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Human Behavior

Experts warn that human environmental impacts increase the likelihood of a pandemic – gotech daily

About two-thirds of all human infections are of animal origin. Scientists say that the ability of a virus to mutate and adapt from an animal to a human system is very rare, but the spread of human footprints makes that rare event much more likely.

For most people, the possibility of a new disease appearing out of nowhere and raging around the world seemed like a science fiction movie until the novel Coronavirus hijacked the headlines. However, some members of the scientific community have been sounding alarms for decades, warning that it is not a problem and another pandemic will threaten humanity.

Why were scientists convinced that the pandemic situation was ripe? CBS News spoke with three experts to better understand how human behavior is making such developments possible more than ever.

Coronavirus: Corresponding Competition

More Coronaviruses: Competition to Respond

The simple answer is that scientists speculate that the virus has an origin in bats, but they do not know exactly how it reached humans. Despite years of working on virus cataloging, they have never seen this particular virus before.

It is clear that SARS-CoV-2 is a bat-origin virus. The closest relative is a virus found in horseshoe bats in southern China in 2013, which is 96.2% genetically identical to SARS-CoV-2. , Said Dr. . Peter Daszak, professor at Columbia University and chairman of the EcoHealth Alliance.

Surprisingly, scientists have been actively searching for viruses around the world for decades and have discovered thousands of new viruses in thousands of wildlife hosts. I havent found it, said disease ecologist Dr. Richard Ostfeld. From the Cary Ecosystem Research Institute in Hudson Valley, New York.

How did the virus infect humans from bats? Daszak says there are various ways that can happen. People can be directly exposed to bat fluids and feces by cave, hunting, killing, or slaughtering bats, or simply through contaminated surfaces or the food and drink of people living in rural China. There is. Alternatively, other animals can serve as intermediate hosts, through farmed wildlife or possibly livestock species.

How do environmental destruction and animal treatment contribute to the spread of diseases such as coronavirus? Im invading a new system, @ProfKateJones tells @WeatherProf https://t.co/OCSnRLO7OG pic.twitter.com/WG997kRibm

CBS News [@CBSNews] April 2, 2020

Some evidence suggests that the first population of human cases could have been present in one or more animals brought to the Wuhan wet market where the case was detected, Ostfeld said. It is explained.

Whats clear is that Professor Kate Jones, a professor of ecology and biodiversity at University College London, said the virus had to transform to jump from an animal host to a human host. That is.

Most wildlife diseases remain in wildlife, but they can mutate in ways that can jump over species barriers. Its an incredibly rare event! She told CBS News Was.

In the last 40 years, forests have been destroyed worldwide in Europe-scale regions, and in the last century half of the worlds rainforests have been destroyed.

Accomplice: Amazon Fire

Were changing landscapes and penetrating systems on an unprecedented scale, says Jones, the human destruction of natural landscapes changing the interaction between animals and humans, He explained that the dynamics of transmission could also change.

We destroy their ecosystems, hunt them, build houses next to them, and raise livestock next to them Dazak said. We are bringing the virus they have, which has never been exposed in our history, to our own population.

Daszak and his team analyze all known emerging diseases that have occurred in the past 60 years, assess their most likely cause, and are taking place where they may have caused the pandemic outbreak Analyzed the change. Our analysis shows that land-use change, that is, the transformation of tropical forests into farmland and livestock farms, is associated with about 30% of known emerging diseases, Dazak said.

There are many reasons why this disruption of natural habitats can contribute to disease spread. Perhaps most obvious is that habitat disturbances can move animals farther and take pathogens, explains Ostfeld, destroying and degrading habitats in these animal hosts. Spreading reduces health, reduces immunity, and allows pathogens.

The growing demand for durian fruits in China is due to the deforestation wave in Malaysia, where the jungle is cleared in 2018 to give way to such a large plantation near Kuala Lumpur.

MO MOHD RASFAN / AFP via Getty Images

Another factor is that the destruction of biodiversity disrupts the balance between predators and prey. When predators disappear, they often increase their prey, including rats and mice. Rats and mice cause many pathogens to jump from wildlife to humans, Ostfeld said.

Anthropogenic climate change exacerbates the situation by moving animal populations to different regions and reducing animal health through reduced habitat coverage and less than ideal habitat climatic conditions There is a possibility.

With 7.8 billion people living on earth, there is a great demand for food and other products and animals as exotic pets. However, there are significant risks to how animals are captured, transported, contained and killed in different parts of the world.

Both wet markets and wildlife trade are associated with species proliferation and epidemics, Ostfeld said. These animals are snatched from their natural habitat and transported around wild, livestock and other crowded animals.

If you were a virus, you would be very happy in this situation, as jumping to a new host is an easy thing, opening up tremendous opportunities for infection and further infection, he said. .

Coronavirus may come from Wuhan market

Jones is also concerned about land reclamation and the rise of large factory farms. We now have huge and intensive farms of domestic species that interact with wildlife, and those wildlife may function as amplification hosts for many pathogens. Said Jones.

If these animals are raised in unsanitary conditions with many other species, they can create the ideal conditions for these pathogens to jump into us, Ostfeld said. Added.

Mankind has unfortunately learned how dangerous and destructive pandemic viruses can be, but the question is, do we learn from this experience, change our way and take protective measures?

Dazak has a three-point plan that could help minimize future threats.

First, we propose to launch a global effort to identify wildlife viruses that are likely to emerge in the future. We estimate that there are 1.7 million of them, and the overwhelming majority [> 70%] could be found in the Global Virus Project, which costs $ 120 million in 10 years, he said. He has already created a 501c3 non-profit to fund the project.

Second, work with a community of emerging disease hotspots at the forefront. Identify risk behaviors for viruses spilling from wildlife to human populations, and work with these communities to reduce risk, test for evidence of the virus, and stop early-breaking outbreaks.

Finally, he is focusing on developing vaccines to prevent not only the diseases we already know, but also new viruses found in wildlife. Ideally, Daszak wants to see a universal coronavirus vaccine to protect against the whole family of viruses.

Ostfeld hopes that the amount of protected land will be significantly increased to help natural areas maintain their ability to protect us from infectious diseases. He also supports funding scientists working on the issue of how to use already developed areas to provide the food, fiber and other resources people need .

