Monthly Archives: January 2020

Human Behavior

Hacking the Hackers: Adversarial AI and How to Fight It – Security Boulevard

Advances in Artificial Intelligence (AI) have led to smarter, more robust network security platforms that are quickly replacing legacy security solutions.

Hackers are all too aware of the potential. As is often the case with new technology, in the wrong hands, AI can be used as a powerful cybercrime tool.

Adversarial AI refers to AI technology that is used to cause harm in some way. In the case of network security, adversarial AI can include automated attacks and breaches.

One example is the automation of phishing attacks. Todays AI can create more convincing, natural-language communications, resulting in more successful attacks.

These communications can be through email, where AI can incorporate language aligned with the corporate culture of a given target.

Adversarial AI can even be used by phone. AI can crawl social media accounts, grab snippets of recorded voices from sources like speeches, and then trick call recipients into thinking they are speaking with a trusted coworker or authority figure. This technology has also been used to bypass voice-activated security systems.

Other adversarial AI targets include:

Chatbots (live help sessions and surveys, for instance)

AI-integrated malware

Text messaging systems

For every successful traditional type of cybercrime, there is likely an AI-enhanced version already in use or being developed.

Skilled hackers can create malware that mimics routinely-used system components, granting access to highly sensitive, proprietary data.

Worst of all, adversarial AI is so unpredictable that security analysts arent usually able to prepare for these attacks. Even modern, supervised learning platforms are no match for the new and growing threat posed by adversarial AI.

Combatting adversarial AI threats requires broad predictive capabilities. In other words, the only way to stop adversarial AI is by equipping your network with equally-capable technology.

MixModes third-wave AI is meeting the challenge. Through its use of intelligent, unsupervised generative AI, the MixMode platform can accurately predict and prevent most attacks and respond immediately if an attacker does gain access.

MixMode creates a baseline of a network over a few days, developing a foundation of network knowledge the platform can use to detect anomalies. Specifically, unsupervised generative AI predicts the next five-minutes of network activity and then compares actual activity.

MixMode saves time and human capital. Unsupervised AI, not surprisingly, requires no supervision. SecOps teams can trust MixMode to root out and respond to security threats as they happen. MixModes robust capabilities result in fewer false positives for teams to analyze, freeing up time for these professionals to focus on real threats.

In essence, MixModes third-wave AI is sophisticated enough to mimic human behavior and detect suspicious activity even if it has yet to encounter the scenario at hand. This is in stark contrast to security solutions that are bound by the limitations of their coding. It is all but impossible for a coder to dream up all the possible ways a network might be attacked.

Read a case study about how MixMode was able to detect and stop a bad actor that had breached a companys network before the hacker was able to access customer data.Work with one of MixModes network security experts to set up a demo and learn how our platform can better protect your valuable network assets.

Hacks and Breaches of 2019: A Year in Review

Our Top 5 Cybersecurity Insights from 2019

What Trends Will Shape the Cybersecurity Industry in 2020?

How AI Can Help You Stay CCPA Compliant

Generative Unsupervised Learning vs. Discriminative Clustering Technology: Which Prevents Zero-Day Attacks?

Multi-Stream Cybersecurity and How it Can Save Your Business from a Zero-Day Attack

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Hacking the Hackers: Adversarial AI and How to Fight It - Security Boulevard

Human Behavior

China’s Repression of the Uighurs Merits a Strong Human Rights Response – Daily Signal

Last year, I had the privilege of taking a private tour of the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museums Americans and the Holocaust exhibit. The purpose of the exhibit is to highlight the role of average Americans and their response to the events of the Holocaust.

As I wandered the halls of the museum, my eyes were drawn to articles from World War II highlighting Kristallnacht and the concentration camps of Nazi Germany. But nothing was more stunning than the row of miniature suitcases lined upeach one representing 1,000 Jewish people (mothers, fathers, sons, daughters, grandmothers, grandfathers) who sought asylum in the United States.

The exhibit transitioned quickly from the reality of the needs (hundreds of thousands seeking asylum) to the U.S. response. American journalists wrote droves of articles; student groups lobbied; and Treasury SecretaryHenry Morgenthau, the lone Jewish member of FDRs Cabinet, paved the way for the creation of the War Refugee Board that resulted in more than 100,000 European Jews being resettled in the U.S. and ultimately spared during the Holocaust.

Now, instead of witnessing the assault of the German government on Jewish people, the American people are watching history repeat itself, as another governmentthis time,Chinalaunches an all-out assault on the Muslim religious minority Uighurs.

The breakneck speed with which the Chinese government has collectivized and interred what is now believed to be 1.8 million Muslims in political reeducation camps is breathtaking.

The facts are now undeniable.

The recent leak of classified data fromChinaby The New York Times confirmed the existence of a vast web of political prison camps that Xinjiang expert Adrian Zenz of the Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation now believes number between 1,300 and 1,400.

The data leak, now termed the Xinjiang Papers, traces the massive repression and internment directly to the very top of the Chinese political system. There can be no doubt that Xi Jinping created, sold, and orchestrated this modern phenomenon in partnership with Xinjiang Party Secretary Chen Quanguo.

The proposal of mass collectivization and arbitrary detention of nearly 2 million people was apparently objected to by some members of the Chinese Communist Party. The Xinjiang Papers reveals that those who objected were subsequently purged.

There is no shortage of reasons why anyone might object to these camps. Prisoners in the camps are subject to reeducation reminiscent of the Cultural Revolution. Forced to recant their religious beliefs or at least make them conform with the CCPs ends, they are also induced to forsake their native language in favor of Mandarin.

New reports indicate that individuals in the camps may be subject to forced sterilization and are injected with unknown substances to be experimented on like lab rats. Torture is increasingly reported, and some have even died while in custody.

While Chinese authorities have sought to sell reeducation camps as vocational training centers that Uighurs graduate from and go on to live so-called reformed lives, what that means in practice are countless Uighurs missing, their family members lucky enough to be abroad calling attention to their cases and even starting a Twitter campaign, #StillNoInfo, as they search for those still missing.

It also means well-educated Uighurs being forced to trade in their white-collar jobs for work in factories that leave them dependent on the Chinese state for their income.

What sets collectivization of the Uighurs apart from previous periods of collectivization, both inChina, but also in other parts of the world, is the rapid pace in which it took place.

The speed at which such a large population of people could be uprooted from their homes and extrajudicially interned was made possible principally through surveillance technologytechnology that, according to Human Rights Watch, deems it suspicious to exit out the back door rather than the front door of your home, and sees attendance at mosque as grounds for interrogation or internment.

Normal human behavior, to live ones life according to ones closely-held beliefs, is seen as threatening the Chinese Communist Party, to whom the state supersedes all other allegiances.

In the face of such atrocities, it is easy for individuals and governments to feel paralyzed. After all, how does one respond to such distortions of human existence like the Holocaust, genocide in Rwanda, Darfur or Burma, or the gulags of the Soviet Union?

The Americans and the Holocaust exhibit really was a charge to all Americans.

To the American peoplewho among you will call on your elected leaders to respond? Who will be a good neighbor? Even to your neighbor across the Pacific.

Will you be there for them in their time of need?

