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Human Behavior Model; General Theory of Human Behavior

May 1, 2020 medical

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Human Behavior Model; General Theory of Human Behavior

Human Behavior

Unpacking Covid-19 and the Connections Between Ecosystems, Human Health, and Security – New Security Beat

May 1, 2020 medical

What are the underlying drivers of risk that created the conditions for Covid-19 to emerge, and how do we better address them? said Lauren Herzer Risi, Project Director for the Environmental Change and Security Program, in this weeks Friday Podcast, recorded during a recent Wilson Center Ground Truth Briefing on the Covid-19 pandemic. This question framed the discussion, which explored the intersection of the environment, public health, and national security. Although the global pandemic came as a shock to many, the novel coronavirus was not a surprise to epidemiologists and experts who had been sounding the alarm for decades. There have been clear signals of the risks we face from animal-to-human virus transmission, including Ebola, SARS, and other regional epidemics, said Risi. These zoonotic diseases, especially now, are creating concerns about food safety, wildlife conservation, and public health. But the risks dont just come from wet markets and our increasingly connected world.

Rapid urbanization and population growth created a ticking time bomb, as we have increasingly intruded into natural habitats. The loss and fragmentation of wildlife ecosystems has brought humans into closer contact with animals than ever before. While the exact origins of coronavirus have yet to be confirmed, we know that this amplified opportunity for virus transmission is a major factor. An estimated 70 percent of new human infectious disease outbreaks come from pathogens that originated in animals, said Sharon Guynup, Global Fellow at the Wilson Center and a National Geographic Explorer.

We are constantly expanding our interaction with animals and nature. We need to be very, very clear that this is a human-made problem, a humanity-made problem, said Dr. Ellen Carlin, Assistant Research Professor at the Center for Global Health Science and Security and Director of the Graduate Program in Global Infectious Disease at Georgetown University. Its really all of us collectively making decisions about the way that we live. Human behavior puts pressure on natural ecosystems through land use and development, mass urbanization, agricultural intensification, extractive industries, and the growing global demand for commodities. Climate change further exacerbates the environmental degradation. Overall this trend is accelerating the emergence of zoonotic diseases in human populations.

Another aspect of this close contact between humans and animals is the prevalence of illegal wildlife trade and consumption. Some have called for bans in China, but wildlife trade and wet markets arent unique to China, and a solution will require global efforts, said Guynup. It will also be crucial to uphold and enforce the bans put into place, as Chinas actions will have a ripple effect on the policies of neighboring consumer and hub countries. For progress to be made, she said, countries must develop multi-pronged approaches, including strengthening policies and enforcement at national levels, raising public awareness, promoting community involvement, and changing consumer behavior. While Covid-19 is much bigger than just a wildlife trade issue, it is a critical piece of the puzzle.

The cascading impacts of the pandemic on human health, national economies, and society has elevated the coronavirus tonot just a public health crisis, but a national security threat as well. There is currently a disconnect between environmental threats and security paradigms, said Rod Schoonover, founder and CEO of Ecological Futures Group. Unfortunately, U.S. national security is outdated and needs to be recalibrated, I think, to reflect the threats that the country faces, he said. Topics like climate change, land use, and biodiversity need to be core national security concerns instead of add-ons to geopolitical goals, said Schoonover, who was Director of Environment and Natural Resources for the National Intelligence Council. Security dialogues need to involve experts such as epidemiologists, ecologists, and climate scientists in order to establish a climate-smart, ecologically informed pandemic preparedness policy. If you understand the deep connectedness of the planet, he said, you understand that the very support system of humanity is in jeopardy.

How to solve the current pandemic is a priority, but developing long-term plans for how we can better prepare for next pandemic is also important. Given the deep interconnectedness of our world, this coronavirus will not be the last outbreak, said Guynup. Among the many scientific and global health initiatives looking to develop solutions, the Global Virome Project is working to discover unknown zoonotic viral threats and stop future pandemics before outbreaks occur. The Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness is coordinating the development of vaccines against coronavirus and emerging infectious diseases. Although there is no binding global legal agreement on wildlife crime, the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES), is scaling up enforcement efforts and incorporating the consideration of health risks.

We need to tackle the drivers of the pandemic to ultimately achieve prevention, said Dr. Carlin. A shift of epic proportions will be needed to reduce environmental and ecosystem harm. We have a choice to ignore recommendations and continue on with business as usual, or we can recognize our vulnerability to these emerging viral threats, Guynup said. Our well-being is inextricably linked with that of the planets web of life, she said. In fact, one could argue that the state of the world can be measured by the state of the wild.

Sources: Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness, Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora, Global Virome Project.

Photo credit:River of Development,March 18, 2005. Courtesy of Flickr userPeter Morgan.

Friday Podcasts are also available for download oniTunesandGoogle Podcasts.

Human Behavior

The Best of This Week – MIT Sloan

May 1, 2020 medical

Weekly Recap

The weeks must-reads for managing in the digital age, curated by the MIT SMR editors.

The Best of This Week is a roundup of essential articles for managers in the digital age, including content from MIT Sloan Management Review and other publications around the globe, curated by MIT SMR editors.

During the COVID-19 crisis, we at MIT SMR want to support our readers by offering free resources to help during the pandemic.

Escalating work demands and chronic overload can leave employees burned out as they struggle to meet expectations, but employers can address the issue by making reasonable and feasible changes to how work is done. How can companies address overload and its consequences while avoiding the flaws inherent in flexibility as an accommodation? Consider three research-based conditions organizations should foster.

