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Human Behavior

Quit protesting and come together | Opinion | sent-trib.com – Sentinel-Tribune

America, we need a change in our attitude.

Instead of concentrating on specific incidents protests, riots, vandalism look at the big picture, look at what is happening in over 90% of our country, not just what makes the headlines.

In spite of all the bad, there is much more good happening. But good news doesnt sell.

What some people have forgotten or maybe they are ignoring, are the basic standards of personal behavior and responsibility. These are things we learned in kindergarten, or at least what my generation learned there.

Maybe the new education curriculum isnt teaching that. What we learned in Sunday school isnt politically correct, so we have to forget it. Supposedly this doesnt apply to modern society but it really does.

Basic human behavior is to build and improve our lives, not destroy. Burning down our communities wont improve anything. Looting wont help either.

The statement, thou shalt not steal, comes to mind. Oh wait, thats a religious statement, and our churches have been declared, not essential. But liquor stores and tobacco stores and gambling casinos are open. Think about that.

Maybe our so-called leaders have other ideas about what would work. But their ideas havent. And the peaceful protests and demonstrations and looting continues.

Is it any wonder there is so much turmoil and division in our country?

Weve lost sight of the source of good, positive behavior, our faith and our beliefs.

Even for the unbelievers and non-believers, this turmoil must stop. We need to get back to basic positive behavior. Our communities and our country cannot continue with the divisions which we are seeing.

Our system of government and economy are not perfect, but it has worked and worked well for of the most people. Working hard to improve ourselves is part of the American dream. Blaming others is not.

We all of us need to get off our back sides, put forth at least some effort, and stop making excuses. Working together, we will solve the problems facing us.

America, the land of the free and home of the brave, will only flourish when all of us stand together, as one nation, under God, indivisible, with liberty and justice for all.

Herb Dettmer is a retired Bowling Green resident, U.S. Army veteran and writes this column representing the viewpoint of Joe Average citizen. He is freelance writer and author of Others, a devotional book. Call or text Joe with comments at 419-494-4641.

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Quit protesting and come together | Opinion | sent-trib.com - Sentinel-Tribune

Human Behavior

Job Platform Indeed Finds Gold In Long-Form Content On TV 07/01/2020 – MediaPost Communications

On Tuesday, weheard from a brand that found that moving from long-form content to short-form content was key in gaining attention. A day later, we heard from Indeed's Paul J. D'Arcy, SVP of marketing, who arguedthe opposite.

"What we see is that linear TV is the biggest driver for us," he told MediaPost's TV & Video Insider Summit via Zoom, "because of its reach and scale. It's apowerful channel."

Indeed, the world's largest online employment platform, focuses on gaining memory. It wants consumers to think of it when they are looking for a job or arelooking to hire someone. It works with people who are experts in media and attention and in finding media that are conducive to that.

"Attention is the key thing," he told ourinterview, Steve Smith, editorial director of events. "And TV drives twice the attention of YouTube." In fact, he added, YouTube is helpful in extending an existing campaign much as a 15-second adwill remind viewers of a 30-second campaign.

Indeed also finds that the bigger the screen, the better. The more pixels that cover the screen, the longer the picture is remembers.On TV, it decays after 109 days, D'Arcy said. On mobile, it's 66 days. To ensure their path is correct, the brand measures awareness and consideration on a daily basis.

WhenCOVID-19 hit in March, he said, "it was one of most rapid periods of change I've ever seen. There were the biggest changes in human behavior happening in my lifetime in just a few weeks. The onlything that changed in terms of people's activities more than cooking was watching video streaming.

"People were stuck at home. They were consuming much more content." Inmany marketplaces, advertisers rushed to cancel spend. There was a lot of disruption.

"In March, it was a health crisis first," said D'Arcy. Then it became a jobs crisis in theU.S. There was a freeze on hiring. It impacted us. Job seeker behavior changed. We brought down our media spending, focused on video. Our buys were longer-term buys already in place. We shiftedstrategy into scatter markets for long-term buys to maintain flexibility."

Indeed has mostly stuck with its buys in place. "But we are continually diversifying beyond linear intoother long-form TV formats. We are going toward streaming long-form content. There are good opportunities for that. It's an audience extension strategy."

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Job Platform Indeed Finds Gold In Long-Form Content On TV 07/01/2020 - MediaPost Communications

Human Behavior

Ethics in the Balance: AIs Implications for Government – Public CIO

While the COVID-19 crisis got most folks thinking about face masks and toilet paper, Chris Calabrese was pondering artificial intelligence and its implications for public policy. His aha moment came when he realized Facebook had sent home most of its human overseers and put AI in charge of policing the social forum for inappropriate content.

The result has been systems that dont work as well. They are taking down groups dedicated to sewing masks, just because they are falsely flagged, said Calabrese, vice president of policy at the Center for Democracy and Technology. Thats automation being used by one of the most influential companies in the world, and its still not up to snuff. That gives me a sense of how far we have to go.

Facebooks stuttering steps into automation reflect broader ethical challenges faced by public tech leaders as AI, biometrics and surveillance technologies increasingly enter the mainstream. CIOs are considering everything from the moral implications of cameras on light posts to the ethical fallout from allowing AI to set prisoners bail.

Will there be bias in AI systems? Will facial recognition erode privacy rights? Around the nation, city-sponsored commissions and academic task forces are trying to tackle some of these tough ethical questions.

New York City was an early entrant into the fray. In 2018, local legislation created the Automated Decision Systems (ADS) Task Force to develop policies and procedures aimed at guiding agencies in their use of AI and related technologies.

The ADS Task Force tackled the complex issues surrounding automated decisions systems to ensure these systems align with the goal of making New York City a fairer and more equitable place, said the mayors Deputy Press Secretary Laura Feyer.

The resulting 36-page report, issued in November 2019, recommended broadening the public discussion around ADS and urged city leaders to formalize management functions. The report was explicit in laying out emerging ethical concerns.

We know that certain decisions, whether made by a human or a computer, carry with them a risk of certain implicit or explicit biases, the authors wrote. They called on the city to investigate these risks in order to use ADS most effectively and responsibly.

The city has since followed up on those early recommendations with institutional means to further safeguard society. After the report was released, the mayor created the position ofalgorithms management and policy officer to continue the work of the task force, Feyer said. That officer will work with all agencies to identify and evaluate ADS though the lens of fairness, equity and transparency.

At the Center for Democracy and Technology, Chris Calabrese and his colleagues work to understand the potential policy impacts of new technologies.

