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Restarting the Economy Too Soon Could Damage It More – GovExec.com

The U.S. risks hurting the economy more than helping it if it restarts before mid-June, according to a new study.

The finding provides an answer to one of the most pressing questions facing the countrywhen should we reopen shuttered businesses?

In thepaperon the American Enterprise Institute website, author Anna Scherbina, associate professor of finance at Brandeis University, found that for at least two more months, the economic benefits of controlling the virus and preventing illness and death are greater than the economic cost of closing most nonessential businesses.

Even after we lift the lockdown, or what economists call suppression, we must keep in place more moderate measures, such as wearing face masks and limiting public gatherings, until a vaccine or an effective drug or treatment becomes widely available, says Scherbina.

Otherwise, the economic harm from the viruss spread will be greater than keeping theeconomyshuttered.

I was looking for the date when the cost of keeping businesses shut will become greater than the benefit of containing the spread of COVID-19, Scherbina says. You have to find the moment when the virus is sufficiently under control that it wont significantly damage the economy before a vaccine or a treatment becomes available.

Before coming to the Brandeis International Business School in 2019, Scherbina worked for two years as a senior economist at the US Council of Economic Advisers. While there, she cowrote a paper modeling the economic costs and health impact of a theoretical influenza pandemic on the United States.

When Scherbina wrote the paper, some 30,000 Americans had COVID-19. As of last week, the figure stood at 460,000. Scherbina revised her conclusions to include the new data.

She also stresses some assumptions in her model depend on still-unfolding government policies and human behavior, while others may change as we learn more about the virus.

In her analysis, Scherbina compared the economic costs of businesses staying closed, which causes a steep drop in the gross domestic product, with the economic benefits of a lockdown that prevents people from getting sick and dying.

With widespread illness, productivity drops as people skip work to recover or care for their sick relatives. There are also increased medical costs. Policymakers and economists also assign a dollar value to every life, based on a calculation of how much we would be willing to pay to prevent the death.

In determining the mid-June date, Scherbina used a relatively optimistic estimate of how successful we are in limiting the viruss spread during thelockdown.

Left to spread uncontrollably, the virus has a reproduction rate of 2.4, meaning the typical person would infect an average of 2.4 people over the course of their illness (assuming that no one in the population is immune).

Scherbinas optimistic scenario assumes that our current containment efforts reduce the reproduction rate to 0.5 by the time the economy reopens.

The pessimistic scenario assumes that the containment efforts are less effective and reduces the virus reproduction rate to 0.7. In that case, the economy will need to stay shut until early August (17 weeks from the second week in April).

Both these estimates assume that mitigation efforts will be in place when the lockdown lifts and will largely succeed in slowing the spread of the virus until avaccineor other treatment is available.

Mitigation efforts include wearing face masks, limiting public gatherings, discouraging flying, encouragingworking from home, and offering widespread testing and contact tracing, where anyone who has come in contact with someone who is infected is tracked down and notified.

If mitigation efforts fail, the gains from the lockdown will be negated, and we may have to enter another lockdown period, Scherbina says.

In the absence of a vaccine or an effective treatment, a public health intervention is paramount, Scherbina says. This is what we are doing at this time with the lockdown policy of suppression after which we will switch to a mitigation mode until a vaccine or treatment is available.

Scherbina also calculated the cost to the economy if we made no efforts to control the virus at $9 trillion, a more than 40% drop in the gross domestic product.

Given this high cost, doing nothing is not an option, she says.

Source:Brandeis University

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This article was originally published inFuturity. Edits have been made to this republication. It has been republished under theAttribution 4.0 International license.

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Restarting the Economy Too Soon Could Damage It More - GovExec.com

Sea turtles expected to thrive now that many people are staying indoors – 10TV

Stay-at-home orders have forced millions of people to stay indoors to prevent the spread of coronavirus.

Now, as summer approaches and beaches remain void of people and pollution, sea turtles are finally able to nest peacefully and they're expected to thrive.

Sarah Hirsch, senior manager of research and data at Loggerhead Marinelife Center, told CBS News affiliate WPEC that "it's going to be a very good year for our leatherbacks."

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"We're excited to see our turtles thrive in this environment," Hirsch said. "Our world has changed, but these turtles have been doing this for millions of years and it's just reassuring and gives us hope that the world is still going on."

David Godfrey, executive director of the Sea Turtle Conservancy, told CBS News in an email that thousands of turtles are currently migrating to nesting beaches in Florida and other areas in the Southeastern United States, and that "all of the potential positive impacts relate to changes in human behavior."

All seven species of sea turtles are endangered. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA), the largest threats sea turtles face in the U.S. are damages to nesting habitats, accidentally getting captured by fishermen, debris entanglement and getting hit by marine vessels.

Godfrey explained that since there are far fewer people boating and operating cruise and container ships now, "the chances that turtles are going to be inadvertently struck and killed will be lower."

"All of the reduced human presence on the beach also means that there will be less garbage and other plastics entering the marine environment," Godfrey added. "Ingestion and entanglement in plastic and marine debris also are leading causes of injury to sea turtles."

A study conducted at the University of Florida in 2016 found that removing debris from the beach can increase the number of nests by as much as 200%.

In Juno Beach, Florida, researchers from the Loggerhead Marinelife Center have found at least 69 nests, which is "significantly more than normal" for the 9.5 miles of beach they include in their research, according to CBS Miami. According to the center, only 1 in 1,000 sea turtle hatchlings live to be adults, and all of the hatchlings the center takes in have ingested microplastics.

Florida reported more than 395,700 sea turtle nests in the 2019 nesting and hatching season, according to the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission. Many nesting sites are along the beaches that double as popular tourist destinations, including in Fort Lauderdale, Miami, and the Florida Keys. But now that the beaches are seeing fewer tourists, closed businesses, and many are still closed to the public, Godfrey said the beaches are darker.

"We expect that thousands of hatchlings that ordinarily would be disoriented by lights this nesting season will not be and are more likely to survive to reach the sea," he said.

Nesting and hatching season lasts from March 1 to October 31.

In Tortuguero, Costa Rica, the Sea Turtle Conservancy announced Friday that they counted 45 leatherback turtle nests, three green turtle nests, and one hawksbill nest.

The first Kemp's ridley sea turtle nest was discovered in Texas on April 11, which the Padre Island Division of Sea Turtle Science and Recovery says is about 10 days earlier than last year. They wrote on Facebook that they hope it's a sign of a "busy nesting year."

The Loggerhead Marinelife Center and other sea turtle researchers have said they are optimistic about how coronavirus will impact the rest of the nesting season.

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Sea turtles expected to thrive now that many people are staying indoors - 10TV

Trailers of the Week: Capone, The Eddy, Solar Opposites, and More – Yahoo Music

Click here to read the full article.