National Geographic explores why Zoom calls leave us with a perplexing sense of being drained while having accomplished nothing. The fact is, perceiving subtle social cues takes little conscious effort in person, but virtual interactions can be exhausting. Hyperfocused on searching for nonverbal cues that it cant find, the brain becomes overwhelmed, particularly when using the Brady Bunch-style gallery view. (Anyone else need a nap?)

Research Updates From MIT SMR

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Working from home during a pandemic isnt easy for anyone, but it can be even tougher for working parents. Left unchecked, the challenges faced by employees trying to work in managed chaos could torpedo their productivity and creativity. Leaders and companies need to move rapidly to gain quick wins to help employees manage their work lives now and to prepare for longer-term changes.

Behavioral science is a powerful tool that can be used to direct human behaviors toward sustainable outcomes. But too often, it focuses downstream, on changing end users behavior, rather than upstream, on earlier design processes. A recent panel report explores the untapped potential of design behavior for sustainability and why engaging with diverse stakeholders is critical.

Sustainability and digitization, two significant global business trends over the past several years, have developed more or less independently of each other and are too often treated as distinct concerns. But sustainable practices are good for the environment and beneficial for business, too. Spanning four areas social, economic, technological, and environmental corporate digital responsibility merges sustainability and digitization.

I dont think of resilience as bouncing back. There is no back. Clocks dont go backwards. Calendars dont go backwards. Were moving forward. And the ability for people to move forward with hope is when you see resilience helping them bounce forward through that and then building trust. Every action, every decision you make throughout this crisis, is either going to build trust or degrade from it.

Eric McNulty, associate director of the National Preparedness Leadership Initiative at Harvard University, in this weeks Three Big Points podcast episode, Leading Through a Crisis Day by Day

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The Best of This Week - MIT Sloan

Human Behavior

On the Wing – Keypennews

May 1, 2020 medical

Language in theTime of Plague

Stay safe, the cashier at the checkout said as I was putting my groceries back in the cart and getting ready to head out.

It was a couple of weeks after Gov. Inslee had issued his stay-at-home order in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. I hadnt been to the store or anywhere, for that matter since the day of the proclamation. Amazingly I had managed to keep my refrigerator stocked to the gills for a while, but after two weeks my supplies were dwindling and I could no longer delay a trip to the store.

I had recently begun to notice that Stay safe and Stay healthy were becoming the preferred ways to end emails between friends, but that moment at the store was the first time I had heard that spoken in real life. Along with keeping the required distance from the customer in line ahead of me, it was a clear acknowledgment of these perilous times.

My mind was still on pre-coronavirus autopilot though. In that version of the interaction the cashier would have said Have a nice day or something similar. It took me a couple of seconds to recalibrate and respond. The world was different now, there were new versions of the essential scripts we live by. Quick, get the updates.

Thanks you too! I replied, my timing a few milliseconds off, adding my usual See ya! as I pushed my cart towards the exit. I smiled; this may be a different world, but we still live for our connections with others.

The scripts we all share the blueprints that guide our interactions exist to make sure that those connections dont get frayed. Those blueprints are the subject of conversation analysis, a branch of linguistics and other social sciences that study human behavior. Whether its sharing jokes with friends, showing someone how to operate a piece of machinery, or engaging in the brief back-and-forth with the cashier at the grocery store, our verbal interactions are governed by an intricately timed choreography that all of us as members of the same community have internalized.

Stock expressions serve as road signs as we negotiate each interaction. In a setting like the grocery checkout an important marker is Have a nice day, a phrase spoken at the conclusion of the interaction, typically by the cashier. The timing of that phrase is very precise: it comes after the transaction is complete, your groceries are back in the cart and youve already taken the first steps away from the checkout area. It will feel too soon if the cashier says that if youre still in the middle of paying, and too late if youre already 20 feet away from the checkout.

My own response to that phrase in those cases is often a quick You too see ya! Whether or not I will go on to have a nice day is immaterial; in a situation where the participants in the interaction are at best casual acquaintances and have business to transact, Have a nice day is nothing more than a cheerful equivalent of Bye or See you later. Nothing more, nothing less.

That does not mean that a cashier, for example, is required to close the conversation with that phrase. It does mean that if they do, the exchange will most likely follow the pattern set in the conversations blueprint.

So now lets circle back to what the cashier said as I was leaving that day.

Stay safe was a departure from the script as I knew it. It wasnt entirely a rewrite of that script, however; the phrase was spoken at the exact point in the interaction where the default Have a nice day would have been, so clearly it had replaced it, at least at that moment.

Such defaults are not changed lightly if our interactions are to continue running like well-oiled machines. There has to be a good reason if theyre overridden. That day the cashier chose to conclude the interaction not with the conventional stock expression but with a phrase whose meaning hasnt faded yet. These are dangerous times, that choice said; be careful.

An article I read recently pointed out that our need for comfort these days is real, and its strong. I would add that the need for comfort is reciprocal; we need to be comforted, but we also need to comfort others, even if its just by altering a short phrase in a well-practiced script spoken to a customer at the grocery store checkout.

Maybe the linguist in me is reading too much into this. Maybe, but my gratitude for that moment of shared concern was very real.

Stay safe out there.

Joseph Pentheroudakis has a doctorate in linguistics. He writes from Herron Island.

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On the Wing - Keypennews

Human Behavior

Yellowstone’s wolves 25 years after reintroduction: The effects on hunters and human safety – KSL.com

May 1, 2020 medical

Editor's note: This is the fourth and final part in a series of articles looking at the impact of reintroducing wolves in Yellowstone National Park 25 years ago. For a look into its effect on ranchers, click here.

YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK Early conservationists and hunters were unenthusiastic about predators generally and wolves in particular. President Theodore Roosevelt, among the nations most prolific and celebrated hunters, whose administration drastically expanded predator eradication programs referred to wolves as "the beast of waste and desolation." Many of Roosevelts spiritual successors still reflect this view.

But what is fact? What is fiction? And what is exaggeration?

Wolves prey on elk and humans prey on elk that much is clear. But evidence suggests wolves and hunters prey predominantly on separate segments of elk populations. A 10-year study of wolf predation found that the average age of a wolf-killed elk cow varied between 13 and 16 years old. Hunter-killed cow elk average between 2 and 6 years old and constitute the most fertile, reproducing population. Although the study also said, "regulated hunter harvest of young adult females is unlikely to reduce elk numbers" alone.

The greatest impact by wolves on elk numbers and thus hunting opportunity likely results from wolf-killed calves. It's important to note that mountain lions, and bears have been shown to prey more heavily on calves than wolves, and there are still questions regarding how much natural predation adds to or replaces loss to winter, disease, and starvation.

There have been drastic reductions in some elk populations and corresponding hunting and viewing opportunities. Many hunters in tracking both real and perceived reductions since wolves were reintroduced remain convinced wolves are to blame. Thanks to 25 years of data, we now know this interpretation, though popular, is likely inaccurate exaggerating the effects of wolves and neglecting dozens of less publicized influences that have occurred in parallel with wolf recovery, such as a warming climate. For more on this topic make sure to read this previous article in this series.

Beyond population fluctuations caused by dozens of factors, wolves along with other recovered predator populations may have also affected elk distribution behavior. Anecdotally, hunters and outfitters may see fewer elk in areas where they once congregated in greater abundance, but observations may not reflect actual numbers. The best indicator of elk population health and viability remains proximity to population objectives.

Elk herds in Idaho, Wyoming and Montana are all reported as generally within or above population objectives. Idaho is even reporting hunter harvests matching the historic highs of the 80s and 90s prior to wolf reintroduction.

With depictions of wolves in nursery rhymes, folk tales, TV and movies, it is natural to have questions regarding the safety of people who share the landscape with these long-absent predators. According to Yellowstones chief wildlife biologist Doug Smith, there were roughly 20 attacks on humans in North America during the 20th century and all nonfatal. He noted that some attacks have since occurred and two of them were fatal. Other estimates put the number of documented wolf attacks at 32 since 1781. Zero attacks have occurred in Greater Yellowstone in the 25 years since wolves were reintroduced.

There are a number of recent incidents worth discussion. In 2018 a research student climbed a tree to avoid a wolf pack. The encounter did not appear to be aggressive and it is thought that the pack in question may have denned in the area. In 2019, a camper in Banff National Park in Alberta was attacked, largely mirroring a similar event in Minnesota six years before that the states first known wolf attack.

A fatal attack occurred in 2010 near Anchorage, Alaska, when Candice Berner, a school teacher, was killed by a pack of wolves. The participating wolves were identified and killed. They were determined to be healthy and are not believed to have been habituated or food-conditioned, which is normally the case in wolf attacks. The attack remains troubling and unique.

By comparison, mountain lions are blamed with about two dozen fatal attacks in North America in the last 100 years, according to Outside. Fatal and nonfatal bear attacks in Greater Yellowstone averaged between one and two a year. The likelihood of being attacked by a bear or mountain lion is extremely remote wolves even more so.

Attacks by predators are largely tied to habituation, food conditioning, starvation or disease. Even more so in the case of wolves, according to Smith. He stated that unlike bears and mountain lions, wolves "never attack a person on their first encounter with a human." He added in a recent Facebook live video that, "wolves are probably the least dangerous large carnivore in North America." The data seems to support Smiths belief.

Like all wild animals, wolves should be viewed from an appropriate distance. People who share space with all kinds of wildlife should be diligent about keeping food and trash inaccessible. Whether a wolf, bear, elk, bison, or squirrel; habituated animals represent the greatest threat to people. Regarding human behavior and its effects on animals, it's often been said, "wildlife management is comparatively easy; human management is difficult."

For centuries, land and wildlife management were predominantly calibrated toward agricultural and hunting interests. And while farming, ranching and hunting remain central to management strategies, they now share that space with a growing interest in preserving and restoring natural systems. Wolves are, in many ways, emblematic of this shift in attitudes and policy.

In the early days "people werent thinking about ecosystems," Smith said. Yellowstone and other areas were set aside mainly in an effort to preserve scenery and geologic curiosities. Historically, predators were excluded from the charge to preserve wildlife, even in protected areas. As a result, coherent, intact ecosystems have been mostly relegated to the worlds most remote reaches, if not lost completely.

Since the restoration of species including wolves, Yellowstone is the closest thing we have to a fully-intact ecosystem within the contiguous United States. We live in a world that is "largely artificial." Smith says. For him, restoring Yellowstones ecosystem is about "restoring nature in the midst of humanity."

"Its real. Its not artificial and contrived," he said. "Wolves really are a lure for people ... people are streaming in to see wolves because its real nature, its real life and we dont get that anymore. It means a great deal to a lot of people the world even."

Illustrating this point, retired interpretive ranger Rick McIntyre shared a number of stories including his partnership with Make A Wish, helping kids realize their dream of seeing wolves in the wild. According to Smith, there is likely no better place to see wolves than Yellowstone.