To the studentswho will organize student groups and events to raise awareness?

To civil societyWho will write the articles and document the evidence for future justice? Who will hold prayer meetings? Who will support local Uighurs recently resettled in the United States as they mourn lost family members or try to find those still missing?

To the U.S. governmentwho will be the nextHenry Morgenthau?

The American people have a beautiful penchant for loving and caringa philanthropic spirit, as it is often described. This is because U.S. leaders such as Ronald Reagan called us to our better selvesto be that shining city on a hillin whatever form that looks like in the present.

Persecution of the Uighurs demands a strong U.S. response, but as illustrated in the case of the Holocaust, it took pressure from the American people, from civil society, and leaders in the U.S. government to be willing to lead and do what it is possible for the United States to do to serve those in need in the face of such earth-shattering atrocities.

Doing what is possible means advancing freedom and values in Asia.

Doing what is possible means sanctioning Chen Quanguo.

Doing what is possible may involve granting priority refugee resettlement status to Uighurs.

In the face of such severe human rights violations, the United States should not miss this opportunity to demonstrate its commitment to freedom wherever it is challenged. Today, its inChina.

Originally published in The Washington Times

Originally posted here:
China's Repression of the Uighurs Merits a Strong Human Rights Response - Daily Signal

Human Behavior

CT in 2020 and Beyond – Twice

Steve Koenig, VP, research, CTA, and Lesley Rohrbaugh, director of research, CTA, presented a session titled 2020 Tech Trends to Watch at CES 2020.

TWICE CES 1 day ago

By Anthony Savona

On Sunday afternoon, Steve Koenig, VP, research, CTA, and Lesley Rohrbaugh, director of research, CTA, presented a session titled 2020 Tech Trends to Watch to a room packed full of mediaall of whom were anxious to get a preview of what was to come on todays show floor opening and where the CT industry is going in the new decade.

Koenig began by giving a new interpretation of IoT, or Internet of Things. In 2020, he says IoT will become Intelligence of Things. The reason for the evolution is that AI now permeates every facet of commerce and culture. Culture is really interesting, said Koenig, because we are taking about technologys influence on human behavior.

As an example of AI permeating the culture, Koenig spoke about the McDonalds drive-thru. The drive-thru operator has a lot to managegetting the order right, completing the transaction, and fulfilling the order. All to a customer that, by the nature of the drive-thru, is in a hurry. Adding intelligence at the first step of taking the order frees up the human to provide better service.

Naturally, 5G continues to be a trend to watch, with 5G handset shipments rolling out in 2020. By 2022, the market is expected to flip, with two-thirds of users making the switch from 4G to 5G.

But handsets are just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to 5G. Look for enterprise and agricultural uses of 5G throughout the show floor. The speed of the network opens the doors to many opportunities, including remote health care, traffic safety, irrigation, and providing a solution to the problem of food scarcity.

5G will bring in tremendous amounts of data, and AI and machine learning will help us understand it all, taking large amounts of data and analyzing it in real time.

2020 will also see the fulfillment of the promise of smart home techwhere the home takes care of the occupant, and not the other way around.

Other trends include a facelift for experiential reality (XR) innovation, which now provides a 360-degree experience with visuals and audio. The form factors have also changed, with sleeker glasses, and more use cases emerging. AR and VR influences in B2B include workforce training, architects using AR glasses to design a room in real time, and new travel and tourism innovations using AR/VR.

Among the uses for AR/VR is gaming, which will have a big presence at CES. Esports and cloud gaming have all come on strong in 2019, and show no signs of stopping with Apple, Microsoft, and Google launching their own cloud-gaming platforms.

Rounding out the trends are evolutions in transportation, digital health, robotics, and resilient tech, which helps communities recover from disasters.

For more CES 2020 news and stories, visittwice.com/tag/ces-2020.

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CT in 2020 and Beyond - Twice

Human Behavior

Gadgets of the future unveiled at annual tech show – ABC News

Intelligent toilets, virtual comfort animals and lots of robots will be unveiled in Las Vegas this week for the Consumer Electronics Show, the annual tech industry extravaganza that brings over 4,000 companies together for a week of sharing their latest innovations with the world.

The next generation of mobile technology, 5G, is expected to be a major theme at this year's show, promising lighting-fast speeds.

One of the touted capabilities of 5G is that you can download the entire "Game of Thrones" series in just minutes.

"5G is the fifth wireless generation but it will be the first that will be led by the enterprise; it will touch every economic sector," Steve Koenig, the vice president of research at Consumer Technology Association, which runs CES, told ABC News. "5G will be a major narrative at the show."

Visitors look at the CES innovation awards laureates at CES, the 2020 International Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, Jan. 5, 2020. The annual CES which takes place from 7-10 January is a place where industry manufacturers, advertisers and tech-minded consumers converge to get a taste of new innovations coming to the market each year.

Koenig emphasized 5G is much more than just about cellphones. Many companies and industries are figuring out how to use the technology in everything from smart home devices to cars to much more.

"For example, Ford Motor Company announced at CES 2019, that by 2022 Ford cars will support 5G," Koenig said.

How companies will implement 5G in nearly every device is something everyone has their eyes on.

The "Internet of Things" -- connecting everyday devices online -- has been a key theme for the past few years at CES, but this year it will be all about artificial intelligence's influence on IoT.

"Thinking about the last decade was mostly about connectivity. We describe that with the term IoT. Starting now we are confronted with an entirely new IoT," Koenig said. "This decade is about intelligence."

What to expect at CES 2020

"This new IoT, the intelligence of things, bears testimony to the fact that artificial intelligence is touching every part of our commerce and our culture," he added.

While AI in various forms is already popping up in people's daily lives, Koenig added that it will be interesting to see how AI will "start to shift human behavior in the next decade."

"5G and AI are key ingredient technologies that will underpin pretty much everything we are doing in the next decade," Koenig added. "Those are two major themes that will overlay the entire show."

While the focus in the past has been on big, new TV's or drones, this year is all about smart health tech, a major sector in this year's show that is already generating buzz.

"Because health is important to everyone ... the innovations thereof will probably touch most of us," Koenig said.

"Were starting to see innovation in the consumer tech space push beyond wearables. 2020 is when digital health becomes a lifestyle," he added.

New innovations in the digital health care space will be on exhibit -- from AI-assisted technologies to help diagnose diseases to highly-advanced fitness trackers and wearable health gadgets.

Smart diapers and Amazon Alexa-enabled bicycle helmets are just some of the digital health devices already making waves at the show. Another, is Xenoma's smart pajamas designed for the elderly which monitor all users' vital signs as they sleep and send an alert if something is wrong.

Xenoma smart pajamas, designed for the elderly, on display at CES 2020, in Las Vegas, Jan. 5, 2020.

CES has famously become an auto show of sorts in addition to a tech show over the years, and "this year is no exception," Koenig told ABC News.

Some of the themes to look out for within the car space at CES are electrification, micromobility and self-driving cars.

"CES 2020 will feature a lot of electric vehicles, a lot of announcements from some pretty big companies in the space," Koenig said. "CES 2020 will set the tone for the electric decade as it pertains to vehicles."