As New York has pursued its foray into issues of fairness and equality in an AI-driven world, various non-government entities have been pursuing a similar track. Drawing from academia, industry and the public sector, several groups are delving deep into these issues in an effort to guide effective policymaking.

The Center for Democracy and Technology has generally focused its efforts on understanding policy challenges surrounding the Internet. More recently, the group has taken a deep dive into the ethics of AI. The impact of that across the board is going to be one of the guiding challenges of the 21st century, Calabrese said.

The centers thinkers are especially concerned about the algorithms that drive automated decision-making. That means making sure facial recognition works as well on a white face as it does on an African-American face, he said. Theyre also exploring the implementation of these technologies. Looking at facial recognition again, that can be used to track people in public, thanks to the power of AI. There are all sorts of issues that arise from that.

More than just a theoretical exploration, the center is focused on the practical applications of new technology. There is, for example, an immediate concern around the growing use of commercial AI products to set bail levels and determine who should or should not be released on bond.

Calabrese isnt just worried about the error rate of these decisions about 30 percent, according to the centers findings. Hes also concerned about the nature of those errors. Whats troubling from our perspective is that it tends to skew differently for different populations, he said. It makes it more likely that African Americans will be incarcerated while high-danger white people will be let out.

To address such potential hazards, the center has developed digital decision tools for schools and policymakers to help them determine whether algorithms are being used appropriately.

Policymakers need to be very conservative in how they deploy these technologies, Calabrese said. If something is new or experimental, you need to have a lot of skepticism about how it is going to do its job. You cant just defer to the computer.

A similar effort is underway at Harvards Berkman Klein Center for Internet and Society, a 20-year-old interdisciplinary research center. Originally focused on the intersection of law and technology, the center lately has been delving deep into ethical issues. Its Ethics and Governance of AI initiative looks at the challenges that stakeholders face in developing, using and regulating this technology.

We are looking at not just the technological side of AI, but at the ways in which these emerging technologies impact everything from the education of young people, to law and policy, to business, and even issues like democratic engagement and information-sharing online, said Ryan Budish, assistant director for research.

Researchers here are asking tough questions about AI deployments. How is the system trained? How is it validated? What biases were present in the underlying training data? How can policymakers test the system to be sure its not just replicating existing biases?

Budish, too, points to criminal justice as a point of urgent concern. There are a lot of different organizations out there, some very well intended and some just trying to sell snake oil, he said. If you are the IT person in the county court and your administrator wants you to choose a technology to help with this, you might not have the right background to evaluate the different systems. You might not even know the right questions to ask.

The Berkman Klein Center has looked at a range of state and local issues in which AI could play a part. The technology might be used to detect fraud in welfare benefits, or it could be used to identify which properties should be prioritized for fire-code inspections. Each scenario carries not just practical but moral implications as well.

To assist state and local leaders in their search for answers, the Berkman Klein Center shares best practices. Its researchers have looked at various real-world AI implementation policies, looking for common ground and also highlighting points of divergence. That helps folks who are trying to think about their own approach to these questions, when they can see what issues other folks are thinking about, Budish said.

The center also works directly with state attorneys general, helping them to craft policy that responds to the nuanced inner workings of artificial intelligence.

One of the big challenges with AI is that it can be really technical, and then folks just throw up their hands. It seems like magic, Budish said. Its not magic; it is something that people can understand. We can educate folks and put them in touch with experts who can help them to think critically about the way it impacts the work they are doing.

On the global front, the Berkman Klein Center collaborates with the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, and with the International Telecommunications Union, an agency of the United Nations. Through those efforts, the center has helped to develop AI governing principles that have been adopted by 42 countries.

Budish envisions the center as a potential bridge between civic leaders, who may be new to the conversation around the ethics of AI, and academics who have been exploring these issues for years. There are a lot of places where those conversations are happening, but those conversations are perhaps not always reaching policymakers, he said.

Philadelphia began addressing these issues in 2017 with the launch of GovLabPHL, a multi-agency collaboration using studies of human behavior to shape how the city interacts with residents. That effort led to the creation of a road map in early 2019, and those findings in turn are being leveraged today to help guide Phillys smart city initiatives.

Smart city development is a natural place to put into action the ethical precepts surrounding AI, said Philadelphia Smart Cities Director Emily Yates. All those cameras on light posts, the smart sensors and other apparatuses of civic improvement these are the front lines of AI implementation.

Philadelphia Smart Cities Director Emily Yates balances the usefulness of data collected by connected devices with citizen privacy.

"We are drilling down into specific topics. What do you attach to a smart street pole? Is AI going to be a surveillance program? And what happens to the data that we are pulling down? We are still fleshing out all of that, she said.

Yates office is developing a deep governance structure to ensure that key learnings are incorporated as AI usage increases. This includes executive leadership, an advisory committee, an internal working group and various subcommittees drawn from across city government.

This governmental infrastructure is key to the citys efforts to be responsible in its use of technology.

As the big thinkers address weighty questions around ethical usage, that information has to move up the ladder and across the ladder so that everyone in government is aware of these issues, Yates said. Its incumbent on the working group and the subcommittees to communicate to the relevant individuals and also to the mayors office, in order to put citywide policies in place.

In Philadelphia that effort includes deep engagement with the citys data network and security group, whose experts have weighed in on some of the most pressing issues. There is a tension of how granular and effective you can get with the data, while still respecting the boundaries of privacy and security, Yates said.

As cities and states continue to wrangle with the use and potential misuse of new technologies, Yates offers a practical vision. When it comes to the responsible use of data from automated decisions to biometric-informed surveillance government will be most successful when it is most transparent.

If you are going to put up a camera facing a mosque, you need to communicate what you are doing, who has ownership of that data, whether it is public, she said. Thats why we have the communications and marketing team as a subgroup working on this. We need to address the community so that they know what we are doing and why we are doing it in a specific way.

Serious peril looms for cities that fail to address the risks, or that come up with answers but fail to engage the community. Yates points to the big civic projects of the 1960s and 70s that tried to serve a greater good but ended up sowing distrust.

The worst case is that you spend a significant amount of money, the community gets concerned and then we have to shut it down, she said. We dont want to step backward and deploy technology in a way that makes people worry we might be using it in a way that could harm them.

Those with a firm grasp of the technological underpinnings as well as community sentiment may be best positioned to help government to state its case as it moves ahead to incorporate emerging innovations.

Its especially helpful to understand the cyclical nature of an AI deployment: The power of this technology lies in the algorithmic ability to learn over time. Civic leaders can take advantage of that to constantly improve upon their uses of the new tools.