Habitat destruction and climate change pose countless threats to our health and well-being. Its not just viruses, explains Ostfeld. We continue with these disruptive practices because we prioritize short-term benefits for a relatively small number of us and ignore the long-term suffering of all the rest of us. It is not impossible to change this miscalculation, but we have the time to do it infinitely.

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Experts warn that human environmental impacts increase the likelihood of a pandemic - gotech daily

Human Behavior

Andrew Cuomo Answers the Biggest Question Everyone Has About the Coronavirus Lockdown: ‘When is it Over?’ WATCH – Towleroad

During his daily coronavirus press briefing, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo answered the question that is most on the publics mind: when is it over?

Said Cuomo: I have this conversation 100 times a day. When is it over? And its a difficult conversation because people want it to be over so badly, right? I want the fear to stop, I want the anxiety to stop. I dont want to have to worry about my brother anymore, I dont want to have to worry about my daughters, I dont want to have to worry about my mother. I want it over. I want to get out of the house. I want to get back to normalcy. Ive been living in this weird, disorienting, frightening place. Im afraid to touch people. It violates human behavior and needs. When is it over?

Its not going to be we flick a switch and everybody comes out of their house and gets in their car and waves and hugs each other, and the economy all starts up, he continued. I would love to say thats going to happen. It is not going to happen that way. It cant happen that way.

Cuomo said that its going to happen differently in places depending on the level of risk and infection.

Is it going to happen in any community that has a significant issue? No, he said. There is going to be no epiphany. There is going to be no morning where the headline says hallelujah, it is over. Thats not going to happen.

What will happen is there will be points of resolution, he added. Therell be points we can say we accomplished something. We should feel better. We should feel more calm. We should feel more relaxed, and it will be incremental.

He did offer some good news: We are controlling the spread. Were past that. If you isolate, if you take the precautions, your family wont get infected. Feel good about that. The worst is over. If we continue to be smart going forward. It has not overwhelmed the health care system. We have controlled he spread.

But Cuomo said that it will really be over once we have a vaccine, but not until then.

JUST IN: "Yes, I think you can say the worst is over," New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo says. "It has not overwhelmed the health care system. We have controlled he spread."

Cuomo also cautioned: "The worst is overif we continue to be smart." https://t.co/GEAnVQkoHa pic.twitter.com/9QtZ7v0LeJ

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Andrew Cuomo Answers the Biggest Question Everyone Has About the Coronavirus Lockdown: 'When is it Over?' WATCH - Towleroad

Human Behavior

Leading with the Unknowns in COVID-19 Models – Scientific American

As the U.S. tops the chart on COVID-19 cases and growth rate, the theme of regret is ubiquitous in the media. Lost time that could have been spent enacting more stringent distancing measures weighs on the minds of many leaders and citizens. As a researcher in uncertainty visualization, I fear a different sort of regret from our response to COVID-19.

Many visualizations, including variations on the widely distributed Flatten the Curve graph represent estimates produced by models. These models simulate the number of people who would be infected, require hospitalization, or die under different conditions. Flatten the Curve adapts a visualization first presented by the CDC in 2007 to compare such estimates under different levels and durations of social distancing. The author added a dotted line to represent his estimate of the number of available hospital beds in the country.

It is easy to perceive the predictions of cases and deaths from simulations as complete depictions of what we can expect based on what we know. For one thing, these models take in multiple streams of available data: on COVID-19 cases, deaths, and rates of hospitalization; on how quickly COVID-19 spread under different conditions elsewhere in the world; and on how related viruses have spread in the past, to name a few.

Model results are powerful, because from them we can calculate risks. For example, How much more likely is it that our death rate reaches 10 percent of cases, as it has in Italy, under distancing measures? How likely is it that the virus will peak in two to three weeks? By quantifying unknowns, estimates of risks make clear that what will happen is not completely certain, but can nonetheless empower us to make decisions and weigh trade-offs.

What worries me as an expert in reasoning under uncertainty is a more difficult type of uncertainty: the uncertainty that arises from the many unknowns underlying COVID-19 data and models. We cant easily quantify this uncertainty, and it is easy to overlook, since it is not conveyed by model estimates alone.

One form of unquantifiable uncertainty stems from our limited ability to estimate how accurate the data that is input to these models is. Available data on COVID-19 case counts are likely to be unreliable as a result of large differences in the scale of testing in different locations, combined with inconsistencies in how testing is applied in a single location. This leads to case number comparisons of apples to oranges. A larger number of cases in one place, or even a higher rate of cases per capita, does not necessarily equate to a higher risk. More likely, it means health providers are testing more broadly in that location. Until we implement more comprehensive, nonselective testing, we cant quantify exactly how at risk of bias these data are.

Data on deaths from COVID-19 are likely to be more reliable, but may still be far from perfect. For example, it may be difficult to trace whether COVID-19 or another preexisting condition caused death in the elderly. Community decision-makers may also be incentivized to underreport deaths to avoid spreading panic or crippling a local economy.

A second form of unquantifiable uncertainty stems from the fact that models are often gross simplifications of real world situations. Many of the models being used to forecast our future under COVID-19 make strong assumptions that seem contradicted by what we expect in reality. Models vary in the assumptions they make about the mechanism behind disease transmission. Some approaches focus on fitting curves to available data rather than assuming mechanisms that account for realities like incubation periods and immunity after infection.

Others account for these dynamics, but make strong assumptions about the predictability of human behavior in the face of a crisis. Sometimes called ambiguity, non-numerical uncertainty like the unquantifiable inexactness of a model as a stand-in for reality means that our predictions could be off, by a little or by a lot depending on how flawed the model assumptions were. All models are wrong, but some are useful, said George Box, a statistician, reminding us of the tension between understanding models as tools for thinking versus expecting models to be oracles. Unfortunately, a careful critique of model assumptions, like other forthright presentations of uncertainty,, rarely makes it into the public-facing articles or visualizations used to present the results.

It is especially easy to overlook the strength of the assumptions models make because their predictions can seem comprehensive. Rather than producing a single number like a count, a model typically produces a set of predicted outcomes. Flatten the Curve, for example, shows two areas representing case counts over time: if we enact protective measures, and if we dont. A predicted number of infections is shown for each day after the first confirmed case.