Brave New World

You are an essential part of a perfect social body, says an overhead voice. Everybody in their place. Everybody happy now. This perfect society is New London, where life is free of pain and there is no such thing as monogamy, privacy, money, or family. But just outside New Londons bounds are the Savage Lands, where no such restrictions exist. The teaser highlights an emotional moment between Demi Moores character and her son. Theres no pain there, John, she says. No fear. I want that for you. (2020)

More from Rolling Stone

Capone

After a flash of violent black-and-white scenes from the gangsters past, the clip turns to a bright day in Florida as Tom Hardys Al Capone looks out over his estate with a cigar. However, his life in Florida isnt a paradise. The clip focuses on Capones struggle with full-blown dementia and a hidden fortune whose location is obscured by Capones deteriorating mind. Based on true events, the clip teases a dangerous blurring of the gangsters past and present in his final year. (May 12th)

Dangerous Lies

A down-on-their-luck couple suddenly inherits a fortune from the elderly man they were working for in a new Netflix thriller. While this unexpected gesture of kindness seems like a great relief, it quickly upends Katies life when she finds herself surrounded by deception. Katie (portrayed by Camila Mendes) is forced to question everything, even her own husband, as their new life turns into a trap. (April 30th)

The Eddy

The frantic sounds of jazz follow Elliott Udo (portrayed by Andr Holland) as he struggles to manage his house band and keep his Parisian jazz club The Eddy afloat. While those tasks already come with their share of strain, the situation becomes more fraught as Udo is roped into his partners shady dealings. Debt looms over both Udo and the club, but its not the only thing putting on the pressure. Udo has his own history tucked away in New York, and it comes back to him when his daughter unexpectedly turns up, pleading with him to return. (May 8th)

Solar Opposites

While figuring out how to fit in is a common problem for Earth dwellers, its even harder for this family of Shlorpian aliens. The new Hulu series brought to us by Rick and Morty co-creator Justin Roiland promises plenty of laughs at the expense of our own human behavior. When the two alien kids are teased at school, they take revenge on their classmate by pouring soda over her brain. Wow, it really is making her dumber, says the Shlorpian daughter as the bullys speech dwindles. I cant believe humans drink this stuff! (May 8th)

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Trailers of the Week: Capone, The Eddy, Solar Opposites, and More - Yahoo Music

Wait, it’s Saturday? How to make the weekend shine in lockdown when days blur – USA TODAY

Experts don't know if coronavirus is transmitted through clothing, but it's good to keep these laundry tips in mind. USA TODAY

Hosting the historic, first ever livestreamed Saturday Night Live, Tom Hanks made a point in the opening monologue that many Americans have become acutely aware of.

Theres no such thing as Saturday anymore," Hankssaid, speaking from his kitchen. "Every day is just today.

He might have gone even further, pointing out that weekends havebecome endangeredin the locked-down-at-home coronavirus era, as the days blurs together to vaguely different variations in a country sheltering in place.

"It's this blurring of the delineation of Monday through Friday. People used to say 'Thank God it's Friday,' But wehave lost that sense of time," says life coach and human behavior expert Patrick Wanis.He maintains that it'simportant to take the extra effort to separate the weekend, or a specific timeof rest, duringthe temporary lifestyle change.

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The Miami-based Wanis himself declines to take on non-mandatory work projects into the weekend to make those days special.

Others have moved weekly happy hours from barsto video chat. People are cooking in place of Saturday night meals at restaurants and trying to recreate spa experiences at home.

"You've got to create time to be calm, to be relaxed, to rejuvenate, to rest," saysWanis.

Driveway parties andZoom happy hours mark the weekends now

Across the country, Americans have done their best to celebrate the weekend in unusual ways such as aEugene, Oregon socially distant weekend block party organized by Mary Lou Vignola and her husband, Frank, on March 21. The party featured tables and chairsset up on driveways as neighbors socialized from a socially appropriate distance.

Robin Cummings sets a table in her driveway as she joins her neighbors for a socially distant weekend block party in Eugene, Ore.(Photo: Chris Pietsch, The Register-Guard)

"Glee" actress Becca Tobin, one of three members of the lifestyleLadyGang podcast, works to maintain her Friday ritual of cleaning the house in the afternoon as if she were going to have her friends over. And she still gets ready to go 'out.' "I shower, actually wash and dry my hair, put on a little make-up, jewelry, a cute outfit, and even shoes," says Tobin. "I prepare a really yummy cocktail for myself and join my standing appointment with my closest friends for 'Fancy Friday' cocktails on Zoom."

Fellow LadyGang podcaster Keltie Knight has been improvising on keeping her weekend foot massage or spa treatment ritual going at home. "Ive been leaving my phone upstairs, putting a mask in my hair and having a glass of wine in the hot tub, and then getting out and slathering myself with delicious smelling lotion," says Knight. "Its almostthe same."

Keltie Knight, a member of the LadyGang podcast, gives herself a personal spa date.(Photo: courtesy of Keltie Knight/LadyGang)

Actress Jane Seymour has dedicated her weekends to starting a new painting, a centering activity and her longtime passion."It allows me to feel like Im doing a reset. Leaving the previous week behind and getting a fresh perspective."

The British-born Malibu, Calif. residentalso carvestime to cook a major meal on the weekend, which she shares with her fellow quarantine-r, her grown-son Johnny. During the time they think about family not able to attend."Its a good way to feel connected to family when were not all physically able to be together right now. And I know that Johnny appreciates all of the home cooking," she says.

Cookbook author and mother of twoManuelaMazzoccokeeps cooking at the center of her family-centered weekend routine, which she has worked to keep in place throughout California's stay-at-home orders.

"Cooking is most fun when done in company, while chatting and working together," says Mazzocco, who suggests small celebration enhancements such as popping open a bottle of something bubbly, playing music and setting the table with candles. "Tomake the weekend meal feel special and different,I start with a quick look at myself in the mirror and find what would make mefeel special. A cute dress and lipgloss are all I need and what works for me."

Kristina Kuzmic talked about divorce and life as single mother in her book "Hold On, But Don't Hold Still." Re-married, she's using her life lessons to get through life in a pandemic.(Photo: Karen Erekson)

Comic and authorKristinaKuzmic says she is using the lessons she learned as a divorced one-time single mother to get through the coronavirus pandemic. Remarried and living in a household with three children, she spends much of the week dealing with home-schooling due to closed schools and juggling her own work responsibilities, which includes V-logging her life for her 140K YouTube followers.

"Butweekends are just fun. All the school routines are set aside. We forget sometimes that ourkids are feeling stressed, too," says Kuzmic. "I'm a rule enforcer but I'm also a fun enforcer. And you have to create that in times like this."

Kuzmic says it's crucial to laugh and enjoy momentswith the family, even in the midst of a pandemic which is having a more dire impact on many around the globe.

"Its important to teach our kids thatenjoying your life is not disrespectful to the people who are suffering," says Kuzmic. "Theres a way to honor those people and wish the best for all of them. Dont teach your children thattheir life has to stop."