In each stage of that process you need to interrogate your assumptions, Calabrese said. Is my data representative of the whole population? Will my assumptions impact everybody fairly? As a government official you can build fairness into the process, and you do that by understanding how this process works.

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Ethics in the Balance: AIs Implications for Government - Public CIO

Human Behavior

Column: Embracing the power of music | Shakopee Opinion – SW News Media

For the first time, I feel a lot of anxiety about our country. Its because of recent events. I suspect that most people, regardless of their political views, have seen, read, or experienced events that left them shaking their head if not sick to their stomach. I worry that weve become so bitterly divided that a reconciliation may not be possible, at least not anytime soon. Theres just so much anger and resentment that will be extremely hard to overcome.

I find a lot of solace in music. It makes me wonder if at some level, in some way, shape, or form, music might be the answer to bridging some problems and healing some wounds. Thats because everyone seems to share a passion for music. Its not always the same artists, songs, or genres, but theres probably some overlap between any two people.

I imagine that if you randomly took two people, no matter how politically or demographically different, and made a Venn diagram of their music, youd find common ground. Maybe finding things like music that we have in common with others is a good starting point for building a friendship or a least some level of trust.

For example, when I go to concerts, music is shared and consumed by thousands of people singing along and getting along. It makes me realize that people from across all ideologies can come together, and even form connections, over music.

Interestingly, or maybe ironically, a song popped up on my YouTube playlist last week from Frank Zappa called Trouble Every Day. The lyrics talk about social injustice, racial conflict, and sensationalist journalism. Zappa wrote the song in 1965 after watching the Watts Riots on TV. The riots, ignited by a traffic stop, resulted in 34 deaths, more than 1,000 injuries, about 4,000 arrests, and 1,000 buildings damaged or destroyed. This happened before I was born, yet the song profoundly captures current issues.

Ive read that music affects all parts of your brain, although there appears to be some debate about whether thats scientifically true or not. Regardless, science does confirm that music impacts brain function and human behavior. Its been shown to reduce stress, pain, and symptoms of depression. Thats not surprising. I always feel better when I listen to music.

Science also found that your favorite music triggers the same type of activity in your brain as other peoples' favorite tunes do in their brains. It doesnt matter if the music is Tori Amos, Iron Maiden, or Mozart. All people react the same way to their favorites, and sometimes various songs bring out different feelings, emotions, or memories.

Music is primal. It affects all of us, but in very personal, unique ways, said Jonathan Burdette, M.D, a neuroradiologist at Wake Forest Baptist Medical Center, in an article for ScienceDaily. Your interaction with music is different than mine, but its still powerful.

Ive found that turning off the news and turning on music, by myself or with others, is having a significant and positive effect on my mental health. I highly recommend it.

Brett Martin is a community columnist whos been a Shakopee resident for over 15 years.

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Column: Embracing the power of music | Shakopee Opinion - SW News Media

Human Behavior

It’s kind of terrifying how little has changed: Reflecting on two pandemics faced by the Black & LGBTQ community – Qcity metro

Brad Batch was at a party in Garner when he first heard about the virus.

The 30-year-old had recently moved back home after a few years in New Orleans.

A friend approached him and asked a strange question about his old college boyfriend, who was now living in New York.

Did you hear Richard has the gay flu?

This June marks the 50th anniversary of the first Pride parade, which arose in protest against police brutality and for the rights of LGBTQ people. Health equity has always been an indispensable part of that struggle.

Richard would be one of many million people to die in the global epidemic caused by human immunodeficiency virus, also known as HIV/AIDS. Batch, who is now 68, would eventually test positive for the virus himself.

But Pride looks different in 2020. Its a year where yet another pandemic has ravaged the LGBTQ community and a year where many of the people disproportionately impacted by it have already taken to the streets to protest for their lives.

Many experts say things are not that different from the last time they faced a pandemic.

Its kind of terrifying how little has changed actually, said Derrick Matthews, who researches health inequities experienced by LGBTQ people, particularly around HIV prevention and treatment for Black men, at the Gillings School of Global Public Health at UNC Chapel Hill.

Several comparisons have been made between the rise of the HIV pandemic in the United States in the 1980s and 90s and the current Covid-19 pandemic. Both diseases have ravaged vulnerable communities, particularly people of color. Both have been exacerbated by public health responses from government leaders and civilians, and both are still ongoing.

NC Health Newsspoke to a survivor of the HIV pandemic, a former CDC staffer who worked at the agency when the outbreak first hit, a public health researcher, and a local LGBTQ advocate. They reflected on how their understanding of the United States public health response to the HIV pandemic shapes their perspective of this present moment for members of the Black and LGBTQ community.

Gene Matthews was in the room when a director at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention first reported the strange incidence of the then-rare pneumocystis pneumonia in five gay men in Los Angeles in 1981.

I remember it like yesterday, said Matthews. It was right around this time of year.

Matthews, now a senior investigator at the North Carolina Institute for Public Health, was the chief legal officer at the organization at the time. He said hed grown up in the age of the antibiotic bubble in the United States, following the invention of the polio vaccine.

There wasnt anything that science, and hence in the private sector of pharmaceuticals, couldnt cure or protect us from, recalled Matthews. And all of a sudden, Mother Nature robbed us of that illusion, rather dramatically.

Matthews would continue with the agency throughout much of what would become known as the HIV pandemic.

Heres a disease thats spreading, were not quite sure how its spreading, you die a horrible death, there is no treatment, there is no cure. There is no vaccine. Does that sound familiar?

From his experience, Matthews said pandemics are always political.

Public health messages become weaponized in a highly polarized political environment, said Matthews. HIV was like catnip to politicians. It was called a gay disease there was pressure by Republicans to try to spin AIDS in a way that helped the 1984 re-election.

The administration of Ronald Reagan has beenwidely criticizedfor its response to the HIV/AIDS pandemic. Reagan himself did not publicly acknowledge HIV until 1985, when over 12,000 citizens had already died of the virus. The federal government ignored, and sometimeslaughed at, the HIV pandemic, said Matthews, largely because of who was first experiencing it. The presidents base had little interest in fighting the virus they believed they could not contract and were suspicious of government spending that interfered with the free market economy.

Sound familiar? Matthews again added. Covid doesnt have the same stigma, but it is at least as politicized now.

All of the people NCHN spoke to talked about seeing the same collective willful ignorance, as Matthews described it, to the novel coronavirus pandemic.

The comparisons Ive noticed are less the disease itself and more about our kind of social-cultural response to it, said Derrick Matthews of UNC, who shares no relation to Gene Matthews. I think that we see a lot of parallels with the kind of very poorly coordinated response.

