavior, found genetic links for 13 dietary habits including consumption of alcohol, other beverages and foods, and also complex human diseases such as cancer and diabetes.

"We know that what we eat defines what we are, but we found that what we are also defines what we eat," said Yukinori Okada, Senior Visiting Scientist at Riken IMS and professor at Osaka University, in a press release.

This involves grouping thousands of people together depending on whether they have a disease and looking at DNA markers called single nucleotide polymorphisms, or SNPs, which can be used to predict the presence of that disease. If researchers find a SNP that is repeatedly associated with the disease group, they can assume that people with that genetic variation might be at risk for the disease.

Rather than looking at diseases, the Riken team examined dietary habits to find out if there were any markers that made people "at risk" for typically eating certain foods.

The researchers used data of more than 160,000 Japanese people from the BioBank Japan Project, launched in 2003 with a goal to provide evidence for the implementation of personalized medicine. The project collects DNA and clinical information, including items related to participants' lifestyles such as dietary habits, which were recorded through interviews and questionnaires.

They found nine genetic locations that were associated with consuming coffee, tea, alcohol, yogurt, cheese, natto (fermented soy beans), tofu, fish, vegetables and meat.

Variants responsible for the ability to taste bitter flavors were also observed. This association was found among people who liked to eat tofu; while those without the variant consumed less alcohol or none at all.

Those who ate more fish, natto, tofu and vegetables had a genetic variant that made them more sensitive to umami tastes, best described as savory or "meaty" flavors.

The main ingredients of the foods mattered, too -- for example, there were positive genetic correlations between eating yogurt and eating cheese, both milk-based foods.

In order to find whether any of these genetic markers associated with food were also linked with disease, the researchers conducted a phenome study.

The phenome comprises all the possible observable traits of DNA, known as phenotypes. Six of the genetic markers associated with food were also related to at least one disease phenotype, including several types of cancer as well as type 2 diabetes.

Nature vs. nurture: Food edition

Since the research studied only people native to Japan, the same genetic variations associated with food preferences are likely not applicable to populations across the globe. However, similar links have been discovered in different groups.

The study authored by Okada also didn't measure environmental factors. Our environment, demographics, socioeconomic status and culture -- such as whether we eat food from work or home; our age; how much money we make; and what our families eat -- are some of the biggest drivers of our food choices.

"These factors would weigh more than the genetics in some cases," said Dr. Jos Ordovs, director of Nutrition and Genomics at Tufts University in Massachusetts, who was not involved in the study.

"Something that sometimes we have felt is that the nutrition field has been focusing too much on nutrients rather than on foods," Ordovs said.

"Previous studies have been looking at genes that were associating with higher protein intake or higher fat intake or higher carbohydrate intake," Ordovs said. "But this study is more aligned with the fact that people eat foods. They don't just eat proteins, carbohydrates and fats. People tend to eat within a specific pattern."

Further research is needed to explain an exact balance between genetic predisposition and volition when it comes to food choices in different groups of people, but Okada suggests that by "estimating individual differences in dietary habits from genetics, especially the 'risk' of being an alcohol drinker, we can help create a healthier society."

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Prefer tea over coffee? It could be your genes, study finds - CNN

Human Behavior

Guest Views: The barnstorming coronavirus humbles humans: We only think we’re in charge – Gazettextra

We walk the Earths crust, we erect vast cities, we boast of our achievements. We see ourselves as the mistresses and masters of our fate. Yet as John Lennon and other writers before him bluntly warned, life is what happens while were busy making plans.

The little living form that now roils humanity is a virus, one among millions of infectious agents that roam this planet. As the coronavirus claims rising numbers of lives, we humans see ourselves as under siege: Like its kin, this virus is without discrimination in selecting its victims; great wealth has its privileges, but immunity from epidemics isnt one of them.

Thus does nature once again remind us whos boss. And thus must todays only human species, homo sapiens, live up to its name: in Latin, wise man. Wisdom should dictate that we best survive natures anomalous moments when we look out for one anotherwhen our actions and precautions protect the common good. More succinctly, either we humans hang together or well hang alone.

