FLORHAM PARK, N.J. -- The New York Jets used to be good. Oh yes, they were hot stuff in 2010, when they reached the AFC Championship Game for the second year in a row. They had a larger-than-life coach in Rex Ryan, who approached every game as a schoolyard brawl -- and he had the roster to back him up.
The Jets haven't left that schoolyard, though now they're being taunted and shunned, not good enough to get into any of the games.
The bully has been geekified.
After six straight years out of the playoffs, three seasons with double-digit losses, two regime changes and one year of Tim Tebow, the Jets are regarded by some experts as the worst team in the NFL. Expectations are at an all-time low. So low that members of the 1996 Jets, who finished a franchise-worst 1-15, are getting asked by friends if the current team could pull a '96. It's not far-fetched, considering they're not favored in a single game this season, according to ESPN's FPI.
Team officials say they have a long-term plan to become contenders again. Clearly, the focus is beyond this season. In a 20-minute interview this week with WFAN radio, general manager Mike Maccagnan used the phrase "going forward" a total of 28 times. Coach Todd Bowles has told players to stop talking about last season, a 5-11 disaster that left a fractured locker room.
Since the almost-Super Bowl run in 2010, the Jets are 41-55, the worst record in the AFC East and 24th in the league. As they look to the future, we'll take a moment to analyze how a once-prospering team has slipped into one of the longest postseason slumps in its star-crossed history.
It starts at the top
In 17 years under Woody Johnson's ownership, the Jets are eight games under .500. As Bill Parcells used to say, "You are what your record says you are." In Johnson's case, it's mediocrity.
His lack of conviction on football matters has thrust the franchise into an ever-changing approach to hirings and talent procurement. The most successful franchises adhere to a consistent philosophy, creating an identity and a culture. The Jets? They zig and zag more than an elite open-field runner.
Johnson has gone through periods of big spending and bold acquisitions (Brett Favre and Tebow), but he also has preached a methodical, draft-based approach to constructing the roster. He went from an aggressive, deal-making general manager (Mike Tannenbaum) to a passive, slow builder (John Idzik) to Maccagnan, who has demonstrated both traits.
As for his head coaches, Johnson has created a pendulum. He started with a players coach (Herm Edwards), turned to a disciplinarian (Eric Mangini), went back to a players coach (Ryan) and back to a disciplinarian (Bowles). One thing they have in common is their defensive-minded coaches, but that's curious, because of the team's perennial struggles on offense and inability to develop a franchise quarterback.
Mangini, for one, felt he had the franchise moving in the right direction, saying, "I know when I left there, that team was really good and they were disciplined and they had high character and they knew how to work." But he got fired when the team collapsed down the stretch of a 9-7 season in 2008, in large part because Favre's arm was injured.
Johnson has hired nine head coaches and general managers, none of whom had previous experience in his job. His biggest blunder was pairing Ryan and Idzik, a bad marriage that created a toxic environment at One Jets Drive. They had only one thing in common: Their fathers were former Jets assistant coaches. The two-year union set the franchise back years.
After six years on Ryan's loose ship, which produced many choppy moments, Johnson bought into the understated Bowles-Maccagnan tandem and went all-in with a win-now approach. The combined cash payroll in 2015 and 2016 was $331 million, third-highest in the league, according to Spotrac. With an old team, they missed the playoffs again and again, prompting an unprecedented roster overhaul. Rival executives were surprised by the radical change, saying they expected it to occur in Year 1, not Year 3.
Perhaps this time Johnson will stay committed to the youth movement. He made a strong statement in June, when he pulled rank and instructed his football people to release David Harris and Eric Decker, sources said. The moves sent shock waves through the building and were seen as salary dumps, a transparent attempt to save money ($13 million) while positioning the Jets for a high pick in 2018.
"If you want to go to the promised land, you have to go in a certain direction," Johnson said during the offseason. "I think this is a direction we've never tried in the 17 years I've been associated with the Jets. We've never gone this way."
Translation: We haven't succeeded with anything else, so why not take a shot?
By the way, Johnson will be living in the United Kingdom for the next three years as the U.S. ambassador, which means he can avoid a first-hand view of a painful rebuild.
Looking for the next Broadway Joe
The Jets haven't sent a quarterback to the Pro Bowl since Favre in 2008, and the only reason he made it was because ... well, he's Brett Favre. The single greatest reason for the team's decline is the abominable play at quarterback. From 2011-16, they ranked 29th in Total QBR (45.3), as they've gone from Mark Sanchez to Geno Smith to Ryan Fitzpatrick to (probably) Josh McCown, spanning three regimes.
Sanchez fizzled after a promising start, Smith got punched out by one of his teammates and Fitzpatrick, after a career year in 2015, imploded after the most bizarre contract dispute in recent NFL history.