Though the countrys initial response to Covid-19 was much faster than it was to HIV/AIDS, eventually leading to a nationwide shutdown, the United States remains disproportionately represented in the global pandemic death count accounting for 5 percent of the worlds population but 25 percent of total COVID-19 deaths due, in part, to the delayed response of the federal government to early warnings about the threat of the viruss spread.

Even today, as Covid-19 cases spike in 22 states, the pushes to reopen continues. President Donald Trump is considering ending the national coronavirus emergency and depending on political affiliation, citizens may disagree about the severity or in some cases, existence of the disease at all.

I think people have a tendency to go into denial mode. You can see it right now in Raleigh, said Batch, who continues to live in the area. Theres crowds of 20-and-30-somethings where a lot of the restaurants and bars are, and theyre not wearing masks and theyre not doing social distancing.

Theyre not worried about it, because theyre young they think it cant happen to them. A similar thing happened with HIV, where people said, Well, Im not gay, so Im not going to get it, he said. Of course, there were some unpleasant surprises about that.

Public health emergencies always ask us to confront our nations ongoing relationship with racism and bigotry, experts said.

The kind of hatred and bigotry thats surrounded a lot of conversations about the virus is just pure racism, said Derrick Matthews. You know, it seems like forever ago, but at the beginning of 2020 this was the Chinese virus, or the Wuhan virus.

That naming of it really made me think of HIV because you know the early name for HIV even the CDC had called it the 4H Disease.

Before the agency had an official name for HIV/AIDS syndrome, the public often referred to the virus as the 4H Disease the primary risk groups were Haitians, hemophiliacs, heroin users, and homosexuals.

It was very pejorative, said Gene Matthews. I dont like to repeat it. Because there was a certain racial undertone, particularly when talking about homosexuals and heroin users, of Theyre getting what they deserve.

But just like now, the virus attacks those with less health care resources.

The novel coronavirus has disproportionately impacted people of color in the United States. Black people account forover 30%of all hospitalizations from the virus nationally, despite making up just 18% of the population. In North Carolina, withcurrently availableracial data, 34% ofCovid-19 deathsare Black people, who make up just 22% of the state population.

Theres very much a segregation of whos becoming sick and dying, said Derrick Matthews.

And though many of the historical narratives around HIV have predominately featured white gay men, Derrick Matthews said HIV was no different.

The severity of that inequity was so intense, that I think part of the reason the faces of Black gay man and Black trans folks are so erased from that retelling is because, well, theyre gone, he said. As devastating as it was to gay men and queer men broadly, my friends and colleagues and I talk about this: We didnt have an entire generation of people who could mentor us on what it would mean to walk through the world in this country as a gay Black man.

The first known person to die of HIV may have actually been Robert Rayford, a16-year-old Black boyfrom St. Louis, in 1969. (His strain of the virus slightly differed from the one that led to the HIV pandemic in the 80s and continues to infect people today.)

HIV definitely affected the African-American community, and still affects African Americans, much more than the non-Hispanic white community, recalled Batch, who himself is white. Gay Black men and women had a double whammy, but they were not only oppressed by society for being gay.

Evolving ideas around intersectionality have paved the way for broader understanding of how different identities interact a person can be both gay and a person of color, for example.

In the 80s and early 90s, there were kind of the gay concerns around HIV and there were kind of Black concerns around HIV, said Derrick Matthews. When in fact, people who had identities rooted in both their Black race and their gay sexual orientation were the ones who were doing the work. Yet they were the very ones who were being ignored.

The HIV crisis, and the federal governments response to it, spurred LGBTQ people to protest for better health conditions. The pandemic politicized many members of the LGBTQ community, and the work the AIDS Coalition to Unleash Power (ACT UP) and other queer organizers led to changes in health policy such as faster and more widespread availability of experimental treatment drugs.

J. Clapp, executive director of the LGBTQ Center of Durham, points out that Black LGBTQ people have continued that work. Two of the three founders of the Black Lives Matter movement, Alicia Garza and Patrisse Cullors, identify as queer. From the beginning, organizers have stateddefending LGBTQ lifewas a key part of the movement.

He believes that the current Covid-19 pandemic may have further politicized members of the Black LGBTQ community contributing to more widespread participation in the recent spate of protests following the deaths of George Floyd, Breonna Taylor, Tony McDade and other people of color killed at the hands of law enforcement.

Black people are just tired, said Clapp. They were at Stonewall, they were there to fight Reagan during the HIV epidemic in the 80s and 90s. And here we are again, fighting for Black Lives Matter, in the middle of Covid.

The pandemic has put on display how intimately racism is tied to health. Its also given some LGBTQ people unprecedented space to engage in activism.

I dont know that this protest would be so large and prolonged without Covid, said Clapp, noting that many LGBTQ people, particularly those of color, weredisproportionatelyimpacted by gig economy and restaurant closures, creating opportunity and added incentive for them to participate in protests. Because racism is the actual public health crisis.

Derrick Matthews echoed these sentiments.

Covid-19 and police violence are essentially two sides of the same epidemic of racism, he said. The criminally negligent response to Covid is certainly a kind of more covert form of racism, but I think this is the critical piece people are not getting: These protesters recognize fully the threat of Covid, because its affecting their communities more. And theyre outside, marching, anyway.

Its a completely logical, and I think on-point assessment that racism and all of its poison fruit are the real threat to peoples health and safety, he added. Covid is just another manifestation of it.

Both pandemics are still ongoing.

A lot of people think that because PrEP is a reality, the HIV pandemic is over, said Clapp, referring to thetreatment-as-preventiondrug regimen that can arrest the spread of HIV. But there are still new transmissions. There are still people who are living with untreated HIV. Were on a good path, but we still continue to struggle to get PrEP and other resources into the hands of our most marginalized, which typically include people of color and trans people of color.

Covid-19 may even worsen the ongoing HIV crisis.

Im worried were going to see a lot of people fall out of HIV care and really start to undo the progress that weve made, said Derrick Matthews. So much of health insurance is tied to employment, and we know that people of color were among the ones to lose their jobs the most.

Many queer and trans people were in the service and gig economies. It puts these groups in even more jeopardy.

As scientists race for a vaccine for Covid-19, some members of the LGBTQ community remain similarly concerned about who will have access to it.

I cant help but wonder if, just like HIV, well come up with this really great solution thats really effective, but its going to get into the hands of people that need it the most, less, said Derrick Matthews. If it ever gets there at all.

I hope this really does get people thinking more broadly about what it means to live in a country that does not prioritize the health of its citizens? And I think were finding out.