The story of wildlife and the story of public land management is really the story of people. Not everyone has the same vision of what stewardship or responsible use means, but if we substitute fact with fiction, and reality with fable, we cripple the ability to be wise stewards. People and wildlife alike suffer as a result.

"Wolves are among the most studied species in the world, Smith says, adding they have been closely monitored and studied despite the National Park Services charge to have "a light touch."

He added in a recent Facebook live interview, if wolves are not closely studied, "people will make stories up."

More here:
Yellowstone's wolves 25 years after reintroduction: The effects on hunters and human safety - KSL.com

Human Behavior

How a Warming Climate Could Affect the Spread of Diseases Similar to COVID-19 – Scientific American

May 1, 2020 medical

Scientists have long known that the rise in average global temperatures is expanding the geographical presence of vector-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue fever, because the animals that transmit them are adapting to more widespread areas. The link between respiratory illnesses, including influenza and COVID-19, and a warming planet is less clear. But some scientists are concerned that climate change could alter the relationship between our bodys defenses and such pathogens. These modifications could include the adaptation of microbes to a warming world, changes in how viruses and bacteria interact with their animal hosts, and a weakened human immune response.

The immune system is our natural defense against harmful substances. When a respiratory pathogensuch as the new SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19enters the body through the airways, it damages cells by taking over their machinery and making more copies of itself. The injured cells release signaling proteins called cytokines that communicate with other parts of the body to activate an immune response against the foreign invaders.

Mammals have evolved another, more basic defense against pathogens: an elevated body temperature relative to that of their environment. As a result of this change, many microbes that are adapted to cooler temperatures are unable to endure a warm mammalian body.

A lot of organisms in the environment cannot survive [at] 37 degrees Celsius, the standard for normal human body temperature, says Arturo Casadevall, chair of molecular microbiology and immunology at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. So our temperature is almost like a thermal barrier that protects us against many organisms.

The higher ambient temperatures expected with a changing climate could, however, favor pathogens that will be more difficult for peoples body to fight. In a paper published in mBIO in 2019, Casadevall and his colleagues described a drug-resistant fungusCandida auristhat was first isolated from a person in 2009 and emerged on three different continents in the past decade. The common denominator for these emergence events was temperature, the researchers say. The finding, they note, may be the first example of a fungus adapting to a higher temperature and breaching humans thermal barrier.

But a funguswhich does not require a host to replicateis very different than a virus, such as SARS-CoV-2. That virus is thought to have jumped from bats to humansboth warm-blooded hostspotentially via an intermediate animal. If cold-blooded creatures start to adapt to warmer conditions, they could unleash a slew of new pathogens to which humans may not have immunity.

Imagine that the world is hotter and that lizards adapt to live in temperatures very close to yours. Then their viruses adapt to higher temperatures, Casadevall says. We have two pillars of defense: temperature and advanced immunity. In a warming world, we may lose the pillar of temperature if the [pathogens] adapt to be close to our temperature.

This issue could be exacerbated as species move to historically cooler climates and higher elevations while the world warms. In a 2017 study published in Science, researchers estimated that, on average, land species are shifting toward the poles at a rate of 17 kilometers per decade, while marine species are doing so at 72 kilometers per decade. Such a reshuffling of species around the planet could mean that animals that host unique disease-causing microorganisms will live side by side with those that would not normally host them, creating new transmission pathways.

A warming world could also have an effect on humans other defense mechanism: the immune system. Researchers have been aware for years that factors such as a lack of sleep and stress could weaken it. Last year, in a study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, scientists in Tokyo also discovered that heat reduced mices immune response to a flu virus. The researchers infected otherwise healthy, young adult female mice with the influenza A virus, one of two types that cause seasonal flu epidemics in humans. The mice were housed for seven days in one of three temperature-controlled spaces: at four, 22 and 36 degrees C, respectively. The study authors found the immune systems of the mice exposed to the highest ambient temperature did not fight the virus as effectively as the other two groups.

Specifically, the researchers noted that the mice in the hottest room ate less than those in the cooler rooms and lost 10 percent of their body weight in the first 24 hours of being exposed to higher temperatures. People often lose their appetite when they feel sick, said study author Takeshi Ichinohe, an associate professor at the University of Tokyo, in a press release. If someone stops eating long enough to develop a nutritional deficit, that may weaken the immune system and increase the likelihood of getting sick again. When Ichinohe and his colleague Miyu Moriyama, then at the University of Tokyo, supplemented the mices diet with sugar or short-chain fatty acids (which are commonly produced by intestinal bacteria), those animals were able to mount a normal immune response.

EllenF. Foxman,an assistant professor of laboratory medicine and immunobiology at the Yale School of Medicine, who was not involved in the study, expresses caution about making a direct link between heat and the mices immune response. The temperature had an effect on the animals behavior, which had an effect on immunity, and the mice didn't form as good of an antiviral immune response in this particular type of flu infection, she says. In contrast, Foxmans own 2015 PNAS study showed that the very first steps of the immune response to fight a cold virus were, in fact, boosted by higher temperatures and depressed by lower ones.

The University of Tokyo researchers question if the weakened immune response seen in their study is the result of a nutritional deficit or the fact that the immune system is hampered by heat altering the activity of certain genes. And they say further experiments are needed. Nevertheless, climate change could potentially disrupt the human immune responseeither directly via higher temperature or indirectly via its effects on global food securitya scenario suggested by a 2019 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report.

Foxman, who acknowledges the validity of the Tokyo mouse study, believes it is a leap to conclude from its results that warming makes humans more directly susceptible to viral infections. But she acknowledges that changes in climate could alter the number of host animals, their activity and human exposure to them.

