All posts by medical

Estimates show uneven stress on hospitals across the state from COVID-19 – WRAL.com

By Tyler Dukes, WRAL investigative reporter

Raleigh, N.C. A group of public health experts say that although North Carolina hospitals are likely a long way off from running out of beds, a recent rise in COVID-19 hospitalizations has had an uneven impact across the state.

In the fourth of a series of briefs assessing statewide hospital capacity, researchers from Duke University and the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill for the first time detailed how the number of patients has shifted in seven different regions across the state.

Hospitalization trends, the authors wrote, "are somewhat more threatening now than they were a month ago."

The areas of greatest concern include the counties surrounding Greenville, Charlotte and Raleigh, which "are experiencing more substantial tightening of near-term capacity than other regions."

The brief was authored by Mark Holmes, director of the Sheps Center for Health Services Research at UNC-CH; Aaron McKethan, a senior policy fellow at the Duke-Margolis Center for Health Policy; and Hilary Campbell, aresearch associate at Duke-Margolis.

The state Department of Health and Human Services as of Thursday counted 857 people hospitalized with COVID-19, and the researchers noted the health care system has been under increased pressure overall as the number of patients has grown.

While it's true that fewer hospital beds are available, the brief notes the growth rate of hospitalizations has decreased overall.

But that decrease has not been uniform.

Their analysis examined hospitalization data across Public Health Surveillance Team regions collections of counties that divvy up the state into seven distinct parts.

While statewide, the growth rate of hospitalizations in the week prior to June 12 stood at about 14 percent, that growth was negative for the Fayetteville and Triad areas. But the counties around Greenville saw 43 percent growth in hospitalizations during that period.

In the Triangle, it was about 21 percent.

Researchers project that, at the current statewide growth rate, COVID-19 hospitalizations wouldn't tax the health care system's capacity of normal beds for almost four months. That number varies greatly between regions, from less than two months for the Greenville area to just over three months for the Triangle.

But the study's authors acknowledge that there are plenty of caveats to their projections.

For one, the forecasts are highly dependent on the fluctuating growth rate of hospitalizations, which has seen particularly large changes in recent days.

"What is our best estimate of the growth in COVID-19 hospitalizations over the next month? Is it the growth we have had since May 15? Or is the recently rapidly increasing reported case rate a harbinger of faster growth?" researchers wrote. "This is a key point of uncertainty."

Growth rates in hospitalizations are highly dependent on human behavior, which fuels infection rates. And researchers noted in their brief that policies by federal, state and local officials have appeared to impact that behavior, beginning with responses to dire predictions at the start of the pandemic.

"Policymakers and the public then acted and slowed viral spread. That slowing made forecasts more optimistic, which then led to calls for reopening," researchers wrote. "As population mobility and contact rates have changed and the opportunity for community spread has increased, the number of reported cases has also increased."

Even with a sustained growth in patients, researchers say hospital administrators still have plenty of "relief valves" to ease demand and increase capacity.

Surge beds can allow for more patients. Hospitals can again cut back on elective procedures. And they can take advantage of regional differences to transfer patients where there's more capacity to care for them.

There's also the potential change how the state reopens. But the authors wrote that"any chosen strategy involves complex tradeoffs with profound ethical, social and economic strategies."

"The only true long-term solutions are to fully eradicate the virus and/or develop a broadly effective and safe treatment for the disease it causes."

Here is the original post:
Estimates show uneven stress on hospitals across the state from COVID-19 - WRAL.com

Space Archeologists Uncover Past and Project Future – DesignNews

The recent discovery of a 1940s weather balloon radiosonde wreckage has promoted interest in the little-known realm of space archeology. To learn more about this interesting topic and heritage, Design News reached out to two well-known experts in the field: Dr. Beth O'Leary, Anthropology Professor Emeritus at New Mexico State University (NMSU) and, Dr Alice Gorman, Associate Professor, Flinders University, Adelaide SA. What follows is a portion of that interview.

Design News: What is space archeology? What artifacts do you typically seek?

Researcher retrieves instruments from the remains of early V-2 rockets.(Image Source: NASA V2 WSNM)

Beth O'Leary: Archaeology is the study of the relationships between patterns of material culture (e.g., artifacts, sites and features) and patterns of human behavior. We can study material culture at all times and in all places where humans have been. It can be done on the Earth and off the Earth. My work has focused on the archaeological sites on the Moon, especially Tranquility Base, the Apollo 11 first lunar landing site. As archaeologists in this field, our gaze is mostly focused off Earth, looking into space and on other celestial bodies.

Space Archaeology is the study of material cultural that includes all the material culture in the aerospace and aeronautical realms that relate to the development and support of exoatmospheric realms. It is a huge cultural landscape of materials which are on Earth or have originated there and are now off Earth. Examples can be Voyager 1, now in interstellar space; Vanguard a satellite predicted to be in Earth orbit for another 600 years; and Launch Complex 33 at White Sands Missile Range. So it is a huge range or assemblage of mostly technological components including the radiosonde that was found in Cloudcroft.

Alice Gorman: Space archaeologists are interested in all material culture relating to space exploration. Everything in space at the moment - until there is spacecraft made and launched off-Earth - is connected to places on Earth, like launch sites, tracking antennas, research and test facilities. So, there is an enormous amount to be learnt by studying space sites and artifacts on Earth.

See the article here:
Space Archeologists Uncover Past and Project Future - DesignNews

Temporary Parking Lot In Yellowstone National Park To Be Removed – National Parks Traveler

This temporary parking lot near the Fairy Falls Trailhead in Yellowstone will be removed this fall/NPT file

Altering human behavior is proving harder than providing for humans, at least in the case of a temporary parking area created near the Fairy Falls Trailhead in Yellowstone National Park. And because of that, the parking lot will be removed this fall.

"While the lot has alleviated some traffic congestion, it has not substantially improved traffic flows within the area as originally envisioned," said Yellowstone Superintendent Cam Sholly in an email. "Our data shows that social trailing is actually worse in some areas than previous to the parking lot being installed. And without proper supporting infrastructure, like restrooms and trash cans, litter and human waste have been very prevalent in the area."

Even if the park wanted to install restrooms at the parking area, it couldn't because of the geothermal resources in the area, the superintendent said.

Yellowstone officials back in 2016 broached the idea of building the loton land once traversed by an old stage road. It was needed, they said at the time, because once theexisting 55-spot parking lot at Grand Prismatic Spring filled up, visitors would park on the Loop Road that passed the popular spring. Some even parked in the middle of the road, according to park staff.

This ground near the Fairy Falls Trailhead was turned into the temporary parking area in 2017/NPS file

Ideally, rangers would have been positioned there to manage traffic, but the park didn't have enough personnel to take that approach.

So in 2017 a three-quarters-of-an-acre gravel lot was created near the Fairy Falls Trailhead. While the lot, which could handle about 70 vehicles, was intended for use by only passenger vehicles, buses and RVs frequently used it despite signs that said the lot was off-limit to buses, RVs, and vehicles with trailers.

At the time, a planning document distributed for public comment stated that, "the park would implement monitoring protocols to collect data on transportation capacity, visitor behavior/crowding, and resource impacts, both before and after the opening of the trailhead and parking area. This data would be compared to previous years' data and will assist the park in determining the effectiveness of this parking area and whether more analysis should be done to formalize this into a permanent parking area. If the parking area is not an effective solution to meet the purpose and needs of this project, the park would return the affected area to a natural condition."

The Fairy Falls Trail leads to both Fairy Falls and Imperial Geyser; another major draw, though, is a hill along the route that offers a birds-eye view of the nearby Grand Prismatic Spring in Midway Geyser Basin. Social media and guidebooks started driving so many people to this location that Yellowstone crews constructed an official trail and overlook to replace the many existing social trails on the hill.