Micromobility is another exciting theme this year, as companies focus on smaller vehicles to help with globalization and traffic.

"We need things like scooters and electric bikes because our cities are becoming more dense," Koenig said.

Self-driving cars have been a theme in vehicle tech for the past few years at the show, and this year the latest developments in that space will be on display.

One of the fan-favorite parts of CES is all the unexpected gadgets that pop up every year that we didn't know we needed: whether it's a robot that can fold your clothes or a virtual comfort animal.

"There are always, always those unexpected surprises, some new use-case of a technology that we didn't think about before," Koenig said, adding that we can expect a lot of those this year.

A Numi intelligent toilet and and Moxie shower head with wireless speaker and built-in voice assistant is displayed in the Kohler booth at CES in Las Vegas, Jan. 5, 2020.

"A lot of these exhibitors keep those cards very close to the deck, what I can guarantee is that there will be many of them," Koenig said. "I would sharpen that statement a little bit by saying really look at the startups."

Qoobo, a virtual comfort animal, is already gaining attention and love online. The cushion with a tail that wags based on how you pet it could work for someone who can't be around pets or may not be allowed to have them in their apartment. Unfortunately, even the virtual animal, however, reportedly sheds.

Representatives from Yukai Engineering display Qoobo, a therapeutic robot in the form of a cushion and a tail during a press event for CES 2020 at the Mandalay Bay Convention Center on Jan. 5, 2020 in Las Vegas.

"The idea here is that as we move forward in this decade, things that today seem like science fiction to us will become reality, and thats what's really exciting about CES 2020," said Koenig.

"Well experience technologies, well hear about expected implementations of technologies," he added. "CES is the worlds largest and most influential tech event on the planet, as a result, it really transcends the traditional tech industry."

"All of these companies are really going to be showcasing the next level of innovation, across pretty much every economic sector," Koenig added, noting the variety ranges from healthcare companies like Cigna to farming equipment makers like John Deere.

Whether you are a tech nerd or not, CES is worth tuning in to if you are interested in ways to "work smarter, not harder," Koenig added.

"Consumer tech touches pretty much every aspect of our daily lives, whether we are at home or at work or on the go," he added. "A lot of people are interested in ways to work smarter, not harder. They are interested in technology innovation that delivers more comfort and convenience."

ABC News' Alex Stone contributed to this report.

Link:
Gadgets of the future unveiled at annual tech show - ABC News

Human Behavior

Is Red Wine Good for the Body? – News-Medical.net

There is a plethora of research and guidance which discuss the health consequences of consuming alcohol. In the United Kingdom, it is recommended that both men and women do not frequently consume more than 14 units of alcohol per week.

Image Credit: jazz3311 / Shutterstock.com

This is roughly equivalent to drinking ten small glasses of wine or six pints of beer. However, it is also suggested that there is no safe amount of alcohol that can be drunk without potentially causing health issues such as liver cirrhosis, coronary heart disease, cancer, and stroke.

Despite these recommendations, a recent study has questioned whether red wine consumed in moderation may still provide some health benefits.

Recent research published in the journal Gastroenterology suggests that a daily glass of red wine may provide health benefits for the human gut microbiome. The microbiome is a term used to describe the group of genomes of micro-organisms that reside in the human gut. The microbes of the gut are considered to play a vital role in metabolic and immune systems as well as in systems that regulate human behavior.

Researchers from the Department of Twin Research Genetic Epidemiology at Kings College London and the VIB Centre for Microbiology KU Leuven Laboratory of Molecular Bacteriology at the Rega Institute for Medical Research in Belgium worked in collaboration on the project.

The research involved the collection of dietary, food, and drink habits from a large population sample across the United Kingdom, the United States, and Belgium in three ongoing studies. Specifically, twin study data was collected from the UK, and subsequent data from the US and Belgium was derived from the American Gut Project and Flemish Gut Project, respectively.

The researchers found that drinking red wine, even in instances where other types of alcohol were consumed, is linked to a healthy pattern of gut microbe. Furthermore, by analyzing twin study data, they found that in individuals that consumed a higher quantity of red wine compared to their twin had a healthy gut. This reduces the probability that, in this instance, health gut microbes were caused by familial genetic traits.

The researchers also compared the effects of drinking other types of alcohol on gut health. It was found that those who consumed beers, spirits, or white wine did not demonstrate the same healthy gut microbiome.

Other findings relate to the broader health effects of drinking red wine. Twin study data found that individuals that drank a higher quantity of red wine compared to their twin had a reduced risk of developing low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and obesity. It is believed that this is caused by polyphenols present in red wine.

The researchers of the study argued that the health wider health benefits of drinking red wine might be down to polyphenols present in the alcohol. This notion aligns well with previous research that suggests that moderate and regular consumption of red wine may play a role in preventing cancer and cardiovascular disease.

Polyphenols are present in a range of food products, including seeds and nuts, and some fruit and vegetables such as grapes. Grapes, in particular, are considered to have a large number of polyphenols in their skin. In wine, specifically, they are typically greater amounts found in red wine compared to white wine.

Researchers suggest that polyphenols are also present in grape-based non-alcoholic drinks, but in lower content. Furthermore, red wine is considered to host resveratrol - an antioxidant that has been found to improve the composition of the guts microbiome which has also been found to reduce the likelihood of developing cancer and heart disease.

This study is considered to be the largest of its kind to investigate and conclude that moderate consumption of red wine provides gut microbiome health benefits as well as having protective effects against serious health conditions. From this, insight has been gained into the health benefits of polyphenols.

However, there are limitations to the study. As a purely observational study, causality cannot be established. Therefore, to determine that the effects were indeed caused solely by red wine, more controlled research is needed.

Furthermore, the study presents potential conflict against longstanding advice regarding the health implications of consuming alcohol in any quantity. However, researchers from this study suggest that if individuals wish to drink any alcohol, then based on this research, a small glass of red might may be the best option due to the proposed health benefits.

NHS (2019). Alcohol support: The risks of drinking too much. http://www.nhs.uk/live-well/alcohol-support/the-risks-of-drinking-too-much/

Dinan, T. G., Stilling, R. M., Stanton, C., & Cryan, J. F. (2015). Collective unconscious: How gut microbes shape human behavior. Journal of Psychiatric Research. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpsychires.2015.02.021

Valdes, A. M., Walter, J., Segal, E., & Spector, T. D. (2018). Role of the gut microbiota in nutrition and health. Science and Politics of Nutrition. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.k2179

Cordova, A. C. & Sumpio, B. E. (2009). Polyphenols are medicine: Is it time to prescribe red wine for our patients? International Journal of Angiology. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2903024/

Le Roy, C. I., Wells, P. M., SI, J., Raes, J., Bell, J. T., & Spector, T. D. (2019). Red Wine Consumption Associated with Increased Gut Microbiota -diversity in 3 Independent Cohorts. Gastroenterology. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1053/j.gastro.2019.08.024

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Is Red Wine Good for the Body? - News-Medical.net

Human Behavior

How to Set Good Habits and Actually Keep Them This Year – Fatherly

A new exercise regime. A hardcore diet. A vow to never, ever smoke another cigarette. A draconian organizational system for ones home. These are common New Years resolutions made and, inevitably, given up on within a few weeks, if not months, into the New Year. At least thats what Dr. BJ Fogg, a social science research associate at Stanford and author found in his own work studying how people can create real, sustainable, and healthy, and good habits, and shed bad habits in the past.