All the sanitizers ever manufactured cannot isolate us from a pathogen that blithely travels among us, shrewdly dodging eradication while often stopping to replicate. We can, though, diminish this virus impact on a club with 8 billion members via the choices each of us makes one by one: Every handshake that instead becomes a bow or a fist bump, every cough thats buried inside an elbow, every food surface thats routinely wiped clean, demonstrates one more personal commitment to everyone elses health.

Think of coronavirus, then, not only as a nascent threat to human respiration but also as the latest eruption of nature that demands our urgent attention. Such eruptions, many of them terrifying, are always with us. Consider, for one example, the earthquake, a routine and sometimes devastating force. If you enrolled in Geology 101, chances are the prof quoted a maxim of early 20th century historian-philosopher Will Durant: Civilization exists by geological consent, subject to change without notice.

Nature relentlessly pummels us with these lethal challenges. We can debate whether the Great Chicago Fire was of human or bovine origin, but it could occur only because warm, dry weather severely dehydrated the American Midwest in October 1871.

Human behavior is shaping modern climate extremes. But by natures patient clock, such anomalies have been occurring for eons. Tornadoes and floods may shock us, but they shouldnt surprise us. Its because our human clocks run faster that we label as extraordinary whatever new-to-us event nature delivers during our brief time here.

In the category of health pandemics, the Spanish flu of 1918-19 has become todays go-to comparison for the still spreading coronavirus. In a time of comparatively little mobility, that century-ago disease took half a year to travel the globe. It infected one-third of the worlds population, or some 500 million people. It killed perhaps 50 million, maybe 100 million. Nobody knows with any certainty. And within 18 months, Spanish flu disappeared as inexplicably as it had appeared.

We have no idea what todays coronavirus has in store for us. Modern sanitation practices are more protective than those of a century ago, yet our world also is more densely settled. And even if a vaccine or other intervention thwarts todays virus, in time another will come along to menace us.

In our relative frailty, we humans are better suited to respect and try to adapt to natures assaults than we ever will be to eliminate them. Respect, and then do what we can to limit their spread and treat their victims.

The mundane precautions we take to protect ourselves and one another against coronavirus arent fail-safe. They do, though, give us todays best chance of surviving one more of natures perennial reminders: Were the Earths stewards, its temporary tenants. But we dont run the place.

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Guest Views: The barnstorming coronavirus humbles humans: We only think we're in charge - Gazettextra

Human Behavior

Three fatal hit-and-runs in three months on Sunset Boulevard have authorities seeking suspects and solutions – The Eastsider LA

Echo Park - Three fatal hit-and-runs in three months, all within a half-mile of each other along Sunset Boulevard. Thats a lot.

While the city studies whether to install another traffic or pedestrian crossing signal to improve safety, the officers investigating the incidents between Douglas Street and While Knoll Drive are mainly focused on one problem: Human error.

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"Its nothing [to do] with engineering issues, said Juan Campos, a detective with the LAPD Central Traffic Division, who is investigating one of the cases and overseeing the other two. "Its all about human behavior."

Campos was referring specifically to the most recent accident, the pedestrian death on Sunset near White Knoll Drive on the border of Echo Park and Victor Heights.

A study has been requested to look at traffic accident near Sunset and White Knoll, according to Conrado Terrazas Cross, communications director for Council District 1. But he, too, emphasized the human factors in the area - the speeding, the jaywalking.

"Its just really dangerous out there," Cross said. "Even though you have the right as a pedestrian, a car will still kill you."

In the three incidents, Campos noted the factors that led to the collisions:

Jos Vaquero-Gonzalez, age 60, was crossing the street on Dec. 1 when he was hit by a dark blue car.

Google Maps

Jos Vaquero-Gonzalez, age 60, was crossing Sunset at about 5:20 a.m. when he was hit by a dark blue car - possibly a Honda or Hyundai - and died at the scene.