Even when quantifiable uncertainty associated with the model predictions is not shownin this case, we do not see other values that the predicted case counts by day could take under the model assumptions--visualizations like Flatten the Curve can imply completeness through the series of predictions they produce. For many, seeing a graphical depiction of distributions of possibilities over time or space may seem like the epitome of scientific carefulness. Behind the seemingly precise visuals, however, are a number of approximations.

Does the presence of uncertainty make the extreme social distancing measures being enacted in many states an overreaction? Not necessarily. In the absence of good estimates of risk, it is rational to guard against worst case outcomes. Its the best we can do, until we get better data.

What is dangerous is if we fail to recognize the difference between model predictions made now based on limited information and strong assumptions, and more reliable data that will emerge over time as the virus plays out. If early model predictions turn out to overestimate COVID-19 deaths or the risk to our health system, or underestimate it by a significant amount, many may blame the scientists for being wrong. They may trust data-driven estimates less in the future.

Clear presentation of uncertainty can make model estimates seem less reassuring, but can prevent people from blaming the forecaster or the scientific enterprise itself, when, as we should expect, the model is wrong. Trading public trust in science in the future is not worth feeling more assured in the short term, no matter how much we seek to eliminate uncertainty.

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Leading with the Unknowns in COVID-19 Models - Scientific American

Human Behavior

Introducing New Levels of Transparency with AI – Thought Leaders – Unite.AI

By Balakrishna D R, Senior Vice President, Service Offering Head Energy, Communications, Services, and AI and Automation services, at Infosys.

On January 9, 2020, the World Health Organization notified the public ofthe Coronavirus outbreak in China. Three days prior, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had gotten the word out. But it was a Canadian health monitoring platform that had beaten them both to the punch, sending word of the outbreak to its customers as early as on December 31, 2019! The platform, BlueDot uses artificial intelligence-driven algorithms that scours foreign-language news reports, animal and plant disease networks, and official proclamations to give its clients advance warning to avoid danger zones like Wuhan.

Over the past few years, artificial intelligence has become the key source of transformation, disruption and competitive advantage in todays fast changing economy. From epidemic tracking to defense to healthcare to autonomous vehicles and everything in between, AI is gaining widespread adoption. PwC predicts that AI could contribute up to $15.7 trillion to the global economy in 2030, at its current growth rate.

Yet, for all the hope that AI brings, it still poses unanswered questions around transparency and trustworthiness. The need to understand, predict and trust the decision-making ability of AI systems is important particularly in areas that are critical to life, death, and personal wellness.

Into the unknown

When automated reasoning systems were first introduced to support decision-making, they relied on hand-crafted rules. While this made it easy to interpret as well as modify their behavior, they were not scalable. Machine learning based models arrived to address the latter need; they did not require human intervention and could train from data the more the better. While deep learning models are unsurpassed in their modelling capacity and scope of applicability, the fact that these models are black boxes for the most part, raises disturbing questions regarding their veracity, trustworthiness and biases in the context of their wide usage.

There is currently no direct mechanism to trace the reasoning implicitly used by deep learning models. With machine learning models that have a black-box nature, the primary kind of explainability is known as post-hoc explainability, implying that the explanations are derived from the nature and properties of the outputs generated by the model. Early attempts to extract rules from neural networks (as deep learning was earlier known) are not currently pursued since the networks have become too large and diverse for tractable rule extraction. There is, therefore, an urgent need to introduce interpretability and transparency into the very fabric of AI modelling.

Exit night, enter light

This concern has created a need for transparency in machine learning, which has led to the growth of explainable AI, or XAI.It seeks to address the major issues that hinder our ability to fully trust AI decision-making including bias and transparency. This new field of AI brings accountability to ensure that AI benefits society with better outcomes for all involved.

XAI will be critical in helping with the bias inherent to AI systems and algorithms, which are programmed by people whose backgrounds and experiences unintentionally lead to the development of AI systems that exhibit bias. Unwanted biases such as discrimination against a particular nationality or ethnicity may creep in because the system adds a value to it based on real data. To illustrate, it may be found that typical loan defaulters come from a particular ethnic background, however, implementing any restrictive policy based on this may be against fair practices. Erroneous data is another cause of bias. Example, if a particular face recognition scanner is inaccurate 5% of the time because of the complexion of the person or the light falling on the face, it could bring in bias. Lastly, if your sample data isnt a true representation of the whole population, bias is inevitable.

XAI aims to address how black box decisions of AI systems are arrived at. It inspects and tries to understand the steps and models involved in making decisions. It answers crucial questions such as: Why did the AI system make a specific prediction or decision? Why didnt the AI system do something else? When did the AI system succeed or fail? When do AI systems give enough confidence in the decision that you can trust it, and how can the AI system correct errors?

Explainable, predictable and traceable AI

One way to gain explainability in AI systemsis to use machine learning algorithms that are inherently explainable. For example, simpler forms of machine learning such as decision trees, Bayesian classifiers, and other algorithms that have certain amounts of traceability and transparency in their decision making. They can provide the visibility needed for critical AI systems without sacrificing too much performance or accuracy.

Noticing the need to provide explainability for deep learning and other more complex algorithmic approaches, the US Defense Advanced Research Project Agency (DARPA) is pursuing efforts to produce explainable AI solutions through a number of funded research initiatives. DARPA describes AI explainability in three parts which include: prediction accuracy, which means models will explain how conclusions are reached to improve future decision making; decision understanding and trust from human users and operators, as well as inspection and traceability of actions undertaken by the AI systems.

Traceability will empower humans to get into AI decision loops and have the ability to stop, or, control its tasks, whenever need arises. An AI system is not only expected to perform a certain task or impose decisions, but also provide a transparent report of why it took specific decisions with the supporting rationale.

Standardization of algorithms or even XAI approaches isnt currently possible, but it might certainly be possible to standardize levels of transparency / levels of explainability. Standards organizations are trying to arrive at common, standard understandings of these levels of transparency to facilitate communication between end users and technology vendors.

As governments, institutions, enterprises and the general public come to depend on AI-based systems, winning their trust through clearer transparency of the decision-making process is going to be fundamental. The launch of the first global conference exclusively dedicated to XAI, the International Joint Conference on artificial intelligence: Workshop on Explainable Artificial Intelligence, is further proof that the age of XAI has come.