Ultimately, experts like Wanis believethat asilver lining could be that the current crisisbrings thoughtfullife changes that couldlead to healthy re-prioritizing an understanding that a weekend is something that has to be worked for and protected, which is something Americans were losing sight of.

"If you think back to your parents, your grandparents, there was a time when people actually did not work Saturday and Sunday. And then ask yourself:who was mentally healthier, your grandparents or you? Most likely it was your grandparents," says Wanis. "There was structure and routine, there was more balance. This is the time for us to rebalance by reevaluating our life."

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Wait, it's Saturday? How to make the weekend shine in lockdown when days blur - USA TODAY

New Movies to Watch This Week: Abe, Selah and the Spades, Sergio – Variety

This time last year, audiences were buying tickets to see Avengers: Endgame. Now, pretty much the biggest new release bypassing theaters and going straight to streaming, amid the turmoil caused by the coronavirusis a movie called Butt Boy.

But dont worry. Governmental leaders are starting to share plans about a reopening of movie theaters, and there are still lots of quality new releases making themselves available by streaming. So, while no new studio movies bowed this week, you can find treasures from festivals such as Sundance and Cannes, plus fresh fare for Amazon Prime and Netflix subscribers.

Here are all the new releases, with excerpts from reviews and links to where you can watch them.

Ingvar Sigurdsson smolders in Icelandic thriller A White, White DayCourtesy of New Europe Film Sales

A White, White Day (Hlynur Palmason) CRITICS PICKDistributor: Film MovementWhere to Find It: Choose a virtual cinema to supportA muscular study of toxic masculinity set in one of the worlds more remote locations, A White, White Day debuted in Critics Week at Cannes, where Ingvar Sigurdsson won the best actor prize. He delivers an astonishing performance here, a display of locomotive determination and exasperated futility transformed into dangerous, unpredictable anger. Im convinced that A White, White Day is the work of one of the most important voices of this emerging generation, arriving at a stage where we have yet to learn his language. Peter DebrugeRead the full review

Abe (Fernando Grostein Andrade)Distributor: Amazon StudiosWhere to Find It: Rent on Amazon or iTunesThe home life depicted in Abe, whose Big Apple-based 12-year-old title character (played by Stranger Things trouper Noah Schnapp) is the product of a Palestinian father and an Israeli mother, skews awfully far from the ordinary. Family dinners, which bring together grandparents from both sides to rehash the religious and political disputes of their respective faiths and countries, are never less than awkward. But Abe has an idea, and an obsession. Abe loves to cook. Hes like Julia Childs inner child, and has more spirit than Rocco DiSpirito. His dream is to use cooking to unite the two sides of the family, Jewish and Muslim (his parents consider themselves agnostic atheists, but their son wants to attend mosque and have a bar mitzvah, and he dreams of dishes that will combine the two sides of his heritage). Peter DebrugeRead the full review

Butt Boy (Tyler Cornack)Distributor: Epic PicturesWhere to Find It: Rent on Amazon, Google Play and other on-demand platformsNobody is going to watch a movie called Butt Boy in pursuit of sophisticated wit. That said, this feature spinoff from a prior sketch by the collaborative comedy-video team known as Tiny Cinema does manage to be just about the drollest execution possible of the most juvenile concept imaginable. Those inclined to be tickled by a one-joke bad-taste premise treated with an incongruous poker face will give this perversely well-crafted goof a leg-up toward immediate moderate cult status. Dennis HarveyRead the full review

Endings, Beginnings (Drake Doremus)Distributor: Samuel Goldwyn FilmsWhere to Find It: Rent on Amazon, iTunes or other on-demand platformsDaphne, who is played by Shailene Woodley in what is simultaneously her most realistic and least accessible performance yet, recently broke up with her boyfriend, moving back into her sisters pool house. That split had something to do with a drunken one-night stand. And now, though shes sworn herself to six months of sobriety and celibacy, Daphne cant deny her attraction to two totally different guys, played by Jamie Dornan and Sebastian Stan. This result is like the mumblecore version of The Philadelphia Story. Peter DebrugeRead the full review

The Quarry (Scott Teems)Distributor: Lionsgate, GrindstoneWhere to Find It: Rent on Amazon and other on-demand platformsThis Southern-set thriller from the director of That Evening Sun was set to premiere at the SXSW Film Festival, but pivoted to streaming instead.

The Sharks (Luca Garibaldi)Distributor: Quiver DisributionWhere to Find It: Rent on iTunes and other on-demand platformsIn its portrayal of a 14-year-old girls disturbing sexual awakening in a sleepy seaside town, Uruguayan writer-director Lucia Garibaldis debut feature suggests luridly violent dangers in tranquil waters both figuratively and, per its title, literally whilst sketching Rosina, its introverted heroine, in light, fragile strokes. The result is intermittently striking before settling into an overly familiar drift: The films icy-humid atmospherics trouble the memory for longer than its remote protagonist and stagnant storytelling, just enough to pique interest in Garibaldis future work. Guy LodgeRead the full review

Bad Therapy (Bill Teitler)Distributor: Gravitas VenturesWhere to Find It: Rent on Amazon and other on-demand platformsAlicia Silverstone and Rob Corddry play a married couple working with a counselor to repair their marriage in this straight-to-VOD relationship drama.

Sergio (Greg Barker)Where to Find It: NetflixThere is a Robert Frost poem called Escapist Never which provides a frequent refrain in Greg Barkers deeply admiring but drawn-out biopic of Brazilian diplomat and U.N. leading light Sergio Vieira de Mello. It is the future that creates his present, runs the penultimate line, and de Mello (played with persuasive charm by Wagner Moura) certainly does seem like a man whose present was shaped by the future. The mans impact on world affairs does render understandable Barkers rather starry-eyed approach, but in its unnecessary length and sentimental emphasis on the mans romantic life, Sergio more often, intentionally and otherwise, evokes the interminable chain of longing of the poems celebrated last line. Jessica KiangRead the full review

Rising High (Cneyt Kaya)Where to Find It: NetflixFact-based The Wolf of Wall Street won criticism from some quarters for seeming to revel in its protagonists sex, drugs and rock n roll lifestyle, while barely chiding him for the predatory, large-scale financial fraud that funded it. Cneyt Kayas new Rising High offers a similar disconnect in its fictive tale of bold chicanery in the realm of high-end real estate, treating its heroes climb to ill-gotten wealth as a vicarious thrill ride, with scant attention paid to the victims they presumably bankrupt. Dennis HarveyRead the full review

Selah and the Spades (Tayarisha Poe)Distributor: Amazon StudiosWhere to Find It: Amazon PrimeStudents from Haldwell prep school graduate prepared for any career, particularly the Mafia. This exclusive boarding prep school is controlled by five factions, and senior spirit captain Selah (Lovie Simone) commands the Spades, the most criminal of the clubs that distributes kush, acid, cocaine, Adderall and tequila around campus. Writer-director Tayarisha Poes cold and stylish debut, commands attention. More specifically, Simones Selah seizes it. The film has more style than plot, but that style is terrific. Amy NicholsonRead the full review