Campos noted that the car had the green traffic light, and that the pedestrian was crossing outside the crosswalk, against the Dont Walk signal.

"Our theory was that he was trying to catch a bus," Campos said. He added that the pedestrian seemed to be at fault in this case.

The motorist remains at large. Anyone with information is asked to the call the LAPD Central Traffic Division detectives at (213) 833-3713.

Rosa Garcia, age 61, was killed when her 2004 Toyota Corolla was hit head-on on Jan. 24 by a 2019 BMW M4, which had allegedly been stolen.

Google Maps

Rosa Garcia, age 61, was killed when her 2004 Toyota Corolla was hit head-on by a 2019 BMW M4, which had allegedly been stolen.

The BMW driver - Ilya Foks - left the scene on foot, but was photographed as he fled, and had left behind his wallet and driver license.

He was arrested a few days later near the 8300 block of Sepulveda Boulevard and was booked on suspicion of Vehicular Manslaughter. He is currently awaiting a preliminary hearing, Campos said.

The problem here seems to have been speeding.

The speed limit for that stretch is already a mild 35-miles-an-hour. But witnesses said Foks seemed to have been driving at around 50, Campos said.

At a slight curve, he lost control of the car and went into Garcias lane.

Morena Del Carmen Alvarado-Lopez, age 58, was killed, and her 71-year-old husband was injured when they were struck by a burgundy or red four-door passenger vehicle on Feb. 24.

Google Maps

Morena Del Carmen Alvarado-Lopez, age 58, was killed, and her 71-year-old husband was injured when they were struck by a burgundy or red four-door passenger vehicle at about 12:50 a.m. as they were leaving the Club Bahia nightclub.

They were dragged about 50 feet before they were dislodged from the car. There is no further description of the car, or further updates on the case, Campos said.

In this case, Campos noted that the area was well lit, with all the overhead lights on. The pedestrians crossed mid-block instead of at the corner. Campos noted that the driver did not seem to see the pedestrians, but then fled the scene.

The motorist remains at large. Anyone with information is asked to the call the LAPD Central Traffic Division detectives at (213) 833-3713.

Conrado Terrazas Cross added that a traffic study currently underway could be a step toward eventually getting a stoplight or at least a flashing HAWK beacon for that area.

Sidewalk memorial for Rosa Garcia on Sunset Boulevard near Douglas in Echo Park

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Three fatal hit-and-runs in three months on Sunset Boulevard have authorities seeking suspects and solutions - The Eastsider LA

Human Behavior

Many dogs are prone to anxiety, study finds – Medical News Today

Research assessing the behavior of dog breeds common in Finland has found that a significant proportion of our canine best friends live with some form of anxiety.

According to recent statistical reports, as many as 89.7 million dogs provided companionship to their human friends in the United States in 2017, the latest year for which data are available.

Dogs are some of the most popular pets around the world, and no wonder. Anecdotally, they are loyal, loving friends and a constant source of boundless affection and good fun.

Yet, much like humans, our canine pals can also face troubles such as stress and anxiety.

In fact, according to a new study from the University of Helsinki in Finland, dogs are particularly prone to a wide range of anxiety-like traits.

In the recent study, first author Milla Salonen and her colleagues analyzed the behaviors that 13,715 pet dogs from Finland belonging to 264 different breeds exhibited. Their findings appear in Scientific Reports.

The researchers asked the dogs owners to fill in questionnaires surveying behaviors that related to seven anxiety-related traits. These were noise sensitivity, general fear, fear of surfaces, impulsivity or lack of attention, compulsive behaviors, aggression, and behaviors relating to separation anxiety.

By looking at the survey data, the investigators found that 72.5% of the dogs expressed anxiety-like behaviors, according to their owners.

Of the total number of dogs, 32% had noise sensitivity, meaning that they were frightened of at least one noise. Among noise-sensitive dogs, the most common fear was that of sounds associated with fireworks this fear had a prevalence of 26%, the researchers write.