I think that climate change disrupts a lot of patternsof human behavior, of insect vectors and even [of] batsfrom which the COVID-19 virus and other deadly coronaviruses likely originated, Foxman says. The disruptions could indirectly alter the interactions between diseases and human defenses in ways scientists have yet to fully understand.

Read more about the coronavirus outbreakhere.

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How a Warming Climate Could Affect the Spread of Diseases Similar to COVID-19 - Scientific American

Human Behavior

Leaders reacted to COVID with the same tools and without regard to actual dynamics | TheHill – The Hill

May 1, 2020 medical

Politicians are not scientists, yet they have promised that their decisions to contain COVID-19 will be based onscience, not politics. Is that even possible?

The science of COVID-19 still has more questions than facts. The first models forecasting calamity alarmed us, but their predictions have been way off. Each week brings a new revelation. The first cases arrived earlier than the ones we caught. The number of us infected are orders of magnitude higher than we can count. Ventilators, we are learning, may be harmful. And, though tragically fatal for some, COVID-19 appears to kill less often than we first feared. Scientists are working at break-neck speed, but they are learning as they go along.

Reacting to the specter of overwhelmed hospitals and ventilator rationing, leaders across the country reacted, mostly preemptively, with the same blunt tools and without regard to the actual dynamics of the epidemic on their ground. This was precautionary but not scientific. Every epidemic is local.

How it spreads and who is affected depends on factors very specific to a population. What happens in Wuhan, Milan, and New York doesnt necessarily happen in San Diego, Houston, and Oklahoma City. As it turned out, in some places the responses have been insufficient and come too late, in other places overbroad and unnecessarily costly.

The decisions affecting our lives involve more than science; they are explicit judgments about human behavior. Are we best served by restrictive mandates or can we trust in the common sense of most people? Even before officials closed schools and ordered people into their homes,most peoplehad started avoiding gatherings and unnecessary travel.

They had started applying disinfectants and stopped shaking hands. They had begun telecommuting and staying home when they were sick. For many, self-protective behaviors will now becemented into their lives. Our need for ongoing government mandates depends heavily on whether we believe these new social norms to be durable.

The stay-at-home orders applied in many places throughout the country were decisive actions to protect us from a scary pathogen in the face of uncertainty about our medical response. Many have rallied around flattening the curve, yet even after the curve is flatsome leadersargue that we all should remain sheltered. Others prefer a stepwise return to normality, tolerating some risk, as long as hospitals can cope. Where we strike the balance between pacing the COVID-19 epidemic and preserving constitutional freedoms and economic health is a question of scienceandpolitics.

All of us, not only government leaders and scientists, have weighty decisions in front of us: Where and when do we relax the restrictions? Who should go back to work? When will it be safe to open the schools? Should the elderly and the ill remain sheltered?

These decisions are human judgments, based on incomplete data, and value-laden. Decision-makers are reacting to uncertainty and fear and their decisions reflect, more or less, the tolerance they have for risk (and blame). With so little science to go on, decision-makers are influenced by their own priorities, hopes and biases. And, given our polarized political environment, also, their politics.

We all may not have the experience to digest and evaluate the science, but we all have a stake in the outcome. Unfortunately, we remain in a crisis mode with decisions being made behind closed doors and issued to us with prepared briefings. The media is full of information, yet the opportunities for critical engagement either by scientists or the public in decisions do not exist.

Perhaps, to start, our state and local representatives should hold televised hearings and town halls discussions to have the experts explain the facts and reasoning behind their analysis and response. Even the best science deserves careful scrutiny that is what makes science what it is. Whatever the forum, decision-makers need to be hearing from more of us.

Making decisions to respond to COVID-19more openly and with more deliberation will not only make them less vulnerable to error but also will better ensure their acceptance and success. Without this, we risk misinformation, distrust, and, as we are unfortunately seeing, civil disobedience. The policies we implement must be optimized for local contexts and diverse populations, be mindful of obstacles to implementation and avoid unintended and inequitable consequences.

In times of crisis, we tend to put ourdemocratic principleson pause. No one should be under the illusion that the decisions being made today are objective. Let the scientists continue to inform the people. But let everyday people also help get the science and the politics of COVID-19 right.

Rajiv Bhatia, M.D., MPH, is a practicing physician in Northern California and an affiliated assistant clinical professor of medicine at Stanford University. He is a former deputy health officer for San Francisco and the co-founder of Human Impact Partners, a non-profit that brings health data and science to complex social decisions.

See the rest here:
Leaders reacted to COVID with the same tools and without regard to actual dynamics | TheHill - The Hill

Human Behavior

New Website Promotes Biosecurity on Farms | Northern Region – Lancaster Farming

May 1, 2020 medical

BURLINGTON, Vt. There has never been a time more critical to farm biosecurity than the COVID-19 pandemic, which threatens to cripple operations by impacting large numbers of workers.

A new Healthy Farms, Healthy Agriculture website was intended to help farmers and ranchers learn about problems that affect animals such as African swine flu. But its launch, in early January, almost eerily coincided with the global spread of coronavirus, which has infected more than 1 million people in the U.S. alone.

In user-friendly detail, the website is a one-stop shop and hub for biosecurity resources that tells farms how to prepare, detect and respond to disease, and how to implement a plan for dealing with such crises.

Drawing on numerous sources, the sites content was developed by research associate professor Julie M. Smith, DVM, of the University of Vermonts Department of Animal and Veterinary Sciences; and designed by Joanna Cummings, of UVM Extension.