If a vaccine occurs, its going to be difficult getting it out. And theres gonna have to be a bit of sorting about who gets it first, said Batch. I hope its done on a vulnerability basis, and not some dog whistle criteria where you dont come out and say, Well, were not gonna vaccinate you because youre Black or brown or Spanish or undocumented, but were gonna do some other criteria that basically means theres only like 2% of you that can get it.

Changing human behavior in the face of a pandemic is difficult.

It is not that easy to inspire or require the harm reduction behaviors that are appropriate to the new normal, said Dr. Myron Cohen, director of the Institute for Global Health and Infectious Diseases at UNC, at a June 24health briefingon Covid-19. Were being asked to do a thing inconsistent with the general behavior of our species.

We have had the same problems with HIV in inspiring risk reduction behavior. We know how the virus is transmitted, and as weve known how its transmitted weve had to inspire lots of behavior changes, which when used, are very effective. But theyre hard to sustain.

And with Covid-19, prevention behaviors depend on everyone, not just those at high risk for suffering the worst outcomes of the virus.

Gene Matthews, the former CDC official, said the HIV pandemic had to move out of marginalized communities for the majority of the public to take notice.

We got to a point where the majority of people in the country knew somebody with AIDS, said Matthews. Of course, AIDS was a death sentence.

Im not quite sure were there yet, where everybody in this country knows somebody personally that died of Covid. But believe me, we surely will be, unless some miracle [behavior change] occurs.

Derrick Matthews, of UNC, said hes often wondered if the public would be more concerned if the face of Covid-19 looked different. Yet at the same time, he, like the other Matthews, is worried there may be a bigger cultural problem.

There are literally people who think its made up, said Matthews. Literally. I hope we dont have to have to get to the point where basically everyone needs to know someone who died of Covid. But it feels like thats where were heading. And thats strange.

But Brad Batch said hes hopeful about individuals who are changing their behavior.

Im 68 years old. Ive looked back, and Ive seen this kind of stuff before, said Batch, who said he lost count of the number of people he knew who died of HIV. The thing is, you need to have hope. How do you respond to pandemics? You roll up your sleeves and get down to work.

With HIV, we marched, we did ACT UP, we handed out condoms on the street corners. They say you need to wear a mask, and you have a mask shortage? Well, you make some damn masks. And thats how you get through this. Im confident well get through this.

This story originally published on NC Health News and was republished with permission.

Hannah Critchfield is NC Health News Report for America fellow. RFA is a national service program that places talented emerging journalists in local newsrooms to report on under-covered topics and communities.

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It's kind of terrifying how little has changed: Reflecting on two pandemics faced by the Black & LGBTQ community - Qcity metro

Human Behavior

Young people ‘who consider themselves to be immortal’ are spreading coronavirus in SC – Greenville News

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A dozen teens gathered Monday night near a pair of pickups with glowing wheels in the parking lot of fast-food joint on Clemson Boulevard in Anderson. Two girls in the group hugged while a couple of boys high-fived.

None of them wore masks.

It was precisely the type of scene that worriesofficials who are watching COVID-19 infections surge among the younger residents of South Carolina.

Clusters of cases involvingteenagers who visited Myrtle Beach are attracting national attention.

AtClemson University, 37 of 120 football players tested positivefor the coronavirusin June.

People under age 40 now account for more than half of the 36,297 confirmed COVID-19 cases in South Carolina. Cases in those between the ages of 21 and 30 have soared by 966% since early April, according to the state Department of Health of Environmental Control.

While the virus might not cause severe sickness in otherwise healthy people in their teens, 20s or 30s, state epidemiologist Dr. Linda Bell said there are "disheartening increases in young people transmitting the virus to their family and friends," according to a DHEC press release.

At a news conference last week, Gov. Henry McMaster implored residents under age 40 "to follow the rules."

"We know that young people can have this disease and not know it.They feel completely healthy, yet they are completely infected, and they can easily pass that on to older people," he said. "I want to say in the strongest, most urgent terms: Keep that social distance, particularly if it's your parents, your grandparents or anyone older than you are. Be very, very careful. Keep that distance, wear that mask, wash your hands and be considerate.

"It is deadly important that we do that."

South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster speaks with reporters after the first meeting of accelerateSC, his advisory group about reopening the state economy, on Thursday, April 23, 2020, in Columbia, S.C. (AP Photo/Meg Kinnard)(Photo: Meg Kinnard, AP)

In June, new cases of COVID-19 increased nearly 200% throughout South Carolina, and the number of hospitalized patients more than doubled. COVID-19 has now claimed at least 735 lives in the state.

And DHEC officials issued a new warning with a press release this week ahead of Independence Day. They urgedSouth Carolinians to avoid large gatherings:

"The agency recommends families instead celebrate the Fourth of July by planning home-based festivities and watching fireworks shows while remaining in their vehicles or tuning into celebrations virtually."

Dozens of students from Kentucky, Ohio, Virginia and West Virginia have tested positive for COVID-19 after vacationing in Myrtle Beach in the past few weeks, according to published reports.

A Myrtle Beach TV station reported Tuesday on an outbreak involving about 100 teenagers from the Washington, D.C., area who returned from a recent trip to South Carolina's top tourist destination. The report cited an email from the health director forLoudon County, Virginia, that said that up to 50 people were staying in single homes and that there were parties that more than 100 people attended in Myrtle Beach.

Karen Riordan, president and CEO of the Myrtle Beach Area Chamber of Commerce, said she also heard about COVID-19 cases involving a group of 90 students from a Columbia high school who did not wear masks or practice social distancing while visitinga Grand Strand beach.

"Obviously that is a regrettable situation," Riordan said. "Unfortunately we can't control all human behavior."

Riordan said there have been problems with young people who "consider themselves to be immortal" who have been vacationing in Myrtle Beach and elsewhere in the state.

She mentioned a busload of students from Ohio who admitted after returning home from Myrtle Beach that "they had not worn masks and they had not practiced social distancing and they pretty much ignored all of the guidelines."

"First and foremost, we are very sorry that people got sick," Riordansaid. "It's terrible. It's certainly not good for our local or our national reputation."

Beth Short, left, and James Jones, middle, of Atlanta, walk with Chris Scott to the shore after fishing in the Atlantic Ocean in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina Wednesday, May 6, 2020. (Photo: Ken Ruinard / staff)

The number of new COVID-19 cases in Horry County, which is home to Myrtle Beach, skyrocketed by more than 600% in June.

"There is a lot of concern and alarm by our business community but also our residents," Riordan said. "We've been doing such a good job until June in keeping the cases in Horry County actually quite low."