When Dr. Fogg received his doctorate in experimental psychology, he was largely focused on how people can use tech to better their lives. But at some point he felt he had contributed all he could to tech and that human behavior good, bad, healthy, or unhealthy would be his next mountain to tackle. During his research, he came across a surprising discovery: the smallest, tiniest habits are the ones that can radically change a persons life. It was only when people set extremely lofty goals like running a marathon at the end of the year or completely changing how they parent their children that they failed and dug themselves deeper into a de-motivation hole that made it even harder to enact positive changes in their own lives.

So, to help Dr. Fogg started a program called Tiny Habits and has coached some 60,000 people through changing their habits through smart, small change. His new book, Tiny Habits: The Small Changes That Change Everything distills his finding and methodology into genuinely useful guide for those who want to change.

Fatherly spoke to Dr. Fogg about how to really, actually set a new habit that will stick beyond the fading resolve of the New Years Resolution as well as the most common habits he sees parents wanting and needing to change.

How cooperative is your child in getting ready in the morning?

They pretty much do what I ask them

Sometimes they listen, sometimes it's like pulling teeth

They are a wild animal bent upon my destruction

Thanks for the feedback!

So what does it take to really hone a new habit?

There are three components that comprise every behavior: motivation, ability, and prompt. When those things come together, something amazing happens, and if youre missing one, it doesnt. And its really that simple.

With that model, then, at least the graphical version in the book with the curved lines, you can see theres a relationship between motivation and ability. So if something is really hard to do, you have to have high motivation for it to happen, and when motivation drops, you wont. On the flip side, if its really easy to do, your motivation will be low. That intrigued me. I looked at the drawing of my own model and realized that means that if I want to create a new habit and I make it really, really simple, then my swings in motivation wont derail [my habit formation.]

Okay.

I started doing it in my own life. I decided Id floss one tooth, not all my teeth. I said Id pour a glass of water, not drink a glass of water. By going radically tiny, it was like, great. I can be busy or stressed out or not wanting to do it very much and I can still floss one tooth. I can still pour one glass of water. I can still do two push ups.

So just say I want to read more books in 2020. What do I do?

Take whatever habit you want and make it radically tiny. Scale it back: set the intention to read a paragraph, not a chapter. If its not flossing all my teeth, its one tooth. Its not pay all my bills, its get my bills out and put them on the table. And so, in tiny habits, you just scale it back to make it so easy. So then its not at all a willpower or motivation issue.

Then you ask, whats going to remind me to do this? What routine do you already do that you can anchor the new habit to? For reading, it can come after I sit down on the bus. Thats when I open my book and read a paragraph. Neither one of those things is about motivation.

And then the feeling of success. Its really those three things together the anchor; making the behavior tiny; and the celebration. All of those are hacks, unconventionally. When I figured out over time was that if you bring those three hacks together, you can create habits really fast. It just feels different than if you have the right pieces put together.

Is the idea that by telling myself Im just going to read one paragraph, or floss one tooth, that it will be really easy for me to go above and beyond that set goal?

It can go either way. You can do more if you want. Extra-credit would be flossing all my teeth. But, even years later, you dont raise the bar on yourself. The habit is still just one tooth. I actually floss all my teeth twice a day. I used to not floss, Id go to the dentist, Id get chewed out. But even now, if Im in a massive hurry, I will still grab the floss, floss one tooth and say, Yeah. I got it done. And run out to the car.

So what you dont do is continue to raise the bar, like, I did two push ups. Now I have to do 5. You can do more, but its not a requirement. The habit is always tiny. You keep it at a level where you can always succeed. And when you do more, and you will do more, naturally, you think of that as extra credit. Youre the kind of person who goes above and beyond. That has really good effects on you.

And then if you dont, you did what you said you were going to do.

Really. Let me build on that. When you say, Man, I did what I said I was going to do and I overachieved, then you start seeing yourself as the person who does what they said they were going to do. That ripples out to other aspects of your life. Theres an identity shift that happens from succeeding on tiny things and that identity shift has a massive impact.

So what do you think about the word goals? I havent heard you say it yet in this interview. Like, My goal is to be neater.

Goal setting scares people and it makes them feel unsuccessful. So instead of using the word goal, I talk about aspirations and outcomes.

The word goal, I think, is tainted, but you could have people set a goal without using that word. Sitting down with your spouse and agreeing on an outcome that you want is essentially setting a goal. But its not bringing it all the baggage that people have around it.

Im a bigger fan of just aspirations: I want to eat better. What are the behaviors I can do that will help me eat better? So its not really a specific goal its just a general dream, wish, or hope, and then you come up with behaviors like, Ill pack a lunch every day. Ill eat blueberries for breakfast.

So, getting clear on what you want is really important. But I dont think that you have to call it a goal, or fall into the trap of setting this really high goal for yourself and then failing. Thats what I want people to avoid.

Right. And I feel like this approach to new habits is actually workable for parents who cant really meaningfully overhaul their whole life, or set a hard goal that would get totally derailed by the complications of life.

Its complicated.

Right. Clean-eating for 30 days is unworkable. But having one more serving of vegetables a day seems pretty doable.

I did a bunch of interviews with nurses and stressed out hospital workers and the big takeaway for me was that they were so stressed, and so tapped out, that tiny habits was the only way they could change. They could not do big things. The crazier your life, the more tapped out you are, the more tiny habits are appropriate for you. So, for parents, this tracks really closely. They cant do the big overhauls like you see on TV. They watch it, but they cant do it. And thats bad because it just sets them up to feel terrible. The other stuff, you may see good commercials and tv shows and emails about the other stuff but its not going to happen for you, realistically.

You have done a lot of work, including long-term workshops, with people who would love to commit to new habits and potentially change their lives. What are a few things that you commonly see parents dealing with, that they want to change?

I assumed it was all going to be about weight loss, but what did emerge for parents is that the number one concern in one of the studies was about financial security. In another one, parents responded I want to prepare my child for the real world.

I dont even know how we came up with that phrase! but we tested it against other things like, I want to reduce stress, or advance my career. For parents, that aspiration of preparing their kid for the real world that was number one.

Were there other things that concerned parents?

Tidiness around the home is a big issue. There are these tiny habits for tininess they can do, like, after I start the coffee maker I will put away one thing in the kitchen. Just one thing. And if you want to do more, great. But you dont have to. And guess what? Often, they do more.

There are habits around putting away technology and really engaging with your child. So, after I arrive home from work, I will charge my phone out of sight in the mud room or the entryway and Ill leave it there. So, you just leave it and dont charge it.

There are also mantras. After my child frustrates me, I will say to myself, My son is doing the best he can. Nobody tries to screw up. So just the internal mantra, to have some empathy. Theres a host of those. In the appendix of tiny habits, I pulled together, with input from some experts, some tiny habits for dads who work from home.