The biggest challenge is developing the recognition that biosecurity matters, Smith said. Its very hard for farmers to see themselves as needing to convey to people coming on the farm that they could be a risk.

For example, a farmer might be reluctant to remind a visiting veterinarian to wear clean booties, or deal with healthy animals first before helping sick ones, instead of vice versa. Likewise, workers with a variety of tasks should tackle those in clean areas before going to the cow barn to move manure.

Some of these steps are easy and dont cost much, but it takes mindfulness, Smith said. Unfortunately, its not until youve experienced the disaster that you want somebody to tell you what to do. Then it can be too late.

Getting people to close the proverbial barn door before the horse leaves is another big challenge, because its extremely difficult for overworked farm owners and managers to take time out of busy work schedules to develop effective biosecurity plans.

But the website, under the Create a Plan heading, tells how to build, save and continually improve upon a plan by doing it in steps, which eliminates the daunting task of a long, drawn-out project.

Looking beyond COVID-19, Smith believes the crisis might have a couple of silver linings for agriculture. First, the pandemic clearly shows the damage a new disease can cause and the need to be proactive. So when coronavirus subsides, farms without good biosecurity plans will hopefully adopt one.

Equally, if not more important, the population at large will have a better understanding of the hardships agriculture goes through when an animal-related disease such as African swine flu or Avian influenza strikes a farm. Having been forced to stay at home, practice social distancing and intensify personal hygiene, people might empathize with farmers instead of complaining about the increased cost of pork or eggs, Smith said.

The Healthy Farms, Healthy Agriculture website is one part of a much larger, five-year biosecurity research project funded by a $7.4 million USDA grant, involving a half-dozen universities across the country. The projects main focus is gaining a better understanding of human behavior and biosecurity, to see what influences, from economic impact to improved communications, would make farmers take the issue more seriously and adopt plans of their own.

When were talking about biosecurity I like to think about layers of an onion because theres a lot of different practices that need to be part of this constellation of biosecurity, Smith said. Its having all those layers together that actually protect the health of the farm system.

Its really important to think about what are the things that are happening every day that could pose a risk to the farm, she said. You need to take steps to prevent the introduction of disease.

The website identifies potential disease sources such as other livestock, visitors and wildlife; vulnerable farm areas such as maternity pens, facilities for newborns and feed storage sites; and animals that are most susceptible such as baby calves, young stock and animals that have just given birth.

One of the sites most important messages is that biosecurity is a team effort involving anyone connected to the farm including owners, employees, veterinarians, Extension agents, milk and feed haulers, service providers and other visitors.

They all have the potential to either bring or take away infectious agents or pests that could harm your animals, or animals on other farms, the website says. Think of them as members of a biosecurity community with their own responsibilities to ensure that farm animals are protected.

And now more than ever, farm workers, too.

To view the website, visit healthyagriculture.org

For additional information, visit agbiosecurityproject.org

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New Website Promotes Biosecurity on Farms | Northern Region - Lancaster Farming

Human Behavior

Deadly Pathogen Alters Honey Bee Behavior to Gain Access to Foreign Hives, Researchers Find – EcoWatch

May 1, 2020 medical

"Planet of the Humans" by the end of April had more than 4.7 million views and fairly high scores at the movie critic review aggregator Rotten Tomatoes. The documentary has received glowing reviews from numerous climate "deniers" whose names are familiar to those in the climate community, including Steve Milloy, Marc Morano, and James Delingpole. Some environmentalists who have seen the movie are beginning to oppose wind and solar projects that are absolutely necessary to slow climate change.

The film by these two "progressive" filmmakers may succeed where Fox News and right-wing talk radio have failed: to undermine humanity's last best hope for positive change. As energy journalist Ketan Joshi wrote, the film is "selling far-right, climate-denier myths from nearly a decade ago to left-wing environmentalists in the 2020s."

The film follows Gibbs as he visits various green technology sites in the United States and ostensibly learns that each one is just as bad as the fossil fuel infrastructure that it would replace. Unfortunately, the movie is littered with misleading, skewed, and outdated scenes.

"Planet of the Humans"' approach is fundamentally flawed Gibbs focuses almost exclusively on the imperfections of technologies like solar panels, wind turbines, biomass, and electric cars without considering their ability to reduce carbon and other pollutants. The film suggests that because no source of energy is perfect, all are bad, thus implying that the very existence of human civilization is the problem while offering little in the way of alternative solutions.

A Badly Outdated Portrait of Solar and Wind

In an interview with Reuters, Michael Moore summarized the premise of the film: "I assumed solar panels would last forever. I didn't know what went into the making of them."

It's true. Solar panels and wind turbines don't last forever (though they do last several decades), and like every other industrial product, they require mining and manufacturing of raw materials. Sadly, that's about as deep as the film delves into quantifying the environmental impacts of renewable energy versus fossil fuels. In fact, the misinformation in the film is at times much worse than ignorance.

In one scene, author and film co-producer Ozzie Zehner falsely asserts, "You use more fossil fuels [manufacturing renewables infrastructure] than you're getting benefit from. You would have been better off burning the fossil fuels in the first place instead of playing pretend."

That's monumentally wrong. A 2017 study in Nature Energy found that when accounting for manufacturing and construction, the lifetime carbon footprints of solar, wind, and nuclear power are about 20 times smaller than those of coal and natural gas, even when the latter include expensive carbon capture and storage technology. The energy produced during the operation of a solar panel and wind turbine is 26 and 44 times greater than the energy needed to build and install them, respectively. There are many life-cycle assessment studies arriving at similar conclusions.