The Jets have drafted six quarterbacks since 2009, one more than the Cleveland Browns, for crying out loud.
Hoping to find The One, theyve tapped into different profiles -- the charismatic leader (Sanchez), the big arm (Smith) and two projects (Christian Hackenberg and Bryce Petty). They also went outside the box -- way, way outside -- when they traded for Tebow in 2012.
The results? Uh, lets just say the Jets know how to pick future ESPN college football analysts (see: Tebow and Greg McElroy, a 2011 draft pick).
Im jealous, I never had a quarterback like you, as Rex Ryan, now an ESPN analyst, tells Tampa Bay Buccaneers star Jameis Winston in this weeks episode of Hard Knocks.
One of the Jets problems is they dont know how to develop quarterbacks. They rush them into the lineup (Sanchez and Smith) and never give them a chance to get comfortable in the same system. Theyre on their fifth offensive coordinator in the past six years, stunting the players growth with constant upheaval. In contrast, Tom Brady has been in the same system for 18 years.
The new hope is Hackenberg, a second-round pick in 2016. Unlike past regimes, the current administration is exercising patience, bringing him along at a glacial pace. Opposing scouts suspect its out of necessity, not by choice.
Hes never really been able to put it together since his special year in college [2013], said an AFC scout, speaking on the condition of anonymity.
Chances are the Jets will be in the quarterback market again next offseason. League insiders say Johnson, always enamored of star power at the position, has his eye on next years draft crop, which includes Sam Darnold, Josh Allen and Josh Rosen.
Hence, the Suck for Sam campaign among Jets fans.
Feeling a cool draft
The Jets have only eight of their own first- and second-round picks on the roster, and theres a reason for that: lousy drafting.
In many ways, the teams current swoon can be traced to the fruitless drafts from 2012-14. Of the 27 picks over the three-year span, only six remain on the roster -- three starters among them. First-round picks Quinton Coples and Dee Milliner are out of the league, and Calvin Pryor was shipped out. Intriguingly, the New England Patriots' top picks from those years -- Chandler Jones, Jamie Collins (second round) and Dominique Easley -- no longer are on the roster, but they traded Jones and Collins, receiving drafts picks in return.
Instead of having those players form the heart of the roster, the Jets have a huge void of middle-aged talent. It would be crippling for any organization, let alone one without an elite quarterback that can elevate those around him.
Theres no depth and no star power. Only one pick in the past 10 drafts has been selected to multiple Pro Bowls -- Darrelle Revis, a first-round choice in 2007. Leonard Williams (first round, 2015) is on his way to a stellar career, but you cant win a championship by drafting a star defender every decade.
Theyve used nine consecutive first-round picks on defensive players, dating to 2010 -- an utterly mind-boggling trend when you consider their offensive struggles. Their second-round history is enough to make Jets fans nauseous. The last one to make the Pro Bowl (not counting special teams) was Mark Gastineau, drafted in 1979.
In recent years, the Jets have employed different draft philosophies. Theyve drafted for need and best available. Theyve stockpiled picks and traded them away. Theyve tried it all, with minimal success.
If you cant draft, you cant win, a former general manager said. That explains why the Jets are where they are.
A Patriots obsession
It goes back to 1997 and 1998, when the Jets swiped future Hall of Famers Parcells and Curtis Martin, respectively, from the Patriots. The fascination was renewed by Ryan, who famously pledged that he had never kiss Bill Belichicks Super Bowl rings. (P.S.: He pretty much did.)
The obsession surfaced again in 2015, when the Jets reacquired Revis (and got busted for tampering) and based their offseason plan on trying to neutralize the Patriots high-powered passing attack.
Maccagnan, in his first year as GM, bought an entire secondary, bringing in Revis, Antonio Cromartie, Buster Skrine and Marcus Gilchrist. Maccagnans boss, Johnson, was giddy, thinking the Jets had weakened the Patriots by luring Revis back to their side.
Some teams acquire players to compete with a particular team, like Golden State signing Kevin Durant to take down Cleveland, the AFC scout said. I think the Jets, with Mike and Todd coming in, were trying to get guys to help them beat New England.
The Jets learned a hard and expensive lesson. They burned $39 million on Revis, whose skills had eroded appreciably. Cromartie lasted a year, Gilchrist two. Only Skrine remains from that wild spending spree. Instead of creating their own identity, the Jets have wasted time trying to copycat the Patriots.
"They don't have [an identity] anymore," a former Jets player said. "They lost it when they kicked Rex out the door."
Maccagnan & Co. tried to storm the Evil Empire, but they were thwarted at the gate. Now, two years later, the gap between the teams is larger than ever.
Link:
Anatomy of a collapse: How Jets turned into the NFL's worst team ... - ESPN (blog)