The fate of this hardened overlook built in conjunction with the temporary parking lot remains to be determined/NPS file

That trail gradually climbs 105 feet over 0.6 miles from the Fairy Falls Trailhead to an overlook with views of Midway Geyser Basin.At the time, then-Superintendent Dan Wenksaid the trail and overlook provide a different view of Grand Prismatic Spring and minimize the growth of unsightly, unofficial social trails in the process.

The public, however, apparently didn't fully embrace that plan, andsome visitors seemed to gain a sense of entitlement and go where they shouldn't.

"The parking lot has encouraged visitors to get closer to thermal features than previously," Sholly said this week. "While no major resource damage has been documented, that risk exists if the parking lot continues to exist in future years."

A rehabilitation plan to erase the parking area is being developed and will be implemented this fall.

"We will initiate more formal efforts to look at the corridor and determine what options can be developed/evaluated to reduce traffic congestion and maximize the protection of geologic resources in the area," the superintendent said.

What happens to the trail that leads to the overlook of Grand Prismatic Spring will be determined down the road, he said.

The red circle shows where the gravel lot is located/NPS

See the original post here:
Temporary Parking Lot In Yellowstone National Park To Be Removed - National Parks Traveler

Birdsong offers clues to the workings of short-term memory – AroundtheO

When a canary sings, it maintains a memory trace of the notes produced in the previous five to 10 seconds, a process that allows the bird to produce songs with long-range rules or syntactic structure, according to a new study co-written by a neuroscientist at the University of Oregons Phil and Penny Knight Campus for Accelerating Scientific Impact.

In the project, a nine-member team used tiny, head-mounted microscopes to track the activity of the output neurons that reside in a canarys high vocal center, a brain area involved in song motor control. In prior studies, the activity of these neurons had been identified in simpler singers, revealing one of the most precise patterns of neural activity observed in any organism.

Newly applied to the more complex song of canaries, the neurons were seen activating in specific sequential contexts, with the rules of activation spanning up to 40 syllables over four seconds. The teams paper was published online June 17 by the journal Nature.

The research opens a window on theorized hidden states of the brain, a form of short-term memory that integrates past information with ongoing motor control, said Tim Gardner, an associate professor and the DeArmond Chair in Neuro-Engineering in the Knight Campus.

Studying short-term motor memory in canaries provides an opportunity to examine a high-level motor phenomenon in a controlled model system, one that is akin to how studies of the hydrogen atom helped crack the code of quantum mechanics at its inception, Gardner said.

You want to examine a new phenomenon using the simplest possible model that captures the essence of the problem, he said. We often think of songbirds in a similar way. Birdsong is a very quantifiable behavior. Sensory motor learning is 50 percent or more of what brains are all about. Its learning to integrate sensation and action to effectively control movements, in this case, vocalizations.

Songbirds are known to form detailed sensory memories for their tutor songs, and to use the memories to guide the development of their own song to match the tutor over many months. However, until the new study there was no evidence for short-term memory of song that could form a substrate for more complex song rules.

Gardner and Yarden Cohen, then a postdoctoral student and the studys lead author, began the fundamental research in Gardners Boston University lab before Gardner joined the Knight Campus in June 2019. Analyses of the data continued under Gardners tutelage after his arrival at the UO, where he also is affiliated with the Department of Physics.

These birds produce songs that contain hundreds of syllables organized in a way that indicates that they are using the short-term memory of preceding song syllables to guide the choice of the next elements in song, said Cohen, now a neurosurgery research fellow at Massachusetts General Hospital, which is affiliated with the Harvard Medical School.

They create a complex syntax with long-range rules resembling properties of human behaviors like speech, dance and playing a musical instrument, Cohen said. We discovered that their song circuitry reflects the working memory required for their complex syntax.

The research, Gardner said, delivers a new way to study the principles of short-term memory.

If you reflect on the nature of speech, the choice of what to say next is guided by working memory that integrates over many timescales, from the overall aim of the communication episode to the local rules required for proper grammatical form, Gardner said. Canary song is much simpler, but it follows long-range syntax rules such as sing syllable D only if five seconds ago I sang A rather than B.

This deep structure, he said, contains simple similarities to speech where the ending of a sentence is dependent on how the sentence began. In both systems, correlations between past and future parts of the vocalization require a form of short-term memory.

What is clear is that a lot of cellular rules that underlie learning and memory are highly conserved, Gardner said. For example, there are cells in the basal ganglia in songbirds that have incredibly similar patterns of activity to what has been seen in rodents. While brain architecture may differ, the fundamental computations expressed at a cellular level are the same.

Gardner will continue to use the tools used in the study for his work in his Knight Campus lab. Ideally, he said, it could lead to not just to improved understanding of complex behaviors but also to enhanced machine-learning methods.

A lot of what we see in the canary resembles computational models that have been used for speech recognition and general artificial intelligence algorithms, he said. Speech algorithms used in Siri and Google Assistant networks use these types of hidden states seen in the canaries.

Eventually, Cohen said, studying the neural basis of canary song production may make it possible to understand how working memory mechanisms adapt to new conditions or fail when brain circuits are damaged. Developing such a model, he added, may point to new therapies for speech and comprehension deficits that come with aging and in neurodegenerative diseases such as Parkinsons and Alzheimers.

Five grants from the National Institutes of Health supported the research team, which in addition to Gardner and Cohen included seven other members drawn from Boston Universitys biology department and medical school.

By Jim Barlow, University Communications

Read the original:
Birdsong offers clues to the workings of short-term memory - AroundtheO

HILLEL’S TECH CORNER: Making the eyes the windows of disease diagnostics – The Jerusalem Post

Ive covered eye-tracking technology many times over the years, which has since grown to become a saturated market that never ceases to amaze me. After all, we all grew up seeing such futuristic technology in sci-fi movies. Yet here we are life is mimicking art in a way never done before.Eye-tracking technology has been known to detect the identity/presence, attention levels and focus of the user. The information collected from the eyes grants unique insights into human behavior, and it has helped pave the way to the creation of a broad range of vitrual-reality devices and augmented-reality applications.They say the eyes are the windows into the soul, which begs the question: What else can they reveal about us?I recently discovered that eye-tracking technology offers up more than just the cool sci-fi stuff. It can also serve as the basis to address something more serious: disease diagnostics. Allow me to introduce you to AEYE Health.AEYE Health uses advanced machine learning and artificial-intelligence technologies to develop algorithms that can detect a variety of retinal conditions in seconds. This test can be performed in various places such as primary care clinics during the annual check-up, and only the patients that are diagnosed with an eye disease or have suspicious findings are referred to the ophthalmologist for treatment. The company was founded roughly two years ago by two experienced, successful entrepreneurs. It set out to diagnose diseases from retinal images, and is now approaching a crucial milestone: diagnosing images of the fundus.The fundus is the area toward the bottom of the eye that is exactly opposite the lens. Images from it can be used to detect a variety of illnesses, some of which are vision threatening, such as diabetic retinopathy, glaucoma and age-related macular degeneration (AMD). Retinal images can also be used to diagnose systemic diseases: hypertension, cardiovascular diseases, some forms of cancer and Alzheimers disease, to name a few.The diagnosis of fundus images is still primarily conducted by highly skilled and experienced humans, which makes the availability of this crucial procedure extremely limited. That leaves many patients with sight threatening conditions to suffer from entirely preventable blindness and vision impairment, or even premature death.The numbers are staggering, especially when you go beyond vision-related issues. There are an estimated billion people world-wide who are at high risk, out of which about half a billion are diagnosed with diabetes. In the US alone, about 75 million people are considered high risk and should be screened annually. THE VAST majority, however, does not get screened, in part because the procedure is impractical, expensive and because the number of professionals certified to diagnose is limited. This is where AEYE Health comes in.AEYE Healths algorithms are the only ones that can detect a variety of conditions at the highest known degrees of accuracy (specificity and sensitivity), and are designed to work with a variety of cameras, including low-cost, portable hand-held cameras. They are now in the final stages of a multi-site clinical trial required to get the FDAs clearance. The clearance will enable the deployment of their technology commercially, which will make screening patients eyes much more accessible, thus saving them from preventable blindness.AEYE Health was founded by two experienced entrepreneurs: CEO Dr. Zack Dvey-Aharon, an expert in machine-learning who has founded a number of companies in the field, and COO Danny Margalit, who was the co-founder of Aladdin Knowledge System, which went public on the NASDAQ in 1993 and was acquired in 2009.There are currently 14 people working for AEYE Health, and the majority of them are mathematicians and software engineers located in the R&D center in Tel Aviv, while the HQ is located in New York. They are backed by Boston based venture-capital funds Falcon and R-Cubed, and a number of angel investors from Israel and the US, including Club 100 from Israel. To date, the company has raised $3 million.AEYE Health is part of a growing wave of advanced technology companies that use the combined power of neural networks, artificial intelligence, and machine-learning algorithms to make medical treatment much more accessible and cost-effective than it currently is. There are some other giants battling in the same arena, notably Google and IBM. However, in true start-up fashion, AEYE Health is more advanced and widely respected for its under-a-minute noninvasive procedure.Many family doctors and endocrinologists are already using the technology in their clinics, and have expressed great satisfaction. After all, in addition to saving lives and improving quality of life, AEYE Healths technologies also encourage current practitioners to become more specialized and perform more intricate tasks for their patients.I never imagined that in my lifetime such a technology would come into existence; one that would be able to scan eyes for diseases by using almost any camera, from cheap manual scanners to large complicated machines worth tens of thousands of dollars.AEYE is solving a challenge we have all experienced in one way or another: diagnosing medical conditions effectively. The fact that this company is able to do this using our eyes alone is just mind-boggling, and gives me real hope for the future of diagnostics and healthcare in general.