The film's case is akin to arguing that because fruit contains sugar, eating strawberries is no healthier than eating a cheesecake.

It's true that the carbon footprint of renewable energy is not zero. But the film somehow fails to mention that it's far lower than the fossil fuel alternatives, instead falsely suggesting (with zero supporting evidence) that renewables are just as bad. The closest defense of that argument comes when Zehner claims that wind and solar energy cannot displace coal, and instead retired coal power plants are being replaced by even larger natural gas plants.

In reality, coal power generation in the U.S. has declined by about half (over 1 trillion kilowatt-hours) over the past decade, and it's true that natural gas has picked up about two-thirds of that slack (670 kWh). But growth in renewables has accounted for the other one-third (370 kWh). As a result, power sector carbon emissions in the U.S. have fallen by one-third since 2008 and continue to decline steadily. In fact, electricity is the only major sector in the U.S. that's achieving significant emissions reductions.

It's true that natural gas is a fossil fuel. To reach zero emissions, it must be replaced by renewables with storage and smart grids. But thus far the path to grid decarbonization in the U.S. has been a success story that the film somehow portrays as a failure. Moreover, that decarbonization could be accelerated through policies like pricing carbon pollution, but the film does not once put a single second of thought into policy solutions.

In perhaps its most absurd scene, Gibbs and Zehner visit a former solar facility in Daggett, California, built in the mid-1980s and replaced 30 years later. Gazing upon the sand-covered landscape of the former facility, Gibbs declares in an ominous tone, "It suddenly dawned on me what we were looking at: a solar dead zone."

Daggett is located in the Mojave Desert. Sand is the natural landscape. Solar farms don't create dead zones; in fact, some plants thrive under the shade provided by solar panels.

It suddenly dawned on me how hard the film was trying to portray clean energy in a negative light.

A Shallow Dismissal of Electric Vehicles

In another science, Gibbs travels to a General Motors facility in Lansing, Michigan, circa 2010, as GM showcased its then-new Chevy Volt plug-in electric hybrid vehicle. Gibbs interviews a representative from the local municipal electric utility provider, who notes that they generate 95% of their supply by burning coal, and that the power to charge the GM facility's EVs will not come from renewables in the near future.

That is the full extent of the discussion of EVs in the film. Viewers are left to assume that because these cars are charged by burning coal, they're just greenwashing. In reality, because of the high efficiency of electric motors, an electric car charged entirely by burning coal still produces less carbon pollution than an internal combustion engine car (though more than a hybrid). The U.S. Department of Energy has a useful tool for comparing carbon emissions between EVs, plug-in hybrids, conventional hybrids, and gasoline-powered cars for each state. In Michigan, on average, EVs are the cleanest option of all, as is the case for the national average power grid. In West Virginia, with over 90% electricity generated from coal, hybrids are the cleanest option, but EVs are still cleaner than gasoline cars.

In short, EVs are an improvement over gasoline-powered cars everywhere, and their carbon footprints will continue to shrink as renewables expand to supply more of the power grid.

A Valid Critique of Wood Biomass

The film devotes a half hour to the practice of burning trees for energy. That's one form of biomass, which also includes burning wood waste, garbage, and biofuels. Last year, 1% of U.S. electricity was generated by burning wood, but it accounted for 30% of the film run time.

In fairness, Europe is a different story, where wood biomass accounts for around 5% of electricity generation, and which imports a lot of wood chips from America. It's incentivized because the European Union considers burning wood to be carbon neutral, and it can thus be used to meet climate targets. That's because new trees can be planted to replace those removed, and the EU assumes the wood being burned would have decayed and released its stored carbon anyway.

There are numerous problems with those assumptions, one of which is unavoidable: time. Burning trees is close to carbon neutral once a replacement tree grows to sufficient maturity to recapture the lost carbon, but that takes many decades. In the meantime, the carbon released into the atmosphere accelerates the climate crisis at a time when slashing emissions is increasingly urgent. That's why climate scientists are increasingly calling on policymakers to stop expanding this practice. So has 350.org founder Bill McKibben since 2016, despite his depiction in the film as a villainous proponent of clearcutting forests to burn for energy.

It's complicated, but the carbon footprint of biomass depends on where the wood comes from. Burning waste (including waste wood) as biomass that would decay anyway is justifiable, but also generally only practical at a relatively small scale. A more detailed investigation of the wood biomass industry could make for a worthwhile documentary. It's still a small-time player, but it does need to stay that way.

The Bottom Line

Gibbs asks, "Is it possible for machines made by industrial civilization to save us from industrial civilization?"

Why not? Industrial civilization has a non-zero climate and environmental footprint, but the impact of green technologies like EVs, wind turbines, and solar panels is much smaller than the alternatives. They represent humanity's best chance to avoid a climate catastrophe.

The filmmakers call for an end to limitless economic growth and consumption. It's difficult to envision that goal being achieved anytime soon, but even if it is, human civilization will continue to exist and require energy. To avert a climate crisis, that energy must be supplied by the clean renewable technologies pilloried in the film. To expand on the earlier analogy, the filmmakers seem to believe we should improve nutrition not by eating healthier foods like strawberries, but rather by eating a bit less cheesecake.

Like Fox News and other propaganda vehicles, the film presents one biased perspective via carefully chosen voices, virtually all of whom are comfortable white men. It applies an environmental purity test that can seem convincing for viewers lacking expertise in the topic. Any imperfect technology which is every technology is deemed bad. It's a clear example of the perfect being the enemy of the good. In reality, this movie is the enemy of humanity's last best chance to save itself and countless other species from unchecked climate change through a transition to cleaner technologies.