Javier Bardem explores Antarctica in SanctuaryCourtesy of NYFF

The Booksellers (D.W. Young)Distributor: Greenwich EntertainmentWhere to Find It: Choose a virtual cinema to supportThis lovely and wistful documentary invites us to dote on the tactile mystery of old books the elegance of the print, the pages that may be fragmenting, the colorful latticework bindings, the back-breaking size of certain old volumes. Young is a veteran film editor who leads us into grand and cozy old bookstores like the mysterious museums they are. The Booksellers is a documentary for anyone who can still look at a book and see a dream, a magic teleportation device, an object that contains the world. Owen GleibermanRead the full review

Beyond the Visible Hilma Af Klint (Halina Dyrschka)Distributor: Zeitgeist Films, in association with Kino LorberWhere to Find It: Choose a virtual cinema to supportRecently featured at the Guggenheim Museum, Klint was nearly forgotten by time. This documentary explores what was almost lost.

Bias (Robin Hauser)Distributor: 1091 MediaWhere to Find It: Rent it on Amazon, Google Play and other on-demand platformsA deep dive into the subject of implicit bias and how it impacts human behavior.

Earth (Nikolaus Geyrhalter)Distributor: KimStimWhere to Find It: Virtual screenings tied to Earth DayThe director of Our Daily Bread takes a satellite view of how homo sapiens are transforming their planet.

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New Movies to Watch This Week: Abe, Selah and the Spades, Sergio - Variety

PANDEMIC: Coronavirus is reducing CO2. Why that’s worrisome – E&E News

A growing number of prognosticators expect that global carbon dioxide emissions could fall 5% this year as a result of the coronavirus pandemic, amounting to the largest annual reduction on record. But climate researchers say there is little reason for celebration, for people or the planet.

CO2 is a long-lived gas. An annual drop in emissions, even one of historic proportions, is unlikely to dramatically change the concentrations of carbon dioxide swirling around Earth's atmosphere. Then there is the nature of the reductions. Few think draconian economic lockdowns, like those implemented to halt the virus's spread, represent a viable decarbonization strategy.

Mostly, the emissions projections show just how much work the world needs to do to green the economy. Holding global temperature rise below 1.5 degrees Celsius, for instance, would require annual emission reductions of 7.6%, according to the United Nations' projections.

"If this is all we get from shutting the entire world down, it illustrates the scope and scale of the climate challenge, which is fundamentally changing the way we make and use energy and products," said Costa Samaras, a professor who studies climate and energy systems at Carnegie Mellon University.

A host of forecasters have produced emission estimates in recent weeks as the world has rushed to understand the fallout from the pandemic. In late March, the Breakthrough Institute predicted global emissions would be down 0.5% to 2.2%. The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects energy-related emissions in America to decline by 7.5% this year, in large part driven by a drop in vehicle miles traveled and a decline in coal generation, which is pushed to the margins by falling electricity demand.

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At first glance, such projections are staggering. The United States has averaged emission reductions of 0.9% since 2005. In 2019, preliminary estimates suggest emissions were down 2.1% (Climatewire, Jan. 7).

Yet projections for 2020 already look conservative. Most emissions estimates are tied to economic growth. A few weeks ago, most prognosticators predicted the world economy would rebound in the second half of 2020, resulting in little to no growth for the entire year. The International Monetary Fund now expects the world economy to contract by 3%, with the U.S. economy shrinking by almost 6%.

That prediction comes amid a wave of increasingly grim economic statistics. The International Energy Agency said this week it expects global demand for oil could fall by 9.3 million barrels a day in 2020, the largest annual reduction ever. It expects demand could fall by a whopping 29 million barrels a day in April, reducing consumption to levels not seen since 1995.

In the United States, gasoline consumption has plunged to its lowest levels since 1991. The Federal Reserve's monthly industrial production report showed factory output dropping in March at rates not seen since the Great Depression.

Steel production for last week is down a third compared with the same time last year, according to industry figures. And demand for electricity is down, though that has been tempered by stable residential consumption (Energywire, April 6).

Such figures have prompted emission forecasters to raise the CO2 reductions projected for 2020. Carbon Brief yesterday revised its global emissions estimate from 4% to 5.5%.

Glen Peters, director of the Center for International Climate Research, said on Twitter that the IMF's economic projections would equate to a 5.7% drop in emissions this year.

"I think the amount of disruption people have had in their lives from lockdowns will lead to a disappointing drop in emissions," Peters wrote in an email, noting that big-ticket emitters like electricity generation, industry and agriculture are not covered by the clampdowns imposed by many governments.

Yet the scope of the emission reduction in 2020 is almost beside the point, said Taryn Fransen, a senior fellow at the World Resources Institute. Emissions are not falling because of a change in technology or because people have made a long-term change in behavior. They're falling because governments have ordered their citizens to stay home.

"When we're talking about cutting emissions, this is not how to do it," she said. "No one is arguing that we should suppress economic activity to reduce emissions."

The more important question, Fransen said, is whether the crisis prompts any long-term shifts in behavior. If people resume flying and driving as they did before the pandemic, the crisis will have a negligible impact on climate. But if it results in more remote work and less commuting, it might lead to a larger, more sustainable reduction in emissions.

Rob Jackson, a Stanford University professor who chairs the Global Carbon Project, pointed to recent data showing vastly improved air quality in cities around the world. He wondered whether the clear skies would result in a greater push toward cleaner technologies.

"We could have this every day if we had a proportion of the [electric vehicles] that Norway had, one-third of light vehicle traffic," he said.

The sentiment illustrates a wider point, analysts said. In recent years, much of the debate over climate policy has focused on individual actions like choosing whether to drive or fly. But even today, with millions of people around the world stuck at home, the world economy is consuming vast quantities of fossil fuel and emitting large amounts of CO2.

The dynamic highlights the limits of individual action and the need to transform how the economy is fueled, said Shahzeen Attari, a professor who studies human behavior and climate change at the University of Indiana.

"I think what we need is structural change, and that comes from transitioning our entire energy system, the type of vehicles we buy, electricity we consume, weatherizing our homes," Attari said. "Individuals can, in aggregate, push the system, but we need to figure out these pathways of pushing the system."

How the world answers that question will be the ultimate measure of emissions in future years.

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PANDEMIC: Coronavirus is reducing CO2. Why that's worrisome - E&E News

TECO Peoples Gas Named One of the Easiest Utilities to Do Business With – Business Wire

TAMPA, Fla.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--TECO Peoples Gas again was recognized as one of the easiest utilities in the nation with which to conduct business, based on first-quarter Customer Effort index scores from the 2020 Cogent Syndicated Utility Trusted Brand & Customer Engagement: Residential study conducted by Escalent. Peoples Gas ranked in the top three out of the 140 electric, natural gas and combination utilities included in the survey. The Customer Effort index score measures how easy it is for customers to interact with a utility across a variety of touchpoints, including obtaining service and finding information and offerings.