Down the coast in Charleston County, 1,771 new cases of COVID-19 were reported in the past week, including 375 on Tuesday alone, according to DHEC.

In comparison, there were 1,190 new COVID-19 cases during the past week in Greenville County, which state officials classified as a "hot spot" last month.

The Greenville City Council passed a measure last week requiring residents to wear masks in grocery stores and pharmacies. Several other cities, including Charleston, Clemson and Columbia, have followed suit byadopting similar rules.

McMaster and DHEC officials spoke about the COVID-19 outbreaks and cases spreading at the state's beaches during last week's news conference.

"We're hearing stories about groups coming back from the beach with just about everybody who was in the group infected," McMaster said.

These outbreaks "put the health of their families and their entire communities at risk," said Dr. Joan Duwve, DHEC's public health director.

Duwverecommended that anyone that has visited a South Carolina beach who did not wear a mask or practice social distancing should get tested for COVID-19.

Yet while health officials fret about increasing COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations across the state, the Myrtle Beach chamber is running TV ads in 60 markets across the nation, Riordan said.

State tourism officials also are spending $1 million on a mostly digital advertising campaign that will extend through the end of July in hopes of attracting visitors who live within 375 miles ofSouth Carolina.

One of the videos added to the Discover South Carolina YouTube channel last month features a lifeguard on a beach. The ad tells potential visitors,"When you're ready, we're ready."

In the month following Memorial Day, COVID-19 cases across the nation in people under 17 years of age jumped by 144%, according to a USA TODAY analysis of data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control & Prevention.

As the number of new COVID-19 infections in the U.S. topped 40,000 per day for the first time since the pandemic began, Vice President Mike Pence and members of the federal coronavirus task force held a media briefing last Friday in Washington, D.C.

"The overwhelming majority of people now getting infected are young people," Dr. Anthony Fauci,director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said during the briefing.

Responding to rising COVID-19 cases, officials in South Florida and Los Angeles have announced that they are closing beaches for the Fourth of July weekend.

Bars, gyms, movie theaters and water parks are shutting down in Arizona for the next 30 days.

Pence sought to put a positive spin on the increasing rate of infections in younger people by stressing that they are less susceptible than older individuals to serious outcomes of coronavirus.

"The fact that we are finding more younger Americans who've contracted the coronavirus is a good thing," Pence said at last week's briefing.

But, he cautioned, younger people with COVID-19 must act responsibly.

"We need them to do their part to make sure and protect the most vulnerable," he said.

Kirk Brown covers government and politics. Follow him on Twitter @KirkBrown_AIM

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Young people 'who consider themselves to be immortal' are spreading coronavirus in SC - Greenville News

Human Behavior

Scientists Propose a New Name for Nature in the Time of COVID-19: The ‘Anthropause’ – Smithsonian Magazine

As the world slowed down during the COVID-19 pandemic, it seemed thatanecdotally, at leastanimal took notice. Pumas crept into an unusually quiet Santiago, Chile; jackals in Tel Aviv, Israel roamed freely in parks.

The profound change in human activity occasioned by the pandemic might be having a likewise profound effect on animals around the world, researchers say. Recently, a team of scientists coined a name to describe this phenomenon: the anthropause.

We noticed that people started referring to the lockdown period as the Great Pause, but felt that a more precise term would be helpful, the authors write in the article published in Nature Ecology & Evolution article last week. We propose anthropause to refer specifically to a considerable global slowing of modern human activities, notably travel.

The study authors argue that this moment presents a unique opportunity to study global patterns in animal behavior. There is an amazing research opportunity, which has come about through really tragic circumstances, lead author Christian Rutz, a biologist at the University of St. Andrews, tells Matt Simon of Wired magazine. And we acknowledge that in the article. But its one which we as a scientific community really cant afford to miss. Its an opportunity to find more about how humans and wildlife interact on this planet.

The researchers identified a number of urgent steps that they say scientists should take, including pooling global-scale research on the activity of animals during this period and making it widely accessible, reports Victoria Gill for BBC News. For instance, the researchers cite the recently formed COVID-19 Bio-Logging Initiative, a global project to track animals movements, behavior and stress levels with small electronic trackers called bio-loggers.

Researchers cite anecdotal evidence that some species have been enjoying the extra space with more humans stuck at home. However, the pandemic is also having adverse effects on many species, especially those that rely on human protection. Some areas have noted increases in poaching, Gill reports for BBC News. Many conservation efforts, such as a project to protect endangered birds in the southern Atlantic Ocean, have also been put on hold due to social distancing measures, according to Wired.

As Natasha Daly reported for National Geographic in March, misinformation about spectacular encounters with wildlife proliferated in the first months of lockdownsuch as a viral video of Venetian dolphins swimming in clear blue water that turned out to be from Sardinia. (A tongue-in-cheek meme circulated on social media in response to the earnest, viral spread of false accounts, with the phrase: Nature is healing, we are the virus.)

The study authors write that it will be important to distinguish these kinds of anecdotal accounts from verifiable trends in wildlife populations during the pandemic.

At present, it is impossible to say which observations have been hyped by social media, and which expert predictions about global animal responses will hold true, the authors write in the study. But what is clear is that humans and wildlife have become more interdependent than ever before, and that now is the time to study this complex relationship. A quantitative scientific investigation is urgently needed.

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Scientists Propose a New Name for Nature in the Time of COVID-19: The 'Anthropause' - Smithsonian Magazine

Human Behavior

The U.S. Isnt in a Second Wave of Coronavirus The First Wave Never Ended – EcoWatch

Stephen Reicher is a social psychologist at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland, where he researches collective behavior and social identity. DW spoke to him for the second season of the environmental podcast On The Green Fence.

DW: We've watched the collective move very fast in response to this crisis. Were you amazed by that?

Stephen Reicher: At one level, I wasn't. If you look at the literature on what happens in emergencies, the traditional literature plays into this notion of the public as a problem the idea that human beings are always psychologically frail and they always have difficulty in dealing with complex information. And under a crisis, they crack, they panic. You would never have a Hollywood disaster film without people running, screaming, waving their hands in the air and blocking the exits.

But actually, that isn't what happens in disasters. When people come together, when they have a sense that others will support them, especially in situations of difficulty, then it makes them better able to cope and more psychologically resilient. Collectivity is the resource that allows us to cope practically, but also psychologically, to get through these times.

Why was the response to the coronavirus seemingly so easy, particularly when compared to the far more existential threat of climate change? What is the difference between these two?