Unemployment claims slow in Ohio, but still exceed 1 million: Overnight News Links – cleveland.com

May 1, 2020 medical

Ohios coronavirus unemployment claims now exceed 1 million, though the number of new claims continues to fall (cleveland.com)

Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine to extend stay-at-home order expiring May 1 (cleveland.com)

Gov. Mike DeWines coronavirus response tops all other governors in approval rating, national poll says (cleveland.com)

Coronavirus deaths eclipse 11-year Vietnam War casualties in 9 weeks; pandemic among deadliest U.S. events (cleveland.com)

Human behavior, anxiety and privilege underlie the dystopian feeling of our new coronavirus norms (cleveland.com)

The Ohio Department of Health reported the first three cases of coronavirus on March 9. On Wednesday, April 30, it reported 18,027.Rich Exner, cleveland.com

975 Ohioans dead from coronavirus: Gov. Mike DeWines Thursday update (cleveland.com)

Mapping Ohios 18,027 coronavirus cases, updates and trends (cleveland.com)

Sen. Rob Portman asks Treasury Department to make coronvirus loans available to small-business owners with criminal records (cleveland.com)

Ford Motor Company will require that workers wear face masks and have their temperatures taken when it reopens U.S. plants (cleveland.com)

What Put-in-Bay wants you to know about summer vacations amid coronavirus (cleveland.com)

See which grocery stores, big box retailers are requiring customers to wear face coverings (cleveland.com)

Lake Erie charter fishing to resume in Ohio on Friday with restrictions (cleveland.com)

Man found dead in grocery store air ducts was missing for eight days, family says (cleveland.com)

Suspect in fatal shooting of man at East Cleveland convenience store arrested in Tennessee (cleveland.com)

Off-duty Mogadore officer struck on motorcycle, assaulted, police say (cleveland.com)

Man charged in accidental shooting that killed uncle during 25th birthday party in Cleveland (cleveland.com)

Woman was getaway driver in deadly shooting of 15-year-old boy in Cleveland, police say (cleveland.com)

Two brothers -- one naked -- attack older brother outside Berea home (cleveland.com)

Geauga County drug bust includes suspect in fatal overdose (WOIO Channel 19)

Lorain County Sheriffs office warns residents of phishing scam (WOIO Channel 19)

46 more cases of COVID-19 coronavirus confirmed in Cleveland, but no new deaths (cleveland.com)

Cleveland Mayor Frank Jackson extends COVID-19 coronavirus proclamation of civil emergency through May (cleveland.com)

Jimmy Dimora among 837 Elkton inmates eligible for release, transfer due to coronavirus per federal judges order (cleveland.com)

Some of the Cleveland-areas biggest employers say employees will keep working from home despite Ohios reopening (cleveland.com)

With Cleveland in the doghouse, Cuyahoga County Solid Waste District calls for recycling, done right (cleveland.com)

Cleveland Hopkins International to get additional $2.9 million in federal funding (WOIO Channel 19)

MetroHealth creates coronavirus rehabilitation unit (cleveland.com)

Greater Cleveland Food Bank keeps feeding the thousands of people who show up weekly on distribution day (photos) (cleveland.com)

Cleveland-area small businesses receive Citizens Bank grants for needs related to the coronavirus crisis (cleveland.com)

Looking back at the coronavirus: Stirring Cleveland video may give you chills when it asks what youll remember (cleveland.com)

Kent State University will prepare for three different scenarios for fall semester: in-person, remote and hybrid (cleveland.com)

Kent State University hosts virtual events for 50th commemoration of May 4 shootings: How and when to participate (cleveland.com)

Hiram College pushes back fall start date, offers private dorm rooms out of caution for coronavirus (cleveland.com)

Cleveland federal judge to preside over Lake, Trumbull counties opioid lawsuits against pharmacies in 2021 (cleveland.com)

Mayfield Heights still waiting to learn if Issue 9 will pass (cleveland.com)

South Euclid residents can enter raffle to help citys locally owned restaurants (cleveland.com)

New Cleveland Heights-University Heights school levy could reappear on November ballot (cleveland.com)

Is this Jellystone Park? Four bears creep into Ashtabula County backyard (WKYC Channel 3)

Berea Municipal Court institutes health safeguards, pay cuts (cleveland.com)

Lakewood City School District voters overwhelmingly pass new-money levy (cleveland.com)

Olmsted Falls City Schools superintendent wowed by passage of Issue 29 (cleveland.com)

Olmsted Falls voters renew road, police and fire department levies (cleveland.com)

Voters renew Parma, Brooklyn school levies (cleveland.com)

Parmas Ridge Road repaving project way ahead of schedule (cleveland.com)

Brook Park budget will suffer if companies non-resident employees work permanently from home (cleveland.com)

Stow, Tallmadge area leads Summit County in coronavirus cases, according to updated ZIP code breakdown (cleveland.com)

Allegations of racism, sexism and bullying rise at Akron Art Museum during financial strain caused by coronavirus pandemic (cleveland.com)

Cuyahoga Valley Scenic Railroad cancels train rides through September (cleveland.com)

Education funding cuts seen as likely as Gov. Mike DeWine considers how to balance state budget (cleveland.com)

State crime lab can now distinguish between marijuana and hemp, allowing more pot cases in courts (cleveland.com)

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Unemployment claims slow in Ohio, but still exceed 1 million: Overnight News Links - cleveland.com