Okay. So theres a big difference between maintaining a neat home or leaving a phone by the front door and, you know, financial stability. How, in your view, can financial stability be achieved through tiny habits?

First and foremost, families need an emergency fund between 300 and 500 dollars. You need a rainy day fund for emergencies that you do not touch unless its truly an emergency.

There are a bunch of different ways to get there.

It could be that: every day when we come home from work, well put our change in this jar. Every time a friend wants to go get a coffee, for three months, well say, Im not doing Starbucks right now, but thanks for the invitation. And then we take that money and we put it in an emergency fund.

Right. You cant latte your way to being able to afford a house. But you can have a better cushion if an emergency happens.

Right. But you can do that to achieve a near-term outcome; of 300 to 500 dollars, for sure.

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How to Set Good Habits and Actually Keep Them This Year - Fatherly

Human Behavior

Small Steps Are Key to Making Resolutions Stick – AAFP News

Editor's note: Most New Year's resolutions fail before February. We asked our new physician bloggers how they help patients make lifestyle changes that last. Here's what they had to say.

I was born on New Year's Eve, so I am all too familiar with the flurry of well-intended resolutions and the sense of positive potential that accompany each new year. I am also keenly aware of the reluctant acceptance that gradually comes during the following months as we negotiate with ourselves and settle on lesser goals or give up on them entirely, at least until next year.

The age-old challenge that most of us face has to do with self-discipline, whether it pertains to diet, exercise or a perceived vice such as smoking, drinking, excessive screen time or a chocolate obsession, just to name a familiar few. It doesn't help that the major holidays that lead up to the new year are often accompanied by indulgence in the things that eventually leave us looking disapprovingly in the mirror at a flabbier, weaker version of ourselves. This is followed by a newfound resolve to make a change for the better that will finally stick. We are determined to regain our 21-year-old body, imbue it with the soul of a monk, and attach to its chiseled torso the head of someone who possesses an iron will and better decision-making abilities.

Therein lies the problem. We expect radical change from ourselves, when what we really need is the foresight and ability to play the long game of gradual evolution. Based on my own experience, I encourage my patients to integrate small changes into their lifestyles that fit well with their personalities and routines. For instance, I discovered I had lactose intolerance about 15 years ago, but it wasn't until just a few years ago that I seriously committed to a 30-day elimination diet and discovered just how positively life-changing strict elimination of lactose from my diet could be. Within a few days of eating nonprocessed, dairy-free foods, my gastrointestinal issues greatly improved. Next was the elimination of wheat products, which brought about an even bigger surprise as my heartburn went away, along with fatigue, brain fog, body aches, headaches and skin issues. I also reached my goal weight after only six weeks of strict dieting. Five years later, I continue to eat a modified version of this diet because it made a difference, and I feel better.

Finally, I have found that when it comes to working out, the key is to keep exercise equipment in places where it is easily accessible and convenient to use. For instance, I keep my free weights and exercise bands upstairs where I have quick access to them before settling down for the night, but my exercise bike and total gym are downstairs in our TV room where I can use them while watching a show. I have also started bringing exercise bands with me when I travel.

There are smaller but more consistently beneficial changes one can make, like increasing time spent walking the dog or jogging instead of walking. Engaging in outdoor work or recreation instead of staying cooped up in the house is always a win and could easily jumpstart a new lifestyle change. The key is to employ many small and achievable changes that you can shuffle to avoid getting bored or overwhelmed. In doing so, you just may wake up some New Year's Day and look in the mirror with an approving grin on your face.

Kurt Bravata, M.D., Buffalo, Mo.

The best and most difficult medicine is changing your life. I wish we could bottle a healthy diet or turn exercise into a pill, but there is no substitute for changing your life if your goal is to, well, change your life. This starts with considering a few questions.

First, what changes are we talking about, exactly? Here's a list.

Second, why should we care enough about these suggestions to make big changes related to them? Well, there is enough data behind them to merit a separate blog post, but I can sum it up in one sentence: If you want to be in your own home instead of a nursing home when you're 80, you should do these things now as a favor to your future self.

Third, how do we make these changes stick? This is the hard part. Taking pill takes a commitment of 10 seconds each day. It's easy to remember and easy to stop thinking about after you've done it. Changing your life requires attention all day long, every day. We all hate the side effects of medications. This is the side effect of lifestyle change -- you have to pay attention, and it's not easy. You won't get a rash and you won't get diarrhea. You will, in fact, feel better every day that you do it, but give yourself credit for doing something hard.

A primary care doctor can help patients with things such as smoking cessation, insomnia, poor nutrition and alcohol misuse, but we cannot follow patients home and cook for them, so the challenge for patients is one of endurance.

If changing a life is a marathon, not a sprint, let's treat it like one. Start slow.

If you want to eat healthier, start with lunches. Or snacks. Or no meat with breakfast. If you want to exercise five days a week, start with one. Start with a 10-minute exercise video at home. Start with chair yoga.

Slowly progress. You don't need to change everything in one day, but you should stick with the changes you make.

Make something habitual. Start meatless Mondays. Start Tuesday walk clubs. Put it in your schedule not just for this week, but for every week, same time, same place.

If you fail, try again. If you are successful 10% of the time, your 80-year-old self will be that much better off, so it's worth trying again and again and again.

Stewart Decker, M.D., Klamath Falls, Ore.

New Year's comes with a hope for change and a renewed effort to make better choices. Better known as New Year's resolutions, people often commit themselves to making these big, bold and sweeping lifestyle changes.

However, on average, people stick with said resolutions for less than two weeks.(nypost.com) As a family physician who is a strong proponent of using lifestyle medicine to promote and maintain health, one of my largest tasks is helping people make changes that last.

Unfortunately, evidence shows us that big and bold is not the way to make lasting lifestyle changes. I have seen many patients try to run marathons without much previous physical activity. They start training too hard with too much intensity, end up injured and then give up altogether. Whether it's quitting smoking, drinking less caffeine, becoming more physically active or implementing a plant-based diet, research has shown us that small, consistent and incremental changes(www.apa.org) are much more likely to result in sustained transformation.

I recommend my patients make a plan; set small, attainable and realistic goals; and only make one change at a time. For example, drink one less soda each day for two weeks and then increase the goal to two fewer sodas daily for two more weeks. When that goal is reached, start walking five minutes after dinner twice a week and continue to make one small change at a time.

Lastly, and perhaps most importantly, ask for support and involve a friend or family member. If you are trying to eat more veggies and no one else in your household is trying to do the same, it can be a lot harder. I have found this is also true for patients trying to stop smoking alone compared with those who try it with support. Similarly, if you are meeting a friend for a walk at lunchtime, you are much less likely to skip it. Letting others know about your goals and having them check in on you can help make you more accountable for your actions.

Alex Mroszczyk-McDonald, M.D., Fontana, Calif.

Human behavior is hard to change. Yet we're realizing that many of our behaviors are unhealthy, and research has shown that true lifestyle modifications can positively impact both disease prevention and progression. Guidelines recommend(www.uspreventiveservicestaskforce.org) we discuss these modifications with our patients, but we have all likely struggled to find ways to prescribe them during our limited visit time in a way that will realistically help our patients make lasting, healthy changes.