We always put our customers first, said T.J. Szelistowski, president of Peoples Gas. Especially in these trying times, Im pleased to see our customers recognizing our continued efforts and investments to make it easy to do business with us, even while many of our employees are working remotely and altering day-to-day operations for the safety of the more than 200 communities we serve.

Last year, Peoples Gas received the highest overall score in the nation for the fifth year in a row in the 2019 Utility Trusted Brand & Customer Engagement: Residential study. The Cogent Reports study by Market Strategies International provides a comprehensive view into utilities relationships with their residential customers. Peoples Gas also has been repeatedly designated a Customer Champion and an Environmental Champion by the same group.

Escalent is a human behavior and analytics firm that conducts the Cogent Syndicated studies. More than 62,000 residential utility customers responded to the survey.

Peoples Gas System, Floridas largest natural gas distribution utility, serves about 400,000 customers across Florida. Peoples Gas is a subsidiary of Emera Inc., a geographically diverse energy and services company headquartered in Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada.

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TECO Peoples Gas Named One of the Easiest Utilities to Do Business With - Business Wire

Bernie Sanders’ campaign proved that organizing around class interests works – Salon

It never gets old. Every time the political establishmentsucceeds in suppressing a challenge to the status quo, liberal pundits rush to their desks to cluck their tongues. Once again, they proclaim, class struggle has been exposed as a delusion. Marxism, an outmoded 19th century doctrine, has been "refuted" once again.

In a recent, much-read Vox article titled "Why Bernie Sanders Failed," Zack Beauchamp joins this tired chorus. "The Sanders campaign and his supporters bet on a theory of class politics that turned out to be wrong," he says. Sanders failed because his strategy "rested in part on a Marx-inflected theory of how people think about politics," Beauchamp says. He continues:

A basic premise of Marxist political strategy is that people should behave according to their material self-interest as assessed by Marxists which is to say, their class interests. Proposing policies like Medicare-for-all, which would plausibly alleviate the suffering of the working class, should be effective at galvanizing working-class voters to turn out for left parties.

The problems with Beauchamp's argument are myriad. Perhaps most crucially, he seems to have no idea what Marxism is. Nor did his editors.

One can't blame Vox entirely. Throughout the history of capitalism, Marxism has been subjected to caricatures and distortions. But not only are the basic premises of Marxism quite different from what Beauchamp suggests, it turns out that the fortunes of the Bernie Sanders campaign confirm them quite definitively.

First and foremost, liberals are constantly worried about people "voting against their interests." When they talk about this, they're already invoking social class as a political problem. When Vox says "class conflict doesn't dominate the American political scene," this is totally at odds with the way we actually talk about American politics. According to a certain liberal common sense, working class voters are continually supporting Republicans, against "interests" which haven't yet been defined.

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This is why Marxism is relevant; it isn't a reduction of politics to "material interests," it's a critique of the whole category of "interests." Now, it's true that in the most famous excerpts of Marx there are various references to the antagonistic interests of the two social classes that Marx theorized: the bourgeoisie, who own the means of production, and the proletariat, who have to work for them. It's also true that these excerpts, leading up to "The Communist Manifesto," seem to depict an inevitable process. In this version, the forces of history lead inexorably to workers realizing their objective, economic interests and engaging in revolution to achieve them. These get unified into a kind of textbook interpretation, which has been promulgated by academics as well as by the official socialist movement, which says that workers will ultimately necessarily engage in class struggle when they inevitably realize their objective interests.

But this interpretation of Marx whether it's being advanced by critics of Marxism or Marxists themselves (what used to be called "vulgar Marxists") doesn't accurately convey the insights of Marx's analysis. Specifically, there are two problems.

First, it's one thing to say that the two classes of capitalist societies have antagonistic interests. This is just a description of a social fact: bosses and workers can't both get what they want. Bosses want to get richer, and workers want to live better lives; but as Marx described at length, the bosses only get richer by exploiting workers.

This is all pretty straightforward. But there's big leap from describing these antagonistic interests a relationship between classes to saying that people are fundamentally motivated by economic interests, and that this determines their political behavior. As it happens, that's not a Marxist argument; it's actually the argument of apologists for capitalism like Adam Smith, who were trying to argue that acting in one's self-interest wasn't immoral, but was actually the basis for greater prosperity.

The idea that human action is motivated by interests is a core aspect of capitalist ideology, and it's become such a powerful component of our common sense that sometimes Marxists try to cram their own perspective into it, by arguing that self-interest really has to include sympathy for others. But Smith already argued that sympathy was fundamental to human behavior in his "Theory of Moral Sentiments," which preceded the more famous "Wealth of Nations." The Marxist theory is totally different.

In fact, in some of his earliest writings, Marx had already totally rejected the idea that politics could be equated with individual self-interest even if these interests were seen as the basis for democratic rights, which were Marx's primary concern as a young radical struggling for democracy against the absolutist state in 19th-century Europe. From his vantage point, the problem was not that capitalism violated people's interests, but rather that it separated people from each other and from the community, and furthermore, separated them from their very own powers, which then towered over them in the form of the state.

Marx thought that real emancipation would mean reabsorbing these separated powers into the human community not realizing some abstract "interest." In fact, the reason Marx came to think that the working class would have to lead the revolution for real emancipation wasn't because it represented objective, "material" interests, but because it had no real "interests" within the existing society.

When the bourgeoisie waged a revolution against feudalism as in the American and French revolutions it had represented its own limited, partial class interests as the interests of the whole society. But the proletariat, because it was so totally excluded from the structure of society, could only have an "interest" in universal emancipation, in overcoming the domination of everyone. In other words, the program of the proletariat was the abolition of "interests."

Second, Marx quickly had to abandon the view that revolutions would happen automatically when workers became aware of their exploitation, because right after the appearance of "The Communist Manifesto," the revolutions of 1848 demonstrated that revolutions are extremely complicated processes. There are many different class "interests" at play the interests of aristocrats, landlords, financiers, industrialists, the middle classes, the working class, peasants, and so on. In revolutions, different fractions of society form alliances and make different kinds of demands that hold those alliances together. So these "interests" aren't just reflections of people's objective positions in society, but are constituted by political processes.

Ultimately people might "vote against their interests," the phenomenon which causes so much liberal handwringing today. Marx reflected on this in the aftermath of the revolutions of 1848, noting that there was no clear alignment of interests among the various class fractions. The counterrevolutionary stability of French society ended up being secured by a despotic buffoon this might sound familiar who relied on conservative ideology and the support of the peasantry for his election and subsequent coup.