Continue reading here:
HILLEL'S TECH CORNER: Making the eyes the windows of disease diagnostics - The Jerusalem Post

FAMILY MATTERS: Playing to the traits we are born with – Andover Townsman

Dear Doctor,

Our two young children are as different as daylight and darkness. While they are both still young, they are not alike at all.Our son is 8 and our daughter is 6. He is thoughtful and slow to speak or act. She, on the other hand, is talkative, quick to do what she wants, and knows her mind even when its not appropriate. Do behaviors come as inherited? Both children are ours, but we wonder where their differences come from.

Curious

Dear Curious,

Children come as their own package of likely behaviors.

There was a time in behavioral and educational theory that it was believed the mind was a tabula rasa (blank slate) on which could be writ whatever a parent ordained. That theory is not widely accepted today.

Think about it. As you consider your friends and neighbors, do you not have an amazing range of gifts and variability in behavior? Isnt this what makes our species so rich and different? All human behavior is on a curve. Some have less of a trait and others more. Many are average with one trait or another.

Trait psychology is here to stay. Any parent or grandparent will tell you children come with unique and sometimes welcome or unwelcome behavioral tendencies and styles.

For example, in the same family, one may see one child who is giving and unselfish. Another may make Scrooge look generous. Why? The unique inheritance of different neurologies and consequent traits results in variability. What would the world be without variance? It would be colorless indeed.

Now comes the troublesome part. Some traits are much less desirable than others. Thus, it is important to consider a basic trait and the life experiences of any person. The difference between a great artist and a destructive force is less than we might think.

How to enhance the positive and not reinforce the less desirable is, in my opinion, the consummate skill of an effective parent. That will be the topic of another column.

Dr. Larry Larsen is an Andover psychologist. If you would like to ask a question, or respond to one, email him at lrryllrsn@CS.com.

||||

The rest is here:
FAMILY MATTERS: Playing to the traits we are born with - Andover Townsman

30 Years Ago, Romania Deprived Thousands of Babies of Human Contact – The Atlantic

Image above: Izidor Ruckel near his home outside Denver

For his first three years of life, Izidor lived at the hospital.

The dark-eyed, black-haired boy, born June 20, 1980, had been abandoned when he was a few weeks old. The reason was obvious to anyone who bothered to look: His right leg was a bit deformed. After a bout of illness (probably polio), he had been tossed into a sea of abandoned infants in the Socialist Republic of Romania.

To hear more feature stories, get the Audm iPhone app.

In films of the period documenting orphan care, you see nurses like assembly-line workers swaddling newborns out of a seemingly endless supply; with muscled arms and casual indifference, they sling each one onto a square of cloth, expertly knot it into a tidy package, and stick it at the end of a row of silent, worried-looking papooses. The women dont coo or sing to the babies. You see the small faces trying to fathom whats happening as their heads whip by during the wrapping maneuvers.

In his hospital, in the Southern Carpathian mountain town of Sighetu Marmaiei, Izidor would have been fed by a bottle stuck into his mouth and propped against the bars of a crib. Well past the age when children in the outside world began tasting solid food and then feeding themselves, he and his age-mates remained on their backs, sucking from bottles with widened openings to allow the passage of a watery gruel. Without proper care or physical therapy, the babys leg muscles wasted. At 3, he was deemed deficient and transferred across town to a Cmin Spital Pentru Copii Deficieni, a Home Hospital for Irrecoverable Children.

The cement fortress emitted no sounds of children playing, though as many as 500 lived inside at one time. It stood mournfully aloof from the cobblestone streets and sparkling river of the town where Elie Wiesel had been born, in 1928, and enjoyed a happy childhood before the Nazi deportations.

The windows on Izidors third-floor ward had been fitted with prison bars. In boyhood, he stood there often, gazing down on an empty mud yard enclosed by a barbed-wire fence. Through bare branches in winter, Izidor got a look at another hospital that sat right in front of his own and concealed it from the street. Real children, children wearing shoes and coats, children holding their parents hands, came and went from that hospital. No one from Izidors Cmin Spital was ever taken there, no matter how sick, not even if they were dying.

Like all the boys and girls who lived in the hospital for irrecoverables, Izidor was served nearly inedible, watered-down food at long tables where naked children on benches banged their tin bowls. He grew up in overcrowded rooms where his fellow orphans endlessly rocked, or punched themselves in the face, or shrieked. Out-of-control children were dosed with adult tranquilizers, administered through unsterilized needles, while many who fell ill received transfusions of unscreened blood. Hepatitis B and HIV/AIDS ravaged the Romanian orphanages.

Izidor was destined to spend the rest of his childhood in this building, to exit the gates only at 18, at which time, if he were thoroughly incapacitated, hed be transferred to a home for old men; if he turned out to be minimally functional, hed be evicted to make his way on the streets. Odds were high that he wouldnt survive that long, that the boy with the shriveled leg would die in childhood, malnourished, shivering, unloved.

This past Christmas Day was the 30th anniversary of the public execution by firing squad of Romanias last Communist dictator, Nicolae Ceauescu, whod ruled for 24 years. In 1990, the outside world discovered his network of child gulags, in which an estimated 170,000 abandoned infants, children, and teens were being raised. Believing that a larger population would beef up Romanias economy, Ceauescu had curtailed contraception and abortion, imposed tax penalties on people who were childless, and celebrated as heroine mothers women who gave birth to 10 or more. Parents who couldnt possibly handle another baby might call their new arrival Ceauescus child, as in Let him raise it.

Read: Ta-Nehisi Coates on Nicolae Ceauescu, megalomaniacal tyrant, friend of America

To house a generation of unwanted or unaffordable children, Ceauescu ordered the construction or conversion of hundreds of structures around the country. Signs displayed the slogan: the state can take better care of your child than you can.

At age 3, abandoned children were sorted. Future workers would get clothes, shoes, food, and some schooling in Case de copiichildrens homeswhile deficient children wouldnt get much of anything in their Cmine Spitale. The Soviet science of defectology viewed disabilities in infants as intrinsic and uncurable. Even children with treatable issuesperhaps they were cross-eyed or anemic, or had a cleft lipwere classified as unsalvageable.