I have spent the past year trying to fine-tune how I speak with patients about establishing habits that stick. I tell them to think of "small but sustainable" changes, to create SMART (Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Relevant and Time-focused) goals, and to associate new habits with simple rituals that they're already doing every day. For example, I tell them to pick a small goal that they know they can meet. If they want to walk more or eat more vegetables, I suggest a specific goal like walking for five minutes three times a week or adding five baby carrots to their snack twice a week. No goal is too small, but make sure it is measurable.

If your neighborhood doesn't feel safe to walk in or you're not the one doing the grocery shopping, pick a different goal. Make it relevant to your overall health goals. And commit to this goal for a set period of time. (I often recommend four weeks, and we schedule a follow-up visit.)

Finally, I offer tips to help patients associate their goals with something they're already doing. Want to drink more water? Put a big glass by your bed and when your feet touch the floor in the morning, drink it. Want to work out to that online exercise video? Put some workout gear right where you place your keys when you get home and immediately put it on.

In addition to the growing body of evidence that these methods work, I have found them to be true for me, which gives them credibility and enables me to speak from experience. Thus, going into another year, I encourage patients and my colleagues to make small New Year's resolutions that can be reasonably accomplished.

With time, you can add to these successes. And hopefully, by this time next year, you'll find that you've made some big changes and are feeling like the healthier you you've envisioned. Happy New Year!

Margaux Lazarin, D.O., M.P.H., Redwood City, Calif.

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Small Steps Are Key to Making Resolutions Stick - AAFP News

Human Behavior

Here are the 8 tech trends you’ll see this year (and decade) – KSL.com

LAS VEGAS Weve witnessed a technological revolution over the last few decades.

The smartphone has fundamentally changed the way we live and the way our brains function. What will this next decade bring? Self-driving cars? Incredibly fast internet? One streaming service to rule them all?

Were talking about technologys influence on human behavior, Consumer Technology Association vice president of research, Steve Koenig, said during a presentation on coming tech trends at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas Sunday.

Here are the eight tech trends youll see this year, and likely throughout the upcoming decade.

The last decade was all about IoT, or the internet of things essentially, everyday devices that connect to the internet. This decade, however, will be focused on the intelligence of things as our devices continue becoming smarter via artificial intelligence.

And we wont even have to use a different acronym.

This trend will usher in enhanced machine learning as AI learns to take larger data sets and analyze them in real time. Well also see AI appear in our smart home devices and televisions as they learn to anticipate our habits, recognize objects and respond to them much like your streaming service of choice knows your favorite shows and suggests similar ones.

Well also see AI advance speech and facial recognition technology, including biometrics, that will likely play a significant (and possibly controversial) role in security. Even McDonald's is jumping into the space: A new research and development lab in Silicon Valley is working to bring voice assistants to the drive-through.

In 2019, mobile networks across the globe deployed 5G the fifth generation of wireless technology, purported to bring superfast speeds that will change the world. But 5G hasnt changed things quite as quickly as promised. In fact, the most widespread versions of 5G arent much better than 4G.

But that probably wont last for too long. Industry analysts predict that 133 million 5G handset units will be shipped out by 2023 (compared to 2020s 20.2 million), and innovators at CES are scrambling to show how their tech will exhibit 5Gs potential.

As 5G develops, it could make tasks like remote manufacturing, training, health care and even surgery possible. It could also enhance traffic safety and control, smart grid automation and industrial application.

Perhaps one of the most surprising industries 5G is set to disrupt, however, is agriculture. The technology could make possible automated farming equipment and allow squadrons of drones to fly over fields while using sensors to look for things like plant disease or areas that need more water.

Companies like Disney and Apple launched their own media streaming services last year, and well see even more in 2020, like NBCUniversals Peacock or Quibi (a mobile subscription service for short-form video). In fact, our streaming subscriptions might end up being as hefty as our cable bills were, and well be back where we started.

But at least well enjoy what were paying for in cinematic style, because our TVs are likely to get larger as time goes on. Well also see an advancement in 4K and 8K TVs and content.

Augmented, virtual and mixed reality (or XR) will advance as industries find uses for them. Theyre already popular in workplace and healthcare training, as well as industries like architecture, which benefits from being able to virtually show building plans.

The norm for VR is something called six degrees of freedom, meaning users can have a 360 glimpse into the virtual world rather than a simple look up, down and to the side. AR is being implemented into a variety of different products and content, and AR glasses are becoming much sleeker and more user-friendly.

Esports garnered $1 billion in revenue in 2019, and thats only likely to continue in 2020 and the decade to come. Manufacturers have also started creating more immersive gaming, such as better graphics cards and special gaming microphones and headsets that give users an immersive audio experience.

Were also seeing a rise in cloud-based gaming, with companies like Apple, Google and Microsoft launching their own cloud-based gaming platforms.

Were finally at that inflection point where electrification (of vehicles) makes a lot of sense, Koenig said. In fact, I think this is the electric decade for vehicles.

The automotive industry has been going in that direction for a while, but innovation in battery systems, faster charging, longer charges, electric motor innovation and better (and more) charging systems are finally making electric vehicles truly feasible and sensible for consumers.

Well also see more commercial deployments of self-driving vehicles, Koenig believes. Technological innovation in the space has made driverless cars not just a dream of the future, but an achievable reality.

Transportation is also likely to change with C-V2X technology, which stands for cellular vehicle to everything. C-V2X takes anonymous data from connected car fleets so cities and towns can have a better understanding of where infrastructure repairs are needed or which areas become most congested. In fact, well be seeing, and have already partially seen, something similar in Utah.

Finally, well see more innovations in other mobility devices like scooters. So, dont expect those to go away anytime soon.

Health, wellness, fitness and sleep tech is not new, but it is changing. Sleep technology, for example, will no longer just track sleep but is working to enhance it via biometrics by tracking and analyzing how your body acts during the night.

Baby tech is also huge, and well see a lot of smart cribs that claim to help babies sleep through the night by sensing their stirring and rocking them back to sleep.

Telemedicine is also likely to advance rapidly thanks to technologies that allow doctors to diagnose their patients, and even perform surgery, remotely.

There are robots for nearly every task from making bread to folding your laundry. Social and educational robots are also becoming increasingly popular as they act as companions, caretakers and teachers for their owners. Some robots are teaching children coding or foreign languages, tailored to their individual learning style and pace.

Well likely see robots continue to advance as we find more real-world uses for them.

I must have this #CES2019#foldimatepic.twitter.com/7488hDKyMv

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Here are the 8 tech trends you'll see this year (and decade) - KSL.com

Human Behavior

Researchers Into ‘Deepfakes’ Highlight Failings of New California Legislation – East Bay Express

When a video depicting real people doing or saying things they never did or said goes viral, the consequences can be disastrous. Such malign scenes can destroy reputations, place elections in peril, put national or international security at risk, and threaten the very concept of truth.

Deceptive visual and audio media manipulated with artificial intelligence have long proliferated in online pornography, and are increasingly seen in political commentary or advertising. The Amsterdam cybersecurity company Deeptrace found that, during seven months in 2019, such so-called "deepfakes" increased 84 percent. Reddit holds the dubious honor of being the first known site for deepfakes, but YouTube, Facebook, Twitter and other social media platforms are not far behind.