This meant, for Marx, that he had to shift from just looking at the economic determination of historical events to thinking about the state. The capitalist state had the function of maintaining class rule; in a fundamentally unequal society, there has to be some way of pacifying conflict and ensuring stability. But the way it did this was often contradictory, with different factions in the state advancing different strategies for maintaining power.

The fact that the capitalist state is structured around maintaining the power of the ruling class and this can constantly be verified empirically when you look at the policies politicians advocate, their sources of funding, the social networks they're embedded in, and so on means that socialists trying to enter into the state have the deck stacked against them. They're trying to shift political power towards the working class within a structure that is specifically designed to exclude the working class from governance. The response from the Democratic Party to the unexpected (albeit short-lived) success of the Sanders campaign showed precisely how this works: politicians will form alliances and use the party apparatus against the opposition.

The easiest way to maintain ruling-class power is through violence, and capitalist states have not been shy about doing so in the past. But in democratic societies, this can't be the standard operating procedure. Violence is still used in the form of the police and the military, but the state has to gain popular consent, and the Marxist term for how this happens is "ideology."

Liberal pundits tend to talk about ideology in terms of opinions people hold, which are supposed to determine how they vote. This is quite distinct from the Marxist theory of ideology, which is not about consciously held opinions. It's clear that there's frequently a disconnect between people's opinions on policy issues and their voting behavior. Furthermore, people's opinions change all the time; I have personally changed my opinion on several matters over the past few weeks.

So ideology is better understood as the way we form our ideas as a result of everyday habits that we're trained in by our existing institutions. Voting is such a habit. If I spend my entire adult life choosing between two political parties which each represent the same position on certain fundamental questions about the nature of our society for example, whether healthcare is a human right that habit generates certain patterns of thought which I may not even consciously consider. Presented with the choice between a candidate who advocates policies that the whole political system says is impossible, and a candidate who is backed by the whole party apparatus, I may make a choice that is in my "interests" as a Democratic voter rather than as a worker.

Someone should tell Vox's editors that recognizing the role of ideology doesn't mean thinking that people are dupes. It means understanding why people consent to a system which systematically exploits them.

That's why the theory of ideology isn't the same as talking about "false consciousness" (a phrase Marx never used), which we could contrast to an authentic, transparent, "class consciousness." Our "consciousness" is determined by all kinds of different, frequently contradictory aspects of our environments and personal histories. If it's going to work, ideology has to be articulated in a way that speaks to our experiences, in languages that really represent the different facets of our lives. Emphasizing class doesn't mean ignoring those languages in fact, these "cultural" factors are part of the way we understand and experience class.

So a serious Marxist theory and strategy understands that changing people's opinions will mean actually engaging with the language and symbolism of ideology. To a significant extent, the Sanders campaign did do that. It won large support among immigrants not only by appealing to their "material" interests but also by emphasizing Bernie's immigrant background, doing extensive outreach in Spanish, demonstrating Bernie's alliances with young politicians who are also immigrants, and so on. These representational strategies are extremely important, and socialists today ignore them at their peril.

But there is no incompatibility between engaging in an "ideological struggle" and advocating for policies that concern people's material conditions. Or, better, there is only an incompatibility if socialists fail to put together a strategy that can unite them.

As the great Marxist theorist Stuart Hall wrote: "material interests, on their own, have no necessary class belongingness. They influence us. But they are not escalators which automatically deliver people to their appointed destinations, 'in place,' within the political ideological spectrum."

After all, our "material interests" can be pursued in many different ways. Vox says that "Identity, in all its complexities, appears to be far more powerful in shaping voters' behaviors than the material interests given pride of place in Marxist theory." But this just kicks the explanatory can down the road. A white male voter might think it is in his "interest" to preserve race and gender inequalities for the privileges that they confer. But a socialist organization which operates on the principles of solidarity can argue to this voter that it would better serve his interest to give up these privileges in favor of a unified movement against economic inequality. These interests are constituted politically, by organizations which can change the everyday habits that generate ideology. When we act differently and relate to each other in different ways, we can have new ideas. People don't "vote against their interests"; they vote according to what they understand their interests to be within the limitations that exist. If there are organized practices which can change these limitations, those interests can also change.

So Vox is right to say that people aren't ultimately motivated by economic interests. But this isn't an argument against Marxism. The most important and fundamental component of Marxism isn't the idea that people are motivated by economic interests which, as I've pointed out, is a residue of capitalist ideology that Marxism criticized. The core of Marxism is the idea of emancipation. Marxism became a powerful force in history because it aimed at universal emancipation, and this project was taken up by revolutionary movements around the world. People risked their lives for emancipation, and in many cases died for it. What this history shows us is that emancipation goes definitively beyond interests. Every time someone goes on strike or stands up to police violence, they are acting against their immediate interests they could be fired or killed. But when people do risk poverty and death for a political cause, they demonstrate that we human animals are capable of much more than pursuing our immediate interests. We can act in the name of the principle that whatever happens to us individually, no one should go hungry.

Today, every nurse who goes into a hospital to treat patients suffering from COVID-19, knowing that they put their own lives at risk, demonstrates that human beings are capable of acting in the name of solidarity rather than immediate self-interest. And they are challenging us to take that solidarity to its conclusion. In a moving reflection on being a nurse during the pandemic, Emily Pierskalla of the Minnesota Nurses Association writes that if she dies while caring for the sick, "I want you to politicize my death. I want you to use it as fuel to demand change in this industry, to demand protection, living wages, and safe working conditions for nurses and ALL workers."

Capitalist society is built to undermine this solidarity in the name of self-interest, and even if previous socialist strategies have failed, the task remains the same. That's the real lesson of Marxism, and it has never ceased to be relevant.

Originally posted here:
Bernie Sanders' campaign proved that organizing around class interests works - Salon

XX v Whittington: Another nail in the coffin for the Surrogacy Act? – Legal Cheek

BPTC student Callum Reid-Hutchings analyses Lady Hales last ruling

The claimant had several smear tests taken over a four-year span with each being negligently diagnosed by the defendant.

Consequently, by the time the errors were detected, the cervical cancer was too far advanced. Thus, the hospital admitted negligence. If the first smear test taken in 2008 was done correctly then there was a 95% chance of a cure and not developing cancer. A further consequence was that the surgery she needed to take would mean inability to have children. Prior to this surgery, the claimant had eight mature eggs frozen in storage.

The Supreme Court had to address the question whether damages would be payable for the loss of ability to bear her own child.

The area of damages involving surrogacy and other similar issues like wrongful birth are a legal minefield and incredibly complex delving into legal as well as moral issues.

The appeal raised three issues:

1. Can damages to fund surrogacy arrangements using the claimants own eggs be recovered?2. If so, can damages to fund arrangements using donor eggs be recovered?3. Can damages to fund the cost of commercial surrogacy arrangements in a country where this is not unlawful be recovered?