Subscribe to The Atlantic and support 160 years of independent journalism

After the Romanian revolution, children in unspeakable conditionsskeletal, splashing in urine on the floor, caked with feceswere discovered and filmed by foreign news programs, including ABCs 20/20, which broadcast Shame of a Nation in 1990. Like the liberators of Auschwitz 45 years before, early visitors to the institutions have been haunted all their lives by what they saw. We flew in by helicopter over the snow to Siret, landing after midnight, subzero weather, accompanied by Romanian bodyguards carrying Uzis, Jane Aronson tells me. A Manhattan-based pediatrician and adoption-medicine specialist, she was part of one of the first pediatric teams summoned to Romania by the new government. We walk into a pitch-black, freezing-cold building and discover there are youngsters lurking abouttheyre tiny, but older, something weird, like trolls, filthy, stinking. Theyre chanting in a dronelike way, gibberish. We open a door and find a population of cretinsnow its known as congenital iodine deficiency syndrome; untreated hypothyroidism stunts growth and brain development. I dont know how old they were, three feet tall, could have been in their 20s. In other rooms we see teenagers the size of 6- and 7-year-olds, with no secondary sexual characteristics. There were children with underlying genetic disorders lying in cages. You start almost to disassociate.

I walked into an institution in Bucharest one afternoon, and there was a small child standing there sobbing, recalls Charles A. Nelson III, a professor of pediatrics and neuroscience at Harvard Medical School and Boston Childrens Hospital. He was heartbroken and had wet his pants. I asked, Whats going on with that child? A worker said, Well, his mother abandoned him this morning and hes been like that all day. That was it. No one comforted the little boy or picked him up. That was my introduction.

The Romanian orphans were not the first devastatingly neglected children to be seen by psychologists in the 20th century. Unresponsive World War II orphans, as well as children kept isolated for long periods in hospitals, had deeply concerned mid-century child-development giants such as Ren Spitz and John Bowlby. In an era devoted to fighting malnutrition, injury, and infection, the idea that adequately fed and medically stable children could waste away because they missed their parents was hard to believe. Their research led to the then-bold notion, advanced especially by Bowlby, that simply lacking an attachment figure, a parent or caregiver, could wreak a lifetime of havoc on mental and physical health.

From the April 1996 issue: Anne F. Thurston describes life in a Chinese orphanage

Neuroscientists tended to view attachment theory as suggestive and thought-provoking work within the soft science of psychology. It largely relied on case studies or correlational evidence or animal research. In the psychologist Harry Harlows infamous maternal deprivation experiments, he caged baby rhesus monkeys alone, offering them only maternal facsimiles made of wire and wood, or foam and terry cloth.

In 1998, at a small scientific meeting, animal research presented back-to-back with images from Romanian orphanages changed the course of the study of attachment. First the University of Minnesota neonatal-pediatrics professor Dana Johnson shared photos and videos that hed collected in Romania of rooms teeming with children engaged in motor stereotypies: rocking, banging their heads, squawking. He was followed by a speaker who showed videos of her work with motherless primate infants like the ones Harlow had producedswaying, twirling, self-mutilating. The audience was shocked by the parallels. We were all in tears, Nelson told me.

In the decade after the fall of Ceauescu, the new Romanian government welcomed Western child-development experts to simultaneously help and study the tens of thousands of children still warehoused in state care. Researchers hoped to answer some long-standing questions: Are there sensitive periods in neural development, after which the brain of a deprived child cannot make full use of the mental, emotional, and physical stimulation later offered? Can the effects of maternal deprivation or caregiver absence be documented with modern neuroimaging techniques? Finally, if an institutionalized child is transferred into a family setting, can he or she recoup undeveloped capacities? Implicitly, poignantly: Can a person unloved in childhood learn to love?

Tract developments fan out from the Denver airport like playing cards on a table. The Great Plains have been ground down to almost nothing here, to wind and dirt and trash on the shoulder of the highway, to Walgreens and Arbys and AutoZone. In a rental car, I drive slowly around the semicircles and cul-de-sacs of Izidors subdivision until I see him step out of the shadow of a 4,500-square-foot McMansion with a polite half-wave. He sublets a room here, as do others, including some familiesan exurban commune in a single-family residence built for Goliaths. At 39, Izidor is an elegant, wiry man with mournful eyes. His manner is alert and tentative. A general manager for a KFC, he works 60-to-65-hour weeks.

Read: American child detention centers degrading, inhumane conditions

Welcome to Romania, he announces, opening his bedroom door. Its an entryway into another time, another place. From every visit to his home country, Izidor has brought back folk art and souvenirshand-painted glazed plates and teacups, embroidered tea towels, Romanian flags, shot glasses, wood figurines, cut-glass flasks of plum brandy, and CDs of Romanian folk music, heavy on the violins. He could stock a gift shop. There are thick wine-colored rugs, blankets, and wall hangings. The ambient light is maroon, the curtains closed against the high-altitude sunshine. Ten miles southwest of the Denver airport, Izidor is living in an ersatz Romanian cottage.

Everyone in Maramure lives like this, he tells me, referring to the cultural region in northern Romania where he was born.

Im thinking, Do they, though?

You will see that many people there have these things in their homes, he clarifies.

That sounds more accurate. People like knickknacks. Do you sound like a Romanian when you visit? I ask.

No, he says. When I start to speak, they ask, Where are you from? I tell them: From Maramure! No one believes him, because of his accent, so he has to explain: Technically, if you want to be logical about it, I am Romanian, but Ive lived in America for more than 20 years.

When you meet new people, do you talk about your history?

No, I try not to. I want to experience Romania as a normal human being. I dont want to be known everywhere as the Orphan.

His precise English makes even casual phrases sound formal. In his room, Izidor has captured the Romanian folk aesthetic, but something else stirs beneath the surface. Im reminded of the book he self-published at age 22, titled Abandoned for Life. Its a grim tale, but once, when he was about 8, Izidor had a happy day.

A kind nanny had started working at the hospital. Onisa was a young lady, a bit chubby, with long black hair and round rosy cheeks, Izidor writes in his memoir. She loved to sing and often taught us some of her music. One day, Onisa intervened when another nanny was striking Izidor with a broomstick. Like a few others before her, Onisa had spotted his intelligence. On the ward of semi-ambulatory (some crawled or creeped), slightly verbal (some just made noises) children, Izidor was the go-to kid if an adult had questions, like what was that ones name or when had that one died. The director would occasionally peek in and ask Izidor if he and the other children were being hit; to avoid retribution, Izidor always said no.

Annie Lowrey: How America treats its own children

On that day, to cheer him up after his beating, Onisa promised that someday shed take him home with her for an overnight visit. Skeptical that such an extraordinary event would ever happen, Izidor thanked her for the nice idea.

A few weeks later, on a snowy winter day, Onisa dressed Izidor in warm clothes and shoes shed brought from home, took him by the hand, and led him out the front door and through the orphanage gate. Walking slowly, she took the small boy, who swayed on uneven legs with a deep, tilting limp, down the lane past the public hospital and into the town. Cold, fresh air brushed his cheeks, and snow squeaked under his shoes; the wind rattled the branches; a bird stood on a chimney. It was my first time ever going out into the world, he tells me now. He looked in astonishment at the cars and houses and shops. He tried to absorb and memorize everything to report back to the kids on his ward.