Even "cheapfakes" that don't use artificial intelligence can be harmful. Consider the May 2019 video that slowed the speech of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. The simple, low-tech distortion made Pelosi appear inebriated or otherwise impaired. Despite rapid detection of the doctored video, the damage was done.

As November's U.S. presidential election approaches, making social media platforms more accountable for how their online content can be used to mislead the public has become a critical issue. In California, last year Gov. Gavin Newsom signed into law AB 730, known as the "Anti-Deepfake Bill." Aimed at stemming the tide of deepfakes featuring politicians, the new law is viewed as admirable but imperfect by people concerned about the issue.

The law, which is only in effect until the end of 2022, prohibits the distribution with actual malice of "materially deceptive audio or video media" involving a candidate for public office in the 60 days prior to an election. The law permits candidates to go to court to suppress such media and sue for damages, and exempts content that "constitutes satire or parody," as well as news organizations that broadcast such materials if they acknowledge questions about the material's authenticity.

Observers say the law's flaws include its expiration date, the 60-day window of applicability, the provision allowing deepfakes to remain active until malice is proven, and inadequate enforcement procedures to correct debunked video or audio content and to alert the public regarding deepfakes already posted or gone viral. Most notably, it exempts online platforms from responsibility due to Section 230 of the federal Communications Decency Act, which prevents such platforms from being sued for allowing users to post content. This final limitation could only be corrected by Congress.

Fortunately, the situation has attracted the attention of smart people dedicated to promoting the ethical use of new technologies. Among those leading the charge are Brandie Nonnecke and Camille Crittenden of UC Berkeley's CITRIS and Banatao Institute. CITRIS and the Banatao Institute merged under one name in 2016 and have for 20 years enabled leading researchers at UC Berkeley, UC Davis, UC Merced, and UC Santa Cruz to address information technology development and applications for the public good.

"My concern is that people may be hesitant to believe anything they see," said Nonnecke, CITRIS Policy Lab co-founder; a fellow at the World Economic Forum; and an expert in communication technology, Internet governance, and civic participation. "That's good because they're careful, but bad because they may lose the perception that something is true by jumping too quickly to thinking everything is a lie." Furthermore, she added, hesitancy and disbelief can be exacerbated by actors yelling "deepfake" about any video ... and then there's no drive-back-the-lie vehicle for detecting and broadcasting truth.

"Who would you then trust?" she said. "Who can determine if it's true or not? The platforms aren't positioned to do that. Most often now it's a lawsuit or a third party verifying a video. But can we trust them? The biggest danger is a video that's actually true, showing a politician doing something illegal, and now no one thinks it's true. The truth won't come out."

Crittenden, the executive director of CITRIS, a co-founder of the Policy Lab, and former executive director of the Human Rights Center at Berkeley Law, said that by casting doubt on authentic media content, deepfakes threaten democracy. Quick to acknowledge that social media platforms have placed restrictions around sex trafficking and actively support developing tools to detect manipulated media, she nonetheless said it's not enough.

"With Facebook, they've said they're not taking political ads down," she said. "Twitter has said they will not accept political advertising. But if they won't curb or flag blatantly false information, perhaps they shouldn't be in the business of political advertising at all."

Just Monday, after Crittenden was interviewed, Facebook announced that it is banning deepfakes from its platform. But its ban fell short of including clips edited to change the order of a speaker's words, or parody or satire, two categories of content protected by the First Amendment. The policy also appeared not to cover content such as the Pelosi video. A spokesman for Pelosi released a statement to The Washington Post that the company "wants you to think the problem is video-editing technology, but the real problem is Facebook's refusal to stop the spread of disinformation."

Content such as the Pelosi video, and another infamous one in which CNN White House correspondent Jim Acosta's actions were made to seem abrupt and violent by speeding it up, is especially pernicious. "The content isn't as sophisticated and doesn't take a programmer or AI software for facial swapping," Crittenden said. "It's easier to accomplish and to proliferate, perhaps even harder to detect, which means there could be more of it. It could spread quickly and easily." Depending on how often a video is copied or shared, even taking down the original post leaves iterations to spread. "The creator isn't going to pull it back and the platforms aren't liable so there's no obligation to even alert users there's a false video. Unless there's violence, of course."

Nonnecke said social media platforms are providing CITRIS with data and actual deepfakes that will allow researchers to identify model features. Errors in videos already offer clues. The speaker in a deepfake will appear strange: for example, mouth patterns and timing may not match words. Another simple detection approach is algorithms designed to flag videos that suddenly go viral. "Why did that happen?" Nonnecke asked. "Shocking content? Look at those first and decide if it's true or not."

She called California's new law admirable, but only "a baby step." As detection technology improves, it chases a moving target. Voice- and face-matching technology are developing rapidly. "If I get a call or Skype sounding or looking like my mother asking for my Social Security number, I might give it to her and then find out it wasn't my mother," Nonnecke said. People with limited resources are especially vulnerable. "People who don't have the means to have a software plugin to put on a device to detect deepfakes; yes, they might not be able to afford protection."

Crittenden believes that CITRIS can have the greatest impact by asking researchers and stakeholders to focus on ethical practices, offering control and detection recommendations to social media companies and the public, disseminating materials to politicians and legislative entities, and teaching digital literacy to students and consumers. Healthy skepticism and critical-thinking skills when reading online are low-tech techniques anyone can apply immediately.

Nonnecke believes citizens must weigh in on the debate by discussing artificial intelligence with state and federal legislators and supporting digital ethics training for future programmers and engineers. People opposed to control of deepfakes out of concern for free speech a legitimate concern must better understand the difference between hateful or deceptive content and satire or parody, she believes. "Overall, there should be more tech ethics training, because all fields require a foundation of ethical practice in technology, not just STEM."

Tightening up loopholes in AB 730 timing, misplaced responsibility, and inadequate remedies are legislative next steps, she said.

But until government adequately responds to the crisis, she said, it helps to understand and anticipate deeply biological, human behavior. "We're poised to believe things we can see, like videos," she said. "If you see something shocking, you have a propensity to pay attention to it. Biologically, we're primed to pay attention to scary things that might harm us. And there's heuristics: the more frequently we see something, the more you think it's true.

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Researchers Into 'Deepfakes' Highlight Failings of New California Legislation - East Bay Express

Human Behavior

How to be wrong – The Outline

A noncomprehensive list of unimportant things Ive been profoundly wrong about, and why: the movie Prometheus (thought the trailer looked amazing); the Super Bowl chances of the 2016-17 New England Patriots (assumed the Atlanta Falcons could hold onto a 28-3 lead); the likelihood Brock Lesnar would defeat the Undertaker at Wrestlemania 30 (the Undertaker was undefeated at Wrestlemania up until that point, Lesnars momentum seemed lackluster); the merit of the Porches album Pool (I dont know); the box office potential of Justice League despite the bad reviews (comic book fans love slop); the capacity of my slow cooker to fit a hunk of pork shoulder I wanted to make for a 2018 barbecue (I eyeballed it, it seemed fine); the quality of the chicken parmesan at one of my local Italian restaurants (how hard is chicken parm?); the potency of a marijuana vaporizer pull I took before my Thanksgiving flight back to New York City (I am just an idiot). These are just a few that come to mind, as sadly Ive been wrong about many things in the past, though the corresponding low stakes provided a bulwark against true humiliation because its not really such a big deal if one eats a bad chicken parmesan.

