If theres one lesson we should have learned over the last four years, its that human behavior is unpredictable, and even our most formidable experts are capable of flawed analysis.

So when The New York Times reports that concerts and other large-scale events are likely to be absent from our lives until fall 2021, the proper response is to take it into consideration along with other possibilities.

But in fairness, the expert who made this prediction is oncologist and Center for American Progress senior fellow Dr. Zeke Emanuel, who is no Cassandra and even less a fool. You may know Emanuel as the older brother of former Chicago mayor and White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel, but his youngest brother, Ari Emanuel, is the CEO of William Morris-Endeavor, one of the largest talent agencies in the film and music industries.

So, yknow, he knows a lot about the human body and has secondhand perspective on how governments and concerts are run.

Larger gatherings conferences, concerts, sporting events when people say theyre going to reschedule this conference or graduation event for October 2020, I have no idea how they think thats a plausible possibility, Emanuel said to the Times. I think those things will be the last to return. Realistically were talking fall 2021 at the earliest.

It wasnt long after that this prediction made the rounds on social media. Fall 2021 became a trending Twitter search after MetalSucks ran a story under the headline Healthcare Expert Says Concerts Wont Return Until Fall 2021 At the Earliest. " Perhaps inadvertently, the story quickly became an indisputable fact:

Its possible that we will go a year-and-a-half without concerts, as Dr. Emanuel predicts, but its also possible that we experience some miraculous breakthrough in the form of a vaccine. Theres a small chance that the coronavirus will wane as temperatures rise over the summer. Conversely, Americas death toll could reach six-digits, and the outbreak could escalate to a point where fall 2021 seems like wishful thinking. Not to bum you out or anything.

The point is, nobody knows for certain whats going to happen, so perhaps people on social media are being myopic when they settle into one view alone in Emanuels prediction.

The big takeaway from the physician's assessment isnt that we may go a year-and-a-half without concerts (although we shouldnt rule it out) its that concerts and other mass gatherings will be the last things to come back once things go back to normal.

See original here:
Are Concerts Really Not Coming Back Until 2021? - Dallas Observer