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Introducing New Levels of Transparency with AI - Thought Leaders - Unite.AI

Human Behavior

Slowing the Spread: Social distancing is working even as coronavirus case counts continue increasing – Milwaukee Independent

The last few weeks have brought previously unimaginable changes to the lives of people throughout the United States. Americans everywhere are waking up to a new reality in which they cannot go to work or school outside the home and they have to stay six feet away from others. More than 80% of Americans are under such stay-at-home orders.

People are also seeing charts in the news showing rapidly increasing case counts. This is likely to continue to occur. The United States surpassed Italy and China to have the most confirmed cases of any country. Americans might begin to wonder if these social distancing measures are working if the case numbers keep climbing. The problem is that the number of reported cases is not the same as the number of people who are infected.

It takes time for people to develop symptoms, seek treatment and get tested and for the results to come back. So the effects of social distancing might not be obvious from the numbers for a while. As an epidemiologist at the University of Michigan, I can assure you that staying at home is one of the most effective ways to slow the spread of COVID-19.

A key reason for the delay between people severely restricting their movements and a drop in the number of new cases is that COVID-19 can have a long incubation period, the time between getting infected and becoming sick. The average incubation period is around 5 days, but it can be as long as 14 days or more. This means that a person infected before a stay-at-home order might not get diagnosed until days later.

Testing for COVID-19

Testing is another factor in the delay between the start of social distancing and seeing the results. Many Americans do not even know if they have been infected with the new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. Though the United States is finally ramping up production of test kits in federal, state and private laboratories, there are stringent criteria on who can get tested. Testing is mostly limited to people with symptoms, frontline health care workers and first responders, and older people. However, scientists have found asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic transmission of COVID-19.

Asymptomatic spread has probably contributed to the explosive growth of COVID-19 in the United States. Overall, as restrictions on testing ease, case counts are going to rise because more people, including those with mild or no illness, will be able to get tested.

Finally, it is important to note that current COVID-19 tests take 24 to 72 hours to generate a result. Even in China, where testing is widely available, the average time from the onset of symptoms to a diagnosis of COVID-19 is five days. It takes one to three days to get test results because the tests discover whether the viruss genetic material is present inside a patients body. This requires replicating the viruss genome using specialized laboratory equipment. Scientists are developing tests that look for telltale signs of the patients immune system response to virus, and these blood tests should provide quicker results.

Believing can help make it so

Unfortunately, people will, for the next few weeks, see increasing case counts even as they might be rigorously complying with government directives to avoid contact with other people. The lag time in reporting cases could make people feel that the actions theyre taking staying at home and limiting in-person social interactions arent working.

When people think that what they do works, they are more likely to do it, a concept known as self-efficacy. It turns out to be an important predictor of human behavior. For example, people who expect to be able to quit smoking are more likely to quit. As self-efficacy diminishes, people could become less motivated and relax their adherence to stay-at-home orders.

Experience from previous pandemics in the 21st century shows that peoples behaviors and attitudes change over the course of the outbreak. As the 2009 H1N1 pandemic progressed, people became less likely to want a vaccine and to perceive themselves at risk. Researchers who conducted monthly interviews with Hong Kong residents over the course of the SARS outbreak found that peoples perceptions of the effectiveness of staying at home and avoiding going to work decreased as the outbreak wore on.

If Americans see increases in case counts and believe that their own actions are ineffective, they might be less inclined to follow through on social distancing. This could lead to increased contact among people, which could make it more difficult to bring the pandemic under control. Hopefully widespread testing and faster test results will lead to a more accurate understanding of who is and is not infected with the disease, not unlike what South Korea has accomplished so far. In the meantime, Americans should not take an increase in COVID-19 cases to mean that their sacrifices are not worth sustaining.

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Slowing the Spread: Social distancing is working even as coronavirus case counts continue increasing - Milwaukee Independent

Human Behavior

The Declaration of the Human Solidarity Initiative Against the Coronavirus Pandemic – Inter Press Service

Health

AMMAN, Apr 10 2020 - We find this to be a difficult time in the history of humanity. COVID-19 has brought about ever-increasing tragedies of death and deprivation all the while inflaming our social and economic problems. The time has come to form a humanitarian consensus strong and active to face the challenges and dangers that threaten humankind and its future onour small planet.

As a group of Muslim scholars and thinkers that share in the ethical commitment and humanitarian obligation towards others, we call on all individuals wherever they may be to take part in the blessed efforts of international, regional and national organisations and carry out their human, ethical and religious duty to overcome a deadly pandemic that has affected humankind, our ways of being, world economies and indeed a majority of life systems, and afflicted the impoverished with the additional suffering of a livelihood constricted and constrained.

With a view to reviving the ethical and humanitarian responsibility towards others as the governing and organizing principle of human behavior and activity, and out of the belief that the concept and practice of Zakat, or the giving of alms, entails good formankind and with respect to the conference that the Arab Thought Forum planned to hold on the subject of the Universalism of Zakat Dimensions and Institutional Manifestations in Ramadan of 1441H, we issue a call of support to the initiative made by Prince El Hassan bin Talal under the heading Solidarity and the Awakening of the Human Conscience and a call to action for the establishment of an international institution for Zakat and human solidarity, an undertaking that His Royal Highness called for many a year ago.

In all its reverberations and consequences, the present calls for reform from within. We must find inner peace and security, seek the soundness of our hearts andresuscitate acollective consciousness that leads us tothereinforcement of values that elevatethe dignity of Man above polychromatic nationality,religion, color and gender.

Reason and human existence today face monumental challenges in awe of a miniscule organism, intelligence has stood befuddled.An egalitarian pathogen perseveres in its mightand obliges us to underline the potential of human sufferingto bring people together further than the vocabulary of interests andgains. In truth, each of us harbors the feeling that the threat to humanity is one. And, that truth ought to marshalour capabilities and give rise to thoughtful reflection on the meaning of our collective humanity in all its strengths and weaknesses whilst it uncovers for us novel spaces of convergence and joint action.

The good of an individual lies in hishumanityand his humanitya cornerstone of human solidarity around which all of our shared values revolve. An imperative that beckons us to recognize our shared responsibility towards future generations, the injunction to give serious thought to the challenges facing humanity is a corollary of the belief in the dignity and the rights of Man.