General fearfulness affected 29% of the dogs in the study. Specifically, 17% of dogs showed fear of other dogs, 15% fear of strangers, and 11% fear of novel situations, the authors write.

The least common anxious behaviors, according to the surveys, were separation-related behaviors, which affected 5% of dogs, and aggression, which owners reported in 14% of dogs.

Some anxiety-like behaviors, the researchers also found, seem to become more pronounced as dogs age. These include noise sensitivity especially being frightened of thunder as well as fear of heights and anxiety around walking on certain types of surfaces, such as metal grids.

However, judging by their owners reports, younger dogs were more likely to have problematic behaviors relating to separation anxiety, such as urinating on the floor or damaging furniture.

Younger dogs also appeared to be more likely than older canines to be impulsive.

There were also differences between the two biological sexes, with males being more likely to show aggression and signs of impulsivity and females having a higher tendency to display fear.

Different dog breeds were also likely to display different types of anxiety-related behaviors.

The researchers stated that much in accordance with what previous studies have suggested Lagotto Romagnolos, Wheaten terriers, and mixed breed dogs had the highest prevalence of noise sensitivity, while miniature schnauzers and Staffordshire bull terriers were less sensitive to noises.

Spanish water dogs, Shetland sheepdogs, and mixed breed dogs were the canines in which fearfulness was most common. More specifically, fear of surfaces and fear of heights were most prevalent in rough collie and mixed breed dogs.

Large breeds and small breeds also differed in terms of anxiety-like behaviors. For example, among the miniature schnauzers in this study, 10.6% showed aggression toward strangers, compared with only 0.4% of Labrador retrievers.

But why are such anxious behaviors so common in dogs? The researchers cannot say for sure, but they hypothesize that the dogs genetic makeup may have something to do with their predisposition to different types of anxiety.

Behavior has a major genetic component, they write, adding that [s]ome genomic areas and loci are associated with problematic behavior, including compulsion, fear, and noise sensitivity.

Yet they note that environmental factors, such as the training that dogs receive, most likely interact with genetic predispositions, leading to or suppressing certain behaviors.

As anxiety can impair welfare, and problematic behavior may be an indication of poor welfare, efforts should be made to decrease the prevalence of these canine anxieties, the researchers point out in their study paper. They go on to suggest that:

Breeding policies may help to improve dog welfare, as could changes in the living environment.

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Many dogs are prone to anxiety, study finds - Medical News Today

Human Behavior

Why Is The Stock Market Slipping? – TheStreet

On February 19 it looked like the stock market would break a new ceiling. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was headed to 30,000 and nothing could stand in its way.

Then the coronavirus stood in its way.

Over one week of trading, between February 21 and February 28, the market lost 3,500 points. Since then stocks have rallied and slipped depending largely on the day of the week. On two separate days (Thursday, Feb. 27 and Thursday, March 5) the market posted its largest single-day losses since the Great Recession. The question is why?

The connection between COVID-19 and stock market prices is not immediately obvious. The industries most likely to suffer, such as airlines and hospitality, will almost certainly bounce back once the crisis has passed. Others have little, if any, apparent connection to infectious disease. Consumers arent immediately likely to need fewer computers or drink less orange juice in the wake of the coronavirus. Yet traders have sold those stocks anyway, unloading them at bargain-bin prices.

This happens. Sometimes.

A major crisis can have unpredictable effects on the stock market. Sometimes traders shrug off the event like it never happened. When Hurricanes Katrina and Maria made landfall in 2005 and 2018, respectively, the stock market largely didnt notice. On the other hand, shortly after the 2010 earthquake in Haiti the S&P 500 lost 6.6% of its value, and the attacks on September 11, 2001 led to a 11.6% decrease.

At times, the market seems to ignore the headlines. Other times it seems to react with fear and panic, surging money out of stocks and into safe assets. Behind this unpredictability, often enough, is fear. Fear of unpredictability; fear of changing fundamentals; and, perhaps more than anything else, simple human fear for personal safety.