The temporality of the issue, the fact that it is immediate, the ways in which it is tangible and the way in which it is unarguable.

If you are talking about the events that are happening now due to climate change and that are killing people, it is probabilistic that climate change was critical to them. The probabilities are very, very high. But it is not immediately self-evident in the same way that it's evident that somebody is dying from coronavirus. These things become arguable.

And that's where the second factor comes in, which is the political factor. In some places it has been consensual, and it has been pretty positive. And that's because politicians have not tried to argue or mobilize against compliance with medically necessary measures. In other places, that's not true in the United States, for instance, where Trump has been supporting those in various states who have been calling it a "lockdown tyranny." And in Brazil, and in India.

The other absolutely obvious point differentiating coronavirus from climate change are the political differences and the differences in terms of political leadership in terms of a) how we understand what's going on, and b) how we should respond to what's going on.

If I understood you correctly, if there were general consensus and a general realization that we are facing an existential threat and everybody really believed the science, the collective would be moved to action. Is it really that simple or is something else holding us back?

At the moment we are acting collectively towards members of our community who are currently alive, and we can see whether they will live or die. It is much more abstract in the sense of climate change because we are acting for many of those who are not yet born they might be our children or grandchildren.

It's the articulation of the psychological and lived experience with the ideological way in which we make sense of it and explain it and are told how to behave. The reason why the political, in many ways, is more powerful in undermining action on climate change is because it is much more abstract. It is a much less direct experience.

Do we need role models to catalyze change? And if so, what kind of role models? If Greta Thunberg, for instance, can't pull it off, then who could?

We need leadership. I don't think it's entirely coincidental that some of the countries where coronavirus is raging most dangerously are those with toxic leadership, as in the United States, as in Brazil. Whereas in some of those countries which are doing well like New Zealand the leadership takes a very different form indeed.

Leadership can take many forms. It doesn't have to be traditional. It doesn't have to be hierarchical. It doesn't have to be a single individual. It can be distributed. But you need voices which, firstly, serve to create a sense of community and communal responsibility. Secondly, they need to form a relationship with the public. A leader needs to be seen in many ways as one of us, as acting for us, and as achieving for us, in order to be effective.

Leadership is effective to the extent that we believe that a leader is representative of us, understands who we are and what we value. More than ever, we do need good, inclusive leadership that engages with the public rather than imposes on the public.

On a personal level, Steve, if you as a social psychologist could mold the change that we'd need to achieve for a sustainable world, how would you go about putting the collective on the right track?

The group is always going to be part of the solution. Groups can do awful things and groups can do magnificent things. The problem doesn't lie in group psychology, per se. It depends on the specific ideologies and cultures that define the groups we belong to. How inclusive or exclusive are they? What are the norms and values that define the nature of our community? Are they values of compassion or are they values of strength and domination? Not all groups are good, but that depends upon the group culture.

The thing that is absolutely clear, however, is that if you get rid of groups, then you get rid of the one vehicle of change that we've actually got. If you get rid of groups, you freeze the status quo. The power of the powerless lies in their combination. I think we can wield that power for good rather than for ill.

Do you think we're going to pull this off? If the science is right, we are running out of time. When it comes to the changes that have to be made, are we going to be magnificent? Are we going to be horrible?

There is a problem with the debate that's going on at the moment. Some people are telling us that coronavirus is going to change the world for the good we're going to realize that collectivity is terrible, we're going to realize that precarity is destructive and that inequalities kill. And other people are saying, no, no, no, it's going to be completely awful we're all going to be divided, we're going have a recession which will pit us against each other.

The danger of making predictions in those forms is that it gives rise to fatalism. Either you believe it's going be awful so there is nothing you can do about it, or you believe it's going to happen anyway and therefore you don't need to do anything about it. Those were the critiques, for instance, of mechanical forms of Marxism.

I don't think there is any inevitable outcome. I'm not a prophet. If we want to move forward progressively, we've got to harness the power of the collective. We've got to understand how it's within the collective that we become agents who can actually make and change our own world.

To predict is to be counterproductive. It pacifies people. It says "the future will be like this," rather than to say "we need to fight for the future."

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The U.S. Isnt in a Second Wave of Coronavirus The First Wave Never Ended - EcoWatch

Human Behavior

Coronavirus in Ohio: No single number captures the pandemic. But watch this one. – Massillon Independent

Back in April, health experts warned Kaiser Health News, a leading provider of health news and information, that a one-day peak in cases would not signal that the tide had turned against the new coronavirus.Two months later, what's clear in Hamilton County is that the trend here is sharply up and there's no clear sign of a peak.

On June 18, the county recorded at least 100 new COVID-19 positive patients for the first time. Since then, seven more days (including Sunday, the last day for which data are available) have exceeded 100 cases.

Scientists use averages to figure out the ups and downsof infectious diseases such as the virus. With the coronavirus, they oftenuse one of three different averages to track trends in new cases.

State officials feature the 21-day moving average on Ohio's coronavirus dashboard. It accounts for the 10 to 14 days that it takes for many people to display symptoms once they've been infected by the virus. (Except that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates 35% of the infected never show symptoms, a number lower than found in some studies.)

Twenty-one days ago, Hamilton County's21-day average of cases was 38, according to an Enquirer analysis of data from the Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 tracking project. On June 18, that first date of 100-plus cases, the 21-day average was 45. By June 22, when the county had a single-day record of 191 new positive results, the average was 61. A week later, on June 28, it was 89.

With new case totals over 100 foreach of the last five days, the 21-day averagewill keep going higher this week with no plateau, much less a decline, on the horizon.

The average of new cases sometimes is expressed in other ways.

The seven-day average is used by the Associated Press and other news organizations. Hamilton County's seven-day average is 138 cases, nearly double from the level on June 18 (when that first 100-plus count was reported). The White House coronavirus task force used the 14-day average, keeping in mind the virus' incubation period, when it set up criteria for reopening businesses, schools and the like. The county's 14-day average is 115 cases, more than twice the reading on June 18.

Bottom line: All three averages have risen sharply at the end of this month.

The result: State and even federal officialsare worried we haven't seen a peak in Hamilton County. The county was among the hot spots nationally discussed by Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine in a conference call with Vice President Mike Pence, head of the Trump administration's coronavirus task force.

What do other numbers tell us?

1. A measure of the coronavirus that's based in part on community spread is flashing red in Hamilton County, as well asin Butler, Kenton and Warren counties.