These arduous times are a test ofthe humanityof Man and his humilityjust as they are a test ofthe truth, rituals and fruits of faith: Will we fail or will we succeed? WeMuslimscarry the flag of a mercifuland compassionate religion. An international institution for Zakat and human solidarity should be preceded by interpretive jurisprudential activity on the issues of our time such as Zakat and social solidarity. Zakat could be a starting point from which mercy which God Almighty rendered as the principal purpose behind the sending of His Messengers is realised. The revival of our human and ethical duty towards others is in effect a revival of the common sense that God has endowed us with. A revival as such would be a faithful representation of the true religion of God in all its doctrines and fundamental parameters.

We thus refer to a fatwa byMuslim scholars that permits nay applauds accelerating the payment of the Zakat owed over the course of one or two years to the impoverished and even favors the rapid payment of Zakat over waiting for thestart of the holy month of Ramadan to give alms.The value of that Zakat in the Muslim world this year alone is estimated in excess of four hundred billion dollarsa tremendous sum which if collected in the current circumstances,where curfews and shutdowns have meantinterruptions to the livelihoods of many, may salvage the faith, lives and dignity of the needy.

The ability of the mind to innovate, invent and face challenges is resounding. The problems that arise from a knowledge alien to the idea of a balance with nature can be addressed through the integration of the natural and social sciences. An opportunity to exhibit the extent of our involvement in the deft management of a crisis and showcase our collaborative efforts to realise the common good and blunt the effects of poverty, destitution and illness on people, the present brings to the fore the role of networking and coordination, the obligation to learn from others and the importance of working together to rebuild the trust that remains lostand that which has weakened between the young and the old and the rich and the poor.

We find it vital to emphasise the role played by faith in strengthening our capacity for hardship and our ability to persevere in the face of that hardship as well as the role played by faith in encouraging supportfor and the alleviation of the suffering and pain of others. We shall certainly test you with fear of hunger, and loss of property, lives and crops. But [Prophet], give good news to those who are steadfast the Quran (The Cow 2:155).

We view Man as a part of nature rather than asa creature outside of Gods natural creation. Man is thus entrusted with the care of the Earth and the creatures that inhabit the Earth: We offered the Trust [of reason and moral responsibility] to the heavens, the earth, and the mountains; yet they refused to undertake it and were afraid of it; but mankind [undertook to] bear it the Quran (The Joint Forces 33:72).

We call for a reconciliation betweenhumankind and nature. Mankind must develop a sense of responsibility towards the environment and begin to protect the environment. A balance between the requirements of modern civilization and the preservation of life must be found: pollution of all stripesand encroachments of all kinds must be curtailed, natural resources must be carefully managed, and troves of buried ore must be maintained and preserved. Institutional responsibility thus lies in the increase of funds made available for the purposes of scientific research in our contemporary societies

The here and now is a truly encouraging moment for the humanitarian side of religion to come to the fore and a moment conducive for the development of a civilizational discourse anchored in the shared values of humanity. In its entirety, humanitymustunite and bring repertoires of knowledge together and synchronize the endeavor to find a way out of the global catastrophe that we all face regardless of race, colorand belief.

We are all children of a civilization united by common bonds of a far greater kind than the differences cultural, racial or other that divide us: People, be mindful of your Lord, who created you from a single soul, and from it created its mate, and from the pair of them spread countless men and women far and wide The Quran (Women 2:1). We must come to sense the moral responsibility that we hold for the disasters caused by Man, or those natural disasters that come as a consequence of the actions and conduct of Man, as the Holy Quran says,Corruption has appeared throughout the land and sea by [reason of] what the hands of the people have earned so He may let them taste part of [the consequence of] what they have done so that they may return [to righteousness] The Quran (The Byzantines 30:41)

In the sake of Allah/God

Signatories:

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The Declaration of the Human Solidarity Initiative Against the Coronavirus Pandemic - Inter Press Service

Human Behavior

Akron’s shutdown may have come at least painful time – Crain’s Cleveland Business

There's never a good time for a pandemic, but as far as Akron's concerned, now is probably the best time in terms of its impact on the city's redevelopment plans.

As long as things return to normal as planned and attitudes toward urban living survive this historic episode, that is. If so, it may even present the city some opportunities.

The COVID-19 crisis has downtown Akron, like a lot of city centers, virtually shuttered. But at least the shutdown is occurring when the core of the city was already hobbled by a massive construction project on Main Street, said the builder spearheading downtown's $42 million Bowery Project, which now sits behind orange barrels on Main Street.

"Now would be the time to do it, because there wasn't a lot happening on Main Street anyway," said Don Taylor, CEO of Fairlawn-based Welty Building Co., of the current shutdown.

Taylor's company is building out the six formerly decrepit office and industrial buildings to transform them into a mixed-use development slated to open this summer. His company also is leasing out the 92 apartments that Taylor said make up the project's residential component, as well as its roughly 40,000 square feet of retail space.

Welty has been leasing apartments throughout the current crisis, Taylor said, speaking over the sound of jackhammers from the site as work continued on the street outside.

"We are now at over 35 leases signed for the residential, out of 92 units. So, our residential leasing has done really well, even with coronavirus," Taylor said, noting that all of the apartments in the project are now complete.

Many people may not have expected that prospective tenants would be signing leases. After all, the economy is in tatters, especially in downtown areas that rely heavily on now-shuttered bars, restaurants and retail establishments. Those are the amenities places like the Bowery typically use to market themselves, as well as sources of income for some potential tenants.

Leases at the Bowery are not cheap by Akron standards, either. Apartments at the new complex lease for between $1,000 and $3,100 a month fairly pricey for Akron, where various apartment-tracking sites list average rents between $600 and $825 a month.

But even as the city and the nation are gripped by what most economists say is likely the beginning of a significant recession, Taylor said interest in leasing at the Bowery has been keen.

He likely can thank Akron's diverse economy and, in particular, its strong health care component for picking up the slack.

"We have a real cross-section (of new tenants), from young professionals to those newly moved to the area," Taylor said. "And probably the most concentration is with doctors and those that serve health care, mainly because we are a block from Akron Children's Hospital and four blocks from Cleveland Clinic Akron General (Hospital)."

On the retail side, though, pretty much everything is on hold, he noted, with prospective new bars, restaurants and other establishments taking a wait-and-see approach before committing to space.

Taylor said that's not necessarily due to the COVID-19 crisis, but to the construction on Main Street, which is taking longer than anticipated.