Only a few times have I been profoundly wrong about important things, of which the most consequential is easily the 2016 U.S. presidential election. Despite all my understanding of Donald Trump as a uniquely malicious candidate, and Hillary Clinton as a uniquely flawed one (in the context of American politics, and her particular opponent), I was nonetheless confident beyond any possible doubt that the electorate would do the right thing, and choose relative normalcy (by historical standards, at least) over certain depravity. Im sure I expressed this multiple times over the course of the campaigning, but specifically remember one such affirmation a few days before the election, when my cousin asked me if I thought Trump had any shot, to which I replied: No, absolutely not, theres no chance, with the assuredness of a man who thinks hes about to eat a decent chicken parmesan.

In the wake of the final results, what I remember just as acutely as the shock (over the result) and the despair (over what the results would likely lead to), was an overwhelming sense of wrongness. I had casually invested all my powers of computation and logic in predicting a result that was laughably incorrect; it was as if, without looking, Id said the sky is blue, no shit, its a sunny and gorgeous day, youd have to be the dumbest person alive to think it isnt and immediately tilted my head upwards to find it was neon yellow. My wrongness was so comprehensive that I felt my understanding of American politics was permanently unmoored, that I could probably not ever predict anything confidently in that realm for the rest of my life without triple and quadruple-checking it, and even then qualifying it with a well, maybe.

Naively, I assumed that everyone in the country whod also gotten it wrong at least the Hillary voters in my orbit would experience a similar moment of humility, and capitulate to the possibility that their future certainties would be just as fundamentally flawed, which would make everyone more thoughtful and generous as a result. This has not happened, another wrong prediction on my end. One reason is that some of the people whod gotten it wrong hadnt been as wrong; theyd consciously or subconsciously allotted some possibility that Trump could win, and prepared themselves for the body blow, which made them feel relatively informed when compared with guileless rubes like me. Another, more universal reason, is the human tendency toward adopting confidence despite the opposing evidence. Think about all of the people in your life, and how quickly even the intelligent ones assume theyre right pretty much all of the time now remember how the dumbasses behave. Plus the fact that there arent many tangible, enforceable penalties for being wrong, which is an invitation to keep doing it.

But still, wouldnt this spirit of humility somewhat inform the 2020 election, given the stakes? Ha ha, absolutely not. Everywhere I look, the same people are repeating the same assumptions to deleterious effect. We can pick up such tendencies in any circle, but lets look at Bernie Sanders. Because I support Sanders, I find myself particularly attuned to opinions about him, especially since I think my reasons for supporting him are fairly logical. Thus I cant help but notice that in every direction, someone is wrong about him. The centrist media underestimates his electoral viability; some of his supporters underestimate their need to build bridges between like-minded voters instead of shouting like assholes at Elizabeth Warren fans; some of his detractors stupidly assume his ultimate goal is the destruction of the Democratic party and thus pledge their support to fucking Pete Buttigieg, or just outright condescend to his political goals; maddeningly, Hillary Clinton seems to partially blame him for losing the 2016 election. You can keep going, and the totality of this wrongness is overwhelming at times.

Still, I continue to support Sanders because I believe his electoral history, ideological directives, and rhetorical approach comprise the best shot at taking down Trump, and also pushing back the forces of corporate greed and naked class warfare responsible for Americas current condition. However, as a matter of practice I just have to consider the possibility Im wrong about this that perhaps all of the possible information really does indicate Biden has the best and realest shot at beating Trump, that perhaps Sanders will be just as ineffectual as his predecessors, that worse, hed just get demolished in a general election. But because we live in the real world, where we must make real decisions with real consequences on a real timeline, the effect of considering this wrongness is not to spiral off into the ether, and tease out every single possibility and their corresponding likelihood of reality, an activity with literally no end in sight. The practical effect of contemplating my wrongness is to consider what Id actually do if I was wrong; how my wrongness would inform my future behavior.

I would hope that, should Sanders lose the nomination, Id avoid the emotional lethargy that followed his defeat in 2016, when I assumed Clinton was a foregone conclusion and thus didnt need my focused support. (Somehow working up enthusiasm for Joe Biden would, I think, be the most magnificent personal development of my lifetime but then again, whats the alternative in that situation?) I would hope that, should Sanders become president and fail to enact any of his ideas, I wouldnt take this as evidence that his leftist ideology was completely inapplicable to American society. I would hope that, should Sanders win the nomination and lose against Trump, that I wouldnt swing back to the actually, we need to get more racist of electoral pragmatists. Id hope to put aside my own saltiness about feeling like a giant dumbass, and continue support and search for the politics that would lead to the best outcome for everyone, not just the one that would satisfy my own ego.

In short, Id hope that my beliefs would not be centered in any need to be right, which is probably the worst motivation for believing in anything. Of course, this desire is the animating factor behind a lot of human behavior, political or otherwise, which is partly what makes following election coverage such a nightmare. Across all the websites and all the cable channels, in the pages of newspaper op-eds and glossy magazines, on social media platforms and obscure blogs, we find hundreds and hundreds of incurious, selfish jerkoffs extolling their wrongness as if it is a virtue, confident in the conclusions theyve arrived at through assumption and ignorance.

This is not only because of that human tendency toward adopting confidence despite the opposing evidence, but a more pernicious truth: that the financial and professional incentives for doggedly pursuing this wrongness are, in fact, quite immense. You can build an entire career on wrongness, staggering from one idiotic position to the next with no consistency or morality, and just keep doing it. Nothing is going to stop you. Think of someone like former Obama adviser Jim Messina, to pick one of a thousand wrong idiots in the public sphere, who went to work for former U.K. prime minister Theresa May ahead of her disastrous 2017 election, and nonetheless still pops up to be more wrong about things like Bernie Sanders despite the evidence that maybe he doesnt know what hes talking about. The gall of this arrogance, to keep barreling ahead in light of such wrongness, is fairly astonishing to me, but its not wholly surprising. Cultivating self-reflection and humility, qualities that make one a worthwhile human being, would also force Messina to admit his expertise is built on a foundation of shit. As he currently functions, at least he can stay employed.

Given such incentives to just keep at it, what can be done about the wrongness of others? At scale, probably nothing. A hoary cliche is that the moral arc of the universe bends toward justice well, thats what the people resisting it also believe. But while I have been wrong about many things, Ive never been wrong about the need to forge more meaningful connections between people, personal and political and otherwise, and that truth fuels me even when everything else seems confusing. In general, I think we and here I speak for everyone could stand to be a little more comfortable with exploring the potential of our own wrongness, not just because life is so vast and unknowable (though, yes), but because acknowledging our wrongness allows us to tunnel through into the new reality where, hopefully, we can be a little bit more right, about ourselves and each other. If not this time, then maybe the next, because one can only be wrong for so long.

The rest is here:
How to be wrong - The Outline