When I stepped into Onisas apartment, he writes, I could not believe how beautiful it was; the walls were covered with dark rugs and there was a picture of the Last Supper on one of them. The carpets on the floor were red. Neighborhood children knocked on Onisas door to see if the strange boy from the orphanage wanted to come out and play, and he did. Onisas children arrived home from school, and Izidor learned that it was the start of their Christmas holiday. He feasted alongside Onisas family at their friends dinner table that night, tasting Romanian specialties for the first time, including sarmale (stuffed cabbage), potato goulash with thick noodles, and sweet yellow sponge cake with cream filling. He remembers every bite. On the living-room floor after dinner, the child of that household let Izidor play with his toys. Izidor followed the boys lead and drove little trains across the rug. Back at Onisas, he slept in his first-ever soft, clean bed.

The next morning, Onisa asked Izidor if he wanted to go to work with her or to stay with her children. Here he made a mistake so terrible that, 31 years later, he still remembers it with grief.

I want to go to work with you! he called. He was deep into a fantasy that Onisa was his mother, and he didnt want to be parted from her. I got dressed as fast as I could, and we headed out the door, he remembers. When we were near her work, I realized that her work was at the hospital, my hospital, and I began to cry It had only been 24 hours but somehow I thought I was going to be part of Onisas family now. It didnt occur to me that her work was actually at the hospital until we were at the gate again. I felt so shocked when we turned into the yard it was like Id forgotten I came from there.

He tried to turn back but wasnt permitted. Hed found the most wonderful spot on EarthOnisas apartmentand, through his own stupidity, had let it slip away. He sobbed like a newcomer until the other nannies threatened to slap him.

Today Izidor lives 6,000 miles from Romania. He leads a solitary life. But in his bedroom in a subdivision on a paved-over prairie, he has re-created the setting from the happiest night in his childhood.

That night at Onisas, I ask, do you think you sensed that there were family relationships and emotions happening there that youd never seen or felt before?

No, I was too young to perceive that.

But you did notice the beautiful furnishings?

Yes! You see this? Izidor says, picking up a tapestry woven with burgundy roses on a dark, leafy background. This is almost identical to Onisas. I bought it in Romania for that reason!

All these things I gesture.

Yes.

But not because they signify family to you?

No, but they signify peace to me. It was the first time I slept in a real home. For many years I thought, Why cant I have a home like that?

Now he does. But he knows there are missing partsno matter how many shot glasses he collects.

In the early 1990s, Danny and Marlys Ruckel lived with their three young daughters in a San Diego condo. They thought it would be nice to add a boy to the mix, and heard about a local independent filmmaker, John Upton, who was arranging adoptions of Romanian orphans. Marlys called and told him they wanted to adopt a baby boy. Theres thousands of kids there, Upton replied. Thatll be easy.

Marlys laughs. Not much of that was accurate! she tells me. Were seated in the living room of a white-stucco house in the Southern California wine-country town of Temecula. Kids and dogs bang in and out of the dazzling hot day (the Ruckels have adopted five children from foster care in recent years). Marlys, now a job coach for adults with special needs, is like a Diane Keaton character, shyly retreating behind large glasses and a fall of long hair, but occasionally making brave outbursts. Danny, a programmer, is an easygoing guy. Marlys describes herself as a homebody, but then there was that time she moved to Romania for two months to try to adopt a boy she saw on a video.

Undone by Shame of a Nation, Upton had flown to Romania four days after the broadcast, and made his way to the worst place on the show, the Home Hospital for Irrecoverable Children in Sighetu Marmaiei. He went back a few times. On one visit, he gathered a bunch of kids in an empty room to film them for prospective adoptive parents. His video would not show children packed together naked like little reptiles in an aquarium, as hed described them, but as people, wearing clothes and speaking.

By then, donations had started to come in from charities around the world. Little reached the children, because the staff skimmed the best items, but on that day, in deference to the American, nannies put donated sweaters on the kids. Though the children seemed excited to be the center of attention, Upton and his Romanian assistant found it slow-going. Some didnt speak at all, and others were unable to stand up or to stand still. When the filmmakers asked for the childrens names and ages, the nannies shrugged.

At the end of a wooden bench sat a boy the size of a 6-year-oldat age 10, Izidor weighed about 50 pounds. Upton was the first American hed ever seen. Izidor knew about Americans from the TV show Dallas. A donated television had arrived one day, and he had lobbied for this one thing to stay at the hospital. The director had assented. On Sunday nights at 8 oclock, ambulatory kids, nannies, and workers from other floors gathered to watch Dallas together. When rumors flew up the stairs that day that an American had arrived, the reaction inside the orphanage was, Almighty God, someone from the land of the giant houses!

Izidor knew the information the nannies didnt. He tells me: John Upton would ask a kid, How old are you?, and the kid would say, I dont know, and the nanny would say, I dont know, and Id yell, Hes 14! Hed ask about another kid, Whats his last name?, and Id yell, Dumka!

Izidor knows the children here better than the staff, Upton grouses in one of the tapes. Before wrapping up the session, he lifts Izidor into his lap and asks if hed like to go to America. Izidor says that he would.

Back in San Diego, Upton told the Ruckels about the bright boy of about 7 who hoped to come to the United States. Wed wanted to adopt a baby, Marlys says. Then we saw Johns video and fell in love with Izidor.

In May 1991, Marlys flew to Romania to meet the child and try to bring him home. Just before traveling, she learned that Izidor was almost 11, but she was undaunted. She traveled with a new friend, Debbie Principe, who had also been matched with a child by Upton. In the directors office, Marlys waited to meet Izidor, and Debbie waited to meet a little blond live wire named Ciprian.

When Izidor entered, Marlys says, all I saw was him, like everything else was fuzzy. He was as beautiful as Id imagined. Our translator asked him which of the visitors in the office he hoped would be his new mother, and he pointed to me!

Izidor had a question for the translator: Where will I live? Is it like Dallas?

Well no, we live in a condo, like an apartment, Marlys said. But youll have three sisters. Youll love them.

This did not strike Izidor as an interesting trade-off. He dryly replied to the translator: We will see.

That night, Marlys rejoiced about what an angel Izidor was.

Debbie laughed. He struck me more like a cool operator, a savvy politician type, she told Marlys. He was much more on top of things than Chippy. Ciprian had spent the time in the office rummaging wildly through everything, including desk drawers and the pockets of everyone in the room.

No, hes an innocent. Hes adorable, Marlys said. Did you see him pick me to be his mother?

Years later, in his memoir, Izidor explained that moment:

The pediatric neuroscientist Charles Nelson is famously gregarious and kind, with wavy, graying blond hair and a mustache like Captain Kangaroos. In the fall of 2000, he, along with his colleagues Nathan A. Fox, a human-development professor at the University of Maryland, and Charles H. Zeanah, a child-psychiatry professor at the Tulane University School of Medicine, launched the Bucharest Early Intervention Project. They had permission to work with 136 children, ages six months to 2.5 years, from six Bucharest leagne, baby institutions. None was a Home Hospital for Irrecoverable Children, like Izidors; they were somewhat better supplied and staffed.

By design, 68 of the children would continue to receive care as usual, while the other 68 would be placed with foster families recruited and trained by BEIP. (Romania didnt have a tradition of foster care; officials believed orphanages were safer for children.) Local kids whose parents volunteered to participate made up a third group. The BEIP study would become the first-ever randomized controlled trial to measure the impact of early institutionalization on brain and behavioral development and to examine high-quality foster care as an alternative.

To start, the researchers employed Mary Ainsworths classic strange situation procedure to assess the quality of the attachment relationships between the children and their caregivers or parents. In a typical setup, a baby between nine and 18 months old enters an unfamiliar playroom with her attachment figure and experiences some increasingly unsettling events, including the arrival of a stranger and the departure of her grown-up, as researchers code the babys behavior from behind a one-way mirror. Our coders, unaware of any childs background, assessed 100 percent of the community kids as having fully developed attachment relationships with their mothers, Zeanah told me. That was true of 3 percent of the institutionalized kids.