The Surrogacy Arrangements Act 1985 (SAA 1985) is arguably one of the most controversial laws surrounding medical and family law today. Its clauses speak of a time which opposed surrogacy in the 80s and unaware of the development it would have in modern society. Surrogacy is a phenomenon in todays world: celebrities have commercial surrogacies to avoid the consequences of bearing a child for nine months. The complexity of the Act isnt helped by how it has developed in a relatively piecemeal fashion over time and has been supplemented by the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Act 1990 (HEFA 1990) and the 2008 version (HEFA 2008).

Nonetheless the point is clear: any contract or arrangement entered into for surrogacy is unenforceable. The woman who has the child on behalf of the commissioning parents is the legal mother when that child is born (s27 HEFA 1990). If the commissioning parents want to become the legal parents, they need to gain a court order that the child is to live with them for the future. Applications are made via s54 and s54A of the HEFA 2008 and cannot be made until after the child is born but before six months after it was born. However, this deadline has arguably been given lip service after the decision by the president of the Family Division in A v C [2016] where orders could be made when a child was 12 or 13.

One of the most important features of the Act is that commercial surrogacy arrangements are banned. The court must be satisfied that no money or other benefit other than expenses which have been reasonably incurred have been given to the applicant or the agreement in general, unless authorised by the court (s54(8) and s54A(7)). Indeed, parliaments intention was clear here. They didnt want commercial surrogacy to take place at all but understood some expenses to be incurred for this process. However, the provision leaves the court in a tricky place, especially as Lady Hale points out in paragraph 16: what are they meant to do with a fait accompli

This is further reinforced by the fact that the Law Commission has yet to find a case which has been refused for exceeding reasonable expenses. An average derived from the Surrogacy UK Working Group on Surrogacy Law Reform found that payments are usually between 12,000- 15,000. It would be an unlikely scenario that a judge would take the defiant step to draw the line as to what is reasonable expense given the legal consequences of refusing an order, leaving a child parentless.

The SAA hasnt been reformed and is still governed by a scathing report by Dame Mary Warnock who described the practice of commercial surrogacy in 1984 as an intrinsic wrong and leaves many to become susceptible to exploitation. However, times have moved on since then. Surrogacy is governed in many countries with successful results. Leaving it unregulated allows a greater chance of exploitation than if the government were to take a grip on these matters and provide many with important regulation to end the piecemeal legislation the courts have to interpret. The Act bans third parties from arranging commercial surrogacies and being paid for doing so. However, the HEFA 2008 made slight reforms to this in that reasonable costs could now be recovered.

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The issue which XX v Whittington explores is: what happens if the surrogacy takes place elsewhere, not in the UK, where it is lawful for commercial surrogacy? This case is the sequel to Briody v St Helens and Knowsley Area Health Authority decided in 2001 where Hale LJ (as she was then) sat. The facts were, overall, the same. Hale LJ stated that to give damages for a claimant to have commercial surrogacy was indeed, contrary to public policy. Nonetheless, this case was only 15 years after the SAA 1985. It is for this reason that Hale in the current case notices that times have moved on since Briody. There have been developments in the law through case law and statute but also societys stance has invariably changed and surrogacy is now seen as a genuine way of creating a family. A YouGov survey in 2014 found that more than half (59%) of adults in the UK supported using surrogacy to have children. A significant development.

The first two issues in the appeal were resoundingly dismissed. It was held that the court should ask itself whether it was reasonable to remedy the inability to bear a child through surrogacy depended on probability of success. Unlike in Briody, where there was a 1% chance, the chances for XX were reasonable and she even delayed treatment to harvest eggs. In relation to the second issue, Hale said the law derived in Briody was probably wrong then and certainly now. Briody expressed the view that donor-egg surrogacy arrangements could not be recovered as this is not what the claimant lost. This was rejected. Put simply, this is because there have been changes to what constitutes a family in current times. The baby is as much theirs as if they had carried it themselves (XX v Whittington Hospital NHS Trust [2018], King LJ in the Court of Appeal).

It was a 3:2 majority on the third issue, which is the most controversial point.

It is well-established that the UK courts will not enforce a foreign contract which is contrary to public policy. This is where the analysis differs between the Justices.

Hale drew similarities between UK surrogacy and those conducted in California, with many of the costs claimable in California being able to be claimed in the UK. Further, it is not against the law in this country for commissioning parents to do any of the acts which are prohibited by s2(1) of the SAA 1985. The object of the legislation was not to criminalise the surrogate or commissioning parents. The developments since Briody and the governments support for other methods of assisted reproduction are now socially acceptable and becoming very frequent methods to make families. It was for these reasons, amongst others, that Hale decided that it is no longer a public policy concern to award damages for costs for a foreign commercial surrogacy. This marks a significant shift from Briody and that the SAA 1985 is perhaps on its last legs with reform imminent.

But it is worth noting the dissenting passage on this third issue by Lord Carnwath (with whom Lord Reed agreed). He notes that there must be an objective of consistency between the civil and criminal law systems and just because another jurisdiction reflects different policy choices, this should not infiltrate the UKs decision. This principle would be offended if the UK courts were to allow damages to be recovered under civil law but not criminal law. Despite societal reforms and shifting attitudes towards surrogacy, the laws of commercial surrogacy have not changed. Therefore, to allow damages, as has been done in this case, offends this principle.

Regardless of which side of the fence you sit on whether damages should be awarded, the case highlights the importance for the Act to be reformed. The current law does not represent the current stance of society. Further, not only would society benefit, but so will the courts, who have to continuously balance commercial surrogacy laws with the welfare of the child. The latter will almost always prevail.

Callum Reid-Hutchings is a first-class law graduate from Swansea University. He is currently studying the Bar Professional Training Course at City, University of London, and will then commence an LLM at the University of Cambridge.

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XX v Whittington: Another nail in the coffin for the Surrogacy Act? - Legal Cheek

Fertility treatments in the age of COVID-19 – The Miami Times

Infertility is deeply personal and affects 15% of the population. Many who struggle to conceive may never access care because of cost, inertia, or embarrassment associated with having difficulty conceiving. Those with infertility endure many anxieties, uncertainties, feelings of helplessness, and fears about the future -- and now, there's theCOVID-19 pandemicon top of it all.

Amid rapidly evolving public health guidelines, COVID-19 places healthcare providers in a similar climate of anxiety, uncertainty, feelings of helplessness, and fears about the future. Some of us physicians are developing a finer appreciation of the fear of the unknown that regularly complicates decision-making for our fertility patients. For those of us who see things as "black-and-white," and who may be overly dependent on guidelines and algorithms, it is likely a particularly difficult time. We all need to start appreciating nuances and gray areas in medicine. In learning to live with uncertainty, we should learn that with every plan, we must be flexible, ready to absorb new information, and ready to change direction with very little notice.

Over the past month, we have had many questions from our patients about COVID-19, pregnancy, and fertility. Here is a summary of common questions, current data, and recommendations from our national societies:

What are the risks of birth defects with COVID-19?