"Every single commercial space had at least one person looking at it. And when I say they were looking at it, I mean we were in serious conversations about leasing," Taylor said. "But because of the delay in construction on Main Street, as it became apparent it would not be finished (in 2019), our interest in those spaces really dried up. They said, 'When Main Street is done, call us back. We can't put time into planning something when we don't know when we can open the front door.' "

That means the establishments likely won't have their space built out and be ready to open when Main Street is completed, Taylor said.

Taylor had planned to have a grand opening for the Bowery in April or May but said he will now push that back to June or July. However, he's not overly concerned as long as Main Street construction wraps up in July as the city is currently promising.

"Now, the city's telling us that Main Street will be done in July. Most of the retail community said, 'Prove it. When it's done, we'll talk again.' Now, we have the coronavirus and we're in a serious pause," Taylor said, stressing the importance of the city completing Main Street by the new deadline.

That's on track to happen, said Jason Segedy, Akron director of planning and urban development.

"We're really full steam ahead on all the city's construction projects. One of the things COVID has done is eliminate a lot of traffic, which has made it easier to work. I think we're in good shape in terms of opening a new Main Street on July 1," Segedy said.

If that happens, and things do return to some semblance of normalcy, Segedy and Taylor both think Akron could even benefit from the effects of the crisis.

For one thing, as big cities such as New York seem to be having the worst time during the pandemic, it may spur folks to seek out smaller cities in which to live, where the pandemic so far appears easier to manage. Or maybe the work-from-home trend forced on society will stick around, meaning locals who take jobs with companies elsewhere could work from Akron.

"I do wonder if this doesn't hurt really large cities like New York. But for midsize cities like Akron, I think in the long run we may even benefit from people giving us a second look now," said Segedy, a staunch urbanist who studies issues that impact cities.

Taylor said the dramatic impact of the crisis on restaurants and bars in the area could benefit downtown, too. He said he thinks that when the shutdown ends, many restaurant operators might see a newly rebuilt downtown as a more desirable place to reopen and relocate their businesses, especially if the Bowery and other projects successfully fill the neighborhood with new residents.

"The predictions that 50% to 60% of restaurants will go out of business, that also means good operators will be looking for new places to run their businesses," Taylor said.

He added the Bowery will seek to work with four or five such operators and will offer particularly generous terms in the form of tenant improvement allowances to help make their visions a reality in the Bowery's new "white-box" spaces. It will cost Welty more up front, but it should also help ensure the project's ultimate success, Taylor reasoned.

"We're willing to take some financial bets on some good operators that are out there," he said.

Of course, all of the city's plans and Taylor's bets depend on the crisis passing and on people continuing to seek out cities in which to live and play.

If the past is a gauge, the signs are good, according to economists and historians familiar with past pandemics.

People sometimes fled cities during the outbreaks themselves, but the lure of urban environments didn't go away. Human behavior changed in many ways spitting on the sidewalk became taboo, for instance but people always came back to cities for their social and economic benefits.

"What cities saw during cholera outbreaks and the 1918 flu pandemic is that people just left for the short term. They left while the pandemic was going on, but then they just returned," said Amanda Weinstein, an assistant professor of economics at the University of Akron.

Matthew Crawford, an associate professor of history at Kent State University who specializes in the history of science and medicine, agreed.

"It's hard to imagine there would be a big demographic shift back to the countryside or even the suburbs," Crawford said. "I can't think of a case where there was a massive shift of people moving to the countryside and giving up on living in the cities. Cities exist for a reason."

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Akron's shutdown may have come at least painful time - Crain's Cleveland Business

Immunology

Back story: Profiling the scientists who’ve entered the fray against COVID-19 – The San Diego Union-Tribune

Health care workers are rightfully getting a lot of attention for battling the coronavirus. But theres a second front in the war against the virus: science.

As one of the largest science centers in the U.S., San Diego is playing an especially crucial role that involves everything from tracking COVID-19 to the search for a vaccine.

In todays InDepth, the Union-Tribune highlights the work of local researchers and has them describe the moment they realized how bad things might get. Reporter Gary Robbins explains how the story came together.

Q: Did something in particular trigger this story?

A: Ive been very moved by watching Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. He has been clearly and calmly explaining the threat posed by COVID-19 and how scientists are responding. There are a lot of scientists like him here, so I turned the spotlight their way.

Q: In what ways are they like him?

A: Theyre tireless, committed and circumspect. A lot of local laboratories are closed to help slow the spread of the virus. Many scientists have set up shop in their living rooms or dens. Some of them answered my emails in the middle of the night or when they could have been spending time with their families. They werent seeking publicity. They were trying to keep people informed. And they werent making outlandish claims.

Q: Did they speak as clearly as Fauci?

A: Unfortunately, few people do. Thats especially true in science where theres a cultural imperative to quantify things to the Nth degree. But with a little coaxing, most people get to the point.

I wasnt sure how far to press scientists. Like the rest of us, they are exhausted and nervous. One researcher said that if a member of his family gets COVID-19 it will be because he unknowingly brought it home. Another told me he was preparing to take his son, who has stage IV cancer, to the hospital for chemotherapy and was worried that he might become infected with COVID-19. We were strangers, and in a nano-second I was speechless.

Q: Have you been able to interview scientists in person?

A: Not for the past couple of weeks, and that only makes sense. But it makes reporting harder. The key to a lot of interviews is being able to read a persons face and body language. It isnt easy to do that over Skype. People look washed out and the audio sounds like your mic was dropped in a fish tank. This is also a drag because I simply like talking to people in person.

Q: Was there a moment that could be described as powerful?

A: Yes. It involved Erica Ollmann Saphire, a virus fighter at the La Jolla Institute. Shes a warm, funny person and a gifted speaker. I asked her if she experienced a gut check moment when she realized how bad things might get. She gave an eloquent response in which she ended by describing COVID-19 as being like a wall of water coming at you, a tsunami. Were going to have to build a ship to get out of it.

Ive learned to stay quiet when people are talking like this. Theyll often deliver a bit more. She did, saying, We must deal with this. We cannot fail.

It was like listening to Churchill implore the British to remain strong when London was being bombed by the Germans during World War II.

The next day, she wanted to tone down her comment a bit. I asked her not to. Much of the public thinks of scientists as unknowable nerds in white lab coats. The opposite is true. And were experiencing an extraordinary moment in which much of the public is listening to scientists.