Nearly two-thirds of the children were coded as disorganized, meaning they displayed contradictory, jerky behaviors, perhaps freezing in place or suddenly reversing direction after starting to approach the adult. This pattern is the one most closely related to later psychopathology. Even more disturbing, Zeanah told me, 13 percent were deemed unclassified, meaning they displayed no attachment behaviors at all. Ainsworth and John Bowlby believed infants would attach to an adult even if the adult were abusive, he said. They hadnt considered the possibility of infants without attachments.

Until the Bucharest project, Zeanah said, he hadnt realized that seeking comfort for distress is a learned behavior. These children had no idea that an adult could make them feel better, he told me. Imagine how that must feelto be miserable and not even know that another human being could help.

In October 1991, Izidor and Ciprian flew with Romanian escorts to San Diego. The boys new families waited at the airport to greet them, along with Upton and previously adopted Romanian childrena small crowd holding balloons and signs, cheering and waving. Izidor gazed around the terminal with satisfaction. Where is my bedroom? he asked. When Marlys told him they were in an airport, not his new home, Izidor was taken aback. Though shed explained that the Ruckels did not live like the Ewings in Dallas, he hadnt believed her. Now hed mistaken the arrivals area for his new living room.

A 17-year-old from the orphanage, Izabela, was part of the airport welcoming committee. Born with hydrocephalus and unable to walk after being left all her life in a crib, she was in a wheelchair, dressed up and looking pretty. Rescued by Upton on an earlier trip, shed been admitted to the U.S. on a humanitarian medical basis and was being fostered by the Ruckels.

Izidor was startled to see Izabela: Who is your mother?

My mother is your mother, Izidor.

I didnt like the sound of that, he remembers. To make sure hed heard correctly, he asked again: Who is your mother here in America?

Izidor, you and I have the same mother, she said, pointing at Marlys.

So now he had to get used to four sisters.

In the car, when Danny tried to click a seat belt across Izidors waist, he bucked and yelled, fearing he was being straitjacketed.

Marlys homeschooled the girls, but Izidor insisted on starting fourth grade in the local school, where he quickly learned English. His canny ability to read the room put him in good stead with the teachers, but at home, he seemed constantly irritated. Suddenly insulted, hed storm off to his room and tear things apart. He shredded books, posters, family pictures, Marlys tells me, and then stood on the balcony to sprinkle the pieces onto the yard. If I had to leave for an hour, by the time I got home, everyone would be upset: He did this; he did that. He didnt like the girls.

Marlys and Danny had hoped to expand the family fun and happiness by bringing in another child. But the newest family member almost never laughed. He didnt like to be touched. He was vigilant, hurt, proud. By about 14, he was angry about everything, she tells me. He decided hed grow up and become the American president. When he found out that wouldnt be possible because of his foreign birth, he said, Fine, Ill go back to Romania. Thats when that startedhis goal of returning to Romania. We thought it was a good thing for him to have a goal, so we said, Sure, get a job, save your money, and when youre 18, you can move back to Romania. Izidor worked every day after school at a fast-food restaurant.

Those were rough years. I was walking on eggshells, trying not to set him off. The girls were so over it. It was me they were mad at. Not for bringing Izidor into the family but for being so so whipped by him. Theyd say, Mom, all you do is try to fix him! I was so focused on helping him adjust, I lost sight of the fact that the other children were scraping by with a fraction of my time.

Danny and I tried taking him to therapy, but he refused to go back. He said, I dont need therapy. You two need therapy. Why dont you go? So we did.

Hed say: Im fine when nobodys in the house.

Wed say: But Izidor, its our house.

As early as 2003, it was evident to the BEIP scientists and their Romanian research partners that the foster-care children were making progress. Glimmering through the data was a sensitive period of 24 months during which it was crucial for a child to establish an attachment relationship with a caregiver, Zeanah says. Children taken out of orphanages before their second birthday were benefiting from being with families far more than those who stayed longer. When youre doing a trial and your preliminary evidence is that the intervention is effective, you have to ask, Do we stop now and make the drug available to everyone? he told me. For us, the effective drug happened to be foster care, and we werent capable of creating a national foster-care system. Instead, the researchers announced their results publicly, and the next year, the Romanian government banned the institutionalization of children under the age of 2. Since then, it has raised the minimum age to 7, and government-sponsored foster care has expanded dramatically.

Meanwhile, the study continued. When the children were reassessed in a strange situation playroom at age 3.5, the portion who displayed secure attachments climbed from the baseline of 3 percent to nearly 50 percent among the foster-care kids, but to only 18 percent among those who remained institutionalizedand, again, the children moved before their second birthday did best. Timing is critical, the researchers wrote. Brain plasticity wasnt unlimited, they warned. Earlier is better.

The benefits for children whod achieved secure attachments accrued as time went on. At age 4.5, they had significantly lower rates of depression and anxiety and fewer callous unemotional traits (limited empathy, lack of guilt, shallow affect) than their peers still in institutions. About 40 percent of teenagers in the study whod ever been in orphanages, in fact, were eventually diagnosed with a major psychiatric condition. Their growth was stunted, and their motor skills and language development stalled. MRI studies revealed that the brain volume of the still-institutionalized children was below that of the never institutionalized, and EEGs showed profoundly less brain activity. If you think of the brain as a light bulb, Charles Nelson has said, its as though there was a dimmer that had reduced them from a 100-watt bulb to 30 watts.

One purpose of a baby attaching to just a small number of adults, according to evolutionary theory, is that its the most efficient way to get help. If there were many attachment figures and danger emerged, the infant wouldnt know to whom to direct the signal, explains Martha Pott, a senior lecturer in child development at Tufts. Unattached children see threats everywhere, an idea borne out in the brain studies. Flooded with stress hormones like cortisol and adrenaline, the amygdalathe main part of the brain dealing with fear and emotionseemingly worked overtime in the still-institutionalized children.

Comparing data from orphanages worldwide shows the profound impact institutionalization has on social-emotional development even in the best cases. In Englands residential nurseries in the 1960s, there was a reasonable number of caregivers, and the children were materially well provided for. Their IQs, though lower than those of children in families, were well within the average range, up in the 90s, Zeanah told me. More recently, the caregiver-child ratio in Greek orphanages was not as good, nor were they as materially well equipped; those kids had IQs in the low-average range. Then, in Romania, you have our kids with really major-league deficits. But heres the remarkable thing: Across all those settings, the attachment impairments are similar.

When the children in the Bucharest study were 8, the researchers set up playdates, hoping to learn how early attachment impairments might inhibit a childs later ability to interact with peers. In a video I watched, two boys, strangers to each other, enter a playroom. Within seconds, things go off the rails. One boy, wearing a white turtleneck, eagerly seizes the other boys hand and gnaws on it. That boy, in a striped pullover, yanks back his hand and checks for teeth marks. The researcher offers a toy, but the boy in white is busy trying to hold hands with the other kid, or grab him by the wrists, or hug him, as if he were trying to carry a giant teddy bear. He tries to overturn the table. The other boy makes a feeble effort to save the table, then lets it fall. Hes weird, you can imagine him thinking. Can I go home now?

The boy in the white turtleneck lived in an institution; the boy in the striped pullover was a neighborhood kid.

Nelson cautions that the door doesnt slam shut for children left in institutions beyond 24 months of age. But the longer you wait to get children into a family, he says, the harder it is to get them back on an even keel.

Every time we got into another fight, Izidor remembers, I wanted one of them to say: Izidor, we wish we had never adopted you and we are going to send you back to the hospital. But they didnt say it.

Unable to process his familys affection, he just wanted to know where he stood. It was simpler in the orphanage, where either you were being beaten or you werent. I responded better to being smacked around, Izidor tells me. In America, they had rules and consequences. So much talk. I hated Lets talk about this. As a child, Id never heard words like You are special or Youre our kid. Later, if your adoption parents tell you words like that, you feel, Okay, whatever, thanks. I dont even know what youre talking about. I dont know what you want from me, or what Im supposed to do for you. When banished to his room, for rudeness or cursing or being mean to the girls, Izidor would stomp up the stairs and blast Romanian music or bang on his door from the inside with his fists or a shoe.