The measure is the R0 (spoken asR-naught, pronounced AHR-nawt)or reproductive number. Data from the Health Collaborative, a consortium of hospitals in the Cincinnati area, show the virus' R0 in the four counties is above one.The R0indicatesthe number of people, on average, that one infected person will subsequently infect. Any reading above one indicates infections are rising. But it's worth noting that the R0 is an estimate anddifficult to calculate (in part because it measures human behavior, which can change abruptly).

2. Infection rates are highest among younger people in the region, with the positive test rate for those ages 20-30 at over 10%.

The Health Collaborative data show the positive rate in this age group rose in the second half of June to above 10% even as the positive rate fell in all other age groups.

The local data mirrors a national trend. People under 45 made up 42% of cases before Memorial Day weekend but 55% of cases reported since then, USA TODAY analysis has found.

The trend holds in places where new cases are surging and in those that are not, according to the analysis of data from 25 states and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

3. Local hospitals have room but beds are filling

Hospitalizations are rising across the Cincinnati region.The number of COVID-19 patients in Hamilton County's hospitals has doubled from a low of 65 people on June 11 to more than 130 this weekend, DeWine said at his Monday news conference.

The Health Collaborative's dashboard showed the region's hospital and ICU beds just under 80% occupancy on Sunday. So there's room for more patients, but not the surplus of space that existed inearly May, as the pandemic was easing.

In addition, more young people are ending up in the hospital with COVID-19, an Enquirer analysis of state data shows. People under 40 accounted for 11% of Hamilton County hospitalized cases in March and April. But that rose to 19% in May and stands at 37.4% so far in June.

Kaiser Health News and USA TODAY contributed.

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Coronavirus in Ohio: No single number captures the pandemic. But watch this one. - Massillon Independent

Human Behavior

The US isn’t in a second wave of coronavirus the first wave never ended – Kiowa County Press

The U.S. as a whole is facing a huge surge in coronavirus cases, but the differences between states like New York and Florida are striking. Kena Betancur/1207979953 via Getty Images

Melissa Hawkins, American University

After sustained declines in the number of COVID-19 cases over recent months, restrictions are starting to ease across the United States. Numbers of new cases are falling or stable at low numbers in some states, but they are surging in many others. Overall, the U.S. is experiencing a sharp increase in the number of new cases a day, and by late June, had surpassed the peak rate of spread in early April.

When seeing these increasing case numbers, it is reasonable to wonder if this is the dreaded second wave of the coronavirus - a resurgence of rising infections after a reduction in cases.

The U.S. as a whole is not in a second wave because the first wave never really stopped. The virus is simply spreading into new populations or resurging in places that let down their guard too soon.

A wave of an infection describes a large rise and fall in the number of cases. There isn't a precise epidemiological definition of when a wave begins or ends.

But with talk of a second wave in the news, as an epidemiologist and public health researcher, I think there are two necessary factors that must be met before we can colloquially declare a second wave.

First, the virus would have to be controlled and transmission brought down to a very low level. That would be the end of the first wave. Then, the virus would need to reappear and result in a large increase in cases and hospitalizations.

Many countries in Europe and Asia have successfully ended the first wave. New Zealand and Iceland have also made it through their first waves and are now essentially coronavirus-free, with very low levels of community transmission and only a handful of active cases currently.

[Get our best science, health and technology stories. Sign up for The Conversation's science newsletter.]

In the U.S., cases spiked in March and April and then trended downward due to social distancing guidance and implementation. However, the U.S. never reduced spread to low numbers that were sustained over time. Through May and early June, numbers plateaued at approximately 25,000 new cases daily.

We have left that plateau. Since mid-June, cases have been surging upwards. Additionally, the percentage of COVID-19 tests that are returning positive is climbing steeply, indicating that the increase in new cases is not simply a result of more testing, but the result of an increase in spread.

As of writing this, new deaths per day have not begun to climb, but some hospitals' intensive care units have recently reached full capacity. In the beginning of the outbreak, deaths often lagged behind confirmed infections. It is likely, as Anthony Fauci, the nation's top infectious-disease specialist said on June 22, that deaths will soon follow the surge in new cases.

After months of strict social distancing rules, New York has reduced its new cases to a fraction of what they were in April and is still being cautious. John Nacion/STAR MAX/IPx 2020/AP Images

Looking at U.S. numbers as a whole hides what is really going on. Different states are in vastly different situations right now and when you look at states individually, four major categories emerge.

Places where the first wave is ending: States in the Northeast and a few scattered elsewhere experienced large initial spikes but were able to mostly contain the virus and substantially brought down new infections. New York is a good example of this.

Places still in the first wave: Several states in the South and West - see Texas and California - had some cases early on, but are now seeing massive surges with no sign of slowing down.

Places in between: Many states were hit early in the first wave, managed to slow it down, but are either at a plateau - like North Dakota - or are now seeing steep increases - like Oklahoma.

Places experiencing local second waves: Looking only at a state level, Hawaii, Montana and Alaska could be said to be experiencing second waves. Each state experienced relatively small initial outbreaks and was able to reduce spread to single digits of daily new confirmed cases, but are now all seeing spikes again.

The trends aren't surprising based on how states have been dealing with reopening. The virus will go wherever there are susceptible people and until the U.S. stops community spread across the entire country, the first wave isn't over.

The 1918 flu came back with a vengeance after a mutation and lack of preparedness set the stage for tens of millions of deaths during the second wave. Universal History Archive/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

It is possible - though at this point it seems unlikely - that the U.S. could control the virus before a vaccine is developed. If that happens, it would be time to start thinking about a second wave. The question of what it might look like depends in large part on everyone's actions.

The 1918 flu pandemic was characterized by a mild first wave in the winter of 1917-1918 that went away in summer. After restrictions were lifted, people very quickly went back to pre-pandemic life. But a second, deadlier strain came back in fall of 1918 and third in spring of 1919. In total, more than 500 million people were infected worldwide and upwards of 50 million died over the course of three waves.

It was the combination of a quick return to normal life and a mutation in the flu's genome that made it more deadly that led to the horrific second and third waves.

Thankfully, the coronavirus appears to be much more genetically stable than the influenza virus, and thus less likely to mutate into a more deadly variant. That leaves human behavior as the main risk factor.

Until a vaccine or effective treatment is developed, the tried-and-true public health measures of the last months - social distancing, universal mask wearing, frequent hand-washing and avoiding crowded indoor spaces - are the ways to stop the first wave and thwart a second one. And when there are surges like what is happening now in the U.S., further reopening plans need to be put on hold.

Melissa Hawkins, Professor of Public Health, Director of Public Health Scholars Program, American University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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The US isn't in a second wave of coronavirus the first wave never ended - Kiowa County Press