Fortunately, Saphire cut me some slack on this.

Q: The Union-Tribune recently lost its biotech reporter, Bradley Fikes. Has it been difficult covering the pandemic and response without him?

A: Yes. I miss Bradley. He passed away in November of a heart attack. He had an encyclopedic knowledge of immunology and viruses something that made him a beloved and respected figure among scientists. I could always wave at him and say, Remind me again of the difference between enzymes and proteins. Ive forgotten. When it came to the life sciences, he was a flesh-and-bone version of Google.

Bradley would have greatly enriched our coverage of the coronavirus.

There is a piece of good news to report. Jonathan Wosen, the Union-Tribunes new biotech reporter, begins work on Monday. He earned a doctorate in immunology at Stanford. Like Bradley, hes wicked smart.

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Back story: Profiling the scientists who've entered the fray against COVID-19 - The San Diego Union-Tribune

Immunology

With no US plan to return to normal, some states are creating their own – Walla Walla Union-Bulletin

America doesnt have a plan to return to normal. The federal governments failure to produce one could leave millions of workers, students and families stuck inside even after hospitals and first responders have weathered the initial crisis.

Reopening society, experts say, will require the regular testing of millions of people, a reliable and fast nationwide reporting network and an army of thousands of investigators tasked with tracking down those who may have been exposed to the virus. Experts have compared this to the effort to put a man on the moon and the Manhattan Project.

The federal government has yet to produce even the framework of a plan let alone the supplies and workforce to carry it out leaving states and local governments to cobble together their own tenuous road maps.

It really does need to be started by the federal government, said Gigi Gronvall, an immunology specialist at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. Its not something that you can just throw together. It should be worked on now while the tests are coming online and not weeks and weeks down the road.

When the health emergency does abate, governors will face political pressure to loosen restrictions on business, travel and socializing. But experts say doing so without a widespread testing system only invites a second outbreak.

The move toward less restrictive physical distancing could precipitate another period of acceleration in case counts, reads a road map written by several public health experts, including former U.S. Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Scott Gottlieb, which calls for careful surveillance before lockdowns are lifted. The report was published independently by the American Enterprise Institute, the right-leaning Washington, D.C., think tank where Gottlieb is a resident fellow.

The 16-page report drafted by Gottlieb and others is the most prominent plan for societys return to normal. It calls for a comprehensive national sentinel surveillance system. But state officials say the U.S. government has proven inept, and theyre forging ahead with their own plans instead of waiting for its playbook. Whether those plans prove viable without real federal support is an unanswered question.

With a strong federal presence, we could be so much further forward in terms of our public health response, said San Francisco Assessor Carmen Chu, who serves on the task force planning the citys recovery. The lack of leadership at the federal level has hurt us. We really cant do it alone.

Even if the health care crisis evaporated overnight, not one state currently has a sufficient testing and tracing system to begin easing restrictions, according to another report on testing from Gottlieb and others.

(Reopening society) is going to come down to how good we are with testing, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, a Democrat, said in a news conference last week. You have 19 million people in the state of New York. Just think of how many people you would need to be able to test and test quickly.

Cuomo said ramping up testing to the necessary scale will be an enormous effort, and hes working with the Democratic governors of New Jersey and Connecticut to coordinate a regional plan.

Theres no consensus on just how many tests will be needed nationwide to reopen the economy, but its clear the current system which is generally only testing symptomatic patients who are high-risk or work on the front lines is far from adequate.

James Bullard, president of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, said on Face the Nation that the solution is a universal testing system, an ambitious proposal that would require hundreds of millions of tests a day.

What you want is every single person to get tested every day, Bullard said. And then they would wear a badge like they would after they voted or something like that to show that theyve been tested. This would immediately sort out whos been infected and who hasnt been infected.

Bullard did not respond to questions about how his proposal would be carried out.

Utahs recovery effort is being overseen by Salt Lake Chamber President and CEO Derek Miller, who chairs the task force appointed by Gov. Gary Herbert, a Republican. The plan drafted by Millers team says that testing must become mainstream before most residents can return to work.

In order to open up businesses, we need to get to a place where we can actually do testing on-site, Miller said. Opening up segments of our economy will necessitate a significant ramp-up of mobile testing, antibody testing and asymptomatic testing. We cant flatten the curve, pat ourselves on the back and then risk a second wave.

Utah is currently testing 3,000 to 4,000 people a day, Miller said, with plans to increase to 7,000. But any plan to begin rolling back Herberts Stay Safe, Stay Home order will have to include much more testing than that.

Utah has a population of 3 million, and some workers may need regular testing to ensure they havent caught the virus. As more testing is rolled out, restrictions likely will be pulled back gradually.

I do see a phased approach to bringing segments of the economy fully back online by industry and by geography, Miller said. Experts say its uncertain what free and clear will look like in deciding whos ready to bypass social distancing and other precautions.

Other states are thinking ahead too. Cuomo has chosen a trio of business leaders to plan New Yorks rebound. Cuomos office and planners did not respond to Stateline requests for comment.

Meanwhile, Florida Chamber of Commerce President Mark Wilson said in a release that his team is already developing Floridas statewide plan to restart our economy. A month ago, March 11, just two days before President Donald Trump declared a national emergency, Wilson boasted that Florida is open for business, for travel and for spring break.

Wilson did not respond to questions about his role in state recovery planning.

A few plans already have been drafted. The Economic Research Organization at the University of Hawaii released a brief this month for restarting that states economy.

The step thats the most problematic is (developing) a well-defined system of testing, contact tracing and isolation, said Sumner La Croix, a research fellow at the organization and one of the reports authors. Right now, we know very little about how that all proceeds at the state level.

Hawaii has advantages, La Croix said, because of its geographical isolation, a relatively low number of cases so far and an already robust testing program. But officials will need to build a statewide system, perhaps by the end of the month, that brings public and private entities into a single testing regime.

If we can work on that over the next few weeks and months, I think we might be able to open up our economy here faster than some other places, he said. We could have the surveillance testing in place to relax some of the stay-at-home orders we have.

Unlike other states, Hawaii which has nearly eliminated visitor arrivals to the islands will be able to reopen without worrying that a surge of cases in a neighboring state might set back its own efforts.