Marlys blamed herself. He said he wanted to go back to his first mother, a woman who hadnt even wanted him, a woman he didnt remember. When I took him to the bank to set up his savings account, the bank official filling out the form asked Izidor, Whats your mothers maiden name? I opened my mouth to answer, but he immediately said Maria. Thats his birth mothers name. I know it was probably dumb to feel hurt by that.

One night when Izidor was 16, Marlys and Danny felt so scared by Izidors outburst that they called the police. Im going to kill you! hed screamed at them. After an officer escorted Izidor to the police car, he insisted that his parents abused him.

Oh, for Christs sake, Danny said when informed of his sons accusation.

Continued here:
30 Years Ago, Romania Deprived Thousands of Babies of Human Contact - The Atlantic

Ditch Factory Farms: Health Experts Say Pandemic Is Telling Humanity To End Animal Agriculture – Green Queen Media

A new editorial article authored by leading academic physicians from the US to New Zealand says that the coronavirus pandemic is showing humanity that unsustainable and dangerous factory farming must be phased out for alternative proteins. While acknowledging the role of the wildlife industry, which they say must be eradicated as well, the experts believe that ultimately, the intensive factory farming industry and global appetite for animal meat should be discontinued in order to prevent future pandemics.

The paper, published in peer-reviewed journal Neuroepidemiology, was authored by Mayo Clinic Emeritus Professor David O. Wiebers, MD., and neuroscience professor at Auckland University of Technology and editor-in-chief of Neuroepidemiology Valery Feigin.

As we begin to find our way through this crisis, it is imperative for us as a society and species to focus and reflect deeply upon what this and other related human health crises are telling us about our role in these increasingly frequent events and about what we can do to avoid them in the future, wrote Weibers and Feigin.

Although it is tempting for us to lay the blame for pandemics such as COVID-19 on bats, pangolins, or other wild species, it is human behavior that is responsible for the vast majority of zoonotic diseases that jump the species barrier from animals to humans.

The experts detailed the relation between the alarming increase in frequency of deadly zoonotic diseases to the unnaturally close contact between animals and humans due to humanitys continued exploitation of nature and animals for human purposes.

From destruction of animal habitats to overcrowded factory farms, the authors believe that continuing such practices will mean that more deadly pandemics are on the horizon.

While acknowledging the role of the hunting and selling of wild animals as a key public health risk that must be eliminated, the paper also points to the global livestock industry that has exploded in the past decades due to humanitys appetite for meat.

Over the last 40 years, as the factory farm model has become a global phenomenonNow, serious outbreaks are occurring regularly more in the past 15 years than in the entire 20th century.

It points out that livestock farming not only raises the threat of emerging infectious diseases, but also contributes to habitat destruction, deforestation and greenhouse gases that further exacerbate climate change all of which are factors cycling back to increase the likelihood of deadly pandemics.

Read: Pandemic Meat Crisis Pushes Consumers Towards Plant-Based Alternatives From HK To US

Intensive confinement of animals in factory farm operations should be discontinued worldwide for the sake of animals, humans, and the environment, and we should rapidly evolve to eating other forms of protein that are safer for humans, including plant-based meat alternatives and cultured meat, they wrote.

Additional investment in plant-based agriculture to grow crops to feed humans rather than livestock for human consumption would feed more people while utilising far less land and water, allowing for the preservation of vital ecosystems for innumerable species.

Similar warnings have been issued by other scientific experts in recent months. In an article published in late April, the worlds leading wildlife and biodiversity scientists said that the combination of global air travel, unsustainable urbanisation and industrial livestock farming has created a perfect storm for haunting diseases.

The experts cautioned that while trillion-dollar packages now being implemented are necessary measures, they cannot come at the cost of failing to enforce environmental protection, which would make future pandemics happen more rapidly, frequently and with even more destructive consequences.

Lead image courtesy of Friso Gentsch / DPA / AFP via Getty Images.

Read this article:
Ditch Factory Farms: Health Experts Say Pandemic Is Telling Humanity To End Animal Agriculture - Green Queen Media

Global inequality and exploitation – Daily Times

Around the world, inequality is a significant determinant of human behavior, opening doors of opportunity to some and closing them to others. A very few centuries ago, such Vast divides in global wealth did not exist. Except for a very few rulers and land Owners everyone in the world was poor. In much of Europe, life was as difficult as it was in Asia or South America. This was true until the industrial revolution and rising agricultural productivity produced explosive economic growth. The resulting rise in the living standards was not evenly distributed across the world.

In 2005 the United Nations launched the millennium project whose objective is to eliminate poverty and to raise the level and standard of living of the people. Industrial nations had the role and goal to set aside a percentage of their gross national product (GNP) for aid to developing nations.

While the divide between industry and developing nations was sharp, sociologists recognize a continuum of nations, from the richest of the rich to the poorest of the poor. Three forces considered responsible, particularly for the domination of the world marketplace by a few nations were the legacy of colonialism; the advent of the multinational companies and modernization.

Relations between the colonial nation and colonized people are similar to those between the dominant capitalist class and the proletariat, as described by Karl Marx.

By the 1980s, colonialism had largely disappeared. For colonies having achieved political independence and established their own governments the complete transition to genuine self-rule was essential to leave behind the established patterns of economic exploitation. Former colonies were unable to develop their own industry and technology. Their dependence on more industrialized nations, including their former colonial masters, for managerial and technical expertise, investment capital, and manufactured goods kept former colonies in a subservient position. Such continuing dependence and foreign domination are referred to as neocolonialism.

Some observers see globalization and its effects as the natural result of advances in communications technology, particularly the Internet and satellite transmission of the mass media

The economic and political consequences of colonialism and neocolonialism are readily apparent. Drawing on the conflict perspective, sociologist Immanuel Wallenstein (1974, 1979 a, 2000) views the global economic system as being divided between nations that control wealth and nations from which resources are taken. Through his world systems analysis, Wallenstein has described the unequal economic and political relationships in which certain industrialized nations (among them the United States, Japan, and Germany) and their global corporations dominate the core of this system. Ultimately it is the exploitative relationship of core nations toward non core nation. Core nations and their corporations control and exploit noncore nations economies.

In the view of world Systems analysis and dependency theory, a growing Share of human and natural resources of developing Countries is being redistributed to the Core industrialized nations. This redistribution happens in part because developing countries owe huge sums of money to industrialized nations as a result of foreign aid, loans, and trade deficits. The global debt crisis has intensified the Third World dependency begun under colonialism, neocolonialism and multinational investment. International financial institutions are pressuring indebted Countries to take severe measures to meet their interest payments. The result is that developing nations may be forced to devalue their currencies, freeze Workers wages, increase privatization of industry, and reduce government services and employment.

Closely related to these problems is globalization, the worldwide integration of government policies, cultures and social movements and financial markets through trade and the exchange of ideas. Because World financial markets transcend Governance by conventional nation states, international organizations such as the World Bank and International Monetary Fund have emerged as major players in the global economy. The function of these institutions which are heavily funded and influenced by Core nations, is to encourage economic trade and development and to ensure the smooth operation of international financial markets. As such, they are seen as promoters of globalization and defenders primarily of interests of Core nations.

Critics call attention to a variety of issues, including violations of workers rights, the destruction of the environment, the loss of cultural identity and discrimination against minority groups in periphery nations.

Some observers see globalization and its effects as the natural result of advances in communications technology, particularly the Internet and satellite transmission of the mass media. Others view it more critically as a process that allows multinational corporations to expand unchecked.

Conflict theorists challenge the favorable evaluation of the impact of multinational corporations. They emphasize the multinationals exploit local workers to maximize profit. The pool of cheap labor in the developing world prompts multinationals to move factories out of core countries.