Its about uncertainty, said Randy Frederick, Vice President of Trading and Derivatives at Charles SchwabCorporation(SCHW) - Get Report. Its about not knowing.

In a broad, general sense, its that human nature is such that when were surprised by anything that we didnt expect, our natural reaction is to react in a negative fashion. When something happens, and it can be anything really, our natural reaction is to hit the sell button The coronavirus may or may not be any more dangerous, any more contagious, than the common flu, but its new,Frederick said.

Investors, especially the professional and institutional investors who hold most of the stock markets assets, try to trade on certainties. They rarely like to gamble, instead preferring to move based on a sense that they know where the market is going and how it will get there. This is why firms invest so much money in technical analysis. Modern traders work with numbers, assessing risk and reward based on enormous amounts of data.

Uncertainty undermines all of this.

When natural or political disasters strike, they create questions. Will supply chains remain stable and predictable? Will consumers still go out and spend money, or will they have jobs at all? Will lending tighten up? How will this affect property values and, as a result, the investments of both individuals and lending institutions? Economic conditions that, before, had been relatively well known suddenly become unclear.

In turn, that can make any investment position far less clear than it was before.

Why do we buy stocks? said Frederick. We buy stocks on the prospect that the company will be profitable, and more specifically that it will be profitable in the future. If the coronavirus keeps people out of restaurants and out of stores where they might buy a brand of soda, its possible that companys stock will go down over the next quarter, so maybe I dont want to hold that stock anymore.

Thats the rational for any stock. You look at the prospects for the future and, if youre optimistic, you own the stock.

Uncertainty in a stock is measured by what investors call volatility. High volatility means that traders just dont know whats going to happen. Prices could go up or down; the only confidence they have is that something will probably change.

Volatility means movement, said Lubos Pastor, a professor with the University of Chicagos Booth School of Business. It does not mean movement up, or movement down. It means movement in both directions, and I think the last three or four days are a perfect example of that.

In times of high volatility investors tend to look for one of two things: more safety, or more rewards. Its a trading metric called the discount rate; how much do they discount the present value of the stock based on the risks of holding it. That discount rate drives risk premiums, how much return do investors want in order to hold what they now consider to be a riskier asset?

Basically in times of trouble people tend to apply higher discount rates [when they] value stocks, Lubos said. Its a combination of two things. One is our attitudes toward risk, and the other is our perception of risk. The perception of risk is now higher. We now perceive stocks to be riskier than before because we just dont know how stocks are going to play out.

As to changes in attitude toward risk, Lubos said, people often become more risk averse when they hear about major things like a virus.

When the stock market falls in the wake of a political event or natural disaster, it reflects simple uncertainty on the part of traders. They dont feel like they know whats going to happen next, so they change their risk/reward calculations. Stocks that made sense previously no longer meet the new discount rates that firms apply to their position.

This is part of whats going on.

Its not that bloodless though. At the same time as investors run the new reality through their models and numbers, theyre also human beings. They tend to react just as emotionally as anyone else when frightened.

You have to think about human behavior, said Mark Hamrick, senior economic advisor with Bankrate.We tend to think that a lot of this is scientific, and the scientific piece is the sort of unknowable role that algorithms and machines play But with respect to where human behavior is involved, we know that its not an exaggeration to say that fear and greed help to drive a fair amount of market activity.

Here we are with what is truly the textbook example of a black swan, which ultimately is an event that was not largely expected and certainly wasnt on the radar screens for anyones stock forecasts for 2020, Hamrick said. Ultimately, its an emotional response. I think that those of us that do step back from all of this try to remind ourselves, this too shall pass.

Investors get scared when a new virus appears. They get scared when a hurricane flattens communities, when an earthquake shakes apart buildings or when a terrorist attack threatens their homes. Ultimately, even more than the technical analysis of risk vs. reward, short term positions vs. long, this may be the clearest explanation for why the stock market dips and when.

Like the rest of us, traders seek safety when theyre afraid.

Read more:
Why Is The Stock Market Slipping? - TheStreet