There are inadequate data to suggest any increased risk of birth defects with COVID-19 infection in the mother. This is reassuring, especially compared to the clearly increased risk of birth defects with varicella, rubella, and Zika virus infections in the mother. Further studies are needed.

Is there evidence of vertical transmission (mother-to-fetus transmission) of COVID-19?

There are inadequate data to suggest that COVID-19 can be passed from mother to fetus. Further studies are needed.

What do we know about the impact of COVID-19 virus infection in utero?

There are few reports of COVID-19-positive women who have given birth. One report from China suggests a possible increased risk of preterm delivery or intrauterine growth restriction; however, these limited data only address COVID-19 infection in late pregnancy. More data will emerge as women who were infected during the early stages of pregnancy progress to delivery over the coming months.

It is unclear whether the reported implications and outcomes associated with COVID-19 are the same as those with other types of coronavirus infections (such as SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV) during pregnancy. Further studies are urgently needed.

What are the national recommendations?

On March 17, the American Society of Reproductive Medicine (ASRM)published guidance for fertility specialists, which included five key recommendations: (1) suspend initiation of new treatment cycles; (2) strongly consider cancellation of all embryo transfers; (3) continue to care for patients who require urgent stimulation and cryopreservation (such as in cases of fertility preservation prior to impending cancer treatment); (4) suspend elective surgeries and non-urgent diagnostic procedures; and (5) minimize in-person interactions and increase utilization of telehealth.

In a March 31 update, ASRM reaffirmed this guidance and noted that they plan to reassess and issue updated recommendations every 2 weeks.

ASRM further noted that infertility should *not* be considered elective. Indeed, the World Health Organization and the American Medical Association have recognized infertility as a disease and a global public health issue.

What services are available and considered "urgent" during this pandemic?

This is a loaded question that likely needs to be individualized in different geographic regions. Regarding "urgent" surgeries, the American College of Surgeons states, "The medical need for a given procedure should be established by a surgeon with direct expertise in the relevant surgical specialty to determine what medical risks will be incurred by case delay."

Can patients begin treatment cycles right now?

For those couples desiring to start fertility treatments, unfortunately, there is currently a national stoppage in America (and also in Europe). While infertility is not elective, fertility treatments (except for very specific indications) are considered non-urgent treatment. While this will be re-evaluated every 2 weeks, we are currently in a "wait and see" situation. While everyone wants to reinstate care as soon as possible, we also need to be conscious of the rapidly evolving nature of COVID-19, and the need for our healthcare system to preserve, conserve, and even hopefully build up some reserves of valuable personal protective equipment during this worldwide COVID-19 public health emergency.

Can COVID-19 be transmitted with fertility treatments?

Specifically, can a woman without COVID-19 acquire it using sperm from a man with COVID-19? There are no data on this question, and further studies are needed.

Regarding fertility treatments, do we need to "quarantine" frozen sperm, oocytes, or embryos from COVID-19 patients?

Most fertility laboratories keep cryopreserved sperm, oocytes, or embryos from HIV-positive individuals in separate freezing tanks to "quarantine" them from frozen genetic material from the general population. Should these labs similarly "quarantine" frozen genetic material from COVID-19 patients separately? Further studies are needed.

Are there any risks of complications for fertility treatments in COVID-19 patients?

One potential risk with in vitro fertilization (IVF) is a phenomenon called "severe ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome," which may result in respiratory and cardiovascular difficulties. Given that COVID-19 infection can similarly result in respiratory and cardiovascular difficulties, it is unknown how women with COVID-19 will handle severe ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome. There are currently no reports of such complications.

Is it safe to try to conceive naturally?

For those couples who wish to try to conceive on their own, we individualize counseling based on patient health status. According to the CDC: diabetes, cardiovascular disease, morbid obesity, and immunocompromise are risk factors for critical illness from COVID-19 infection.

Similar to the 1918 flu pandemic, there are also some concerns that there may be a second wave of COVID-19 cases this fall or winter. Furthermore, we know that a small percentage of pregnant women may have a pregnancy complication (such as preterm labor, premature rupture of membranes, or eclamptic seizures) that may require a hospital stay; however, hospitalization during the COVID-19 pandemic may confer an increased risk of COVID-19 infection. Labor and delivery during this time of COVID-19 may be complicated by recommendations for early epidural placement, a higher chance of cesarean section, and emerging policies to separate mom and baby to minimize the risk of transmission of COVID-19 to the newborn.

For healthy patients who are willing to accept these risks if they conceive now and deliver during a possible resurgence of COVID-19 cases this fall or winter, it would be reasonable to try to conceive naturally.

Should the non-COVID-19 patient delay pregnancy during the current pandemic?

For those debating whether to continue contraception (versus whether to immediately start trying for a natural cycle pregnancy) during these uncertain times, it would be reasonable for certain patients to continue contraception.

While there are no recommendations about contraception for the American public, the European Society of Human Reproduction and Embryology advises that "all fertility patients considering or planning treatment, even if they do not meet the diagnostic criteria of COVID-19 infection, should avoid becoming pregnant at this time." This difference may be due to healthcare systems in certain European countries becoming overwhelmed by COVID-19 cases, leaving those healthcare workers with a lack of resources, personal protective equipment, and availability to treat routine patients outside of their pandemic response.

Finally, there remains much uncertainty about COVID-19, in general.

Infection rates: we will not have reliable data on true infection rates until widespread and accurate testing is more readily available.

Prevalence rates: we will not have reliable data on the number of patients who have recovered from COVID-19 until we have an accurate and reliable test for COVID-19 antibodies.

Fatality rates: without knowing how many cases we truly have, any estimate of true case fatality rates is doomed, except for closed systems like theDiamond Princesscruise ship.

We also have important unknowns, regarding the course of the pandemic, local hospital resources, and the effects on small businesses and the economy.

We empathize with our fertility patients who want to be pregnant already; unfortunately, so much remains unknown about COVID-19. The decision to try for conception, or to continue with contraception, is highly personal and needs to be individualized based on personal health, local conditions, and the current state of the pandemic in your local area.

Here are three questions that fertility patients should consider asking themselves:

Is my personal health and lifestyle in a place where I believe I can have a safe pregnancy?

Am I comfortable becoming pregnant and seeking care (including emergency care if complications arise) in an environment that may be wholly focused on combating COVID-19?

Am I confident that I will have the support I need during and after the pregnancy in a society that may still be practicing high levels of social distancing?

Our state and national leaders are right: this is a war, and we need to band together, so that we don't get overwhelmed. Our hope is that our collective global response to this pandemic will increase our sense of community and togetherness. We need to fight fear, panic, social isolation, and coronavirus cabin fever, while also remembering to take care of ourselves and each other. This too shall pass.

Nikki Kagan is a medical student, and Albert Hsu, MD, is a reproductive endocrinologist at the University of Missouri. All opinions expressed here are their own.

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Fertility treatments in the age of COVID-19 - The Miami Times