The writer is former Director National Institute of Public Administration (NIPA) Government of Pakistan, a political analyst, a public policy expert

Go here to see the original:
Global inequality and exploitation - Daily Times

Widely cited health institute keeps missing the mark on Maine death projections – Press Herald

A research group that has been widely cited by national health experts and government officials for its COVID-19 models has twice projected enormous increases in COVID-19 deaths in Maine.

But in both cases, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington published new data within a matter of days that sharply reduced its projected death counts.

The institute published projections last week that Maine could surpass 1,000 COVID-19 deaths by the fall a 10-fold increase over current deaths but revised that figure to less than 200 deaths just five days later. And in March, the institute published a projection of more than 3,000 deaths in Maine by August, only to lower that figure to 334 deaths a few days later, after making adjustments to its data.

The wildly different death projections over the course of less than a week raises questions about the value of the modeling and spotlights the potential perils of relying on any one model to anticipate how the coronavirus could spread across the U.S.

Maines top public health epidemiologist, Dr. Nirav Shah, said he still lists the institute among the infectious disease modeling groups that he checks regularly as part of the Maine Center for Disease Control and Preventions own internal modeling exercises.

But the Maine CDC director added: It has diminished as a website that I check on a daily basis.

The institute is among dozens of academic and research groups trying to model how this new, somewhat unpredictable virus will spread across the globe. But IHMEs projections have been used by federal and state public health officials as they make decisions impacting the daily lives of nearly all Americans, as well as the economic health of the country.

Dr. Deborah Birx, the White Houses coronavirus response coordinator, has cited the IHME model several times, as have numerous governors. The institutes projections, both for the nation and individual states, are often quoted in news articles in a wide array of national publications.

On June 5, IHME released updated state-by-state and national forecasts that projected Maine could see 614 deaths by Sept. 21 six times higher than the current total of 101 deaths. A forecast from the institute in early April, by comparison, had projected Maine that could experience 115 COVID-related deaths by Aug. 1.

On June 10, the institutes projection for Maine jumped to 1,076 deaths. But in a June 15 update, IHME researchers slashed the projected number of deaths to 185 by Oct. 1.

Asked about the wild fluctuations over a period of just 10 days, an IHME spokeswoman attributed the swings to changes in Maines virus transmission rate. Also referred to as the reproduction rate or the R-naught, a transmission rate of 1 means that every person with COVID-19 would be expected to infect one other person, while a value of 3 means every person would infect three others.

The higher the number creeps above 1, even by decimal points, the faster the situation gets to a point where the virus is increasing exponentially to the point where hospitals and health care systems are overwhelmed.

In the earlier model, the modeling showed the transmission rate (R naught) going above 1, which leads to fast growth, Amelia Apfel wrote in an email. With the additional data in the latest update, we arent seeing that increase in transmission rate. The (institutes) models are pretty sensitive to this type of change.

Institute staff did not respond to requests for additional information on the data underlying the projections.

Shah, the Maine CDC director, said he saw the dramatic swings in IHMEs projections but attributed it to the institutes data sources and methodology, as well as Maines relatively small number of COVID-19 cases.

Maine did see an increase in its transmission rate several weeks ago, largely because of an outbreak at the Cape Memory Care nursing home in Cape Elizabeth. Over the course of a few days, Cape Memory went from zero cases to more than 60 among residents and staff as the Maine CDC helped test everyone at the facility.

Ultimately, Cape Memory Care had 84 cases with six deaths, to date. But Shah said models such as those run by IHME do not distinguish between isolated and contained outbreaks at facilities and a surge in cases in the community.

I kind of attributed them to statistical noise, Shah said Wednesday of the institutes surging death projections. What happens in Maine is what I call the law of small numbers.'

Shah said that Maine has very few cases compared to many other states, with his agency reporting 2,836 cases and 102 deaths as of Wednesday compared to a nationwide total of 2.1 million cases and 117,000 deaths. So when Maine reports 30 new confirmed or probable infections one day but 36 new cases the next day, Shah said, that equates to a 20 percent jump.

Shah said IHME relies largely on historical data, in this case, how COVID-19 spread, faded and may have surged again in other countries and more recently in the U.S. The institute said its most recent models also include such factors as testing rates, mobility data, mask use and population densities.

But while Shah said such models are useful and informative, comparing them to an almanac for weather projections, he has come to prefer more dynamic models that he compares to the supercomputers used by meteorologists to make weather forecasts. Those disease models take into account more things happening on the ground and, in some cases, individual policies at the state level.

But we dont use models to predict the future, Shah said. We use them to project scenarios that might happen and then respond accordingly.

IHMEs projections for Maine now fall within the range of more than a dozen other modeling organizations tracked by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Those models which include projections from researchers at IHME, Johns Hopkins University, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, UCLA, the University of Massachusetts and other institutions project Maine will experience between 103 and 151 deaths by July, with an ensemble average of between 115 and 123 depending on the confidence interval.

Shah stressed that modeling was a particularly important exercise early on as the state tried to gauge hospital capacity and critical care needs on a range of COVID-19 scenarios. But more than three months later, Maine has so far avoided uncontrolled transmission overwhelming the states health care system thanks, in large part, to physical distancing and other restrictions.

Maine CDC epidemiologists still consult outside models, including IHMEs projections, as they try to prepare for future scenarios. But the prime directives that influence decisions such as whether to lift or impose restrictions on businesses and people include metrics like the daily and rolling averages of new cases and deaths, hospitalization trends, testing rates and the percent of tests that come back positive.

Experts said, however, that models are valuable in infectious disease tracking even if they are inherently imprecise.

I think models get a bad rap because they are not perfectly, numerically precise, but that is just the nature of dealing with complex systems, said Chris Moore, an assistant professor of biology at Colby College.

That imprecision factor becomes even greater, Moore added, when you consider that the progression of COVID-19 and other infectious diseases is often dependent on unpredictable human behavior.

Moore, who taught courses last semester on the evolution of infectious disease and ecological modeling, said weather forecasts are often fairly precise in the short term and can generally predict, based on history, trends over the longer-term. The middle-range is more problematic.

Instead, Moore liked one of his students comparisons of infectious disease modeling to using a smartphone for driving directions. Your phones GPS should be able to predict with some precision when you will arrive in, say, nearby Fairfield from Waterville. But your ETA in Boston from Waterville depends on traffic, accidents and other factors.

When you are watching your phone and traveling, it is dynamically updating and taking into account all of these variables, Moore said.

Mathematical modeling expert Raj Saha said one of his major criticisms of COVID-19 modeling is that organizations need to be clearer about the underlying assumptions and data that are used to build the projections. For instance, the public should be able to clearly see and understand from non-scientific language whether a models projections take into account policies such as stay-at-home orders and other factors when they see the results.

Thats important because Saha, an interdisciplinary lecturer in environmental geophysics at Bates College, said people could change their behaviors based on projections, with potentially dire consequences during an outbreak of highly infectious disease.

People can look at low projections and assume things are OK, but they are OK because of the lockdown measures, Saha said.

Saha said he would rather see disease projections offer several scenarios based on easily understandable factors. As examples, Saha said one scenario could include a continuation of lockdown measures and physical distancing, another scenario where those measures are eased, and one with little or no restrictions.

Without knowing those assumptions, any projections, regardless of how sophisticated themodels are, can be interpreted in unintended ways, Saha said. We are all used to seeing weather projections for example the path of a hurricane which always comes with error zones. But how a public reacts to the projected paths of a hurricane is not going to affect the actual path of the hurricane. The same cannot be said here in the case of disease projections.

Invalid username/password.

Please check your email to confirm and complete your registration.

Use the form below to reset your password. When you've submitted your account email, we will send an email with a reset code.

Previous

Next

See the article here:
Widely cited health institute keeps missing the mark on Maine death projections - Press Herald