In a normal year, the holiday season an opportunity for families and friends to gather and celebrate special days with food and merriment. But against a backdrop of the Covid-19 pandemic, many are now trying to puzzle out safe ways to celebrate.

2020s holiday season has already startedDiwali was November 14and a poll conducted by Ohio State University found that over the next few months, 38 percent of Americans plan to attend gatherings of ten or more people, Zeeshan Aleem reports for Vox. To help people figure out ways to reduce the risks of gatherings like these, researchers around the country have developed free online tools that visualize different facets of the pandemics dangers.

Experts warn that people shouldnt rely too heavily on any single risk-assessment tool because they can give a false sense of security, Allyson Chiu reports for the Washington Post. But for those who plan to gather this holiday season, the tools might help come up with creative ways to reduce risk.

Georgia Institute of Technologys Interactive Map

What this tool can tell you: This interactive map shows the likelihood of encountering someone with a coronavirus infection depending on how many people are at the event, and where the event is taking place.

The tool could be used by government officials deciding how to design public health policies, Deborah Netburn reports for the Los Angeles Times. But it could also help holiday travelers assess the risks of their origins and destinations.

Its also the only peer-reviewed tool available. Its creators published a paper about the research behind the tool in Nature Human Behavior on November 9.

What this tool cant tell you: The map doesnt show the risk of contracting the virus at an event, George Washington University professor of medicine and health policy William Borden tells the Washington Post. It doesnt take into account whether the event is held indoors or outdoors, whether people are wearing masks or attendees behavior before the event.

What this tool can tell you: This tool looks at what kind of event is being held; how many people will be there and for how long; the events location; and how many people will be wearing masks. Considering those factors, it calculates the risk estimate from low to very high. The app then walks the user through a series of suggestions to reduce risk.

What we wanted to do was help people directly visualize how their behavior can directly impact their risk of contracting the virus, Elizabeth Goldberg, an emergency physician at Brown University, tells Kelcie Pegher at the Los Angeles Times.

What this tool cant tell you: Like the Georgia Institute of Technologys interactive map, this tool doesnt take into account individuals behavior before an event. (For example: Are they eating indoors at resturants? Are they working remotely?) The app developers plan to translate the app in several languages, they tell the Los Angeles Times, but it is currently available in English.

What this tool can tell you: A team at the University of Colorado Boulder created a model to determine the risk of coronavirus transmission in different spaces, like offices, classrooms or indoor house parties, Maya Wei-Haas and Kennedy Elliot reported for National Geographic in August.

The charts published in National Geographic allow people to alter the local infection rate, the square feet per person and the effectiveness of masks that people are wearing. After taking those variables into account, the charts show how likely infection becomes over the course of three hours in the space.

What this tool cant tell you: A few factors in the model might be difficult for an average user to guess before an event, like the percent effectiveness of the masks that other people will be wearing. The model also doesnt account for how risk increases when you stand closer to an infected person, where the virus-carrying droplets would be more concentrated.

What this tool can tell you: This tool uses detailed information about the design of a room to estimate the risk of Covid-19 transmission in that space. You can input information about the rooms floor plan, ceiling height, ventilation and filtration systems. The tool also asks how many people will be in the space, and for how long, and whether or not people will wear masks.

By getting into the nitty-gritty of an event space, it addresses some of the gaps in other tools.

What this tool doesnt tell you: This tool doesnt take an events geographic location into account and how many Covid-19 cases there currently are locallu. It also doesnt attempt to estimate the likelihood of an infectious person showing up. But it does allow you to add a hypothetical infectious person to your party.

None of the tools can anticipate every possible scenario, and any event where people gather comes with some risk of Covid-19 transmission. The U.S. has recorded more than 100,000 new cases per day every day since November 4, and cases surged in Canada after their Thanksgiving in October.

Several states are putting restrictions in place for the next few months. In some places, indoor gatherings are limited to ten people or fewer. In Oregon, the limit is six people to an indoor gathering from no more than two households, AARPs Dena Bunis and Jenny Rough report. Some states also require out-of-state visitors to quarantine for two weeks.

According to the CDC's guidelines for holiday gatherings, hosts should limit the number of attendees at any event, events should take place outdoors, and guests should wear masks as much as possible. For example, holidays could be celebrated with a quick visit to see family, but without a meal, so everyone could stay masked.

Were going to look back at what happened during this holiday season and ask ourselves, Were we part of the solution or were we part of the problem? says Iahn Gonsenhauser, chief quality and patient safety officer at Ohio State Universitys Wexner Medical Center, in a statement. When youre gathered together around the table, engaged in conversation, sitting less than six feet apart with your masks down, even in a small group, thats when the spread of this virus can really happen.

Of course, the safest option would be to hold events virtually, and skip in-person, indoor gatherings, especially big groups, altogether this year. At a Mississippi State Medical Association video conference, the group's president Mark Horne had a sober message for attendees, reports Ashton Pittman for the Mississippi Free Press.

We dont really want to see Mamaw at Thanksgiving and bury her by Christmas, Horne says. Its going to happen. Youre going to say hi at Thanksgiving, its so nice to see you, and youre either going to be visiting her by Facetime in the ICU or planning a small funeral by Christmas."

Read more here:
Five Online Tools for Evaluating Covid-19 Risk Ahead of the Holidays - Smithsonian Magazine