Even robust testing might not be enough to return to normal. Health experts have called for an aggressive program of contact tracing to complement testing. Massachusetts is seeking to hire and train a team of 1,000 workers to attempt to track down every person whos been in contact with a confirmed coronavirus patient and instruct them to self-quarantine.

Gottliebs report states that the contact tracing necessary to keep the virus in check when society reopens will require a substantial surge in the health care workforce. So far, Massachusetts is the only state seeking to conduct widespread contact tracing. A nationwide system at the same level would require nearly 50,000 workers.

A spokeswoman for GOP Gov. Charlie Baker, who has touted the plan, declined comment.

Utahs Miller said the state is contacting about five people for every confirmed patient, a manageable number, but that the state may need to ramp up its contact tracing program if the caseload becomes overwhelming.

A pair of local governments are pioneering some of the first widespread testing programs thanks to rare partnerships with local medical companies that have stepped forward even as most states limit their tests to at-risk residents and symptomatic frontline workers.

Even those early successes show the limits of a patchwork system.

In Colorados San Miguel County, officials are partnering with a local company to offer testing to the countys 8,000 residents. United Biomedical Inc. offered free blood tests to the county that detect antibodies, showing whether someone was exposed to the virus and had immunity.

Experts and officials think these tests, known as serology tests, could be crucial to putting some people back to work, as people with immunity could safely take on frontline duties. Germany is planning to issue immunity certificates that will allow those who have recovered to ignore lockdown rules.

Even as the Colorado county collects results, Gronvall, the immunology expert, said a strong nationwide program is crucial for immunity testing. Without a regulated system, theres potential for employers to seek workers private medical information, and an incentive for people who want to go back to work to deliberately catch the virus.

Its definitely something that requires government attention, because of the potential for misuse, she said.

About 6,000 San Miguel County residents have been tested so far, with most of the results still pending. Eight residents have tested positive.

We dont know how were going to use the information yet, said Democratic County Commissioner Hilary Cooper. Were just waiting for the results and then at least well have more information with which to make informed decisions.

Without a more widespread testing system, San Miguel County doesnt expect to reopen any sooner than its neighbors.

We dont live in a bubble, we live in a region surrounded by communities that were very dependent on, Cooper said. In order for this to be highly effective, we should do it in the entire region.

Still, Cooper said the program could be instructive for other governments, noting that it took a logistical miracle just to organize testing in one small county. Although most county residents have been tested, results are slow to come in and a second round of testing was suspended, as the partner companys New York laboratory is overwhelmed.

Meanwhile, the city of Carmel, Ind., has begun testing all municipal employees for active infections. The Indianapolis suburb plans to test staff who interact with the public weekly, quarantining those who test positive. If the program proves successful, it could provide a model for how the workforce at large could get back to business with regular testing.

Of the nearly 400 tests that have been conducted so far, eight employees have tested positive, including several first responders.

The people on the front lines, if we can determine who has it, we can keep them from spreading it and protect them and their families, said GOP Carmel Mayor Jim Brainard. The more people you can detect and isolate, the less spread there will be.

Like San Miguel County, Carmel is partnering with a local medical company to offer the tests. Brainard said the testing is allowing city operations to retain some normalcy.

We want to keep providing essential city services, he said. We have to make sure our sewers run, our water runs, the garbage gets picked up. Our employees generally need to have interaction with the public, even in this period of time.

Within days, Carmel will test antibodies as well. Workers who are found to be immune will no longer be tested for active infections and will be able to donate blood to boost the immunity of others.

On Thursday, Brainard announced that Carmel would collaborate with local companies to donate 50,000 federally approved COVID-19 test kits to New York City.

(EDITORS: STORY CAN END HERE)

As states and cities make progress and continue their own planning, the lack of a federal plan has left many unknowns.

Experts and officials say even states that withstand the health care surge and create strong testing programs may find it dangerous to reopen if their neighbors fall behind, a consequence of the patchwork approach.

Rapid change has made planning difficult as well.

One month from now, the types of testing ability we have may look very different, said Chu, the San Francisco official.

Chu emphasized that the city will use an abundance of caution when deciding to reopen.

We want to make sure were not going forward one step and falling back two steps, she said.

2020 Stateline.org

Visit Stateline.org at http://www.stateline.org

Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

PHOTO (for help with images, contact 312-222-4194): CORONAVIRUS-STATES-REOPENING

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With no US plan to return to normal, some states are creating their own - Walla Walla Union-Bulletin

Immunology

Anti-Covid consortium in India working on therapeutic antibodies – Outlook India

Anti-Covid consortium in India working on therapeutic antibodies

New Delhi, April 12 (IANS) An anti-Covid consortium of experts with the assistance of Department of Biotechnology is working towards producing therapeutic antibodies against Covid-19.

In India, one such effort is being led by Vijay Chaudhary at the University of Delhi South Campus-Centre for Innovation in Infectious Disease Research, Education and Training (UDSC-CIIDRET), with the support of the Department of Biotechnology in the Ministry of Science and Technology.

Chaudhary''s group is isolating genes encoding antibodies, which can neutralise the SARS-CoV-2, using a large antibody library already available in-house as well as a library made from cells of patients who have recovered from COVID-19 infection.

These antibody genes will be used to produce recombinant antibodies in the laboratory, which, if successful in neutralising the virus, will become a perennial source of antibodies against this virus, both for prophylactic and therapeutic purposes.

This work is being undertaken as part of an Anti-Covid consortium under the leadership of Chaudhary and involving Amulya Panda at National Institute of Immunology and Sanjay Singh at Gennova Biopharmaceutical Limited, Pune (GBL).

Covid 19 is caused by the novel SARS coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) and it is resulting in many deaths. However, a large number of infected people are also recovering despite not having any specific treatment. This is because of antibodies produced within the body in response to the virus invasion.

Over the years, passive transfer of antibodies obtained from the plasma of convalescent patients cured of infection has been used for treatment of numerous disease conditions such as diphtheria, tetanus, rabies and ebola.

Today such therapeutic antibodies can be produced in the laboratory by DNA-based recombinant technologies. Efforts are in full swing globally to produce therapeutic antibodies against SARS-CoV-2, a statement by Department of Biotechnology said.

--IANS

san/prs

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Anti-Covid consortium in India working on therapeutic antibodies - Outlook India